Baseball America 2020 Prospect Handbook Digital Edition
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Baseball America 2020 Prospect Handbook Digital Edition - Baseball America
INTRODUCTION
As we usher in the 2020s, we are proud to be celebrating our fifth decade of publishing Baseball America magazine. We are equally proud of the fact that you hold in your hands the 20th edition of the Baseball America Prospect Handbook. The Handbook itself is old enough to be a prospect if it could swing a bat and post a 4.0-second run time from home to first.
If you compare this year’s Prospect Handbook to the first edition, you would be able to see the similarities. The general idea—we rank the top 30 prospects in each major league organization—remains the same. But like most everything, the expectations for the Prospect Handbook have risen over the past 20 years.
In 2001, it took a lot of effort to gather radar gun readings for all pitching prospects in the book. Now we work hard to include exit velocities, spin rates and other objective data that simply didn’t exist when the first Handbook was published.
The Prospect Handbook is the biggest project the Baseball America staff undertakes each year. We’re proud of that, and we want to make sure that it’s well worth your purchase. We hope you enjoy it as much as we enjoyed spending the past year watching players, talking to scouts and writing these 900 scouting reports.
J.J. COOPER AND MATT EDDY
EXECUTIVE EDITORS, BASEBALL AMERICA
A NOTE ABOUT THIS EDITION
Baseball America introduced BA Grades in the 2012 edition of the Prospect Handbook. We also grade all tools for the 300 players who rank as Top 10 Prospects, providing an quick overview of each player’s strengths and weaknesses. All grades are projected future grades.
We grade players’ tools on the 20-80 scouting scale, where 50 is average. A key to the abbreviations:
ALSO NEW IN THE 2020 EDITION:
• PROJECTED 2023 LINEUPS: Our crystal ball now includes Top 30 Prospects rankings in parentheses, where applicable, in addition to all players’ baseball ages in 2023.
• BASEBALL AGE: For the first time, all players’ baseball ages are included in their statistical registers. Baseball age is a player’s age on June 30 of the year in question, which is the standard used by Baseball-Reference.com
and other outlets. This allows the reader to better put prospects’ age relative to level in context.
• BATTER STATISTICS: We removed caught stealing (CS) totals to accommodate baseball age.
• PITCHER STATISTICS: We removed complete games (CG) to accommodate baseball age.
EDITOR’S NOTE: The transactions deadline for this book was Dec. 15, 2019. You can find players who changed organizations by using the handy index in the back.
>> For the purposes of this book, a prospect is any player who is signed with a major league organization and who has not exceeded 130 at-bats, 50 innings or 30 pitching appearances or in the major leagues, regardless of major league service time.
>> The grades attached to each team’s draft class, as evaluated by Teddy Cahill, are based solely on the quality of the players signed, with no consideration given to any players acquired by trading those draft picks or for how many draft picks a team might have lost.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
L = Low. M = Medium. H = High. V = Very High. X= Extreme.
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
ATLANTA BRAVES
BALTIMORE ORIOLES
BOSTON RED SOX
CHICAGO CUBS
CHICAGO WHITE SOX
CINCINNATI REDS
CLEVELAND INDIANS
COLORADO ROCKIES
DETROIT TIGERS
HOUSTON ASTROS
KANSAS CITY ROYALS
LOS ANGELES ANGELS
LOS ANGELES DODGERS
MIAMI MARLINS
MILWAUKEE BREWERS
MINNESOTA TWINS
NEW YORK METS
NEW YORK YANKEES
OAKLAND ATHLETICS
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
PITTSBURGH PIRATES
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
SAN DIEGO PADRES
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
SEATTLE MARINERS
TAMPA BAY RAYS
TEXAS RANGERS
TORONTO BLUE JAYS
WASHINGTON NATIONALS
BA GRADES
For the ninth year, Baseball America has assigned Grades and Risk Factors for each of the 900 prospects in the Prospect Handbook. For the BA Grade, we used a 20-to-80 scale, similar to the scale scouts use, to keep it familiar. However, most major league clubs put an overall numerical grade on players, called the Overall Future Potential or OFP. Often the OFP is merely an average of the player’s tools.
BA GRADE
50
Risk: High
The BA Grade is not an OFP. It’s a measure of a prospect’s value, and it attempts to gauge the player’s realistic ceiling. We’ve continued to adjust our grades to try to be more realistic, and less optimistic, and keep refining the grade vetting process. The majority of the players in this book rest in the 50 High/45 Medium range, because the vast majority of worthwhile prospects in the minors are players who either have a chance to be everyday regulars but are far from that possibility, or players who are closer to the majors but who are likely to be role players and useful contributors. Few future franchise players or perennial all-stars graduate from the minors in any given year. The goal of the Grade/Risk system is to allow readers to take a quick look at how strong their team’s farm system is, and how much immediate help the big league club can expect from its prospect. Got a minor leaguer who was traded from one organization to the other after the book went to press? Use the player’s Grade/Risk and see where he would rank in his new system.
It also helps with our Organization Rankings, but those will not simply flow, in formulaic fashion, from the Grade/Risk results as we incorporate a lot of factors into our talent rankings including the differences in risk between pitchers and hitters. Hitters have a lower injury risk and therefore are safer bets.
BA Grade Scale
RISK FACTORS
LOW: Likely to reach realistic ceiling, certain big league career barring injury.
