Memorandum Date: 17 October 2012 By: William Cody Garton Subject: Kazakhstan: Recent Developments and Key U.S.

Interests

Kazakhstan is an important player on the world stage for the new U.S. Pivot to Asia strategy. Due to its unique location in Central Asia, bordering both Russia and China, Kazakhstan is an important power player on international security, and is rich in both resources and intelligence. Our Strategic goal with Kazakhstan is to ensure and maintain the development of the country as a stable, secure, democratic, and prosperous partner.1The U.S. has strong interests in Kazakhstan and its government, pertaining to bilateral support operations and economic stability. Key Points: The U.S. assessment and interests regarding human rights abuse, energy and regional security. The United States assessment and policy towards bilateral support regarding counter-terrorism efforts domestic and abroad. The U.S. preferred outcomes: Continued bilateral and counter-terrorism support within the region. Recognized democracy and free elections of the countries leaders, an initiative towards a clean environment, and a steady supporter for U.S. interests regarding security issues with boarding states (Russia and China). We can provide aide, military training, and mitigate boarder disputes with other Central Asian states. Overall Assessment: The relations of both the United States and Kazakhstan on National security strategy and interests, is a delicate but strengthening relationship. The United States favors Kazakhstan over Uzbekistan as a reliable partner for security in Central Asia, and thus Kazakhstan continues to work closely with the United States. Both Kazakhstan and the U.S. face extreme challenges when dealing with the global war on terror, for both countries have been affected by the same

1 39 U.S.

Department of State. Congressional Budget Justification for Foreign Operations, FY2013, April 3, 2011.

terror organizations over the past 8 years. Since 2003, the U.S. has given approximately $230 million dollars, to aid Kazakhstan in helping with the strengthening of their security forces, troops, and supply routes. In return, the Kazakh government aided the U.S. and its allies by supplying ideal airbases that help with the military position with the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Kazakhstan also plays an enormous role in helping to get the Russian leadership

on board with the United States, following the incidents of the September 11, 2001 attacks. and more recent terror strikes in the region. President Obama views the relationship with Kazakhstan as a key strategic focal point in energy, human rights, counter terrorism, and Russian/Chinese relations. All in all, the Kazakh government seems to be a clear, concise choice for bilateral operations for regional, economic, and global security. Kazakhstan under President Nazarbayev has said that his government treasures the relationship with the United States, and believes there needs to be a working order amongst regional and world powers to combat the threat to security. The U.S. has aided the Kazakhs for the past two decades in support for training troops, human rights, and opening supply routes to Afghanistan for U.S. combat troops. However, despite the fundamentally sound relations the U.S. shares with the Kazakh government, their increasing and recent political ties with Russia could pose a threat to U.S. interests in the region. Kazakhstan recently signed a declaration of eternal friendship and alliance with Russia, which guarantees in the event of an attack (economic or conventional) the two countries would assist one another by means of military support.2 However, despite this agreement, the relations between the U.S. and Kazakhstan are still strong and prosperous, with both countries working together to fulfill obligations and secure interests

Nichol, J. Library of Congress, Congressional Research Service. (2008). Kazakhstan: Current developments and u.s. interests (97-1058 F). Retrieved from website: http://www.ndu.edu/library/docs/crs/crs_971058f_04may04.pdf

that serve the needs of security and humanity. The U.S. finds this relationship, a strategic and respected aspect to domestic security, and the Kazakh government expresses continued desire to work bilaterally and in support of American regional leadership. This will help the Kazakhs and the U.S. eradicate terror, work towards democracy, and play a crucial mitigating and leading role in the Central Asian region. National Security Issues between the U.S. and Kazakhstan: The major National Security issue facing the U.S. interests in Kazakhstan is that of assistance towards global disarmament and counter-terrorism support, specifically in Iraq and Afghanistan. The United States continual work with the Kazakh government will ensure vital supply lines remain open, our troops are equipped, and military goals are successfully carried out. Since the fall of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s, the Kazakh government has been a key part in assisting the U.S. led strategy to help decommission nuclear warheads and explosives. Due to the close proximity of Russia, this has been a top priority of the U.S. With the help of U.S. leadership and Kazakhstan's President Nursultan Nazarbayev in an effort towards nonproliferation, a nuclear fuel bank was set up under the IAEA and has led to the disarmament of nuclear material in Kazakhstan and neighboring countries. U.S. Comprehensive Threat Reduction (CTR) assistance was used for these efforts, and for subsequent control and elimination of nuclear materials and former chemical and biological warfare facilities. This allows the U.S. to know and understand the capabilities and threats of neighboring regional countries and the threats posed to the U.S. international interests and the domestic homeland. The Kazakh government continues to be on board with the nonproliferation agreement and leads the effort in Central Asia. Their leaders understand the threats and devastation nuclear materials can

