Racing Secrets Exposed

Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - 2
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"## rig%ts reserve&/ 0t is i##ega# to co)y1 &istri*ute1 or create &erivative wor-s fro. t%is *oo- in w%o#e or in )art/ P#ease *e aware t%at using any infor.ation in t%is *oois at your own &iscretion/ 2%e aut%or is in no way #ia*#e for any &e*ts t%at you .ay incur wit% your *etting/ P#ease note t%at ga.*#ing an& t%e use of infor.ation re#ate& to ga.*#ing is i##ega# in so.e countries/ 2%e aut%or %o#&s no res)onsi*i#ity for any rea&er using t%e infor.ation %erein w%i#e it is against t%e #oca# #aws of t%e country t%ey resi&e in/
Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - 2 ! "## $ig%ts $eserve&
CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION
(ongratu#ations on )urc%asing a co)y of 3How to Lay Favourites for a Living3/ 4%at you %ave in front of you is essentia##y a 3%ow to3 gui&e for a.assing a fortune t%roug% %orse racing/ 2%e si5e of t%at fortune &e)en&s entire#y u)on you/ So.e of you wi## rea& t%is .anua#1 an& t%in- to yourse#f 6O% t%at soun&s #i-e a great way to .a-e .oney7 *ut never act u)on it/ 4%et%er *ecause of fear or )ure #a5iness1 0 &on3t -now/ Ot%ers wi## )us% t%eir worries asi&e1 ta-e on *oar& t%e )rinci)#es it contains an& *egin to create t%e wea#t% t%ey &eserve/ 0 sincere#y %o)e you are )art of t%e secon& grou)/ Of course everyone w%o rea&s t%is *oo- wi## %ave &ifferent #eve#s of s-i## an& -now#e&ge wit%in t%e *roa& area of %orse racing ga.*#ing/ 8any of you wi## fin& yourse#f co.ing *ac- to &ifferent )arts of t%e *oo- ti.e an& ti.e again in or&er to fu##y un&erstan& an& interna#ise t%e )rinci)#es taug%t/ So w%i#st t%is *oo- %as t%e structure of a 3%ow to3 gui&e1 in t%at it contains ste) *y ste) instructions1 it s%ou#& *e note& t%at it3s .eant to *e use& as a reference/ 9ou wi## no &ou*t fin& t%at you )ic- u) so.e )arts of t%e *oo- a#.ost straig%t away w%i#st ot%er )arts re:uire severa# rea&ings/ 2%is is )erfect#y natura# an& t%e -ey is to go at your own )ace/ 0t3s no goo& %itting t%e e;c%anges *efore you %ave .astere& t%e art of #aying as t%at is a sure fire way to #ose .oney/ Of course you wi## nee& to a))#y t%e )rinci)#es in t%is *oo- in rea#-#ife e;a.)#es on t%e e;c%anges *efore you can tru#y un&erstan& an& interna#ise t%e./ 2%is is w%y 0 strong#y reco..en& t%at you *egin *y )a)er tra&ing your se#ections rat%er t%an ris-ing .oney on t%e. straig%t away/ By &oing t%is you wi## *eco.e co.forta*#e wit% #aying wit%out #osing any rea# .oney/ Due to t%e &ifferent e;)erience #eve#s of a## t%e rea&ers 0 %ave &eci&e& to structure t%is *oo- into < )arts/ 2%e first is .ore a gui&e to ga.*#ing in genera# an& wi## *e usefu# to t%e co.)#ete 3new*ies3 out t%ere/ 0n t%is section 0 wi## e;)#ain a## t%e *asics of ga.*#ing inc#u&ing o&&s an& )ercentages an& t%e notion of va#ue/ 0n t%e secon& )art of t%e *oo- 0 go on to &iscuss #aying %orses in .ore &etai#/ "#so inc#u&e& is a *asic user gui&e of Betfair to %e#) you on your way/ 0n t%e t%ir& )art 0 wi## s%ow you %ow to stu&y race car&s an& for. wit% )articu#ar reference to t%e $acing Post we*site/ 2%e fourt% )art is t%e syste. itse#f/ 0t wi## teac% you %ow to s)ot #osing favourites in
as #itt#e as %a#f an %our a &ay/ 0n t%e fift% an& fina# )art 0 offer furt%er tactics to en%ance your )rofits inc#u&ing )rofessiona# sta-ing an& *an- .anage.ent strategies/
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
(%a)ter '? 0ntro&uction///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// 3
Part 1: The Basics of Gambling.................................................................................................................................................................. 6
(%a)ter 2? @n&erstan&ing O&&s an& Percentages/................................................................................................................................ 7

(%a)ter =? 2%e Botion of Ca#ue////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// '2
Part 2: The Basics of Laying///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// 15
(%a)ter >? 4%at is LayingD/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// '6

(%a)ter <? How to use a Betting E;c%ange/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// '8
Part 3: Understanding the Racing Post
ebsite////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// 22
(%a)ter !? @n&erstan&ing t%e $ace (ar&////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// 23

(%a)ter A? @n&erstan&ing t%e Post&ata ta*#e/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// 25
(%a)ter E? Stu&ying a Horse3s $acing History////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// 27
Part !: "o# to Pic$ a Losing "orse////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// 29
(%a)ter F? Laying Horses G F#at $acing//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// =0

(%a)ter ' ? Ste) ' G Pri.ary 4arning Signs G F#at $acing/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// =2
(%a)ter ''? Ste) 2 G Eva#uating t%e O))osition//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// =6
(%a)ter '2? Ste) = G Secon&ary 4arning Signs G F#at $acing/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// =7
(%a)ter '=? Ste) > G Bringing 0t "## 2oget%er////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// >2
(%a)ter '>? E;a.)#e '////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// >4
(%a)ter '<? E;a.)#e 2////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// <0
(%a)ter '!? Laying Horses G Bationa# Hunt H,u.)I $acing/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// <6
(%a)ter 'A? Ste) ' G Pri.ary 4arning Signs G ,u.) $acing/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// <7
(%a)ter 'E? Ste) 2 G Eva#uating t%e O))osition//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// !2
(%a)ter 'F? Ste) = G Secon&ary 4arning Signs G ,u.) $acing/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// !3
(%a)ter 2 ? Ste) > G Bringing 0t "## 2oget%er////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// !6
(%a)ter 2'? E;a.)#e =////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// !8
Part 5: &a'imising Profits//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// 75
(%a)ter 22? Laying at t%e $ig%t Price//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// A6

(%a)ter 2=? @sing a Betting Ban-/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// A7
(%a)ter 2>? Fina# 2%oug%ts//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// A8
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P"$2 OBE? 2HE B"S0(S OF

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2%is )art is essentia##y for t%e new*ies out t%ere/ 0n t%is section 0 wi## :uic-#y go t%roug% t%e *asics of ga.*#ing inc#u&ing o&&s an& )ercentages an& t%e i.)ortance of va#ue in *etting/ Of course even if you %ave e;)erience wit% ga.*#ing you sti## .ay fin& so.e usefu# infor.ation %ere1 an& 0 wou#& a&vise everyone to at #east s-i. rea& t%is )art/
CHAPTER 2: UNDERSTANDING ODDS AND

