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Project Report

On

Impact of Recession in India

Submitted to:
Submitted by:
Mrs. Kawaljeet Kaur
Harsimranjeet Kaur
Regd: 625241502

In the partial fulfillment of the


requirement for the BBA degree course of
the Swami Satyanand College of
Management & Technology.

INDEX

Introduction to recession

Definition of recession

Attributes of recession

Causes & Effects of recession

Stock Market & Recession

Recession & Politics

History of Recession

Current crisis in the US

Impact of recession in India

Consequences of US Recession

Conclusion

Bibliography
Acknowledgement

If words are considered to be sign of gratitude then


let these words convey the very same.

I am highly indebted to lecturer Miss. Shveta, who


has provide me with the necessary information and
also for the support and her valuable suggestions
and comments on bringing out this report in the
best way possible.

I feel great pleasure to cordial thanks to all faculty


members of management department of SSCMT who
sincerely supported me with the valuable insights
into the completion of this project and I am thankful
to that power that always inspire me to take right
step in the journey of success in my life.

Harsimranjeet Kaur
RECESSION

RECESSIONS ARE the result of reduction in the demand of products in


the global market. Recession can also be associated with falling prices
known as deflation due to lack of demand of products. Again, it could be
the result of inflation or a combination of increasing prices and stagnant
economic growth in the west.

Recession in the West, especially the United States, is a very bad news for
our country. Our companies in India have most outsourcing deals from the
US. Even our exports to US have increased over the years. Exports for
January have declined by 22 per cent. There is a decline in the
employment market due to the recession in the West. There has been a
significant drop in the new hiring which is a cause of great concern for us.
Some companies have laid off their employees and there have been cut in
promotions, compensation and perks of the employees. Companies in the
private sector and government sector are hesitant to take up new projects.
And they are working on existing projects only. Projections indicate that
up to one crore persons could lose their jobs in the correct fiscal ending
March. The one crore figure has been compiled by Federation of Indian
Export Organizations (FIEO), which says that it has carried out an
intensive survey. The textile, garment and handicraft industry are worse
affected. Together, they are going to lose four million jobs by April 2009,
according to the FIEO survey. There has also been a decline in the tourist
inflow lately. The real estate has also a problem of tight liquidity
situations, where the developers are finding it hard to raise finances.

IT industries, financial sectors, real estate owners, car industry,


investment banking and other industries as well are confronting heavy
loss due to the fall down of global economy. Federation of Indian
chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) found that faced with the
global recession, inventories industries like garment, gems, textiles,
chemicals and jewellery had cut production by 10 per cent to 50 per cent.

Definition of recession

Recession is not to be confused with depression. Recession means a slow


down or slump or temporary collapse of a business activity. In its early
stage it can be controlled in a methodical manner. Experience helps to
avert total collapse. Unchecked, it leads to severe depression. Depression
is a dead end. It is time to close shop completely. It is a total state of
irrevocable economic failure. When a country is doing well all round its
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is on the rise.

Overall economy is bullish; it is not only the stock exchanges that tell
riches to rags stories but even small businesses. It all adds to the national
exchequer. An economist is likely to give a detailed, comprehensive
definition of recession. But for the layman who has been affected knows it
only one way-when he loses his job and has no money to pay his credit
and loans. Recession is when the consumer faces foreclosure and the
banker comes knocking for his pound (or dollar) of flesh. Many
companies and whole countries go bankrupt for want of liquid funds and
cash flow for even daily requirements.
If you look at it from the point of view of a businessman, recession is a
transitory phase. The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National
Bureau of Economic Research has another definition. It profiles the
businesses that have peaked with their activity in one season and it falls
naturally in the next season. It regains its original position with new
products or sales and continues to expand. This revival makes the
recession a mild phase that large companies tolerate. As the fiscal position
rises, there is no reason to worry. Recession can last up to a year. When it
happens year after year then it is serious.

Are we facing a recession or not? Yes, for the simple reason that not only
our neighbors but our friends are unemployed. There is less of business
talk and more billing worries. Transitory recessions are good for the
economy, as it tends to stabilize the prices. It allows run away bullish
companies to slow down and take stock. There is a saying, ‘when it’s
tough the tough get going’. The weaker companies will not survive the
brief recession also. Stronger companies will pull through its resources.
So when is it time to worry? When you are facing a foreclosure, when the
chips are down and out and creditors file cases for recovery.

