Ejemplo de Clculo de Mximas Avenidas Mediante los Mtodos Estadsticos

(Uso de los Factores de Frecuencia)

Informacin de Descargas Mximas para 28 aos de registro
Ao

Q
m3/s

Q
m3/s

Posicin
m

P >= Q (%)
m/(N+1)

T (aos)
(N+1)/m

Y=Log Q

1
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982

2230.0
3220.0
2246.0
1804.0
2737.0
2070.0
3682.0
4240.0
2367.0
7061.0
2489.0
2350.0
3706.0

7430.0
7061.0
6900.0
6267.0
6000.0
5971.0
5565.0
4744.0
4240.0
4060.0
3706.0
3682.0
3220.0

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13

3.45
6.90
10.34
13.79
17.24
20.69
24.14
27.59
31.03
34.48
37.93
41.38
44.83

29.00
14.50
9.67
7.25
5.80
4.83
4.14
3.63
3.22
2.90
2.64
2.42
2.23

3.8710
3.8489
3.8388
3.7971
3.7782
3.7760
3.7455
3.6761
3.6274
3.6085
3.5689
3.5661
3.5079

1983

2675.0

3130.0

14

48.28

2.07

3.4955

1984

6267.0

2737.0

15

51.72

1.93

3.4373

1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994

5971.0
4744.0
6000.0
4060.0
6900.0
5565.0
3130.0
2414.0
1796.0
7430.0

2675.0
2489.0
2414.0
2367.0
2350.0
2246.0
2230.0
2070.0
1804.0
1796.0

16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25

55.17
58.62
62.07
65.52
68.97
72.41
75.86
79.31
82.76
86.21

1.81
1.71
1.61
1.53
1.45
1.38
1.32
1.26
1.21
1.16

3.4273
3.3960
3.3827
3.3742
3.3711
3.3514
3.3483
3.3160
3.2562
3.2543

Media

3886.16

Media

3.5448

Desv. Est.

1825.91

Des. Est.

0.1999

Cof. Asim.

0.6778

Cof. Asim.

0.2514

Anlisis de Mximas Avenidas - Mtodo Log-Normal

T

K=Z

aos

Q (m3/s)

estimado

antilog(Y)

0.50000

0.0000

3.5448

3506.13

0.20000

0.8415

3.7130

5164.73

10

0.10000

1.2817

3.8011

6325.06

25

0.04000

1.7511

3.8949

7850.45

50

0.02000

2.0542

3.9555

9025.91

75

0.01333

2.2168

3.9880

9727.48

100

0.01000

2.3268

4.0100

10232.62

150

0.00667

2.4752

4.0396

10955.94

200

0.00500

2.5762

4.0599

11477.73

300

0.00333

2.7134

4.0873

12225.98

400

0.00250

2.8074

4.1061

12766.38

500

0.00200

2.8785

4.1203

13191.19

1000

0.00100

3.0905

4.1627

14543.51

Anlisis de Mximas Avenidas - Mtodo de Gumbel

T

Q (m3/s)

aos
2
5
10
25
50
75
100
150
200
300
400
500
1000

0.50000
0.20000
0.10000
0.04000
0.02000
0.01333
0.01000
0.00667
0.00500
0.00333
0.00250
0.00200
0.00100

-0.1643
0.7195
1.3046
2.0438
2.5923
2.9111
3.1367
3.4541
3.6791
3.9959
4.2205
4.3947
4.9355

3586.21
5199.82
6268.17
7618.03
8619.44
9201.49
9613.45
10193.08
10603.83
11182.26
11592.42
11910.45
12897.96

Anlisis de Mximas Avenidas - Mtodo Log-Pearson Tipo III

T

aos

Q (m3/s)

2
5
10
25
50
75
100
150

0.50000
0.20000
0.10000
0.04000
0.02000
0.01333
0.01000
0.00667

-0.0418
0.8266
1.3053
1.8345
2.1867
2.3791
2.5106
2.6897

estimado
3.5365
3.7101
3.8058
3.9116
3.9820
4.0204
4.0467
4.0825

antilog(Y)
3439.28
5129.64
6394.21
8157.72
9593.60
10481.99
11136.02
12093.31

500

0.00200

3.1870

4.1820

15204.27

1000

0.00100

3.4546

4.2354

17196.70

Comparacin de los Valores de Caudales Mximos Obtenidos

T

aos

Q (m3/s)

Q (m3/s)

Q (m3/s)

Q (m3/s)

observado

Log-Normal

Gumbel

Log-Pearson

0.50000

169.00

3506.13

3586.21

3439.28

0.20000

189.00

5164.73

5199.82

5129.64

10

0.10000

210.00

6325.06

6268.17

6394.21

25

0.04000

255.00

7850.45

7618.03

8157.72

50

0.02000

9025.91

8619.44

9593.60

75

0.01333

9727.48

9201.49

10481.99

100

0.01000

10232.62

9613.45

11136.02

150

0.00667

10955.94

10193.08

200

0.00500

11477.73

10603.83

#REF!

