KH NNG TIP CN TN DNG NGN HNG CA CC DOANH NGHIP T NHN NG BNG SNG CU LONG

TS. V Thnh Danh1

GII THIU CHUNG Trong nm nhng nm gn y, khu vc kinh t t nhn gp phn ngy cng nhiu vo tng trng kinh t Vit Nam. ng v Nh nc ta c nhng ch trng, chnh sch nhm thc y s pht trin ca khu vc kinh t nng ng ny. Ngh quyt Hi ngh ln th V, Ban chp hnh Trung ng ng kho IX v Tip tc i mi c ch, chnh sch, khuyn khch v to iu kin pht trin kinh t t nhn nh mt ln gi mi to ra s pht trin hn na cho khu vc kinh t ny. C th thy rng mt trong nhng ro cn cho s pht trin ca khu vc kinh t t nhn, m i din l doanh nghip t nhn (DNTN), l s phn bit i x i vi thnh phn kinh t ny trong nhiu hot ng kinh t bao gm hot ng cung ng vn. Nhn thc ny cng c ngha i vi ng bng Sng Cu Long (BSCL) ni m s lng DNTN chim a s trong tng s doanh nghip v phn ng gp ca n i vi nn kinh t khu vc l rt ln. Gn y DNTN tr thnh i tng khch hng bnh ng hn trc y. Mc d c nhng thay i mi ny, vn cn tn ti nhng ro cn khin cho s gp nhau gia ngi i vay (l cc DNTN) v ngi cho vay (l cc NHTM) cn hn ch. Vic nh gi nhng yu t nh hng n th trng tn dng DNTN l rt cn thit tm kim nhng bin php khai thng ngun vn ny cho khu vc kinh t t nhn. Trong phm vi bi vit ny, tc gi tin hnh phn tch tnh hnh cung ng tn dng ngn hng ca h thng NHTM, nhu cu tn dng v cc yu t nh hng n kh nng tip cn tn dng ngn hng ca cc DNTN. Nghin cu c tin hnh ti TP. Cn Th ni c s lng cc NHTM/chi nhnh NHTM nhiu th ba trong c nc sau H Ni v Thnh ph H Ch Minh. C ba i tng iu tra l: (1) cc NHTM, (2) cc DNTN ang vay vn v c h s tn dng ti cc NHTM, v (3) cc DNTN ang hot ng ti TP. Cn Th. Trong tng s 61 NHTM/chi nhnh NHTM, c 16 NHTM/chi nhnh NHTM c chn tin hnh phng vn. Trong s 16 NHTM/chi nhnh NHTM ng tham gia kho st, c 13 NHTM/chi nhnh NHTM ng cung cp thng tin h s vay vn ca cc DNTN l khch hng ca h (nhng c che du tn doanh nghip). T 13 NHTM c chn ny, 121 b h s vay vn ca cc khch hng l DNTN c chn ra nghin cu 2. Loi thng tin lin quan n hai i tng iu tra ny c s dng tm hiu v tnh hnh cung ng tn dng ca NHTM cho cc DNTN. Ngoi ra, nh gi tnh hnh tip cn tn dng ngn hng ca cc DNTN, mt mu iu tra bao gm 53 DNTN c chn ngu nhin v s dng trong ti. TNG QUAN TI LIU Riedel v ctv (1997) cho rng tr ngi ln nht i vi s pht trin ca DNTN BSCL l tn dng, tn dng, v tn dng. Nghin cu cho thy chnh nhng quy nh khng r rng v quyn s hu, hn ch trong hot ng xut nhp khu, h thng thu
1 2

Khoa Kinh t-Qun tr kinh doanh, Trng i hc Cn Th Kt qu iu tra cho thy c n 17,5% doanh nghip nhn c s tin vay t hn s tin ngh vay. iu ny c gii thch nh l s tin thc t ngn hng cho vay l mc cung tn dng ca ngn hng..