Firms face closures when they go through recession and are not able to
recover from losses. If, at this time, they are not able to sustain their
prices and stocks then there is more trouble. Even when the recession
period gets over, they will not be able to do well. If a business survives a
recession period they should be able to survive a depression. But how
many recession proof businesses are there? Who will eventually survive
the recession?

1. Those that have been able to save their funds.


2. Those who have not invested in fly-by-night companies.
3. Those who remain clam till the storm passes.
4. Those that take stock immediately and decide to reinvest in a recession
proof business.
Identifying

In a 1975 New York Times article, economic statistician Julius Shiskin


suggested several rules of thumb to identify a recession; these included
the rule of 'two successive quarterly declines in GDP. Over time, the other
rules have been largely forgotten, and a recession is now often identified
as the reduction of a country's GDP (or negative real economic growth)
for at least two quarters. Some economists prefer a more robust definition
of a 1.5% rise in unemployment within 12 months.
In the United States the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National
Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is generally seen as the authority
for dating US recessions. The NBER defines an economic recession as: "a
significant decline in [the] economic activity spread across the country,
lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP growth, real
personal income, employment (non-farm payrolls), industrial production,
and wholesale-retail sales." Almost universally, academic economists,
policy makers, and businesses defer to the determination by the NBER for
the precise dating of a recession's onset and end.
Attributes
A recession has many attributes that can occur simultaneously and can
include declines in coincident measures of activity such as employment,
investment, and corporate profits.

A severe (GDP down by 10%) or prolonged (three or four years) recession


is referred to as an economic depression, although some argue that their
causes and cures can be different.

Causes of recessions

• Currency crisis
• Energy crisis
• War
• Under consumption
• Overproduction
• Financial crisis
• Price of Fuels

Effects of recessions

• Bankruptcies
• Credit crunches
• Deflation (or disinflation)
• Foreclosures
• Unemployment

Stock market and recessions

Some recessions have been anticipated by stock market declines. In


Stocks for the Long Run, Siegel mentions that since 1948, ten recessions
were preceded by a stock market decline, by a lead time of 0 to 13 months
(average 5.7 months), while ten stock market declines of greater than 10%
in the DJIA were not followed by a recession.

The real-estate market also usually weakens before a recession. However


real-estate declines can last much longer than recessions.

Since the business cycle is very hard to predict, Siegel argues that it is not
possible to take advantage of economic cycles for timing investments.
Even the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) takes a few
months to determine if a peak or trough has occurred in the US.

During an economic decline, high yield stocks such as fast moving


consumer goods, pharmaceuticals, and tobacco tend to hold up better.
However when the economy starts to recover and the bottom of the
market has passed (sometimes identified on charts as a MACD), growth
stocks tend to recover faster. There is significant disagreement about how
health care and utilities tend to recover. Diversifying one's portfolio into
international stocks may provide some safety; however, economies that
are closely correlated with that of the U.S. may also be affected by a
recession in the U.S.

There is a view termed the halfway rule according to which investors start
discounting an economic recovery about halfway through a recession. In
the 16 U.S. recessions since 1919, the average length has been 13 months,
although the recent recessions have been shorter. Thus if the 2008
recession followed the average, the downturn in the stock market would
have bottomed around November 2008.

Recession and politics

Generally an administration gets credit or blame for the state of economy


during its time. This has caused disagreements about when a recession
actually started. In an economic cycle, a downturn can be considered a
consequence of an expansion reaching an unsustainable state, and is
corrected by a brief decline. Thus it is not easy to isolate the causes of
specific phases of the cycle.

The 1981 recession is thought to have been caused by the tight-money


policy adopted by Paul Volcker, chairman of the Federal Reserve Board,
before Ronald Reagan took office. Reagan supported that policy.
Economist Walter Heller, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
in the 1960s, said that "I call it a Reagan-Volcker-Carter recession. The
resulting taming of inflation did, however, set the stage for a robust
growth period during Reagan's administration.

It is generally assumed that government activity has some influence over


the presence or degree of a recession. Economists usually teach that to
some degree recession is unavoidable, and its causes are not well
understood. Consequently, modern government administrations attempt to
take steps, also not agreed upon, to soften a recession. They are often
unsuccessful, at least at preventing a recession, and it is difficult to
establish whether they actually made it less severe or longer lasting.

