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    Covid-19 Lockdown Analysis: problems for the world occasioned by this coronavirus and proposed solution
    Covid-19 Lockdown Analysis: problems for the world occasioned by this coronavirus and proposed solution
    Covid-19 Lockdown Analysis: problems for the world occasioned by this coronavirus and proposed solution
    Ebook136 pages53 minutes

    Covid-19 Lockdown Analysis: problems for the world occasioned by this coronavirus and proposed solution

    By Marek Laskiewicz

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    About this ebook

    The world is implementing drastic measures to resolve a medium-term medical crisis occasioned by Covid-19. This lockdown is an overreaction because it generates many non-medical secondary problems and other concerns, which could also ruin us all. We cannot lockdown forever, sooner or later we must brave the world. A proposed solution is incrementalism. The goal is enacting many small, scientific changes spread out safely over time to reach the goal of normal activity.

    Lockdown has forced us to take working under confinement to its practical limits. This overreaction will cause a ripple effect of consequent non-medical problems. Instead, such a crisis must be coped with. Learn how in "Covid-19 Lockdown Analysis."
    LanguageEnglish
    PublisherBookBaby
    Release dateApr 27, 2020
    ISBN9781871771510
    Covid-19 Lockdown Analysis: problems for the world occasioned by this coronavirus and proposed solution

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      Book preview

      Covid-19 Lockdown Analysis - Marek Laskiewicz

      Covid-19 Lockdown Analysed

      Marek Laskiewicz

      Covid-19 Lockdown Analysed

      the problems for the world

      occasioned by this coronavirus,

      and proposed solutions

      Krzenwic

      Covid-19 Lockdown Analysed Copyright © 2020 by Marek Laskiewicz . All Rights Reserved.

      Dedication

      To the world

      Contents

      Dedication

      Book Data

      Abstract

      Preface

      List of Contents

      List of Tables

      Part I. Main Text

      1. Introduction

      2. Current Situation

      3. Lockdown Strategy Overview

      4. Macroeconomic Problems

      5. Microeconomic Problems

      6. Philosophical Flaws

      7. Biological Shortcomings

      8. Medical problems

      9. Policing and Law Difficulties

      10. Political Dangers

      11. Military Threat

      12. Ethical Complications

      13. World Lockstep

      14. Long-term Disaster

      15. Long-term Medical Query

      16. Problem Exacerbaters

      17. Lockdown Hangover

      18. Social Questions

      19. Recapitulation

      20. Room for Improvement

      21. Proposed Solutions

      22. Never Again?

      23. Conclusion

      Part II. Appendices

      Appendix A: Mathematical Basis for Antiviral Strategies

      Appendix B: Industry and Engineering Problems

      Appendix C: Science and Progress Halting

      Appendix D: Education Deterioration

      Appendix E: Mathematical Basis for an Exit Strategy

      Appendix F: Mathematical Basis for Incrementalism

      Appendix G: Permissible Incremental Density

      Appendix H: Virus Commencement

      Appendix I: NPIC Report and Incrementalism

      Notes

      Bibliography

      Definitions

      Index List

      Index List Presented

      Colophon

      BACK COVER

      Book Data

      Cover: Marek Laskiewicz.

      Printing, binding and distribution: Krzenwic Ltd

      Unit 206, 94 Fulham Palace Road, London W6 9PL, UK

      www.krzenwic.co.uk

      Copyright © Marek Laskiewicz, 2020

      All rights reserved.

      Marek Laskiewicz has asserted his moral right to be identified as the author of this work in accordance with the Copyright Designs and Patents Act 1988.

      This report is sold subject to the condition that it shall not, by way of trade or otherwise, be lent, resold, hired out, or otherwise circulated without the publisher’s prior consent in any form of binding or cover other than that in which this is published and without a similar condition being imposed on the subsequent purchaser.

      No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, recording, photocopying, or otherwise, except brief extracts for the purposes of review, without the written permission of Krzenwic Ltd.

      Krzenwic Limited, London.

      First edition 2020

      ISBN 978-1-871771-51-0

      A biology book

      Abstract

      The world is implementing drastic measures to resolve a medium-term medical crisis occasioned by Covid-19. However this is an overreaction because it does not consider the multiplicity of consequent non-medical secondary problems generated by these measures nor the long-term medical crisis. Therefore the policy of incrementalism is proposed as a solution or at the very least lockdown should be debated.

      Preface

      This started off as an economics letter about the Covid-19 crisis sent on the 17th of March 2020 to the FT [Financial Times], which had lately published three of them, notably the first one that Boris Johnson may have been quoting when upon becoming Prime Minister he said the problem with Brexit was ‘the lack if a decision’ on the basis of what he had read in the FT that day.¹  However the FT did not publish this letter:

      Sir [Letters Editor]

      Covid-19 will cause a substantial recession, so the Chancellor should alter his proposed budget with its excessive spending.  This virus has changed the basic assumptions about the economy on which the budget was based; in a recession it will be hard to pay off his huge proposed increase in the National Debt, maybe even to service it; and extra unforeseen spending may be required to combat the virus’s spiralling negative economic effects.

      Regards

      Dr Marek Laskiewicz

      Then it was sent to other media, again without any success. So I edited it and on the 25th of March to the FT again:

      Sir

      We are heading for a depression, not merely a recession; this Covid-19 Depression may be as severe as the Great Depression. Consequently the Government may be overwhelmed financially; indeed it is not clear where the money will come from in the UK or USA, especially with a reduced tax base, for the Government to pay for Covid-19 crisis if it lasts too long. Thus we could be ruined economically even if we survive medically; so there should be no excessive Government spending and some economic activity is in fact needed.

      Regards

      Dr Marek Laskiewicz

      Then it was again sent to other media such as The Times . Nevertheless it remained unpublished.

      Subsequently the political aspects of the Covid-19 struck me, so I prepared a letter about these effects of the Covid-19 crisis to other media, some of which had published my letters before such as my 1991 letter to The Economist warning about the threat post-war Russia would one day pose.² However I doubted this letter would be published and so abandoned it before I had finished editing it.

      More problems generated by the drastic lockdown measures being implemented (and the ever more drastic one being mooted) occurred to me as I have many interests and have written about or worked in several fields such as engineering.

      Consequently the letter became an article. However I was not sanguine about being published, and so preferred to convert this into a microbook, which is an article written as a book, a term I had coined for my previous book.

      This in turn meant a different title. I had meant to call the book a protest, since enormous powers were being used without so much as anyone saying a word publicly to question the parameters of the lockdown decision, and this book is in a sense just that, a public protest, albeit a personal public protest. However eventually I saw possible solutions, so decided that the goal of the book was to provoke a public discussion as to whether the best strategy has been chosen, indeed hopefully to provoke a Public Inquiry, and ideally to bring about a substantial change of world policy for this and future pandemics by incrementalism since I thought there was room for improvement. To this end the book presents an analysis, whence the title.

      There remained only the minor problem of appropriately classifying this microbook. In the end I have termed it a biological book as although it straddles several subjects, it is ultimately based on the Covid-19 pandemic, and does indeed also analyse biological aspects of this virus including of course the medical ones.

      Annoyingly, the microbook took me longer to write than I had planned, and turned out longer too. Still, I managed to finish it on the 22nd of April, just over a month after sending out my initial letter, perhaps fittingly on Earth Day as this pandemic is indeed a challenge for the inhabitants of Earth in more ways than one, as this microbook describes.

      Finally it should be noted that this book has also been

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