PERCENTAGES
O&&s are referre& to as t%e K)riceK for a %orse in a race/ 2%e *oo-.a-ers set t%e )rices accor&ing to w%at t%ey *e#ieve is t%e %orse3s c%ance of winning/ 2%e .ore #i-e#y t%ey t%in- a %orse is to win1 t%e Ks%orterK t%e %orse3s )rice wi## *e/ 2%at is to say t%e s.a##er t%e return wi## *e for a )unter w%o *ac-s t%e %orse to win/ For e;a.)#e if a %orse is )rice& at >L' t%en t%e *oo-ie is saying t%at if t%at e;act race was run < ti.es t%at %orse wou#& win it once/ Or to )ut it anot%er way t%e %orse %as a 2 M c%ance of winning/ 2%ere are t%ree &ifferent ways o&&s can *e )resente&/ De)en&ing on w%ic% .ar-et t%e *oo-.a-er targets/ O&&s are )resente& *y eit%er t%e Britis%1 Euro)ean or ".erican stan&ar&/ British - Fra ti!"a# O$$s 2%e tra&itiona# Britis% way is to &escri*e t%e o&&s as a fraction e/g <L' or KFive to OneK/ 4%en t%e first figure is %ig%er t%an t%e secon& it is ca##e& Ko&&s againstK/ 2%e a.ount won wi## *e greater t%an t%e origina# sta-e/ For e;a.)#e if t%e o&&s offere& were <L' t%en for every N' sta-e& you wou#& win N</ 4%en t%e first figure is s.a##er t%an t%e secon& it is ca##e& Ko&&s onK an& t%e a.ount of winnings wi## *e s.a##er t%an t%e sta-e/ For e;a.)#e if t%e o&&s offere& were >L! t%en for every N! sta-e& you wou#& win N>/ Be#ow is an e;a.)#e of an on-#ine race car& using Britis% O&&sO
E%r!&'a" - D' i(a# O$$s @n#i-e t%e Britis% fractions t%e Euro)ean syste. &ea#s in &eci.a#s/ 2%e figure :uote& is t%e return a )unter receives Hinc#u&ing t%e sta-eI *ase& on a *et of ' unit/ 2o transfer fro. Britis% o&&s to Euro)ean o&&s si.)#y &ivi&e t%e first nu.*er *y t%e secon& nu.*er an& a&& '/ So o&&s of <L' *eco.e ! H< P ' Q ' R !I an& o&&s of >L! *eco.e '/!A H> P ! Q ' R '/!AI 2%e *etting e;c%anges a## use t%e Euro)ean o&&s syste. so it is so.et%ing you are going to %ave to #earn to recognise/ Be#ow is an e;a.)#e of an on-#ine race car& using Euro)ean O&&sO
A('ri a" O$$s 2%e ".erican syste. is &ifferent again an& is t%e .ost co.)#icate& &ue to o&&s *eing eit%er )ositive or negative/ 2%e syste. is *ase& on 6evens7 H'L'I *eing e;)resse& as ' / / 0f an event is o&&s on t%en t%e figure is )rece&e& *y a .inus 6-7 an& re)resents t%e a.ount you %ave to sta-e in or&er to win ' units/ 0f an event %as o&&s greater t%an evens t%en it is a )ositive figure an& re)resents t%e a.ount you win for every ' units sta-e&/ Don3t worry if you &on3t un&erstan& t%is co.)#ete#y/ 4e wi## not *e &ea#ing in ".erican o&&s in any way/ Be#ow is an e;a.)#e of an on-#ine race car& using ".erican O&&sO
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Ta)#' !* O$$s a"$ P'r '"ta+'s.
U( 2LA =L' 'L= >L'' 2L< >LF 'L2 EL'< >LA EL'= 2L= EL'' >L< <L! FL' 'L' 2'L2 ''L' ' LF !L< <L> '=L' 2AL2 ''LE AL< =L2 EL< '=LE 'AL' AL> )UR '/2F '/= '/== '/=! '/> '/>> '/< '/<= '/<A '/!< '/!A '/A= '/E '/E= '/F 2/ 2/ < 2/' 2/'' 2/2 2/2< 2/= 2/=< 2/=A 2/> 2/< 2/! 2/!2 2/A 2/A< U*+ -=< -== -= -2A< -2< -22< -2 -'F -'< -'!' -'< -'=A -'2< -'2 -''' -'' ' ' < '' ''' '2 '2< '= '=< '=A '> '< '! '!2 'A 'A< , AA/E A!/A A</ U( FL< '<LE 'FL' )UR 2/E 2/EA 2/F =/ =/' =/2 =/2< =/= =/> =/< =/! =/A =/A< =/E >/ >/== >/< </ </< !/ !/< A/ A/< E/ E/< F/ F/< ' / ''/ '2/ '=/ U*+ 'E 'EA 'F 2 2' 22 22< 2= 2> 2< 2! 2A 2A< 2E = === =< > >< < << ! !< A A< E E< F ' '' '2 , U( )UR '</ 'A/ 'F/ 2'/ 2=/ 2!/ 2F/ =>/ >'/ <'/ !A/ E'/ U*+ '> '! 'E 2 22 2< 2E == > < !! E ' , !/!A </EE </2! >/A! >/=< =/E< =/>< 2/F> 2/>> '/F! '/>F '/2= /FF
=</A' '>L' =>/AE '!L' =>/>E 'EL' ==/== 2 L' =2/2! 22L' ='/2< 2<L' = /AA 2EL' = /= ==L' 2F/>' > L' 2E/<A < L' 2A/AE !!L' 2A/ = E L' 2!/!A ' 2!/=2 2</ 2=/ E 22/22 2 / 'E/'E '!/!A '</=E '>/2F '=/== '2/< ''/A! ''/'' ' /<= ' / F/ F E/== A/!F
A=/== 2L' A'/>= 2'L' !F/2= ''L< !!/!A FL> !</< !'/F ! / 2=L' <L2 '=L< !=/!> '2L<
<A/EF 2AL' <</<! ''L> <>/<< '>L< <2/!= =L' <2/=E ' L= < / AL2 >E/AE >L' >A/!2 FL2 >A/=A <L' ></>< ''L2 >>/>> !L' >=/>E '=L2 >2/<< AL' >2/'' '<LE >'/!A EL' > / =E/' 'AL2 ' L' =E/>! FL' =A/ > ''L' =!/=! '2L'
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CHAPTER ,: THE NOTION OF -ALUE
2%e notion of va#ue is wi&e#y un&eresti.ate& in t%e wor#& of ga.*#ing *y a#.ost everyone *ar t%e )rofessiona#s/ 0t is t%e very reason t%at *oo-.a-ers are a*#e to )rofit on every %orse in every race/ Let .e e;)#ain/ 0f a %orse3s rea# c%ance of winning is FL' t%en it .eans t%at if t%at %orse was a##owe& to run t%at e;act sa.e race ten ti.es it wou#& win once/ 2%e ot%er nine ti.es it wou#& #ose/ 0f you )ut N' on t%e %orse for eac% of t%ose ten races you wou#& invest N' in tota#/ For t%e one race t%at t%e %orse won you wou#& receive N' *ac- fro. t%e *oo-.a-ers Hinc#u&ing NF )rofit an& t%e N' sta-e returne&I/ So as you can see in t%e #ong run you wou#& *rea- even/ Bow i.agine t%at sa.e %orse1 wit% it3s FL' c%ance of winning1 was )rice& at '<L' *y a *oo-.a-er/ Bow for t%ose ten races your invest.ent wou#& sti## *e N' / But your return on t%at one winning race wou#& now *e N'! Hinc#u&ing N'< )rofit an& t%e N' sta-e returne&I/ 2%is .eans you wi## %ave .a&e N! )ure )rofit or .ore i.)ressive#y a ! M return on invest.ent/ Of course t%e e;a.)#e a*ove is very si.)#istic *ut t%e .o&e# wor-/ Having va#ue in your )rofits is t%e on#y way to rea) #ong ter. )rofits/ Bow i.agine %ow .any ti.es a *oo-.a-er wi## .a-e a .ista-e on one of its )rices/ 2%in- of t%e resources avai#a*#e to La&*ro-es for e;a.)#e/ 2%ey %ave tea.s of e;)erts stu&ying t%e for. of every %orse in every race1 not to .ention t%e co.)uter )rogra.s t%at can crunc% years of &ata in secon&s/ "n& a## )itte& against you G t%e )unter/ Bow &o you see %ow %ar& it is to *eat t%e *oo-.a-erD 2%is is e;act#y t%e reason w%y so few )eo)#e can earn a #iving fro. ga.*#ing/ Furt%er.ore t%e .aSority of )eo)#e #i-e to *et on favourites *ecause t%ey *e#ieve t%is wi## give t%e. a *etter stri-e rate %ence *etter )rofits/ But guess w%atD 2%e favourites offer t%e worst va#ue out of every %orse in t%e fie#&/ Let .e e;)#ain/ 4%en )ricing u) %orses t%e *oo-.a-ers inc#u&e& an over roun& on every %orse so t%at eac% one re)resents va#ue for t%e./ 2o )ut it anot%er way t%e *oo-.a-er wants to *e certain t%at of .a-ing a )rofit in every race/ 0t3s u) to t%e )unter to fin& a %orse t%at t%e *oo-ie %as )rice& u) wrong#y an& w%ic% offers va#ue/
'2
Cery toug% to &o/ Boo-.a-ers wor- in )ercentages/ Bow if t%e )ercentage of a## t%e runners in any given race )ut toget%er is *e#ow ' M t%en t%eoretica##y we can *ac- every %orse in t%at race an& *e guarantee& a )rofit/ Of course t%is never %a))ens/ Be#ow is a screen )rint of a recent race at LeicesterO
"s you can see t%e tota# starting )rice is ''<M/ 4%ic% .eans if we *ac-e& every %orse in t%e race t%e *oo-.a-er is guarantee& a '<M )rofit/ 2%at sai& so.e %orses in t%at race wi## %ave *een va#ue *ets/ 0f we #oo- at t%e o&&s we can see t%at t%e race invo#ve& a s%ort )rice& favourite/ Bow t%is favourite &i&n3t even get a )#ace so we can assu.e it wasn3t a goo& favourite at a##/ 2%e reason it was a s%ort )rice was *ecause c#ue#ess )unters )ut .oney on it &riving its )rice &own/ 2%is is t%e -ey )oint - its .h'" th' &%"t'rs start &%tti"+ (!"'/ !" h!rs's that th' 0a#%' a h!rs' !**'rs ha"+'s th' (!st/ "s 0 sai& *efore .ost )eo)#e wi## *ac- t%e favourite/ 2%e .ore .oney t%at gets )ut on a certain %orse t%e #ower its o&&s wi## go/ Si.)#e su))#y an& &e.an&/ "s t%e )rice gets s%orter .ore an& .ore )eo)#e )ut .oney on it *ecause it is suc% a 3sure t%ing31 an& t%e )rice Sust gets #ower an& #ower/ 0t3s a vicious circ#e t%at creates #ess va#ue for t%e )unters an& .ore )rofits for t%e *oo-.a-ers/
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However since t%e a&vent of t%e *etting e;c%anges )eo)#e %ave *een a*#e to co)y t%e *oo-.a-ers an& *egin .a-ing *ets wit% va#ue a#rea&y *ui#t in/ 0n fact on t%e e;c%anges you %ave a&vantages over t%e *oo-.a-er/ 9ou &o not %ave to #ay every %orse in every race of t%e &ay/ 9ou get to %an& )ic- t%e %orses you #ay w%ic% .eans you effective#y Sust )ic- t%e crea. of t%e *oo-.a-ers *usiness to focus on/ 2%e *oo-ies %ave &one t%e %ar& wor- for you/ 9ou wi## use .y syste. to )ic- t%e favourites wit% t%e #east c%ance of winning/ 2%en you si.)#y watc% t%e c#ue#ess )unters &rive t%e )rices &own w%ic% in turn gives you .ore an& .ore va#ue in your *ets/ 4it% t%is strategy you are guarantee& va#ue in a## your *ets an& as suc% are guarantee& #ong ter. )rofits/ 0n t%e ne;t section 0 wi## &iscuss t%e )rocess of #aying in .ore &etai#/
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P"$2 24O? 2HE B"S0(S OF

