Ammonia Report

Weekly review of the ammonia market

SmalllotsoldoutofBlackSeaat$570fob. Baltictonnessoldat$570fobforearlyJune. IraniancargosoldtoIndonesiaatpricebelievedtobe$530cfr. SmalllotsoldtoThailandatpricebelievedaround$630cfr.

17May2012

OUTLOOK
Firm for near-term.

KEYPRICES
17 May Yuzhnyy fob $/t Middle East fob Tampa/US Gulf cfr $/t 550-570 450-570 545-550 10 May 520-550 420-510 545-550 3 May 480-500 420-510 545-550

AMMONIAPRICES
700 600 500 400 300 200 fob Caribbean 100 0
J 09 J 10 J 11 J 12
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US$/t

fob M.East

fob Yuzhnyy

FERTECON 17/05/2012

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AMMONIAPRICEINDICATIONSAll prices in US$

17 May Fob prices Caribbean Middle East Of which: - Netbacks on contract/formula-priced sales - Spot fob Yuzhnyy/FSU fob * nominal Baltic/FSU fob * nominal Southeast Asia Delivered prices NW Europe (duty paid/duty free) *nominal NW Europe (duty unpaid) *nominal Far East India US Gulf/Tampa - Tampa - US Gulf (MS, LA, TX) * nominal 627-642 615-630 530-590 480-520 545-550 545 550 575-605 565-595 510-590 430-520 545-550 545 550 565-585 * 554-574 * 510-590 430-520 545-550 545 550 450-465 570 550-570 570 490-520 420-460 510 520-550 510-530 470-510 420-450 480-510 480-500 * 490-510 * 470-510 500-505 450-570 500-505 420-510 500-505 420-510 10 May 3 May

FREIGHTINDICATIONSUS$/ton (Rates basis 1-1 unless stated)

Route Caribbean Tampa/USG Baltic (Ventspils) Antwerp/Belgium Baltic (Ventspils) NW Europe (France) Black SeaNW Europe (excl Scandinavia) Black Sea Antwerp/Belgium Black Sea US (1-1 Tampa) Black Sea US (2-3 USG) Black Sea US (1-1 Tampa) Black Sea US (1-2 USG) Middle East India (1 port W. Coast) Middle East India (2-3 ports W. Coast) Middle East India (1 port E. Coast) Middle East India (1 port E. Coast) Middle East- Far East (Taiwan) Middle East Far East (South Korea) Indonesia Far East (Taiwan) Cargo size (t) 20-23,000 23,500 8-15,000 12-15,000 23,500 38-40,000 38-40,000 23,500 23,500 23,500 15,000 15,000 23,500 23,500 23,500 15-20,000 Rates 40-45 26-28 47-50 80-82 60-62 65-70 74-77 86-87 94-95 27-33 43-50 55-70 45-58 75-85 84-100 40-45

FERTECONPriceDefinition: Prices, rounded to the nearest US$, represent the last known spot business and current indications, for 4-40,000 t cargoes, net of credit.
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ANALYSIS
Ammonia prices continue to rise, with new business out of the Black Sea this week at $570 fob for a 4-5,000 t lot. This follows on from a major sale last week at $550 see last report. The higher prices have now encouraged OPZ in Ukraine to bring its second ammonia line at Yuzhnyy back on-stream, having been idled since late 2011. The plant is now in the process of starting up. Baltic prices are also rising. The sale of an 8-10,000 t cargo was concluded out of the Baltic late last week/early this week at $570 fob for early June lifting. In the MiddleEast, Qafco has made a spot sale of 10,000 t to Mitsui at $570 fob for 2nd half May shipment. Netbacks to Middle East producers for contract deliveries to India are also increasing with a latest shipment from Qatar to India at $502 cfr on the east coast. On the west coast a cargo has been delivered at a price that is understood to net back to around $465 fob Middle East. Latest deliveries to east coast India ranged from $483.75 cfr with 30 days (reflecting CIFCs contract delivery to IFFCO) up to $520 cfr for the recent delivery from PIC to FACT. The rise in international pricing continues to be driven by tight supply, with shortfalls from the Middle East, Algeria and Southeast Asia. Sabic had much less ammonia available in April/early May due to the closure of one major ammonia line at Al Jubail and a turnaround at the Al Jubail terminal in April/early May, and even though Sabic is once again shipping from Al Jubail, product remains in tight supply, with strong demand from contract customers. Sabic has no spot availability until end June/early July. There is strong demand from FarEast buyers who are requiring maximum volumes under long-term contracts. Furthermore, shortfalls in supply from Indonesia, which are delaying some deliveries to Far East consumers, are also resulting in a rash of inquiries for spot tonnes but few have anything to offer. P.T. Gresik, however, was able to secure a spot cargo of Iranian ammonia on the Gas Cat at a price reported to be around $530 cfr. However, a few thousand tonnes of Egyptian ammonia has been sold spot to Thailand at a price reported to be around/ over $630 cfr the tonnes will be delivered on the Brussels, which will load shortly in Ain Sukhna and which was already intended for Thailand (and Japan) in any case to cover contractual commitments.

