2014 Baseball Forecaster: And Encyclopedia of Fanalytics

RON SHANDLER’S 2014

BASEBALL

FORECASTER

AND ENCYCLOPEDIA OF FANALYTICS

Copyright © 2013, USA TODAY Sports Media Group LLC.

No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the publisher, Triumph Books LLC, 814 North Franklin Street, Chicago, Illinois 60610.

Triumph Books and colophon are registered trademarks of Random House, Inc.

This book is available in quantity at special discounts for your group or organization. For further information, contact:

Triumph Books LLC

814 North Franklin Street

Chicago, Illinois 60610

(312) 337-0747

www.triumphbooks.com

Printed in U.S.A.

eISBN: 978-1-62368-750-2

Rotisserie League Baseball is a registered trademark of the Rotisserie League Baseball Association, Inc.

Statistics provided by Baseball Info Solutions

Cover design by Brent Hershey

Front cover photograph by Gary A. Vasquez/USA TODAY Sports Images

Author photograph by Kevin Hurley

Ron Shandler’s

BASEBALL

FORECASTER

Editors

Ray Murphy

Brent Hershey

Associate Editor

Brandon Kruse

• • • • • •

Technical Wizard

Rob Rosenfeld

Design

Brent Hershey

Data and Charts

Matt Cederholm

Player Commentaries

Dave Adler

Ryan Bloomfield

Rob Carroll

Matt Cederholm

Brent Hershey

Ray Murphy

Stephen Nickrand

Kristopher Olson

Josh Paley

Brian Rudd

Jock Thompson

Rod Truesdell

Todd Zola

Research and Articles

Bob Berger

Patrick Davitt

Patrick DiCaprio

Bill Macey

David Martin

Jock Thompson

Todd Zola

Prospects

Rob Gordon

Jeremy Deloney

Tom Mulhall

Injuries

Rick Wilton

Acknowledgments

Producing the Baseball Forecaster has been a team effort for a number of years now; the list of credits to the left is where the heavy lifting gets done. On behalf of Ron, Brent, and Ray, our most sincere thanks to each of those key contributors.

We are just as grateful to the rest of the BaseballHQ.com staff, who do the yeoman’s work in populating the website with 12 months of incredible online content: Andy Andres, Matt Beagle, Dan Becker, Alex Beckey, Brian Brickley, Ed DeCaria, Doug Dennis, Matt Dodge, Greg Fishwick, Neil FitzGerald, Colby Garrapy, Matt Gelfand, Scott Gellman, Phil Hertz, Joe Hoffer, Tom Kephart, Chris Lee, Chris Mallonee, Troy Martell, David Martin, Scott Monroe, Craig Neuman, Harold Nichols, Frank Noto, Greg Pyron, Nick Richards, Vlad Sedler, Mike Shears, Peter Sheridan, Skip Snow, Jeffrey Tomich, Michael Weddell and Joshua Weller.

Thank you to our behind-the-scenes troopers: our technical dynamic duo of Mike Krebs and Rob Rosenfeld; and to Lynda Knezovich, the patient and kind voice at the other end of your phone or email inquiries.

Thank you to all our industry colleagues, a truly impressive group. They are competitors, but they are also colleagues working to grow this industry, which is never a more evident than at our annual First Pitch Arizona gathering each November.

Thank you to Dave Morgan, Chris Pirrone, Dan Fogarty and the entire team at USA Today Sports Media Group.

Thank you for all the support from the folks at Triumph Books and Action Printing.

And of course, thank you, readers, for your interest in what we all have to say. Your kind words, support and (respectful) criticism move us forward on the fanalytic continium more than you know. We are grateful for your readership.

From Ray Murphy Teaming up with Ron and Brent, as well as the remarkable BHQ staff, is what keeps this job from feeling like work (well, most of the time). Back at home, my wife Jennifer has always been extremely patient with my fantasy baseball activities. I actually mentioned the topic on our first date, and somehow got a second date. Since then, she has been a true partner; always helping me find a way to take the next step on this path. Our twin girls, Grace and Bridget, missed out on a bunch of daddy/daughter time this fall, but I’ll make that up to them.