cause, both economically and militarily. Research has shown that there is no resistance from the Kazakh people for a relationship with the U.S., as the people understand the implications a nuclear regime can have on the region and its population. This continual support of the Kazakh people and their government, remains a top priority for the U.S. in maintaining a nuclear free (hostile) region and a trustworthy partner to combat stateless terror activities. The second major National Security Issue the U.S. faces in respect to Kazakhstan is that of U.S. Policy and Foreign National Defense. The Kazakh government has recently renewed its peace-treaty with Russia, stating both countries will help defend the other militarily if they are either attacked or invaded by another opposing state. Both Russias President Vladimir Putin and the Kazakh leadership wish to work together to create a Eurasian Custom to facilitate trade and economic growth in the region. This severely hurt U.S. influence and national interests in the region. Some fear that this will threaten the countrys sovereignty and lead back to Russia having controlling interests in the Kazakh economy and security. President Nazarbayev in April 2012 made interesting anti-western remarks, regarding and pushing back U.S. influence through social media, promoting democracy on those who dont want it. The Kazakh government has repeatedly said they valued the opinion and relationship they share with the United States, but they do not feel that the democratized push by the U.S. is in the best interests of Kazakhstan. The Kazakh government and people look forward and desire to work with Putins Russia, to begin establishing the framework of this so called Eurasian Union and the endless trading possibilities they feel it will bring about. The Kazakh government believes this is a move towards strengthening and stabilizing Kazakhstans economy, while improving relations with major powers like Russia, China and Iran. Although Kazakhstan has not shown any recent signs

of immediately working with Moscow, Beijing, or Tehran, this is an issue that that could severely hurt the U.S. when dealing with Russia, China, and Iran on both security and economic issues in the near future. The third ranking issue concerning National Security interests with Kazakhstan is that of Human Rights abuse. Kazakhstans human rights record took a hit in 2011, for failing to carry out long-promised reforms, and thus faced many setbacks. A new restrictive religion law has been installed, internet and media censorship has been carried out, political party formation has been discouraged, activities of nongovernmental organizations are restricted, and torture and arbitrary arrest has arisen. The U.S. State Department has condemned Kazakhstan for its continued lack for reformation and push towards drastically needed reforms. Since these human right violations do not comply with the agreements made with the U.S. in past year, there is pressure for the U.S. to intervene. The type of response the U.S. takes on these issues will set the precedent for the future, and will determine how other countries, especially in the Central Asian region, view American power and idealism. This issue can play into strategic partnerships in Central Asia and surrounding regions, but if handled negatively, it could result in the loss of strategic allies. The Kazakh government seemingly dismisses the charges of abuse and claims they are making strides towards reformation, despite continuing to pass restrictive laws and bring harm to there citizens. The U.S. must exert its influence and leadership on this matter and must make clear, that a U.S. ally can not behave in such a manner without expecting certain repercussions. The Kazakh government must have this brought to their attention, and must

acknowledge the risks that it poses, to both the U.S. and their own security.

