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  • COM Economist 03 The Devils Excrement

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    Eddy Illanes Andaluz
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    A new book from the Open Society Institute points out that resourcepoor countries grew two to three times faster than resourcerich countries between 1960 and 1990. An oil bonanza causes a sudden rush of foreign earnings? this drives up the value of the currency, making domestic goods less competitive at home and abroad. Oil economies such as Norway and Alaska have come up with a clever (though imperfect) solution: they hive off much of the oil income into "stabilisation" funds.

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    COM Economist 03 the Devils Excrement

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    A new book from the Open Society Institute points out that resourcepoor countries grew two to three times faster than resourcerich countries between 1960 and 1990. An oil bonanza causes a sudden rush of foreign earnings? this drives up the value of the currency, making domestic goods less competitive at home and abroad. Oil economies such as Norway and Alaska have come up with a clever (though imperfect) solution: they hive off much of the oil income into "stabilisation" funds.

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    10 vues2 pages

    COM Economist 03 The Devils Excrement

    Transféré par

    Eddy Illanes Andaluz
    A new book from the Open Society Institute points out that resourcepoor countries grew two to three times faster than resourcerich countries between 1960 and 1990. An oil bonanza causes a sudden rush of foreign earnings? this drives up the value of the currency, making domestic goods less competitive at home and abroad. Oil economies such as Norway and Alaska have come up with a clever (though imperfect) solution: they hive off much of the oil income into "stabilisation" funds.

    Droits d'auteur :

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Téléchargez comme PDF, TXT ou lisez en ligne sur Scribd
    Signaler comme contenu inapproprié
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    Economicsfocus Thedevil'sexcrement

    Isoilwealthablessingoracurse? May22nd2003|Fromtheprintedition

    THREEdecadesago,theOrganisationofPetroleumExportingCountries(OPEC)sentoilpricesrocketing.By1980, abarrelcost$30,tentimesthepricein1970.Consumerssuffered,whereasoilproducersreapedanenormous windfall.ManyassumedthenthatoilwasagiftofGodthatwouldtransformpoorcountriesintoflourishing economieswithinageneration.Yetevenduringthoseheadyearlydaysthereweredoubts.JuanPabloPrez Alfonso,afounderofOPEC,complainedin1975:Icallpetroleumthedevil'sexcrement.Itbringstrouble...Lookat thislocurawaste,corruption,consumption,ourpublicservicesfallingapart.Anddebt,debtweshallhavefor years. Severalnewpublicationsarguethathistoryhasprovedhimright.AnewbookfromtheOpenSocietyInstitute,a foundationfinancedbyGeorgeSoros,pointsoutthatresourcepoorcountriesgrewtwotothreetimesfasterthan resourcerichcountriesbetween1960and1990(evenafteradjustingfordifferencesinpopulation,initialincomeper headandothervariables).Revealingly,theresourcerichcountriesbegantolagonlyafterthe1970sinother words,onlyafteroilwealthstartedtopourin. Twofactorsexplainthis.ThemaineconomicproblemisknownasDutchDisease,aftertheeffectsofthediscovery ofnaturalgasintheNetherlandsinthe1960s.Anoilbonanzacausesasuddenrushofforeignearningsthisdrives upthevalueofthecurrency.That,inturn,makesdomesticallyproducedgoodslesscompetitiveathomeandabroad. Overtime,domesticmanufacturingandagriculturefadeandgrowthsuffers. Inthissection
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    Relateditems Relatedtopics Trickyasthisproblemis,oileconomiessuchasNorwayandAlaskahavecomeupwithaclever(thoughstill imperfect)solution:theyhiveoffmuchoftheoilincomeintostabilisationfunds,disbursingdividendstocitizens slowlydirectlyinAlaska,viasocialspendinginNorwaysothattheeconomydoesnotoverheat.Chile,oneof theworld'smoresuccessfuldevelopingcountries,hasasimilarfundforitscopperrevenues.

