Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
TwoStage FCFE Discount Model
This model is designed to value the equity in a firm, with two stages of growth, a
period of higher growth and a subsequent period of stable growth.
Assumptions
1. The firm is expected to grow at a higher growth rate in the first period.
2. The growth rate will drop at the end of the first period to the stable growth rate.
3. The free cashflow to equity is the correct measure of expected cashflows to stockholders.
The user has to define the following inputs:
1. Length of high growth period
2. Expected growth rate in earnings during the high growth period.
3. Capital Spending, Depreciation and Working Capital needs during the high growth period.
4. Expected growth rate in earnings during the stable growth period.
5. Inputs for the cost of equity.
Page
Two-Stage FCFE Discount Model
Inputs to the model
Enter length of extraordinary growth period = 5 (in years)
Do you want to enter cost of equity directly? No (Yes or No)
If yes, enter the cost of equity = (in percent)
If no, enter the inputs to the cost of equity
Beta of the stock = 1.3
Riskfree rate= 7.00% (in percent)
Risk Premium= 5.50% (in percent)
Earnings Inputs
Do you want to calculate the growth rate from fundamentals? Yes
If yes, enter the following inputs:
Net Income Currently = $1,077.00 (in currency)
Interest Expense Currently = $53.85 Last year (in currency)
Book Value of Debt = $600.00 $550.00 (in currency)
Book Value of Equity = $5,445.00 $5,130.00 (in currency)
Tax Rate on Income= 36.00% (in percent)
Page
Two-Stage FCFE Discount Model
The following will be the inputs to the fundamental growth formulation:
ROC = 19.57% D/E = 11.02% (in percent)
Retention = 93.75% Interest Rate= 8.98% (in percent)
Do you want to change any of these inputs for the high growth period? No
If yes, specify the values for these inputs (Please enter all variables)
ROC = 19.57% D/E = 11.02% (in percent)
Retention = 93.75% Interest Rate= 8.98% (in percent)
Specify weights to be assigned to each of these growth rates:
Historical Growth Rate = 10.00% (in percent)
Outside Prediction of Growth = 40.00% (in percent)
Fundamental Estimate of Growth = 50.00% (in percent)
Beta
Capital Spending, Depreciation & Working Capital
Do you want all these items to grow at the same rate as earnings ? No
If not, enter the growth rates for each of the following items:
Capital Spending Depreciation Revenues
High Growth 20% 20% 18% (in percent)
Stable Growth Do not enter Do not enter 6% (in percent)
Do you want to keep the current fraction of working capital to revenues? Yes
Specify working capital as a percent of revenues: 40% (in percent)
Do you want to use the current debt ratio as your desired mix? Yes
If no, enter the following inputs for financing mix,
Desired debt financing proportion Capital Spending (in percent)
Page
Two-Stage FCFE Discount Model
Desired debt financing proportion Working Capital (in percent)
Page
If you are going to
Aswath Damodaran
assume perpetual
Yes or No.
growth, youIf yes, ente
should
the return
answer no on equity
here and t
Two-Stage FCFE Discount Model your
makefirm
surewill have
that capin ex
perpetuity
higher thanbelow. If no
depreciat
enter cap ex as year.
in yourterminal a perc
of depreciatiion.
Output from the program
Cost of Equity = 14.15%
Proportion of Debt: Capital Spending (DR)= 9.93%
Proportion of Debt: Working Capital (DR)= 9.93%
Current Earnings per share= $4.00
Page
Two-Stage FCFE Discount Model
(Capital Spending Depreciation)*(1DR) $1.80
Change in Working Capital * (1DR) $0.90
Current FCFE $1.30
Growth Rate in Earnings per share
Growth Rate Weight
Historical Growth = 52.19% 10.00%
Outside Estimates = 19.00% 40.00%
Fundamental Growth = 19.77% 50.00%
Weighted Average 22.71%
Growth Rate in capital spending, depreciation and working capital
High Growth Stable Growth
Growth rate in capital spending = 20.00% Do not enter
Growth rate in depreciation = 20.00% Do not enter
Growth rate in revenues = 18.00% 6.00%
The FCFE for the high growth phase are shown below (upto 6 years)
1 2 3
Earnings $4.91 $6.02 $7.39
(CapExDepreciation)*(1DR) $2.16 $2.59 $3.11
Chg. Working Capital*(1DR) $1.30 $1.53 $1.81
Free Cashflow to Equity $1.45 $1.90 $2.47
Present Value $1.27 $1.46 $1.66
Growth Rate in Stable Phase = 6.00%
FCFE in Stable Phase = $5.90
Cost of Equity in Stable Phase = 13.05%
Price at the end of growth phase = $83.65
Present Value of FCFE in high growth phase = $8.40
Page
Two-Stage FCFE Discount Model
Present Value of Terminal Price = $43.16
Value of the stock = $51.56
Estimating the value of growth
Value of assets in place = $9.94
Value of stable growth = $9.57
Value of extraordinary growth = $32.05
Value of the stock = $51.56
Page
Two-Stage FCFE Discount Model
count Model
m, with two stages of growth, an initial
nt period of stable growth.
Page
Two-Stage FCFE Discount Model
el
(Yes or No)
Page
Two-Stage FCFE Discount Model
(Yes or No)
(Yes or No)
(Yes or No)
(Yes or No)
Page
Two-Stage FCFE Discount Model
Aswath Damodaran:
If you are going to
(Yes or No)
Aswath Damodaran:
assume perpetual
Yes or No.
growth, If yes,
you enter
should
the return
answer no on
hereequity
and that
your
makefirm
surewill have
that capinex is
perpetuity
higher thanbelow. If no,
depreciation
enter cap ex as year.
(in percent)
in yourterminal a percent
of depreciatiion.
Page
If you are going to
Aswath Damodaran:
assume perpetual
Yes or No.
growth, youIf yes, enter
should
the return
answer no on equity
here and that
your
makefirm
surewill have
that capin ex is Two-Stage FCFE Discount Model
perpetuity
higher thanbelow. If no,
depreciation
enter cap ex as year.
in yourterminal a percent
of depreciatiion.
rogram
Page
Two-Stage FCFE Discount Model
4 5
$9.07 $11.13
$3.74 $4.48
$2.13 $2.51
$3.20 $4.13
$1.89 $2.13
Page
Two-Stage FCFE Discount Model
Page
Two-Stage FCFE Discount Model
Page
Two-Stage FCFE Discount Model
Page
Two-Stage FCFE Discount Model
Page
Two-Stage FCFE Discount Model
Page
Two-Stage FCFE Discount Model
Page
Two-Stage FCFE Discount Model
Terminal Year
$11.79
$4.91
$0.99
$5.90
Page
Two-Stage FCFE Discount Model
Page