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SECTOR OF MALAYSIA
FINAL REPORT
The views expressed in this document, which has been reproduced without formal
editing, are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the
Government of Malaysia nor DANIDA.
BY
MAY 2005
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Transportation is one of the key factors for the economy and society. Therefore,
transport policymakers have to create the policy frameworks that require the
transport sector to sustain energy with the three-dimensional objective namely
ecology, economy and social acceptability. In chapter 2, the report discusses about
international experiences on reduction of energy use in transportation sector. There
are many methods and policies to reduce energy consumption in transport sector,
however only several of them that are suitable to be used in Malaysia are elaborated
in this chapter. Those include fuel economy standard for motor vehicle, fuel
economy labels, fuel switching, fuel taxation, emission abatement, further
improvements to vehicles which have been implemented in other developed as well
as developing countries. The study found that many policies can be implemented
directly in Malaysia while some others must be modified to make it suitable for this
country. For example fuel economy label guide program can be directly implemented
however fuel economy standard must be modified because Malaysia has its local
vehicle manufacturers that have to be protected.
ii
change on fuel type is necessary to change the emission. These are discussed
intensively in chapter 3.
The main part of the transport and energy investigations and projections is
presented in Chapter 4. The first part of the chapter discusses a review of existing
data available from related authorities and transportation studies that were
undertaken to date. Population growth, socio-economic factors and energy use in
transportation sector have been considered. Forecasting future transportation growth
based on population growth and socio-economic factors up to 20 years is presented.
Consideration of relationship between transportation trips production and energy
consumption is elaborated. Formulation of a model for forecasting energy
consumption by transportation sector and model validation that takes into
consideration the correlation coefficient is discussed in detail. Furthermore, the uses
of the model to analyze energy consumption based on the modal split scenarios are
also presented. This topic is discussed in Chapter 5.
Due to rapid economic growth, the usage of fuel especially petrol and diesel for
transportation sector has increased tremendously. As a result, the government is
encouraging the use of alternative fuels in the transportation sector. One of the
proposals is to use natural gas (NG) as an alternative fuel and proposing a suitable
policy for it. Study on natural gas vehicle (NGV) has been undertaken to identify the
deficiency and to improve the previous policies. This study involved respondents
(consumers) from public transports (taxi drivers, taxi and bus companies) and owners
of pump stations to identify their opinion about the policy. Data collection to
identify an overview of the current status of NGV development including market
activities and the future prospects of NGV in Malaysia are conducted by
interviewing respondents.
iii
motor vehicles in Malaysia. The fuel economy standard is developed based on the
fuel consumption data that is obtained from manufacturers and other related sources.
With the increasing number of vehicles, fuel economy standards are one of the highly
effective policies for decreasing energy use in the transportation sector. Fuel
economy standards are also capable of reducing air pollution. In this study, the
potential efficiency improvements of vehicles are analyzed by using the engineering-
economic analysis. Meanwhile the possible efficiency improvement of motor
vehicles in reducing the fuel consumption in the transportation sector in the future is
examined by relating the energy, economical and environmental impacts.
iv
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Masjuki Hj Hassan
Mohd Rehan Karim
T.M. Indra Mahlia
v
CONTENTS
vi
CHAPTER 4: TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT AND
ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN MALAYSIA …………………………... 66
4.1 Introduction …………………………………………………………... 67
4.1.1 Modes of Transportation ……………………………………... 68
4.1.2 Transportation Demand Analysis …………………………….. 69
4.1.3 Study Objectives ……………………………………………... 70
4.1.4 Conceptual Framework ………………………………………. 71
4.2 Type of Data Collected ……………………………………….………. 72
4.2.1 Road Transport ……………………………………………….. 72
4.2.2 Rail Transport ………………………………………………... 79
4.2.3 Air Transport ………………………………………………..... 84
4.2.4 Maritime Transport …………………………………………... 91
4.2.5 Passenger Transport Mode Share …………………………….. 92
4.2.6 Number of Vehicle Registration by Type of Fuel ……………. 93
4.2.7 Population ………………………………………………......... 94
4.2.8 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ……………………………… 95
4.2.9 Employment ………………………………………………...... 96
4.3 Review of HNDP and SMURT – KL Study …………………………. 97
4.3.1 Trip Production ………………………………………………. 99
4.3.2 Trip Generation and Attraction Model ……………………….. 100
4.3.3 Trip Production Rates ………………………………………... 103
4.3.4 Model for Forecasting Vehicles ……………………………… 104
4.3.5 Model Share ………………………………………………….. 104
4.4 Future Socioeconomic Framework …………………………………... 105
4.5 Analysis For Transportation Demand ………………………………... 107
4.5.1 Method 1 ……………………………………………………... 108
4.5.2 Method 2 ……………………………………………………... 112
4.5.3 Method 3 ……………………………………………………... 115
4.5.4 Summary of Method 1, Method 2 and Method 3 …………….. 122
4.5.5 Future Total Trip Generation ………………………………… 123
4.5.6 Model Split Scenarios ………………………………………... 125
4.5.7 Future Trip Generation Based on Scenario …………………... 126
4.5.8 Vehicle Kilometer ………………………………………......... 127
4.6 Fuel Consumption In Transportation Sector …………………………. 128
4.6.1 Do Nothing or Do Something Fuel Consumption …………… 131
4.7 Energy Consumption In Transportation Sector ………….…………… 135
4.7.1 Road Transport ……………………………………………….. 136
4.7.2 Rail Transport ………………………………………………... 137
4.7.3 Air Transport ………………………………………………..... 138
4.7.4 Total Energy Consumed by Road, Rail and Air Transport …... 138
4.8 Conclusions and Recommendations …………………….…................. 140
CHAPTER 5: FEASIBILITY AND POTENTIAL OF SWITCHING TO 144
NGV FOR COMMERCIAL VEHICLES IN MALAYSIA ………………
5.1 Introduction …………………………………………………………... 145
5.2 Survey data …………………………………………………………..... 147
vii
5.2.1 Natural Gas Reserves ………………………………………… 148
5.2.2 Natural Gas Reserve in Malaysia …………………………….. 151
5.2.3 Natural Gas Vehicle in Malaysia and Other Countries ……… 153
5.2.4 Number of Vehicles in Malaysia ……………………………. 156
5.2.5 Price of Oil and Natural Gas in Malaysia …………………… 160
5.3 Methodology ………………………………………………………….. 160
5.3.1 Primary Data Collection …………………………………….... 161
5.3.2 Secondary Data Collection …………………………………… 164
5.3.3 Conducting Economic Analysis ……………………………… 166
5.4 Results and Discussions ………………………………………………. 167
5.4.1 Prediction for Number of Public Transport in Malaysia ……... 167
5.4.2 Public Transportation ……........................................................ 167
5.4.3 Companies and Managers of Pump Station ……...................... 174
5.4.4 Economic Analysis ……........................................................... 176
5.5 Conclusions and Suggestions …………………………………………. 179
5.5.1 Conclusions ……....................................................................... 179
5.5.2 Suggestions ……....................................................................... 181
CHAPTER 6: STUDY ON VEHICLE EFFICIENCY STANDARDS ......…. 188
6.1 Introduction …………………………………………………………... 189
6.1.1 Background ……....................................................................... 189
6.2 Survey data …………………………………………………………..... 191
6.3 Methodology ………………………………………………………….. 194
6.3.1 Fuel Consumption ……............................................................. 194
6.3.2 Engineering Economic Analysis ……....................................... 195
6.3.3 Potential Fuel Savings ……....................................................... 202
6.4 Results and Discussions ………………………………………………. 207
6.4.1 Introduction ……....................................................................... 207
6.4.2 Fuel Consumption ……............................................................. 207
6.4.3 Vehicle Growth ……................................................................. 208
6.4.4 Engineering/Economic Analysis ……....................................... 209
6.4.5 Potential Fuel Savings ……....................................................... 262
6.4.6 Economic Impact of the Standards ……................................... 271
6.5 Conclusions and Recommendations ……………………………….….. 273
6.5.1 Conclusion ……........................................................................ 273
6.5.2 Recommendations ……............................................................. 274
viii
LIST OF FIGURES
ix
4.16 Scatter-plot of observed vs. modeled commercial vehicle
(method 3) ........................................................................................ 121
4.17 Forecasted petrol consumption by road transport sector (liter/day) . 134
4.18 Forecasted diesel consumption by road transport sector (liter/day) . 134
4.19 Forecasted petrol consumption by road transport sector (ktoe/year) 136
4.20 Forecasted diesel consumption by road transport sector (ktoe/year) 137
4.21 Forecasted energy used in transportation sector (do nothing) …….. 139
4.22 Forecasted energy used in transportation sector (do something) …. 140
5.1 Percentage of vehicles by type ……………………………………. 158
5.2 Increasing number of vehicles in Malaysia (1987 – 2002) ……….. 159
5.3 Number of public transport (bus and taxi) from the year 1987 to
2002 ……………………………………………………………….. 159
6.1 Impact of design option changes on prices and FES for class I
(City) ……………………………………………………………… 238
6.2 Payback period and life cycle cost for class I (city) ………………. 239
6.3 Impact of design option changes on prices and FES for class I
(Highway) …………………………………………………………. 240
6.4 Payback period and life cycle cost for class I (highway) …………. 240
6.5 Impact of design option changes on prices and FES for class II
(City) ……………………………………………………………… 241
6.6 Payback period and life cycle cost for class II (city) ……………... 242
6.7 Impact of design option changes on prices and FES for class II
(Highway) …………………………………………………………. 243
6.8 Payback period and life cycle cost for class II (highway) ………… 243
6.9 Impact of design option changes on prices and FES for class III
(City) ……………………………………………………………… 244
6.10 Payback period and life cycle cost for class III (city) …………….. 245
6.11 Impact of design option changes on prices and FES for class III
(Highway) …………………………………………………………. 246
6.12 Payback period and life cycle cost for class III (highway) ……….. 246
6.13 Impact of design option changes on prices and FES for class IV
(City) ……………………………………………………………… 247
6.14 Payback period and life cycle cost for class IV (city) …………….. 248
6.15 Impact of design option changes on prices and FES for class IV
(Highway) …………………………………………………………. 249
6.16 Payback period and life cycle cost for class IV (highway) ……….. 249
6.17 Impact of design option changes on prices and FES for 2 stroke
motorcycle (method 1) ……………………………………………. 250
6.18 Payback period and life cycle cost for 2 stroke motorcycle 251
(method 1) …………………………………………………………
x
6.19 Impact of design option changes on prices and FES for 2 stroke
motorcycle (method 2) ……………………………………………. 252
6.20 Payback period and life cycle cost for 2 stroke motorcycle
(method 2) ………………………………………………………… 252
6.21 Impact of design option changes on prices and FES for 4 stroke
motorcycle ………………………………………………………… 253
6.22 Payback period and life cycle cost for motorcycles 4 strokes …….. 254
6.23 Impact of design option changes on prices and FES for medium
duty lorry (class 2 & 3) …………………………………………… 255
6.24 Payback period and life cycle cost for medium duty lorry
(class 2 & 3) ………………………………………………………. 255
6.25 Impact of design option changes on prices and FES for medium
duty lorry (class 4 - 6) …………………………………………….. 257
6.26 Payback period and life cycle cost for medium duty lorry
(class 4 – 6) ……………………………………………………….. 257
6.27 Impact of design option changes on prices and FES for heavy duty
lorry (class 7 & 8) …………………………………………………. 259
6.28 Payback period and life cycle cost for heavy duty lorry
(class 7 & 8) ………………………………………………………. 259
6.29 Impact of design option changes on prices and FES for busses …... 261
6.30 Payback period and life cycle cost for busses …………………….. 261
6.31 Projected fuel savings for cars …………………………………...... 263
6.32 Fuel consumption with and without standards (STD vs BAU) for
cars ………………………………………………………………... 264
6.33 Projected fuel savings for motorcycles …………………………… 265
6.34 Fuel consumption with and without standards (STD vs BAU) for
motorcycles ……………………………………………………….. 266
6.35 Projected fuel savings for medium duty lorry (class 2 & 3) ……… 267
6.36 Fuel consumption with and without standards (STD vs BAU) for
medium duty lorry (class 2 & 3) ………………………………….. 268
6.37 Projected fuel savings for busses …………………………………. 269
6.38 Fuel consumption with and without standards (STD vs BAU) for
busses ……………………………………………………………... 270
6.A1 Car growth in Malaysia …………………………………………… 283
6.A2 Motorcycle growth in Malaysia …………………………………... 283
6.A3 Lorry growth in Malaysia …………………………………………. 284
6.A4 Bus growth in Malaysia …………………………………………… 284
xi
xii
LIST OF TABLES
xiii
4.17 Total cargo throughput by ports from year 1991 to 2002 ………… 92
4.18 Number of new vehicle registration based on fuel type …………... 94
4.19 Malaysia population from 1991 to 2002 ………………………….. 95
4.20 Gross domestic products (GDP) from 1991 to 2002 ……………… 96
4.21 Employment in all sectors from 1991 to 2002 ……………………. 97
4.22 Trip production regression model ………………………………… 101
4.23 General equation fro the trip generation/attraction model (macro
level) ………………………………………………………………. 102
4.24 General equation fro the trip generation/attraction model (micro
level) ………………………………………………………………. 102
4.25 Average vehicle occupancy and load factor ………………………. 103
4.26 Average daily trip production rates by vehicle type in Malaysia …. 103
4.27 Number of vehicles forecasting models in Malaysia ……………... 104
4.28 Modal share in the Kuala Lumpur metropolitan area …………….. 105
4.29 Projected populations, 2005 – 2020 ………………………………. 106
4.30 Projected employment from year 2005 to 2020 …………………... 106
4.31 Projected gross domestic product (GDP) from year 2005 to 2020 .. 107
4.32 Observed vs. modeled passenger car volumes (method 1) ……….. 109
4.33 Observed vs. modeled bus volumes (method 1) ………………….. 110
4.34 Observed vs. modeled commercial veh. (method 1) ……………… 111
4.35 Observed vs. modeled passenger car volumes (method 2) ……….. 112
4.36 Observed vs. modeled bus volumes (method 2) ………………….. 113
4.37 Observed vs. modeled commercial vehicle (method 2) …………... 114
4.38 No. of cars, busses and commercial vehicle year 1991 to 2002 …... 116
4.39 No. of daily rail passenger year 1998 to 2002 …………………….. 116
4.40 No. of daily air passenger …………………………………………. 117
4.41 Method 3 regression model ……………………………………….. 118
4.42 Observed vs. modeled passenger car volumes (method 3) ……….. 119
4.43 Observed vs. modeled bus volumes (method 3) ………………….. 120
4.44 Observed vs. modeled commercial vehicle (method 3) …………... 121
4.45 Trips generation models …………………………………………... 123
4.46 Forecasted no. of passengers by type of modes …………………... 124
4.47 Forecasted modal split by type of modes …………………….…… 125
4.48 Future modal split scenarios ………………………………………. 126
4.49 Forecasted no. of vehicles by type of modes (do nothing scenario) 127
4.50 Forecasted no. of vehicles by type of modes (do something
scenario) …………………………………………………………... 127
4.51 Forecasted trip generation rates by type of modes ………………... 127
4.52 Total vehicle-km of the traffic (do nothing scenario) …………….. 128
4.53 Total vehicle-km of the traffic (do something scenario) ………….. 128
4.54 Summary statistics for passenger cars, 1990 – 2000 ……………… 129
4.55 Summary statistics for two-axle trucks, 1990 – 2000 …………….. 129
4.56 No. of new vehicle registration based on fuel types ……………… 130
4.57 Proportion of new vehicle registration based on fuel types ………. 130
4.58 Forecasted no. of vehicles (do nothing scenario) …………………. 132
xiv
4.59 Forecasted no. of vehicles (do something scenario) ……………… 132
4.60 Forecasted fuel consumption (do nothing scenario) ……………… 133
4.61 Forecasted fuel consumption (do something scenario) …………… 133
4.62 Energy use by various types of vehicles ………………………….. 135
4.63 Forecasted energy consumption of rail transport …………………. 137
4.64 Forecasted energy consumption of air transport ………………….. 138
4.65 Forecasted energy used in transportation sector (do nothing) …….. 139
4.66 Forecasted energy used in transportation sector (do something) …. 139
5.1 World natural gas reserves by country as January 1, 2003
(EIA2004) ………………………………………………………… 150
5.2 World natural gas vehicles by country ……………………………. 156
5.3 Number of vehicles in Malaysia (JPJ,2002) ……………………… 157
5.4 Price of fuels in Malaysia …………………………………………. 160
5.5 Prediction of total public transport (bus and taxi) from year 2005
to 2020 …………………………………………………………….. 169
5.6 Feedback obtained based on the survey carried out on NGV user
(taxi driver) ………………………………………………………... 170
5.7 Feedback obtained based on the survey carried out on non - NGV 171
user (taxi driver) …………………………………………………...
5.8 Feedback obtained based on the survey carried out on managers of
bus companies …………………………………………………….. 173
5.9 Estimated annual consumption between petrol and natural gas …... 177
5.10 Estimated annual consumption between diesel and natural gas …... 177
5.11 Estimated annual maintenance cost (RM) for different fuels …….. 178
5.12 Comparison of total operation cost for public transport with
different fuel consumption ………………………………………... 179
6.1 Total number of vehicles in Malaysia …………………………….. 191
6.2 Fuel consumption data (CAR) ……………………………………. 192
6.3 List of motorcycle model and price ……………………………….. 193
6.4 Fuel cost over the vehicle’s 10 years lifetime ………… 208
…………..
6.5 Types/classes of cars ……………………………………………… 210
6.6 Types/classes of motorcycles …………………………………….. 210
6.7 Types/classes of lorry …………………………………………….. 211
6.8 Potential increase in fuel economy and related price
increase for cars ……………………………………………… 212
………………...
6.9 Potential increase in fuel economy and cost for motorcycles …….. 213
6.10 Potential increase in fuel economy and related price increase for
medium duty lorry (class 2 & 3) ………………………………….. 214
6.11 Potential increase in fuel economy and related price increase for
xv
medium duty lorry (class 4 - 6) …………………………………… 215
6.12 Potential increase in fuel economy and related price increase for
heavy duty lorry (class 7 & 8) ……………………………………. 216
6.13 FES and incremental cost of design options for class I car ……….. 218
6.14 FES and incremental cost of design options for class II ………….. 219
6.15 FES and incremental cost of design options for class III …………. 219
6.16 FES and incremental cost of design options for class IV …………. 220
6.17 FES and incremental cost of combined design options for class I
(CITY) …………………………………………………………….. 220
6.18 FES and incremental cost of combined design options for class I
(HIGHWAY) ……………………………………………………… 221
6.19 FES and incremental cost of combined design options for class II
(CITY) …………………………………………………………….. 221
6.20 FES and incremental cost of combined design options for class II
(HIGHWAY) ……………………………………………………… 222
6.21 FES and incremental cost of combined design options for class III
(CITY) …………………………………………………………….. 222
6.22 FES and incremental cost of combined design options for class III
(HIGHWAY) ……………………………………………………… 223
6.23 FES and incremental cost of combined design options for class IV
(CITY) …………………………………………………………….. 223
6.24 FES and incremental cost of combined design options for class IV
(HIGHWAY) ……………………………………………………… 224
6.25 FES and incremental cost of design option for 2 stroke motorcycle
(METHOD I) ……………………………………………………… 224
6.26 FES and incremental cost of design option for 2 stroke motorcycle
(METHOD II) ……………………………………………………. 225
6.27 FES and incremental cost of design option for 4 stroke motorcycle 225
6.28 FES and incremental cost of combined design options for 2 stroke 226
motorcycle (METHOD I) …………………………………………
6.29 FES and incremental cost of combined design options for 2 stroke
motorcycle (METHOD II) ………………………………………... 226
6.30 FES and incremental cost of combined design options for 4 stroke
motorcycle ………………………………………………………… 227
6.31 FES and incremental cost of design option for medium duty lorry
(class 2 & 3) ………………………………………………………. 228
6.32 FES and incremental cost of design option for medium duty lorry
(class 4 - 6) ……………………………………………………….. 229
xvi
6.33 FES and incremental cost of design option for heavy duty lorry
(class 7 & 8) ………………………………………………………. 230
6.34 FES and incremental cost of design option for busses ………......... 231
6.35 FES and incremental cost of combined design options for medium
duty lorry (class 2 & 3) …………………………………………… 232
6.36 FES and incremental cost of combined design options for medium
duty lorry (class 4 - 6) ……………………………………………. 233
6.37 FES and incremental cost of combined design options for heavy
duty lorry (class 7 & 8) …………………………………………… 234
6.38 FES and incremental cost of combined design options for bus …... 235
6.39 The input value of baseline models for each class of car
(city driving) ……………………………………………………… 236
6.40 The input value of baseline models for each class of car
(highway driving) ………………………………………………… 236
6.41 The input value of baseline models for each class of motorcycles .. 237
6.42 The input value of baseline models for each class of lorries and
busses ……………………………………………………………... 237
6.43 Life-cycle cost and payback period calculation for class I car
(CITY) …………………………………………………………….. 238
6.44 Life-cycle cost and payback period calculation for class I car
(HIGHWAY) ……………………………………………………… 239
6.45 Life-cycle cost and payback period calculation for class II car
(CITY) …………………………………………………………….. 241
6.46 Life-cycle cost and payback period calculation for class II car
(HIGHWAY) ……………………………………………………… 242
6.47 Life-cycle cost and payback period calculation for class III car
(CITY) …………………………………………………………….. 244
6.48 Life-cycle cost and payback period calculation for class III car
(HIGHWAY) ……………………………………………………… 245
6.49 Life-cycle cost and payback period calculation for class IV car
(CITY) …………………………………………………………….. 247
6.50 Life-cycle cost and payback period calculation for class IV car
(HIGHWAY) ……………………………………………………… 248
6.51 Life-cycle cost and payback period calculation for 2 stroke
motorcycle (method 1) ……………………………………………. 250
6.52 Life-cycle cost and payback period calculation for 2 stroke
motorcycle (method 2) ……………………………………………. 251
6.53 Life-cycle cost and payback period calculation for 4 stroke
xvii
motorcycle ………………………………………………………… 253
6.54 Life-cycle cost and payback period calculation for medium duty
lorry (class 2 & 3) ………………………………………………… 254
6.55 Life-cycle cost and payback period calculation for medium duty
lorry (class 4 - 6) ………………………………………………… 256
6.56 Life-cycle cost and payback period calculation for heavy duty
lorry (class 7 & 8) ………………………………………………… 258
6.57 Life-cycle cost and payback period calculation for busses ……….. 260
6.58 Input data for potential fuel saving of cars ………………………... 262
6.59 The calculation of fuel savings for cars …………………………... 263
6.60 Input data for potential fuel saving of motorcycles ……………….. 264
6.61 The calculation of fuel savings for motorcycles ………………….. 265
6.62 Input data for potential fuel saving of medium duty lorry
(class 2 & 3) …………………………………………………….. 266
6.63 The calculation of fuel savings for medium duty lorry
(class 2 & 3) ………………………………………………………. 267
6.64 Input data for potential fuel saving of busses ……………………... 268
6.65 The calculation of fuel savings for busses ………………………... 269
6.66 The calculation result from the cost-benefit analysis for cars …….. 271
xviii
NOMENCLATURES
xix
P Fuel price (RM)
Po Price of the conventional fuel (diesel or petrol) (RM/liter)
Pg Price of natural gas (RM/liter)
PAY Payback period (year)
PC Investment cost (RM)
(
PV ANS iv ) Present value of annualized net saving in year i (RM)
PWF Present worth factor
R Fuel price (RM)
r Discount rate (%)
S saving (RM/year)
SFC sv Standard fuel consumption of vehicle (liter/yr)
Shiv Shipments in year i of vehicle
SSFi v Shipment survival factor in year i of vehicle
TEI sv Total efficiency improvement of vehicle (%)
TM i Total emission in year i (kg, Ton)
Ui Utilization increase
UFSiv Initial unit energy savings in year i of vehicle (Liter/year)
UFS sv Initial unit fuel saving (Liter/year)
X Year predicted – year start
Y Predicted value
y Motor vehicles predicted data
ym The average data
Yseiv Year of standards enacted of vehicle (year)
Yshiv Year i of shipment of vehicle (year)
YtcTv Year target calculation for vehicle (year)
Abbreviations
ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations
ATF Aviation Turbine Fuel
CAFE Corporate Average Fuel Economy
CF Conversion factor
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO Carbon monoxide
CO2 Carbon dioxide
CSE Centre for Science and Environment
DAF Dutch vehicle Maker Association
EDI Electronic Data Interchange
Gg Gigagram
GHG Green House Gas
GJ Giga Joule
xx
HC Hydrocarbon
IEA International Energy Agency
ktoe Kilo ton oil equivalent
LPG Liquefied Petroleum Gas
LRT Light Rail Transit
I&M Inspection and Maintenance
Mbd Million Barrel per Day
MPG Mile per Gallon
Mt Metric ton
NG Natural gas
NGV Natural Gas Vehicle
OECD Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development
PJ Petajoule
SO2 Sulfur dioxide
SULEV Super Ultra Low Emission Vehicle
SUV Sport Utility Vehicle
xxi
ENERGY USE IN THE TRANSPORTATION SECTOR OF MALAYSIA
CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION
Transportation is one of the major human activities around the world. Unfortunately,
this activity is burning the limited nonrenewable energy that leads to some negative
energy policy for transportation sector as one of the options to balance the demand
and supply for energy at the government, society and individual levels. This effort
would lead to the preservation of our limited nonrenewable energy resources and our
people towards the future generations. Energy planning and policy has become very
countries today. The importance of energy planning and policy is linked to industrial
Malaysia is still using traditional fossil fuel type such as gasoline, diesel and
electricity. These activities create millions of tons of greenhouse gases each year.