Desired Results: 1.) The United States and its leaders wish to seek continued bilateral agreements with the leaders and government of Kazakhstan, on the issues of counter-terrorism security. The U.S. recommends a policy of smart-power politics when dealing with these leaders, providing aide and economic funding when fundamentally available. The Kazakh government has been readily accepting and very hopeful towards the continuation of these past agreements, and believe they are a key component to both countries National Security and Defense strategies. The U.S. wishes to work more delicately and closer to the intelligence agencies in Kazakhstan and have a better understanding of the terror groups presiding in that region. The U.S. will be hesitant to directly respond to any crisis in Kazakhstan with American troops, but will look for alternative means to asses the situation and respond with the most economical and efficient means. The United States would also continue to work with Kazakhstan on completing our goal of leaving Afghanistan in year of 2014. The Kazakhs have been a crucial player in helping us achieve our goal in Afghanistan, and thus we would like to continually work with them on a permanent bilateral basis to stabilize and secure the country. Through the regional security and diplomatic means provided through the Kazakh government, the U.S. can work with Kazakh leaders to promote U.S. and Kazakh interests, which in return will strengthen our economies, our securities, and ultimately our global society. 2.) The United States would like to see the straightening of the Kazakh economy by means of free market and diplomacy. The United States is avidly opposed of a creation of a Eurasian-Union for economic, military and trade-route support amongst the Central Asian

world region and its inhabitants. The U.S. claims that the creation of the Eurasia-Union will hurt U.S.-Kazakh relations. The U.S. would like to see a more clear, transparent plan for the economic transition for Kazakhstan, but will face obstacles while the creation of the EurasianUnion is being led by President Putin of Russia. President Obama has agreed to grant aid to Kazakhstan's economic recovery in exchange for not entering the Eurasian-Union agreement. This would secure the U.S. interests in oil and imports from Kazakhstan. The United States must take all steps necessary to maintain this valuable relationship in the Central Asian region, and will keep all necessary options on the table, to maintain bilateral and security partnerships with the Kazakh government and intel agencies. 3.) The U.S. would like to reconcile with the government of Kazakhstan on the issues of human rights abuses, and ensure new agreements will be reached to stop the violations all together. The United States would like to work together with U.N. and other regional aide workers to monitor the situation in Kazakhstan and other countries in the region, to ensure the rights of the people are respected. The U.S. would like to see a new treaty or agreement signed between the two countries, gaining a promise from the Kazakh government to work towards ending the severe tactics against political prisoners and public offenders. The U.S. is also willing to provide some aide and awareness training to Kazakh security forces in return for this agreement. Kazakhstan already denies such violations are taking place in their boarders, thus the U.S. must carefully asses how to approach this delicate situation and partnership. The United States is committed to its values of spreading democracy and liberalization into Kazakhstan, but not at the expense of loosing a key intelligence ally, or an economic partner, essential to U.S. interests and security in the Central Asian region.

Works Cited: Central Asia: Regional developments and implications for u.s. interests . (2009, May 12). Retrieved from http://www.policyarchive.org/handle/10207/2845 Kamziyeva, G. (2012, September 04). Kazakhstan discusses security problems . Retrieved from http://centralasiaonline.com/en_GB/articles/caii/features/main/2012/09/04/feature-01 Nichol, J. U.S. Congress, Congressional Research Service. (2008). Kazakhstan: Current developments and u.s. interests (97-1058 F). Retrieved from Congress website: http:// www.ndu.edu/library/docs/crs/crs_971058f_04may04.pdf Nichol, J. Library of Congress, Congressional Research Service. (2008). Kazakhstan: Current developments and u.s. interests (97-1058 F). Retrieved from website: http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/97-1058.pdf U.S. Department of State, Central Asian Affairs. (2012). Foreign minister idrissov and secretary clinton discuss kazakhstan-u.s. strategic partnership issues (112). Retrieved from Embassy of Kazakhstan website: http://www.kazakhembus.com/article/foreignminister-idrissov-and-secretary-clinton-discuss-kazakhstan U.S. Department of State. Congressional Budget Justification for Foreign Operations, FY2013, April 3, 2011. Sullivan, A. (2011, November 23). [Web log message]. Retrieved from http:// nationalsecuritypolicy.blogspot.com/2011/11/kazakhstan-what-is-behind-peacecorps.html Wilson, R. (2012, January 31). Twenty years of kazakhstan independence and us-kazakhstan relations: 1/31/2012 - looking forward. Retrieved from http://www.acus.org/event/ twenty-years-kazakhstan-independence-and-us-kazakhstan-relations/transcript/ looking-forward