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    Economics focus: The devil's excrement | The Economist

    ContrastthiscautiousapproachwiththerecklessnessoftheOPECcountriesoftheMiddleEast,whichexpanded domesticspendingbyabout50%ayearbetween1974and1979.Thisenrichedtheelite,butspawnedwhiteelephant projectsandfuelledinflationofmorethan15%ayear.Venezuelahasearnedover$600billioninoilmoneysince the1970s,buttherealincomeperheadofitscitizensfellby15%between1973and1985.Itisfallingagaintoday. Ontopoftheseeconomicdifficultiescancomeevenworsepoliticalproblems.Becauseoilinfrastructurecanbe controlledeasilybyafew,itoftenleadstoaconcentrationofpoliticalpower.MichaelRoss,oftheUniversityof CaliforniaatLosAngeles,arguesthatoilworsenspovertybystuntingdemocraticdevelopment,amongotherthings. Italsotendstocause,oratleastaggravate,civilwars.AnewreportbyChristianAid,acharity,saysthatoil economiesaremorelikelythannonoileconomiestomaintainlargearmies,andgenerallydoworseonliteracy,life expectancyandothermeasuresofhumandevelopment.Inaddition,suddenoilwealthaffordsampleopportunityfor corruptingthepoliticianswhoawardcontractstoforeignoilfirms. Wishfulthinking? Theserecentreportsaretroubling,butistherereallyanyprospectofchange?Surprisingly,theanswermaybeyes. Forsometimenow,PublishWhatYouPayacollectionofactivistgroupshasbeenpesteringBigOiltorevealall thepaymentsitmakestogovernments,whichusuallyinsistthatsuchdetailsbekeptsecret.Nowsomebiginvestors aregettinginontheacttoo.OnMay19th,teninvestmentfundsmanagingsome$600billionofassetsdeclaredtheir supportfortransparency:Thisisasignificantbusinessrisk,makingcompaniesvulnerabletoaccusationsof complicityincorruptbehaviour...andpossiblycompromisingtheirlongtermcommercialprospects.TonyBlairhas beenpromotingtheExtractiveIndustriesTransparencyInitiative,aschemethatcallsforvoluntarydisclosures. BritainnowplanstopushforaninternationalapproachbyraisingthetopicattheG8summitinFrancenextweekend andataministerialmeetingonJune17th. Amultilateralapproachwouldcertainlybemorerealisticthananynationalorunilateralsteps.ThatiswhatBP discoveredwhenitrecentlyvoluntarilyrevealedthetermsofitscontractsinAngola.Nootheroilcompanyfollowed suit,andthelocalpowersletitbeknownthattheyweredispleased.AmultilateralapproachcouldinvolvetheWorld BankandtheInternationalMonetaryFund,whichcouldpushcountriestopublishthedetailsofcontractsandtoset upresourcefunds.Somecountrieshowlthatsuchinitiativesviolatetheirsovereignty,butthatisasmokescreen: rulerswithnothingtohidewouldsurelywelcometransparency.Others,includingAbuDhabiandKazakhstan,boast thattheyalreadyhavesuchfundsbuttheseareweakenedbyalackofproperoversight.Incontrast,theAmerican proposalfordealingwithIraqioilrevenuescouldresultinthecreationofafundmonitoredbyKofiAnnan. Butreformwillnotbeeasy.TheWorldBankrecentlydemandedtransparencyinreturnforbackingacontroversial pipelinerunningfromChadtoCameroon.Aftermuchhesitation,bothcountriesagreedtosetupmechanismsthat willallowoutsidemonitoringofoilrevenuesandvowedthatthefundswillbeusedonlyfordevelopmentpurposes. TheinkhadbarelydriedontheaccordwhenChad'srulerwascaughtdivertingoilmoneytomilitaryspending. Gettingfirmstopublishwhatyoupayisanessentialfirststep,observedGeorgeSorosatthelaunchoftheOpen Societybook,buttheharderstepistogetgovernmentstopublishwhatyoureceive...andthenbeaccountablefor whatyoureceive. Fromtheprintedition:Financeandeconomics CopyrightTheEconomistNewspaperLimited2013.Allrightsreserved.
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