From Brent Hershey When asked about my full-time job in fantasy baseball, my response is that I feel quite fortunate. Not only for writing about a game, but also working with great people. In addition to the BHQ staff, thank you, Ron, for your grace and integrity in showing a rookie the ropes. No hazing here. And Ray, thanks for your insight and collaborative spirit. Here’s to many successful years ahead.

Most importantly, thanks to the three women in my midst. Though I appreciate your supportive listening to my rant about Marlon Byrd and BABIP (wife Lorie), your excitement in tagging out a runner at home plate (daughter Dillon), and your insistence that we stay for all nine innings (daughter Eden), your gifts away from the diamond are truly inspiring and bring me balance. Thank you.

From Ron Shandler Mega-thanks to the incredible work done by Ray and Brent. For the first time in over 20 years, I was able to carve out an afternoon to go to an Octoberfest—yay, beer!

In addition to my appreciation for all the above contributors, I always have to thank my ladies. (Take note: you can’t run this organization without a household filled with women.)

Updates: Darielle graduated magna cum laude and moved back home while she looks for theater production/stage-managing work in New York. (Inquiries welcome.) Justina, now a junior, recently performed at Lincoln Center and spent the summer interning with a film scorer in LA. And … Sue and I are building a house in Port St. Lucie! These Mets fans are coming home, sort of.

Thanks to everyone, there are more championships to be won for all of us.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Nightmare

Encyclopedia of Fanalytics

Fundamentals

Batters

Pitchers

Prospects

Gaming

Statistical Research Abstracts

Gaming Research Abstracts

Major Leagues

Batters

Pitchers

Injuries

Prospects

Top Impact Prospects for 2014

Top Japanese Prospects

Major League Equivalents

Leaderboards

Draft Guides

Blatant Advertisements for Other Products

Nightmare

by Ron Shandler

I drive up to the Washington D.C./Baltimore area about once a month during the baseball season. It’s a four-hour trip from my home in southwest Virginia but it’s worth it to catch some Nats or O’s action, or occasional minor league games in places like Bowie and Potomac.

The trip is cathartic for me; windows down, radio blasting. Sometimes it’s classic jazz; more often it’s sports talk. I do it alone; sometimes I even take in the games alone. It helps me clear my head.

For years, I’ve looked forward to these outings. This year was different.

This year was a nightmare.

It started back in January 2013 when I was developing the program for the First Pitch Forum spring conference series. I had decided that the theme for the event would be Bold Statements.

After playing this game for nearly three decades, I know that fantasy leagues are often won by the team that can uncover that season’s big surprise performance. Our research has shown that the most profitable players have a disproportionate impact on who is going to win your league. In 2013, more than 50% of Jose Fernandez owners finished no lower than 3rd place, and 75% finished no lower than 5th. That’s huge.

The flipside works similarly. Teams that drafted first-round busts like Ryan Braun or Matt Kemp finished in the bottom third of the standings more often than not.

Identifying these players in advance—now, that’s the trick. So the spring forum program was designed to go out on a limb, string together a few conditional possibilities and make some bold statements.

As author Frank Scully once said, Why not go out on a limb? Isn’t that where the fruit is?

To be honest, this is probably the funnest part of forecasting for me. Running routine trend analyses and projecting that Paul Goldschmidt was going to improve or Fernando Rodney was going to fall off is, well, boring. Speculating that Chris Davis would have 40-HR upside and then watching him explode … that is much more fun.

So the First Pitch content developers came up with a bunch of bold statements. We suggested that you stay away from Mariners pitchers (their team ERA did spike from 3.76 in 2012 to 4.31), the saves leader on the Royals might be Luke Hochevar (right idea, wrong conclusion) and the Rockies might challenge for a wild card berth (well, they were in first place as late as May 7). There were a few others.

But the opening statement that led off the conference was the one that drew the most notice. I was the one who wrote and presented this bold statement in all seven cities:

Don’t Draft Mike Trout.

Yes, it was pretty bold to defy common wisdom—and simple logic!—regarding the American League Rookie of the Year and MVP runner-up, but it was not meant to disparage the future superstar. There was no question that Trout was an exceptional player. The question was about his draftability.

After one incredible season, was it reasonable to expect him to repeat that performance? He would have to come close in order to earn back his acquisition cost. Don’t draft Mike Trout meant that the odds were too high that you’d take a loss on your investment. That investment was very expensive—a top 3 pick in snake drafts or $40+ in auctions.