analysed accurately yet. Suitable energy planning and policy in transportation sector
can reduce the demand for fossil fuel and hence reduce the production of greenhouse
gases and other emissions. Based on fossil fuel consumption, transportation sector
accounts for almost 49 percent of the national greenhouse gas emissions (MOSTE,
2000). Therefore, suitable policies can play an important role in helping Malaysia to
meet overall greenhouse gas and emissions reduction target and at the same time
sector in Malaysia uses about 40% of the total energy demand (National Energy
Balance, 2003). The final energy use by sector in Malaysia is presented in Figure 1.1.
This energy is used by a variety of type transport such as motor car, motorcycle, bus,
goods vehicle, train, LRT, airplane, marine and etc to provide transportation services
and other end-uses for society. Ideally, fuel consumption by various vehicles such as
motor car, motorcycle, bus and freight vehicle must be set to a certain level in order
to ensure that they use energy efficiently. For the benefit of the consumers, the
of fuel used, the petrol (gasoline) and diesel has been the largest of energy share in
transportation sector, which are about 55% and 31% of total energy consumption in
consumption in this country, consumer should be educated to select the most efficient
vehicle from the market or to promote alternative fuel. This objective can be
Using energy efficiently and caring about the environment are two important
conducive factors under the current global market conditions. Realizing that, energy
efficiency policy is becoming a strategic policy for many nations today. This is also
the main reason for the Malaysian government to focus extensively and allocate
adequate resources in the 9th Malaysia Plan to encourage the efficient use of energy
resources and to diversify fuel use in transportation sector. Parallel with the interest
shown by the government, this study is investigate energy use in the transportation
Transport
40%
Figure 1.1. Final energy use by sector in 2002 of 33290 ktoe (National Energy
Balance 2003)
1.1 Background
For more than two decades, in average Malaysia’s economy grew more than
6% per annum. The Gross Domestic Product increased from RM 79,330 million in
1990 to RM 244,555 million in 2004. At the same time, the per capita income has
growth is the main driving factor for increased energy demand in transportation
rapidly in recent years, the importance of transportation sector has been realized for
increasing number of passenger and vehicle time to time increasing trip lengths and
traffic densities, thereby increasing the energy used for propulsion of vehicles.
the cities, the private vehicle population has grown year by year in Malaysia.
from fossil fuels and consequently increase air pollution due to their combustion. In
addition, traffic speeds also lead to increased energy consumption. Other parameters
such as vehicle population, occupancy level, vehicle utilization pattern and fuel
efficiency of different vehicles as well as emissions factor should be taken into the
limited in terms of availability, it is important for energy planners to plan for greater
efficiency of energy use in transport sector in this country which would reduce rapid
use of petroleum oils and also reduce growing air pollution especially on CO 2
emission which is two-third comes from transport fuels combustion. Recently, India
as a low per capita income country but have greater CO2 emissions based
transportation sector is already begin to manage the energy use for transport sector
efficiency policy as well as improved the fuels quality standard. Furthermore, some
studies on European and Japanese fuel economy initiatives: what they are, their
Countries which are mostly oils importer, the infrastructure improvement was done
by traffic controlled in the cities to avoid traffic jam as well as by implementing strict
rule on the vehicle speed at the highway was successfully reduce total fuel
consumption and maintain air quality (Danielis, 1995); (Liaskas, 2000). Besides
well as introducing alternative fuel cars with lower fuel consumption can lower
emissions. Several developed countries such as Japan, England, USA and Sweden
have also implemented the policy to reduce energy intensity by population such as
higher taxation for petroleum fuels as well as for every gram of CO2 emits more than
Malaysia with the rapid petroleum based fuel growth also tries to introduce
Natural gas to be primary fuel. However, more than 80% of vehicles are still running
transport sector. Therefore, comprehensive study must initiate from this date to
overtake this problem while petroleum crisis and environmental impact being a great
issues recently. This study is necessary to develop energy used database for transport
sector and will be used for total energy used database in this country. The database
will be dedicated to Malaysia policy makers for further action in order to manage
As stated earlier, motor vehicle is one of the major energy consuming in the
Since land transport is one of the major energy consumers in the transportation
sector in Malaysia, implementing suitable energy efficiency policy for this sector
sectors and offer great benefits for the consumers, government as well as to the
environment. In agreement to this opinion DeCicco and Mark (1998) states that the
transition toward a more sustainable transportation system can emanate from a suite
standards would provide the foundation of the technology innovation strategy that
enabling R&D, the policies can facilitate market transformation toward advance
technology highway vehicles, efficient air and intercity travel, and renewable fuels.
Improvement in regional planning such as in Klang Valley, Penang and Johor Bahru
and intermodal capacity would help by reducing travel needs and shifting travel to
more efficient modes. However, Dowlatabadi et al. (1996) claims that savings
gasoline (in transportation sector) is attractive, but is not only one of many goals
society seeks with respect to automobiles; the other include increased safety, lower
emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases, and consumers attributes such as
low price, attractiveness, good ride, size and performance. These goals are inherently
contradictory (Lave, 1981), seeking to achieve one goal generally has unintended
consequences in terms of other goals, e.g. lowering emissions leads to increased cost.
in order to reduce the energy consumption in this sector in order to reduce the
complexity of the study. Final consumption for petroleum product in 2002 is shown
in Figure 1.2 and percentage of transportation sector energy use based on fuel types
Figure 1.2 Final consumption for petroleum product in 2002 of 20,635 ktoe (National
Electricity
Petrol 0.0% Diesel
51.6% 34.8%
Fuel oil
NG
ATF & AV Gas 0.0%
0.2%
13.3%
Figure 1.3 Percentage of transportation sector energy use based on fuel types in 2002
of 13,441 ktoe (National Energy Balance 2003)
and mutually. The technologies continually remove the less efficient product from
the market and energy policies are creating transformations in the market. As the
tool to win their competition in the market. To make this program a success, there
should be a good cooperation between the public and private sector. With an
appropriate policy, the manufacturers and companies will have time to retool and
invest in designing towards more efficient energy use. As a result, the transport
manufacturer will develop more efficient product, which will benefit them, through
promote more efficient energy used product and will begin an important market
transformation for the product in the country. It is expected that energy efficiency
initiatives for transportation sector can indeed be tapped and expanded in Malaysia to
views to reduce the energy use and environmental emissions in the transportation
sector in Malaysia. In order to achieve this main aim several other objectives have
transport sector
To analyze historical trend and project future trend of energy demand and
vehicles
transportation sector in this country. The output will be a report entitled “Energy Use
in the Transportation Sector of Malaysia”. It will cover all the points mentioned in
the objectives.
uncertainty in forecasting. Undoubtedly, pursuing the path outlined here would yield
large reductions in energy used and emissions compare to what will ensue in the
absence of policy change. Leaving aside upheaval in global oil supply or other
push demand significantly higher or lower than the baseline assumed in the study.
However, it is believed that the baseline and the data use in this study is more likely
Another limitation is, in this study is only involve about 452 respondents from
NGVs taxi driver who not yet used NG as fuel. It also interviewed only several
station, both that have not been sell NGV and the one who did. However the study
The report is the study on energy use in transportation sector of Malaysia. The
this country. The report is divided into eight chapters and the organization of the
report is as follows:
contributions and limitation of the study together with organization of the report.
transport sector.
consumption in Malaysia.
Malaysia.
References
Danielis, R. (1995). Energy use for transport in Italy : Past trends.
Energy Policy 23 (9), 799–807.
Dowlatabadi, H., Lave, L.B., Russell, A.G. (1996). A free lunch at higher CAFE? A
review of economic, environmental and social benefits. Energy Policy 24 (3), 253-
264.
Plotkin, S. E. (2001). European and Japanese fuel economy initiatives: what they are,
their prospects for success, their usefulness as a guide for US action. Energy Policy
29 (13), 1073–1084.
CHAPTER 2
INTERNATIONAL EXPERIENCES ON REDUCTION
OF ENERGY USE IN TRANSPORT SECTOR
SUMMARY
Transportation is one of the key factors for the economy and society. Therefore
transport policymakers have to create the policies frameworks that are required for
transport sector to sustain energy with three dimensional objective namely ecology,
reduction of energy use in transportation sector. There are many methods and
them that are suitable to be used in Malaysia will be elaborated in this chapter. Those
include fuel economy standard for motor vehicle, fuel economy labels, fuel
which are have been implemented in other develop as well as developing countries.
The study found that many policies can be implemented directly in Malaysia while
other must be modified to make it suitable in this country. For example fuel economy
label guide program can be directly implemented in this country, however for fuel
2.1. Introduction
There are many methods and policies to reduce energy consumption in the
introduction of a four day work week; improvement of car and truck engines;
alternative vehicle engines; production of smaller cars; reduction of taxation for car
pooling; creation of parking facilities and reservation of lanes for car pools;
transport; introduction of toll roads; taxes on peak hour travel; speed limit; limit on
coupons; limiting number of gasoline stations; and measures to restrict the energy
consumption in the transport sector. However just several of them that is suitable to
In America it has been reported that Americans spend more than $500 million
per day to fuel their cars, SUVs, and other light trucks. Nationally, these vehicles
account for 45 percent of U.S. oil consumption which is 8.8 million barrels a day
(mbd). Fuel economy standards have improved the efficiency of America’s cars and
trucks and resulted in dramatic oil savings. Corporate Average Fuel Economy
America’s gas mileage over the subsequent decade. The National Academy of
Science has estimated this saves about 2.8 mbd. However, CAFE standards have
remained static for almost two decades due to federal gridlock. The current standard
of 27.5 miles per gallon (mpg) for automobiles first applied in 1985, and the 20.7
mpg standard for light trucks is only 0.2 mpg above the 1987 standard (but is now set
to rise to 22.2 mpg by 2007). Besides that, in the city of Los Angeles, the
Meanwhile, it has been reported in Canada that between 1990 and 2002,
this move would reduce the total energy demand and CO2 emission
The move made Curitiba’s gasoline use per capita lower than that
program are, among others, to encourage the use of CNG and LPG
to move freight transportation more efficiently between the port and industrial areas.
This will see the use of rail into Fremantle Port increase from three per cent to 30 per
cent and reduce the number of trucks on their roads. The Planning and Infrastructure
portfolio has also reduced the number of six-cylinder vehicles by 15 per cent since
2003 and has also increased the number of Toyota Prius hybrids in the fleet to 16.
Meanwhile, from February 2001 to June 2004, the State Government has spent more
year. As a result, the number of people using the Perth Bicycle Network has doubled
during the last five years. Additionally the Government has embarked on the State's
MetroRail will carry almost 35,000 people each weekday and take 25,000 cars off
Railway alone will save almost 15million litres of fuel each year (Mactiernan, 2004).
equivalent per year. In Myanmar, motor vehicle inspection is pursued by the Road
Although Myanmar does not yet have any vehicle emission standards, the
department has adopted standard requirements and testing procedure for motor
efficiency, exhaust emission (smoke), noise, and depth of tyre groove, which are
In Korea, motor vehicle registration nationwide has increased 18.1 times, from
527,729 in 1980 to 9,553,062 in 1996. The passenger car ownership increased 27.7
times since 1980, from 249,102 to 6,893,633 in 1996. This figure reflects an
increase of an average 23.1% per year. The road system, which handles more than
90% of the country's transportation, has been intimately connected to Korea's rapid
economic growth and land development since 1960s when it began to expand
dramatically. In preparation for the 21st century, the government is eagerly pursuing
a New Road Policy, with the goal of building a safe, convenient and fast road
system. To achieve this goal, the government plans to reduce the travel time to just
half a day between any points in the country in the early 2000s. The government
also plans to reduce the access time to any road network system from anywhere in
the country to less than thirty minutes. There will be seven north-south trunk routes
and nine east-west trunk routes, totalling 6,160 km. Meanwhile, to meet the rapidly
increasing container traffic, two new terminals, Pusan's fourth phase and
Kwangyang's first phase, which house four berths each are opened in 1998. It is
predicted that Korea's container handling capacity will still lag behind the maritime
traffic demand of the 21st century. The Korean government has also decided to
develop a new container terminal located about 25 km west of the existing port. This
project will provide 24 modern berth terminals. The construction for the first phase
began in late 1997, and the first 10 berth terminals will commence operations before
2005. Additionally in order to facilitate the flow of cargoes and information in all
areas of trade, the Ministry of Maritime Affairs & Fishery has been operating the
EDI (Electronic Data Interchange) system on a commercial basis since July 1995.
government has implemented two phases of Light Rail Transit (LRT) systems and
the fuel efficient electrified double track commuter service. The improved transport
services is viewed that it will change the pattern of the existing transportation usage,
reducing number of private vehicles on the road thus reducing fuel consumption
which lead to reduction of emission. Apart from that, the Ministry of Finance has
allocated tax exemption on kits and necessary components for converting vehicle to
utilize natural gas. Furthermore, the road tax of vehicles using only natural gas is
discounted by 50% of the prevailing rate while 25% was given to bi-fuel vehicles.
Moreover, special capital allowance was also given to companies operating mono-
gas buses and for NGV petrol station entrepreneur (Norhayati & Yuzlina, 2001).
Mobility is one of the key factors for the economy and society. Transport
policymakers have to create the statutory and policy frameworks that are required if
transport needs are to be met taking account of sustainability in its three dimensions
(ecology, economy and social acceptability). In the transport sector, land transport,
vehicle emissions if improved fuels and engines are introduced. This scope for
agreed on in Kyoto protocol are to be met, even more has to be done for the transport
sector. The Government is thus supporting the search for a fuel of the future based on
renewable energy and having extremely low emissions. In conjunction with further
improvements to fuels and vehicles on the basis of fossil resources, the wide-scale
use of renewable energy in transport and in the production of fuel will make it
possible to take a big step towards more sustainable transport. Moreover, the need of
such policy which will be implemented on fossil fuels usage is becomes much
necessary. Among the countries which have been implemented the policy of fuels
usage on transport sector are some European countries, USA, Australia, Japan, etc.
2.3.1. Thailand
concern on energy policy on fossil fuel started at this year. As the subsidies on petrol
prices come to an end this year, Thailand government is also trying to set a suitable
policy for energy and fuel conservation, to keep the economy and the country's
coffers in good shape. Paradoxically, the government is letting petrol prices float and
will continue subsidizing diesel at least through to the end of the cool season. That is
the way Thailand can minimize the impact of higher fuel prices in the short term
2.3.2. Singapore
In Singapore the rapid economic development in the last three decades has led
Singapore needs to constantly promote energy conservation and to explore the use of
alternative fuels. At the same time, the Singaporean government is also concerned
local and global environment, reduction of CO2 and SO2 emissions, etc., were
Environment, 1993). Other policy which has been used in Singapore is to provide
financial incentives to promote the use alternative fuels and electric vehicles. This is
based on a reduction of imported vehicle tax and vehicle road tax (Poh and Ang,
1999).
High oil prices and rising fuel taxes have lead an explosion of fury across the
Following the recent oil price rise, the Europeans have finally realized what a
massive burden fuel taxes place on their budgets. In response to the people's outcry
for relief, most European leaders have arrogantly dismissed requests for reduced fuel
taxes, claiming that such an action would be "pandering." Indeed many have argued
that the continuation of massive fuel taxes is a tough but "principled" and virtuous
policy.
Nevertheless, the fact is fuel taxes in the U.K. and Europe is punitively high.
According to a Sept. 11th editorial in Investor's Business Daily, entitled "The French
are Onto Something", taxes comprise $2.82 of the $4.07 gallon in France, $2.56 of
the $3.91 gallon in Germany, and $2.53 of the $3.97 gallon of fuel in Italy. In the
U.S., fuel taxes comprise about 39 cents of the average $1.64 gallon of gas.
pegged to price, so an increase in fuel prices raises the tax. Prices are now some 90
pence per liter, over $6.00 per gallon, with $5.00 of that tax. The average Britain
pays over $100 a week to run his car, and some $80 of it goes to the government."
(Capitalism Magazine, 2000). Of course, Blair and other European leaders have
numerous explanations for why high fuel taxes are so necessary and desirable. One
Economic Case for High Fuel Taxes: published Sept. 12, 2000 by The Financial
Times listed no less than eight reasons, which have been summarized as follows:
(ii) People need to be able to plan for high fuel taxes with certainty - lower taxes
(iii) It is unfair to cut taxes now, because humans are too selfish to volunteer to pay
(iv) Fuel is a good thing to tax because people will keep buying it anyway.
(vii) The fuel tax punishes the rich with cars while helping the poor without cars.
(viii) Our grandchildren might not have enough oil if we don't tax it highly.
2.3.4. Japan
Transport Ministry official Yuji Matsuzaki said the ministry's proposal would force
automakers to produce passenger cars and cargo trucks that spew less carbon dioxide
and other greenhouse gases, which are believed to cause global warming. Under the
ministry's current guidelines, automakers must make passenger cars 10 percent more
fuel efficient and less polluting by 2010, compared to 2000. Trucks are exempt from
such standards.
2.3.5. Australia
Despite significant efforts to promote the benefits of public transport, its use has
declined while the affordability of motor cars has continued to improve and car
ownership and use are rising. Consumers want affordable and safe cars, cheap fuels,
ample parking, congestion free roads and environmentally friendly vehicles as long
as they don’t have to pay for it. As a community they are hyper sensitive about
petrol prices and as we have seen a few cents a litre rise at the petrol pump can cause
keenly aware of the revenue generated from petroleum products (Environment News
Service, 2000).
Minister Robert Hill "In European countries there are many smaller cars on the
roads, which have highly efficient motors driven by the cleaner, better quality fuel.
These smaller cars go further on a liter of fuel and they have less effect on the air
quality."
gas emissions, accounting for almost 16 percent of the 72.6 million tonnes of carbon
dioxide pumped into the environment every year. The new rules will mean higher
octane, lower sulphur content fuel. This should help reduce pollution as well as cut
to limit emissions of carbon dioxide and other climate warming gases to eight
percent of 1990 levels. Such emissions have actually grown by 16 percent. The Fuel
Quality Standards Bill forms part of the Australian government's A$1 billion
package. The new law in Australia will introduce tougher penalties to protect
2.3.6. India
its final conclusions regarding the "auto-fuel policy report" delivered by an expert
committee headed by India's top science advisor. This report recommended fuel
neutrality (with ultra-low sulfur diesel by 2010) rather than the CNG monopoly
scheme for major cities pushed by India's Supreme Court and anti-diesel "green"
group, Center for Science & Environment (CSE). Currently, the comprehensive study
or results still yet to publish regarding this policy. However, this policy was aimed to
2.7.7. France
fuel that produce major reductions in transport oil use, NG as transport fuels is still
available in large quantities in the years 2020. This now seems unlikely. The IEA has
recently analyzed world energy prospects out to 2020 and beyond (IEA, 1998). For
NG, it was assumed that ultimate reserves, both already produced and still to be
produced, were 260 btoe, slightly less than the 310 btoe estimated for oil. World
demand for NG is growing faster than that for oil as gas increases its share of energy
in the developed countries and gas grids are introduced in an increasing number of
industrializing countries.
fuels occurred in the 1980s, based on CNG and synthetic petrol. At its peak, NG
supplied 30% of New Zealand’s transport fuels. Today, the figure is only about 10%,
and will decline to near zero by 2014, the expected date of gas field exhaustion,
2.3.9. Netherlands
the Dutch vehicle maker (DAF) considers CNG (natural gas) to be very well suited
for use in a private vehicle but autogas (i.e. LPG) to be the best fuel for buses. Their
reasons for this choice are: no need for such a big tank, the composition is clearly
defined and there is no need to have the gas compressed in an expensive compression
station.
