Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
danh mc
u t
Nhm 5
Hong Ngc Tn 36k07.1
Bi Tin t 36k07.3
Nguyn c Hiu 36k07.1
I.Kinh t th gii
1.1 D bo tng trng kinh t ton cu
i vi nm 2012, IMF d bo
tng trng ton cu ch t 3,3%,
gim so vi mc d bo 3,5% hi
thng By, bin 2012 thnh nm
tng trng thp nht k t nm
2009. n nm 2013, con s ny
cng ch nhch nh ln 3,6%, vn
thp hn mc d bo 3,9% trong
thng By.
I.Kinh t th gii
1.2 Tng trng mt s nn kinh t ch cht
BRICS:
Theo d bo ca Qu tin t th gii (IMF), cc
nc BRICS se ch t c tc tng trng trung
bnh 5,8% trong giai on t nay n nm 2016, thp
hn gn 2 im phn trm so vi 5 nm trc
khi khng hong 2009 din ra.
I.Kinh t th gii
Trung Quc
Theo cnh bo ca cc
chuyn gia kinh t, Trung
Quc tng trng chm chp
co th ging mt on mnh
vo cc thi trng hng hoa
cng nh cc nn kinh t
khc.
Trung Quc hin ang
chim ti 65% nhu cu v
qung st v 40% lng ng
tiu th trn ton th gii.
I.Kinh t th gii
M
Theo s liu chnh thc
ca B Thng mi M,
GDP nc ny tng
trng 1,7% trong qu II, cao
hn mc d on ban u l
1,5%. Tuy nhin, s liu ny
li gim nh so vi 2% qu
trc o. Mc tng trn
tng ng 0,43% so vi
qu I, cao hn d on ca
cc chuyn gia l 0,38%.
I.Kinh t th gii
Eurozone
T chc xp hng tn
nhim Standard & Poor's
d bo tng sn phm
quc ni (GDP) trong nm
2012 ca khu vc ng
euro (eurozone) se gim
0,8% v tng nh 0,3%
trong nm 2013.
II. Tc ng ca cc nn kinh t ln n
Vit Nam:
II
Suy thoi
kinh t
nh
hng
n xut
khu ca
Vit Nam
Ngun
vn vay
t
nc
ngoi
b gim
III
Dng
kiu
hi b
gim
IV
Suy
thoi
kinh t
tc ng
xu n
ngnh
du lch
Ngnh
Dc
Ngnh
Cao su
Ngnh dc ph hp hn i vi NT
gi tr, nm gi trung v di hn, do
dng tin tng i n nh v c tc
cao.
Cao su l ngnh c h s n thp, ch yu n
ngn hn nn chi ph li vay khng ng k, li
nhun bin cng kh tt. Gi c phiu t bin
ng trong ngn hn nhng thng bin ng
vo cui nm do li th xut khu
Hnh 2. Tnh hnh xut khu cao su t nhin tnh n cui 2011
Cc ch s
DPR
PHR
TRC
HRC
TNC
2.331
5.073
2.041
1.095
480
919
1.394
777
221
161
Tng ti sn (t ng)
1.367
2.142
845
450
291
N ngn hn (t ng)
304
846
135
56
33
Tng n (t ng)
349
884
167
65
34
Vn ch s hu (t ng)
1.000
1.249
679
385
257
41,81
31,82
39,82
22,97
35,04
38,16
24,92
38,58
23,87
31
ROI (%)
67,01
67,06
103,3
58,23
51,47
ROA (%)
65,08
64,93
102,48 58,09
51,22
ROE (%)
88,92
111,32
127,62 67,88
58
11,84
-130,1
9,48
23,45
3,96
1,71
2,61
2,66
2,43
1,65
24,85
22,8
27,62
23,66
12,5
0,57
0,25
1,42
0,15
0,93
1,47
0,75
2,39
1,2
3,87
1,65
0,95
2,75
1,84
4,61
Ti sn:
Tng ti sn tng mnh theo
cc nm, nm 2009 tng gn
20%, nm 2010 tng gn 35%,
nm 2011 tng 45%. Nhng
6T/2012, tng ti sn khng
tng m gim nh 0,8%. Trong
o ti sn ngn hn gim nh
trong khi ti sn di hn li tng
ln. Cc khon u t di hn
vn duy tr n inh, tng nh
qua cc nm. Tin mt v tng
ng tin c duy tr mc
kh cao trong c cu ti sn,
chim khong 27%.
