Scout's Guide to Motorcycle Racing 2016

Scout’s Guide to Motorcycle Racing 2016

Chris Martin

with

Colin Young & Evan Williams

https://twitter.com/ChrisMartinSBK

cmartin@enginesofextinction.com

Smashwords Edition

Copyright © 2016 Chris Martin

Cover Photo: KTM/Dorna/Brian J Nelson

Also by Chris Martin

Scout’s Guide to MotoGP 2016

Scout’s Guide to Supercross 2016

Scout’s Guide to MotoAmerica 2016

Engines of Extinction: Episode I – The End & The Means

Modern American Snipers: From The Legend to The Reaper – on the Battlefield with Special Operations Snipers (St. Martin’s Press)

Beyond Neptune Spear: The (Open) Secret History of SEAL Team Six, Post-9/11

Shaping the World from the Shadows: The (Open) Secret History of Delta Force, Post-9/11

Contents

Title Page

About This Guide

I. SCOUT’S GUIDE TO SUPERCROSS 2016

1. Ryan Dungey

2. Ken Roczen

3. Eli Tomac

4. Justin Barcia

5. Trey Canard

6. James Stewart

7. Jason Anderson

8. Cooper Webb

9. Cole Seely

10. Chad Reed

11. Weston Peick

12. Marvin Musquin

13. Blake Baggett

14. Davi Millsaps

15. Broc Tickle

16. Dean Wilson

17. Andrew Short

18. Justin Bogle

19. Justin Brayton

20. Adam Cianciarulo

21. Jeremy Martin

22. Malcolm Stewart

23. Wil Hahn

24. Christophe Pourcel

25. Tyler Bowers

On the Outside Looking In

The Skills to Pay the Bills

The Start

Holding a Lead

Coming from Behind

Making Passes

Sprint Speed

Seizing Opportunities

Lap-to-Lap Consistency

Corner Speed

The Whoops

Confidence

Mental Toughness

Experience

Fitness

All-Around Ability

Man and Machine

KTM 450 SX-F

Husqvarna FC 450

Kawasaki KX450F

Yamaha YZ450F

Honda CRF450R

Suzuki RM-Z450

II. SCOUT’S GUIDE TO MOTOGP 2016

1. Jorge Lorenzo

2. Marc Márquez

3. Valentino Rossi

4. Dani Pedrosa

5. Maverick Viñales

6. Andrea Iannone

7. Andrea Dovizioso

8. Bradley Smith

9. Cal Crutchlow

10. Pol Espargaró

11. Danilo Petrucci

12. Aleix Espargaró

13. Álex Rins

14. Scott Redding

15. Jack Miller

16. Johann Zarco

17. Tito Rabat

18. Stefan Bradl

19. Sam Lowes

20. Miguel Oliveira

21. Héctor Barberá

22. Danny Kent

23. Álvaro Bautista

24. Eugene Laverty

25. Loris Baz

Casey Stoner

Yonny Hernández

Skills & Traits

Qualifying Speed

The Start

Immediate Pace

Precision

Corner Entrance

Corner Speed

Corner Exit

Aggressiveness

Confidence

Fighting for Position

Racecraft

Providing Feedback

Beyond the Limits

Inclement Weather

Fitness

X-Factors

Tires

Spec Electronics

2016 Racebikes

2017 Rider Market

III. SCOUT’S GUIDE TO MOTOAMERICA 2016

1. Cameron Beaubier

2. Josh Hayes

3. Jake Gagne

4. Roger Hayden

5. JD Beach

6. Jake Lewis

7. Josh Herrin

8. Danny Eslick

9. Joe Roberts

10. Garrett Gerloff

11. Josh Day

12. Claudio Corti

13. Bobby Fong

14. Taylor Knapp

15. Chris Fillmore

#16-25: From Anthony to Alexander

On the Outside Looking In

Skills & Traits

Qualifying Speed

The Start

Immediate Pace

Precision

Corner Entrance

Corner Speed

Corner Exit

Aggressiveness

Confidence

Fighting for Position

Racecraft

Providing Feedback

Beyond the Limits

Inclement Weather

There Can Be Only One (1)