It was a cost/benefit analysis, nothing more.

I presented the case first to a tough home crowd in Los Angeles. They didn’t take me seriously. I then moved on to San Francisco, Chicago and then up the East Coast. As I got deeper and deeper into the conference tour, the arguments grew stronger and stronger for me.

By the end of the tour, I had assembled a long laundry list of reasons why Mike Trout was a terrible investment for 2013. I put them together in an article for BaseballHQ.com and USAToday.com called, 12 Reasons Not to Draft Mike Trout.

The reasons touched on everything from his age to his weight. I discussed his unsustainable batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and home run to fly ball ratio. I compared his performance to others in history and charted his probable ranking in a volatile fantasy draft pool. And after I wrote about the 12 reasons, I found three more and wrote another piece.

Individually, none of the reasons was strong enough to make a case on its own. But together, they created a compelling argument for a significant fall from the upper echelons of 2013 fantasy cheat sheets.

And really, this seemed like the easiest projection I could ever make. A player whose numbers were so far off the charts had to be primed for a massive regression. So I went out on a limb with my multiple arguments, but I really thought that limb was supported by solid steel struts.

Well, the articles created a media firestorm. I was invited onto numerous radio shows to back up my contention. There was a videocast with CBS Sports. Chris Liss of Rotowire.com devoted an entire column to refute each one of my points.

Several discussion threads opened up in the BaseballHQ.com forums, one of which—Trout’s value is plummeting?—generated more than 550 responses and more than 7,500 views. That thread exploded during the period when my laundry list was growing and Trout’s projections were still being tweaked.

By mid-March, Trout had gone through eight spring training games without a home run and just one stolen base. Already there were slight murmurs about the prophecy coming true. I received an email from one enraged Angels fan calling me the devil. Truth.

On March 14, I had tickets to the Angels/White Sox Cactus League game at Diablo Stadium in Tempe, AZ. Tied up with some family business, I arrived late, missing the top of the first inning. When I finally made my way up the stairs and onto the concourse, the very first thing I saw was Mike Trout hitting his first home run.

I laughed. I don’t believe in omens.

Trout wrapped up March with just two home runs and six stolen bases, though he did hit .350. April wasn’t as kind. He opened slowly, going 2 for 11 in his first two games. After 10 games, he was batting only .227. By the end of the month, he was still batting just .261 with two home runs and four steals, a 12-HR/24-SB pace.

Some people were starting to get nervous. I have to admit, I was glued to every Angels boxscore and was getting these slight, intermittent flutters of validation.

That’s when things took a nasty turn.

I decided to write a piece for USA Today, published on April 30. The headline that appeared with the online version was, Trout’s early-season struggles a matter of percentages. The headline in the print edition was a bit more pointed: Trout’s drop not shocking. I don’t write the headlines.

The article itself was straightforward, looking at his current performance indicators as compared to 2012. However, the fact that I chose that topic at that time blew the first rule about small sample sizes. I was too anxious to plant the seeds of victory. Given all the attention to my earlier pieces, I was too giddy to let his April stat line pass without comment.

It defied everything I’ve written about exhibiting excruciating patience.

And well, you know what happened next. Trout exploded, hitting .337 over the remaining five months, with 25 HR and 29 SB. In the process, he set all sorts of offensive records, particularly for someone his age.

As Trout exploded, so did the endless online and media chatter. I became a target for derisive comments up and down the Internet. A week wouldn’t go by without at least a few emails or tweets that would simply say, Nice job projecting Trout or Surrender yet?

And finally, even my monthly trips to D.C. and Baltimore became another knife in my gut.

For you see, every time I drove up Interstate 81 to northern Virginia, I had to pass a sign at exit 156 that always read:

Troutville

Now, I know that sounds silly, but consider:

• Troutville is what some fans call the left field section of Angels Stadium populated by manic Trout fans.

• The Trout Farm is the official moniker of that section. Up Route 311 from Troutville is, in fact, a trout farm.

• Troutville, VA is the only town with that name in the entire United States. Why did it have to be on my route?

• The population of Troutville is only 432 and the area is a mere 0.9 square miles, an absurdly small entity to merit its own interstate exit. Yet it was on my route.