bt hp l v t quan liu gy ra rt nhiu kh khn cho hot ng kinh doanh v lm tng chi ph kinh doanh ca cc DNTN. Tuy nhin, nhng kh khn ny u c xp sau vn kh tip cn tn dng ngn hng. Taussig v ctv (2003) trnh by mt bc tranh tng quan v DNTN BSCL bao gm cc vn v mi trng hot ng, s dng lao ng, tip cn tn dng, ng gp GDP, ..v.v. Kt qu nghin cu cho thy rng ng gp ca khu vc kinh t t nhn vo gi tr GDP ca Vng cao hn khu vc kinh t quc doanh v ngy cng tng nhanh. Rand v ctv (2004) tin hnh phn tch nhng yu t nh hng n kh nng tip cn tn dng v nhn dng cc tnh cht ca tn dng nh hng n chi ph vn ca cc doanh nghip nh v va (DNVVN) Vit Nam. Nghin cu cho thy s tr gip tn dng ca Chnh ph trong giai on ban u thnh lp cng ty ng gp quan trng vo s tng trng ca DNVVN trong nhng nm 1990s. Tuy nhin, mc quan trng ca s h tr ny gim dn trong nhng nm tip theo. Khi v ctv (2007) tin hnh phn tch tng quan thc trng ca DNTN BSCL. Kt qu cho thy rng khu vc DNTN c tc tng kh nhanh v s lng, vn u t, kh nng thu ht lao ng, v gi tr u ra di tc ng ca cc chnh sch khuyn khch, u i cng vi s thng thong ca Lut Doanh nghip mi c ban hnh. Kt qu cng ch ra rng vn tip cn tn dng l mt trong nhng kh khn chnh i vi hot ng ca cc DNTN. Ho (2006) nu ln thc trng ca DNNVV v khng c ti sn th chp nn khng th tip cn vn vay ngn hng v b l cc c hi u t hiu qu. Nguyn nhn lm hn ch kh nng vay vn ca doanh nghip l s thiu thng tin t ngn hng, trong th tc kim tra v nh gi ti sn th chp vn cn phc tp v thng tin hng dn v th tc vay vn tn chp, trnh ca mt s nhn vin ngn hng cn hn ch dn ti vic hng dn lm th tc vay vn cn s si. Backe v ctv (2005) tin hnh phn tch s pht trin tn dng ca khu vc kinh t t nhn ca cc nh nc thuc khi Trung u v ng u trong giai on 1999-2004. Cc tc gi bn lun v nhng yu t quyt nh ca vic m rng tn dng, thm d nhng tc ng ca hot ng tn dng n s pht trin kinh t. Phn tch cho thy rng cho vay khu vc kinh t t nhn ang tng trng mt cch nng ng nhng khng phi tt c cc nc thnh vin EU. S pht trin tn dng cn c y mnh bi s n nh ca kinh t v m, s ci cch ton din v chnh sch t nhn ho trong lnh vc ti chnh v bi s khi u ca cc nh ch th trng v nhng ci cch ph hp. Hofmann (2001) phn tch cc nhn t quyt nh n hot ng tn dng ca cc ngn hng t nhn bng cch s dng m hnh VAR (Vector Autoregressive Model) cho 16 nc cng nghip ho k t nm 1980. Kt qu cho thy rng s pht trin trong di hn ca th trng tn dng khng th c gii thch bi nhng yu t cung tn dng. Tuy nhin, nu bin s thc ca gi tr ti sn c a vo m hnh, mi quan h thun gia tn dng v tng trng GDP v mi quan h nghch gia tn dng v t gi thc c xc xc lp. Cc mi quan h di hn ny c gii thch bi s nh hng ca c yu t cung v cu tn dng.

PHNG PHP NGHIN CU - i vi cung ng tn dng ca h thng NHTM : Cc bin s a vo m hnh cung tn dng c da trn l thuyt qun tr ti chnh: tiu chun 5C (Character, Capacity, Condition, Capital, Collateral), C th l, cc yu t nh hng n s tin/quy m cho vay ca ngn hng l: (1) mc tn nhim ca ngn hng, (2) ti sn th chp vay, v (3) cc yu t thuc v cng ty nh loi hnh cng ty, ngnh ngh kinh doanh, mc ch vay, kh nng thanh ton n vay, v cc yu t v quy m cng ty nh tng ti sn, tng vn ch s hu, v tng doanh thu. M hnh hi quy c dng nh sau: STCVi = a0 + a1LHCTi + a2NNKDi + a3TSTCi + a4MDVi+ a5KNTTi + a6MTNi + a7TTSANi + a8VCSHi + a9DTHUi + ei Trong : STCV: s tin thc t (triu ng) ngn hng cho doanh nghip vay LHCT: Loi hnh cng ty. Bin gi (1: cng ty t nhn; 0: loi hnh cng ty khc) NNKD: Ngnh ngh kinh doanh. Bin gi (1: lnh vc nng-lm- ng; 0: loi hnh kinh doanh khc) TSTC: Ti sn th chp. Bin gi (1: c th chp; 0: khng c th chp) MDV: Mc ch vay. Bin gi (1: B sung vn lu ng; 0: khc) KNTT: T s kh nng thanh ton (ln) MTN: Mc tn nhim ca ngn hng i vi cng ty (1: thp; 2: trung bnh; 3: cao) TTSAN: Tng ti sn ca cng ty (triu ng) VCSH: Tng vn ch s hu (triu ng) DTHU: Tng doanh thu/nm (triu ng) ai : cc h s c lng ei: sai s ca m hnh - i vi cu tn dng ca DNTN : S tin mun vay ph thuc vo cc yu t: (1) ngun vay, (2) thi i vi ri ro ca doanh nghip, (3) quy m cng ty, v (4) cc yu t ni ti ca cng ty nh cu trc vn, kt qu hot ng kinh doanh, ...v.v. M hnh hi quy c trnh by nh sau: NCVAYi = b0 + b1NGVAYi + b2RUIROi + b3QUYMOi + b4VLDONGi + b5VTCOi + b6ROEi + vi Trong : NCVAY: s tin (triu ng) cng ty mun vay NGVAY: Ngun vay. Bin gi (1: vay ngn hng; 0: vay khc) RUIRO: Thi i vi ri ro. Bin gi (1: khng chp nhn ri ro; 0: chp nhn ri ro)