Ranking the AMA Superbike Champs

10. Reg Pridmore

9. Scott Russell

8. Nicky Hayden

7. Miguel DuHamel

6. Doug Chandler

5. Wayne Rainey

4. Fred Merkel

3. Josh Hayes

2. Mat Mladin

1. Ben Spies

The Best to Never Wear the Crown

The Road Ahead

The World Cup of Superbike

About This Guide

My two original sports heroes were Kenny Roberts and Walter Payton. I can’t even explain why that was exactly, since my superfan status for both predates my earliest memories, but they were damn good choices nonetheless. A life-long love of motorcycle racing ultimately shaped my choice of career. Meanwhile, my love of football – and the Chicago Bears in particular – mostly just determined my Sunday schedules and about three-quarters of my wardrobe.

However, that heavy football influence did manage to seep into my motorcycle racing journalism in a variety of ways. During my time as a beat reporter for a number of racing outlets, and later during a lengthy run as SPEED’s Motorcycle Racing Editor, I consciously sought out the best examples of NFL sports writing to emulate in my coverage of two-wheeled sport.

Far and away my favorite NFL writing was that of the late Joel Buchsbaum inside the pages of Pro Football Weekly. The reclusive Buchsbaum was the author of PFW’s remarkable NFL Draft Preview books and other scout-centric publications.

In a very real way, this collected series of motorcycle racing scouting guides is a tribute to Buchsbaum and a sincere attempt to bring his brand of journalism to the motorsports’ world. For those of you familiar with PFW’s products, the format of this guide should feel quite familiar. And for those of you who are not, don’t worry, you’ll catch on quick.

It’s my hope you find it at least a fraction as fascinating as I always did Buchsbaum’s work, and that this collection proves to be the first of many. Admittedly, it is something of an experiment and a gamble, but the desire is to turn this into an annual endeavor.

Following in the Buchsbaumian tradition, I positioned myself as a gatherer of information – not a scout. I did not rank the riders myself, nor did I make any judgments regarding their technique, strengths, or weaknesses. Rather, I – with the help of Colin Young, Evan Williams, and others – collected the data and opinions of knowledgeable and well-connected supercross, MotoGP, and MotoAmerica insiders in order to decipher a sort of paddock consensus. I then attempted to reflect that consensus in the individual scouting profiles.

While the insiders tended to see things the same way in most cases, there were some disagreements, including a few stark contradictions. Opinions that did not conform to the broader consensus were not included in the Scouting Report section of the rider profiles. However, those outliers were occasionally included as part of sections I called the Scout’s Notebook, which are collections of anonymous quotes from our experts intended to add another layer of insight to each entry.

As for the actual methodology, we asked racing insiders numbering close to 50 to submit their combined class rider rankings for their respective series of expertise. I went back and forth on just how deep these rider rankings should go. 15? 50? Ultimately, I decided to stick with the football theme and shoot for a Top 25. As with the NCAA Top 25, a first-place vote was good for 25 points, second was worth 24, and so on, all the way down to the single point awarded for 25th. In all, 38 different riders received at least one ballot point.

Additionally, in-depth interviews with the panel of experts were conducted in order to build the scouting reports. In terms of composition, the interviewees consisted of a healthy mix of those in the know: active and former racers, top-level team managers and mechanics, and a sampling of veteran journalists. The combined total of experts from across the three individual guides collected in this edition totals nearly 50 in all with at least that many hours of recordings. From the outset, it was decided that all interviews would be anonymous, whether the subjects requested that be the case or not, in order to secure the most honest critiques possible.

I’d like to offer my deepest thanks and appreciation for their honesty, as well as their time and expertise, without which the creation of this ebook would not have been possible.

Anyway, let’s get to the profiles. I hope you all really dig this. And please, if you do, help spread the word so we’re in a position to create an even bigger and better edition come 2017.