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0n t%is section 0 wi## e;)#ain t%e conce)t of #aying in .ore &etai#/ 2o #ay %orses you nee& to use a *etting e;c%ange an& so 0 %ave inc#u&e& a s%ort gui&e to Betfair1 w%ic% is t%e e;c%ange you wi## .ost #i-e#y *e using/
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CHAPTER 1: 2HAT IS LA3ING?
Laying %orses is not as co.)#icate& as you .ig%t t%in-/ 0t certain#y isn3t as co.)#icate& as .any )eo)#e wi## #et you *e#ieve/ Laying a %orse is #i-e ta-ing on t%e ro#e of t%e *oo-ie/ 0t is si.)#y *etting t%at a %orse won3t win/ So if you #ay a %orse an& it #oses t%e race your *ets wins/ 0f you #ay a %orse an& it wins t%e race your *et #oses/ Lets run t%roug% a :uic- e;a.)#e so you un&erstan& t%is fu##y/ 4e #ay a %orse ca##e& 8y Sa##y at o&&s of =/ 0f 8y Sa##y wins we %ave to )ay out N2 0f 8y Sa##y #oses we win N' "s you can see t%e #ower t%e o&&s t%e #ess we %ave to )ay out/ 2%is is w%y .y syste. focuses on #aying s%ort )rice& favourites/ 0t offers us .uc% #ess of a ris- an& %ig%er va#ue/ 2o #ay a %orse you %ave to use *etting e;c%ange/ @n#i-e tra&itiona# *etting w%ere t%ere is a *oo-.a-er w%o sets t%e o&&s an& )unters w%o eit%er ta-e t%e offere& o&&s or wa#- away1 a *etting e;c%ange is si.)#y a we*site w%ere visitors can *et against ot%er visitors on a range of events/ "## *ets on t%e e;c%ange %ave *een )#ace& t%ere *y users w%o eit%er want to )#ace a *et in t%e nor.a# way H*ac-I1 or offer o&&s to ot%er )unters H#ayI/ Bets are .atc%e& *etween )eo)#e wit% o))osing views/ ,ust as e*ay .atc%es u) *uyers an& se##ers via t%e internet1 *etting e;c%anges3 .atc%es u) custo.ers w%o want to stri-e a wager/ 9ou never -now w%o you are *etting against1 your )rivacy an& t%e confi&entia#ity of your *ets is .aintaine& *y a secure site/ 2o *eco.e a .e.*er you si.)#y %ave to register a &e*it or cre&it car& an& )#ace so.e fun&s into your account/ Once you %ave &one t%is you can start to use t%e account straig%t away/ 2%ere are a nu.*er of *etting e;c%anges avai#a*#e on t%e internet/ Be#ow 0 %ave #iste& a nu.*er of e;c%anges an& t%eir @$L3s/ Betfair is *y far t%e *iggest *etting e;c%ange in t%e .ar-et)#ace/ 0t is t%e one 0
H2L' in Eng#is% o&&sI for N'
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almost always use as it has the most liquidity available.
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Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - 2006 All Rights Reserved 17
CHAPTER 5: HO2 TO USE A BETTING