QUYMO: Quy m cng ty. Bin gi (1: quy m nh-c gi tr tng ti sn di 10 t ng; 0: khc) VLDONG: T s gia vn lu ng v tng ti sn (%) VTCO: T s gia vn t c v tng ti sn (l%) ROE: Li nhun trn vn ch s hu (%) bi : cc h s c lng vi: sai s ca m hnh - i vi phn tch nh hng ca cc yu t n mc tn nhim ca ngn hng i vi cc DNTN: m hnh phn tch phn bit c trnh by nh sau: TNEM = 1TSNO+ 2NSTS + 3DTTS Trong : TNEM: Mc tn nhim (1: tn nhim cao; 0: tn nhim thp) TSNO: Tng s n vay ca cng ty (triu ng) NSTS: T s n vay trn tng ti sn (%) DTTS: T s tng doanh thu trn tng ti sn (%) i: cc h s phn bit - i vi phn tch nh hng ca cc yu t n nhu cu vn vay ca cc DNTN: m hnh phn tch phn bit c trnh by nh sau: YNVAY = 1NAMHD + 2VAYKC + 3LSVAY + 4TTSAN Trong : YNVAY: bin phn bit (1: mun vay; 0: khng mun vay) NAMHD: s nm cng ty hot ng VAYNC: cng ty c vay t nhng ngun khc (1: c vay; 0: khng vay) LSVAY: Li sut vay ngn hng (%) TTSAN: tng ti sn (triu ng) i: cc h s phn bit KT QU V THO LUN Th trng tn dng ngn hng cho doanh nghip t nhn D n tn dng ca h thng NHTM ti TP. Cn Th trong hai nm 2005-2006 cho thy rng c hai hnh thc tn dng ngn hn v trung, di hn c s thay i c cu d n theo chiu hng tng dn cc khon tn dng cho DNTN v kinh t c th, gim dn cc khon tn dng cho kinh t tp th v doanh nghip quc doanh. C th thy rng xu hng ca tn dng ngn hng l hng n khu vc kinh t t nhn cng nh DNTN. Bn cnh , cc ngn hng cng gia tng tng khi lng d n hng nm vi tng d n ngn hn chim t trng cao hn cc loi hnh cho vay cn li v tc tng ca d

n ngn hn cng cao hn tc tng d n khc. Bng 1 trnh by d n tn dng phn theo cc thnh phn kinh t ti h thng NHTM TP. Cn th qua hai nm 2005-2006. C cu tn dng ngn hn cao hn tn dng trung v di hn cng vi t trng cao ca vic cho vay i vi thnh phn kinh t t nhn cho thy xu hng ca cc ngn hng hin nay l cho cc DNTN vay ngn hn l ch yu. Bng 1: D n tn dng ca h thng NHTM phn theo loi hnh kinh t 2005 STT Loi hnh kinh t S tin (triu ng) 7.218.358 567.218 T trng (%) 100 7,86 2006 T S tin trng (triu ng) (%) 7.993.243 200.210 461.174 98.486 100 2,5 5,77 1,23 2006/2005 S tin (triu ng) Tc tng gim (%)

I 1 2 3 4 5 II 1 2 3 4 5 III

Tn dng ngn hn DNNN Trung ng DNNN a phng DNTN Kinh t tp th Kinh t c th Tn dng trung v di hn DNNN Trung ng DNNN a phng DNTN Kinh t tp th Kinh t c th Tng cng

774.885 10,73 -367.008 64,70 -520.324 53,01 1.081.118 32,76 -53.108 35,03 634.207 28,59 573.180 2,25

981.498 13,60 3.299.998 45,72 151.594 2,10 2.218.050 30,72 2.465.655 55.832 180.743 194.781 9.684.013 100 2,26 7,33 7,90

4.381.116 54,81 2.852.257 35,69 3.038.835 46.043 117.752 1.134 11.032.078 100 1,52 3,87 0,04

-9.789 17,53 -62.991 34,85 232.164 29,65 -193.647 99,42 607.443 48,55 1.348.065 13,92

783.096 31,76 1.251.203 50,75

1.015.260 33,41 1.858.646 61,16

(Ngun: NHNNVN chi nhnh Cn Th. 2007) Tnh cht mu iu tra Quy m doanh nghip. C hn 50% DNTN c quy m nh (di 5 t ng), 16% DNTN c quy m va (t 5 n 10 t ng), v 33% DNTN c quy m ln hn 10 t ng. Ngnh ngh kinh doanh. C 55% doanh nghip thuc ngnh thng mi, dch v, 25% thuc ngnh nng-lm-ng, v 20% thuc ngnh cng nghip, xy dng.

Thi gian vay vn. Nhiu doanh nghip vay ng thi nhiu khon vay vi thi hn vay khc nhau. C n 80% s doanh nghip c vay nhng khon vay c thi hn trn; 69% vay cc khon vay c thi hn vay l mt nm; v 20% vay cc khon vay c thi hn vay di mt nm. Mc ch vay vn. a s doanh nghip trong mu iu tra vay vn b sung vn lu ng (83%), v phn cn li (17%) l vay mua sm trang thit b, ti sn c nh, u t ti chnh, sa cha, nng cp thit b my mc...v.v. Tnh trng kh nng thanh ton. C n 99% cc hp ng cho vay c m bo bng kh nng thanh ton trung bnh v cao (h s kh nng thanh ton hin hnh ln hn 1), trong cc doanh nghip c kh nng thanh ton cao chim t l rt cao trong mu. iu ny c th cho thy rng vay c vn t ngn hng tiu ch kh nng thanh ton lun c ngn hng u tin xem xt. Mc tn nhim i vi ngi vay. C 65% doanh nghip vay vn c nh gi c mc tn nhim cao, 33% mc tn nhim trung bnh, v 2% mc tn nhim thp. Hnh thc m bo cho khon vay. C n 95% cc doanh nghip khi vay c yu cu m bo cc khon vay bng ti sn th chp, v 5% cc doanh nghip khi vay c cc khon vay c m bo bng tn chp. Tm li, mu iu tra t h s vay vn ngn hng c nhng c im sau y: Th nht, nhm khch hng vay t khu vc kinh t t nhn ch yu n t DNTN v cng ty TNHH. Th hai, phn ln doanh nghip vay vn ngn hng c quy m nh v va. Th ba, a s doanh nghip vay vn thuc nhm ngnh thng mi-dch v. Th t, cc khon vay a s c thi hn t mt nm tr ln. Th nm, a s cc doanh nghip vay vn b sung vn lu ng. Th su, vay c cc khon vay ngn hng, a s doanh nghip u c tnh trng kh nng thanh ton tt. Cui cng, ngn hng hu nh ch quyt nh cho vay i vi cc doanh nghip c ti sn th chp v to c s tn nhim vi NH.