MEDIUM: Some work left to refine their tools, but a polished player.
HIGH: Most top draft picks in their first seasons, players with plenty of projection left, players with a significant flaw left to correct or players whose injury history is worrisome.
VERY HIGH: Recent draft picks with a limited track record of success or injury issues.
EXTREME: Teenagers in Rookie ball, players with significant injury histories or players whose struggle with a key skill (especially control for pitchers or strikeout rate for hitters).
Explaining The 20-80 Scouting Scale
None of the authors of this book is a scout, but we all have spoken to plenty of scouts to report on the prospects and scouting reports enclosed in the Prospect Handbook. So we use their lingo, and the 20-80 scouting scale is part of that. Many of these grades are measurable data, such as fastball velocity and speed (usually timed from home to first or in workouts over 60 yards). A fastball grade doesn’t stem solely from its velocity—command and life are crucial elements as well—but throwing 100 mph will earn a player an 80 grade. Secondary pitches are graded in a similar fashion. The more swings-and-misses a pitch induces from hitters and the sharper the bite of the movement, the better the grade.
Velocity steadily has increased over the past decade. Not all that long ago an 88-91 mph fastball was considered major league average, but current data shows it is now below-average. Big league starting pitchers now sit 92-93 mph on average. You can reduce the scale by 1 mph for lefthanders as they on average throw with slightly reduced velocity. Fastballs earn their grades based on the average range of the pitch over the course of a typical outing, not touching or bumping the peak velocity on occasion.
A move to the bullpen complicates in another direction. Pitchers airing it out for one inning should throw harder than someone trying to last six or seven innings, so add 1-2 mph for relievers. Yes, nowadays an 80 fastball for a reliever needs to sit at 98-99 mph with some movement and command.
Hitting ability is as much a skill as it is a tool, but the physical elements—hand-eye coordination, swing mechanics, bat speed—are key factors in the hit tool grade. Raw power generally is measured by how far a player can hit the ball, but game power is graded by how many home runs the hitter projects to hit in the majors, preferably an average over the course of a career. We have tweaked our power grades based on the recent rise in home run rates.
Arm strength can be evaluated by observing the velocity and carry of throws, measured in workouts with radar guns or measured in games for catchers with pop times—the time it takes from the pop of the ball in the catcher’s mitt to the pop of the ball in the fielder’s glove at second base. Defense takes different factors into account by position but starts with proper footwork and technique, incorporates physical attributes such as hands, short-area quickness and fluid actions, then adds subtle skills such as instincts and anticipation as a last layer.
Not every team uses the wording below. Some use a 2-to-8 scale without half-grades, and others use above-average and plus synonymously. But for the Handbook, consider this BA’s 20-80 scale.
20: As bad as it gets for a big leaguer. Think Billy Hamilton’s power.
30: Poor, but not unplayable, such as Edwin Encarnacion’s speed.
40: Below-average, such as Eloy Jimenez’s defense, or Trevor Bauer’s control.
45: Fringe-average. Reynaldo Lopez’s control and Kurt Suzuki’s arm qualify.
50: Major league average. Juan Soto’s speed.
55: Above-average. Nick Castellanos’ power.
60: Plus. Alex Bregman’s speed or Stephen Strasburg’s control.
70: Plus-Plus. Among the best tools in the game, such as Corey Seager’s arm, Patrick Corbin’s slider or Francisco Lindor’s defense.
80: Top of the scale. Some scouts consider only one player’s tool in all of the major leagues to be 80. Think of Aaron Judge’s power tool, Byron Buxton’s speed or Aroldis Chapman’s fastball.
20-80 Measurables
SPEED
60-Yard Dash Times (In Seconds)
SPEED
Home-First (In Secs.) RHH—LHH
POWER
Grade Home Runs
FASTBALL
Velocity (Starters)
ARM STRENGTH
Catcher: Pop Times To Second Base (In Seconds)
MINOR LEAGUE DEPTH CHART
AN OVERVIEW
Another feature of the Prospect Handbook is a depth chart of every organization’s minor league talent. This shows you at a glance what kind of talent a system has and provides even more prospects beyond the Top 30.
Players are usually listed on the depth charts where we think they’ll ultimately end up. To help you better understand why players are slotted at particular positions, we show you here what scouts look for in the ideal candidate at each spot, with individual tools ranked in descending order.
POSITION RANKINGS
Context is crucial to prospect evaluations. So to provide yet another layer of context, we rank prospects at all all eight field positions plus righthanded and lefthanded starting pitchers. The rankings go deeper at the glamour positions, i.e. shortstop, center field and righthanded starter.
We grade players’ tools on the 20-80 scouting scale, where 50 is average. The tools listed for position players are ability to hit for average (HIT), hit for power (POW), speed (SPD), fielding ability (FLD) and throwing arm (ARM). The tools listed for pitchers are fastball (FB), curveball (CB), slider (SL), changeup (CHG), other (OTH) and control (CTL). The other
category can be a splitter, cutter or screwball.
Included as the final categories are BA Grades and Risk levels on a scale ranging from low to extreme.
CATCHER
FIRST BASE
SECOND BASE
THIRD BASE
SHORTSTOP
CENTER FIELD
CORNER OUTFIELD
RIGHTHANDER
LEFTHANDER
* Splitter. ^ Screwball. † Cutter.
TALENT RANKINGS