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SUPPLIERS
FSU
FSU: FSU: Yuzhnyy/Black Sea Some 4-5,000 t of top-off tonnes were bought by a trader this week at $570 fob. As reported last week Yara bought 60,000 t from NF Trading at $550 fob for June lifting to be shipped as one 40,000 t lot and two 10,000 t lots. With higher prices, OPZ in Ukraine is now in the process of restarting its second ammonia line, which has been idle since late 2011. DnieproAzot restarted late April after a months turnaround. May/June export commitments out of Yuzhnyy are as below.
Vessel MAY Pertusola Gas Grouper Gas Manta Nijinsky Gas Cobia Pacific Marigola Pertusola Nijinsky Clipper Mars Clipper Neptun Gas Grouper JUNE Pertusola Nijinsky Pacific Tbn Tbn Tbn Yara Transammonia Yara Koch Yara Yara I-Trade Nitrochem Nitrochem Transammonia Nitrochem Yara Yara Yara Transammonia Nitrochem Koch Nitrochem Trader 000 t 275.6 12 23.5 23.5 14.6 23.5 40 10 10 15 40 40 23.5 125 12 15 40 38 10 10 n/a n/a n/a United States n/a n/a 1 June 1-10 June Mid June 2nd half June June June Turkey (Ceyhan) Tunisia Morocco Turkey (Samsun) n/a N.W. Europe France (Ambes) Haifa Chems/Israel n/a United States United States n/a 7-8 May 10 May 13-14 May 16 May Eta 18 May 17 May 21 May 21 May 21-22 May Arrived 15 May, waiting for tonnes Eta 24-25 May Eta 25 May Destination Load Date

BalticSea The sale of a spot cargo of ammonia has been concluded earlier this week at $570 fob for early June lifting.

CARIBBEAN
TRINIDAD: As reported previously, product is in tight supply due to the 20% gas curtailment through the month of May. PotashCorp has scaled back its 01 and 02 ammonia plants in Trinidad because they are less efficient than 03 and 04.
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AFRICA
ALGERIA:As reported previously, product is in tight supply out of Algeria where the Annaba ammonia plant is down in May for turnaround, to be followed by the closure of one line at Arzew in June. This is earlier than usual, as Algerian turnarounds have typically been done in the 3rd quarter. EGYPT: Transammonia will load the SCF Tobolsk around 22 May at the OCI/EBIC plant in Ain Sukhna for shipment to JPMC/Jordan and to Madagascar. The Brussels will also load 23,400 t in Ain Sukhna with for shipment to Thailand and Japan covering Transammonias contractual commitments. A small lot off this vessel has been sold spot to Thailand.