E5CHANGE
2%e fo##ow instructions are &esigne& to %e#) you )#ace #ay *ets using a *etting e;c%ange/ 2%e user gui&e uses Betfair as an e;a.)#e as it is t%e e;c%ange you are .ost #i-e#y to use/ 0f you %aven3t registere& you wi## nee& to c#ic- on t%e 3,oin Bow3 *utton an& fi## in your &etai#s/ 0f you %ave si.)#y fi## in your userna.e an& )asswor& an& c#ic- 3Login3/
2%e #eft %an& si&e of t%e front )age wi## #oo- #i-e t%is1 an& is a #ist of a## t%e &ifferent s)orts covere&/ (#ic- on 3Horse $acing G 2o&ays (ar&3 for a #ist of a## t%e races co.ing u) on t%at &ay/ Of course if you are #aying t%e nig%t *efore t%e race you wi## c#ic- on 3Horse $acing3
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2%e #ist of s)orting o)tions wi## c%ange to s%ow a #ist of %orse races for t%e &ay1 %a))ening a## over t%e wor#&1 sorte& *y ti.e Si.)#y scro## &own an& fro. t%e #ist of races c#ic- on t%e race you are #aying in/ Se#ect t%e race *y 2i.e an& (ourse/ Do not se#ect t%e race .eeting to )#ace as we are on#y *etting on t%e %orse not to win/
'F
2%e race .eeting wi## co.e u) on t%e screen an& wi## #oo- confusing at first *ut it is :uite straig%t forwar&/
2o t%e #eft we %ave t%e na.e of t%e %orse in *o#& an& t%e Soc-ey3s na.e un&erneat%/ 2%e first t%ree co#u.ns of nu.*ers after t%e %orses3 na.es s%ow t%e o&&s for *ac-ing t%e %orse to win1 wit% t%e *est o&&s in t%e *#ue s:uares/ 2%e &eci.a# figures are t%e o&&s an& t%e figures in )oun&s are t%e a.ount avai#a*#e to *et wit%/ Basica##y t%is .eans so.eone e#se %as #ai& t%e %orse at t%is )rice wit% t%e a.ount of .oney s%own *e#ow/ 2%ey are waiting for so.eone to acce)t t%eir offer/ 0gnore t%ese as we are not *ac-ing t%e %orses/ 2%e secon& set of t%ree co#u.ns s%ow t%e o&&s for t%e %orses #osing Hi/e/ #ay *etsI/ "gain t%e *est o&&s are %ig%#ig%te& in t%e )in- s:uares/ "s *efore t%e &eci.a# figures are t%e o&&s an& t%e figures in )oun&s are t%e a.ount avai#a*#e to *et wit%/ Basica##y t%is .eans so.eone e#se is re:uesting an o))ortunity to *et a certain a.ount at t%eir )referre& o&&s an& is waiting for an offer to #ay at t%at )rice/
(#ic- on t%e *est o&&s Hin t%e )in- s:uareI for t%e %orse you %ave se#ecte& to #ay/ 2%e rig%t %an& si&e of t%e we*site wi## now c%ange1 s%owing t%e %orse3s na.e1 t%e o&&s se#ecte& an& as-ing for t%e *ac-ers sta-e as fo##ows?
9ou can c%ange t%e o&&s to w%atever )rice you are co.forta*#e offering 2y)e in t%e a.ount you want to #ay t%e %orse for in t%e 3Bac-er3s Sta-e3 *o; an& Betfair wi## auto.atica##y wor- out your #ia*i#ity Hi/e/ 2%e a.ount you stan& to #ose if t%e %orse winsI/ For a&vice on w%at o&&s to set an& t%e a.ount to sta-e )#ease see t%e c%a)ters 3Laying at t%e $ig%t Price3 an& 3@sing a Betting Ban-3 #ater in t%is .anua#/ Once you %ave &one t%at c#ic- on su*.it in t%e *otto. rig%t %an& corner of t%e )age/ 9ou wi## t%en *e as-e& to confir. your *et/ (#ic- on yes if you are %a))y wit% it/ 2%e screen wi## now c%ange to s%ow w%et%er or not your *et %as *een .atc%e&/ 0f t%e *et %as *een .atc%e&1 t%en t%e *et is )#ace& an& you on#y %ave to wait for t%e resu#ts/ 0f t%e *et is un.atc%e& you %ave severa# o)tions? 9ou .ay wait to see if so.eone e#se co.es a#ong w%o is )re)are& to acce)ts t%e o&&s you %ave s)ecifie&/ 9ou can c%ange t%e o&&s in or&er to .atc% a *ac-er w%o is offering &ifferent o&&s/ Or you can cance# t%e *et/ 0t is a#so )ossi*#e for your *et to *e )art-.atc%e&/ 2%is is w%ere so.e of your sta-e %as *een .atc%e& wit% a *ac-er1 *ut so.e %as not/ @sing Betfair is re#ative#y easy once you get use& to it/ 0f you are sti## unsure of anyt%ing t%en Betfair offers co.)re%ensive on#ine %e#)/ For an easy to fo##ow user gui&e si.)#y go to t%e Betfair we*site1 c#ic- on t%e %e#) .enu an& t%en on t%e view our &e.o *utton/
2'
P"$2 2H$EE:
@BDE$S2"BD0BJ 2HE $"(0BG
POS2 4EBS02E
0n t%is section 0 wi## &etai# %ow to navigate aroun& t%e $acing Post3s we*site/ "## t%e infor.ation *e#ow is a#so avai#a*#e in t%e Dai#y racing Post news)a)er/ 0 )refer to use t%e we*site *ut of course it is u) to you w%at you use/ 0f you are )ic-ing your se#ections t%e nig%t *efore t%en you wi## nee& to use t%e we*site/ 2%e we*site can *e visite& *y c#ic-ing on t%e #in- T %tt)?LLwww/racing)ost/co/u"#t%oug% ot%er )a)ers inc#u&e race car&s in t%eir %orse racing sections we wi## not *e using t%e./ 2%ey &o not contain enoug% infor.ation for us to confi&ent#y )ic- a #osing %orse/
22
CHAPTER 6: UNDERSTANDING RACE CARDS
Once you enter t%e .ain site you wi## nee& to register to get access to t%e usefu# infor.ation/ 2%is is an easy )rocess an& s%ou#& on#y ta-e a .inute or two/ 2o see t%e race car&s si.)#y c#ic- on t%e re#evant &ate in t%e to) #eft %an& corner of t%e screen/ 2%en on t%e rig%t %an& si&e towar&s t%e *otto. of t%e screen you can )ic- t%e .eeting you want to *rowse t%roug%/ Once you %ave &one t%at an& c#ic-e& on a s)ecific race you wi## *e )resente& wit% a screen si.i#ar to t%e one *e#ow/
'/ '=/
2/ =/ A/ >/ E/ </ !/ ''/ '2/ F/ ' /
'/ 2%is *o; contains &etai#s a*out t%e race itse#f. 0n t%e centre of t%e *o; is t%e tit#e of t%e race1 fo##owe& *y t%e grou) c#ass an& t%e age #i.it of t%e %orses e#igi*#e to run/ @n&erneat% t%e tit#e are t%e &etai#s of t%e )ri5e .oney avai#a*#e for t%e race/ On t%e #eft %an& si&e of t%is *o; are t%e ti.e of t%e race an& t%e
2=
nu.*er of runners in t%e race/ On t%e rig%t %an& si&e of t%e *o; you wi## fin& t%e race &istance an& t%e going/ 2/ 2%e nu.*er of t%e %orse on t%e race car& Ha#so s%own on t%e %orse3s sa&&#ec#ot%I fo##owe& *y t%e nu.*er of t%e &raw Ht%e sta## fro. w%ic% it %as *een &rawn to runI/ =/ 2%e for. of t%e %orse Hit3s .ost recent #ast runI/ " &as% in&icates t%e start of t%e current season1 *o#& ty)e in&icates a resu#t on a &ifferent surface to to&ay3s race1 e; in&icates an a&&itiona# weig%t )ena#ty to *e carrie&1 & in&icates &is:ua#ifie&/ >/ 2%e %orse3s na.e an& country of *irt% if not Britis%/ </ 2%e nu.*er of &ays since t%e %orse3s #ast run/ !/ "&&itiona# infor.ation on t%e %orse. D R &istance winner1 ( R course winner1 (D R *ot% course an& &istance winner1 BF R *eaten favourite/ A/ "ge of t%e %orse H%orse3s *irt%&ays are officia##y &ee.e& to occur on t%e 'st of ,anuary in t%e year of t%eir *irt%I/ E/ 2%e officia# weig%t t%e %orse .ust carry Hstones an& )oun&sI in t%is )articu#ar race/ t R tongue tie1 v R visore&1 * R *#in-ere&1 eLs R eye s%ie#&s1 ' R 'st ti.e wearing %ea&gear/ F/ 2%e Soc-ey3s na.e wit% any weig%t a##owances &ue to age or ine;)erience e;)resse& in )oun&s Hto *e &e&ucte& fro. t%e officia# weig%tI/ ' /2%e $acing Post3s own rating of t%e %orse/ ''/2%e actua# weig%t t%e %orse wi## usua##y *e e;)ecte& to carry accor&ing to it3s officia# %an&ica) rating Hnot inc#u&ing any a##owances for t%e Soc-ey or )ena#ties etcI/ '2/Forecast of t%e #i-e#y Starting Price o&&s for eac% %orse/ '=/2%e $acing Post3s ana#ysis of t%e #i-e#y outco.e/
2>
CHAPTER 7: UNDERSTANDING THE

POSTDATA TABLE
@n&erneat% t%e car& t%ere is t%e Post&ata ta*#e/ 2%is is a very usefu# too# for :uic-#y c%ec-ing t%e a*i#ity of a %orse/
'/ 2/ =/ >/ </ !/
A/ E/ F/ ' / ''/ '2/
'/ 2%e $acing Post3s own rating for eac% %orse/ 2/ 2o)s)ee& G 2%e $acing Post3s own assess.ent of eac% in&ivi&ua# %orse3s race s)ee&/ =/ Officia# rating G 2%e officia# %an&ica))er3s rating of eac% in&ivi&ua# %orse3s race s)ee&/ >/ 2%e na.e of t%e %orse/ </ 2%e $acing Post3s own ana#ysis of t%e trainer3s current for./ One tic- R in for. 2wo tic-s R in very goo& for. D R for. o)en to :uestion X Rout of for. - R no runners #ast '> &ays !/ 2%e $acing Post3s own ana#ysis of t%e %orse3s a*i#ity on t%e re#evant going/
2<
One tic- R )roven for. on forecast going or on easyLfast groun& if going is softLfir. 2wo tic-s R )roven for. on forecast going of softL%eavy or fir.L%ar& D R un)roven on forecast going - R &e*ut A/ 2%e $acing Post3s own ana#ysis of t%e %orse3s a*i#ity to co)e wit% t%e race &istance/ One tic- R )roven for. aroun& t%is &istance D R un)roven aroun& t%is &istance - R &e*ut E/ 2%e $acing Post3s own ana#ysis of t%e %orse3s a*i#ity over t%e race course/ One tic- R )roven for. on t%is course 2wo tic-s R two or .ore course wins D R un)roven on t%is course - R &e*ut F/ 2%e $acing Posts own ana#ysis of t%e effects of t%e &raw/ One tic- R goo& &raw 2wo tic-s R very goo& &raw X R *a& &raw - R &raw neit%er goo& nor *a& ' / 2%e $acing Post3s own ana#ysis of t%e %orse3s a*i#ity/ One tic- R so.e for. wit%in #ast year 2wo tic-s R P8 or 2S rating wit%in A#* of P8 to) 2%ree tic-s R P8 an& 2S *ot% wit%in A#* of P8 to) D R #ast run .ore t%an a year ago "BD no P8 rating X R no a&e:uate for. - R &e*ut ''/ 2%e $acing Post3s own assess.ent of t%e %orse3s .ost recent for./ One tic- R So.e for wit%in t%e #ast ! &ays 2wo tic-s R P8 or 2S rating wit%in A#* of P8 to) ac%ieve& wit%in #ast ! &ays
D R #ast run .ore t%an ! &ays ago
- R &e*ut '2/ 2%e %orse w%ic% scores %ig%est on t%e Post&ata ta*#e
2!
CHAPTER 7: STUD3ING A HORSE8S RACING