As ridiculous as it seems, that green sign at exit 156 kept silently mocking my every trip last summer. Each time I was looking forward to putting the pedal down to John Coltrane, I had to face the reality of passing this tiny town with the evil name. A town that has the exact same number of residents as its namesake’s on base average this season.

Karma?

Well … maybe.

My nightmare continued to grow more intense with every home run and stolen base that Trout notched in the boxscores. By mid-season, I had privately surrendered and gone into hiding to avoid all my taunters. By the end of the season, I was completely buried.

But the onslaught never let up. On October 1, I tweeted: So much for my Tigers-Reds World Series prediction from last March. Congrats #Pirates! The response was immediate: About as good as your predictions on @Trouty20.

Even as late as the World Series, people were still stumbling over my March handiwork: Wow. I just found this gem by you. Are you gonna take a year off just out of principal?? (sic) #fail.

There is an old German proverb that goes, Lieber ein ende mit schrecken als ein schrecken ohne ende. Roughly translated, it reads, Better to have a horrible ending than to have horrors without end.

So can I wake up now?

Awake

For me, the 2013 season was a bad dream in many respects. Two of my expert league teams finished ranked in double-digits. The other—my experts keeper league team—had been built such that 2013 was my absolute best chance for a title run. I finished third, 14.5 points out.

Mike Trout was on none of my teams. Perhaps I was cursed.

With the season over and with the benefit of conscious retrospect, I have to wonder where I went so far wrong.

The highest goal of forecasting is to make sure the process is sound. We can’t predict the future—only general tendencies—so nailing the process is the best that we can do. Looking back at my list of 15 reasons why Trout should have fallen short of earning his draft value, was the process sound? Were the individual arguments valid? Here is how it all unraveled:

1. Trout’s 2012 power had to be an outlier because he was scouted as a speed prospect. Bryce Harper was the power prospect.

Sound argument? Well, it would not be the first time that scouts were wrong, but the numbers did back it up. Trout averaged 10.5 HRs and 59 stolen bases in his previous two minor league seasons. Harper had hit 17 HRs and 26 SBs in his first pro season and was given a higher ceiling by the scouts.

However, by my establishing that comparison up front, it forced me to be on target with the projections on two players. The fact that both projections failed in opposite directions made the comparison look even worse.

And even though the process was somewhat sound, the argument was flawed. Hanley Ramirez never hit more than 8 HRs in any of his four minor league seasons yet hit 17, 29 and 33 in his first three years in the Majors. (Trout: So there.)

Of course, we can always cherry-pick isolated examples to support or refute any argument.

2. Over the past eight years, only 3% of all 30-HR hitters had fly ball rates as low as Trout’s 33%. His 27% HR/F rate in the second half was also notable (Jose Bautista’s was only 22% in his 54-HR year).

Sound argument? Well, at least a sound observation. The point was that this was not a repeatable feat and thus, his home run total should fade.

But failing to repeat could mean that Trout fell short of 30 HRs or saw his fly ball rate rise. In fact, both happened. Trout’s HR total did drop below 30. His fly ball rate rose from 33% to 35%. His home run to fly ball rate dropped from 22% to a more acceptable 16%.

But the net result was a loss of a just three home runs (though in 30 additional at-bats). Not exactly earth-shattering.

3. Home runs are getting scarcer each year and speed is plentiful, making the big power bats more valuable. If Trout’s power was not for real, then he would have less value as a first-rounder.

Sound argument? Yes, if in fact this trend had continued. As it turned out, speed became scarcer in 2013, thereby leveling the playing field all around. We could not have known that.

But as noted, I was not trying to prove that Trout wasn’t a great ballplayer; I was trying to prove that he did not merit his expected market price on Draft Day. The real question was, how much did his HR output have to drop in order for this to have any relevance? It would have to be a significant drop, and it wasn’t.

So, as long as he remained a 5-category player, he was always going to end up as a first-rounder, especially if he managed to hit over .300. But that .300 average was also something I did not think he could repeat. You see …

4. Trout’s .383 BABIP is typically an unsustainable level. As that regressed, so would his batting average. As his batting average regressed, so would his home run output and stolen base opportunities.

Sound argument? Yes. Solid process, bad result. This domino effect never happened because Trout managed to repeat his elevated BABIP as well as his high batting average.