Chris Martin

I. SCOUT’S GUIDE TO SUPERCROSS 2016

#1: Undisputed

Photo: KTM

1. Ryan Dungey

#1 Red Bull KTM (450SX)

Top 25 voting analysis: Highest placement: First/Lowest: Second/Median: First

Birthdate: 12/4/89 (26)/Hometown: Belle Plaine, MN/Measurables: 5’11", 155lbs

Supercross titles: Two-time Supercross Champion (2010, 2015), 2009 250SX West Champion

Career Monster Energy Supercross victories: 34 (22 in the premier class)

2015 results: Champion (450SX), eight wins, 16 podiums, 17 top fives, 17 top 10s

With the exit of four-time reigning champion Ryan Villopoto, the 2015 Monster Energy Supercross championship was both perceived and promoted as a wide-open affair (#WhosNext anyone?). And while it may have even looked that way on a week-to-week basis, as the races and points accumulated, the standings made it obvious the season was anything but.

Ryan Dungey executed a dominating championship campaign in which he pummeled the competition into submission with his relentless excellence. Over the course of the season, he was on the podium in all but one race. His worst finish was fourth in a season where only four others even managed to line up for every Main Event. No other rider avoided finishing outside the top 10 on less than three occasions.

The end result was Dungey’s second-career premier class title. The first came during a 2010 season in which he capitalized as a rookie upstart while the championship dreams of preseason title favorites James Stewart, Chad Reed, and Ryan Villopoto were all extinguished by season-ending injuries. But in 2015, Dungey simply overmatched the opposition, elevating his riding to a whole new level. He scored as many victories (eight) as he had taken in all the years since his debut crown combined. Even more impressively, he did so while somehow simultaneously sidestepping the pitfalls that traditionally accompany that sort of blistering pace.

Unlike a year ago, Dungey enters the 2016 season a heavy odds-on favorite.

Scouting Report:

Strengths: Superior all-around racer. Technically sound with no glaring holes in his game. Ranks as either elite or borderline elite in nearly every category that determines supercross success. In the skills voting, Dungey was named the top rider in five of 14 areas and received at least one vote in 11 of those 14. Moreover, his minimal assortment of weaknesses are largely byproducts of his strengths and have directly contributed to his big-picture success.

Highly productive. Demonstrates rare (arguably unique) race-to-race consistency and strategic acumen. Rides within himself. Precise, calculated, patient, and always in control. Rarely surprised by what the bike is doing underneath him or what his competitors are doing around him.

Extraordinarily efficient, neutral, flowing style. Doesn’t overuse the brakes or the clutch, instead carrying maximum momentum through the corners. Not as quick on entrance as some others, preferring to allow the bike to settle and then carry through and out of the corner with greater overall speed. Especially strong in flat sweepers.

Underrated sprint speed and his long speed ranks among the very best.

Better scrubber than most realize. Gets back on the ground and powers on the downside of wall jumps better than any other rider – an increasingly important skill due to modern supercross track design.

Outstanding at getting out of the gates and positioning himself near the front of the pack from the opening lap (Dungey was rated the series’ best starter). Charged into Turn 1 placed in the top three in 50% of 2015’s Main Events, and has developed a riding style built around the expectation of excellent starts. Has the technique necessary to recover from minor miscues out of the gates and still get into the first turn in a front-running position.

Played a pivotal role developing KTM’s potent, clean-sheet 450 SX-F racebike and has already reaped the rewards offered by the lightweight design. Visibly smoother and more fluid than in previous years, appearing more comfortable and proactive on the bike.

Continues to improve at an age many supercross riders start to decline. Physical fitness is beyond reproach. Entering his third year on the Aldon Baker program and should prove even stronger in 2016. There have been no changes to his overall program, eliminating what few question marks exist.

Has all the intangibles. His mental strength has progressed to the point of being yet another core strength after his toughness was questioned earlier in his career. Hardened by years of criticism, he now ranks as one of the more bulletproof riders in the field.