300

0.00333

12225.98

11182.26

#REF!

400

0.00250

12766.38

11592.42

#REF!

500

0.00200

13191.19

11910.45

15204.27

1000

0.00100

14543.51

12897.96

17196.70

12093.31

Clculo de los Lmites de Confianza - Mtodo Log-Normal

Grados de libertad: 28 - 2 =

26

K=Z

t (estad.) =

IC(Y)

2.056

LCI(Y)

LCS(Y)

LCI(Q)

LCS(Q)

aos
2
5
10
25
50
75
100
150
200
300
400
500
1000

0.50000
0.20000
0.10000
0.04000
0.02000
0.01333
0.01000
0.00667
0.00500
0.00333
0.00250
0.00200
0.00100

0.0000
0.8415
1.2817
1.7511
2.0542
2.2168
2.3268
2.4752
2.5762
2.7134
2.8074
2.8785
3.0905

3.5448
3.7130
3.8011
3.8949
3.9555
3.9880
4.0100
4.0396
4.0599
4.0873
4.1061
4.1203
4.1627

0.0777
0.0904
0.1048
0.1236
0.1370
0.1444
0.1496
0.1566
0.1614
0.1681
0.1727
0.1762
0.1867

3.4672
3.6227
3.6962
3.7713
3.8185
3.8436
3.8604
3.8831
3.8984
3.9192
3.9334
3.9441
3.9760

3.6225
3.8034
3.9059
4.0185
4.0925
4.1324
4.1595
4.1962
4.2213
4.2553
4.2787
4.2964
4.3493

2931.92
4194.32
4968.59
5905.63
6584.31
6975.48
7251.58
7639.66
7914.74
8302.70
8578.49
8792.85
9462.21

4192.80
6359.66
8051.87
10435.72
12372.89
13565.21
14439.13
15711.76
16644.66
18003.11
18998.75
19789.65
22353.51

Clculo de los Lmites de Confianza - Mtodo de Gumbel

Grados de libertad: 28 - 2 =

26

t (estad.) =

Q (m3/s)

IC(Q)

2.056

LCI(Q)

LCS(Q)

aos
2
5
10
25
50
75
100
150

0.50000
0.20000
0.10000
0.04000
0.02000
0.01333
0.01000
0.00667

-0.1643
0.7195
1.3046
2.0438
2.5923
2.9111
3.1367
3.4541

3586.21
5199.82
6268.17
7618.03
8619.44
9201.49
9613.45
10193.08

714.22
795.98
965.20
1246.83
1481.37
1623.57
1726.08
1872.40

2871.99
4403.84
5302.97
6371.20
7138.06
7577.92
7887.37
8320.68

4300.44
5995.80
7233.37
8864.86
10100.81
10825.06
11339.53
12065.48

500

0.00200

4.3947

11910.45

1000

0.00100

4.9355

12897.96

2315.97

9594.48

14226.42

2575.58

10322.38

15473.55

Clculo de los Lmites de Confianza - Mtodo Log-Pearson Tipo III

Grados de libertad: 28 - 3 =

25

t (estad.) =

IC(Y)

2.06

LCI(Y)

LCS(Y)

LCI(Q)

LCS(Q)

