BRIEFING MANUSCRIPT THE CURRENT POLITICAL SITUATION IN THE MAY 2013 ELECTION

GREETINGS I AM PRIVILEGE TO PRESENT A BRIEFING TITLED SLIDE 1 THE CURRENT POLITICAL SITUATION IN THE MAY 2013 MIDTERM ELECTION. THE FOLLOWING IS MY SLIDE 2 SCOPE OF PRESENTATION
I. II. III. IV.

INTRODUCTION BACKGROUND DISCUSSION ASSESSMENT

I.

INTRODUCTION

THE BRIEFING WILL START AS A BACKGROUNDER, THE POLITICAL TERRAIN AFTER THE 2010 ELECTION. THE POLITICAL TERRAIN WILL COVER THE POLITICAL SITUATION AS A RESULT OF THE

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ELECTION, THE ASCENDANCY OF LP BETS WHO WON AS GOVERNORS AND THE BALANCE OF POWER BETWEEN CONGRESS AND SENATE AT THAT TIME. THE VARIOUS POLITICAL FACTORS IN 2010 WILL BE BRIEFLY HIGHLIGHTED. AFTER THE 2010 ELECTION UP TO THE CURRENT SITUATION, VARIOUS CONFLUENCE OF POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS LIKE SHIFTING OF PARTY AFFILIATIONS TO LP AND MORE SIGNIFICANTLY THE IMPACT OF COALITION SHAPED THE CURRENT POLITICAL LANDSCAPE. IN THE END PROJECTED BALANCE OF POWER 2013 AND ASSESSMENT WILL BE COVERED. AT THE OUTSET AS A BACKGROUNDER, SLIDE 3 IS THE SLIDE 4 POLITICAL TERRAIN SHOWING 10 ELECTED LP CANDIDATES IN THEIR DIFFERENT PROVINCES. THEY ACCOUNT FOR ONLY 25% AGAINST THE TOTAL 80 PROVINCES. THE NEXT SLIDE WILL SHOW THE SLIDE 5 MORE IMPORTANT DIFFERENT POLITICAL FACTORS. THE POLITICAL FACTORS IN 2010 ARE:

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COMMAND VOTES POLITICAL SYNERGY POLITICAL ALLIANCES POLITICAL CLANS OR POLITICAL POSITION HELD TERM IN OFFICE

LET ME EXPOUND ON THESE FACTORS

FOR SLIDE 6 COMMAND VOTES

COMELEC SAYS IT IS THE AVERAGE VOTES TAKEN FROM SUCCESSIVE ELECTIONS, AN ENDORSEMENT OR ARE COMING FROM SUPPORTERS OF POLITICAL CLANS. SHOWN TOO IS SAMPLE PROVINCE OF REGION 3. THERE IS A POSITIVE CORRELATION ON COMMAND VOTES AS AGAINST VOTES GARNERED.

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SLIDE 7 POLITICAL SYNERGY CAN ALSO BE SEEN AS POLITICAL MACHINERY, THE SYNERGY IS DESCRIBED AS GOOD, FAIR OR POOR DEPENDING ON THE PARTY AFFILIATION OF THE MAYORS TO THAT OF THE GOVERNOR. SHOWN ARE SAMPLE PROVINCES OF BOTH GOOD AND POOR SYNERGY RATING AMONG THE 10 LP GOVERNORS ELECTED IN 2010.

SLIDE 8 ON POLITICAL ALLIANCE, GOVERNORS AND CONGRESSMAN CREATED ANOTHER FORM OF SYNERGY EFFECTIVE PARTICULARLY DURING CAMPAIGN PERIOD. SHOWN IS THE ALLIANCE OF THE 10 LP GOVERNORS IN 2010

SLIDE 9 FOR POLITICAL CLANS, A TOTAL OF 39 ARE MEMBERS OF POLITICAL CLAN IN 2010 REPRESENTING 55% OF GOVERNORS NATIONWIDE

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SLIDE 10 TERM OF OFFICE MAY INDICATE THAT POLITICAL PERSONALITIES HAVE GAIN EXPERIENCE AND POLITICAL SAVY FOR THE BALANCE OF POWER IN 2010 SLIDE 11 ONLY 5 ARE LP SENATORS AND ONLY 73 ARE LP CONGRESSMEN SHOWING CLEARLY THAT THE BALANCE OF POWER IS TILTED IN FAVORED OF OTHER POLITICAL PARTIES. SLIDE 12 DISCUSSION

SLIDE 13 TWO SIGNIFICANT POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS AFFECTED THE 2013 POLITICAL SITUATION

SHIFT OF PARTY AFFILIATION TO LP COALITION

SLIDE 14 IN CONGRESS, OUT OF THE 147 CONGRESSMAN RUNNING, 18 SHIFTED PARTY AFFILIATIONS TO LP. LP-LED COALITION TOTALLED 143 FOR A TOTAL OF 290.