MIDDLEEAST
IRAN: The Gas Cat loaded in BIK on 5-7 May and is due into Gresik/Indonesia on 21 May with a cargo of ammonia for P.T. Petrokimia Gresik sold by Swiss Singapore at a price said to be around $530 cfr. CIFC is shipping around 15,000 t of Iranian ammonia on the Jag Viraj to Iffco at Kandla, west coast India, for arrival 2223 May. The vessel arrived in Assaluyeh to load on 16 May. This is one of three cargoes booked out of Bandar Assaluyeh/Iran in May/June for India on the Jag Viraj, one loading mid May, one around 27-28 May and another in early June the cargoes are understood to be intended for both west and east coast. QATAR:Qafco has sold 10,000 t to Mitsui at $570 fob for 2nd half May lifting. The Al Majedah loaded 3 May in Qatar, delivering to India for SPIC at Tuticorin on 9-10 May and to MCFL at Mangalore on 11-12 May under Qafcos long-term contracts. The price of these contract tonnes is understood to give a netback of $465 fob for Qafco. The vessel also finally delivered to FACT at Cochin on 13-14 May under PICs tender award. The Gas Columbia, which loaded 12,000 t in Qatar for Qafco on 1 May and 11,000 t for Mitsui from Abu Dhabi on 2-5 May has discharged in east coast India for CIL. The price of the cargo was $502 cfr. The Al Marona was back in Messaieed on 16 May to load. The Al Majedah is due back into Messaieed on 18 May. A part cargo will load in Qatar. (The balance of 7,000 t will load in Saudi Arabia on the vessel on 22 May which is a return swap from Sabic to PIC.) Qafco will ship around 23,000 t on the Tilos to PPL/east coast India under long-term contract. The Tilos is due to arrive in Messaieed around 25-27 May to load. Qafco 5 granular urea is reported to be running at around 80% capacity. SAUDIARABIA: Sabic is still tight for supply and is only fulfilling long-term contractual commitments at the moment. There is no expected spot requirement until end June/early July at the earliest. Demand from Sabics Far East customers is increasing due to shortfalls from other suppliers, notably southeast Asia. Sabic loaded 19,000 t on the Camberley in Al Jubail on 16 May for shipment to west coast India for GSFC and Hindalco. The Al Majedah will load 7,000 t in RAK on 22 May this is the return swap from Sabic to PIC. The Camberley will then load again in Al Jubail on 30 May and will ship 23,000 t to the Far East. The Al Barrah will load 23,000 t on 6 June in RAK for shipment to the Far East. A tbn will load 23,000 t on 10 June in Al Jubail for east coast India. The MPC DAP plant has continued to ramp up its rate of output over the past week and is currently operating at 70-75% capacity, producing the equivalent of 175-185,000 t/m.
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Middle East ammonia export commitments for May/June are as follows:

Vessel MAY Gas Columbia Al Majedah Al Jabirah Gas Cat SFC Tobolsk Rose Gas Camberley Jag Viraj Al Marona Al Majedah Tilos Camberley Jag Viraj JUNE Al Barrah tbn Jag Viraj RAK = Ras Al-Khair Sabic/S.A. (RAK) Sabic/S.A. (Al Jubail) CIFC/ex-Iran (B. Assaluyeh) Qatar (12) & Mitsui/ Abu Dhabi (11) Qafco/ex-S.A. (RAK - 7) & Qatar? (8) Sabic/S.A. (Al Jubail) Raintrade/Iran thro Swiss Singapore KIT/ex- Oman Sabic/S.A. (RAK) Sabic/S.A. (Al Jubail) CIFC/ex-Iran (B. Assaluyeh) Qafco/Qatar Qafco/Qatar (8) & Sabic/S.A. (RAK) (7) Qafco/Qatar Sabic/S.A. (Al Jubail) CIFC/ex-Iran (B. Assaluyeh) Supplier/Origin 000 t 190.25 23 15.5 23 18 15.75 23 19 15 ? 15 23 23 15 61 23 23 15 Far East EC India India l-t contract l-t contract n/a 6 June 10 June June CIL/EC India To PIC for FACT/WCI (6.5) Qafco to MCFL/WCI (4) & SPIC/ECI (5), Namhae/South Korea P.T. Gresik/Indonesia KIT for Iffco/WC India Huchems/S.K (5-6) & TFC/Taiwan GSFC & Hindalco/WCI Iffco/WC India ? EC India PPL/EC India Far East India 502 swap tonnes l-t contracts equiv 465 fob l-t contract 530 l-t contract l-t contract l-t contracts n/a ? l-t contract l-t contract l-t contract n/a 1-5 May 2-4 May 5 May 5-7 May 6 May 11 May 16 May 16 May 16 May 18-22 May 25-27 May 30 May late May Destination Price $/t cfr unless stated Load Date