HISTORY
2o *ring u) a &etai#e& %istory of a %orse3s races si.)#y c#ic- on t%e %orse3s na.e in eit%er t%e race car& or t%e Post&ata ta*#e/ " new win&ow &etai#e& *e#ow wit% o)en u)/
'/
2/ =/
>/
</
'/ 2%e na.e of t%e %orse/ 2/ Detai#s of t%e %orse3s fa.i#y tree/ =/ 2%e #ifeti.e recor& for t%e %orse3s races/ >/ 2%e $acing Post3s ana#ysis of t%e %orse3s c%ances in t%e race/ </ 2%is *o; &etai#s every race t%e %orse %as co.)ete& in. 0t gives us usefu# infor.ation a*out t%e %orses a*i#ities at &ifferent surfaces an& &istances/
2A
2o *ring u) t%e &etai#e& resu#ts of an in&ivi&ua# race si.)#y c#ic- on t%e re#evant #ine in t%e race outco.e co#u.n/ " new win&ow &etai#e& *e#ow wi## o)en u)/
2%is )age is usefu# for t%e ana#ysis t%at t%e $acing Post )rovi&es/ 0t .ay )rovi&e infor.ation w%ic% wi## u#ti.ate#y &eci&e w%et%er we #ay t%e %orse or not/
2E
PART FOUR: HO2 TO PIC9 A

LOSING HORSE
2o )ut it si.)#y we are #oo-ing for 3fa#se favourites3/ 2%at is a %orse t%at t%e *etting )u*#ic is )utting .oney *e%in& *ut w%ic% we t%in- wi## not win/ 4e wi## &o t%is *y #oo-ing at i.)ortant &ata t%at t%e .aSority of )eo)#e &on3t *ot%er wit%/ 2%ere are #itera##y a %un&re& factors t%at affect t%e outco.e of a %orse race/ So.e )eo)#e s)en& %ours an& %ours stu&ying as .any of t%ese as )ossi*#e an& sti## &on3t get anyw%ere/ 2%e .aSority of t%e )unters1 0 ca## s%ee)1 *ase everyt%ing on for./ "nyt%ing fro. E -F M of a )rice is going to *e *ase& on recent for./ 2%is is no coinci&ence/ 2%e *oo-.a-ers -now t%at .ost of t%e .oney *et *y )unters is *ase& on for. in so.e way/ Furt%er to t%is .e&ia )un&its an& news)a)ers ti)sters are o*sesse& wit% for./ 9ou3## often see a so ca##e& e;)ert on 2C going on a*out a %orse t%at %as great for./ Punters see an& rea& t%is an& it sways t%eir *etting o)inion/ "## t%is .eans is t%at if a %orse is running we## it wi## *e .assive#y over*et *y t%e )u*#ic an& t%ere is va#ue to *e %a& in #aying it/ " %orses3 6for.7 is si.)#y a recor& of a %orses3 recent )erfor.ances/ Basica##y %as t%e %orse *een running we## #ate#yD 4%i#st it is o*vious#y an i.)ortant factor in t%e race outco.e1 it is certain#y not t%e *e a## an& en& a##/ For e;a.)#e a %orse t%at won #ast ti.e out wi## a#ways *e over*et/ Bow 03. not saying t%at for. &oesn3t count an& 03. certain#y not suggesting you #ay every %orse t%an won #ast ti.e out/ "not%er reason so.e %orse3s are 3fa#se favourites3 are *ecause of t%eir sta*#e connections/ 2%is wi## usua##y *e t%e case in races w%ere t%e %orses are ine;)erience&/ So t%e #a5y )unter wi## si.)#y )ut %is .oney on t%e %orse wit% t%e .ost %ig% )rofi#e Soc-ey or trainer/ 4e1 %owever1 %ave to &e#ve a #itt#e &ee)er an& stu&y t%e .ain factors *eyon& for. t%at affect t%e resu#t of a race/ 2%ere are two ty)es of %orse racing in t%e @/+/ - F#at $acing an& Bationa# Hunt H,u.)I $acing/
2F
CHAPTER :: LA3ING HORSES ; FLAT

RACING
2%ese races are run over &istances ranging fro. < fur#ongs H<LE .i#e or ' .I to 20
fur#ongs H2 U .i#es or > .I an& are starte& fro. sta##s/ "s t%e na.e suggests
t%ere are no o*stac#es in f#at racing/ 2%e f#at season runs fro. .i&-8arc% to .i&-
Bove.*er a#t%oug% f#at races &o sti## ta-e )#ace in t%e winter/ F#at %orses .ature
:uic-#y an& start running as 2 or =-year-o#&s.
F#at races are eit%er run on turf or "## 4eat%er H"4I trac-s/ 2%e "4 trac-s are
co.)rise& of san& an& are a co.)#ete#y &ifferent -ett#e of fis% to t%e turf trac-s.
2%ere are two ty)es of races on t%e f#at G Sta-es an& Han&ica)s.
0n sta-es a## t%e %orses carry t%e sa.e weig%t/ However in %an&ica)s t%e %orses a#l
carry &ifferent weig%ts/ 2%e weig%t a %orse carries is *ase& on t%eir a*i#ity w%ic% is
assesse& *y t%e officia# %an&ica))er/ 2%e %ig%est rate& %orse carries t%e .ost weig%t
an& t%e one at t%e *otto. carries t%e #east/ 2%eoretica##y every %orses %as t%e sa.e
c%ance of winning.
2%e favourites on#y win a*out 2EM of %an&ica) races/ 2%is gives us )#enty of sco)e
for #aying/ Even .ore i.)ressive are t%e stats for o&&s-on favourites in %an&icap
races.
Statistics s%ow t%at if you %a& 3#aye&3 every o&&s-on favourite in %an&ica)s for t%e #ast
' years you wou#& %ave .a&e a 2 M return on your invest.ent/ 2%is is a staggering
statistic an& is &own to t%e )u*#ic over*etting on t%e favourite an& guaranteeing you
va#ue.
2%ere are a#so &ifferent ty)es of races &e)en&ing on t%e :ua#ity of t%e fie#&/ 4e wi#l
*e #oo-ing to #ay %orses in a## t%ese races.
<ai$'"s G 2%ese are for %orses t%at %ave never won a race *efore.
C!"$iti!"s Ra 's G Once a %orse %as won a .ai&en it can co.)ete in con&itions
races/ 2%ese are for winners of a race or winners of races of a certain va#ue.
List'$ Ra 's G Once a %orse %as won a con&itions race it can *e entere& into a #isted
race.
Gr!%& Ra 's G 2%ese are t%e .ost )restigious races for a %orse on t%e f#at/ 2%ere are
t%ree grou)s '1 2 an& =/ Jrou) ' races are t%e .ost )restigious an& carry t%e .ost
)ri5e .oney.
Ot%er ty)es of races inc#u&eO "uction races1 (#ai.ing races1 an& Se##ing races/ 4E DO BO2 L"9 "B9 HO$SES 0B 2HESE $"(ES/ 2%is is *ecause t%e %orses invo#ve& are .e&iocre at *est an& it is very %ar& to *e sure of #aying t%e favourite/
='
CHAPTER 1=: STEP 1 ; PRI<AR3 2ARNING