Weaknesses: While unquestionably among the fastest riders in the world, Dungey lacks the supersonic extra gear of a Ken Roczen or Eli Tomac in sprinting situations.

Success heavily reliant on securing excellent starts. Not an especially assertive overtaker. Limited passing repertoire. Has a clear preference to cut low in 180-degree bowl turns, set up to pass on exit, and complete the attempt in the following section. Made strides last season, but has a history of getting stuck in traffic and will struggle to pass even blatantly slower riders if he can’t make his preferred passing methods work. Not an overly creative or flashy rider. Just okay through the whoops. Better strategically than tactically.*

Assembling an all-time great resume but didn’t fare so well in direct competition with the other all-timer he came up alongside, Ryan Villopoto. Ultimately, riders are defined by their greatest rivals.

*It’s worth noting that at least some of Dungey’s weaknesses may actually make him a more formidable title chaser, even if they cost him race wins on occasion. His approach has allowed him to minimize critical mistakes, controversy, and distracting rivalries. It’s not impossible to suggest that Dungey could ride like Tomac or Trey Canard if he so desired. But in doing so, he might also open himself up to the same sorts of consequences that have held them back.

Scout’s Notebook:

(Dungey’s) not unbeatable, but he and his bike are the best overall package at the moment. About as fast as anyone, about as good a starter as anyone, as fit as anyone, the most consistent of all, and with the best supporting cast. – Journalist (A)

He’s just a machine; he’s 98% on every single thing you have to have to be successful. – 250SX team manager

Villopoto was the only guy out there (Dungey) wasn't sure he was as good as. And with RV gone, that created a void and he’s seized the opportunity. He really put all the pieces together and is now in the middle of his prime. While Dungey is at his peak, Roczen and Tomac are on their way. At some point those paths are going to cross and everyone will be on an equal playing field. I think we saw the best Dungey has ever been – and may ever be – in 2015. The question is if he can elevate that even further in 2016, because I really think that's what it's going to take. – Former 450SX pro

The KTM is probably the best bike out there, and he’s really coming together with it, especially how smooth and fluid he is. The guy is like a machine; you can never count him out. He’s the most consistent guy out there for sure. His line selection is always really good. In the Main Event, with how rutted the track gets, Dungey’s always good at picking out the best lines. Other guys look to him and try to run his lines. He runs smooth, fast lines and avoids the gnarly stuff. – Multi-time national champion

I see a little bit… a tiny bit lack of focus sometimes. He’s got other things going on in his life, which is a healthy thing to have, but he’s not as laser focused as Villopoto or (Ricky) Carmichael were in their day. Dungey is a super nice guy. And I don’t only think he’s a nice guy off the track, but also a nice guy on the track, which doesn’t always work out well. But on the other hand, it keeps him from making enemies and having guys want to take him out. – Journalist (B)

The biggest weakness for him is he has a target on his back. He has the #1 plate, and he hasn’t had that for a few years. It’s been a while since he’s defended. That’s a new issue for him to deal with, and it’s an extra weight. – 450SX competitor

Author’s Notes:

Despite his undeniable results, it kind of makes sense that Dungey has been both underrated and undervalued throughout much of his career. The things he does so much better than everyone else are vitally important skills that don’t make for especially riveting highlight reels: preparation, damage minimization, staying out of the hospital, and showing up ready to put in a solid ride each week. It’s not all that sexy, but that sort of steady week-in, week-out riding can snowball into a dominating championship run. Last year’s performance was so convincing that it sort of forced observers and fans alike to take notice and fully appreciate what it is that Dungey does so well. As a result, he collected all but one of the first-place votes for our Top 25, with just a solitary second-place vote preventing perfection.