SOUTHEASTASIA
BANGLADESH: The Kafcoplant in Chittagong has restated after a turnaround. INDONESIA:The Viking River arrives in Bontang today to load ammonia from KPA for Yara, under a swap arrangement with Mitsui. Mitsui has the Nashwan in Bontang loading for South Korea and Japan. The Gaz Venezia is due back in Bontang on 20 May to load again for Mitsui to go to Vietnam. MALAYSIA: The Bunga Kemboja is back in Kerteh from Thailand.
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MARKETS
AFRICA
MOROCCO: Nitrochems vessel, the Gas Manta, which loaded in Yuzhnyy on 13-14 May, is due into Jorf Lasfar on 22 May for OCP. TUNISIA: Nitrochems vessel, the Gas Grouper, arrived in Gabes on 16 May. Production at GCTs phosphoric acid, DAP and TSP plants is on hold. There are ongoing issues as protests continue to prevent the regular supply of phosphate rock from the Gafsa mining basin to its plants at the coast. GCT has been receiving sporadic rock deliveries via truck and rail and is continuing its attempts to build its rock inventory at the downstream plants to permit them to restart. Reports of disruption at the port of Gabes due to a strike are not thought to be a major issue, with a solution expected imminently.

ASIA/OCEANIA
INDIA: Indian ammonia demand continues to be affected by the shortfalls in phosphoric acid supply. There has been no breakthrough yet on OCPs negotiations with its j-v partners for Q2 shipments of Moroccan phosphoric acid with the producer still understood to be holding out for $905 P2O5 cfr against buyers price ideas of about $850 P2O5 cfr. CIL is reported due to receive 20,000 t Israeli phosphoric acid solution at the end of May, priced provisionally at $850 P2O5 cfr. However, CIL is also not due to receive any phosphoric acid from Foskor/South Africa, which is running at reduced rates, while GCTs phosphoric acid production in Tunisia is reported to be down. Similarly, JPMC is not shipping any Jordanian phosphoric acid to India at present. As reported last week, Zuari is understood to have been obliged to shut down its fertilizer plant at Goa due to a shortage of phosphoric acid. The plant has the capacity to produce 330,000 t/y DAP and 330,000 t/y NP/NPKs. As a result of the shortfalls in acid supply, Indian DAP production is expected to be affected during May/June with a consequent impact on ammonia demand. However, May deliveries of ammonia, so far looking to be just over 140,000 t, are significantly higher than April. WESTCOAST: CIFC is shipping around 15,000 t of Iranian ammonia on the Jag Viraj to Iffco at Kandla, west coast India, for arrival 22-23 May. The vessel arrived in Assaluyeh to load on 16 May. This is one of three cargoes booked out of Bandar Assaluyeh/Iran in May/June for India on the Jag Viraj, one loading mid May, one around 27-28 May and another in early June the cargoes are understood to be intended for both west and east coast. Sabic/S. Arabia loaded 19,000 t on the Camberley in Al Jubail on 16 May for shipment to West Coast India for GSFC and Hindalco. EASTCOAST: The Gas Columbia, which loaded 12,000 t in Qatar for Qafco on 1 May and 11,000 t for Mitsui from Abu Dhabi on 2-5 May has just discharged in east coast India for CIL. The price of the cargo was $502 cfr. The Maersk Genesis, which loaded 15,000 t on 7-8 May at the OCI/EBIC facilities Ain Sukhna in Egypt for CIFC, is now understood to be arriving in Paradeep around 25 May for Iffco. The cargo is now understood to have been priced at $483.75 cfr with 30 days credit. The final price of CIFCs cargo of Qatari ammonia on the Gaschem Hamburg, which discharged for PPL at Paradeep on 2-4 May, is $432.50 with 30 days. PPL will receive around 23,000 t from Qafco on the Tilos on 5-6 June under their long-term contract. The Tilos is due to arrive in Messaieed/Qatar on 25 May to load. May/June deliveries into India so far total at least 127,000 t, which is higher than in April.
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Buyer/Location MAY WestCoast Iffco/Kandla Iffco/Kandla GSFC/Sikka Hindalco/Dahej MCFL/Mangalore FACT/Cochin EastCoast SPIC/Tuticorin CIL/Kakinada CIL/Vizag CIL/EC Iffco/Paradeep Iffco/Paradeep PPL/Paradeep JUNE EastCoast PPL/Paradeep