SIGNS ; FLAT RACING
Bow 0 a. going to ta-e you t%roug% t%e essentia# &etai#s to #oo- at w%en &eci&ing w%ic% %orse to #ay/ 2%e five factors *e#ow are t%e )ri.ary varia*#es you wi## nee& to assess t%e favourite on/ 4e nee& our %orse to %ave a :uestion .ar- concerning it3s a*i#ity on at #east one of t%ese factors/ PRI<AR3 2ARNING SIGNS G-./G 2%e going si.)#y &escri*es w%at t%e groun& con&itions are #i-e on t%e course/ 2%e &escri)tions are as fo##owsO %eavy1 soft1 goo&-to-soft1 goo&1 goo&-to-fir. an& fir./ 2%e going is a very i.)ortant factor in any %orse race/ So.e %orses can run e:ua##y we## on any ty)e of going *ut .any %ave a )reference/ 4%at we are on t%e #oo- out for is a favourite w%o %as never run on a )articu#ar going *efore Ht%is wi## usua##y *e in .ai&en racesI1 or a favourite wit% a )oor recor& on t%at )articu#ar going/ 2%is %a))ens .ore regu#ar#y t%an you .ig%t t%in-/ 9ou3## often see a %orse t%at %as *een in s)ar-#ing for. on soft trac-s *eing favourite on a fir. surface an& *eing soun&#y *eaten/ " #ot of )unters negate to c%ec- even t%is si.)#e factor/ BOB@S 20P G 2%e softer t%e groun& t%e *etter it is for us #ayers/ 0t is we## -nown t%at favourites win a %ig%er )ercentage of races w%en t%ere is fir. in t%e groun&/ 0f t%e going is goo&-fir. or fir. t%en we nee& ot%er factors to go in our favour if we are to #ay any %orses/ 2%e %eavier t%e going t%e .ore ran&o. t%e resu#ts ten& to *e/ 0.*T+/1) "#ong wit% t%e going1 &istance is t%e .ost i.)ortant factor in a %orse race/ So.e %orses are *etter at s)rinting w%i#st ot%ers %ave .ore sta.ina an& )refer #onger races/ "s a genera# ru#e %orses start off in t%e s)rints an& .ove u) in &istance/ 9ou nee& to *e on t%e #oo- out for one of two t%ings/ First#y a %orse t%at is ste))ing u) in tri) for t%e first ti.e/ 4%i#st a %orse .ig%t %ave &one we## at t%e s%orter &istances if it is racing at a #onger &istance for t%e first ti.e it3s goo& for. can *e :uestione&/ Even at t%e s%orter s)rints a ste) u) of a fur#ong can *e significant/ Or secon&#y a %orse t%at %as a )oor recor& at t%e race3s &istance/ For e;a.)#e you
=2
.ig%t %ave a %orse wit% e;ce##ent for. over ' .i#e *ut %as %a& a cou)#e of &o&gy runs over '2 fur#ongs/ Be;t ti.e t%e %orse runs '2 fur#ongs it is a )ossi*#e #aying o))ortunity/ BOB@S 20P G (onsi&er w%at &istances a %orse %as *een running at recent#y/ Horses are ani.a#s of %a*it an& if you see a %orse running at a &ifferent &istance to its .ost recent runs it cou#& *e a #aying o))ortunity/ Jenera##y s)ea-ing a &ifference of '/< fur#ongs is enoug% for us to cast &ou*t over t%e favourite/ Of course t%is wou#&n3t *e c#asse& as a )ri.ary reason to #ay t%e %orse *ut it cou#& *e a su))#e.entary factor w%en &eci&ing w%ic% %orse to #ay/ 1L+** "s seen a*ove t%ere are &ifferent categories of race &e)en&ing on t%e :ua#ity of t%e entrants/ 4%at we are #oo-ing for is a %orse t%at is .oving u) in c#ass an& racing against *etter o))osition t%an it %as *efore/ 4%at you .ay fin& is a %orse *eing a s%ort )rice& favourite in it3s first con&itions race si.)#y *ecause it won it3s .ai&en co.forta*#y/ However it .ay we## fin& itse#f u) against %orses w%o %ave a#so won t%eir own .ai&ens/ "s we## as races *eing na.e& #i-e .ai&ens an& con&itions t%ey are a#so given a c#ass category &e)en&ing on t%e )ri5e .oney avai#a*#e/ 2%e ta*#e *e#ow su..arises t%e &ifferent c#asses for f#at races?
2L+T 1L+** *3*T)& C#s 1 Jrou) '////////////////////////// Jrou) 2////////////////////////// Jrou) =////////////////////////// Liste& inc# F!-'' C#s 2 %c)s// Heritage o)en %c)s//////// nurseries///////////////////////// E!-'' //////////////////////////// ,/!> N2 NF N< N2EN><N'E2/! N'!<NA N> N2=/<N2 N'=C#s , C#s 1 C#s 5 C#s 6 C#s 7 A!-F<///// !!-E<///// <!-A<///// >!-!<///// -< /////// ,/!> N'2/<NE/<N<N=/<inc# regiona# *an&s "-D 2/! N''NAN<N=/<N2-
2%e #ower t%e c#ass t%e *etter :ua#ity t%e %orses are an& t%e .ore )ri5e .oney avai#a*#eO (#ass ' *eing t%e *est %orses an& (#ass A t%e worst/ 4e are #oo-ing for %orses w%o are .oving u) in c#ass for t%e first ti.e/
==
2.R*T T.&) RU//)R 0f a %orse is a s%ort favourite on its first run t%en t%at is a great o))ortunity for #aying/ @sua##y t%e %orse wi## *e a 2 year o#& an& wi## *e running in a .ai&en/ 2 year o#&s are very ine;)erience& ani.a#s an& it is i.)ossi*#e to gauge %ow we## t%ey wi## react to t%eir first outing on t%e race course/ So.e %orses ta-e to races #i-e a &uc- to water w%ereas ot%ers nee& severa# races to get use& to it a##/ 2%e %orse wi## *e a s%ort favourite &ue to its sta*#e connections/ Eit%er it wi## %ave a )o)u#ar trainer or t%e owner wi## %ave )ai& a #ot of .oney for it/ ,ust *ecause it %as a ta## re)utation t%is &oes not .ean it wi## run we##/ *UR2+1) "s e;)#ain )revious#y t%e con&itions of t%e groun& %ave a %uge i.)act on a %orse3s running a*i#ity/ Hence a c%ange of surface for a %orse is a#so a *ig factor/ 0f a %orse is running on san& or turf for t%e first ti.e t%en we wi## #oo- to o))ose it if ot%er factors are a#so in our favour/ 9ou wi## often fin& a consistent )erfor.er on t%e turf *eing a favourite on its "4 &e*ut *ut fai#ing to #ive u) to its re)utation/ 0t wi## often ta-e ti.e for a %orse to fa.i#iarise itse#f wit% a new surface/ Over t%e )ast ' years #aying %orses on "4 trac-s %as *een .ore )rofita*#e t%an on t%e turf/ One .ain reason for t%is is *ecause )unters try to a))#y turf for. an& ratings to t%e a## weat%er/ 2%ey wi## over*et a favourite if it %as &one e;ce)tiona##y we## on t%e turf/ BOB@S 20P G Laying favourites on t%e "4 is .ost )rofita*#e &uring t%e winter/ 2%is is *ecause t%e f#at season %as finis%e& an& a #ot of t%e for. %orses .ove on to t%e "4 wit% goo& re)utations an& s%ort )rices1 on#y to get *eaten *ecause t%ey are not use& to t%e surface/ ).G"T 2%e weig%t t%e %orse is carrying is t%e fina# factor we nee& to assess/ 8ore often t%an not in sta-es races every %orse wi## *e carrying t%e sa.e weig%t an& any s#ig%t &ifferences are neg#igi*#e/ However it is in %an&ica)s t%at weig%t *eco.es of t%e ut.ost i.)ortance/ 4e nee&
=>
to &eci&e if t%e weig%t t%e %orse is carrying wi## affect t%e favourite in any way/ One way to &o t%is is to c%ec- w%at weig%t t%e %orse %as carrie& in )revious races/ 0f it is carrying significant#y .ore t%is ti.e aroun& t%en t%is wi## *e a :uestion .ar- over t%e %orse/ "not%er way is to rea& t%e $acing Post3s s)ot#ig%t ver&ict on t%e %orse3s c%ance in t%e race/ 0f t%e weig%t is going to *e a )ro*#e. t%ey wi## usua##y )oint t%is out/ BOB@S 20P G 4e &o not #ay favourites wit% AQ#*s )ena#ty on t%e "4 trac-s as t%ey statistica##y ten& to run we##/ TR+./)R4* 1-UR*)5 ./ P)R1)/T+G) 2%is )ri.ary warning sign is &ifferent to t%e rest in t%at it can warn us off #aying a favourite rat%er t%an *eing a factor in our favour/ 2%is is si.)#y a figure t%at s%ows w%at )ercentage a trainer wins at a )articu#ar course/ 0t can *e a rea##y i.)ortant factor in i&entifying a favourite t%at we s%ou#& not #ay/ Logic &ictates t%at eac% trainer s%ou#& %ave an a*out e:ua# )ercentage for eac% course/ But t%is is not t%e case/ @sua##y a trainer %as at #east one course w%ere it3s %orses &o *etter t%an average an& .ore often t%an not it is t%e course w%ic% is c#osest to t%e sta*#e/ 4%en a %orse is traine& near to a certain course t%e groun& it trains on wi## *e si.i#ar to t%e groun& on t%e race trac- &ue to si.i#ar weat%er1 soi# ty)es etc/ 2%is gives it an i..e&iate a&vantage over t%e rest of t%e fie#& as it is at %o.e on t%ose con&itions/ Furt%er.ore t%e trave##ing ti.e to t%e race trac- is s%ort/ Horses are notorious#y te.)era.enta# ani.a#s an& can easi#y *e unsett#e& *y #ong Sourneys to t%e tracw%ic% as you wou#& e;)ect worsens t%eir )erfor.ance/ 0 &on3t #ay any %orses w%ere t%e trainer-course )ercentage is over = M/ 0n fact so.eti.es 0 c%ose not to #ay %orses wit% a )ercentage un&er t%is/ For e;a.)#e if t%e trainer of t%e favourite %as a win )ercentage of 2<M an& t%e ne;t %ig%est for t%e race is on#y ' M 0 wi## often &isregar& t%is favourite an& #oo- at anot%er race/
=<
CHAPTER 11: STEP 2 ; E-ALUATING THE