Rany Jazayerli wrote: The armies of regression from greatness and regression from luck amassed on his doorstep in the spring, and he flicked them aside as if he were Achilles.

You see, others were equally amazed.

Todd Zola wrote: We still don’t know Trout’s baseline BABIP even though we now have two full seasons of data. Many will point to consecutive seasons of a BABIP north of .380 and call it Trout’s established baseline. And they may be right. But the probability of sustaining a career BABIP over .380 is extremely slim.

So we’re still looking for possible regression here. And that domino effect may still be around the corner.

In some ways, I see this in the same light as our analysis of Jeremy Hellickson. For two straight seasons, his ERA far exceeded his skills set. Many analysts began resigning themselves to the possibility that Hellickson had some innate quality that allowed him to consistently overachieve.

Then came 2013’s disaster. The interesting takeaway from Hellickson is that, while his ERA during that three-year span was 2.95, 3.10 and 5.17, his xERA during that time was 4.58, 4.39 and 4.16. His 2013 performance was actually the best skills displayed during that period.

This is not to say that Hellickson is anywhere near the caliber of player that Trout is. It’s just to note that even two seasons may not provide an accurate baseline.

By comparison, it’s important to note that some of Trout’s underlying skills also improved this past year. His contact rate rose from 75 to 77%. His walk rate increased from 11% to 16%. He became more patient and discriminating in the pitches he swung at. That can only lead to even better things, as incomprehensible as that sounds.

So it’s also possible that—like Hellickson—Trout’s skill could continue to improve even if his surface stats remain stable, or even decline.

5. Trout allegedly showed up to camp at 240 pounds. History has shown that players of that girth do not steal bases (think: Billy Butler, also 6-1, 240 lbs.).

Sound argument? I plead the Fifth.

Okay, it is true that players of those dimensions typically do not steal bases. Over the past few years, Matt Kemp and Hanley Ramirez are the only players tipping the scales at even 220 lbs who have stolen as many as 20 bases in a season. So I surmised that it would be unlikely that Trout could repeat his near-50 SB output at 240 pounds.

Of all the arguments in my articles, this was the one that drew the most ire, in good part because we could not verify Trout’s actual weight. As it turned out, whether due to the weight, or batting order position, or planetary alignment, this is the projection that we beat field on.

Trout stole 33 bases. We projected he’d steal 30. All the other leading touts projected 45 and up.

In the end … Questionable process + Good result = Dumb Luck. I’ll take it, though.

6. Trout’s maximum-effort style of play increases the odds that a pulled hamstring or an immovable object (like an outfield wall) could send him to the disabled list.

Sound argument? More of a sound speculation. Many max-effort players face this threat and end up spending time on the DL, but of course it’s not a given.

One interesting observation involves Trout’s drop in defensive skill in 2013. Some surmise that he pulled back on his aggressiveness to avoid injury, thereby decreasing the number of balls he reached. However, I don’t know if that’s anything more than a speculation.

7. Trout had an amazing three months in 2012, but was already exhibiting signs of slowing down as the season progressed. He batted .284 in August and .257 in September.

Sound argument? Sound observation, though not terribly predictive.

Trout actually carried that lethargic performance into April this year. And then he kicked back into gear. And … he slowed down again this past September, batting just .282 that month.

But players are evaluated based on how they perform over six full months. The path they take to get to October can be pretty volatile.

I was looking for a trend in a small data sample. That trend might well have been real. But Trout’s exorbitant numbers in all the other months trumped those late season fades.

8. Opposing teams had all off-season to try to uncover a weakness they could exploit. We had yet to see how well Trout could adjust in year #2. Sophomore slumps are real.

Sound argument? Sure. Talk to Eric Hosmer, or the dozens of players who fail to adjust in season #2 and take one or more years to return to their rookie heroics. It’s no guarantee to occur, but this is a game about adjustments on both sides.

It’s possible that Trout’s sophomore slump began in August 2012 and ended in April 2013. His explosion in May might be a testament to his ability to adjust back. Whatever the case, there have been few opposing pitchers able to neutralize him yet.

9. The 2013 projections calculated by industry touts were typically regressions off of Trout’s 2012 stat line. But 2012 could not be considered a real baseline because it was just a single data point—and likely flawed—so those projections had to be flawed as well.