Honors:

Named:

Most Consistent Lap-to-Lap (8)

Most Physically Fit (8)

Best at Holding a Lead (5)

Best Out of the Gates (4)

Most Confident (4)

Also received votes for:

Highest Corner Speed (3)

Best All-Around Rider (2)

Most Experienced (2)

Best at Seizing Opportunities (2)

Most Mentally Tough (1)

Best at Coming from Behind (1)

#2-3: Threats to the Crown

While Dungey was a clear #1 in the panelists’ rankings for the SGSX16 Top 25, #2 and #3 couldn’t have been much closer. In the end, only two ballot points separated Ken Roczen from Eli Tomac. And until two late submissions came in just prior to publication, it looked as if they might actually end up tied (in that case Roczen still would have been #2 as he holds the tiebreaker due to his single first-place vote). Meanwhile, the two were well clear of the scrum that knotted positions #4-6 together.

Photo: Suzuki Racing

2. Ken Roczen

#94 RCH/Soaring Eagle/Jimmy John’s/Suzuki Factory Racing (450SX)

Top 25 voting analysis: Highest: First/Lowest: Fourth/Median: Second

Birthdate: 4/29/94 (21)/Hometown: Apolda, Germany/Measurables: 5’7", 145lbs

Supercross titles: 2013 250SX West Champion

Career Monster Energy Supercross victories: Nine (four in the premier class)

2015 results: 12th (450SX), two wins, five podiums, six top fives, seven top 10s (+Monster Energy Cup victory)

Following his two-win, third-ranked rookie showing in 2014, Ken Roczen was something of a trendy title pick entering the 2015 supercross season. This was true even despite his leaving the powerhouse works KTM squad for RCH Suzuki.

And indeed, the young German seemed well positioned to make a run at the crown following a stunning opening three rounds. At A1, Roczen handed RCH its first-ever Monster Energy Supercross victory and backed that up with a runner-up result in Phoenix. He then powered to his second win of 2015 at A2 and showed no signs of looking back… That is, until he quite literally looked back at Chad Reed the following weekend in Oakland and subsequently botched a triple in spectacularly costly fashion.

That untimely error was the beginning of the end for Roczen’s championship hopes. Despite some strong rides in the weeks immediately following, his injuries continued to stack. He ultimately missed the second half of the season entirely with a damaged ankle.

Roczen returned to action in time to defend his ‘14 outdoor crown. There he did well enough to finish the year ranked third overall with a few moto wins to his name. He then signaled his intentions for the 2016 supercross season with a dominating performance at the Monster Energy Cup, logging a 1-4-1 to claim the overall honors.

Scouting Report:

Strengths: Dynamic blend of speed, style, and aggression. Gifted with immense natural tools. Widely considered the most technically proficient rider in the series. Capable of routinely executing maneuvers others wouldn’t dare attempt.

Looks almost effortless on the machine and instinctively makes finite, precise adjustments. Superior balance. Rides with a low center of gravity, focusing his efforts through the pegs rather than the bars.

The best scrubber in the field; while others may manage lower flight trajectories, Roczen storms through jumps without losing speed on take-off. Exceptionally skilled at riding above the track without losing momentum. Exploits the 450’s torque effectively and is particularly strong in transitions between obstacles and on take-offs – areas few others are able to gain speed.

Efficient overtaker. Has the skills and mindset to execute passes immediately and in a wide variety of sections.

Ultimately, all of this talent and technique translates in the form of raw speed. Arguably the best sprinter in all of supercross. Able to drop the pack early and manage the gap to the checkered flag in a Villopoto-esque manner.

Confident right up to the (healthy) border of cocky. Respects Dungey but has no fear of him. When his head is in the right place, Roczen can prove nearly unbeatable.

Weaknesses: Mental strength, fitness, focus, and commitment are all in question, at least in terms of what’s required to win it all at this level.

History of fading as the season progresses. Susceptible to falling into slumps, and earlier in his career showed a tendency to collapse under pressure.

Despite his remarkable natural ability and intuitive racecraft, will make the occasional bewildering blunder.

Far too much off-the-track drama in 2015, especially concerning the relationship between his support system and his team. Most notably, Roczen’s father lambasted RCH publicly in an episode that proved embarrassing for both team and rider.