2.3.10. Philippines
vehicles following the oil shocks of the 1970s; unfortunately, the ambitious program
was abandoned during the political crisis of the mid-1980s. Today biofuels are
dependence on imported petroleum. This issue is particularly true for the transport
resulting from fossil fuel use is one of the primary environmental considerations
biofuels program of the early 1980s, a biodiesel program can help insulate the
Philippines from world oil price fluctuations, and simultaneously revitalize stagnant
sectors of the economy. These benefits may very well enough to compensate for the
through the Clean Development Mechanism can also be employed to subsidize such
a program. However, this particular program has been introduced to the government
2002)
improving new vehicle fuel efficiency for selected countries (OECD Ministry of
Transport, 2000). There are of course many other guidelines and regulations relating
to efforts to reduce emissions by the transport sector but only those directly related
outweigh the benefits of that program. In the case of fuel efficiency standards, the
tendency to use some of the savings from reduced fuel consumption to drive further
(the “rebound effect”) could outweigh the actual fuel savings achieved. Voluntary
many of which have implications for local air quality. Three of these are covered by
the Euro standards: carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxides, all
measured separately for petrol and diesel cars, and also particulate matter for diesel
Stage II 1997*
Directive 94/12/EC
Petrol 2.2 - - 0.5 -
Diesel, indirect 1.0 - - 0.7 0.08
injection 1.0 - - 0.9 0.10
Diesel, direct injection
Stage IV 2005
Directive 98/69/EC
Petrol 1.0 0.1 0.08 - -
Diesel 0.5 - 0.25 0.3 0.025
Stage III came into force from 1 January 2000 (Directive 98/69) and stage IV
comes into force from1st January 2005. (These stages are often referred o as Euro 3
and Euro 4 respectively). These are maximum permitted mean emissions and as the
table indicates, they are being tightened up over the four legislated stages. Diesel
produces about 15% more CO2 per liter than petrol, but diesel engines on the whole
produce less CO2 per km because the diesel engine is inherently more efficient than
the petrol one. At the same time, diesel-engine vehicles emit around ten times the
mass of fine particles and up to twice the oxides of nitrogen of comparable petrol-
fuelled vehicles. Policy needs, therefore, to be a balanced one, to reflect the impacts
of both local air quality change and global climate change, recognizing that fuels
have different benefits and disadvantages. In Europe, the Directive is part of a trio of
policy approaches, concerned with climate change. These include the voluntary
measures. In the UK, the fiscal measures include differentiated vehicle excise duty,
This chapter compares existing and planned vehicle fuel economy labelling
schemes in several selected countries. Some of the planned schemes within European
countries are refer to earlier drafts of the EU Directive. This is an area of policy that
should considered for every countries around especially for developing countries
that have been rapidly increase in the number of vehicles. The simultaneously survey
in this section gives a dated snapshot of the current situation in the country. So some
of the data given in this study section might be have already change.
Vehicle labelling schemes have been in existence for several years in Sweden
and the United States (both since 1975) and in the UK (since 1983). The American
scheme was amended in 1990 and the Canadian scheme in 1998, in the light of
consumer feedback. There is little evidence of the way these schemes influenced
consumer purchases. Summary of fuel economy energy labels for motor vehicle in
several selected countries is given in Table 2.4 (Brenda et al, 2000). The fuel
economy label for several selected countries is given Figs. 2.1 – 2.9.
Scope As Passenger cars, As New As directive As directive All As directive New cars, New
directive maybe extension to directive cars, passenger vans, light passenger
light commercial vans, cars duty trucks cars
vehicles, 4x4 light duty
trucks
Introduction As 2000 As 1998 1 Jan 2000 As directive 1977 As directive but 1975 To be
date directive directive temporary label implemented
prior to that in EU MS by
January 18th
2001
Mandatory? Yes Yes Yes No Yes Yes No No: Temporary Yes Yes
Units of L/100km L/100km L/100km L/100km mpg L/100km L/100km Not mpg L/100km or
consumption ;mpg shown;L/100km km/l or
in guide combination
Comparison Relative Absolute but Relative by Absolute Absolute Relative by Absolute No scale shown No scale but No
by absolute by size perhaps label size and comparing size and sales but “efficient” range of requirement
measure or and sales changed to sales all cars weighted designation with consumption for
relative scale weighted appliance star style weighted sales weighted shown for comparison
(relative) comparison for all cars of same
same weight size
Other As None As Annual Krona/yr Cost/50000km None None None Units can be
measures of directive directive fuel cost Krona/20000 Cost/litre in gallons
consumption (focus of km and miles if
label) Krona/60000 compatible
km with Directive
80/181/EEC
CO2 Intention No As No Yes (g Yes (g Yes Not shown No – CO2
to include directive CO2/km) CO2/km) (g but intended emissions in
values CO2/km) in guide (g for the g/km
/km) guide
Environment No No No No No No Yes, No In guide by No
al Ranking ranking 1 ACEEE
to 3
Printed Intended Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Guide
Online Guide Intended Yes Yes Yes Intended Yes Yes Intended Yes Not required
but
considered
Fiscal Yes - with No Intended No Yes with fuel Yes with With Intended – No
integration fuel consumption relative enviro. either to CO2
consumpti tax consumption rating or fuel
on tax (green consumption
(NoVA) owner)
New cars 15% 10-15% - 10% - 10% - < 5% 10% N/A
sold to fleet maximum
buyers
2.8. Conclusions
There are not many policies around the world have been implemented for
reducing transport sector energy use other than for motor vehicle. This may be
because the technology replacement for airplane and ship not so progressive such as
for motor vehicle. There was a replacement for railway especially in Japan and
France, however the replacement was not really related to energy but more to
increasing speed of mass railway transport. Therefore the study is more favored to
motor vehicle since they are the major energy consumer in the transportation sector
in this country. Several countries are using the opportunity to experiment with
order to reduce the contribution that new cars are making to environmental
degradation and climate change. The focus on fuel economy provides substantial
benefits to consumers, particularly at a time of rising real oil prices and concerns
As a result of the proposed fuel economy standard and fuel economy label,
consumers will be able to differentiate efficient vehicle with ease. This will create
vehicle gradually. Eventually if these measures are implemented, it will bring great
dependency on petrol fuel could be reduced and greenhouse gas emission could be
mitigated. Additionally, the fuel subsidy on petrol and diesel by government in the
future should be withdrawn; consumers will not pay more ton efficient vehicle unless
it proven will be using lesser amount of fuel and benefit them due to higher cost of
fuel.
References
Hill, NW and Larsen, RP (1990). Draft evaluation of the Federal fuel economy
information program. Interim Report. Argonne National Laboratory. USA
Myint, S. (2001). Transport Energy Use and Vehicle Emissions in Myanmar, ASEAN
energy bulletin, ASEAN Centre for Energy, Jakarta. Vol. 5, No. 1.
Norhayati K., Yuslina M.Y. (2001). Vehicle Emissions, Measures and Challenges in
Malaysia Road Transporttion Sector, ASEAN energy bulletin, ASEAN Centre for
Energy, Jakarta. Vol. 5, No. 1.
Poh K.L and Ang B.W.. (1999). Transportation fuels and policy for Singapore: an
AHP planning approach, Journal. Computer & Industrial Engineering.
Statistics New Zealand (2000) New Zealand Official Yearbook 2000, 102nd edition,
GP Publications, Wellington, NZ.
CHAPTER 3
HISTORICAL AND FUTURE TREND OF ENERGY
DEMAND AND ENVIRONMENTAL EMISSIONS FROM
THE TRANSPORTATION SECTOR
SUMMARY
environment that influent human health, organism growth, climatic changes and so
on. The Kyoto protocol by the United Nation Framework Convention on Climate
emission target about 5% below their 1990 level. About 160 countries including
Malaysia now adopt this protocol. The transportation sector is the main contributors
for emission in the country. In order to calculate the potential emission by this
activity, the type of fuel use should be identified. The study found that there are no
radical changes of fuel used for transportation sector in Malaysia. The data shown
that fuel type use are 53% of petrol, 34% of diesel, 13% of ATF 0.06% Natural Gas,
and 0.03% of electricity in year 2000 to 46% of petrol, 42% of diesel, 12% of ATF,
0.29% Natural Gas and only 0.07% of electricity in the year of 2020. The calculation
is based on emissions for unit fuel used and the type of fuel use and energy demand
in transportation sector. The study found that, the transportation sector has
contributed huge emissions from their activities in this country and the change on
3.1. Introduction
Over the past decades, it has been observed that there is an increasing
atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases such carbon dioxide (CO2) and other
emissions that give negative impact to the environment such as sulfur dioxide (SO 2),
nitrogen oxide (NOx) and carbon monoxide (CO). One of the main contributors of
using fossil fuels as their main energy sources. Burning fossil fuels is releases the
emissions such as mentioned gasses which known can cause greenhouse gas
emission effect, acid rain and other negative impact to environmental and
humankind.
CO2 is a colorless, odorless gas and produced when any form of carbon is
burned in an excess of oxygen. Due to this reason, CO2 greenhouse effect in the
world has been enhanced. This means that the atmosphere is trapping more heat that
has to escape to space. This enhancement has linked the greenhouse effect is causing
global warming. CO2 is the largest contributor of greenhouse effect out of all the
SO2 is a colorless gas, from the family of sulfur oxides (SOx). It reacts on the
atmosphere water droplets. Fossil fuel combustion is the main sources of SO2
NOx are a collective term used of two types of oxides of nitrogen namely nitric
oxide (NO) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2). NO is a colorless, flammable gas with a
slight odor. NO2 is a nonflammable gas with a detectable smell and in certain
concentration will highly toxic, which is in longtime can cause serious lung damage.
NO2 is plays a major role in the atmospheric reactions that produce ozone or smog.
In the atmosphere, NO2 will mix with water vapor producing nitric acid and
fuels. CO consists of a carbon atom and an oxygen atom linked together. During
normal combustion, each atom of carbon in the burning fuel joins with two atoms of
oxygen forming a harmless gas. When there is a lack of oxygen to ensure complete
combustion of the fuel, each atom of carbon links up with only one atom of oxygen
forming CO gas.
Malaysia planning to reduce the production of CO2, SO2, NOx and CO in the
country but the data of production of these gasses is unavailable therefore the study
this country. With exact figure of these emissions, Malaysia can contribute to
undermine the disaster caused by these gases by maximizing of using renewable fuel.
The data used for this study are the fuel consumption data, distribution of fuel
type for transportation sector data and emissions of CO2, SO2, NOx and CO from
fossil fuel for unit fuel consumption in (g/GJ). These data are collected from the
National Energy Balance (2002). All of the survey data are tabulated in Tables 3.1,
Year Total
(ktoe)
1980 2,398
1985 3,477
1990 5,387
1995 7,827
1996 8,951
1997 10,201
1998 9,793
1999 11,393
2000 12,071
2001 13,137
2002 13,442
Type of fossil fuel used in transportation sector in Malaysia are include, Natural
Gas, Aviation gasoline (Avgas), Motor gasoline (Mogas), Aviation Turbine Fuel
(ATF or Avtur), Diesel oil and fuel oil. Natural Gas fuel is a mixture of gaseous
with crude oil in oil fields. Aviation gasoline (Avgas) is a special blended grade of
gasoline for use in aircraft engines of the piston type. Distillation range normally
falls within 30oC and 200oC. Motor gasoline (Mogas) Petroleum distillate for used as
and 250oC. ATF or Avtur is fuel for use in aviation gas turbines mainly refined from
Kerosene. Distillation range within 150oC and 250oC. Diesel oil is Distillation falls
within 200oC to 340oC. Diesel fuel for high speed diesel engines (i.e. automotive) are
more critical on fuel quality than diesel for stationary and marine diesel engines.
Marine oil usually consists of a blend of diesel oil and some residual (asphalt)
material. Meanwhile, fuel oil is heavy distillates, residues or blends is used as fuel
for production of heat and power. Fuel oil production at the refinery is essentially a
processing. Fuel oil viscosities vary widely depending on the blend of distillates and
residues. Transportation sector energy use based on fuel types is given in Table 3.2
The summation of total energy use in Table 3.2 is not very similar to the data in
Table 3.1 is because the are some other types of fuel are not included in the table
such as LPG and Avgas which have been used for transport fuel in a very little
quantity. Time series data for these types of fuels is also unavailable and difficult to
predict.
The type of equivalency in energy data in Table 3.1 and Table 3.2 is given by
tones oil equivalent (toe) unit across different type of fuels. Toe generally refers to
energy content to one metric ton of crude oil. The international table standard defines
one toe as having a net calorific value of 10 Gcal. There are different definitions in
the literature for ton oil equivalent. The one used in this study is the conversion
factor that 1 toe = 10 Gcal = 41.868 GJ (EIA, 2004; IEA, 2002; UN, 1991).
Since the emission per unit energy conversion as well as the usage of
electricity and fuel oil in transportation sector in this country is very little compare to
other types of fuel that are 0.03% each, therefore emission from these fuel are can be
neglected. Even though Natural Gas also has very little percentage compare to other
fuel but this fuel will be considered in this calculation because from the data given in
Table 3.2, Natural Gas seem to be increased rapidly in the future. Emission from
Table 3.3. CO2, SO2, NOx and CO emission from fossil fuel per GJ energy
Fuels Emission
CO2 (kg/GJ) SO2 (g/GJ) NOx (g/GJ) CO (g/GJ)
Petrol 73.00 2.28 1368.76 3490.86
Diesel 74.00 2.34 284.55 102.66
ATF 72.00 2.30 310.16 132.06
NG 53.90 0.00 488.00 214.00
3.3. Methodology
This study uses the scenario approach for the analysis. Schwartz (1996) states
that scenarios are tools for ordering perceptions about alternative future
however can give better decisions about the future. No matter how things might
actually turn out, both the analyst and the policy maker will have a scenario that
resembles a given future and that will help us think through both the opportunities
potential emissions from transportation sector in Malaysia in the future. For this
purpose, initially, the type of fuel use for transportation sector should be identified.
Some of the data are already available but others have to be calculated with respect
to the county fuel consumption trend. Several methods have been employed to
analyze and predict unavailable data. Those are linear, logarithmic, quadratic, power
growth and exponential curve fitting. From the calculation found that the best
method used to estimate the rest of the calculation data is polynomial curve fitting.
The best fit from these methods will be used for this study. The method is an attempt
to describe the relationship between variable X as the function of available data and a
response Y. Which seeks to find some smooth curve that best fit the data, but does
not necessarily pass through any data points. Mathematically, a polynomial of order
Y = C 0 + C1 X + C 2 X 2 + ... + C k X k (3.1)
The pattern of emission due to the fuel changes is potential emissions released
by transportation sector in Malaysia. The common gasses are consisting CO2, SO2,
NOx and CO. Emission pattern of the transportation sector can be calculated by the
following equation:
There are two types of data to be analyzed i.e. fuel consumption data based on
fuel type and emission data of transportation sector. These fuels are Petrol, Diesel,
ATF, Natural Gas and Electricity. The usage of the mentioned fuels is potentially to
be increased in the future. Based on the data shown in Table 3.2, using Eq. (3.1), the
petrol consumption by transportation sector in Malaysia from year 2003 to year 2020
Based on the data shown in Table 3.2, using Eq. (3.1), the diesel fuel
consumption in transportation sector in Malaysia from the year 2003 to 2020 can be
predicted. The total of diesel fuel use in transportation sector can be predicted by the
following equation:
The total of ATF fuel used for transportation sector in Malaysia can be
The total of natural gas fuel uses in transportation sector in Malaysia can be
The results of the predicted data based on Equations (3.3), (3.4), (3.5), (3.6) and
(3.7) from the year 2003 to 2020 are tabulated in Table 3.4.
sector in Malaysia
The predicted fuel percentage trend based on fuel type of energy consumption in
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
ATF
30% NG
Diesel
20%
Elect
10% Petrol
0%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2006
2009
2010
2012
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2005
2007
2008
2011
2013
2020
Figure 3.1. Predicted energy demand based on percentage fuel mix for
The small changes of energy sources for transportation sector have contributed
for emissions pattern in Malaysia. To replace petrol the authority has to increase the
use of diesel. This replacement can be avoided if Malaysian government plans early.
The authority should switch this replacement to another renewable energy sources
such as bio-diesel or hydrogen fuel. Gradual replacement of petrol and diesel with
natural gas is another alternative option since Malaysia has reserve a large amount of
this fuel and that is known that natural gas has lower emission than petrol and diesel.
This can help to reduce emission in the future and also helps to secure Malaysia’s
energy security. This is due to high cost of imported crude oil and higher cost of
conserving emissions in the future. Conducting life cycle cost analysis of conserved
emissions and investment is necessary. However, this analysis is not discussed in this
Koomey (1990).
multiplied by the percentage of fuel mix and the amount of emissions by the fossil
fuel from every unit of energy used. The pattern of emissions by transportation sector
120000000 2700000
108000000 2400000
CO Emission (Ton)
1800000
72000000
1500000
60000000
1200000
48000000
900000
36000000
600000
24000000
12000000 300000
0 0
2000
2004
2018
1996
2020
1980
1990
1998
2002
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
sector in Malaysia
4000 1400000
3500 1200000
SO2
3000 NOx
1000000
SO2 Emission (Ton)
400000
1000
500 200000
0 0
1980
1990
2002
2006
2010
2012
2020
1996
1998
2000
2004
2008
2014
2016
2018
Figure 3.3.Pattern of SO2 and NOx emissions production by transportation
sector in Malaysia
The results from Table 3.5 show that the total emissions production from 2003
to 2020 are about 1,363,734,444 tons of CO2, 42,845 tons of SO2, 15,173,572 tons
of NOx and 32,626,252 tons of CO. These are huge amount of emission for small
developing country like Malaysia. The authorities and policymakers should find a
suitable policy to reduce this emission in order to contribute to Kyoto Protocol and to
3.5. Conclusions
The emissions from transportation sector contributed the largest emission for the
present. The emissions pattern from fossil fuel used in transportation sector can be
reduce by switching from fossil fuel to renewable fuel such as bio-diesel and
hydrogen fuel. This policy offers solution and multiple benefits to utility, society and
most important to protect the environment. Malaysian authority has to find ways to
reduce these emissions, such as by introducing emissions taxation which can be used
to subsidies renewable fuel or lower emission fuel or for replanting threes of the rain
forest in the country. The increase in emissions is suspected due the increase in
vehicle population in Malaysia. The greater the increase in vehicle population, the
higher would be the corresponding emissions. Thus, one would have to conclude that
in order to bring down the emissions to considerably low levels, the growth in
mentioned early is to introduce low emission fuel or to initiate renewable fuel type.
The data from the study can be a basis for calculating cost benefit analysis for
References
Krause F, Koomey J. (1990). Unit costs of carbon savings from urban trees, rural
trees, and electricity conservation: a utility cost perspective, Lawrence Berkeley
Laboratory, University of California, Berkeley.
Schwartz P. (1996). The Art of the Long View: Planning in an uncertain world,
Doubleday, New York.
CHAPTER 4
TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT AND
ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN MALAYSIA
SUMMARY
This chapter discusses the main part of the transport and energy investigations
and projections. The first part of the chapter discusses a review of existing data
available from related authorities and transportation studies that were undertaken to
use in transportation sector data has also been considered. Forecasting future
detail. Furthermore, the uses of the model to analyze energy consumption based on
4.1. Introduction
one of the most energy consuming sector in many countries for years. For example in
range from 24.5% to 27.9% of the total energy consumed (U.S Department of
Energy, 2002). In year 2001, transportation sector was positioned second after
consumes about 20-25% of the total energy in recent years. In Malaysia, total amount
of energy consumed in transportation sector was about 40% of the total energy
consumed compared to 39% in industrial sector and only 13% for commercial and
residential sector. These figures show that energy is essential to transportation and on
smaller scale impacts due to specific transportation facilities and activities. Air
quality is one of the most important impacts of the transportation besides energy
consumption and land use. Noise pollution and reduced water quality due to the
construction and the operation of transportation facilities and modes are also issues
that have to be taken into consideration. The road transport, mainly automobiles is
the major source of CO2 emission as the major global warming gas.
Therefore, sustainability has become the key word in transportation policy goals in
both developed and developing countries. The planning for urban transportation
systems has to address one additional requirement than in the past. The goal of
transportation plan.
the transportation. Although very commonly used, the term mode does not have a
rail, air and water transportation. Sometimes the modes are classified as road, rail,
highway and rail transportation. Table 4.1 highlights the modes in transportation
system.
The need for transportation is derived from the interaction among social and
economic activities dispersed in space. The diversity of these activities and the
transportation needs. The reasons people need to travel are endless and range from
the indispensable quest for food and shelter to the voluntary exercise of mobility for
its own recreational value. Commodities are also transported from place to place for
The need for transportation is manifested in the form of traffic volume, either in
a train.
and goods consumes time and energy, for which a cost is incurred (Kanafani, 1983).
transportation to the socioeconomic activities that generate it. In this process, the
type, level, and location of human activities are related to the demand for movement
of people and goods between the different points in space where these activities take
place. The results of this analysis are the relationships, often in the form of models,
demand analysis, become, then, relationships between traffic volumes, on the one
the other.
consumption of transportation sector and correlating the energy consumed with the
Several scenarios based on transportation modal split are adopted for supporting the
recommendations.
varying modal split was also conducted. The analysis has been carried out with
following tasks formed the main part of the transport and energy investigations and
projections:
energy consumption;
sector;
Use of the model to analyze energy consumption based on the modal split
scenarios.
A wide range of data is necessary for the successful completion of the study
and this has been identified. Some of the data were obtained from government
such as motorcar, motorcycle, bus, commercial vehicle and other vehicles. For modal
split purposes, the vehicles are also classified into private and public services
vehicles. Figure 4.1 shows the types of vehicles on the Federal Highway which
year. The annual growth of motorcars population from year 1991 to 2002 is about
9.53% while for motorization level is 6.78%. Compared to the population annual
growth rate (2.57% in this case), the increase of motorcars ownership is relatively
higher (almost 10% per year). Figure 4.2 illustrates the motorization rates in
Table 4.2 Number of Motorcars and Motorization Rates in Malaysia from 1991 to
2002
Motorcars
Year Population in '000
Number ('000) Motorization Level
1991 18,547 1863.2 100
1992 19,043 1983.0 104
1993 19,564 2132.3 109
1994 20,112 2350.1 117
1995 20,689 2608.6 126
1996 21,169 2946.0 139
1997 21,666 3333.4 154
1998 22,180 3517.5 159
1999 22,712 3852.7 170
2000 23,275 4212.6 181
2001 24,012 4624.6 193
2002 24,527 5069.4 207
Annual Growth (%) 2.57 9.53 6.78
Referring to the figure, it is seen that the rate in 1998 appears relatively lower
compared to the other rates during 1991-2002. This may be due to the impact of
economic downturn during that period which has led to a general reduction in car
utilization.