History of recessions

Global recessions
There is no commonly accepted definition of a global recession, IMF
regards periods when global growth is less than 3% to be global
recessions. The IMF estimates that global recessions seem to occur over a
cycle lasting between 8 and 10 years. During what the IMF terms the past
three global recessions of the last three decades, global per capita output
growth was zero or negative.

Economists at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) state that a global


recession would take a slowdown in global growth to three percent or
less. By this measure, three periods since 1985 qualify: 1990-1993, 1998
and 2001-2002.

According to economists, since 1854, the U.S. has encountered 32 cycles


of expansions and contractions, with an average of 17 months of
contraction and 38 months of expansion. However, since 1980 there have
been only eight periods of negative economic growth over one fiscal
quarter or more, and four periods considered recessions:

• January-July 1980 and July 1981-November 1982: 2 years total


• July 1990-March 1991: 8 months
• March 2001-November 2001: 8 months
• December 2007-current: 15 months as of March 2009

From 1991 to 2000, the U.S. experienced 37 quarters of economic


expansion, the longest period of expansion on record.

For the past three recessions, the NBER decision has approximately
conformed to the definition involving two consecutive quarters of decline.
However the 2001 recession did not involve two consecutive quarters of
decline, it was preceded by two quarters of alternating decline and weak
growth.

Current recession in some countries

Official economic data shows that a substantial number of nations are in


recession as of early 2009. The US entered a recession at the end of 2007,
and 2008 saw many other nations follow suit. United States

The United States housing market correction (a consequence of United


States housing bubbles) and sub prime mortgage crisis has significantly
contributed to a recession.

The 2008/2009 recession is seeing private consumption fall for the first
time in nearly 20 years. This indicates the depth and severity of the
current recession. With consumer confidence so low, recovery will take a
long time. Consumers in the U.S. have been hard hit by the current
recession, with the value of their houses dropping and their pension
savings decimated on the stock market. Not only have consumers watched
their wealth being eroded – they are now fearing for their jobs as
unemployment rises.
U.S. employers shed 63,000 jobs in February 2008, the most in five years.
Former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan said on April 6, 2008
that "There is more than a 50 percent chance the United States could go
into recession.". On October 1, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported
that an additional 156,000 jobs had been lost in September. On April 29,
2008, nine US states were declared by Moody's to be in a recession. In
November 2008 Employers eliminated 533,000 jobs, the largest single
month loss in 34 years. For 2008, an estimated 2.6 million U.S. jobs were
eliminated.

Although the US Economy grew in the first quarter by 1%, by June 2008
some analysts stated that due to a protracted credit crisis and "rampant
inflation in commodities such as oil, food and steel", the country was
nonetheless in a recession. The third quarter of 2008 brought on a GDP
retraction of 0.5% the biggest decline since 2001. The 6.4% decline in
spending during Q3 on non-durable goods, like clothing and food, was the
largest since 1950. A Nov 17, 2008 report from the Federal Reserve Bank
of Philadelphia based on the survey of 51 forecasters suggested that the
recession started in April 2008 and will last 14 months. They project real
GDP declining at an annual rate of 2.9% in the fourth quarter and 1.1% in
the first quarter of 2009. These forecasts represent significant downward
revisions from the forecasts of three months ago.

A December 1, 2008, report from the National Bureau of Economic


Research stated that the U.S. has been in a recession since December
2007 (when economic activity peaked), based on a number of measures
including job losses, declines in personal income, and declines in real
GDP.

Other countries
A few other countries have seen the rate of growth of GDP decrease,
generally attributed to reduced liquidity, sector price inflation in food and
energy, and the U.S. slowdown. These include the United Kingdom,
Canada, Japan, Australia, China, India, New Zealand and the Euro zone.
In some, the recession has already been confirmed by experts, while
others are still waiting for the fourth quarter GDP growth data to show
two consecutive quarters of negative growth. India along with China is
experiencing an economic slowdown but not a recession.

Current crisis in the US

The defaults on sub-prime mortgages (home loan defaults) have led to a


major crisis in the US. Sub-prime is a high risk debt offered to people
with poor credit worthiness or unstable incomes. Major Banks have
landed in trouble after people could not pay back loans.

The housing market soared on the back of easy availability of loans. The
realty sector boomed but could not sustain the momentum for long, and it
collapsed under the gargantuan weight of crippling loan defaults.
Foreclosures spread like wildfire putting the US economy on shaky
ground. This, coupled with rising oil prices at $100 a barrel, slowed down
the growth of the economy.