Tnh hnh cung ng tn dng ngn hng xt mt khon vay, cc ngn hng thng s dng nhiu tiu ch khc nhau nh gi v quyt nh nn cho vay hay khng v khon c vay l bao nhiu. Cc tiu ch nh gi thng a dng v kt qu iu tra c trnh by Bng 2. C hai nhm tiu ch: (1) lin quan n t s ti chnh/tnh hnh ti chnh ca doanh nghip vay vn, v (2) cc tiu ch ngoi cc thng tin ti chnh. i vi nhm tiu ch ti chnh, phn ln cc ngn hng quan tm n cc tiu ch kh nng thanh ton, cu trc vn, kh nng tng trng ca doanh thu, kh nng to dng tin, quy m ti sn, v c t l tng trng ca vn t c cng nh t sut li nhun. iu ng ngc nhin l ch tiu vng quy vn lu ng khng c cc ngn hng ch n mc d trong c cu cho vay, cho vay ngn hn hu nh c cung cp cho tt c cc doanh nghip i vay b sung vn lu

ng. i vi nhm tiu ch phi ti chnh, cc tiu ch v mc tn nhim ca ngn hng dnh cho doanh nghip, ti sn th chp ca ngi vay, mc ch vay vn ca doanh nghip, mc ln nh ca khon tin vay, v loi hnh doanh nghip l nhng tiu ch c rt nhiu ngn hng quan tm, nh gi. Mt s ngn hng cng quan tm n tiu ch lnh vc kinh doanh hay ngnh ngh kinh doanh ca ngi vay lm cn c xt chn khon cho vay. Cc tiu ch v kh nng qun tr ca doanh nghip, tnh kh thi ca phng n vay, th trng u ra sn phm, v c bit l s minh bch trong hch ton k ton ca doanh nghip li khng c nhiu ngn hng quan tm. Bng 2: Cc tiu ch v mc quan trng c ngn hng s dng nh gi khch hng vay vn S ngn hng Ch tiu Tng s I. Nhm ch tiu ti chnh - Nhm t s thanh ton - Nhm t s n v vn t c - T l tng trng doanh thu - Kh nng to dng tin mt ca khch hng - Quy m ca doanh nghip tnh theo tng ti sn - T l tng trng ca vn ch s hu - T sut li nhun - Vng quay vn lu ng II. Nhm ch tiu phi ti chnh - Mc tn nhim ca ngn hng i vi khch hng - Ti sn th chp - Mc ch vay vn - Mc ca s tin vay - Loi hnh doanh nghip - Ngnh ngh kinh doanh 16 16 16 15 13 4 100 100 100 94 81 25 81,3 37,5 68,8 26,7 0 0 18,8 31,3 25,0 40,0 38,5 75,0 0 31,3 6,3 33,3 61,5 25,0 16 15 15 15 13 12 10 1 100 94 94 94 81 75 63 6,3 62,5 46,7 46,7 46,7 7,7 16,7 70,0 0 18,8 26,7 46,7 46,7 53,8 66,7 20,0 100,0 18,8 26,7 6,7 6,7 38,5 16,7 10,0 0 % Cao Mc quan trng Trung bnh Thp

- Kh nng qun tr ca doanh nghip - Tnh kh thi ca phng n vay - Th trng u ra sn phm - S minh bch trong hch ton k ton (Ngun: S liu iu tra. 2007)

