What Trump might do if he loses the election: From pardoning cronies to sabotaging the transition
Following his hospitalisation from the coronavirus, Donald Trump has spent the weeks leading up to Election Day in front of thousands of his supporters at marathon rallies, promising a “red wave” by doubling down on his vision of carnage and grievances against his political and cultural opponents.
And if he loses, Joe Biden inherits a sagging economy and mass unemployment, a public health crisis and a flood of executive orders and other administration policies he’ll aim to reverse.
Watchdog groups have meanwhile braced for the days that follow 3 November – in the event the president does concede and walk out of the White House in January – and considered how he’ll frame his legacy as 45th president and the first lame duck to lose re-election since George HW Bush.
“Whatever he does will be meant to undermine the incoming Biden administration,” Rajan Menon said in The Nation. “That includes working to make the climb as steep as possible for the rival he’s depicted as a semi-senile incompetent. He will want only one thing: to see his successor fail.”
‘Sabotaging’ the transition
The president’s transition documents that are required to be submitted to Congress were late, thin, and the subject of lawsuits for their release.
Mr Trump has already made clear that he will depend on the US Supreme Court’s conservative majority to rule in his favour following an avalanche of lawsuits against mail-in ballots, and he has not been able to guarantee a peaceful transition of power, should he lose his re-election, suggesting that the president is prepared to “sabotage” the transition process, said Donald K Sherman, deputy director of nonpartisan watchdog organisation Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW).
The organisation has filed hundreds of lawsuits against the administration, from seeking records of forced sterilsation and human rights abuses at immigration detention centres to violations of the Foreign Emoluments Clause, which bars the president and federal officials from taking gifts or payments from foreign governments.
“It seems clear Trump is trying to get everybody and anybody in his administration to help him,” including Attorney General William Barr and the Department of Justice, he said.
“We’re talking about a Justice Department stepping in” to strike down a defamation suit from E Jean Carroll, who has accused the president of raping her in the 1990s, Mr Sherman said.
“Nothing suggests it won’t stop them from trying again.”
The Trump campaign has fused with the White House, which the Office of Special Counsel began investigating after Secretary of State Mike Pompeo delivered a speech from Jerusalem during the 2020 Republican National Convention.
But the president’s reliance on a national security apparatus to launch attacks against Mr Biden and Democrats “really raise concerns that either if the president is contesting the election or refuses to accept the results, or even if he does accept the results, the national security and diplomatic functions at the highest level of government have been politicised in such a way that they’re not going to ensure a smooth transition of power,” Mr Sherman said.
Destroying records
The Trump administration has been repeatedly condemned for its mishandling and destruction of records, with good government groups and congressional oversight committees warning the National Archives and Records Administration that critical documents – including the deaths and conditions of migrants in custody of Immigration and Customs Enforcement as well as water quality reports from the Environmental Protection Agency – could be in jeopardy.
Staffers reportedly have even had to tape together paperwork that the president ripped up, violating the Presidential Records Act, which requires the preservation of the “the activities, deliberations, decisions, and policies that reflect the performance of the president’s constitutional, statutory, or other official or ceremonial duties.”
“Not only have they not been transparent, they have engaged in misconduct if they have something to hide,” Mr Sherman said. “If he loses, there could be attempts to destroy federal records of potential malfeasance and crimes”
Members of the administration have also relied on social media accounts and messaging apps for government communication, prompting CREW to urge Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey to preserve accounts and messages on the platform.
In a statement, CREW director Noah Bookbinder said that “by preserving President Trump’s Twitter account, and those of his staff, the company would play a vital and necessary role in ensuring that the historical record of the Trump administration is accessible to the American public, Congress, and other government institutions for years to come.”
Self-dealing
While the president has publicly announced his presidential salary donations to various government agencies, he has refused to divest from his business empire, which has continued to rake in millions of dollars each year.
Mr Trump made $446m last year and $434m in 2018, according to financial disclosure documents from the Office of Government Ethics.
Financial disclosures also revealed that the president's daughter Ivanka Trump and son-in-law Jared Kushner, who also hold White House positions, earned at least $36m last year.
While the president’s licensing and hotel businesses have faded, his golf club and resorts have made hundreds of millions of dollars within his first few years in office.
His Trump National Doral golf resort in Miami, Florida collected $228m 2017 to 2019, and his properties in Scotland and Ireland and his Mar-a-Lago headquarters have collected nearly $200m total within that time.
The president has been “funneling government money into businesses”, Mr Sherman said, as taxpayers have paid more than $2.5m at his Mar-a-Lago resort and other Trump businesses since 2017, according to The Washington Post.
CREW found that 150 foreign government officials have paid visits to Trump properties since he has been in office.
His final days in office could prompt a “mad dash” for the president to host government events at his properties, milking the last of his government cash cow, Mr Sherman said.
His presidency has signaled a new era for the Trump family and his relentless grift, one that sees its empire as a taxpayer-subsidised dynasty, with his children in a line of succession.
“This is somebody who puts his name on everything,” Mr Sherman said. “What regulations, what executive orders, what kind of policies do the administration set out in these last few days and how do they intersect with Trump’s business?”
He added: “If it ends up being the last days of the Trump administration, he will always be someone who has his eye on the business – ‘How can I use the power I still have to set up my business before I leave?’
Pardons
The president has commuted the sentence of campaign adviser and longtime Republican operative Roger Stone following his campaign-related felony convictions, while the Department of Justice has forced out federal prosecutors close to investigations involving the president.
Mr Trump has rewarded loyalists – from Arizona’s Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio to right-wing filmmaker Dinesh D’Souza – and headline-grabbing legacy pardons, like suffragette Susan B Anthony and Alice Marie Johnson, at the urgency of Kim Kardashian.
His final acts could bail out his convicted allies still serving out sentences following prosecutions for 2016 campaign crimes, or preemptively pardon loyalists, family members and even himself before he leaves office.
“Clemency, as structured by the Constitution, has no check or balance other than politics,” said Mark Osler, a former federal prosecutor and Robert and Marion Short Distinguished Professor of Law at the University of St. Thomas. “And, in yet another political cycle, we are utterly failing to employ that lone check on this power of kings. Our intense focus on clemency should happen in the heat of the campaign rather than once it is over.”
Members of Congress and watchdog groups like Keep Our Republic and the Brennan Center for Justice at the New York University School of Law have demanded that presidential authorities and sweeping executive “emergency” powers be investigated ahead of Election Day.
But there remain others within the Trump circle likely asking for favours, both in and outside of prison, that could shed light on the scope of investigations and potential charges awaiting him once he leaves office.
“Who are the people we don’t know?” Mr Sherman said. “We don’t know all the details or all the players. Who he pardons, if this is the end of the road for him, will reveal some information or provide some bread crumbs if not affirmative clues as to who’s involved.”
There’s a chance – in that it is a thing that could happen – that the president will resign to receive a pardon from newly minted President Mike Pence, but that would require Mr Trump stepping down more than a moment before inauguration day on 21 January.