aos
2

0.50000

-0.0418

3.5365

0.0779

3.4586

3.6143

2874.79

4114.62

0.20000

0.8266

3.7101

0.0901

3.6199

3.8002

4168.11

6312.99

10

0.10000

1.3053

3.8058

0.1059

3.6999

3.9117

5010.41

8160.18

25

0.04000

1.8345

3.9116

0.1275

3.7841

4.0390

6082.70

10940.61

50

0.02000

2.1867

3.9820

0.1433

3.8387

4.1253

6897.13

13344.26

75

0.01333

2.3791

4.0204

0.1523

3.8681

4.1728

7381.28

14885.24

100

0.01000

2.5106

4.0467

0.1586

3.8882

4.2053

7729.56

16043.73

150

0.00667

2.6897

4.0825

0.1672

3.9153

4.2498

8228.30

17773.82

200

0.00500

2.8129

4.1072

0.1733

3.9339

4.2804

8588.36

19073.96

300

0.00333

2.9817

4.1409

0.1816

3.9593

4.3225

9105.43

21014.61

400

0.00250

3.0983

4.1642

0.1874

3.9768

4.3516

9479.60

22472.16

500

0.00200

3.1870

4.1820

0.1919

3.9901

4.3738

9774.24

23650.94

1000

0.00100

3.4546

4.2354

0.2054

4.0300

4.4409

10715.66

27597.58

FACTOR DE FRECUENCIA K = Z
DISTRIBUCION NORMAL
T

FACTOR DE FRECUENCIA K
DISTRIBUCION TIPO I - GUMBEL

aos
1
2
3
4
5
6
8
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
125
150
175
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
7500
8000
10000

aos
1.00000
0.50000
0.33333
0.25000
0.20000
0.16667
0.12500
0.10000
0.06667
0.05000
0.04000
0.03333
0.02857
0.02500
0.02222
0.02000
0.01818
0.01667
0.01538
0.01429
0.01333
0.01250
0.01176
0.01111
0.01053
0.01000
0.00800
0.00667
0.00571
0.00500
0.00400
0.00333
0.00286
0.00250
0.00222
0.00200
0.00182
0.00167
0.00154
0.00143
0.00133
0.00125
0.00118
0.00111
0.00105
0.00100
0.00067
0.00050
0.00040
0.00033
0.00029
0.00025
0.00022
0.00020
0.00013
0.00013
0.00010

infinito
1.1774
1.4823
1.6651
1.7941
1.8930
2.0393
2.1460
2.3273
2.4477
2.5373
2.6081
2.6666
2.7162
2.7592
2.7971
2.8310
2.8616
2.8894
2.9150
2.9385
2.9604
2.9808
2.9999
3.0179
3.0349
3.1075
3.1656
3.2140
3.2552
3.3231
3.3775
3.4228
3.4616
3.4955
3.5255
3.5524
3.5769
3.5992
3.6197
3.6387
3.6564
3.6729
3.6885
3.7031
3.7169
3.8245
3.8989
3.9558
4.0016
4.0399
4.0728
4.1017
4.1273
4.2244
4.2396
4.2919

infinito
0.0000
0.4303
0.6742
0.8415
0.9674
1.1504
1.2817
1.5014
1.6452
1.7511
1.8343
1.9026
1.9604
2.0103
2.0542
2.0933
2.1285
2.1605
2.1898
2.2168
2.2418
2.2652
2.2870
2.3075
2.3268
2.4093
2.4752
2.5297
2.5762
2.6525
2.7134
2.7641
2.8074
2.8451
2.8785
2.9084
2.9355
2.9603
2.9830
3.0041
3.0236
3.0419
3.0591
3.0753
3.0905
3.2090
3.2908
3.3530
3.4031
3.4450
3.4809
3.5124
3.5402
3.6458
3.6624
3.7191

1
2
3
4
5
6
8
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
125
150
175
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
7500
8000
10000

1.00000
0.50000
0.33333
0.25000
0.20000
0.16667
0.12500
0.10000
0.06667
0.05000
0.04000
0.03333
0.02857
0.02500
0.02222
0.02000
0.01818
0.01667
0.01538
0.01429
0.01333
0.01250
0.01176
0.01111
0.01053
0.01000
0.00800
0.00667
0.00571
0.00500
0.00400
0.00333
0.00286
0.00250
0.00222
0.00200
0.00182
0.00167
0.00154
0.00143
0.00133
0.00125
0.00118
0.00111
0.00105
0.00100
0.00067
0.00050
0.00040
0.00033
0.00029
0.00025
0.00022
0.00020
0.00013
0.00013
0.00010

infinito
-0.1643
0.2538
0.5214
0.7195
0.8770
1.1198
1.3046
1.6347
1.8658
2.0438
2.1887
2.3108
2.4163
2.5093
2.5923
2.6673
2.7358
2.7987
2.8569
2.9111
2.9617
3.0093
3.0541
3.0965
3.1367
3.3115
3.4541
3.5747
3.6791
3.8535
3.9959
4.1163
4.2205
4.3125
4.3947
4.4691
4.5370
4.5994
4.6573
4.7111
4.7614
4.8087
4.8533
4.8955
4.9355
5.2518
5.4762
5.6502
5.7924
5.9126
6.0167
6.1086
6.1907
6.5069
6.5572
6.7312