Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
/ 2013
2013 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank
1818 H Street NW
Washington DC 20433
Telephone: 202-473-1000
Internet: www.worldbank.org
This report was prepared for the World Bank by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics.
The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of
Executive Directors, or the governments they represent.
The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this commissioned work.
The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of
The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.
Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed
to the Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC
20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2422; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org.
.1
.2
.3
.4
) (
) (
.1
.2
.3
.1
.2
v
vii
1
17
19
2
5
7
9
12
13
14
10
11
iii
:
. :
4 / .2012
.
-
- .
) ( ISI-MIP
) 1ORCHIDEE : ( ) JULES
() VIC
( ) H08 ( ) WaterGAP (
) MacPDM ( ) WBM ( MPI-HM
) ( ) PCR-GLOBWB ( ) DBH
( ) MATSIRO ( ) Hybrid ( ) Shefflield DGVM
( ) JeDi ( ) ANTHRO-BGC
( ) VISIT ( GEPIC
) ( ) EPIC ( ) pDSSAT (
) DAYCENT ( ) IMAGE ( ) PEGASUS
( ) LPJ-GUESS ( ) MAgPIE ( GLOBIOM
) ( ) IMPACT
( ) DIVA ( ) MARA
( ) WHO CCRA Malaria ( ) LMM 2005 ( ) MIASMA
( ) VECTRI (.
.
.
.
.
.
) ( ) (.
.
.
- .
.
:
-
-
- -
-
.
) (CDKN
) (GFDRR ) (CIF ) (C4C
.
vi
.
.2030 .
4
.
. 20 30
.
.
0.8 .
.
.
.
.
.
.
4 .
.
.
.
. .
4 .
vii
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
viii
.
2012 : 4 1
4
.
.
.
.
.
0.8
.
:
.
0.8 1.5 2 4
.
. 1
.
.
1 : 4 /
.2012
.
2012
40 2100 10
.
.
0.8
.
) (
:1
) (
(%) 3
)(
**
(%) 3
)(
: 70 )
( 30
) (
:
100 )
( 60
)
(
* RCP2.6
.
** RCP8.5
.
.
) (
.
. :
.1 :2
.
.
.2 :
.
.
20
50
.
20 .
.
.3 :
.
0.8 .
) 0.8 (
.
.
1.5
.
.
.4 :
.
)
1.2 1.3 (
) 2070 2.1 2.7 (.
.
.
.5 :
50
.
70 .2100
100
4 2100
.
.
2 ) (
. ) (1980-1951
)( .
. 740 .
2012 2010 .
.
. ) .(2.2
100
.
15-10
.
.
.6 :
.
1.5
.
4 .
0.1 .
30 .
.
150
20 .
:
800
49 .
2050 1.5 .
.
.
.
.
4
.
.
:
.
30
50 70
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
2011
.
:
) .(2
10
1985 .2005
.
.
:2
) (
) (
2071 2099 1951 .1980 ) 80 ( .
) 40 ( . .
.
.
. 1.5
40
.
1.5
)(
.
10 .
15 20 .
:
.
.
) :
(
.
50 40
1995.1997
.
3
.
.
.
15 65
. 1.2 1.9 2050
2590
.
.
.
.
.
5
:
.
759
2050 65 .
593 2010 44 .
.
.
.
:
.
60 70
30 40
. 4
90
.
:
1986 2005
10 15
.
50 2060 100 .2090
:
.
.
50 80
.
6
:
. 100
7 12
4 .
.
.
.
.
20
2100 .
.2050
50 .
:
.
5
. 40
.
.
3.
1.5
) 50 (
) 2030 .(3
3
.
.
:3
8.5 2030
3PD 2030
8.5 2050
3PD 2050
8.5 2100
3PD 2100
) (8 2.6 )
( 8.5 ) 4 ( .. (2012) Meissner et al. :
: ) 319-309 2012 31 (2
3 . .
.
2050
.
. 50
.
30 2040
12
.
.
40 15
) ( 70
88 )
4 ( .
.
.
. 2005 41
44
.
7
:
1.6
2.2 .2050
.
.
.
.
.
1.5
.
.
:
.
.
:
.
30
.
8
30
30
) .(4
) (
) (
.
:
.
4
10 .
.
:
.
.
.
.
.
:
.
.
.
.
.
:
.
115-100
80-60
1986 2005
.
:4
.
.
.
.
.
60
.
.
35
2050
.
.
4
10
15
.
100 10 .
.
.
)( )( )(
) 2.6 ( ) 8.5 (
2071 2099 1951 .1980
2 5
. )
(
.
.
)
(
.
.
:1
:
.
.
.
:
4 .
.
.
:
.
.
) .(3-1
4
.
1.5 .
