SASKATCHEWAN

[FEBRUARY 25, 2016]

EMBARGOED UNTIL: 6 AM CST, FEBRUARY 25, 2016

PRINT EXCLUSIVE: POSTMEDIA NETWORK INC.
Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 1,579 Saskatchewan residents by Smart IVR on
February 23, 2016. A mixture of landlines and cell phones were surveyed. Margin of error: +/2.45%, 19 times out of 20. Regional margins of error: Regina: +/-4.15%; Saskatoon: +/-4.25%;
rest of Saskatchewan: +/-4.38%; 19 times out of 20. Results were weighed by geography,
age and gender based on the 2011 Canadian Census.

A2
"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright.
The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished
with full and proper credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.

NDP CONTINUES UPWARD TREND, SK PARTY STILL LEADS

February 25, 2016 (Toronto, ON) A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll nd the Saskatchewan Party continues
to lead in Saskatchewan but the NDP have continued to trend upward another 2%. The
Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.45%, 19 times out of 20.
Among all voters he Saskatchewan Party is down to 46% (-2) while the NDP is now at 30% (+2).
The Saskatchewan party still holds a big 16 point lead among all voters said Quito Maggi, President of
Mainstreet Research. Their lead has narrowed to just 8 percentage points in Regina and 3 percentage
points in Saskatoon but they lead handily outside urban centres.
The Saskatchewan party is on solid footing on the economy however which bodes well for their general
election prospects, 51% of Saskatchewanians believe they are the best party for the economy.
The Saskatchewan NDP continues to trend upwards and we have seen a modest bounce for the provincial
Liberals here as well. This is to be expected as the election draws nearer and voters begin to look at all
options. However the economic situation and Walls prole on western economic issues on a national level
will be in the way of signicant gains for the opposition parties. 53% of Saskatchewan residents are
optimistic about their own personal nances - these are solid numbers considering the pressures the
province is currently undergoing.
It will take a lot to take down Brad Wall, even with this recent tightening there is a long way to go. As the
election campaign approaches, he remains in the drivers seat, nished Maggi.
About Mainstreet Research
Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of
government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public
opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British
Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling rm
in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only
polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.
-30Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
For more information: David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca

A3

If a provincial election were held today which party would you support?

55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Oct 6

Jan 4
SK Party

NDP

SASKATCHEWAN PARTY LED BY BRAD WALL

NDP LED BY CAM BROTEN
LIBERAL PARTY LED BY DARRIN LAMOUREUX
GREEN PARTY LED BY VICTOR LAU
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE
SASKATCHEWAN PARTY LED BY BRAD WALL
NDP LED BY CAM BROTEN
LIBERAL PARTY LED BY DARRIN LAMOUREUX
GREEN PARTY LED BY VICTOR LAU
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE

Feb 11
Liberal

Green

18-34
43%
29%
8%
5%
15%
345

Feb 23
UD

35-49 50-64 65+ Male Female

46%
46%
52% 48% 44%
30%
33%
26% 25%
33%
9%
7%
9%
12%
5%
3%
2%
2%
3%
3%
13%
11%
11%
11%
14%
353
351
530 778
801
Regina Saskatoon Rest of SK
SK
39%
40%
51%
46%
31%
37%
26%
30%
6%
7%
10%
8%
8%
2%
1%
3%
15%
14%
12%
13%
554
529
496
1579

A4

If a provincial election were held today which party would you support? (DECIDED OR LEANING)

60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Oct 6

Jan 4
SK Party

NDP

SASKATCHEWAN PARTY LED BY BRAD WALL

NDP LED BY CAM BROTEN
LIBERAL PARTY LED BY DARRIN LAMOUREUX
GREEN PARTY LED BY VICTOR LAU
SAMPLE

SASKATCHEWAN PARTY LED BY BRAD WALL

NDP LED BY CAM BROTEN
LIBERAL PARTY LED BY DARRIN LAMOUREUX
GREEN PARTY LED BY VICTOR LAU
SAMPLE

Feb 11
Liberal

18-34
49%
34%
11%
6%
308

Feb 23

Green

35-49
52%
34%
11%
4%
330
SK
52%
34%
10%
4%
1456

UD

50-64
51%
37%
9%
2%
318

65+
58%
29%
11%
2%
500

Male Female
53%
51%
30% 38%
13%
7%
4%
3%
644
812

Regina Saskatoon Rest of SK

45%
45%
57%
37%
42%
30%
9%
9%
12%
9%
4%
2%
503
494
459

A5

And which party are you leaning towards voting for?