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FOR CONGRESS, SLIDE 15 18 ARE SURE WINNERS AS THEY RUN UNOPPOSED AND IT IS EXPECTED 52 LP AND 91 LP-LED CANDIDATES TO WIN. THERE IS NOW A FORMIDABLE 161 LP / LP-LED COALITION CONGRESSMAN CONTESTING OTHER POLITICAL PARTIES IN THE 231 CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT SEATS. TO CONTINUE, SLIDE 16 23 GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATES SHIFTED PARTY AFFILIATION TO LP WHILE LP-LED IS 34 FOR A TOTAL OF 57 FOR THE ADMINISTRATION.

THE NEXT SLIDE WILL SHOW THE GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATES LIKELY TO WIN SLIDE 17 THEIR WINNABILITY ARE BASED IN DIFFERENT POLITICAL FACTORS WITH THE SIGNIFICANT INCLUSION OF THE IMPACT OF COALITION AND APPROPRIATE ALLOCATION OF POINTS. SHOWN IS THE SAMPLE REGION IT IS EXPECTED THAT 35 LP AND 27 LP-LED COALITION GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATES WILL WIN.

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THE NEXT SLIDE SLIDE 18 WILL SHOW THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT POLITICAL FACTORS WITH DRAMATIC INCREASE IN VALUES BECAUSE OF COALITION.

SLIDE 19 WHILE COALITION HAS ITS POSITIVE EFFECT, IT TOO HAS ITS DOWNSIDE---COLLISION THERE ARE 32 PROVINCES ON COLLISION AMONG LP AND LP-LED COALITION CONTESTING EACH OTHER. SHOWN ARE THESE PROVINCES AND SOME OF THEM ARE LISTED IN THE COMELEC AREAS OF CONCERN.

THE NEXT SLIDES WILL SHOW THE CREDIBILITY OF SWS PULSE ASIA IN ITS PREPOLL SURVEY IN 2007 AND 2010.

SLIDE 20 IN 2007, SWS/PULSE ASIA BOTH SHOWED 85.6% STATISTICAL CHANCE OF WINNING FOR THE SENATORIAL BETS, 10 OUT OF 12 WHO WERE PREDICTED BY THE TWO POLL BODIES ACTUALLY WON.

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SLIDE 21 FOR 2010, PULSE ASIA RECEIVED 85.6% WHILE SWS BETTER ITSELF WITH 94% AS 11 OUT 12 SENATORS PRE-SURVEYED LANDED IN THE MAGIC 12.

SWS / PULSE ASIA, HAVE BEEN SHOWN RELIABLE IN ITS SURVEY THUS THE 2013 PREPOLL SURVEY AS SHOWN SLIDE 22 WOULD PROBABLY RESULT IN AN 8-4 RESULT OR 9-3 IN FAVOR OF THE ADMINISTRATION.

SLIDE 23 THE 15 SENATORIAL BETS LIKELY TO WIN AND THE BREAKDOWN OF SENATORS BY PARTIES IS SHOWN.

SLIDE 24 FINALLY, THE PROJECTED BALANCE OF POWER FOR 2013 WILL DEFINITELY FAVOR THE ADMINISTRATION

THE FOLLOWING ARE THE ASSESSMENTS. SLIDE 24 ( THIS WILL BE DONE IN A STEP BY STEP PRESENTATION.

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ASSESSMENT

1. COALITION AND THE SHIFTING OF PARTY AFFILIATION HAS DRAMATICALLY INCREASED THE CHANCES OF POLITICAL PERSONALITIES TO WIN AT THE NATIONAL AND LOCAL LEVEL ELECTION.

2. SWS AND PULSE ASIA PERFORMANCE BASED ON 2007 AND 2010 ACTUAL ELECTION RESULTS ARE VERY RELIABLE. THE HIGH STATISTICAL CHANCE OF WINNING CANDIDATES BASED ON THE TWO (2) POLL BODIES 2013 POLL SURVEYS WILL HAVE A FAVORABLE IMPACT TO THE CURRENT SENATORIAL CANDIDATES.

3. THE HIGH STATISTICAL CHANCE OF WINNING CANDIDATES BASED IN 2007

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AND 2010 POLL SURVEYS WILL HAVE A FAVORABLE IMPACT TO THE CURRENT SENATORIAL CANDIDATES.

4. THE BALANCE OF POWER, AS A CONSEQUENCE OF COALITION IN BOTH CONGRESS AND SENATE, IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR THE CURRENT ADMINISTRATION.

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