(1)

(3)

(6)

9
2
10

10

19

33

34

34

35
3
40
1
40
40

52

.. 2513-2548
54
2
66

66

79

(2)
()

4
1

2
(Stationary)
(Cointegration)
(Causality Test)
(Oil shock)

(Variance Decomposition)

(Oil shock)
(Impulse Response Functions)
5

89
89
89
94
94
98
100

121
127
127
132

135

140

115

141

( Economic View: E-view)
190

(3)

1.1

1.2

3.1

3.2

3.3

3.4

.. 2543-2547

.. 2543-2547

3-9

56

3-9

57

(Arabian Light)
1 .. 2513-2520

59

(Arabian Light)
2 .. 2522-2526

63

3.5

GDP
.. 2531 70

3.6

GDP
.. 2531
74

3.7

GDP
.. 2531
77

(4)
()

3.8
(Oil-output Ration)
3-7

82

3.9
(Oil-output Ration)
3-7

85

3.10
(Oil-output Ration)
3-7

87

4.1 Unit Root Test

98

4.2 Cointegration

100

4.3 Unit Root Test Residual

101

4.4

102

4.5
(Error Correction Model: ECM)

114

4.6 (Granger Causality Relationship)

ECM

114

83

86

88

(5)
()

4.7 Variance Decomposition

(Oil shock)

119

4.8 Variance Decomposition

(Oil shock)

120

4.9 Variance Decomposition

(Oil shock)

121

(6)

1.1

..2547

3.1

.. 2513-2547

67

.. 2513-2547

69

3-9 (.. 2515-2549)

71

3.2

3.3

3.4

3-9 (.. 2515-2549)
72

3.5

3-9 (.. 2515-2549)

75

3.6

3-9 (.. 2515-2549)
78

3.7

3-9 (.. 2515-2549)

78

(At level)

96

4.1

(7)
()

4.2

Impulse Response Functions GY1 GE1

123

4.3

Impulse Response Functions GY1 GE2

124

4.4

Impulse Response Functions GY1 GE3

125

4.5

Impulse Response Functions GY2 GE2

126

4.6

Impulse Response Functions GY3 GE3

127