230
210
MOTORIZATION RATES
190
170
150
130
110
90
70
50
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
YEAR
motorization rates of motorcycles seem relatively higher. However, the annual rate of
increase of motorcycles is lower than motorcars (only 4.95% per year). On the other
Nevertheless, referring to Table 4.2 and Table 4.3 the disparity is not significant
Table 4.3 Number of Motorcycles and Motorization Rates from 1991 to 2002
Motorcycles
Year Population in '000
Number ('000) Motorization Level
1991 18,547 2,595.7 140
1992 19,043 2,762.7 145
1993 19,564 2,970.8 152
1994 20,112 3,297.5 164
1995 20,689 3,608.5 174
1996 21,169 3,951.9 187
1997 21,666 4,329.0 200
1998 22,180 4,692.2 212
1999 22,712 5,082.5 224
2000 23,275 5,356.6 230
2001 24,012 5,609.4 234
2002 24,527 5,842.6 238
Annual Growth (%) 2.57 7.65 4.95
The population of buses, commercial and other vehicles in Malaysia from year
1991 to 2002 is highlighted in Table 4.4. From the table it is seen that bus has the
lowest annual rates amongst the three types of vehicles. Moreover, after comparing
population of all types of vehicles for year 2002, motorcycles accounted the highest
Table 4.4 Number of Buses, Commercial and Other Vehicles from 1991 to 2002
levels on the roads. Almost without exception public transport modes makes use of
road space more efficiently than the private car. If some drivers could be persuaded
to use public transport instead of cars the rest of the car users would benefit from
Table 2.4 detail the modal split between private and public transport modes in
Malaysia from year 1991 to 2002. It needs to be mentioned here that road public
transport modes may also include taxis although this mode is usually referred to as
para-transit.
Motorcars population mentioned earlier involve taxis and hired cars. Referring
to Table 4.5 and Figure 4.3, there is a big gap between the proportion of private cars
and public transport vehicles numbers. For example, in year 2002 the percent share
of private cars is around 97.7% of the total vehicles while the proportion of public
transport vehicles is only about 2.3%. Moreover, public transport share appears to
Table 4.5 Proportion of Private Cars and Public Transport Vehicles from 1991 to
2002
Private Cars
100
90
80
70
60
% SHARE
50
40
30
20
10
Public Transport
0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
YEAR
Road Mileage
Table 4.6 depicts the distribution of road infrastructures for Federal Road and
State Road based on type of pavement. The proportion of paved roads in year 2002
1991 12,623.10 1,639.70 14,262.80 27,448.20 14,026.60 41,474.80 40,071.30 15,666.30 55,737.60
1992 12,972.40 1,368.90 14,341.30 29,162.67 13,987.69 43,150.36 42,135.07 15,356.59 57,491.66
1993 13,589.95 960.19 14,550.14 30,710.20 14,497.26 45,207.46 44,300.15 15,457.45 59,757.60
1994 13,759.77 990.50 14,750.27 31,743.31 14,713.71 46,457.02 45,503.08 15,704.21 61,207.29
1995 13,846.57 990.50 14,837.07 31,743.31 14,713.71 46,457.02 45,589.88 15,704.21 61,294.09
1996 14,423.75 961.42 15,385.17 32,731.64 15,266.32 47,997.96 47,155.39 16,227.74 63,383.13
1997 14,749.16 961.42 15,710.58 33,920.85 15,349.20 49,270.05 48,670.01 16,310.62 64,980.63
1998 15,141.98 938.91 16,080.89 36,262.85 15,283.33 51,546.18 51,404.83 16,222.24 67,627.07
1999 14,782.00 1,299.00 16,081.00 36,263.00 13,846.00 50,109.00 51,045.00 15,145.00 66,190.00
2000 15,920.50 855.42 16,775.92 35,845.39 14,969.15 50,814.54 51,765.89 15,824.57 67,590.46
2001 16,001.08 855.42 16,856.50 41,135.32 15,025.76 56,161.07 57,136.40 15,881.18 73,017.57
2002 16,128.53 855.42 16,983.95 41,457.35 14,961.68 56,419.03 57,585.88 15,817.10 73,402.98
Annual
3.35 0.09 2.53
Growth (%)
Keretapi Tanah Melayu Berhad (KTMB) enjoyed a long and eventful track
record dating back over a century to June 1885. Then the railway system has
(Abdullah, 2003).
From the 1990’s, new entrants into the railway industry took place.
Development of new rail routes was limited to urban centres within the Klang Valley.
The KTM Komuter service provided the Malaysian public of their first taste of
modern urban transport through the introduction of Malaysia’s first electrified train
service on 3rd August 1995. The KTM Komuter service consists of two routes from
Rawang to Seremban and Port Klang to Sentul covering a total distance of 150 km.
The KTM passengers and freight traffic from year 1992 to 2002 are shown in
Table 4.7. In terms of passenger number, it is seen in general that passengers of KTM
Table 4.7 KTMB Passengers and Freight Traffic from year 1992 to 2002
PASSENGER FREIGHT
CONTAINER
YEAR NUMBER PASSENGER-KM TONNE TONNE-KM
( ' 000 ) ( ' 000,000 ) ( ' 000 ) ( ' 000,000 ) TEU
1992 7,614 1,859 3,550 1,081 93,192
1993 6,510 1,553 4,196 1,157 95,569
1994 5,426 1,348 5,164 1,463 121,450
1995 5,146 1,270 5,249 1,416 137,137
1996 6,111 1,370 5,405 1,417 124,588
1997 5,375 1,492 5,106 1,337 135,217
1998 4,924 1,397 3,695 992 112,133
1999 4,344 1,316 3,845 907 106,744
2000 3,825 1,220 5,481 916 255,312
2001 3,511 1,181 4,150 1,094 149,669
2002 3,437 1,123 3,741 1,107 262,478
Apart from KTM Komuter, other Klang Valley rail operators such as PUTRA
and STAR Light Rail Transit (LRT), ERL and KL-Monorail converge at KL Sentral.
The STAR LRT was fully completed in September 1998 and covers a route length of
27 km from Ampang to Sentul Timur and Sri Petaling to Sentul Timur. Another
addition to Klang rail showcase was the PUTRA LRT. Running on both elevated and
underground tracks, PUTRA has been operating since full completion in June 1999
In the meantime, the Express Rail Link (ERL) interface directly with the Kuala
Lumpur International Airport (KLIA) to offer airline passenger seamless rail to air
transfers. In addition to world-class comfort and convenience, the ERL service also
In addition, the latest project of rail based system is the KL Monorail, which is
a service which connects passengers to the most popular shopping areas within Kuala
The Integrated Rail Services (KTM Komuter, PUTRA and STAR LRT, ERL
and KL Monorail) route is depicted in Figure 4.4 while Figure 4.5 depicts the
average daily passenger traffic of the LRT from year 1998 to 2003. Referring to the
figure it is seen that the number of passengers is increasing during the period. The
LEGEND
The integrated rail services are complemented with supporting facilities such as
feeder bus and park and ride system as depicted in Figure 4.6.
Based on the rail passengers data as mentioned earlier, the total rail passengers
from year 1998 to 2002 could be summarized as in Table 4.8. From the table, it is
observed that the total number of rail passengers in year 2002 is more than 56.3
million passengers and most of them are using LRT (93.9%). Moreover, there is a
year. This may be due to the operation of PUTRA LRT since June 1999.
The main air transportation system includes commercial airlines and air freight
travel. In addition, some intercity freight is shipped by air. The air transportation
Table 4.9 and Table 4.10 illustrate the air traffic (passenger and/or cargo) at
Malaysian airports during 1991 to 2002. Table 4.11 to Table 4.16 highlights the
Table 4.9 Air Traffic at Public-use Airports in Malaysia from year 1991 to 2002
Referring to Table 4.9 above, both passenger and cargo is on the increase.
Freight air carriers have the highest annual growth of 9.63% per year during 1991 –
2002. The detail of number of passengers served based on airports in Malaysia are
Table 4.10 Air Passengers Traffic at Public-use Airports in Malaysia from year 1990 to 2002
AIRPORTS 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
JUMLAH 17,209,118 19,951,836 21,745,245 22,880,336 24,192,387 26,340,287 28,873,231 31,275,494 27,007,630 28,322,902 31,663,342 31,386,848 32,680,018
MEDINAH 5,193 26,803 31,996 6,641 20,188 26,829 7,059 225,853,947 189,381,033
ABU DHABI 15,933 15,932 31,865 9,370 10,711 20,081 5,586 177,999,604 112,173,546
BEIRUT 9,070 9,658 18,728 12,818 11,445 24,263 7,652 143,299,032 185,650,599
CAIRO 6,443 6,628 13,071 10,773 11,476 22,249 7,962 104,073,337 177,150,002
MUSCAT 0 5 5 282 315 597 5,210 26,050 3,110,418
DOHA 18,324 17,387 35,711 16,981 16,567 33,548 5,911 211,090,221 198,304,576
SANAA 3,121 2,884 6,005 3,253 2,874 6,127 6,447 38,712,868 39,499,374
LONDON 264,962 270,125 535,087 263,662 253,117 516,779 10,605 5,674,447,276 5,480,296,080
AMSTERDAM 110,213 118,074 228,287 125,447 126,403 251,850 10,234 2,336,231,721 2,577,369,535
FRANKFURT 63,634 68,468 132,102 59,837 62,947 122,784 9,998 1,320,737,500 1,227,577,426
PARIS 42,523 42,304 84,827 48,577 46,859 95,436 10,440 885,577,084 996,332,944
ROME 18,506 18,269 36,775 23,892 23,668 47,560 9,728 357,763,208 462,684,383
MANCHESTER 36,729 38,343 75,072 49,701 50,097 99,798 10,681 801,820,910 1,065,911,700
VIENNA 24,988 33,518 58,506 23,396 28,085 51,481 9,416 550,893,637 484,746,100
ZURICH 27,955 27,097 55,052 27,710 28,744 56,454 10,017 551,473,391 565,517,670
ISTANBUL 14,445 15,225 29,670 7,806 7,798 15,604 8,375 248,497,367 130,689,347
LOS ANGELES 62,375 63,208 125,583 47,206 50,025 97,231 14,157 1,777,915,025 1,376,527,522
NEW YORK 12,342 11,665 24,007 15,649 16,864 32,513 15,167 364,105,039 493,112,306
BUENOS AIRES 4,117 3,868 7,985 7,468 8,130 15,598 15,900 126,963,276 248,011,669
CAPE TOWN 10,481 12,720 23,201 12,832 13,618 26,450 9,543 221,397,385 252,401,225
J OHANNESBURG 19,733 19,977 39,710 21,167 20,236 41,403 8,502 337,626,539 352,020,942
MAURITIUS 8,511 10,100 18,611 6,956 6,887 13,843 5,445 101,341,097 75,378,261
TOTAL 10,670,727 9,981,499 40,040,240,164 39,489,928,630
coastwise shipping specializes in bulk goods while foreign going shipping carries all
types of cargo. This system provides low speed and relatively low accessibility, but
shipping. The types of ship that operated in Malaysian ports includes oil tanker,
liquefied gas carriers, oil carriers, cargo carriers, passenger carriers, container ships
and vehicle carriers. There are fourteen (14) ports throughput cargo carriers with
total cargo as shown in Table 4.17. It is seen also that cargo carriers have annual
Table 4.17 Total Cargo Throughput by Ports from year 1991 to 2002
PORT 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Annual Growth Rate (% ) = 6.33
KELANG 26,296 28,403 30,788 33,857 40,034 49,025 55,767 47,342 60,970 65,277 70,150 82,271
PULAU PINANG 12,062 13,219 14,362 15,135 16,675 17,501 19,693 16,476 18,760 20,473 20,453 21,800
JOHOR 10,711 10,741 11,798 13,223 16,504 19,017 20,805 19,322 21,512 24,536 27,306 29,019
KUANTAN 2,842 2,877 3,401 4,159 4,208 5,052 5,855 5,500 5,510 6,027 7,532 8,999
BINTULU 12,931 13,590 14,698 15,284 18,639 21,816 24,586 23,342 23,641 24,897 25,210 25,592
TG.BRUAS 534 531 538 461 389 510 579 710 746 818 679 708
KUCHING 2,939 3,138 3,396 3,726 4,282 5,658 6,055 4,051 4,743 5,301 5,368 5,983
MIRI 9,774 8,966 7,109 6,722 7,123 6,536 4,403 4,270 6,867 6,033 5,813 5,692
RAJANG 5,424 5,890 5,543 5,789 5,946 5,971 5,576 4,534 5,107 5,582 5,052 4,691
PEL-PEL SABAH 13,679 14,159 13,168 14,579 16,257 17,455 19,608 16,595 16,789 18,074 17,831 19,018
PORT DICKSON 12,195 11,310 13,081 12,984 12,215 13,677 13,853 12,395 10,122 7,829 12,842 12,595
KEMAMAN 1,700 1,019 2,542 1,960 2,568 2,538 3,631 1,798 2,001 2,155 2,054 1,480
TELUK EWA 1,544 1,560 1,713 2,053 2,538 4,758 3,234 2,964 2,586 3,167 3,589 3,487
TANJUNG PELEPAS 248 n.a n.a
TOTAL 112,631 115,403 122,137 129,932 147,378 169,514 183,645 159,299 179,354 190,417 203,879 221,335
the transportation modes in Malaysia. In year 2002, more than 85% of passengers
were carried by road transport and about 14% by rail services. The air transport mode
only serves about 0.24% of the total daily passengers. The transport mode share for
Air
Rail
0.24%
14.05%
Road
85.71%
Transport Mode Share in 2002
According to Road Transport Department for year 1999, 2000 and 2002, about
57% of the total new vehicles registered is passenger car which 99.6% uses petrol
and only 0.4% passenger car uses diesel. On the other hand, for bus registration, the
proportion of bus is only 0.03% of the total vehicles and 90.5% of the bus using
diesel. The number of new vehicle registration in year 1999, 2000 and 2002 based on
4.2.7 Population
million populations in 2002. The annual population growth rate during the period
1991 to 2002 is around 2.57%. As seen in Table 4.19, population of Malaysia has
been growing from 18.5 million in 1991 to 24.5 million in 2002. It means the
1 1991 18,547
2 1992 19,043
3 1993 19,564
4 1994 20,112
5 1995 20,689
6 1996 21,169
7 1997 21,666
8 1998 22,180
9 1999 22,712
10 2000 23,275
11 2001 24,012
12 2002 24,527
Annual Growth (%) 2.57
The Gross Domestic Products (GDP) and the Gross Domestic Products (GDP)
per Capita of Malaysia during year 1991 to 2002 periods are shown in Table 4.20.
The GDP annual rate is 5.95% while GDP per Capita is 3.30%.
4.2.9 Employment
Referring to Table 4.21 it can be seen that in Malaysia, the unemployment rates
decrease 0.55% per year as the result of 3.08% annual growth rate of employment.
Number of employment in 2002 achieved 9.5 million from only 7.0 million in 1992.
Compared to the population annual growth rate of 2.57%, the employment rate is
relatively higher.
The HNDP (Highway Network Development Plan) Study was conducted from
May 1991 to February 1993 with the technical cooperation from the Government of
Japan (JICA – Japan International Cooperation Agency). The HNDP Study targeted
the following two objectives covering the whole of Malaysia (Peninsular Malaysia,
2010;
To prioritize new and improved linkages in the planned network with respect to
program.
and incorporated as the basic guidelines for the future development of highways in
the Mid-Term Review of the Sixth Malaysian Plan. Subsequently, the Government of
Malaysia and the Government of Japan through JICA had conducted another
Environmental Improvement in Kuala Lumpur. The study started in March 1997 and
ended in February 1999. The study is also called as “Strategies for Managing Urban
“SMURT-KL”.
The target year of the Master Plan was defined as the year 2020, with and
The trip production is defined as the process of estimating the total trip
generated within the study area. Trips are usually thought of as being two-way
normally stratified by purpose: for each trip type, the number produced in a
particular zone is assumed to depend on the size and characteristics of the zone’s
resident population. Where there is more than one predictive factor (x), this is
y = α 0 + α 1 x1 + α 2 x 2 + . . . + α k x k (3.1)
In the HNDP Study, the multiple linear regression is selected over other
method (such as grow factor method, trip production rate method, or the vehicle
based method) to model trip production. This is due to the high correlation and no
major difference among the results from the total passenger and the freight demand
and the low reliability as the growth factor and the trip production method. The
multiple regression utilize the population, employment, GDP, and GDP per capita.
The trip production model as well as the correlation coefficient from the HNDP
The trip generation is defined as the number of trips generated by each traffic
zones per unit of time and the trip attraction is defined as those attracted be each
traffic zone per unit of time in the study area. The total trip generation and attraction
by zone is controlled by trip production whereby passenger and the freight are
The trip generation step is to estimate the number of vehicle-trips, which will
begin or end in each traffic analysis zone within a study area for a typical day of the
target year. Each trip has two ends, which are described in terms of trip purposes
such as work trips, school trips, shopping trips, and social or recreational trips. Trip
home-based. A home-based trip consists of trips that either begin or end at a resident
zone. For example, a home-based work trip would be considered to have a trip end
produced in the resident zone and attracted to the work zone. A non-home-based trip
consists of trips that neither begin nor end at a resident zone. Commonly used
methods for trip generation include regression models, trip-rate analysis models, and
cross-classification models.
The equations for the tip Generation and Attraction Model for the Macro and
the Micro Level is shown in Table 4.23 and Table 4.24 respectively. Table 4.25
Table 4.23 General Equation for the Trip Generation/Attraction Model (Macro Level)
Table 4.24 General Equation for the Trip Generation/Attraction Model (Micro Level)
POP = Population
Car 1.8 -
Bus 28 -
Lorry - 1.9
Source: HDNP Study, 1991
Besides providing the trip production and as well as the trip generation and trip
attraction, the HNDP Study also highlighted the average daily trip production rates as
Table 4.26 Average Daily Trip Production Rates by Vehicle Type in Malaysia
vehicles by areas that is obtained from the analysis of number of vehicles by states.
The areas stated here is for Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah and Sarawak. The linear
Referring to SMURT-KL study, the share of the public mode of transport in the
Kuala Lumpur metropolitan area was estimated at 24.0 percent in 2000, 23.6 percent
in 2010, and 25.6 percent in 2020 under the Base case (as shown in Table 4.28). In
Base case, both highway and public transportation network was assumed to have
The likely future changes in the travel demand for each traffic zone in the study
area are assessed by the examination of the control totals for the study area. The
control total is established by making the appraisal of the changes in the following
Table 4.29 shows the forecasted population in Malaysia. The average annual
population growth for the period 1991 – 2002 was approximately 2.57%. The
population of the country is expected to reach 38.748 million by the year 2020.
Meanwhile, Table 4.30 provides the forecasted employment within the study area.
The employment is expected to reach 16.465 million people by the year 2020 with an
average annual growth rate of 3.08%. For the Gross Domestic Product, the forecasted
1 2005 26,469
2 2010 30,055
3 2015 34,126
4 2020 38,748
Table 4.31 Projected Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from year 2005 to 2020
Referring to the HNDP Study as mentioned above, there are several models for
estimating the trip generation within the study area. Trip generation could be
estimated in the unit of person trips (for people movement) and tonnage (for goods
movement) and sometimes in vehicular units depending on the purposes of the study.
passenger car, bus and commercial vehicles. Three types of techniques are used in
the first method, the regression model as depicted in Table 4.22 was utilized. From
these regression models, the number of passengers is obtained and then using the
In the second method, the model for forecasting number of vehicles as shown
in Table 4.27 was utilized. In this method the number of vehicles was determined
and/or passengers based on the existing data. However, the incorporated parameters
in the models still using the parameters of the models from the HNDP study. This is
because the parameters that significantly affected the number of vehicles and/or
for determining the number of vehicles were compared. Moreover, the method used
to judge whether one technique is better than the other is based on the disparity of the
numbers from modeled versus observed and also the linear correlation of the model.
4.5.1 Method 1
Table 4.32, Table 4.33, and Table 4.34 show the number of observed and
modeled vehicles from year 1991 to 2002 by utilizing Method 1. The table also
provides the annual growth rates between the observed and modeled data. Figure 4.8,
Figure 4.9, and Figure 4.10 depict the scatter-plot and R-square of observed and
P.Car ('000)
Year
Observed Modelled
1991 1,863.2 2,770.1
1992 1,983.0 2,980.0
1993 2,132.3 3,231.4
1994 2,350.1 3,489.2
1995 2,608.6 3,787.3
1996 2,946.0 4,114.1
1997 3,333.4 4,381.5
1998 3,517.5 4,133.5
1999 3,852.7 4,360.9
2000 4,212.6 4,688.5
2001 4,624.6 4,729.5
2002 5,069.4 4,909.7
Annual Growth (%) 9.53 5.34
Passenger Car
Method 1
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
m
u
rM
lN
bd
o
e
R Sq Linear = 0.913
1000
Figure 4.8 Scatter-plot of Observed vs. Modeled Passenger Car Volumes (Method 1)
Bus
Year
Observed Modelled
1991 26,147 61,784
1992 27,827 64,447
1993 29,924 67,418
1994 33,529 70,506
1995 36,000 73,906
1996 38,965 77,176
1997 43,444 80,165
1998 45,643 80,315
1999 47,674 83,184
2000 48,662 86,708
2001 49,771 89,147
2002 51,158 91,700
Annual Growth (%) 6.29 3.66
Bus
Method 1
100000
90000
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
m
u
rsM
lN
bd
o
e
10000
Commercial
Year
Observed Modelled
1992 333,674 551,007
1993 358,808 608,631
1995 440,723 738,249
1996 512,165 813,783
1997 574,622 876,393
1998 599,149 807,991
1999 642,976 859,772
2000 665,284 935,794
2001 689,668 938,137
2002 713,148 978,992
Annual Growth (%) 7.89 5.92
Commercial
Method 1
1600000
1500000
1400000
1300000
1200000
1100000
1000000
900000
800000
700000
600000
500000
m
u
rM
lN
bd
o
e
400000
300000 R Sq Linear = 0.936
200000
100000
0
4.5.2 Method 2
Similar to the analysis in Method 1, in this method the observed and modeled
volumes were analyzed. Table 4.35, Table 4.36, and Table 4.37 show the number of
observed and modeled vehicles form year 1991 to 2002. While Figure 4.11, Figure
4.12, and Figure 4.13 depict the scatter-plot and R-square of observed and modeled
number of vehicles.