Scout’s Notebook:

He’s just as fast as Dungey and Tomac, and he has no changes in terms of teams this year. Although I think the mindset isn’t necessarily the same as the first two. I don’t know if there’s the same desperation to win as there is with Dungey and Tomac. Technically, he probably does everything the best, but I think there’s a lot going on off the track that might be distractions. – 450SX competitor

He’s very good at scrubbing. He’s really smooth in the turns. He’s very good at the things Ricky Carmichael was good at. He’s just kind of got it all... He’s on his way to being that complete package, but he’s still only 21. – Former 450SX pro

(Roczen) has the natural style and technique that allows him to do next-level things… His talent should allow him to be better than Dungey, but the pieces aren’t arranged as well. – Journalist (A)

There are a few things that could be hurting him with his circle of people. With his talent, he gets away with a lot of that. And if he can surround himself with good people that’s going to be scary for the rest of the field. While Dungey is 98%, Roczen is 105% with his technique. It’s undeniable how good he is. It’s effortless. It’s easy for him. He can afford being not as fit as some of the other guys, but just his riding ability gets him there. – 250SX team manager

He seems to have brain fade every once in a while. Inexplicably, he’ll case it on a triple or something. It’s like, ‘Why did you do that?’ Every once in a while he just loses concentration. – Journalist (B)

Super, super talented. He’s one of the most talented guys out there. He can do things on the bike not a lot of other guys can do to get through the technical sections. He always knew he was as talented as he is and wanted to win right away, but you’ve got to work into it. Now that he’s got that experience, he’s going to be a real threat. But can he do it throughout the whole year? – Multi-time national champion

Author’s Notes:

Roczen earned the most votes in the Best All-Around Rider category. I wonder if that would have still been true if we had asked for the Best All-Around Racer instead. I got the sense that a lot of the insiders interviewed were tempted to make Roczen their #1 pick but were a bit gun shy. Can he avoid the slump or even the big mistake? Even with his many accomplishments to date, he still has yet to truly live up to his potential. That said, he’s still just 21 and comes brandishing the sort of speed and skill that can press Dungey outside his comfort zone.

Honors:

Named:

Best All-Around Rider (5)

Also received votes for:

Best Sprinter (4)

Most Confident (2)

Best at Holding a Lead (1)

Best Overtaker (1)

Best at Coming from Behind (1)

Most Mentally Tough (1)

Highest Corner Speed (1)

Best at Seizing Opportunities (1)

3. Eli Tomac

#3 Monster Energy Kawasaki (450SX)

Top 25 voting analysis: Highest: Second/Lowest: Fourth/Median: Third

Birthdate: 11/14/92 (23)/Hometown: Cortez, CO/Measurables: 5’9", 150lbs

Supercross titles: 2012 250SX West Champion

Career Monster Energy Supercross victories: 15 (three in the premier class)

2015 results: Runner-up (450SX), three wins, 11 podiums, 13 top fives, 14 top 10s

Next to Ken Roczen, Eli Tomac is viewed as the most likely Dungey dominator in this field.

2015 was technically Tomac’s sophomore year on the big bike, but realistically it was more akin to a second chance at a rookie campaign after spending so much time on the sidelines in ‘14. He produced in a major way during his first healthy season in the class. Tomac finished as the championship runner-up and logged the first, second, and third 450SX Supercross victories of his career along the way.

Tomac closed out the year with six straight podiums (two wins, three runner-ups, and a third), and then looked nigh untouchable during the early stages of the outdoor championship. He ripped off five consecutive imperious moto victories to kick off the motocross season before disaster struck while he was leading the sixth. While leaving the field more than 10 seconds in his wake – again – Tomac suffered a punishing crash at Thunder Valley. As a result, he will still be somewhat less than 100% come the opening round of the ‘16 Monster Energy Supercross season as he continues to recover from double shoulder surgery.

