Estimativa de Trs Pontos

Durao
#
1
2
3
4
5

Pacote Trabalho/Atividade
Item 1
Item 2
Item 3

Item n

Mais
Provv.

Otim.

PERT
Mdia

Crtico
1
1
0
0

PERT Sigma - Clculos para o Projeto

Durao
Otimista
Mdia
Pessimista
Sigma
Trabalho
Otimista
Mdia
Pessimista
Sigma
Custos
Otimista
Mdia
Pessimista
Sigma

Pess.

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

PERT
Sigma
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

Trabalho
PERT
Varincia
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

Otim.

Mais
Provv.

Pess.

Custos

PERT
Mdia
0
0
0
0
0

PERT
Sigma
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

PERT
Varincia
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

Otim.

Mais
Provv.

Custos
Pess.

PERT
Mdia
0
0
0
0
0

PERT
Sigma
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

PERT
Varincia
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

3-Point Estimation Example

of Work Packages and Schedule Activities

Duration

#
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9

Workpackage / Activity
Develop Scope Statement
Define project team
Procure standard items
Develop system architecture
Develop system components
Integrate components
Test system
Write system handbook
Improve system handling

Most
Likely

Opt.
4
5
10
13
80
24
5
12
4

PERT Sigma Calculations for the Project

Duration
Optimistic
139 days
Mean
181 days
Pessimistic
223 days
Sigma
14 days
Work
Optimistic
1,761 hours
Mean
3,014 hours
Pessimistic
4,267 hours
Sigma
418 hours
Costs
Optimistic
108,870 $
Mean
171,900 $
Pessimistic
234,930 $
Sigma
21,010 $

6
6
12
20
103
26
9
17
8

PERT
PERT
Pess. Critical Average Sigma
11
1
7
1.2
9
1
6
0.7
15
0
0
0.0
33
1
21
3.3
157
1
108
12.8
45
1
29
3.5
16
1
10
1.8
33
0
0
0.0
16
0
0
0.0

Work
PERT
Variance
1.4
0.4
0.0
11.1
164.7
12.3
3.4
0.0
0.0

Most
Likely
Opt.
32
48
40
48
12
20
120
160
1,280
1,984
192
256
40
72
96
136
32
64

PERT
PERT
PERT
Pess. Average Sigma Varincia
88
52
9.3
87.1
72
51
5.3
28.4
48
23
6.0
36.0
232
165
18.7
348.4
3,768
2,164
414.7
171,948.4
360
263
28.0
784.0
128
76
14.7
215.1
264
151
28.0
784.0
128
69
16.0
256.0

Custos
Mais
Otim. Provv
1,600
2,400
2,000
2,400
9,000
11,000
6,000
8,000
64,000
99,200
15,000
25,000
2,000
3,600
4,800
6,800
1,600
3,200

Custos

Pess.
4,400
3,600
15,000
11,600
188,400
30,000
6,400
13,200
6,400

PERT
Mdia
2,600
2,533
11,333
8,267
108,200
24,167
3,800
7,533
3,467

PERT
Sigma
466.7
266.7
1,000.0
933.3
20,733.3
2,500.0
733.3
1,400.0
800.0

PERT
Varincia
217,777.8
71,111.1
1,000,000.0
871,111.1
429,871,111.1
6,250,000.0
537,777.8
1,960,000.0
640,000.0