13%

14%

60%
10%

4%

SK Party

NDP

Liberal

Green

UD

A6

In your opinion, which party do you think would do a better job of managing the provinces nances?

15%

6%

3%
51%

25%

SK Party

NDP

SASKATCHEWAN PARTY LED BY BRAD WALL

NDP LED BY CAM BROTEN
LIBERAL PARTY LED BY DARRIN LAMOUREUX
GREEN PARTY LED BY VICTOR LAU
UNDECIDED

SASKATCHEWAN PARTY LED BY BRAD WALL

NDP LED BY CAM BROTEN
LIBERAL PARTY LED BY DARRIN LAMOUREUX
GREEN PARTY LED BY VICTOR LAU
UNDECIDED

Liberal

18-34
59%
18%
5%
6%
13%

Green

35-49
46%
27%
2%
9%
16%
SK
51%
25%
3%
6%
15%

UD

50-64
47%
31%
2%
6%
14%

65+ Male Female

54% 55%
48%
24% 20% 30%
1%
3%
2%
4%
9%
4%
16% 13%
16%

Regina Saskatoon Rest of SK

47%
41%
57%
30%
36%
19%
8%
2%
1%
5%
5%
7%
10%
17%
15%

A7

Thinking about the next 12 months, would you say you feel optimistic
or pessimistic about your own familys nancial situation?

14%

53%
32%

OPTIMISTIC
PESSIMISTIC
NOT SURE

OPTIMISTIC
PESSIMISTIC
NOT SURE

18-34
47%
35%
18%

35-49
55%
37%
8%

SK
53%
32%
14%

50-64
57%
26%
16%

65+
55%
29%
16%

Male Female
59%
48%
28%
36%
13%
16%

Regina Saskatoon Rest of SK

48%
52%
56%
40%
36%
28%
13%
12%
16%

A8

Thinking about the next 12 months, would you say you feel optimistic
or pessimistic about the state of Saskatchewans economy?

14%

41%

45%

OPTIMISTIC
PESSIMISTIC
NOT SURE

OPTIMISTIC
PESSIMISTIC
NOT SURE

18-34
37%
51%
13%

35-49
44%
48%
9%

SK
41%
45%
14%

50-64
40%
43%
17%

65+ Male Female

48% 44% 39%
32% 43% 46%
19% 13%
15%

Regina Saskatoon Rest of SK

39%
37%
44%
48%
50%
41%
13%
12%
15%

A9

If a provincial election were held today which party would you support?
Saskatchewan Party led by Brad Wall
NDP led by Cam Broten
Green Party led by Victor Lau
Liberal Party led by Darrin Lamoureux
Undecided
And which Party are you leaning towards voting for?
Saskatchewan Party led by Brad Wall
NDP led by Cam Broten
Green Party led by Victor Lau
Liberal Party led by Darrin Lamoureux
Undecided
In your opinion, which party do you think would do a better job of managing the provinces nances?
Saskatchewan Party led by Brad Wall
NDP led by Cam Broten
Green Party led by Victor Lau
Liberal Party led by Darrin Lamoureux
Undecided
Thinking about the next 12 months, would you say you feel optimistic
or pessimistic about the state of Saskatchewans economy?
Optimistic
Pressimistic
Not Sure
Thinking about the next 12 months, would you say you feel optimistic
or pessimistic about your own familys nancial situation?
Optimistic
Pressimistic
Not Sure

ONLY WE
CALLED
THE
LIBERAL
MAJORITY.

I recommend "Raiders of the Lost Campaign Arc," released Oct. 18, because its an interview
with a pollster that everyone who follows politics should hear. Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Public
Research, was the only pollster I saw call the Liberal majority with such condence, a week
before we voted.
Maggi also has the distinction of being the guy who predicted the BC Liberals would win in 2013,
in deance of the majority of the polls.
His technique involves picking a true bellwether riding and polling it thoroughly. His explanation
for how he does it is well worth a listen and should be required research for anyone running a
political campaign. - Shannon Rupp, The Tyee, November 4th, 2015
Mainstreet Research | 1322255B Queen Street East
| Toronto | Ontario | M4E 1G3 | Canada

Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian
public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal
government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has
been the most accurate polling rm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral
election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority
government in the 2015 federal election.

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