Supplier

000 t 141.75 60.25

Price $/t cfr unless stated

Discharge

Vessel

KIT/ex-Oman CIFC/ex-Iran Sabic/S.A. Sabic/S.A. Qafco/Qatar PIC/ex-S. Arabia

15.75 15 19 4 6.5 81.5

l-t contract n/a l-t contract l-t contract l-t contract 520

9-10 May 22-23 May 18-22 May? 18-22 May? early May 7-12 May

SCF Tobolsk Jag Viraj Camberley Camberley Al Majedah Al Majedah

Qafco/Qatar Qafco/Qatar Qafco/Qatar Qafco/Qatar CIFC/ex-Iran CFIC/ex-Egypt Qafco/Qatar

5 6.5 5 23 15 15 12 23 23

l-t contract l-t contract l-t contract 502 l-t contract 483.75 w 30 d 432.50 w 30 d

early May Early May Early May 16 May 3-4 May 25 May 2-4 May

Al Majedah Gaschem Hamburg Gaschem Hamburg Gas Columbia Jag Viraj Maersk Genesis Gaschem Hamburg

Qafco/Qatar

23

l-t contract

5-6 June

Tilos

CHINA:The Polar, which loaded in Dampier/Australia on 11-13 May, is on its way to China and is showing an eta Caojing of 23 May for Yaras delivery to ShanghaiSecco. INDONESIA: The Gas Cat is due into Gresik on 21 May with a cargo of Iranian ammonia sold to P.T.PetrokimiaGresik by Swiss Singapore with local sources saying that the sales price was around $530 cfr. SOUTHKOREA: The Gas Mahi is due into Ulsan tomorrow 18 May, with a Mitsui delivery to SFC which was loaded in Qatar. As reported previously, Mitsubishi is due to deliver a cargo in early June, on either the Antwerpen or the Berlian Ekuator. Then Sabic and Mitsui will follow with one lot each to SFC. Sabic has the Al Jabirah scheduled to arrive in Yosu on 22 May for Namhae. Sabic also has the Rose Gas en route to South Korea to discharge 5-6,000 t in Incheon for Huchems, eta 31 May. Imports of ammonia into South Korea April were 86,000 t, including 40,500 t from Australia, 23,200 t from Saudi Arabia and 15,000 t from Malaysia. Exports (i.e. re-exports) were 10,500 t, mostly to Japan, double the usual volume, although this was expected following the closure of the Asahi ammonia plant in Japan in March. THAILAND: A small spot lot of Egyptian ammonia has been sold into Thailand at around $630 cfr. AUSTRALIA: In announcing its financial results, IncitecPivot said that it was to commission its new EGAN facility at Moranbah this year. The company also said the feasibility studies continued into an AN project at Newcastle, NSW.
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NORTHAMERICA
UNITEDSTATES: Low gas prices in the United States are encouraging significant interest in the development of new ammonia/nitrogen fertilizer projects. The restart of the last remaining idled ammonia capacity in the US is already underway OCIs Beaumont plant started up in December 2011 and PotashCorps Geismar plant will be operational by end 2012/early 2013. There is also debottlenecking work underway at some capacity. Furthermore, last year there was an announcement that IowaFertilizerCo., a subsidiary of OCI, was looking at developing an ammonia/urea/UAN/DEF plant in Iowa. SummitPowerGroup is also proceeding with a coal gasification plant in West Texas, which includes the addition of downstream ammonia and urea which the company expects to be operational in 2015. However, plans to add new capacity have been accelerating and two recent announcements have been made. IncitecPivot has just announced that it is looking into the feasibility of constructing an ammonia plant in the US. KochFertilizer has announced that it has retained Black & Veatch, a global engineering, consulting and construction company, to help develop numerous projects to increase its North American production by more than two million tons annually through production enhancements and new capacity investments. Initial stages of these projects will focus on production enhancements within Koch Fertilizers nitrogen production facilities in Ft. Dodge, Iowa; Dodge City, Kan.; Beatrice, Neb.; Enid, Okla.; and Brandon, Manitoba. Undertaking these projects will allow us to better serve the needs of our customers. With crop production continuing to increase, the demand for fertilizer is also increasing, said Steve Packebush, president of Koch Fertilizer. Koch Fertilizer is also investing in its terminal distribution system. The business has several active projects, including adding an ammonia terminal in Conway, Kan., a dry and liquid fertilizer terminal in Stockton, Calif., and various other liquid and dry storage projects across the U.S. and Canada. Driven by rapid changes in technology and a shortened application period for fertilizer, we are proactively investing in our distribution network, Scott McGinn, senior vice president for North America said. We continue to focus on expanding our storage and distribution system to meet the supply demands of our customers and the market. Koch Fertilizers distribution system consists of more than 60 terminals within North America. A variety of products are moved through its distribution system, including ammonia, urea, liquid fertilizer, phosphate, potash, and sulphur-based products. Domesticmarket Demand has been strong for ammonia moving to corn preplant in eastern and central North Dakota. Wholesalers in central and southern Michigan said corn is now 80% planted. Demand for ammonia is heavy statewide in Ohio for corn sidedress. Fall prepay ammonia is on offer at $650 in northern Indiana and northern Illinois. Ammonia is going out in moderate volume to corn sidedress in central Illinois. Demand is light for ammonia moving to corn sidedress in western Illinois and eastern Iowa, where wholesalers expect the volume to increase over the next few days. Demand has been moderate for ammonia going to corn preplant in eastern Colorado. The only major demand left is for ammonia going to corn sidedress in the cornbelt but this should be nearly complete in the next 1-2 weeks.