Health is far from the only variable in play, however. Tomac has traded in his GEICO Honda for the lead seat with the highly-decorated Monster Energy Kawasaki squad – a team desperate to return to its former, RV-era, glory. Aiding in that ambition is an uprated KX450F that promises to be significantly more potent than its predecessor.

Scouting Report:

Strengths: Electric talent. Flashes bar-raising skills and those flashes are starting to become more and more the norm. The most upside among the established contenders. Teases Villopoto/Carmichael-level ability.

Explosive, race-changing speed. Not only faster than Dungey, but faster than Roczen and everyone else out there as well. Gaudy stop-watch stats confirm his status as the paddock’s fastest man; recorded the most fast laps in both races and qualifying during 2015 SX competition, and that pace came even though his style didn’t mesh particularly well with the Honda.

Carries tons of corner speed (he ranked #1 in the category), especially through bowl corners. Stands up earlier and stays standing later than most. Gets weight down to the pegs. Like Roczen, floats over tracks, exploiting the wide-open layouts of modern supercross circuits. More than willing to send it over the biggest combinations in search of ever faster lap times.

Rare in that he’s an exceptionally aggressive and creative, yet clean overtaker. Avoids drama, doesn’t mess around, and gets through quick. Dices through the pack better than anyone.

Excellent bloodlines. His father, John Tomac, was a legendary mountain biker who taught his son from an early age how to prepare, train, eat, and execute a game plan. Very fit and mentally strong. Single-minded focus.

Weaknesses: Struggles in the one area that determines supercross success or failure more than any other: the start. Too frequently this failing compounds into subsequent and even costlier mistakes. Pushes too hard during the opening laps while attempting to make up for his start-line shortcomings.

Not only less consistent than Dungey, less consistent than Roczen as well. Tactical decision making questionable at times.

Either doesn’t know how or doesn’t want to manage the pace and control a race effectively from the front. Prefers to destroy the competition rather than merely beat them, making him his own worst enemy at times.

New Kawasaki lacks development with Tomac recuperating during the offseason.

Scout’s Notebook:

Tomac has incredible speed and appears comfortable on the motorcycle, allowing him to get the most out of it. To me he resembles a modern-day James Stewart. He’s also still young and has the potential to develop even more. He does have a tendency to get hurt due to mistakes caused by pushing things too much, especially in more stressful situations. – 450SX team manager

We saw this past summer that his speed ceiling may be higher than anybody’s when things are clicking. He was doing things I’ve never seen before in all my years of being involved in the sport. If he can match that intensity in supercross, we may see a level that’s never been achieved. – Former 450SX pro

I think Tomac is going to throw down the fastest laps at most of the races. I don’t know how he’s getting along with the Kawi, but I’m sure it’s going to be pretty awesome. It’s going to be hard to match Dungey’s consistency, but I think he’ll surprise some people this year. If he gets those starts figured out, he’ll be the guy to beat. He’s super talented, and rhythm section-wise and just how he rides the bike, he does some things no one else can do. He’s going to be insanely fast, I promise you. – Multi-time national champion

Tomac’s probably the fastest rider, but he makes the most mistakes too. If he can make it through the first five laps, I think on paper he’s the most likely to win. But he has a hard time making it through the opening laps without making a mistake. Kawi’s got a new bike, but it’s unproven and I don’t think they have anyone to set it up all that good. – 450SX competitor

He doesn’t have to go out there and win by 45 seconds. He has to be okay with a second place or at least understand that winning by ‘only’ three seconds is better than being out. The thing is, he is so good and he is so fast, I think if he had somebody that could calm him down and get him to understand the longevity of his career, he would be unbelievable. I think he has that with his support system – it’s in place – but they just have to control him a little bit more and not let him just go explosive every time he goes out there. He needs to harness all that talent. – 250SX team manager

Author’s Notes:

So much potential and so many questions. The panel agreed that if Tomac is fully healthy and can polish out some rough spots in his approach, he could very well be the next guy in the sport of supercross.