Past recessions in the US


The US economy has suffered 10 recessions since the end of World War
II. The Great Depression in the United was an economic slowdown, from
1930 to 1939. It was a decade of high unemployment, low profits, low
prices of goods, and high poverty.

The trade market was brought to a standstill, which consequently affected


the world markets in the 1930s. Industries that suffered the most included
agriculture, mining, and logging.

In 1937, the American economy unexpectedly fell, lasting through most


of 1938. Production declined sharply, as did profits and employment.
Unemployment jumped from 14.3 per cent in 1937 to 19.0 per cent in
1938.

The US saw a recession during 1982-83 due to a tight monetary policy to


control inflation and sharp correction to overproduction of the previous
decade. This was followed by Black Monday in October 1987, when a
stock market collapse saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunge by
22.6 per cent affecting the lives of millions of Americans.

The early 1990s saw a collapse of junk bonds and a financial crisis.

The US saw one of its biggest recessions in 2001, ending ten years of
growth, the longest expansion on record.

From March to November 2001, employment dropped by almost 1.7


million. In the 1990-91 recessions, the GDP fell 1.5 per cent from its peak
in the second quarter of 1990. The 2001 recession saw a 0.6 per cent
decline from the peak in the fourth quarter of 2000.

The dot-com burst hit the US economy and many developing countries as
well. The economy also suffered after the 9/11 attacks. In 2001, investors'
wealth dwindled as technology stock prices crashed.

Impact of an American Recession on India

Indian companies have major outsourcing deals from the US. India's
exports to the US have also grown substantially over the years. The India
economy is likely to lose between 1 to 2 percentage points in GDP growth
in the next fiscal year. Indian companies with big tickets deals in the US
would see their profit margins shrinking.

The worries for exporters will grow as rupee strengthens further against
the dollar. But experts note that the long-term prospects for India are
stable. A weak dollar could bring more foreign money to Indian markets.
Oil may get cheaper brining down inflation. A recession could bring down
oil prices to $70.

The whole of Asia would be hit by a recession as it depends on the US


economy. Even though domestic demand and diversification of trade in
the Asian region will partly counter any drop in the US demand, one
simply can't escape a downturn in the world's largest economy. The US
economy accounts for 30 per cent of the world's GDP.

Says Sudip Bandyopadhyay, director and CEO, Reliance Money: "In the
globalised world, complete decoupling is impossible. But India may
remain relatively less affected by adverse global events." In fact, many
small and medium companies have already started developing trade ties
with China and European countries to ward off big losses.

Manish Sonthalia, head, equity, Motilal Oswal Securities, says if the US


economy contracts much more than anticipated, the whole world's GDP
growth-which is estimated at 3.7 per cent by the IMF-will contract, and
India would be no exception.

The only silver lining is that the recession will happen slowly, probably in
six months or so. As of now, IT and IT-enabled services, textiles,
jewellery, handicrafts and leather segments will suffer losses because of
their trade link. Certain sections of commodities could face sharp impact
due to the volatile nature of these sectors. C.J. George, managing director,
Geojit Financial Services, says profits of lots of re-export firms may be
affected. Countries like China import commodities from India do some
value-addition and then export them to the US.

The IT sector will be the worst hit as 75 per cent of its revenues come
from the US. Low demand for services may force most Indian Fortune
500 companies to slash their IT budgets. Zinnov Consulting, a research
and offshore advisory, says that besides companies from ITeS and BPO,
automotive components will be affected.

During a full recession, US companies in health care, financial services


and all consumers demand driven firms are likely to cut down on their
spending. Among other sectors, manufacturing and financial institutions
are moderately vulnerable. If the service sector takes a serious hit, India
may have to revise its GDP to about 8 to 8.5 per cent or even less.
Lokendra Tomar, senior vice-president, Integreon, a BPO firm, says the
US recession is likely to have a dual impact on the outsourcing industry.
Appreciating rupee along with poor performance of US companies (law
firms, investment banks and media houses) will affect the bottom line of
the outsourcing industry. Small BPOs, which are operating at a net margin
of 7-8 per cent, will find it difficult to survive.

According to Dharmakirti Joshi, director and principal economist of


CRISIL, along and severe recession will seriously affect the portfolio and
fixed investment flows. Corporates will also suffer from volatility in
foreign exchange rates. The export sector will have to devise new
strategies to enhance productivity.