COMPANYRESULTS
AUSTRALIA: Incitec Pivot has announced a 13% drop in Net Profit After Tax in the six month period ending 31 March. A 21% increase in earnings in the explosive business helped compensate for a fall in income on the fertilizer side. Earnings before interest and Tax (EBIT) in the fertilizer business was down 56% to A$60.9 million whilst that for Dyno Nobel Americas was up 27% and Dyno Nobel Asia Pacific up 20%. Overall earnings for explosives was up 21% to A$177.5 million. Production is anticipated to start at the Moranbah AN plan in July this year with 50,000 t forecast to be produced in the 2012 financial year. The 200,000 t/y AN emulsion plant at Port Hedland is on track for production later this calendar year. A decision should be taken on the NSW AN project early 2013 and a feasibility study is also underway for the construction of a world scale ammonia plant in the US. A decision in this is also expected early 2013.
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NATURALGAS
WESTEUROPE: European spot gas prices are lower this week in dollar terms. UK day-ahead gas is slightly higher in GBP at 59.35p/therm but marginally lower in dollars ($9.47/mmBtu) compared to 58.65p/therm last week. Continental spot hub prices are also lower, at the equivalent of $9.19/mmBtu compared to $9.50 last week. Forward prices for June and July are lower, around the equivalent of $8.90 compared to $9.45/mmBtu last week. UKRAINE: Naftogaz is forecasting an average imported gas price from Russia at $440/mcm (around $12.50/mmBtu) for 2012. The Q2 price is $425/mcm, up from $416 in Q1. Ukraine plans to buy 27 bcm from Russia this year, well below the minimum volume specified in the controversial 2009 contract signed by Yulia Tymoshenko. Last year Ukraine imported 40.2 bcm from Russia. Ukraine is still trying to renegotiate the oil-linked gas contract with Russia. Ukraine has signed shale gas exploration deals with Royal Dutch/Shell and Chevron. A government minister said yesterday that drilling will start next year and there could be shale gas production by 2017, although this seems optimistic. Shell will develop deposits in eastern Donetsk and Kharkiv regions in the east and Chevron will develop the Oleske region in western Ukraine. The Ukrainian government estimates reserves at up to 3.5 tcm. The US EIA estimate is 1.2 tcm. The government estimates that the two areas under development could yield around 15 bcm/year, equivalent to just under one third of Ukraines gas consumption. Ukraine is also developing coalbed methane, conventional onshore gas and deep water offshore gas. It recently leased two deepwater rigs. It is also planning an LNG import terminal to reduce dependence on Russian gas. UNITEDSTATES: US gas prices at the Henry Hub are higher than last week at $2.4997/mmBtu yesterday compared to $2.3583. Prices at the MidCont hub were also higher, at $2.4361 compared to $2.2398 Forward prices on the NYMEX yesterday for June were $2.618/mmBtu, compared to $2.465 last week. The 3-month spread is $2.683 and the 12-month spread $3.167. NYMEX prices were: Jun $2.618, Jul $2.687, Aug $2.744, Sep $2.778, Oct $2.852, Nov $3.105, Dec $3.417, Jan 13 $3.568, Feb $3.580, Mar $3.558, Apr $3.530, May $3.562. The US EIA released its latest short-term energy forecast last week. Despite some upward movement in spot and forward prices recently, it has reduced its forecast for 2012 to $2.45/mmBtu at the Henry Hub from $2.51 last month. Its forecast price for 2013 is $3.17. FERTECONs forecasts are $2.50 for 2012 and $3.50 for 2013.

AGRICULTURE
CROPFUTURES: Developments in the crop futures market have been mixed over the past week on the Chicago Board of Trade. Corn has dropped over 21 cents on last week although overnight firming is expected to bring the price back up, despite economic concerns over outside markets. Various announcements from the USDA of export sales to China are providing support for corn. Increased production of ethanol is also a factor which may help to prop up prices. Wheat futures have seen significant gains compared with a week ago as dry weather in the southern Plains is a worry as well as reports of dryness in the FSU. Soybean futures show a moderate decrease on a week ago but are expected to pick up on the back of ongoing declines in the South American soybean crop estimates. Supplies out of Argentina are tight, leading buyers to US suppliers instead.

CMECROPPRICEScents/bushel
Product Corn Wheat Soybean Rough rice Price Jul 2012 620 638.6 1,422 1,511.5 Weekly change -21.2 +47.4 -5.6 -4.5 Price Sep 2012 537 651.2 1,342.2 1,534.5 Price Nov/Dec 2012 526.2 671 1,302.2 1,559.5 Price May 2011 749.6 817 1,379.4 1,489

Prices are Wednesdays closing rates for the forward months indicated. The 2011 price in the final column is the forward price reported one year ago.

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FORWARDCROPPRICES

1500

1200 Jul-12 Cents/bushel 900 Sep-12 Nov/Dec 12 600 May-11

300

0
Source: CME/CBOT

Corn

Wheat

Soybean

Rice

FERTILIZERDERIVATIVES
Bids and offers for FIS ammonia cash settled derivatives are as follows: FERTILIZERSWAPS
Ammonia cfr Tampa ($/tonne) Month May 12 June 12 July 12 Bid 540 480 350 Offer 550 500 450 Mid 545 490 400

ForfurtherinformationcontactFIS: Ron Foxon: +44 207 090 1122 / +44 7738 726557 Alexey Paliy: +1 212 634 6424 / +1 203 979 7023 Rob Duncan: +1 502 357 0094 / +1 502 410 8899 Email: ferts@freightinvestor.com www.freightinvestor.com

ANALYSTS:VivienBrightandMartaJamrozy TEL: +44(0)1892701710 EMAIL: info@fertecon.com

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