3 2 2 1

18,8 12,5 12,5 6,3

33,3 100 0 0

66,7 0 50,0 100,0

0 0 50,0 0

Nhiu ngn hng khng xem trng nhng tiu ch lin quan n kh nng qun l ni b ca doanh nghip, th d nh l s minh bch ca hch ton k ton cng ty, kh nng qun l vng quay ti sn lu ng, cc phng n kinh doanh ca khon vay, v kh nng bn hng, hay th trng u ra sn phm. y cng l nhng yu t quan trng nh hng n kh nng thc hin cc cam kt tn dng ca ngi i vay. Trong vic nh gi mc quan trng ca cc tiu ch nh gi cho vay, cc ngn hng cng c nhng nh gi khc nhau. i vi nhm tiu ch ti chnh, phn ln cc ngn hng nh gi mc quan trng cao i vi cc tiu ch kh nng thanh ton, cu trc vn thng qua t s n v vn, t l tng trng doanh thu, kh nng to dng tin, v t sut li nhun. Trong khi , rt nhiu ngn hng ch nh gi mc quan trng trung bnh hay rt thp i vi hai tiu ch quy m ti sn v t l tng trng ca vn ch s hu. i vi nhm tiu ch phi ti chnh, a s ngn hng nh gi tiu ch mc tn nhim ca ngn hng i vi ngi vay v mc ch vay vn mc quan trng cao. c bit, i vi cc ngn hng s dng tiu ch tnh kh thi ca phng n vay th tt c h u t tiu ch ny mc quan trng cao.Cc tiu ch mc s tin vay, ngnh ngh kinh doanh, v kh nng qun tr ca doanh nghip c nhiu ngn hng nh gi mc quan trng trung bnh. c bit, tiu ch loi hnh doanh nghip c a s ngn hng nh gi mc quan trng thp. y l kt qu ng quan tm trong nghin cu ny. Kt qu ny cho thy rng vic phn bit i x cho vay i vi cc loi hnh doanh nghip khc nhau ang b thu hp li. Thng tin ny l tn hiu quan trng cho i tng vay l cc DNTN. iu ny cho php tin on rng nu xu hng ny tip tc xy ra th ngun cung vn cho khu vc DNTN s c m rng trong tng lai. C hi s dng vn vay ngn hng s c bnh ng hn v kh nng vay vn ca h s ph thuc vo mc tho mn cc tiu ch vay vn ca ngn hng hn l chnh v h l DNTN. Kt qu cho thy rng tiu ch mc tn nhim c tt c ngn hng trong mu iu tra chn nh l tiu ch quan trng trong quyt nh xt chn khon cho vay. C n 82% ngn hng nh gi tiu ch ny c tm quan trng rt ln. phn tch nhng yu t thuc v doanh nghip nh hng n vic nh gi ca ngn hng v mc tn nhim i vi doanh nghip i vay, phn tch phn bit c s dng (Bng 3). Kt qu ch ra rng (1) t s n vay trn tng ti sn, (2) t s tng doanh thu trn tng ti sn, v (3) tng s n vay trn bng cn i k ton ln lt l nhng yu t nh hng quan trng i vi mc tn nhim nhn c t ngn hng. Ni cch khc, ch tiu tng s n vay trn bng cn i k ton c nh gi t quan trng hn so vi cc ch tiu v t s ti chnh l t s n v t s tng doanh thu trn tng ti sn.

Bng 3: Kt qu phn tch phn bit ca mc tn nhim ca ngn hng (Bin phn bit: TNEM) Cc yu t nh hng (bin c lp) Tng s n vay ca cng ty (TSNO) T s n vay trn tng ti sn (NSTS) T s tng doanh thu trn tng ti sn (DTTS) WilksLambda = 0,806 Chi-square = 134,5 (p-value = 0,001) *, **, tng ng cc m c ngha 1% v 5% Cc yu t nh hng n cung ng tn dng ca ngn hng. phn tch cc yu t nh hng n s tin c xt vay, phn tch hi quy c s dng v kt qu c trnh by trong Bng 4. Trong m hnh ny, cc yu t: (1) loi hnh doanh nghip, (2) ngnh ngh kinh doanh, (3) kh nng thanh ton, (4) mc tn nhim ca ngn hng i vi doanh nghip, v (5) tng vn ch s hu l nhng yu t nh hng n s tin vay c ca doanh nghip. Trong khi , hai yu t ti sn th chp v mc ch vay li khng c c s thng k kt lun nh hng ca chng n s tin vay c. Kt qu cho thy rng cc cng ty t nhn thng c xt vay t hn so vi cc doanh nghip khc. Cc DNTN thuc lnh vc nng-lm ng thng c xt vay nhiu hn so vi cc doanh nghip hot ng trong nhng lnh vc kinh doanh khc. Doanh nghip c t s kh nng thanh ton cng cao th c xt vay nhiu hn. Nu mc tn nhim ca ngn hng tng ln th s tin c xt vay s nhiu hn. Tng vn t c cng nhiu th doanh nghip c th c xt vay nhiu hn. Cui cng, mc d hai yu t tng ti sn v tng doanh thu c nh hng c ngha thng k ln s tin c xt vay, nhng mc nh hng ca chng hu nh rt nh v khng ng k. Bng 4: Kt qu hi quy ca m hnh cung ng tn dng (Bin ph thuc: STCV) Bin Hng s Loi hnh cng ty (LHCT) Ngnh ngh kinh doanh (NNKD) Ti sn th chp (TSTC) Mc ch vay (MDV) Kh nng thanh ton (KNTT) Mc tn nhim (MTN) Tng ti sn (TTSAN) H s c lng 1.947ns -4.177** 2.098*** 873ns 309ns 1.048*** 1.494*** 0.039* H s phn bit -0,240*** -0,451* 0,440**

Vn ch s hu (VCSH) 0.777* Doanh thu (DTHU) 0.009*** 2 R = 0,745 Gi tr kim nh F = 16,966 *, **, *** tng ng cc m c ngha 1%, 5%, v 10%; ns khng c ngha thng k