P.Car ('000)
Year
Observed Modelled
1991 1,863.2 2,884.9
1992 1,983.0 3,142.2
1993 2,132.3 3,454.3
1994 2,350.1 3,773.5
1995 2,608.6 4,145.4
1996 2,946.0 4,561.2
1997 3,333.4 4,896.0
1998 3,517.5 4,534.9
1999 3,852.7 4,813.9
2000 4,212.6 5,226.4
2001 4,624.6 5,243.4
2002 5,069.4 5,459.6
Annual Growth (%) 9.53 5.97
Passenger Car
Method 2
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
m
u
rsM
lN
bd
o
e
R Sq Linear = 0.895
1000
Bus
Year
Observed Modelled
1991 26,147 29,834
1992 27,827 30,636
1993 29,924 31,479
1994 33,529 32,365
1995 36,000 33,298
1996 38,965 34,075
1997 43,444 34,879
1998 45,643 35,710
1999 47,674 36,571
2000 48,662 37,481
2001 49,771 38,673
2002 51,158 39,506
Annual Growth (%) 6.29 2.59
Bus
Method 2
100000
90000
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
m
u
rsM
lN
bd
o
e
10000
Commercial
Year
Observed Modelled
1991 313,514 837,768
1992 333,674 912,365
1993 358,808 1,002,822
1994 393,833 1,095,375
1995 440,723 1,203,210
1996 512,165 1,323,744
1997 574,622 1,420,811
1998 599,149 1,316,115
1999 642,976 1,397,004
2000 665,284 1,516,597
2001 689,668 1,521,522
2002 713,148 1,584,216
Annual Growth (%) 7.76 5.96
Commercial
Method 2
1600000
1500000
1400000
1300000
1200000
1100000
1000000
900000
800000
700000
600000
500000
m
u
rM
lN
bd
o
e
400000
300000 R Sq Linear = 0.946
200000
100000
0
4.5.3 Method 3
number of vehicles and/or passengers based on the existing data. Nevertheless, the
parameters in the models are the same as that used in the HNDP study. The
parameters involve population, GDP and GDP per capita. The multiple linear
The available historical number of vehicles and passengers from year 1991 to
2002 had been analyzed to develop the model. The number of vehicles consists of
number of passenger cars, buses, and commercial vehicles. As for passenger data, the
vehicles, and also numbers of rail and air transport passengers till year 2002.
Table 4.38 No. of Cars, Buses and Commercial Vehicle Year 1991 to 2002
The trip generation models for Method 3 are summarized in Table 4.41. These
regression models are used to obtain the numbers of passenger car, bus and lorry as
well as the number of rail and air transport passengers per day.
The following Table 4.42, Table 4.43, and Table 4.44 show the number of
Figure 4.15, and Figure 4.16 depict the scatter-plot and R-square of observed and
P.Car ('000)
Year
Observed Modelled
1991 1,863.2 1,637.5
1992 1,983.0 1,892.9
1993 2,132.3 2,149.4
1994 2,350.1 2,421.7
1995 2,608.6 2,698.2
1996 2,946.0 2,898.0
1997 3,333.4 3,132.0
1998 3,517.5 3,575.4
1999 3,852.7 3,848.6
2000 4,212.6 4,104.3
2001 4,624.6 4,587.9
2002 5,069.4 4,867.6
Annual Growth (%) 9.53 10.41
Passenger Car
Method 3
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
m
u
rM
lN
bd
o
e
R Sq Linear = 0.989
1000
Bus
Year
Observed Modelled
1991 26,147 25,796
1992 27,827 28,244
1993 29,924 30,985
1994 33,529 33,832
1995 36,000 36,976
1996 38,965 40,026
1997 43,444 42,793
1998 45,643 42,763
1999 47,674 45,400
2000 48,662 48,670
2001 49,771 50,813
2002 51,158 53,146
Annual Growth (%) 6.29 6.79
Bus
Method 3
100000
90000
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000
m
30000
b
u
rM
lN
d
o
e
10000
Commercial
Year
Observed Modelled
1991 313,514 277,863
1992 333,674 320,495
1993 358,808 372,191
1994 393,833 425,085
1995 440,723 486,712
1996 512,165 555,597
1997 574,622 611,070
1998 599,149 551,237
1999 642,976 597,464
2000 665,284 665,812
2001 689,668 668,626
2002 713,148 704,455
Annual Growth (%) 7.76 8.83
Commercial
Method 3
1600000
1400000
1200000
1000000
800000
600000
m
u
rM
lN
bd
o
e
400000
R Sq Linear = 0.946
200000
According to the simple linear regression of the three methods that had been
employed as shown in Table 4.45, it could be concluded that all methods have good
fitness with the observed volumes (in this case, the observed data was obtained from
However, as can be observed from the scatter-plots of the observed and the
predicted volumes for Method 1 and Method 2, there is a correction factor that needs
observed volumes. Although the R-square values are showing good correlation
between the respective sets of data, however, the models do not give good prediction
of the forecasted volumes. Methods 1 and 2 based on models derived from the
HNDP study appear not to be able to give a good prediction of the forecasted
volumes.
Results obtained by using the models developed based on more recent data as
shown in Method 3 indicate less disparity between the modeled and the observed
Types of
Coeffi-
Transport Method Formula
cient
Mode
The traffic projections shall take into account present and potential traffic
generating sources based on existing and future economic development plans, land
use development plans as well as committed and future road schemes, population and
As mentioned earlier, the model was developed based on the HNDP Study in
year 1991 and the validation process utilized the data from year 1991 to 2002.
generation as well as taking into consideration the model validation using the
existing data, the HNDP 1991 regression model was revised. The new regression
models for forecasting the future trip generation was formulated in Method 3 of this
study. After employing the model and the forecasted population and socioeconomic
data in future, the future trip generation was obtained. Numbers of passengers by
Nothing Scenario”. In this scenario the proportion of passengers using private and
public modes was based on the trends in year 1991 to 2002. As seen in Table 5.16,
the proportion of passengers using passenger car is about 80% of the total passengers
estimated that passenger using private car only at 79.66% of the total passengers by
year 2020.
According to Table 4.47, it could be seen that passenger car has the highest
proportion in transport modal split in future. However, this would occur if there is no
adjustment from the transport authority in terms of the share of modal usage.
The transport authorities had set up a target for modal split amongst the land
transport modes, particularly for private and public transport (bus and rail). For
target. Therefore, some scenarios of transport modal split between passenger car and
public transport need to be set up in order to illustrate the impact of modal share on
scenarios of modal split as well as the number of vehicles the future transport
The adopted future modal split scenarios for this study is shown in Table 4.48.
The scenarios based on the future modal split scenarios estimated in SMURT-KL
study under Base Case option. The modal split target of 40 (P.Car) : 60 (Public) by
The following tables show the forecasted no. of passengers as well as the
Table 4.49 Forecasted No. of Vehicles by Type of Modes (Do Nothing Scenario)
Table 4.50 Forecasted No. of Vehicles by Type of Modes (Do Something Scenario)
4.5.8 Vehicle-Kilometer
According to HNDP Study, the mean trip length for the total vehicle population
is 17.2 km. The trip length distribution for passenger car and taxi display a similar
pattern to the total. For goods vehicle, the average trip length is found to be about
21.5 km. Table 4.52 illustrates the forecasted Vehicle-km for “Do Nothing Scenario”
multiplying the trip length of vehicle traveling with the fuel consumed per vehicle-
km. The fuel consumption of passenger car, bus and lorry adopted in this study is
based on the average fuel consumption per vehicle-km analyzed from the U.S.
Highway Statistics, 2000. Table 4.54 and Table 4.55 provide details on the data.
Registration Veh-Travel Fuel Use Fuel Use per Fuel Use per
YEAR
(thousands) (million miles) (million gallons) Veh-mile (gallon) Veh-km (liter)
1990 133,700 1,408,266 69,568 0.04940 0.11620
1991 128,300 1,358,185 64,318 0.04736 0.11139
1992 126,581 1,371,569 65,436 0.04771 0.11222
1993 127,327 1,374,709 67,047 0.04877 0.11472
1994 127,883 1,406,089 67,874 0.04827 0.11354
1995 128,387 1,438,294 68,072 0.04733 0.11133
1996 129,728 1,469,854 69,221 0.04709 0.11077
1997 129,749 1,502,556 69,892 0.04652 0.10941
1998 131,839 1,549,577 71,695 0.04627 0.10883
1999 132,432 1,569,100 73,283 0.04670 0.10986
2000 133,621 1,601,914 72,916 0.04552 0.10707
Annual Growth (%) -0.01 1.30 0.47 -0.82 -0.82
Registration Veh-Travel Fuel Use Fuel Use per Fuel Use per
YEAR
(thousands) (million miles) (million gallons) Veh-mile (gallon) Veh-km (liter)
1990 48,275 574,571 35,611 0.06198 0.14579
1991 53,033 649,394 38,217 0.05885 0.13843
1992 57,091 706,863 40,929 0.05790 0.13620
1993 59,994 745,750 42,851 0.05746 0.13516
1994 62,904 764,634 44,112 0.05769 0.13570
1995 65,738 790,029 45,605 0.05773 0.13578
1996 69,134 816,540 47,354 0.05799 0.13641
1997 70,224 850,739 49,389 0.05805 0.13656
1998 71,330 868,175 50,462 0.05812 0.13672
1999 75,356 901,022 52,859 0.05867 0.13799
2000 79,085 924,018 52,832 0.05718 0.13449
Annual Growth (%) 5.06 4.87 4.02 -0.80 -0.80
Referring to the data from the Road Transport Department 1999 – 2002, for the
new vehicle registration, 57.23% of the total vehicles are passenger car using petrol
while 0.22% is passenger car using diesel. Bus is only 0.03% of the total vehicle
registered with more then 90% of the bus using diesel. Table 4.56 and 4.57 depicts
the new vehicle registration based on fuel type in year 1999, 2000 and 2002
respectively.
and Table 4.59. While the total fuel consumption by passenger car, bus and lorry is
determined as in Table 4.60 and Table 4.61. The fuel consumption is also based on
Figure 4.17 and Figure 4.18 present the forecasted total petrol and diesel
consumed by the vehicles in year 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020 respectively. From the
figures, it is seen that if the modal split set up is achieved (by year 2020), the petrol
consumption is not quite significant although the modal split scenario is achieved.
The reduction of diesel consumption may be only around 1.9%. The significant
decrease of petrol consumption would occur if the set up modal split target of 40
split, the petrol consumption may be reduced by about 40% and although it is a
41,729,059
2020 68,587,030
65,389,093
2015 56,887,866
54,044,294
YEAR
2010 46,022,786
43,041,478
TARGET 40:60
28,513,524
2020 22,460,439
22,878,930
2015 16,287,814
16,706,020
YEAR
2010 11,703,640
12,109,394
TARGET 40:60
2005 8,292,700
DO NOTHING
8,610,760
DO SOMETHING
DIESEL (LITER/DAY)
In this study, the future trip generation (both person trips and vehicle trips) was
obtained by employing the trip generation model that was formulated in the previous
studies. By utilizing the models, besides having the number of trips, several trips
characteristics of the study area was also established. This involves the average travel
kilometer is the key point in estimating the energy consumed in transportation sector.
Table 4.62 below shows the energy use by various types of vehicles based on
Energy Use
No. Vehicle Type
(btu/passenger-mile)
1 Single-occupancy automobile 8,360
2 New heavy rail 3,080
3 Carpool 2,390
4 Old heavy rail (existing) 2,320
5 Light rail transit 2,590
6 Bus 1,420
7 Aircraft* 3,666
Source: Grava (2003), * Davis et al (2002)
In Section 4.6.1 of this report, the forecasted total fuel consumption by road
transport modes till year 2020 has been highlighted. The fuel consumption consists
of petrol and diesel. Referring to Davis et al (2002) there is about 125,000 btu in one
gallon gasoline and 138,700 btu in one gallon diesel. On the other hand, the National
Energy Balance (2000) states that 1000 toe = 43.3 TJ petrol and 1000 toe = 42.496
TJ diesel. After adopting that 1 btu = 1,055 joule, the total energy consumed in road
transport sector based on both scenarios could be illustrated as in Figure 7.1 and 7.2.
Referring to Figure 4.19 and 4.20, it is seen that in “Do Nothing” scenario the
consumption of petrol would achieve 20,142 ktoe/year and diesel about 7,457
ktoe/year by 2020. While the consumption of petrol would only about 19,203
12,254
2020 20,142
19,203
2015 16,706
15,871
YEAR
2010 13,515
12,640
TARGET 40:60
9,467
2020 7,457
7,596
2015 5,408
5,547
YEAR
2010 3,886
4,021
TARGET 40:60
2005 2,753
DO NOTHING
2,859
DO SOMETHING
DIESEL (ktoe/year)
Figure 4.20 shows the forecasted energy consumed by rail transport until year
2020. The rail transport mode involves the intercity, commuter and transit. Most of
the rail transport passengers choose transit as their transport mode. Referring to
KTMB data, it was estimated that the intercity passenger travel distance is about
300km. While the travel distance for transit passengers was estimated only 10km in
average.
According to the data from Malaysia Airports Berhad, it was estimated that the
average travel distance for domestic flights is 780km. While for international flights
the average travel distance achieve 3,350km. It needs to be emphasised here that the
calculation of the forecasted fuel consumption of air transport involve departure and
arrival passengers. The forecasted energy consumed by the air transport till year
This section summarizes the forecasted total energy use by road, rail and air
transport mode in Malaysia up to the next twenty years. Table 4.65 and Table 4.66
tabulated the total energy use based on the Do Nothing and Do Something scenarios.
While Figures 4.21 and 4.22 shows the energy use in graph format.
22,114
17,401
13,295
6,404
5,326
3,629 4,409
YEAR
2005 2010 2015 2020
21,418
16,660
12,572
6,404
5,326
3,629 4,409
YEAR
2005 2010 2015 2020
Several points could be concluded from the energy use in the transportation
sector study that has been successfully completed. The conclusions are highlighted as
follows:
In recent times, the transportation sector accounts for about 40% of the total
The motorization levels of motorcars in the past ten years increase with 6.78%
vehicles has been increasing, the proportion of the public transport vehicles to
all vehicles is decreasing. The proportion of public vehicles is only 2.33% of the
It is only 0.4% of the total new registered passenger car (1999-2002) using
The transport modal share in 2002 shows that 85.71% of passengers is served by
road transport. The rail passengers is about 14.05% while air transport carries
Based on the trip generation model developed in this study which is based on
the model from the HNDP Study in 1991, it is forecasted that more than 25.8
million person trips per day may use the transportation modes by year 2020 and
around 91 million liters per day while for Do Something scenario is more than
If a 40 : 60 modal split between Passenger Car and Public transport (Bus + Rail)
is achieved in year 2020, the petrol consumption will reduce significantly (up to
modal split (if this is achieved), the rail services system would have to cope with
It was forecasted that the total energy use by road, rail and air transport modes
would achieve 33,451 ktoe by year 2020 (Do Something Scenario) with the
proportion of road transport 80.1%, rail 0.7%, and air transport 19.2%.
The study has shown that a shift in the number of passengers from passenger car
to public transport would reduce the fuel consumption and as well as the
emission levels. Therefore, all the factors that may increase the demand for
here that improvement to the public transport system has to be embarked upon on
Besides the socioeconomic variables, there are supply variables that could
persuade the people to choose their transport modes. The transport authorities
and particularly the rail services operator need to consider these variables in their
policy during the planning and operation of rail system. The supply variables
travel cost;
References
Davis et al, (2002), Transportation Energy Data Book: Edition 22, for U.S.
Department of Energy.
Montgomery, D. C. and Runger G. C., (2003), Applied Statistics and Probability for
Engineers, 3rd Edition, John Wiley & Sons, New York.
Ortuzar, J. D. and Willumsen, L. G., (1990), Modelling Transport, John Wiley &
Sons, New York.
Yusoff, Z. M., (2003), Mobility of People: LRT Experience, Paper Presented in Best
Practices Engineering Conference, 8-9 September 2003, Kuala Lumpur.
CHAPTER 5
FEASIBILITY AND POTENTIAL OF
SWITCHING TO NGV FOR COMMERCIAL VEHICLES
IN MALAYSIA
SUMMARY
Due to rapid economic growth, the usage of fuel especially petrol and diesel for
transportation sector has increased tremendously. This has caused Malaysian oil
reserve to decrease rapidly over the past decade. As a result, the government is
encouraging the use of alternative fuel in the transportation sector. One of the
proposals is the encouragement to use natural gas (NG) as an alternative fuel and
proposing a suitable policy for it. Study on natural gas vehicle (NGV) has been
undertaken to identify the deficiency and to improve the previous policies. This study
involved respondents (consumers) from public transports (taxi driver, taxi and bus
companies) and owners of pump station to identify their opinion about the policy.
including market activities and the future prospects of NGV in Malaysia are
5.1. Introduction
Natural gas is categorized as a fossil fuel because it was formed from the
remains of tiny sea animals and plants from 200-400 million year ago. The pressure
combined with the heat of earth transforms this organic mixture into petroleum and
natural gas. Its main ingredient is methane, therefore its can be used as an alternative
fuel for transport. There are many advantages of natural gas compared to petrol and
diesel as a fuel. The primary advantages are the fact that natural gas can improve
thermal efficiency and reduce emissions of the engine. It also helps to curb the
growing air pollution and the greenhouse effect because it is cleaner and also cheaper
Argentina, and Brazil and also in Pakistan are already using natural gas as a fuel.
factors. Natural gas has been used as a fuel for transport since 1920’s. To date, Italy
has about 240 compressed natural gas (CNG) refuelling station and about 300,000
NGVs on the road. New Zealand has about 250,000 vehicles converted to natural gas
and refuelling network of about 250 stations. Argentina being at the fore front of the
NGV league has 700,000 NGVs and has over 800 refuelling stations. Other country
like Thailand, Indonesia, Bangladesh, India, USA, Canada, France, United Kingdom,
because it will reduce operation cost and reduces foreign exchange of oil import. The
economic advantage of using natural gas as a vehicular fuel is more apparent in fleet
operations, where a vehicle travels the same or similar route everyday, and returns to
the same location for refuelling. Beside that natural gas is also capable of making the
environment cleaner because it’s unleaded and reduces a discharge of emissions than
The vehicles that have been converted to NGV can also use petrol or diesel as
fuel, so it’s easier for consumer to use this fuel. Usually consumers use any type of
fuel that can be obtained easily and priced reasonably. The idea that using natural gas
is dangerous is totally unproven as they are safer than petrol at ambient temperature.
Over 40 years worldwide experience with NGV has prove that the inherent safety
and integrity of compressed natural gas storage tanks and refueling system is save
fuel, natural gas has been recognized as an alternative fuel for transport instead petrol
and diesel. Referred to Kyoto Protocol, this is one of the progressive programs in
order to decrease the emissions of greenhouse gas about 5% over the amount in 1999
periodic for the year 2008 to 2012. The transportation is the sector that produces the
highest greenhouse gas emission in Malaysia. Therefore, that’s one of the main
factors why the government encouraging this sector to use natural gas as an
alternative fuel. The other reason is Malaysia has large amount of natural gas reserve
than oil.
Research in Australia shows that vehicles which use compressed natural gas
(CNG) could reduce about 1152 kg greenhouse gas for 12,000 km traveled (AGO,
2001). However the actual results depend on the size and transport fuel consumption,
identify suitable policies to public and private vehicle everyone in Malaysia to use
natural gas as fuel. A similar study has been done in other country such as in USA
In Malaysia, natural gas has been used as an alternative fuel for commercial
vehicles especially for taxis. Petronas had introduced the NGV Commercial
Program (NGVP) in 1991 to encourage the usage of natural gas with the target to
convert about 1100 petrol vehicles by the year 1993. However, today there are about
10 000 NGVs many of them taxi and about 40 gas refuelling stations in Malaysia
This section discusses about the collected data in this study. The collected data
include current policies, world natural gas reserves, number of vehicles in Malaysia
and other related data will be discussed extensively in this section. First part of this
section is started with a review about the current situation and policies that involve
both natural gas and NGV. Meanwhile the second part discusses about the natural gas
reserves. World reserve and the importance of natural gas in Malaysia are also
elaborated in this section. Furthermore, NGV in Malaysia and other countries will
also be presented.
alternative fuel for public transportation in Klang Valley where natural gas refueling
stations are easier to find compared to other states. Natural gas is not only cheaper,
but it also reduces air pollution in city like Kuala Lumpur, Johor Bahru and Penang.
i. 5
ii. 2
Until October 2004, there were more than 11,500 vehicles mostly taxis already
converted to NGVs. This data include 1000 mono gas taxis that have been introduced
in Klang Valley area and 40 natural gas refuelling station for all these vehicles
(Petronas NGV, 2004)1. However, this is still below the expected target from the
government policy which is 50% of taxis in Klang Valley use natural gas as fuel in
2004.
Before the policies are implemented for natural gas, the most important thing
to know is the reserve of natural gas in Malaysia as well as throughout the world.
World natural gas demand continues to grow and increase its market share inline
1
Data until October 2004 obtained from Petronas NGV Sdn. Bhd.
with the total world primary energy consumption. According to the International
Energy Outlook (2000), natural gas remains the fastest growing fuel component of
world energy consumption. From the forecast period from 1997 to 2020, natural gas
usage is projected to be more than double which will reach 167 trillion cubic feet
Over the 1997 to 2020 period, the natural gas usage increase tremendously
around the world except in Middle East and Africa. Developing countries especially
in Asia and South and Central America will set the highest growth of natural gas
The world natural gas reserves were estimated at 5,504 Tcf. The former Soviet
Union has only about 6% of world oil reserves but they have about 40% of world
natural gas reserves. This is mostly (about 30.5%) located in the Russian Federation
(Energy Information Administration, 2004). This makes Russia as the largest reserve
of natural gas in the world, more than double of the second largest reserve, Iran.
Geographically, natural gas reserves are more than oil reserves. In the Middle East,
Qatar, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and UAE also have a very large reserve of natural gas.
Reserve to production ratio is exceeding 100 years in Middle East and Africa, and
83.4 years in the former Soviet Union. Meanwhile, South and Central America have
another 71.5 years but in North America and Europe the ratio are relative low, at 11.4
years and 18.3 years respectively. The reserve to production ratios average for natural
gas for the world is 63.4 years compared with only 41 years for oil. Table 5.1 shows
Table 5.1. World natural gas reserves by country as January 1, 2003 (EIA2004)
Malaysia has 72 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of natural gas reserves. Natural gas
production has been rising steadily in recent years, reaching 1.9 Tcf in 2001, up
sharply from 1.5 Tcf in 2000. Natural gas consumption in 2001 was estimated at 1.1
Tcf, with LNG exports of around 0.8 Tcf (mostly to Japan, South Korea, and
Taiwan)2.
One of the most active locations in Malaysia for gas exploration and
lower part of the Gulf of Thailand and governed by the Malaysia-Thailand Joint
Authority (MTJA). The MTJA was established by the two governments for joint
developed in the location, while the Petroleum Authority of Thailand (PTT) and
Petronas also share equal interests in the remaining locations. PTT and Petronas
gas pipeline from the JDA to a processing plant in Songkla, Thailand, and a pipeline
linking the Thai and Malaysian gas grids as well. Malaysia and Thailand will
eventually take half of the gas produced. The rest of initial production will remain to
Malaysia.
The project had been controversial in Thailand because they are opposed by
local residents in Songkla along the pipeline route. In May 2002, the Thai
2
Data on September 2003
later in 2002, through the pipeline route was altered slightly to avoid some populated
areas. Construction has begun, and the delivery of natural gas to Malaysia is
Exxon Mobil announced in March 2002 that they would move forward with the
development of the offshore Bintang natural gas field in the South China Sea. The
field contains about 1 Tcf of reserves, and it is expected to reach peak output of 335
Mmcf/d. The commercial production at Bintang gas field began in February 2003.