Honors:

Named:

Highest Corner Speed (4)

Best at Coming from Behind (4)

Most Mentally Tough (tied with Chad Reed) (3)

Also received votes for:

Most Confident (2)

Best Overtaker (1)

Best Sprinter (1)

Best at Seizing Opportunities (1)

Most Physically Fit (1)

Best All-Around Rider (1)

#4-6: Weighing Potential with Uncertainty

Justin Barcia, Trey Canard, and James Stewart came up well short of the top three in terms of ballot points but were separated by just four votes total for positions #4-6. All three were viewed as feast-or-famine picks who could well and truly exceed predictions... or just as easily fall far short of them.

Photo: JGRMX

4. Justin Barcia

#51 AutoTrader.com/Toyota/Yamaha (JGRMX) (450SX)

Top 25 voting analysis: Highest: Third/Lowest: 11th/Median: Fifth

Birthdate: 3/25/92 (23)/Hometown: Monroe, NY/Measurables: 5’8", 145lbs

Supercross titles: Two-time 250SX East Champion (2011, 2012)

Career Monster Energy Supercross victories: 13 (two in the premier class)

2015 results: 15th (450SX), one top five, six top 10s

Following a winless 2014 Monster Energy Supercross season (his first since turning pro), long-time Honda pilot Justin Barcia turned in his wings. Hoping to rediscover his winning ways, the hard-charging rider joined the Joe Gibbs Racing Yamaha effort for 2015.

The early returns of the new pairing were decidedly mixed. Barcia missed the meat of the supercross season with a hip injury, but that only diverted attention away from the fact that Bam Bam’s results prior to the setback had not exactly set the world ablaze.

The New Yorker struggled to come to grips with the unorthodox balance of the Yamaha YZ450F and endured a second winless campaign. By the end of the season, Barcia seemed far removed from the young phenom who was destined to turn the established order on its head just a few short years back. His ‘12 Monster Energy Cup stunner and the follow-up victories he scored as a brash 450SX rookie in 2013 had been relegated to little more than foggy memories in the minds of most supercross diehards.

That is, until the second half of the ‘15 outdoor season served as something of a career renaissance. Barcia reestablished himself as a certified master of the holeshot, ripped off multiple moto wins, and claimed a pair of overall victories. He backed that up with an outstanding performance in the Motocross des Nations and cemented his return to form with a strong showing in this year’s running of the Monster Energy Cup (5-3-4). As a result, he enters 2016 full of confidence and motivation.

Scouting Report:

Strengths: Aggression incarnate. Tenacious rider who gives everything he’s got every time he throws a leg over the saddle. Elevates his riding when the lights shine down.

Not afraid to mix it up with anyone. Among the best defenders in the sport with a reputation to match; unless actively seeking payback, riders generally think twice about getting physical with Barcia. Arguably the roughest passer in supercross. Bashing block passes and bitter rivalries have long been his modus operendi. Generally comes out on top of cat-and-mouse games.

Flashy style makes him easy for fans to love or love to hate. Scrubs jumps at every opportunity and dives into corners as hard as anyone. Visually obvious when he’s feeling it as evidenced by his exaggerated body English on the bike. Finally starting to smooth out his riding although he’s still far from stellar in this respect.

Has the potential to be the field’s top starter; successfully executed 11 holeshots during the ‘15 Nationals season.

Found a welcoming home with JGRMX. Highly organized team staffed with personalities perfectly wired to get the most out of Barcia.

Weaknesses: Needs to be on his game from the opening lap. Lacks blistering speed; can’t make up ground on elite riders and is frequently forced to defend when in front due to an inability to clear out.

Lacks the technical proficiency of a Dungey, Roczen, or Tomac. Charging corner entrances come at the expense of mid- and exit-corner speed. Rushes turns, rides the rear brake, and struggles to maintain his flow. Gets sloppy; lines lack precision, body positioning is inconsistent, and his natural tendency is to over-rev the 450 like it’s a 250, resulting in wheelspin and reduced momentum. As noted above, he’s gotten better here but