Consequences of US recession on India job market

Worst affected because of US recession will be the service industry of


India. Under service industries come BPO, KPO, IT, ITeS etc. Service
industry contributes about 52% to India's GDP growth. Now if that is
going to get hurt then it will also hurt India's overall growth but very
slightly. India is not going to face a major impact due to US recession.
People may say that there is going to be a huge job loss due to recession.
and will cite the example of TCS firing about 500 employees but these
were employees who didn’t perform and for cost cutting one have to
reduce Non performing asset and that exactly what has been done. There
is no threat to the skilled people. According to NASSCOM India will have
a shortage of about 5 million skilled people in IT/ITeS. So there are lots of
opportunities.

Apart from this India's travel, tourism and power industry is going to
grow at a better rate. This is again a good sign. India has a huge
population so a huge consumer base so we don’t have to always depend
on US for our growth. India's GDP is expected to grow at the rate of 8.5-
8.9 % which is again way above the growth rate of US and only second
highest in the world after China.

This recession gives us opportunity to be innovative and to think out of


box so that the US directly doesn’t affect our robust growth. Due to
increasing Rupee exporters are having a hard time but it has been noted
that our exporters are not that efficient and in past they got the benefit of
depreciating rupee. So now its time to be innovative and more effective
and increase the over all efficiency and go for systematic cost cutting to
balance the rupee effect. Infact there are lots of scope for improvement. In
West Africa goods at departmental stores are sold at the rate 5 times than
Indian price and Indian goods are not exported to several countries in
West Africa. It’s an excellent opportunity for our exporters.

10 Indian industries to do well during recession

In the current global economic slowdown, every sector of business is


being affected and is witnessing a hard time. But IKON Marketing
Consultants reports that in India there are few sectors which will grow in
this adverse situation.

AS EVERY business sector is affected by present global crisis and


everybody is talking of slow down in business, still in India there are few
sectors which will grow in this adverse situation. Let’s have a look.

1. Food

No one can survive without basic food material like milk, vegetables and
drinking water. Food processing companies will not be affected much and
rather will earn profits by increasing the prices. These are the basic needs
which we as a common man can not produce by our self.
According to Ministry of Food Processing Industry (MFPI), the food
processing industry in India was seeing growth even as the world was
facing economic recession. According to the minister, the industry is
presently growing at 14 per cent against six to seven per cent growth in
2003–04.The Indian food market is estimated at over US$ 182 billion and
accounts for about two thirds of the total Indian retail market. Further, the
retail food sector in India is likely to grow from around US$ 70 billion in
2008 to US$ 150 billion by 2025.

2. Railway

As the aviation sector has been affect much badly and resulting in sharp
rise in the air ticket rates the frequent travelers’ will prefer railways to cut
the cost of traveling and this will result in increased traffic in railways and
long queues at railway booking counters. The freight traffic of Indian
Railways has continued to grow in the last few months, albeit at slow
pace, indicating only marginal impact of the global recession on the
Indian economy.

The railways registered 13.87 per cent growth in revenue to Rs 57,863.90


crore in the first nine months ended December 31, 2008. While total
earnings from freight increased by 14.53 per cent at Rs 39,085.22 crore
during the period, passenger revenue earnings were up 11.81 per cent at
Rs 16,242.44 crore. The railways have enhanced freight revenue by
increasing its axle loading, improving customer services and adopting an
innovative pricing strategy.

3. PSU Banks

As seen in the private sector much of the job cuts due to global slowdown,
it’s the public sector undertaking (PSU) banks which gained much
confidence due to job safety and security. More and more people are
likely to turn towards government institutions, particularly banks in the
quest for safety and security.
A report "Opportunities in Indian Banking Sector", by market research
company, RNCOS, forecasts that the Indian banking sector will grow at a
healthy compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 23.3 per cent till
2011.

4. Education

As education is considered as the basic necessity and in India it is seen as


a long term investment by parents and with respect to the demand still
there is a huge supply gap. The craze to study in foreign university among
the Indian youth still alive which will prompt foreign education institute
to target India provided vast young population willing to join. We will see
more and more foreign educational institutions coming up in India in
recent coming years.

Huge government as well as private investment is likely to flow into the


Indian educational system. D E Shaw, a US$ 36 billion, global private
equity firm is planning to invest around US$ 200 million in the Indian
education sector.