OPPOSITION
"fter carrying out t%e first )rocess of t%e syste. you wi## %ave a #ist of )otentia# favourites to #ay/ 2%e ne;t ste) is to eva#uate t%e o))osition in t%at race/ 4%at you are #oo-ing for is at #east one ot%er %orse w%ic% #oo-s to %ave t%e a*i#ity to *eat t%e favourite/ 2o &o t%is we :uic-#y scan t%e racing %istory for eac% %orse in t%e race searc%ing for at #east one %orse wit% si.i#ar a*i#ity to t%at of t%e favourite/ Of course we &on3t want to s)en& too #ong &oing t%is as we &on3t want to fa## into t%e tra) of s)en&ing %ours rea&ing for./ 4e si.)#y want to fin& %orses wit% si.i#ar race resu#ts to t%at of t%e favourite/ Si.i#ar resu#ts inc#u&es t%e actua# finis%ing )osition of t%e %orse in its )ast races as we## as %ow .any #engt%s it won or #ost *y/ One ru#e 0 stic- to is t%at for t%ese riva# %orses to :ua#ify as a )otentia# race winner t%ey cannot %ave .ore )ri.ary warning signs against t%eir na.es t%an t%e favourite/ 2%e *est way to Su&ge a %orse3s a*i#ity is to see %ow it %as )erfor.e& in a certain c#ass/ For e;a.)#e if t%e favourite in a race %as )revious#y won races in c#ass < events1 i&ea##y we want to fin& ot%er %orses in t%at race t%at %ave a#so won c#ass < events/ Or if a favourite %as *een )#ace& *efore t%en we wou#& nee& to fin& ot%er %orses in t%e race w%o %a& *een )#ace& in si.i#ar events to t%e favourite/ 2%e *est way to un&erstan& t%is as)ect of t%e syste. is to #oo- t%roug% t%e )ractica# e;a.)#es 0 wi## ta-e you t%roug% in a .o.ent/
=!
CHAPTER 12: STEP , ; SECONDARY

2ARNING SIGNS ; FLAT RACING
2%is is t%e fina# )art of t%e syste./ Once you %ave co.)#ete& t%e first two )rocesses you .ay %ave .ore t%an one :ua#ifier/ 0 use t%e fo##owing factors to *ui#& u) a *igger )icture of eac% race w%ic% %e#)s .e &eci&e w%ic% favourite to #ay/ SECONDAR3 2ARNING SIGNS 2%ese factors are not as i.)ortant to t%e outco.e of a race as t%e )ri.ary factors *ut t%ey sti## )#ay a )art an& so nee& to *e ta-en into consi&eration/ 0+3* *./1) L+*T RU/ 2%is use& to *e a crucia# factor wit%in %orse racing *ut new an& i.)rove& training .et%o&s %ave #essene& its i.)ortance/ 4e nee& to *e on t%e #oo-out for a %orse t%at %as not run for ! &ays or is running again wit%in > &ays of it3s #ast run/ 0f a %orse %as not run wit%in ! &ays t%en it %as no &iscerni*#e for. an& it3s t%e sa.e )rinci)#e as a foot*a## )#ayer #ac-ing 3.atc% )ractice3/ However it is i.)ortant to stu&y t%e %orse3s )revious race %istory/ So.e %orses are notorious#y goo& at co.ing *ac- fro. a #ong #ay off so if a %orse %as a %istory of t%is we nee& to e;ercise caution/ 0f a %orse runs wit%in > &ays of it3s #ast run it %ere is a c%ance it .ig%t not %ave recovere& fu##y fro. its )revious efforts an& .ay #ac- sta.ina/ But again so.e %orses can run we## severa# &ays in a row so c%ec- it3s )ast race %istory to *e sure/ BOB@S 20P - 2%e e;ce)tion to t%is ru#e is races on t%e "4 trac-s/ Statistics s%ow t%at favourites returning wit%in A &ays on "4 trac-s %ave a goo& winning stri-e rate/ 0R+ 2%e &raw is si.)#y t%e starting sta## )osition of a %orse/ 2%e #ower t%e nu.*er t%e c#oser it is to t%e insi&e rai#/ On so.e trac-s t%is can *e :uite an i.)ortant factor/ Be#ow 0 %ave inc#u&e& a course-*y-course #ist t%at su.s u) t%e genera##y regar&e& o)inion of t%e &raw factor at a## t%irty-four f#at courses in Britain/
=A
"scot "yr Bat%
Bever#ey Brig%ton (ar#is#e (atteric-
(%e)stow (%ester
Doncaster
E)so. Downs
Fo#-estone Joo&woo& Ha.i#ton Hay&oc- Par+e.)ton Par-
Bo significant a&vantage1 a#t%oug% #ow nu.*ers are favoure& on t%e straig%t course in soft going/ Low nu.*ers favoure& in *ig fie#&s on t%e straig%t course1 es)ecia##y w%en t%e going is soft/ "))arent#y #itt#e effect t%oug% t%e five-fur#ong course %ere is on a gra&ua# #eft-%an& *en& w%ic% .ig%t *e t%oug%t to favour #ow nu.*ers/ Hig% nu.*ers u) to Ef-noticea*#y favoure& in <f races/ 0t see.s #ow favoure& on soft groun&/ Low nu.*ers favoure& in s)rint races *ut %ig% nu.*ers w%en t%e going is soft/ Hig% nu.*ers see. to %ave an a&vantage in races u) to one .i#e/ Over five fur#ongs #ow nu.*ers a))ear to *e favoure& e;ce)t w%en t%e groun& is soft w%en %ig% nu.*ers see. to %ave an a&vantage/ ver si; an& seven fur#ongs #ow nu.*ers are favoure&/ Bo .ar-e& a&vantage eit%er si&e/ Low &raw nu.*ers a))ear to *e favoure& in s)rints1 *ut t%e crucia# factor %ere is a :uic- *reairres)ective of t%e &raw/ Hig% nu.*ers see. to *e t%e *est on t%e straig%t course1 w%ereas #ow nu.*ers use& to %ave a noticea*#e a&vantage in *ig fie#&s w%en t%e going is soft1 *ut t%e effect is *eco.ing increasing#y &ifficu#t to )re&ict/ Hig% nu.*ers are strong#y favoure& over five fur#ongs1 a *it #ess so over si; fur#ongs/ Low nu.*ers see. *est fro. Af to ' f/ Vuite a significant a&vantage for %ig% nu.*ers in s)rint races Litt#e effect a#t%oug% )er%a)s #ow nu.*ers are *est in s)rints1 t%oug% a fast start is e:ua##y i.)ortant/ 8i&&#e to %ig% nu.*ers *est in s)rints1 es)ecia##y on soft groun&/ Hig% nu.*ers favoure& in s)rints1 es)ecia##y w%en t%e going is soft/ On t%e s)rint course a %ig% nu.*er is a&vantageous w%en sta##s are on t%e far si&e Hes)ecia##y in softer
=E
Leicester Lingfie#& Par-
8usse#*urg% Bew*ury Bewcast#e
Bew.ar-et Botting%a. Pontefract $e&car $i)on Sa#is*ury San&own Par-
Sout%we## 2%irs-
4arwic-
4e;for& 4in&sor
groun&I1 a #ow nu.*er w%en t%e sta##s are on t%e stan&s si&e/ Hig% nu.*ers usua##y *est on roun& course/ 8i&&#e to %ig% nu.*ers favoure& on t%e straig%t course/ Low nu.*ers s#ig%t#y favoure& in s)rints on t%e a##weat%er course? on t%e turf course %ig% nu.*ers a))ear to *e favoure&/ Hig% nu.*ers favoure& in races u) to Ef/ Bo significant a&vantage1 *ut )er%a)s %ig% nu.*ers *est in #arge fie#&s1 es)ecia##y in very soft groun&/ On t%e straig%t course %orses &rawn towar&s eit%er rai# see. to %ave an a&vantage w%en t%e going is nor.a#1 *ut #ow nu.*ers are es)ecia##y favoure& on t%e straig%t course in softL%eavy groun&/ Litt#e significant a&vantage over any &istance on eit%er t%e $ow#ey 8i#e or t%e ,u#y (ourse/ Hig% nu.*ers favoure& in s)rint races w%en sta##s on stan&s si&e1 #ow nu.*ers w%en sta##s on far si&e/ Low nu.*ers favoure& in s)rint races/ 8i&&#e to %ig% nu.*ers favoure& on t%e straig%t course/ Low nu.*ers a))ear favoure& on t%e straig%t course e;ce)t w%en t%e going is softL%eavy/ Low nu.*ers ten& to *e favoure& in s)rint races on soft going/ On t%e five-fur#ong course %ig% nu.*ers %ave an a&vantage w%en t%e groun& is soft an& w%en t%e sta##s are )#ace& on t%e far si&eO #ow nu.*ers are favoure& w%en t%e sta##s are on t%e stan&s si&e/ Bo a&vantage in straig%t five fur#ongs? #ow &raw favoure& over si; an& seven fur#ongs/ Significant a&vantage for %ig% nu.*ers on t%e straig%t course1 .ore )ronounce& w%en t%e groun& is fast/ Low nu.*ers *est at Af W './ Low nu.*ers favoure& in s%orter races e;ce)t w%en t%e going is soft1 in w%ic% case t%e stan&s si&e ten&s to run faster/ Hig% nu.*ers *est/ Hig% nu.*ers favoure& in s)rints/
=F
4o#ver%a.)ton 9ar.out% 9or-
Low nu.*ers s#ig%t#y favoure& in s)rints/ Hig% nu.*ers s#ig%t#y favoure& on t%e straig%t course1 es)ecia##y in #arge fie#&s/ Litt#e effect eit%er way/ Per%a)s #ow to .i&&#e nu.*ers *est on t%e straig%t trac-1 es)ecia##y w%en soft going )revai#s/
2.)L0 *.6) 2%is is si.)#y t%e nu.*er of %orses in a race/ 2%e %ig%er t%e si5e of t%e fie#& t%e *etter/ 2%e .ore runners t%ere are t%e .ore c%ance t%e favourite wi## *e %e#& u) *y anot%er %orse/ 2%is factor is .ore i.)ortant in .ai&ens t%an ot%er races/ Often you wi## see ine;)erience& %orses getting in eac% ot%er3s way in t%ese races/ .* T") 2+7-UR.T) + L+*T T.&) -UT .//)R8
0f t%e favourite won it3s #ast race t%en t%is wi## guarantee us .ore va#ue in our #ay/ 8ost of t%e )u*#ic over*et a L2O winner an& t%is gives t%e favourite #ower o&&s t%an it &eserves/ 9-1()3 So.e %orses run *etter w%en t%ey %ave a certain Soc-ey ri&ing t%e./ 2%is &oesn3t necessari#y .ean t%at an e;)erience& Soc-ey wi## *e *est/ Eac% Soc-ey %as a &ifferent tec%ni:ue of racing/ So.e #i-e to )us% t%eir %orse %ar& w%i#e ot%ers )refer to *e gent#er/ O*vious#y so.e %orses run *etter &e)en&ing %ow t%ey are treate& &uring t%e race/ 2o :uic-#y see if a %orse an& Soc-ey are a goo& )artners%i) g#ance at t%e racing %istory of t%e %orse to see if t%e Soc-ey %as *een )#ace& on t%at %orse *efore/ 0f it %asn3t t%en it is :uite )ossi*#e t%ey &o not wor- we## toget%er an& t%is cou#& *e anot%er factor in our favour/ T-P*P))0 On t%e )ost&ata ta*#e 2%e $acing Post .a-e an assess.ent of eac% in&ivi&ua# %orse3s race s)ee&/ 0f t%e favourite %as a to) s)ee& rating #ower t%an A<M of t%e %ig%est rating t%is is anot%er factor in our favour an& suggests t%e %orse .ay strugg#e/
>
*): -2 T") "-R*) 2%is %as no *earing on t%e regu#ar turf trac-s *ut it can *e i.)ortant on t%e "4 trac-s/ " re#ative#y un-nown fact is t%at fe.a#e %orses )erfor. *a&#y on t%e san&/ 0f a s%ort )rice& favourite is a fi##y or a .are1 an& ot%er factors are con&ucive1 it is ri)e for #aying/ 2-R& (ounter-intuitive#y t%e fina# t%ing 0 c%ec- is for./ Jenera##y t%e favourite wi## *e in for. *ut it3s i.)ortant to c%ec- anyway/ 4e are not concerne& wit% finis%ing )osition *ut %ow far it won or #ost *y/ 8ost )unters si.)#y #oo- at t%e finis%ing )osition *ut we wi## #oo- a #itt#e &ee)er/ 4e want to c%ec- w%et%er t%e %orse finis%e& wit%in U #engt% )er fur#ong of t%e winner in its #ast 2 runs/ 0f it &i& t%en 0 c#ass t%is as goo& for. if it &i&n3t t%en 0 c#ass t%is as out of for./ 2%is .eans it is :uite )ossi*#e for t%e favourite to %ave finis%e& 2n& on it3s )revious two runs an& sti## *e c#asse& as out of for./ Of course if a favourite %as won it3s #ast two runs t%en t%at is consi&ere& very goo& for./ 0f it won t%e races *y .ore t%an U #engt% )er fur#ong t%en 0 consi&er t%is e;ce##ent for./ 0 a#so c%ec- t%e for. of t%e %orses in t%e race 0 %ave i&entifie& as )otentia# riva#s to t%e favourite/
>'
CHAPTER 1,: STEP 1 ; BRINGING IT ALL