Nhu cu tn dng ca doanh nghip t nhn Trong tng s 54 doanh nghip c kho st, c 9 doanh nghip (15%) khng c vay vn ngn hng, trong c 1 doanh nghip khng c nhu cu vay vn v 45 doanh nghip c vay vn ngn hng trong nm 2006. Trong s 45 doanh nghip c vay vn ngn hng, c 41% s doanh nghip s dng vn vay b sung vn lu ng v 59% s doanh nghip s dng vn vay cho c hai mc ch l b sung vn lu ng v ng thi u t vo ti sn di hn. Trong s cc doanh nghip khng vay vn ngn hng, c 25% doanh nghip khng th tip cn c ngun vn ny; v 37,5% cho rng chi ph vay cao nn khng mun vay. Mt s doanh nghip cho rng s tin c xt vay khng nhiu so vi nhu cu vay nn quyt nh khng vay, v mt s cho rng thi gian tr n vay ngn qu nn khng dm vay. Trong s cc doanh nghip c vay vn ngn hng, c 50% doanh nghip cho rng ngn hng nh gi ti sn th chp qu thp lm cho s tin vay khng nhiu nh mong i. 69% s doanh nghip cho rng thi gian thm nh qu lu gy kh khn cho doanh nghip. V 31% s doanh nghip cho rng th tc cho vay qu rm r, nhiu kh. Nhn chung, mc hi lng v cng tc cho vay ca ngn hng l khng cao. Ch c 27% s doanh nghip c vay vn t ra hi lng i vi quy trnh cho vay ca ngn hng. Kt qu ca Bng 5 cho thy rng cc yu t ln lt c mc nh hng t nhiu n t i vi nhu cu vay vn ngn hng l (1) tng ti sn ca doanh nghip, (2) li vay ngn hng, v (3) doanh nghip c kh nng vay hay b sung vn t nhng ngun vn khc ngoi tn dng ngn hng. Khi tng ti sn tng ln doanh nghip c xu hng c nhu cu vay tng thm. Khi li sut ngn hng tng, cng ty c xu hng gim nhu cu vay. V khi doanh nghip c th huy ng c t nhng ngun vn khc th nhu cu vay vn c xu hng gim. Trong khi , s nm hot ng ca doanh nghip dng nh khng l yu t quan trng nh hng n nhu cu vay vn ca doanh nghip. Bng 5: Kt qu phn tch phn bit ca nhu cu vay vn ngn hng (Bin phn bit: YNVAY) Cc yu t nh hng (bin c lp) S nm cng ty hot ng (NAMHD) Cng ty c vay t nhng ngun khc (VAYNC) Li sut vay ngn hng (LSVAY) Tng ti sn (TTSAN) H s phn bit -0,074ns -0,216* -0,317* 1,085**

WilksLambda = 0,018 Chi-square = 134,5 (p-value = 0,000) *, **, tng ng cc mc ngha 1% v 5%, ; ns khng c ngha thng k phn tch cc yu t thuc v doanh nghip nh hng n s tin cn vay, phn tch hi quy c s dng v kt qu c trnh by trong Bng 6. Kt qu cho thy rng cc yu t: (1) quy m doanh nghip, (2) t s gia vn lu ng v tng ti sn, v (3) t s gia vn t c v tng ti sn c nh hng n mc ca s tin cn vay cc mc ngha t 1% n 10%. Khi quy m cng ty tng th s tin cn vay c th tng thm. Khi t s gia vn lu ng v tng ti sn tng th s tin cn vay c th tng thm. V khi t s gia vn t c v tng ti sn tng th s tin cn vay c th gim i. Ngoi ra, m hnh cng cho thy rng s tin doanh nghip mun vay t ngn hng thp hn rt nhiu so vi s tin doanh nghip mun vay t cc ngun khc. Kt qu ny cho thy rng bn cnh ngun cung tn dng t ngn hng, cc ngun cung cp vn ngoi h thng ngn hng cng l knh cung ng vn quan trng i vi cc doanh nghip. Trong khi , cc yu t nh t l sinh li trn vn t c (ROE) v thi i vi ri ro ca doanh nghip li c th l nhng yu t khng quan trng c nh hng n s chn la cng nh s tin vay ca doanh nghip. Bng 6: Kt qu hi quy ca m hnh nhu cu tn dng (Bin ph thuc: NCVAY) Bin s Hng s Ngun vay n (NGVAY) Thi i vi ri ro (RUIRO) Quy m cng ty (QUYMO) T s gia vn lu ng v tng ti sn (VLDONG) T s gia vn t c v tng ti sn (VTCO) Li nhun trn vn ch s hu (ROE) R2 = 0,738 Gi tr kim nh F = 10,977 *, **, *** tng ng cc mc ngha 1%, 5%, v 10%; ns khng c ngha thng k KT LUN D n tn dng ca h thng NHTM ti TP. Cn Th trong hai nm 2005-2006 cho thy rng c hai hnh thc tn dng ngn hn v trung, di hn c s thay i c cu d n theo chiu hng tng dn cc khon tn dng cho DNTN v kinh t c th. iu ny cho thy rng xu hng ca tn dng ngn hng l hng n khu vc kinh t t H s c lng -1.310ns -1.496* -168ns 130** 68* -8*** 29ns