5. Telecom

People will not stop to communicate with each other due to global crises
rather it has been seen that it will increase much particularly with mobile
communication. With cheap cell phones available in the Indian market
and cheaper call rates, the sector has become the necessity and primary
need of everyday life.

Telecom sector, according to industry estimates, year 2008 started with a


subscriber base of 228 million and will likely to end with a subscriber
base of 332 million – a full century. The telecom industry expects to add
at least another 90 million subscribers in 2009 despite of recession. The
Indian telecommunications industry is one of the fastest growing in the
world and India is projected to become the second largest telecom market
globally by 2010.

6. IT

Recent news shown that Indian IT sector will grow 30 to 40 per cent next
year. And on the other side to survive in current slowdown, industries
have to decrease the cost and for that they will resort to customised IT
solutions which will further boost up the software solution demand.

India is fast becoming a hot destination for outsourced e-publishing work.


As per a Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) report, the industry is
growing at an annual rate of 35 per cent and India’s outsourcing
opportunities in the value-added and core services such as copy editing,
project management, indexing, media services and content deployment
will help make the publishing BPO industry worth US$ 1.46 billion by
2010.

7. Health care

India in case of health care facilities still lakes the adequate supply. In
health care sector also there is huge gap between demand and supply at all
the levels of society. Still there are so many urban areas were you could
hardly find any multi specialty hospital. And in case of metros the market
sentiments itself created a need of psychological consultation.

Healthcare, which is a US$ 35 billion industry in India, is expected to


reach over US$ 75 billion by 2012 and US$ 150 billion by 2017. The
healthcare industry is interestingly poised as it strives to emerge as a
global hub due to the distinct advantages it enjoys in clinical excellence
and low costs.

8. Luxury products
The high and affluent class of society will not be affected much by this
global crises even if their worth is reduced significantly. They will not
change their lifestyle and will not stop spending on luxurious goods. So
luxurious product market will not be affected and in fact to maintain the
lifestyle those affluent will spend more for it. Luxury car makers are
pouring in to woo the nouveau riche (Audi, BMW are the most recent
entrants).

9. M&A & Marketing Consultants

As in the current business slow down survival will be the main focus, the
marketing and management consultants will be called for to reduce the
costs and to show the ways to survive and stay in market. Others may join
hands to fight with this situation together will call for the Marketing &
M&A consultants. In a booming market there are growth strategies and
M&A opportunities to advise on. When businesses are cutting back,
consultancies will be right there to help clients decide where to wield the
axe.

According to Ministry of Commerce and Industry’s estimation, the


current size of consulting industry in India is about Rs 10000 crores
including exports and is expected to grow further at a CAGR of
aproximately 25 per cent in next few years.

10. Media and Entertainment

In current bad times, where people are losing jobs and getting enough
time to watch TV, they will seek entertainment at home and hence
advertising revenues will increase for the commercial channels. Also
businesses like production of religious texts and religious materials,
religious channels will do well. The TRP of religious channels will
increase compare to the other entertaining/commercial channels.
According to a report published by the Federation of Indian Chambers of
Commerce and Industry (FICCI), the Indian M&E industry is expected to
grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18 per cent to reach
US$ 23.81 billion by 2012. According to the PWC report, the television
industry was worth US$ 5. 48 billion in 2007, recording a growth of 18
per cent over 2006. It is further likely to grow by 22 per cent over the next
five years and be worth US$ 12. 34 billion by 2012.

Conclusion

Over the past couple of months, fears of a slowdown in the United States
of America have increased. The impact of the sub prime crisis along with
a slowdown in mortgages has led to a significant lowering of growth
estimates. Since the United States dominates the global economy, any
slowdown there would have an impact on most of the global economic
variables.

For India, it could mean a further appreciation in the rupee Vis--Vis the
US dollar and a darkening of business outlook for sectors dependent on
US companies. The overall impact of a US slowdown on India would,
however, be minimal as the factors driving growth here are more local in
nature. Unlike the rest of Asia, India is a strong domestic demand story, so
any slowing in the US is likely to have a more muted impact on India.
Strong growth in domestic consumption and significant spending on
infrastructure are the two pillars of India’s growth story. No sector has a
dominant influence on earnings growth and risks to our estimate are
limited. Corporate India is also learning to master the art of efficient
capital management, reduction in costs and delivery of value-added
services to sustain profit margins. Further, interest rates are expected to be
stable primarily due to control over inflation and proactive measures
undertaken by the RBI.

Bibliography

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