2002. After long delay, Malaysia preceded a long-planned expansion of Bintulu LNG
headed by Kellogg Brown and Root for construction of the MLNG Tiga facility. This
consist two LNG liquefaction trains and a total capacity of 7.6 million metric tons
(370 Bcf) per year, which was completed in April 2003. The Bintulu facility is
among the largest LNG liquefaction in the world, with the total capacity of 23
Most of the production from the new LNG trains will be sold contracts to
Japan. Tokyo Electric Power (TEPCO), Tokyo Gas, and Chubu Electric have signed
contracts for LNG from the project. A fire at the MLNG Tiga plant in August 2003,
has forced a temporary shutdown for reparation and the facility back to normal
In addition, Malaysia exports 150 million cubic feet of LNG per day (Mmcf/d)
Indonesia. Petronas signed an agreement in April 2001 with Indonesian oil and gas
company Pertamina for the import of gas from Conoco's West Natuna offshore field
in Indonesian waters.
The move is being seen as part of Malaysia’s strategy to become a hub for
natural gas integration in Southeast Asia. Natural gas delivery from the pipeline
primary focus is to convert commercial vehicles, particularly the petrol taxi to NGV
taxi. Today there are about 35 NGV refueling station and more than 8,300 vehicles
running on natural gas3 (email). In addition, approximately 1,000 mono gas vehicles
have been introduced in Malaysia from joint venture between Petronas and Marta
NGV usage throughout the world has increased rapidly in recent years. This
Natural gas is relatively cheap (compared to other fossil fuel like petrol and
diesel).
3
Data until January 2004 (International Association for NGV)
Today about 0.18% of world transport uses natural gas as fuel. There are
approximately 3.5 million NGV (IANGV, 2004) throughout the world out of 650
Countries like USA, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Argentina, Sweden and
Italy have a long established record on the usage of natural gas as an alternative fuel
for vehicle. In these countries, natural gas vehicles are increasing rapidly. In other
countries although there are move towards this scenario but the development is not
so impressive. The reasons are because the NGV markets in these countries are
mainly based on economic consideration. Besides that, the high investment cost for
converting to NGV is also a problem. Another problem is the huge management cost
involved in setting up the infrastructure such as natural gas refuelling station and
pipeline.
Argentina and USA for a long time. Argentina, who is the frontrunner of NGV, has
1,243,024 of NGV and records an average of 3000 vehicles per month converted to
NGV. Moreover they have setup about 1,105 natural gas refuelling stations4.
Meanwhile, Italy has been using NGV since 1930’s and to date they have about
400,800 NGV on the road with 463 natural gas refuelling station5. Venezuela also
currently introduced National Program for NGV and constructed 140 natural gas
4
Data on March 2004.
5
Data on July 2003.
government also introduced many incentives such as the incentive for installing
conversion kit to encourage Canadians to use NGV. Meanwhile USA has about
130,000 natural gas vehicles where natural gas has been used as a fuel for transport
since 1960’s.
The development and the use of NGV in Asia are still lower compared to
European Union, South and North America. Asian countries like India, China, Japan,
Indonesia and Pakistan have recently started using natural gas as a fuel for
transportation. For example India already has 159,159 vehicles using natural gas
followed by China, where more than 69,300 vehicles use this fuel. While Pakistan
has about 540,000 vehicles, Japan has more than 18,463 vehicles and Indonesia
In Malaysia, the consumption of natural gas has also been increasing rapidly in
the recent years; the major consumer is oil and gas industry. Small amount of natural
gas are also used in transportation sector, following the launch of government
pilot program to promote natural gas involving 21 converted vehicles and one natural
gas refuelling station in 1986. Table 5.2 show top countries with number of NGV and
Egypt 52,000 79
vehicles has increased tremendously. With the increase of oil price, (petrol and
diesel) and the decreasing oil reserve in this country, NGV seems to be a better
alternative for Malaysia. As the biggest national car manufacturer, Proton and
Perodua could play an important role to manufacture vehicles and conversion kit for
NGV in the future. The increasing number of vehicles in Malaysia from 1987 till
Type of Vehicle
The current number of vehicles data have not been published yet by the
Department of Road and Transport (JPJ) and Department of Statistic. Table 5.3
shows that the total number of vehicles till 2002 in Malaysia are 12,021,939. The
Other 2,87%
Taxi 0,48%
Motorcycle
Car 41,60% 48,60%
Figure 5.1 shows that 41.60% of vehicles are car and 48.60% are motorcycle
that contributed to a larger number of vehicles in Malaysia. Bus and taxi only
represents 0.43 % and 0.48 % each respectively, while hire and drive, cargo, other
Figure 5.2 below shows the rate of increased number of vehicles in this country
12021939
11302545
14000000
10598804
9929951
12000000
9141357
8550469
Number of vehicle
7686684
10000000
6897434
6253334
5656040
5259834
8000000
4942038
4547414
4155196
3865709
3674484
6000000
4000000
2000000
0
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Year
The increasing number of vehicles (bus and taxi) that is involved in the study is
70000
Number of Public Transport
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
Bus
10000 Taxi
0
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
Year
Figure 5.3. Number of Public Transport (Bus and Taxi) from the year 1987 to
2002.
The price of natural gas at pump station had been steady since 1992 at RM
0.565 per liter, while as 2002, petrol and diesel cost are RM 1.30 and RM 0.701 per
liter each respectively. Therefore, there is more advantage for consumers to use NGV
especially in long term. However due to the increase in world fuel price, the price of
fossil fuel increased again this year. The new price for a liter of petrol, diesel and
Fuel Price6
Petrol RM 1.42
Diesel RM 0.831
Natural Gas RM 0.585
5.3. Methodology
regarding this topic. The reference used for data collection are books, journals,
installed the spare part for NGV. The secondary data are mostly collected from
Transportation and other government agencies that are related to this study.
Site visits have also been done to identify the actual situation on the site and to
obtain some technical data. This is necessary to obtain more information and
suggestions regarding the usage of natural gas directly from the mechanic and user.
6
Prices on October 2004.
Respondents have been picked randomly to gather their suggestion. Generally, there
are two types of data collected namely primary data and secondary data that will be
Two methods are used to get the primary data i.e. by interviews and
questionnaires. Interviews are conducted to collect qualitative data from users and
suppliers who are involved directly or indirectly with natural gas vehicles.
Questionnaires are used to collect the responds especially from those who are already
using natural gas vehicles regarding their opinion about natural gas and NGV. There
are also other methods used to collect the data, which is discussed below.
Literature Review
Literature review is an important step to start the study. In this stage, a lot of
information are collected especially from the internet, journals and reference books
about scenario of natural gas vehicles in others country that have already introduced
this policy. References from journals provide information about the current
development of natural gas around the world. All the information are necessary
especially to compare the current scenarios and achievements from the usage of
Interviews
Interviews are conducted on respondents that have experience with natural gas
vehicles to obtain their views and opinions about natural gas as an alternative fuel.
The actual information and other related data can only be collected from these
interviews. For example the problems related to natural gas vehicles either from the
user or from supplier of natural gas could only be easily collected from interview. It
is important to forecast all the data the estimate the situation and problems that will
be faced by the user and supplier as well as the policy in the future.
Site Visit
Throughout the whole process of data collection, site visits have played a
major role in order to get a clear view regarding the related problems of NGV
policies in this country. The information obtained from site visits are used as the
Questionnaire
identify the problems faced by the NGV users, determine the prospect of potential
Public Transports
Public Transports
For obtaining the necessary information from companies and owners of pump
stations, conducting interviews seems to be a better way because there are only a
small number of them. For taxi drivers, all their comments and suggestions are
collected from questionnaires. Therefore two sets of questionnaires and four sets of
interview questions that have been prepared for this study. Some explanation about
Questionnaire for taxi drivers have been divided into two sections. First section is for
natural gas vehicle users and the other section for non natural gas vehicle users. It is
necessary to have the opinion and comments from both sides because they will
Different from the questionnaire for taxi drivers, this part focuses on the problems
faced for using NGV. Hopefully the public transportation companies (taxi or bus
company) can give their opinion or input in order to find the solution for the
The interview form is also divided into two divisions; first part is the questions for
the companies or owners of pump station that sell natural gas. Another set of
question is set up for the owners of conventional pump station. The questions allow
us to collect a qualitative data on the problems faced at supply and demand as well as
collect some information about the current situation and condition related to natural
gas policy in the country. These data are necessary for this study because:
The methods to collect the secondary data and defining the entire process
In identifying all related policies regarding natural gas vehicles and natural gas
storage, information from individuals and related government bodies are useful as
references. Beside that, to ensure all the information obtained are correct, these
information are compared with the data collected from Department of Road and
Transport, Department of Statistics and other private agencies like Petronas NGV etc.
Information from Petronas NGV and Gas Malaysia are obtained in order to
identify all related agencies and individuals involved in natural gas vehicle programs
and natural gas storage. Other related information is referred to individuals that are
considered expert in this field and other agencies that are willing to contribute to this
study.
In order to get some information about similar policies in other countries and
the problems faced by these countries from natural gas usage and natural gas vehicle
programs, references such as books, journals and magazines are referred. There are
also some secondary data collected from the homepage of agencies that have already
To identify the number of vehicles in this country, relevant data are collected
from the Department of Road and Transport and from the annual report published by
Department of Statistics. These data are used to estimate the total number of
registered vehicles that may be converted to natural gas vehicle in the future. These
data are also used to predict the total number of vehicles in Malaysia in the future.
impact from the usage of natural gas. There are number of factors that will influence
the economic analysis for this study. The factors are types of engine used (petrol or
diesel), size of vehicles (light, medium or heavy duty) and annual traveled distance.
To analyze the economic benefit from using natural gas as an alternative fuel in
Malaysia, the life cycle cost formulae have been adapted for this study. The
economic analysis for NGV will justify the possibility of using natural gas as an
alternative fuel in this country. The cost-benefit analysis conducted in this study is
equation.
This section will discuss the results on NGV based on references and the data
collected. This data will be used to predict natural gas and NGV usage in the future.
Then, the study analyses the economic aspect and the differences between
Forecast for the future can be predicted by referring to the increasing rate of
vehicles in the recent year. The total number of public transport that is expected to
As discussed earlier, public transportation involved in this study are only buses
and taxis. For taxis, the questionnaires are divided into two section; first section for
NGV users and the other is for non – NGV users. For buses, the managers or owners
of the bus companies are interviewed to obtain qualitative data because commercial
There are two types of NGV in this country, firstly mono – gas and second is
bi-fuel vehicle. Table 5.6 below summarizes the results obtained from questionnaire
Table 5.5. Prediction of Total Public Transport (bus and taxi) from
About 216 respondents (non NGV taxi driver) have been interviewed for this
Bus Companies
Unlike managers of taxi companies, managers of bus companies did not give
much cooperation for this study. This is maybe because they are not involved directly
as a natural gas user. Only three companies gave their cooperation in the study. The
companies are Transnasional Ekspress Sdn. Bhd. (Respondent 1), Airport Coach Sdn.
Bhd. (Respondent 2) and Triton Sdn. Bhd. (Respondent 3). All these companies are
agree with the policies introduced by government for public transport. Results from
Seven managers of Petronas natural gas refuelling station and six non natural
gas pump station managers have been interviewed in order to get the necessary
Out of seven surveys, from which two are from Johor Bahru Petronas
refuelling stations, it is found that they have been providing natural gas service from
two to four years. This was accomplished from Petronas’s initiative to prepare this
fuel. On average these stations sell about 12,000 to 80,000 litres per month.
Sometimes the number totals to 270,000 litres per month. However in terms of
economical revenues, these are not a very stimulating amount. Although more taxi
drivers use natural gas, which translates to less taxi drivers who buy petrol, thus
dropping the sales, however less profit is coming from natural gas retail if compared
to the retail of conservative fuels. The NGV station owners also question ‘Mother-
Daughter’ system which is used in NGV retailing. Problems arise when natural gas
arrives sometimes too late due to the long distance of the mother station. Moreover,
sometimes the pumps pressures are too weak which is caused by the compressors.
They suggested direct gas system as a solution to these problems. According to them,
this system will save time, journey costs and the gas pressure will be sufficient all the
time.
At the same time there are also benefits gained from NGV retailing, such as
owners need not to worry about maintenance and infrastructures. All these are taken
care by Petronas. However, there are stations that claimed safety for daughter
stations are less strict than mother stations. This was based on past occurrence from
few stations that had experienced leakages on nozzles and problems with
compressors. It is hoped that the government and Petronas would give more exposure
and training to operators and gas station owners before opening new NGV stations.
The training should stress on safety because the lack of it will cause problems and
disrupt station operation. In addition to that, the devices in use are fairly sensitive
and can easily be out of order if handled without proper training. In order to wait for
government’s policy to help both the station and consumers. However they believe
that the government should reconsider the costly NGV vehicle conversion when
drafting the policy. The government should also promote more about the benefits of
NGV usage to the public. The national automobile industry should also take the
Six interviews had been conducted on owners of gas stations who did not have
NGV service in their premises. There was a lot of information obtained that supports
this study. All of the interviewed respondents said that they were interested in selling
this fuel. However, a few problems made them suspend their decisions. Among them
are lack of infrastructure and the delay waiting for Petronas’s instructions. This is
because the building of an NGV pump station is fully funded by the company. Some
of the respondents had already applied and are waiting for the construction process.
Another owner was waiting for the final word from Petronas Dagangan Berhad
Another problem that prevented them from not getting involved in the NGV
distributions is the lack of information from the government and Petronas concerning
the profits and losses in fuel preparation. Other problems that should be the concern
are the lack of NGV consumers in Malaysia. It seemed that almost all the NGV
consumers are exclusively. They hope for more efforts from the government to
introduce more consumer-friendly policies that will increase the fuel usage in
general. When number of consumers reaches the peak point, there will be no more
doubt for station owners to start serving the needs of NGV-modified cars.
Economically their profits will rise according to the increase of products they have to
In a nutshell, it can be summarised that the station owners are highly interested
to be involved in distributing NGV, provided that the problems discussed above can
To conduct economic analysis the first thing that must be known is fuel
consumption costs, maintenance costs, engine type and fuel type (petrol or diesel).
maintenance requirement before and after converting to NGV. Tables 5.9, 5.10 and
5.11 show the information that have been gathered from various source based on the
annual fuel consumption and annual maintenance cost for commercial Proton taxis7.
However this information will be changing with respect to location and time.
Table 5.9. Estimated annual consumption between petrol and natural gas8
Table 5.10. Estimated annual consumption between diesel and natural gas
Table 5.11. Estimated annual maintenance cost (RM) for different fuels
By using equation (5.1) the estimated annual saving per year based upon the data
For conversion of petrol to NGV (bi – fuel), the estimated annual saving is:
S = RM 2023
For conversion of diesel to NGV (dual – fuel), the estimated annual saving is:
S = RM 973
natural gas as an alternative fuel. The result clearly indicated that there is a
significant annual savings and if this program is implemented at national scale for
both types of petrol or diesel engine. Comparison of total running cost for different
From Table 5.12, the annual expenditure from using natural gas as fuel is
to diesel. Further savings can be achieved if the usage of natural gas could prolong
the life span of the engine due to the clean combustion process in the engine.
5.5.1. Conclusions
There are two parts of this section. In the first part, summary of the research
will be discussed. This covers the conclusions gained from the study conducted.
These suggestions are presented according to results of the study to promote the
usage of NGV in this country. Some of the suggestions and conclusions are based on
following:
This survey involved selected taxi drivers, both NGV users and non-users, gas
station owners, and both taxi and public bus companies owners as respondents.
This study discusses the respondent’s views about NGV. Interviews with
Many conclusions can be drawn from this research, however only the most
important aspect will be taken into consideration and discussed in detail in this
A survey for taxi drivers, conducted on 452 respondents, shows that the usage of
NGV was very helpful, because of the fact that NGV is relatively cheap. It is
more economical than petrol or diesel and produces less environmental impact.
The government’s policy to introduce NGV in Malaysia has not been very
successful so far, which was to control the price of NGV to remain 50% cheaper
than petrol. Other policies include road tax exemptions. Such policies will
stimulate more users and periodically more gas stations to provide to NG.
The problems for the taxi drivers who use NGV are the lack of NGV refuelling
stations. The drivers have to queue up, sometimes over an hour in order to refill
in the certain places. The distance between two gas stations that provide NGV
pumps is also quite far, where 84% respondents who claimed that the lack of
NGV users agree with government policy to control the fuel price, but they are
happy that the government will continue promoting the benefits and the safety
A survey on taxi drivers that did not use NGV was conducted on 216
respondents. Two main problems that caused them not to change to NGV are the
fact that the price of conversion kit (31%) which is required to modify their cars
is quite expensive and the lack of gas stations (61%) that provide NGV pumps is
another problem.
Air pollution has become a global problem today and Malaysia, as one of Asia’s
reduce and ultimately solve this dilemma. In addition, natural gas as fuel for the
transportation sector in the future will help the country’s economy by using our
very own fuel, since Malaysia ranks twelfth for natural gas reserves.
Calculations show that a huge savings can be gained by NGV users, which is
51.75% and 40.67% for switching from diesel and petrol by taxi drivers. This
5.5.2 Suggestions
Only the important suggestions that have higher possibility than others will be
To increase NGV usage in Malaysia, the advantages of using this fuel should be
further promoted in prime mass media. Campaigns and seminars are also
government to NGV users will also encourage more users and suppliers. For
example, tax cuts for both users and gas station owners and other benefits. This
should also be applied to oil companies who market natural gas as their main
product.
The cost for converting a car to NGV is approximately RM 2800. Although this
is considered reasonable, there are not many users converting to NGV because
the lack of NGV refuelling station around the country. Therefore the number of
NGV refuelling station must be increased to adapt with future demands. Failure
conduct studies in new areas, such as natural gas usage for motorcycles.
Both the government and the private sectors should increase their investments in
NGV benefits.
Public Transport
This part is an action plan for every category of public transports, such as taxi
drivers who use natural gas, non-users, taxi and bus companies.
The government expectantly will provide more facilities or a more effective policy in
order to attract more people to use natural gas as the main fuel in the future.
Infrastructure such as refuelling stations that provide NGV should be built more
especially in the urban and the surrounding areas. These parts are known as the focus
The price to modify a conventional car to NGV should be reduced. This policy will
surely do well to the public and taxi drivers who have not converted their cars yet.
Government through related bodies can organise workshops and trainings for
technicians and mechanics so they can understand how an NGV engine works and
how to repair it. This will also enable them to open workshops for fixing NGV.
Another important aspect is to cut the price tag of conversion kit and to have
sufficient stocks of the kits. It can be done by attracting several national and
multinational companies to work together with local companies to produce this kit.
Argentina did it in the 90s; they invited 20 multinational companies to produce and
Set up a target plan that predicts the number of cars to be converted and the number
of related infrastructures has to be added for the convenience of the growing natural
gas users.
For NGV cars, the obvious problem is the tank size. It takes up the boot space, and
also increases the weight of the car. This surely creates problems for certain vehicles
that have a weight limit such as buses, lorries or vans. These tanks can be installed
underneath the vehicle. This will also allow the tank’s capacity to be increased.
for companies who want to buy NGV buses and provide loan rates up to 50%.
Another option to promote natural gas usage is to raise the price margin between
conventional fuel and natural gas. This can be done in two ways: either to
withdraw the subsidy for diesel or to offer subsidy for the natural gas in such a
way that the difference will become apparent. This is caused by the fact that
natural gas and diesel are tagged at almost the same price, and for major
companies that have their own depot, diesel might be cheaper than natural gas.
Exemptions or reductions of any sort of taxes for buses might motivate bus
companies to buy NGV buses. This will also cause prices of NGV buses to drop
As the supplier, oil companies are the final stop before natural gas becomes
available to the public. Thus, it is important to convince them regarding the profits
available from natural gas distribution. That is why an action plan for suppliers
The most important issue that leads the list is the need for more NGV pumps in
every gas station. This issue is most prevalent especially in the urban areas
where NGV stations are inadequate and is situated far causing difficulty for
NGV users to refill conveniently. Long queues seen in the NGV pumps create an
impression that natural gas is an uncommon fuel and difficult to find. It is hoped
that Gas Malaysia Sdn. Bhd will develop a network of pipes that will meet
demands and Petronas as the nation’s oil company can provide NGV services in
By hook or by crook, the government has to force all the oil companies in
It is vital to focus on the refuelling station system at first. Soft loan and
stations are more expensive than the conventional ones in terms of construction,
it is developed for consumer use, the cost will be more expensive because
consumers require a technology that is quick and easy to use. Initiatives from
the natural gas suppliers are needed to manage the logistic networking of natural
gas. Financial assistants may be needed by Petronas to solve this problem due to
through tax results, interests from motor and car industries and supplier’s
that NGV price will be more competitive and will draw the interest of new
users.
Throughout this research, the lack of refilling infrastructure (NGV pumps) has
been recognised as the critical issue. If this is not solved soon, it will become the
major obstacle to attract more users in the future. This will also affect the long
term policy to encourage the use of natural gas as fuel in Malaysia. This classic
problem is often referred as ‘Chicken and Egg Syndrome’ and must be rectified
possible. Consumers will not use NGV if there are insufficient natural gas
stations. This suggestion has been considered alongside the fact that building
natural gas pumps stations is very expensive (1.5 million for daughter and 5
million for mother). Lack of these stations will retard the growth of NGV and
natural gas users. If the problem can be solved, it will bring the desired results
References
USA.
CHAPTER 6
STUDY ON VEHICLE EFFICIENCY
STANDARDS
SUMMARY
used, and this is projected to be higher in the future due to increasing income per
capita. This study focuses on the potential implementation of fuel economy standards
for motor vehicles in Malaysia. The fuel economy standard is developed based on the
fuel consumption data that is obtained from manufacturers and other related sources.
With the increasing number of vehicles, fuel economy standards are one of the highly
effective policies for decreasing energy use in the transportation sector. Fuel
economy standards are also capable of reducing air pollution and contribute towards
6.1. Introduction
contributor to air pollution in this country is road vehicles. As a result, the adoption
of fuel economy standards for vehicles is one of the options to reduce the emission.
The fuel economy standard could also play an important role in helping Malaysia to
meet overall greenhouse gas and emissions reduction target and at the same time
fuel bills and reduces up to tones of greenhouse gas emissions over its life-time.
However, the driving and riding habits and the type of vehicles driven will determine
the fuel consumption of the vehicle. In order to reduce fuel consumption of vehicles,
consumers should be educated to select the most fuel-efficient vehicle from the
market. This objective could only be achieved by setting a fuel economy standard.