0.8
.
4
) .(1
.
10
.
) (
.
.
:
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
4
.
.
.
.
.
.
4
.
)
)( .
.
2000
20
80 4
. 4
.
.
.
. .
.
.
) .(2
.
.
. 4
.
. .
.
.
:2
.
.
2050
56 36
.2010
.
.
:
.
.
.
.
4 .2013
.
11
:1
/
)/
(
12
0.8
) (
1
) (
4.0
) (
85
45
55
15
1950
2
3
4
10
3
70 ) 80-60( 105 2100-2080 ) 125-85(
2100-2080
15-10
)
5
(
50 70
7
30
6
15
20
81
192
2000 121
111
176
8
101
)
9
(
10
10
4 6
11
12
18
13
14
:2
/
0.8
)(
1
) (
70-60
40-30
15
17 16
18
75 ) 85-65( 2100-2080
)
(
34
) 12 (
1965 (2005-1995) 1995
19
20
21
2005
) /
90
80
6
9
110 ) 130-85(
2100-2080
5
20
2100 8.5
22
60
23
:
25
7 12
4.0
) (
) :(2005
10-5
24
1.5
26
27
130 190
2010 2050
29
28
30
31
13
:3
/
14
0.8
) (
1
) (
20
5
30-20
70 ) 80-60( 2100-2080
36
34
4.0
) (
70
40
.32
33
105 ) 125-85(
2100-2080
5 10
35
2070 1.5
37
65
39
50
20
40
41
.43 42 3
44
10
45
12
) 2000 60
(
46
14.6
47
5.0
48
5 2050
1.4
2050
2010
4
50
52
20
38
1 2100
.
2 - . ) (2012 2011
) (2013
) .(2013
10 ).(2008
11 ).(2011
12 ) .(2012
) .(2010
52 116 82 142 . 1
) ( 30 ) ( 9 55 23 55 9 36 .
15
2071 .2099
16 ).(2011
17 ).(2012
18 ) .(2012 1 ) (2099-2075 .
19 ).(2012
20 ) 2100 .(2011
21 ).(2011
22 ) .(2012 .
23 ) .(2011 2025 17 .
24 ) (2010 . 2005 ) (
.
25 4 ) 2100 .(2010
26 ).(2012
190.7 27 2010 ) 2020 (2012 130 2010 ) 2050 .(2010
28
) .(2010
.
29 ) .(2010
.2100
) 1(.
30 ) (2011
31- ) .(2009 50 2041 .2070
32 ).(2012
33 ).(2013
34 1.5 .2100
.2100
35 )2010( .
10 .
36 ).(2010
37 ) .(2012 .
38 ) (2013 2.3 3.2 .
39 ) .(2011 1 2.7 .
40 2045 ) 2065 2.3 ( ) .(2010
41 )(2008 ).(2004
42 1300 .
43 ) .(2010
/ / / .2000
1970 2000 .
44 ) .(2011 3 2 .2080
45 )(2009 )(2009 ).(2011
46 ).(2010
47 ) .(2011 2050 ) .(2
48 ) .(2010
116 1.8 2 .
49 ).(2008
50 ) .(2007 3.3 1
3 .
15
C
3-sigma events
5-sigma events
AI
ANN
AOGCM
AR4
AR5
BAU
CaCO3
CAT
CMIP5
CO2
DIVA
DJF
ECS
GCM
GDP
FPU
GFDRR
IAM
/
/ /
IEA
IPCC
ISI-MIP
JJA
MAGICC
MGIC
NH
OECD
PDSI
ppm
RCP
SCM
SLR
SRES
SREX
SSA
UNEP
UNFCCC
UNRCO
USAID
WBG
/ / /
17
18
) :(AI
.
.
) :(Biome
.
.
.
:C3/C4 .
C3 85 )
(
. C4
) (
C3
.
) :(CAT
.
) :( :
)( :
.
) :(CMIP5
20
.
.
:
C3
C3
.
.
.
) :(GCM
.
100 300.
:
.
.
19
. :
.
:
.
0 0.05 .
:
.
/ .
.2007
.2014/13
):(ISI-MIP
/ . 30
)
(.
:MAGICC
.
.
) 0.8
( :
1986 2005 0.6
1851 .1879
.
1986 2005
.
1901 2010
20
0.8 .
- .1850
.
1850 1900
1851 1879
1901
19
.
) :(RCP
.
. /
)
(
.
/
.
2.6 :
.
.
.
8.5 :
.
.
.
)( .
) (.
) :(SRES
2000
.
.
40
.
.
) :(SREX
.2012
.
:
.
) (1980-1951
)( .
3 . 3
740 . 2012
2010 3
. 5.
.
)
(
. 3
5 .
21