STT
Tn cng ty
Li nhun
sau thu
CTCP Dc Hu Giang
1.996
1.382
2.491
416
CTCP DOMESCO
834
575
1.132
81
CTCP Traphaco
838
400
1.063
89
561
409
1.045
77
828
709
776
78
842
232
630
-31
CTCP Dc phm H Ty
304
119
630
17
CTCP Mediplantex
337
104
587
292
78
548
12
10
467
306
409
50
11
CTCP Bidiphar1
250
192
292
40
12
378
244
282
26
13
152
119
264
39
14
CTCP Dc Becamex
163
47
110
15
73
31
85
8.315
4.947
10.344
903
Ch tiu
Q2 2012
Nm 2011
Nm 2010
Ti sn ngn hn/Tng ti sn
75%
75%
79%
Ti sn di hn/Tng ti sn
25%
25%
21%
29%
30%
29%
N phi tr/Vn ch s hu
41%
44%
41%
Vn ch s hu/Tng ngun vn
70%
69%
70%
286%
274%
306%
186%
179%
232%
91%
86%
136%
129%
131%
122%
172%
170%
153%
Vong quay vn ch s hu
181%
187%
177%
21%
20%
21%
23%
22%
23%
32%
32%
33%
35%
33%
38%
27%
22%
16%
Vn ch s hu
-3%
8%
26%
Tin mt
-1%
-27%
10%
Tng trng so vi
cng k nm 2011
Tng trng so
vi Q1
691,5
19%
11,5%
Li nhun 157,4
rng
30%
54%
T sut li tc ngy
p dng cng thc:
Pt 1 Pt
rt (ngy)
Pt
Trong :
rt l t sut li tc hng ngy ca chng khon.(%)
Pt+1 l gi iu chnh ca chng khon ngy t+1
Pt l gi iu chnh ca chng khon ngy t
rt (th)
rt ( ngy
i 1
* 22
E ( R ) DPR
r
i 1
iDPR
-i vi DHG:
n
E ( R) DHG
r
i 1
i DHG
2
(
r
E
(
Ri
)
)
i
i 1
Tnh c
n 1
DPR = 0.118380689
DHG = 0.079644451
Cov
DPR, DHG
(r
i 1
iDPR
n 1
Tnh c CovDPR,DHG= 0.005042835
Cov
DPR
DPR, DHG
DHG
Tnh c = 0.534857872
wDPR
E ( R P ) E ( R ) DHG
E ( R ) DPR E ( R ) DHG
Bc 3
2
DPR
2
DPR
2
DHG
2
DHG
DPR
2
DPR
DPR,DHG
DHG
2
DHG 2 DPR,DHG
v WDHG= 1 WDPR
Ta tnh c
WDPR = 12.66%
WDHG = 87.34%
E(RP) = WDPRE(R)DPR+ WDHGE(R)DHG = 2,027%
2
2
2
2
wDPR
DPR
wDHG
DHG
2.wDPR wDHG DPR DHG
= 0.0786041
E ( Rp ) r f
Danh mc u t ti u l danh mc ti h s gc
ng CAL l ln nht, v tnh c Smax = 0.18983197
Danh mc u t ti u
WDPR
WDHG
E(Rp)
p
0.329692973
0.670307027
2.13%
0.081254313
Hm hu dng :
U E( Rc) 0,005A c2
E ( RC ) R f y[ E ( RP ) R f ]
2
c
y
2
p
Ta c :
E( Rp ) r f
y 0,01A
2
p
Nu c 100 triu ta s u t
T l
u t vo ti sn phi ri ro
22.12%
22.12434987
DPR
25.68%
25.67505465
DHG
52.20%
52.20059548
u t vo ti sn ri ro
29/6/2012
26/10/2012
DPR
52
54
DHG
63.5
67
Gi tr danh mc
100
104.3809351
= 0.427000031
= 0.924313492
DHG
DPR
S=
E ( Rm) rf