6.1.1. Background
Regulations 1996
Regulations 1996
Regulations of 1996 Part II stated that petrol engine vehicles having a specified
capacity shall comply with the prescribed emission standards. In addition, emission
test for a petrol engine shall be conducted in accordance with the methods as
manufacturers are ignoring fuel economy as one of the main criteria during
production. If high efficiency vehicles are not required, it probably does not pay to
will have time to retool and invest in designing the vehicles that are more economic
and efficient. As a result, the manufacturers will develop more efficient vehicle,
which will benefit them as well as the consumers through the increase in demand and
of both fuel economy standards and labels, Malaysia will be able to promote more
efficient vehicle and will begin an important market transformation for efficient
vehicle in this country. The fuel economy standards and labels could also contribute
greenhouse gasses.
The data necessary for this study is the total number of vehicles in the
country year by year which is presented in Table 6.1(JPJ, 2004). Fuel consumption
data for vehicle is also necessary in order to calculate the fuel economy. These data is
presented in Table 6.2 (Australian Greenhouse Office, 2003) and 6.3 (Berjaya Motor,
2004).
Type of transport
6.3. Methodology
In order to evaluate the performance and improvement for the vehicles fuel
economy standard in the study, there are several methods that have been considered
and the most important approach is to include the fuel consumption effect,
engineering economy analysis and motorcycle emission (GHG). These methods have
Basic Calculation
growth has accelerated the use of vehicle tremendously. This can be shown through
the increase in the number of road vehicle ownership. In our study, to calculate the
average of each and every data that is collected, the arithmetic mean method is used.
If each of the data is assigned as yi and the quantity of the data is n, therefore,
1 n
ym = ∑ yi
n i =1
(6.1)
The driving habits, the type of vehicle and the conditions which it is driven
under determines the vehicle’s fuel consumption and fuel cost. The annual fuel cost
[ R × F × D]
AFC (RM) = (6.2)
100
Vehicle Growth
The polynomial method can be used to predict the total number and the
growth of vehicles in the future. The method is attempted to describe the relationship
between variable x as the function of available data and response y. It seeks to find a
smooth curve that the best fits the data, but does not necessarily pass through all data
form:
y = c 0 + c1 x + c 2 x 2 + ... + c k x k (6.3)
There are 2 types of units that represent the fuel consumption or the fuel
economy standards. Miles per gallon is the unit that is in use in the United States of
America. Most of the European countries use liter per 100 kilometer as the unit for
fuel consumption and FES indication. In order to convert from one unit to the other,
a
( L / km) = 100 4.5192 ( miles / gallon ) (6.4)
100 a 1.614
In order to conduct the engineering economic analysis, the data on types and
specification of vehicles are collected. Besides that, the fuel consumption data from
other countries are also collected for reference. In this study, the
economy analysis is a method used for estimating the potential vehicle fuel economy
cumulative impact on fuel economy and its cost. Substituting more efficient but more
expensive technology or technological innovation is not the only way to improve fuel
economy. Higher miles per gallon (mpg) could also be achieved by reducing vehicles
size and performance as well as by cutting back on accessories and luxury features.
However these strategies sometimes require trading off attributes that consumer’s
value. Attributes such as acceleration, can be translated into dollar values only with a
great uncertainty. Thus, if many attributes are significantly changed to increase mpg,
the proof of minimal adverse consequences is lost. For this reason, most studies
estimate the costs of increased fuel economy while attempting to hold all other
vehicle attributes at least approximately constant. The following seven steps are the
Once these steps are completed, it is possible to analyze the economic impact
life cycle cost and payback period analysis. As the standard is in place, the fuel
consumption levels are able to develop because the standard is a minimum value
target. The baseline level for the fuel consumption is selected based on the average
All vehicles are classified according to their classes. For this purpose, the
VFACTS Report. The classes are differentiated according to the engine displacement
and are adopted in the analysis. The broad classes are light, small, medium, large,
people movers, sports, and prestige and luxury vehicles. Only 4 main classes will be
These are:
(i) 2-stroke
(ii) 4-stroke
The baseline unit is selected to provide basic design features during the
analysis. For products without any additional design option for improvement, the
baseline models are the one that has fuel consumption value equal to the minimum or
the average of the existing models. Selecting the least efficient model as the baseline
model is recommended since this permits analysis of trial at all possible levels of
efficiency starting from the least efficient models. Therefore, the least efficient model
from the market of each class is selected as the baseline model for
engineering/economic analysis.
Design options are changes to the design of a baseline model that improve its
fuel consumption value. The potential design options are selected based on the
substitution of more efficient component to the baseline product. The data for the
countries.
models. For the entire vehicle, the fuel consumption improvement is calculated based
on the potential design options (component substitution) for improving the fuel
substitution for the baseline product in accordance to the input from manufacturers of
the baseline models. For combination design options, fuel economy standard (FES) is
The cost estimates for each design option is the cost of producing the vehicle
with the improved design options. The expected cost of manufacturing each design
are unavailable, the expected costs is estimated based on retail price, or from the
design options that already exists in the market place. If the data is still unavailable
from these sources, the necessary data will be collected from published reference
materials.
The cost efficiency curve is determined by calculating life cycle cost (LCC)
for the vehicle due to the fuel consumption or fuel economy standard improvement
based on each design option, and combination design options. The LCC is the sum of
investment cost and the annual operating cost discounted over the lifetime of the
N
OCt
LCC = PC + ∑ (6.5)
1 (1 − r ) t
If operating expenses are constant over time, the LCC is simplified to the
following equation:
To calculate the life cycle cost, the annual operating cost for the baseline unit
should be identified. The annual operating cost (OC) of vehicle is the sum of annual
fuel cost (A) and annual maintenance cost (C). It can be calculated as follows:
OC = A + C (6.7)
The annual fuel cost of a vehicle is given in Eq. (6.2), meanwhile the annual
maintenance cost is the total cost of the components being replaced and the labor
cost when the vehicle is being serviced. The components are lubricant, oil filter,
following equation:
N
1 1 1
PWF = ∑ = 1 − (6.8)
1 (1 + r ) t
r (1 + r ) N
The payback period (PAY) measures the amount of time that needed to
following equation:
PAY
∆PC + ∑ ∆OC t = 0 (6.9)
1
In general, PAY is found by interpolating the results between two years when
the above expression changes sign. If OC is constant, the equation has the solution as
given below:
∆PC
PAY = − (6.10)
∆OC
The PAY is the ratio of incremental cost (from the baseline to the more
efficient vehicle) to the decrease in annual operating expenses. If PAY is greater than
the lifetime of the vehicle, it means that the increment in purchase price is not
The baseline fuel consumption is usually based on the test data. To obtain the
baseline fuel consumption in the future, predictions are made using the annual fuel
BFC sv = BFCYsc
v
(
× 1 + AEI iv )( Ypd −Ysc )
(6.11)
The initial unit fuel savings is the difference between the annual unit fuel
consumption of a unit meeting the standard and the unit fuel consumption of the
average unit that would have been shipped in the absence of standard. Initial unit fuel
Shipment
minus the number of registered vehicle in the previous year. The shipment for
and baseline fuel consumption of vehicle while the standards are enacted. Thus, total
UFS sv
TEI sv = × 100% (6.14)
BFC sv
Scaling Factor
The scaling factor would linearly scale down the unit fuel savings of vehicle
and the incremental cost to zero over the effective lifetime of the fuel economy
AEI sv
( )
SFi v = 1 − Yshiv − Yseiv × (6.15)
TEI sv
The unit fuel savings were adjusted downward in the years after the standards
are implemented using the efficiency trend scaling factor. This factor accounts for the
natural progress in efficiency that is expected in the baseline case. The unit fuel
The shipment survival factor is a function of the annual retirement rate and
the retirement function. The shipment survival factor for motorcycles can be
( )
YtcTv − Yshiv − 2 / 3Lv
SSFi v = 1 − (6.17)
( 4 / 3 − 2 / 3) × L
v
Applicable stock
The applicable stock is the shipments in a particular year plus the number of
factor. The applicable stock can be calculated using the following equation:
( )
AS iv = Shiv × SSFi v + AS iv−1 (6.18)
Fuel savings
To determine the unit fuel savings in a particular year, the fuel savings for
vehicle associated with the standard is multiplied by the scaling factor and the
number of vehicles purchased in that year. The fuel savings can be calculated by the
following equation:
T
FS iv = ∑ AS iv × UES iv × SFi v (6.19)
i=s
The economic impact consists of potential bill savings, net savings and
cumulative present value. The economic impact is actually a function of fuel savings
and the investment for more efficient vehicle due to the fuel economy standards. The
Initial incremental cost per unit of motor vehicle is a function of unit fuel
savings and incremental cost which can be calculated using the following equation:
Capital recovery factor is the correlation between the real discount rate and
the lifespan of the motor vehicle. This correlation can be expressed by the following
mathematical equation :
d
CRF =
(1 − (1 + d ) )− Lr (6.21)
Bill savings
The bill savings is the fuel savings multiplied by the average fuel price and
BS iv = FS iv × PFi n (6.22)
Net savings
There are two ways to estimate economic impact; annualized costs and cash
flow. In the first method, the incremental cost is spread over the lifetime of the
vehicle so that the pattern of expenditures matches the flow of bill savings. This
method smoothes the net saving over time. The annualized net RM savings in a
particular year, which is the main economic indicator used in this analysis, is
T
ANS iv = FS iv × PFi n − ∑ AS iv × CRF × SFi v × IIC v (6.23)
i=s
The second method considers the cash flow over the lifetime of the
investment assuming that the vehicle is paid for in full when it is purchased.
Purchasers incur the incremental cost when the appliance is purchased, but benefits
of higher energy efficiency are spread over the lifetime of the vehicle. To calculate
the net savings in a certain year in terms of actual cash flows, the following equation
is used:
The cumulative present value can be calculated using the percentage of real
discount rate. The cumulative present value of annualized net savings can be
ANS iv
( )
T
PV ANS iv = ∑ (6.25)
i=s (1 + d ) ( i −Ydr )
6.4.1 Introduction
This chapter contains results on fuel economy standards for motor vehicles
examine potential fuel economy improvement of the least efficient model of motor
that is in use in several countries. Predicted economic and energy impact due to the
In order to calculate the annual fuel cost, the petrol cost is considered at
RM1.42 per liter. For a vehicle achieving 8 liter/100 km and traveling 15000 km per
8 liter
FC = × RM1.42 × 15000 km
100 km
= RM1704
Based on this simple calculation, the lifetime vehicle traveling cost can be estimated
consequently and the effect of even small differences in fuel consumption can be
predicted.
achieving 10 liter/100 km, the annual fuel cost will be RM1704 and RM2130 each
respectively. Over the lifetime of the vehicle which is 10 years, the estimated cost of
The total vehicles are predicted based on the data collected from Jabatan
Pengangkutan Jalan (JPJ) Malaysia and using Eq. (3.3). The results are presented in
• Car
• Motorcycle
• Lorry
• Bus
standards for vehicles in Malaysia. The first step for this analysis is the selection of
vehicles classes. The baseline unit selected for analysis is the average or the least
efficient models obtained from the market through data collection. The design
options for baseline units in each class are selected and the potential fuel economy
improvement is determined through this analysis. In order to analyze the life cycle
cost and payback period the incremental cost for each design option is identified.
types into separate classes. The classes are selected according to the engine
displacement whereby different fuel economy standards are applicable. The classes
Displacement
Light (Class I) 3 or 4 cylinder passenger cars, hatch above 1.5 liters
or sedan.
Small (Class II) 4 cylinder passenger cars, hatch, sedan 1.5-1.9 liters
or wagon.
Medium (Class III) 4 cylinder passenger cars, hatch, sedan over 1.9 liters
or wagon.
Large (Class IV) 6 or 8 cylinder cars, hatch, sedan or over 1.9 liters
wagon.
The design options are changes made to the design of the baseline model that
will improve fuel economy of the vehicle. Selection of design options are made
one. Some of the options are already adopted by existing vehicle and others are being
developed in Malaysia or in other countries such as Japan, United States, Europe and
other car manufacturers. The potential improvement for design options from each
class are determined based on input and suggestion from manufacturers and
references for the least efficient model. The lists of potential design options proposed
in this study for the least efficient model are tabulated in table 6.8, 6.9, 6.10, 6.11 and
6.12.
Table 6.8 Potential increase in fuel economy and related price increase for cars
No. Technology Potential fuel Potential average
efficiency retail price
improvement (%) increase (RM)
A Engine technologies production-
intent engine technologies
A.1 Engine friction and other 1- 5 133-532
mechanical/hydrodynamic loss
reduction
A.2 Application of advanced low 1 30-42
friction lubricants
A.3 Multi-valve, overhead camshaft 2-5 399-532
valve trains
A.4 Variable valve timing 2-3 133-532
A.5 Variable valve lift and timing 1-2 266-798
A.6 Cylinder deactivation 5-7 426-958
A.7 Engine accessory improvement 5-10 319-426
A.8 Engine downsizing and 2-6 1330-2128
supercharging
B Transmission technologies
production-intent transmission
technologies
B.1 Continuous variable transmission 4-8 532-1330
(CVT)
B.2 Five speed automatic 2-3 266-585
transmission
C Vehicle technologies production-
intent vehicle technologies
C.1 Aerodynamic drag reduction on 1-2 0-532
vehicle designs
C.2 Improved rolling resistance 1-1 12 53-213
C.3 Vehicle weight reduction (5%) 3-4 798-1330
Table 6.9 Potential increase in fuel economy and cost for motorcycles
(%) (RM)
A Fuel Injection
1. Direct – injection (2 stroke) 30 – 35 1005
2. Port – injection (4 stroke)
12 - 15 1005
B Petrol saver 5 - 10 201
C Motorcycle weight reduction (5%) 4 350
D Aerodynamic drag reduction on 1 250
motorcycle’s design
E Application of advanced low 1 20
friction lubricant
Table 6.10 Potential increase in fuel economy and related price increase for Medium
B ROLLING RESISTANCE
B1 Low rolling resistance tires 2.5 684
C TRANSMISSION
C1 Advance transmission with lock-up, 2.0 2750
electronic controls and reduced
friction.
D DIESEL ENGINE
D1 Turbocharged, direct injection 5.0 2660
engine with better thermal
management
E GASOLINE ENGINE
E1 Electronic fuel injection, DOHC
and multiple valves 5.0 2660
E2 Integrated starter/alternator with
idle off and limited regenerative 5.0 3800
braking
F VEHICLE MASS
F1 Mass reduction through high 5.0 4600
strength, lightweight material
Table 6.11 Potential increase in fuel economy and related price increase for Medium
B ROLLING RESISTANCE
B1 Low rolling resistance tires 2.5 1064
C TRANSMISSION
C1 Advance transmission with lock- 2.0 3420
up, electronic controls and reduced
friction.
D DIESEL ENGINE
D1 Turbocharged, direct injection 8.0 3800
engine with better thermal
management
D2 Integrated starter/alternator with 5.0 4560
idle off and limited regenerative
braking
E GASOLINE ENGINE
E1 Electronic fuel injection, DOHC 5.0 3800
and multiple valves
E2 Integrated starter/alternator with 8.0 4560
idle off and limited regenerative
braking
Table 6.12 Potential increase in fuel economy and related price increase for Heavy
B ROLLING RESISTANCE
B1 Low rolling resistance tires 3.0 2090
C TRANSMISSION
C1 Advance transmission with lock- 2.0 7600
up, electronic controls and
reduced friction.
D AUXILIARIES
D1 Electrical auxiliaries (air 1.5 1900
compressor, hydraulic pump,
radiator fan)
E DIESEL ENGINE
E1 Internal friction reduction 2.0 1900
through better lubricants and
improved bearings
E2 Increased peak cylinder pressure 4.0 3800
options for each class. This analysis takes into account the potential fuel
cost estimates for using these options were obtained from manufacturers and other
references. The incremental costs are the investment cost to produce vehicle with the
new design option. The results of design options improvement for baseline design
(no design change) for class I, II, III and IV motor vehicles are presented in Table
6.13, 6.14, 6.15 and 6.16. For the 2 stroke and 4 stroke motorcycles, the results are
presented in Table 6.25, 6.26 and 6.27. Table 6.31, 6.32, 6.33 and 6.34 shows the
The fuel consumption improvement for combined design options are started
from the baseline design. The design changes are then accumulated together with
fuel economy standard improvements. The incremental cost for design options are
calculated cumulatively and based on priority of the highest fuel economy standard
improvement and the lowest incremental cost. The calculation results of are tabulated
in Table 6.17 - Table 6.25. For the 2 stroke and 4 stroke motorcycles, the results are
presented in Table 6.28, 6.29 and 6.30. Meanwhile, Table 6.35, 6.36 and 6.38 shows
the results for the improvement of combination design option for lorries and busses.
Table 6.13 FES and incremental cost of design options for class I car
Table 6.14 FES and incremental cost of design options for class II
Table 6.15 FES and incremental cost of design options for class III
Table 6.16 FES and incremental cost of design options for class IV
Table 6.17 FES and incremental cost of combined design options for class I (CITY)
Table 6.18 FES and incremental cost of combined design options for class I
(HIGHWAY)
Table 6.19 FES and incremental cost of combined design options for class II (CITY)
No Design options FES Imp. Cum. FES Price (RM) Cum. Price
imp (%) imp.(%)
0 Least efficient design 9.30 0.0 70000 0.00
1 0+Applications of advanced , low 9.21 1.0 70042 0.06
friction lubricants
2 1+Improved rolling resistance 9.11 2.0 70095 0.14
3 2+Engine accessory improvement 8.66 6.9 70414 0.59
4 3+Engine friction and other loss 8.57 7.8 70547 0.78
reduction
5 4+Variable valve timing 8.32 10.6 71079 1.54
Table 6.20 FES and incremental cost of combined design options for class II
(HIGHWAY)
Table 6.21 FES and incremental cost of combined design options for class III (CITY)
Table 6.22 FES and incremental cost of combined design options for class III
(HIGHWAY)
Table 6.23 FES and incremental cost of combined design options for class IV (CITY)
Table 6.24 FES and incremental cost of combined design options for class IV
(HIGHWAY)
No Design options FES Imp. Cum. FES Price (RM) Cum. Price
imp (%) imp.(%)
2 STROKE MOTORCYCLE
Table 6.25 FES and incremental cost of design option for 2 stroke motorcycle
(METHOD I)
Table 6.26 FES and incremental cost of design options for 2 stroke motorcycle
(METHOD II)
4 STROKE MOTORCYCLE
Table 6.27 FES and incremental cost of design options for 4 stroke motorcycle
2 STROKE MOTORCYCLE
Table 6.28 FES and incremental cost of combined design option for 2 stroke
motorcycle (METHOD I)
Table 6.29 FES and incremental cost of combined design options for 2 stroke
Table 6.30 FES and incremental cost of combined design options for 4 stroke
motorcycle
LORRIES
Table 6.31 FES and incremental cost of combined design for Medium Duty lorry
(class 2 and 3)
Baseline = 22 liter/100km
Table 6.32 FES and incremental cost of combined design for Medium Duty lorry
(class 4 - 6)
Table 6.33 FES and incremental cost of combined design for Heavy Duty lorry (class
7 & 8)
Bus
Table 6.34 FES and incremental cost of combined design for busses
Table 6.35 FES and incremental cost of combined design options for
Table 6.36 FES and incremental cost of combined design options for
Table 6.37 FES and incremental cost of combined design options for
Table 6.38 FES and incremental cost of combined design options for Bus
The life cycle cost and payback period are calculated using equations 6.5 to
6.11 and input data discussed in the previous section. At the same time, some input
values such as discount rate, fuel price, vehicle lifespan, average mileage, baseline
data and least efficient model for each class are required. The input data are tabulated
in Table 6.39 and Table 6.40 for motor vehicles. Table 6.41 displays input data for
Table 6.39 The input value of baseline models for each class of car
(City Driving).
Table 6.40 The input value of baseline models for each class of car
(Highway Driving).
Table 6.41 The input value of baseline models for each class of motorcycles
Table 6.42 The input value of baseline models for each class of lorries and busses
The cumulative impact due to design changes on all type of vehicles for FES
and prices are presented in Figures 6.1, 6.3, 6.5, 6.7, 4.9, 6.11, 6.13, 6.15, 6.17, 6.19,
6.21, 6.23, 6.25, 6.27 and 6.29. Meanwhile, the cumulative payback period and life
cycle cost due to motor vehicle usage are shown in Table 6.44 - 6.58. It is also shown
in Figures 6.2, 6.4, 6.6, 6.8, 6.10, 6.12, 6.14, 6.16, 6.18, 6.20, 6.22, 6.24, 6.26, 6.28
and 6.30.