Sound argument? Sure, theoretically. So now we do have two data points. And they are both equally insane.

10. Trout’s 2012 numbers were historic. With one more SB, he would have been only the third player in major league history to hit 30 HRs and steal 50 bases. The other two were Barry Bonds and Eric Davis, both at age 25. And neither repeated the feat.

Sound argument? Sound observation and reasonable conclusion.

And yes, Trout didn’t repeat the feat. There is no question that his HR and SB totals regressed. The issue is that they didn’t regress nearly as much as expected and other players didn’t rise up into the first round to surpass him.

11. And Trout pulled it off at age 21. His youth could be considered either an advantage or an obstacle. He was at the green end of the growth curve, but 21-year-olds can get over-confident and not respond well to pressure.

Sound argument? Again, an observation from which I was trying to build the case. Trout ended up handling it all with aplomb. What can I say?

12. There were better picks early in the draft. There were far more players with a consistent track record of success.

Sound argument? This was really the crux of the entire argument.

In a normal season, the first round class would be composed of strong, relatively safe commodities. Truth is, many of last March’s first-rounders had some warts. There were injury concerns about Kemp, Albert Pujols and Joey Votto. There were regression concerns about Andrew McCutchen and Buster Posey. Ryan Braun had the PED specter hanging over his head.

Still, I was more willing to take a chance that an established commodity like Kemp or Votto would be healthy than bet on an outlying short-termer to repeat.

And in fact, only five of the 15 projected first-rounders ended up earning their draft slot. That’s a typical result. I thought Trout would have been one of the fallen 10.

In fact, given the overall weakness of the class, Trout could have regressed even more and still merited a high draft pick. You could have lopped off another $10 from his final value and he’d still finish in the top 10. He was that good.

13. Players who earn first round value in any given season have a 66% turnover each year, and players who appear on the list for the first time—as Trout did last year—are only a 14% bet to repeat.

Sound argument? Yes, though this was just more of playing the percentages. Trout ended up being one of the 14%.

It’s our classic reminder that, even when you follow an overwhelming 86% percentage play, you have to be prepared to be wrong 14% of the time.

14. The arguments about Trout’s historical comps were faulty. None of Mickey Mantle, Frank Robinson, Al Kaline, Jimmie Fox or Ted Williams put up the numbers Trout did in their rookie year—or ever.

Sound argument? Yes, this remains true. There are many examples of players hitting the ground running and never letting up. But nobody ever put up the caliber of numbers Trout had in 2012.

Some naysayers went on to compare him to more recent players who had great rookie seasons and never regressed. They wrote, What about Albert Pujols? What about Miguel Cabrera?

What about Ryan Braun?

Um, indeed.

15. And so, you can’t rule out outside help.

Sound argument? Oh heck, who knows?

The PED saga took a sharp turn in 2013. For the first time, Major League Baseball suspended players without them having failed a drug test. Ryan Braun’s dishonesty cast doubt on the integrity of all players throughout the sport. Despite all this, formerly suspended players were still signing lucrative new contracts, diluting the impact of the penalties, and negating the sense of magnitude and consequence that MLB has been trying to sell us for the past decade.

The reasonable conclusion is that the deterrents are insufficient and players are continuing to gain an advantage with PEDs. We don’t know who they are, nor can we accurately measure the statistical gains, but that doesn’t mean they don’t exist. And unfortunately, human nature and logic cast our focus on the outlying performances. Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Alex Rodriguez, and even Braun were all outliers, and all living under the PED cloud.

So you have to at least ask the question: How can a 22-year-old put up numbers over his first two full seasons far better than any other player in the entire history of Major League Baseball?

Yes, maybe he is that good. Maybe we are just spectators to history. But we are living in an era when the question still needs to be asked.

This is what it looked like in the end:

This is and will always be a game about percentage plays. You can follow the bad plays and cash in every once in awhile, but the vast majority of winners will always be the ones who follow the better percentages.

And really, the fact that Trout did defy the percentages in 2013 is not cause for celebration. You can’t just revel in his greatness and proclaim, well, of course he’s that good.

What Trout has done is nothing short of incredible.

Joe Sheehan wrote: "The numbers are astounding. He