nhn cng nh DNTN. T nm 2004, s lng cc DNTN vay vn ca cc ngn hng tng ln ng k. Trong c cu tn dng, nhiu ngn hng tp trung u t cho khch hng thuc khu vc kinh t t nhn vi t l ngang cc doanh nghip quc doanh. a ngun vn ln hn cho cc DNTN, nhiu ngn hng xy dng chin lc cho vay vn ring dnh cho cc i tng ny nh xy dng c ch u i hn so vi vay bnh thng, th tc m bo tin vay linh hot, cho php doanh nghip c th chp ti sn hnh thnh t vn vay. Kt qu nghin cu cho thy rng cc ngn hng cng sn lng cung cp tn dng cho cc DNTN. Vic cho vay ca ngn hng khng ph thuc nhiu vo hnh thc doanh nghip thuc loi hnh no m ph thuc vo tiu ch nh gi tn dng ca ngn hng v tnh cht ca khon vay ca doanh nghip. Tuy nhin, nhiu ngn hng khng xem trng nhng tiu ch lin quan n kh nng qun l ni b ca doanh nghip nh l s minh bch ca hch ton k ton cng ty, kh nng qun l vng quay ti sn lu ng, cc phng n kinh doanh ca khon vay, v kh nng bn hng, hay th trng u ra sn phm mc d y l nhng yu t quan trng nh hng n kh nng thc hin cc cam kt tn dng ca doanh nghip. Trong nhm cc tiu ch nh gi tnh trng ti chnh, cc ngn hng nh gi mc quan trng cao i vi cc tiu ch kh nng thanh ton, cu trc vn thng qua t s n v vn, t l tng trng doanh thu, kh nng to dng tin, v t sut li nhun. Trong khi , rt nhiu ngn hng ch nh gi mc quan trng trung bnh hay rt thp i vi hai tiu ch quy m ti sn v t l tng trng ca vn ch s hu. i vi nhm tiu ch phi ti chnh, a s ngn hng nh gi tiu ch mc tn nhim ca ngn hng i vi ngi vay v mc ch vay vn mc quan trng cao. Cc tiu ch mc s tin vay, ngnh ngh kinh doanh, v kh nng qun tr ca doanh nghip c nhiu ngn hng nh gi mc quan trng trung bnh. c bit, tiu ch loi hnh doanh nghip c a s ngn hng nh gi mc quan trng thp. Kt qu ny phn nh rng vic phn bit i x cho vay i vi cc loi hnh doanh nghip khc nhau ang b thu hp li. Thng tin ny l tn hiu quan trng cho i tng vay l cc DNTN. iu ny cho php tin on rng nu xu hng ny tip tc xy ra th ngun cung vn cho khu vc DNTN s c m rng trong tng lai. C hi s dng vn vay ngn hng s c bnh ng hn v kh nng vay vn ca h s ph thuc vo mc tho mn cc tiu ch vay vn ca ngn hng hn l chnh v h l DNTN. Kt qu cng cho thy rng tiu ch mc tn nhim c cc ngn hng trong mu iu tra chn nh l tiu ch quan trng trong quyt nh xt chn khon cho vay. Cc ch tiu v t s n vay trn tng ti sn, t s tng doanh thu trn tng ti sn, v tng s n vay trn bng cn i k ton l nhng yu t nh hng quan trng i vi mc tn nhim nhn c t ngn hng. Kt qu kho st cho thy mc p ng cc khon vay t 82%. Phn tch hi huy ch ra rng cc yu t loi hnh doanh nghip, ngnh ngh kinh doanh, kh nng thanh ton, mc tn nhim ca ngn hng i vi doanh nghip, v tng vn ch s hu l nhng yu t nh hng n s tin vay c ca doanh nghip. Kt qu cng cho thy rng cc cng ty t nhn thng c xt vay t hn so vi cc doanh nghip khc; cc DNTN thuc lnh vc nng-lm ng thng c xt vay nhiu hn so vi cc doanh nghip hot ng trong nhng lnh vc kinh doanh khc; cc doanh nghip c t s kh nng thanh ton cng cao th c xt vay nhiu hn; khi mc tn nhim ca ngn hng tng ln th s tin c xt vay s nhiu hn; v khi tng vn t c cng nhiu th doanh nghip c th c xt vay nhiu hn.