Table 6.43 Life-cycle cost and payback period calculation for Class I car (CITY)
44,500
advanced, low friction
Least efficient design
0+Applications of
44,000
Vehicle Prices(RM)
transmission
2+Improved rolling
43,500
1+Multi-valve, overhead
resistance
camshaft valve trains
43,000
42,500
42,000
7.6 7.52 7.15 7.04 6.83
FES (liter/100km)
Figure 6.1 Impact of design option changes on prices and FES for Class I (City)
LCC PAY
8.36
56,000 9.00
8.00
55,900
7.00
55,895
55,800 6.00
PAY (Yrs)
LCC (RM)
6.60
5.00
5.96
55,700 55,676 4.00
55,604 55,626
55,600 3.00
55,574
0.00 2.00
55,500
2.59
1.00
55,400 0.00
7.60 7.52 7.15 7.04 6.83
FES (liter/100km)
Figure 6.2 Payback period and life cycle cost for Class I (City)
Table 6.44 Life-cycle cost and payback period calculation for Class I car (Highway)
44,500
0+Applications of
transmission
2+Improve rolling
43,500
1+Multi-valve, overhead
resistance
camshaft valve trains
43,000
42,500
42,000
5.80 5.74 5.45 5.37 5.21
FES (liter/100km)
Figure 6.3 Impact of design option changes on prices and FES for Class I (Highway)
LCC PAY
53,600 12.00
8.65
7.81
53,475
10.00
53,400
10.95
PAY (Yrs)
8.00
LCC (RM)
53,200
53,132 6.00
53,000 53,041
52,983 52,939 4.00
52,800
0.00
2.00
3.40
52,600 0.00
5.80 5.74 5.45 5.37 5.21
FES (liter/100km)
Figure 6.4 Payback period and life cycle cost for Class I (Highway)
Table 6.45 Life-cycle cost and payback period calculation for Class II car (City)
2+Engine accessory
71,200
0+Application of advanced,
improvement
71,000
70,800
Vehicle prices (RM)
70,600
3+Engine friction and other
70,400
reduction losses
70,200
70,000
69,800
69,600
69,400
9.30 9.21 9.11 8.66 8.57 8.32
FES (liter/100km)
Figure 6.5 Impact of design option changes on prices and FES for Class II (City)
LCC PAY
85,300 6.00
85,038
85,200
5.155.00
85,219
85,100
84,825
85,122
85,000 4.00
PAY (Yrs)
LCC (RM)
84,900 3.53
84,800 3.03 3.00
84,700 2.41
2.12 2.00
84,600
84,675
84,671
84,500 1.00
84,400
84,300 0.00 0.00
9.30 9.21 9.11 8.66 8.57 8.32
FES (liter/100km)
Figure 6.6 Payback period and life cycle cost for Class II (City)
Table 6.46 Life-cycle cost and payback period calculation for Class II car (Highway)
2+Engine accessory
advanced, low lubricants
71,200
improvement
0+Applications of
Least efficient design
71,000
1+Improved rolling
resistance
70,600
70,400
loss reduction
70,000
69,800
69,600
69,400
6.40 6.34 6.27 5.96 5.90 5.72
FES (liter/100km)
Figure 6.7 Impact of design option changes on prices and FES for Class II (Highway)
81,000 8.00
80,827
7.48
80,785
80,900 7.00
6.00
80,800
PAY (RM)
5.13
LCC (RM)
5.00
4.41
80,700 4.00
3.50
3.08 3.00
80,600
80,674
80,635
2.00
80,500 1.00
80,400 0.00 0.00
6.40 6.34 6.27 5.96 5.90 5.72
FES (liter/100km)
Figure 6.8 Payback period and life cycle cost for Class II (Highway)
Table 6.47 Life-cycle cost and payback period calculation for Class III car (City)
96,200
0+Applications of advanced,
low friction lubricants
96,000
Least efficient design
3+Continuously variable
95,800
transmission (CVT)
Vehicle price (RM)
95,600
95,400
2+Engine accessories
95,200
improvement
95,000
94,800
94,600
94,400
11.1 10.99 10.88 10.34 9.92
FES (liter/100km)
Figure 6.9 Impact of design option changes on prices and FES for Class III (City)
LCC PAY
112,912
112,788
112,677
113,000 4.00
3.77
112,800 3.50
112,600 3.00
PAY (RM)
LCC (RM)
2.54 2.50
112,400
2.02 2.00
112,200 1.78
1.50
112,000
112,182
1.00
112,096
111,800 0.50
111,600 0.00 0.00
11.10 10.99 10.88 10.34 9.92
FES (liter/100km)
Figure 6.10 Payback period and life cycle cost for Class III (City)
Table 6.48 Life-cycle cost and payback period calculation for Class III car
(Highway)
2+Engine accessory
96,200
improvement
advanced, low friction
Least efficient design
96,000
0+Applications of
1+Improved rolling
lubricants
Vehicle Prices (RM)
95,800
3+Continuously variable
resistance
transmission(CVT)
95,600
95,400
95,200
95,000
94,800
94,600
94,400
7.80 7.72 7.64 7.26 6.97
FES (liter/100km)
Figure 6.11 Impact of design option changes on prices and FES for Class III
(Highway)
LCC PAY
108,100 6.00
107,838
108,000 5.36
5.00
107,900
107,975
4.00
107,901
PAY (RM)
107,800
LCC (RM)
3.62
107,700 2.87 3.00
2.53
107,600
107,683
2.00
107,500
107,585
1.00
107,400
107,300 0.00 0.00
7.80 7.72 7.64 7.26 6.97
FES (liter/100km)
Figure 6.12 Payback period and life cycle cost for Class III (Highway)
Table 6.49 Life-cycle cost and payback period calculation for Class IV car (City)
112000
2+Engine accessory
low friction lubricants
improvement
Least efficient design
111500
1+Improved rolling
resistance
111000
3+Engine friction and other
110500
loss reduction
110000
109500
109000
13.3 13.17 13.04 12.38 11.76 11.41
FES (liter/100km)
Figure 6.13 Impact of design option changes on prices and FES for Class IV (City)
LCC PAY
3.67
130,903
131,500 4.00
3.50
131,000 2.89
131,203
3.00
131,047
130,500 2.12 2.50
129,856
129,843
1.69 2.00
1.48
130,246
130,000 1.50
1.00
129,500
0.50
0.00
129,000 0.00
13.30 13.17 13.04 12.38 11.76 11.41
FES (liter/100km)
Figure 6.14 Payback period and life cycle cost for Class IV (City)
Table 6.50 Life-cycle cost and payback period calculation for Class IV car
(Highway)
0+Applications of advanced,
112000
2+Engine accessory
low friction lubricants
improvement
Least efficient design
111500
1+Improved rolling
resistance
111000
loss reduction
110000
109500
109000
8.30 8.22 8.13 7.73 7.34 7.12
FES (liter/100km)
Figure 6.15 Impact of design option changes on prices and FES for Class IV
(Highway)
LCC PAY
123,800 7.00
123,571
123,700
5.896.00
123,723
123,600
123,641
5.00
123,500 4.63
PAY (Yrs)
LCC (RM)
123,400 4.00
123,438
3.40
123,300 3.00
2.70
123,200 2.38
123,282
2.00
123,229
123,100
123,000 1.00
Figure 6.16 Payback period and life cycle cost for Class IV (Highway)
Table 6.51 Life-cycle cost and payback period calculation for 2 stroke motorcycle
(method 1)
7800
Least efficient design
7600
0+Direct injected
Motorcycle prices(RM)
7400
7200
7000
6800
6600
6400
6200
6000
3.65 2.56
FES (liter/100km )
Figure 6.17 Impact of design option changes on price and FES for 2 stroke
motorcycle (method 1)
LCC
12916
PAY
4.31
13000 5
12283
12600
3
12400
2
12200
12000 1
0
11800 0
3.65 2.56
Fuel consumption(liter/100km)
Figure 6.18 Payback period and life cycle cost for 2 stroke motorcycle (method 1)
Table 6.52 Life-cycle cost and payback period calculation for 2 stroke motorcycle
(method 2)
7600
0+Application of advanced,
low friction lubricants
7400
1+Petrol saver
Least efficient design
3+Aerodynamic drag
reduction on designs
Motorcycle prices (RM)
7200
2+Motorcycles weight
7000
reduction
6800
6600
6400
6200
3.65 3.61 3.25 3.12 3.09
FES (liter/100km )
Figure 6.19 Impact of design option changes on prices and FES for 2 stroke
motorcycle (method 2)
LCC (RM)
PAY (years)
13000 8
6.89
5.08
6
12800
5
12700 12697
4
2.61
2.57
12600
12542 3
12500
2
12400 1
0
12300 0
3.65 3.61 3.25 3.12 3.09
Fuel consumption (liter/100km)
Figure 6.20 Payback period and life cycle cost for 2 stroke motorcycle (method 2)
Table 6.53 Life-cycle cost and payback period calculation for 4 stroke motorcycle
7000
6000
2+Port-injected
Motorcycle prices (RM)
0+Applications of
4000
lubricants
3000
2000
1000
0
2.92 2.89 2.6 2.29
FES (liter/100km)
Figure 6.21 Impact of design options changes on prices and FES for 4 stroke
motorcycle
LCC PAY
9.13
10800 10
10700 9
10600
10412
10500 7
6
10400
10435
5
3.26
3.22
10300
4
10200 3
10100
10181
2
10000 1
0
9900 0
2.92 2.89 2.60 2.29
Fuel consumption (liter/100km)
Figure 6.22 Payback period and life cycle cost for motorcycles 4 strokes
Table 6.54 Life-cycle cost and payback period calculation for Medium Duty Lorry
(class 2 & 3)
5+Advance transmission
drag through hood and cab
injection engine with better
150000
thermal management
2+Lower coefficient of
0+Low rolling resistance
configuration
Least efficient design
145000
controls
tires
regenarative braking
material
135000
125000
120000
20.59 20.08 19.07 18.59 17.66 16.78 16.45
FES (liter/100km)
Figure 6.23 Impact of design option changes on prices and FES for
194000 16.0
12.3
14.0
192000
193272
12.0
9.9
Payback periods
Life cycle cost
191391
190000
10.0
7.8
188000 8.0
189076
4.7
6.0
186000
186921
186460
4.0
185875
185812
184000
2.0
182000 0.0
0.0
Figure 6.24 Payback period and life cycle cost for medium duty lorry (class 2&3)
Table 6.55 Life-cycle cost and payback period calculation for Medium Duty Lorry
(class 4 - 6)
350000
352000
354000
356000
358000
360000
362000
265000
270000
275000
280000
285000
290000
295000
300000
305000
0 356998
Least efficient design
28.00
5.35 356251
0+Low rolling resistance
27.30
354400 5.94
1+Turbocharged, direct
354841 7.16 injection engine with better
LCC
25.12
thermal management
257
356282 8.62 2+Closing gap between
tractor and trailer
24.11
FES (liter/100km)
PAY
357650 9.52
ENERGY USE IN THE TRANSPORTATION SECTOR OF MALAYSIA
regenarative braking
358592 10.06 medium duty lorry (class 4-6)
FES (liter/100km)
10
12
edge curvatures
22.11
6+Advance transmission
with lock-up, electronic
21.67
Figure 6.26 Payback period and life cycle cost for medium duty lorry (class 4-6)
ENERGY USE IN THE TRANSPORTATION SECTOR OF MALAYSIA
Table 6.56 Life-cycle costs and payback period calculation for Heavy Duty Lorry
(class 7 & 8)
No Design options FES Imp. Price OC LCC PAY
(RM) (RM) (RM) (Year)
0 Least efficient design 42.42 492000 12797.3 608556.5 0.00
1 0+ Low rolling resistance 41.15 494090 12435.9 607354.8 5.78
tires
2 1+ Mass reduction 37.03 501690 11267.3 604311.4 6.33
through high-strength,
lightweight material
3 2+ Internal friction 36.29 503590 11056.9 604295.6 6.66
reduction through better
lubricant and improved
bearings
4 3+ Increased peak 34.84 507390 10644.7 604340.6 7.15
cylinder pressure
5 4+ Electrical auxiliaries 34.32 509290 10496.2 604888.8 7.51
520000
Least efficient design
515000
trailer,aerodynamic bumper
6+Closing of gap between
tires
510000
sloping hood, cab side
Lorry price (RM)
505000
4+Electrical auxiliaries
3+Increased peak cylinder
tractor and
2+Internal friction reduction
1+Mass reduction through
500000
flares
pressure
495000
material
490000
485000
480000
475000
42.42 41.15 37.03 36.29 34.84 34.32 33.63 32.79
FES (liter/100km)
Figure 6.27 Impact of design option changes on prices and FES for
609488.6
LCC PAY
608556.5
610000.0 10
9.45
607354.8
609000.0 9
8.07 8
608000.0
605963.4
7.51
7.15 7
607000.0 6.66
604888.8
6.33
6
604340.6
604311.4
604295.6
606000.0 5.78
5
605000.0
4
604000.0
3
603000.0 2
602000.0 1
601000.0 0 0
42.42 41.15 37.03 36.29 34.84 34.32 33.63 32.79
FES (liter/100km)
Figure 6.28 Payback period and life cycle cost for medium duty lorry (class 7-8)
Table 6.57 Life-cycle cost and payback period calculation for Busses
465000
470000
475000
480000
485000
490000
495000
500000
505000
510000
602000.0
604000.0
606000.0
608000.0
610000.0
612000.0
614000.0
616000.0
618000.0
615581.7 Least efficient design
40.58
40.58
0
4.84 613734.6 0+Low rolling resistance tires
39.36
39.36
35.43
35.43
material
261
34.72
through better lubricants and
LCC
34.72
improved bearings
ENERGY USE IN THE TRANSPORTATION SECTOR OF MALAYSIA
607522.0 5.98
3+Increased peak cylinder
33.33
FES (liter/100km)
pressure
33.33
PAY
FES (liter/100km)
607805.2 6.28
32.83
4+Electrical auxiliaries
32.83
608531.7 6.75
32.17
5+Cab top deflector, sloping
Figure 6.30 Payback period and life cycle cost for busses
hood, cab side flares
32.17
611630.5 7.90
31.37
6+Closing gap between
tractor and trailer,
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Figure 6.29 Impact of design option changes on prices and FES for busses
31.37
aerodynamic bumper
Payback periods (years)
ENERGY USE IN THE TRANSPORTATION SECTOR OF MALAYSIA
this country because lack of planning. The calculation for potential saving is
conducted only for class I car, 2 stroke and 4 stroke motorcycles with engine
displacement range between 80cc-150cc, medium duty lorry (class 2 & 3) and for
busses. It is because these types of vehicles are the most popular in Malaysia and is
potential fuel savings for motor vehicles and motorcycles in Malaysia are tabulated
in Tables 6.59, 6.61, 6.63 and 6.65. To derive the results, some of input data are
necessary. The input data are shown in Tables 6.58, 6.60, 6.62 and 6.64.
Description Values
Year standard enacted 2006
Discount rate 7%
Incremental cost RM1372
Life span 10 year
Baseline Fuel Consumption 1035 liter/year
Current average fuel price RM 1.42 per liter
Standards fuel consumption 780 liter/year
Annual efficiency improvement 3%
1200000000
1000000000
Fuel saving (liter)
800000000
600000000
400000000
200000000
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Year
BAU STD
30000000000
25000000000
20000000000
15000000000
10000000000
5000000000
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Figure 6.32 Fuel consumption with and without standards (STD vs BAU) for cars
Description Values
Year standard enacted 2006
Discount rate 7%
Incremental cost RM1024
Life span 10 year
Baseline Fuel Consumption 408 liter/year
Current average fuel price RM 1.42 per liter
Standards fuel consumption 330 liter/year
Annual efficiency improvement 3%
400000000
350000000
300000000
Fuel saving (liter)
250000000
200000000
150000000
100000000
50000000
0
2006 2007 2008 2009
Year
BAU STD
9000000000
8000000000
7000000000
6000000000
5000000000
4000000000
3000000000
2000000000
1000000000
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Figure 6.34 Fuel consumption with and without standards (STD vs BAU) for
motorcycles
Table 6.62 Input data for potential fuel saving of medium duty lorry
(class 2 & 3)
Description Values
Year standard enacted 2006
Discount rate 7%
Incremental cost RM17534
Life span 15 year
Baseline Fuel Consumption 3290 liter/year
Current average fuel price RM 1.42 per liter
Standards energy consumption 2600 liter/year
Annual efficiency improvement 3%
Table 6.63 The calculation of fuel savings for medium duty lorry (class2 & 3)
700000000
600000000
500000000
Fuel saving (liter)
400000000
300000000
200000000
100000000
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Year
Figure 6.35 Projected fuel savings for medium duty lorry (class 2 & 3)
BAU STD
14000000000
12000000000
10000000000
8000000000
6000000000
4000000000
2000000000
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Figure 6.36 Fuel consumption with and without standards (STD vs BAU) for
Description Values
Year standard enacted 2006
Discount rate 7%
Incremental cost RM25840
Life span 15 year
Baseline Fuel Consumption 8750 liter/year
Current average fuel price RM 1.42 per liter
Standards energy consumption 7500 liter/year
Annual efficiency improvement 3%
90000000
80000000
70000000
60000000
Fuel saving (liter)
50000000
40000000
30000000
20000000
10000000
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Year
Figure 6.38 Fuel consumption with and without standards (STD vs BAU) for busses
BAU STD
2500000000
2000000000
1500000000
1000000000
500000000
It has been noted that the fuel economy standards for vehicles are only
effective for a certain period because annual efficiency of the vehicles are still
improving 3% per year even without the standard. Figure 6.31, 6.33, 6.35, 6.37
shows that the annual savings for the fuel consumption increase sharply in the
improvement in the baseline begins to catch up with the standard. Referring to Table
6.59, 6.61, 6.63 and 6.65, the standard for cars is only effective for about 6 years
from 2006 to 2011, for motorcycles it is effective for 4 years from 2006 to 2009.
Meanwhile for lorry, the standard is effective for about 6 years from 2006 to 2009
and for busses it is effective for 5 years from 2006 to 2010. Table 6.59, 6.61, 6.63
and 6.65 also shows that minimum fuel economy standards or fuel consumption
program starting in 2006 will save approximately 359 GL (Giga-Liter) of fuel at the
end of 2011 for cars, 145 GL of fuel at the end of 2009 for motorcycles, 126 GL of
fuel at the end of 2011 for medium duty lorry (class 2 & 3) and 286 GL of fuel at the
6.69. This study has proved that the introduction of fuel economy standard for motor
vehicle offer great benefits in some aspect for consumers, governments as well as the
Table 6.66 The calculation result from the cost-benefit analysis for cars
Table 6.67 The calculation result from the cost-benefit analysis for motorcycle
Table 6.68 The calculation result from the cost-benefit analysis for medium duty
lorry
Table 6.69 The calculation result from the cost-benefit analysis for busses
6.5.1 Conclusion
Apart from reducing fuel consumption, the program also indirectly reduces
emissions. The present study has demonstrated that implementation of fuel economy
The result of the study has proven that the consumer, manufacturers,
approximately 115.5 liter for cars, 84 liter for 2 stroke motorcycle, 94.5 liter for
4 stroke motorcycle, 828 liter for medium duty lorry (class 2 & 3) and 2302.5
liter for busses. Although now the consumers have to pay a higher price for
purchasing vehicle, they will save from the lower annual fuel cost; which is
RM164.01 for cars, RM119.28 for 2 stroke motorcycle, RM134.19 for 4 stroke
motorcycle, RM1175.76 for medium duty lorry (class 2 & 3) and RM3269.55
for busses.
In brief, this study presents the importance to propose the fuel economy
sector.
6.5.2 Recommendation
from possible fuel economy standards implementation for vehicles in Malaysia. The
recommendations are:
the dealers who sell their vehicles in the Malaysian market. From these data,
fuel economy label should be developed that meets the fuel economy standards
in order to enable the consumers to select and purchase the best fuel efficient
vehicle.
PTM and also the manufacturers should be reinforced to increase the synergy in
order to produce a successful test procedure, fuel economy standards and label
program.
to implement the fuel economy standards. This includes the facility to predict
guidelines:
Driving Habits
There are infinite variations of possibilities that can affect driving style. Some factors
Types of road
Weather condition
Traffic flow
The type of roads and weather conditions are the two things beyond the control of the
driver. However, traffic flow can be improved and streamlined by proper road
management and improved driving skills. Meanwhile, fuel can also be saved by
• Throttling
Frequent acceleration and braking consumes up to 50% extra fuel required to reach a
tire wear and also reduces life of brake pads. Always accelerate gently and anticipate
• Idling
Switch off vehicles engine when not in use and avoid excessive throttling when
waiting at the traffic light. Do not leave vehicles unattended with engine idling, as
• Use of clutch
Using the clutch unnecessarily reduces a lot of useful power generated by engine and
results in wasted fuel. Always use the clutch smoothly and only when necessary.
Maintenance Schedule
By following the manufacturer's instructions on maintenance will not only reduce the
fuel bill but also increase the life of the engine. An energy conscious motorist can
save as much as 10% of fuel bill and help the nation to save valuable amount of fuel.
Tune Up
Regular tuning can save up to 10% fuel. Black smoke from exhaust is due to
competent mechanic.
Tyre Pressure
Under inflated tires not only reduce the tire life by as much as 25%, but due to
increased rolling resistance, it also increases the fuel consumption. Tests have shown
Spark Plugs
The spark plug is ensured to be properly inspected and cleaned. The following are
also checked:
- Fouling
- Carbon deposits
- Cracks Deformation
It is advisable that the spark plug is cleaned in a spark plug cleaner for these
following engines:
- 2 stroke motorcycle engine: spark plugs needs to be cleaned every 300km and
- 4 stroke motorcycle engine: spark plugs needs to be cleaned every 3,000 km and
Air Cleaner
Filter needs to be cleaned using compressed air every 1,000 km and replaced after
every 3,000 km
Battery
Proper maintenance of battery will ensure easy starts. To maintain the battery is in
top condition, battery electrolyte needs to be checked with a hydrometer and ensured
that the specific gravity of battery electrolyte is between 1.260 -1.280 (at
20°C/68°F). The battery is recharged if the hydrometer shows specific gravity less
than 1.220. Battery electrolyte level also needs to be checked. This should be
between the upper and lower limits indicated on the battery. If required, distilled
Exhaust System
The performance of a two stroke engine is dependent upon the condition of the
diffuser pipe in the exhaust muffler. Over a short period of time it gets choked due to
carbon deposits. The diffuser pipe requires monthly cleaning to remove the deposited
Engine Lubricants
8%.
Engine oil should be changed after the engine has properly warmed up.
Remember to reinstall the drain bolt before filling up the recommended oil up to
To check the engine oil level, support the motorcycle on the main stand with the
engine stopped. Wait for 2-3 minutes after shutting off the engine and then check
Engine lubricant when added in right proportion on two stroke engine reduces
engine wear and increases engine life. It also reduces formation of deposits in the
References
Energy and Environ. Anal., Inc. 1990. An assessement of Potential Passenger Car
Fuel Economy Objectives for 2010, Arlington.
Energy and Environ. Anal., Inc.1990. Analysis of The Fuel Economy Boundry for
2010 and Compirason to Prototypes. U.S
Ford A, Sutherland RJ. 1982. The Outlook for Improved Automobile Fuel Efficiency.
Los Alamos
Gray CL, von Hippel F. 1981. The Fuel Economy of Light Vehicles. Sci. Am.
Heavenrich RM and Hellman KH. 1999. Light Duty Automotive Technology and
Fuel Economy Trends Through 1999. EPA.
Hittman Assoc., Inc. 1976. Fuel Economy Cost Relationship for Future Automobiles.
Federal Energy Administration, Columbia
John M. DeCicco [1995]; Projected Fuel Savings and Emissions reductions from
light Vehicles Fuel Economy Standards
Mahlia, T.M.I., Masjuki, H.H. & Choudhury, I.A. [2002a]. Theory of energy
efficiency standards and labels, Energy Conversion and Management.
Mahlia, T.M.I., Masjuki, H.H. & Choudhury, I.A. [2002b]. Development of energy
labels for room air conditioner in Malaysia: methodology and results, Energy
Conversion and Management.
Mahlia, T.M.I., Masjuki, H.H. , Choudhury, I.A. & Amalina, M.A. [2003]. Cost-
Benefit Analysis of Implementing Minimum Energy Efficiency Standards for
Household Refrigerator-Freeezers in Malaysia.
Mahlia, T.M.I., Masjuki, H.H., Choudhury, I.A. & Norleha, A.R. [2002]. Projected
Electricity Savings from Implementing Minimum Energy Efficiency Standard for
Household Refrigerators in Malaysia
Mark Archer, Greg Bell. [2001]. Advanced Electronic Fuel Injection System – An
Emissions Solution for Both 2- and 4-stroke Small Vehicle Engines. Synerjet System
Integration, Balcatta, Australia.
Sam Leighton, Steven Ahern [2003]. Fuel Economy Advantages on Indian 2 Strokes
and 4 Strokes Motorcycles Fitted With Direct Fuel Injection. SAE Paper. Orbital
Engine Company, Australia.
APPENDIX A
18000000
16000000
14000000
12000000
10000000
Cars
8000000
6000000
4000000
2000000
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Year
18000000
16000000
14000000
12000000
Motorcycles
10000000
8000000
6000000
4000000
2000000
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Year
2,000,000
1,800,000
1,600,000
1,400,000
1,200,000
Lorries
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Year
120000
100000
80000
Busses
60000
40000
20000
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Year