Hu ht cc DNTN trong mu iu tra u c vay v mun vay vn ngn hng. C 41% s doanh nghip s dng vn vay b sung vn lu ng v 59% s doanh nghip s dng vn vay cho c hai mc ch l b sung vn lu ng v ng thi u t vo ti sn di hn. iu ny cho thy ngun vn tn dng ngn hng ng gp c vo qu trnh u t di hn ca khu vc DNTN. Nu xu hng ny din ra tip tc chng ta c th k vng rng khu vc kinh t t nhn ni chung s gp nhiu thun li trn con ng pht trin ca mnh v h thng NHTM s ng gp nhiu vo s pht trin ny. Kt qu phn tch cho thy rng cc yu t tng ti sn ca doanh nghip, li vay ngn hng, v kh nng tip cn vi cc ngun vn khc ngoi tn dng ngn hng l c nh hng n nhu cu vay vn ngn hng. Khi tng ti sn tng ln doanh nghip c xu hng c nhu cu vay tng thm. Khi li sut ngn hng tng, cng ty c xu hng gim nhu cu vay. V khi doanh nghip c th huy ng c t nhng ngun vn khc th nhu cu vay vn c xu hng gim. Phn tch hi quy cho thy rng cc yu t quy m doanh nghip, t s gia vn lu ng v tng ti sn, v t s gia vn t c v tng ti sn c nh hng n mc ca s tin cn vay. Ngoi ra, m hnh cng cho thy rng s tin doanh nghip mun vay t ngn hng thp hn rt nhiu so vi s tin doanh nghip mun vay t cc ngun khc. Kt qu ny cho thy rng bn cnh ngun cung tn dng t ngn hng, cc ngun cung cp vn ngoi h thng ngn hng cng l knh cung ng vn quan trng i vi cc doanh nghip. Trong khi , cc yu t nh t l sinh li trn vn t c (ROE) v thi i vi ri ro ca doanh nghip li c th l nhng yu t khng quan trng c nh hng n s chn la cng nh s tin vay ca doanh nghip. T kt qu nghin cu ny, tc gi xut mt s kin ngh lin quan n cc i tng nghin cu trn; l: i vi cc nh hoch nh chnh sch: Tip tc pht trin Trung tm tn dng nh nc h tr v thng tin khch hng cho cc NHTM. iu ny nn lm v cc thng tin v doanh nghip l quan trng i vi ngn hng cho vay. Hin nay, Cng ty ti chnh quc t (IFC) ang hp tc vi Ngn hng nh nc Vit Nam v h thng NHTM xy dng mt Trung tm thng tin tn dng t nhn, ng thi hp tc vi B T php trong vic thit lp mt h thng ng k giao dch bo m trn nn cng ngh mng nhm gip cc NHTM hot ng cho vay tt hn v t ph thuc hn vo ti sn th chp vay. Thc y nhanh vic trin khai hot ng cc qu bo him tn dng cho cc DNTN. i vi cc NHTM: Cc NHTM cn xy dng h thng cc tiu ch nh gi v xy dng h thng nh gi mc tn nhim i vi cc khon vay tim nng. c bit, i vi cc khon tn dng dnh cho DNTN, cc h thng nh gi ny cn c dng chung thng nht v khng nn c s phn bit vi cc thnh phn doanh nghip vay vn khc. i mi cc tiu ch cho vay vn. Bn cnh cc tiu ch v sc kho ti chnh ca doanh nghip vay vn, cc tiu ch v tnh hnh qun tr doanh nghip v tnh kh thi ca phng n vay nn c xem mc quan trng hn. Ni cch khc, tnh hiu qu ca vic s dng vn vay nn c a ln hng u. Rt ngn thi gian thm nh tn dng v n gin ho th tc vay vn cho ngi vay. Ni cch khc, cc ngn hng cn tip tc hon thin quy trnh vay vn ca mnh

 c sc hp dn khch hng vay vn tim nng. i vi cc DNTN: Da vo cc thng tin v h thng tiu ch nh gi v mc tn nhim cc khon vay ca ngn hng t ra t doanh nghip ra cho mnh c s v mc vay vn v cc tiu ch tho mn yu cu ca ngn hng nhm tng kh nng tip cn ngun vn tn dng ngn hng.

TI LIU THAM KHO Backe P., and T. Zumar (2005): Developments in Credit to the Private Sector in Central and Eastern European Member States: Emerging from Financial Repression, in Focus on Transition, ed. by Osterreichische Nationalbank, Vienna. Internet Address: http://oenb.at/en/img/feei_2005_2_special_focus_2_tcm16-33488.pdf Hofmann B. 2001. The Determinants of Private Sector Credit in Industrialised Countries: Do Property Prices Matter? BIS Working Paper No. 108 Internet Address: http://ssrn.com/abstract=847404 Khoi P.D, T.D. Loc, and V.T. Danh. 2007. An Overview of Development of Private Enterprise economy in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam. Unpublished Report. NPT project. Cantho University Riedel J. and T.S. Chuong. 1997. The Emerging Private Sector and the Industrializatgion of Vietnam. IFC MPDF Discussion Paper, No. 1. Tausig M., S. Falatik, L.T.D. Hai, P.D. Khoi. 2003. Private Enterprises in the Mekong Delta: A Baseline Study of One of Vietnams Most Dynamic Regions for Rural Entrepreneurship", GTZ report. Internet Address: http://www.sme.com.vn/Upload/Documents/Domestic%20Private%20Enterprises%20in %20the%20Mekong%20Delta.pdf

ABSTRACT In recent years, private enterprises have easily accessed the bank loans. However, there still were some barriers to prevent private enterprises in seeking low-interest banking loans. This study aimed to evaluate the bank credit supply and credit demand situations and factors affecting to the accessability of bank loans by private enterprises as well in Cantho City. Reseults showed that in order to offer the loan, commercial banks based on data on private enterprises financial status rather than operating management, credit purpose, and the business alternative of the loan. Data on financial status were highly evaluated by the banks while type of enterprise was not importantly evaluated. This is a positive change for credit business of the commercial bank system. Results of the discriminant analysis showed that debt over total assets ratio, revenue over total assets ratio, and total debt were factors affecting to the creditability of the bank to a certain loan. In addition, regression analysis showed that type of enterprise, type of business, payment ability, total equities, and the degree of creditability were factors affecting to the amount

of bank loans. Propritorship got the loans less than other types of enterprises. Companies that have business in the fields of agriculture, forestry, and fishery got more bank loans than other companies. Companies that have high liability ratio, high creditability, and big total equities can get more bank loans. For credit demand, results showed that most of private enterprises need the bank loans. Few of enterprises felt difficulties in accessing the bank loans. In average, companies in the survey can get 82% of amount of money that they need. Discriminant analysis showed that total assets, bank interest, and ability of accessing non-bank loans were factors affecting to the bank credit demand of the private enterprises. In addition, regression analysis showed that total assets, working capital over total assets ratio, and equity-to-total assets ratio were factors affecting to the amount of loans that companies need. total assets and working capital over total assets ratio have a positive relationship to the amount of loans needed. Meanwhile, equity-to-total assets ratio has a negative relationship to the amount of loans needed. Regression analysis also showed that the amount of loans that companies want to have from the banks was lower than the amount of loans that companies want to have from non-bank sources.