TOGETHER
Once you3ve carrie& out t%e first t%ree ste)s of t%e syste. you .ay %ave a #ist of severa# :ua#ifiers an& you nee& to &eci&e w%ic% one to #ay/ 0 )refer to on#y #ay one %orse a &ay as 0 fin& 0 can get a very %ig% stri-e rate t%is way/ 0 #i-e to use t%e ta*#e *e#ow to co.)are any #ist of :ua#ifiers 0 %ave/ Si.)#y )ut a cross in t%e *o; if t%e warning sign is in our favour an& t%en tota# t%e. u)/ For eac% )ri.ary sign in our favour )ut two crosses in t%e *o;/ However it is i.)ortant to note t%at 0 &on3t necessari#y Sust #ay t%e %orse wit% t%e *iggest tota#1 a#t%oug% t%at is genera##y t%e case/ 0 #i-e to #oo- at t%e *igger )icture/ For e;a.)#e 0 .ig%t #ay a %orse wit% a s.a##er tota# *ecause 0 t%in- t%e stan&ar& of o))osition in t%e race is so %ig% t%at it overri&es ot%er factors/ 2%is wi## ta-e ti.e for you to )ic- u)/ 0 suggest -ee)ing trac- of a## t%e resu#ts of your :ua#ifiers as t%is wi## %e#) you i.)rove your Su&ge.ent/ "s you #ay .ore an& .ore %orses your Su&ge.ent wi## i.)rove in #ea)s an& *oun&s/
>2
F#at Ra i"g
PR.&+R3 +R/./G *.G/* JO0BJ D0S2"B(E (L"SS 'S2 208E $@BBE$ S@$F"(E 4E0JH2 2$"0BE$ -PP-*.T.-/ HO4 8"B9 $0C"LS *)1-/0+R3 +R/./G *.G/* D"9S S0B(E L"S2 $@B D$"4 F0ELD S0XE L2O 40BBE$D ,O(+E9 2OPSPEED SEX OF 2HE HO$SE FO$8 2O2"L "orse 1 "orse 2 "orse 3 "orse !
>=
CHAPTER 11: E5A<PLE 1

E5A<PLE 1 ; 23O STA9ES ; <USSELBURGH
2%e a*ove car& co.es fro. a c#ass > 29O sta-es at 8usse#*urg% over <f on goo&fir. groun&/ 2%e *etting forecast s%ows t%e favourite is Stir (ra5y wit% a tissue )rice of ''L>/ Pri.ary 4arning Signs Loo-ing at t%e Post&ata ta*#e t%ere are no i..e&iate warning signs/ 2%e %orse %as a tic- for *ot% t%e going an& t%e &istance so we %ave to #oo- in furt%er &etai# at it3s racing %istory/
>>
4e can i..e&iate#y see t%at Stir (ra5y is carrying .ore weig%t t%an it ever %as *efore/ 0t is carrying E#*s .ore an& in fact is carrying t%e %eaviest )ena#ty in t%e race/ "s t%is %orse is ine;)erience& 0 fee# t%is increase in weig%t is significant enoug% to count against t%e %orse/ Furt%er.ore #oo-ing *ac- at t%e %orse3s %istory it3s on#y win ca.e w%en it was carrying significant#y #ess weig%t t%an in to&ay3s race/ 4e can a#so see t%at t%e %orse is ste))ing u) in c#ass fro. it3s )revious race/ Stir (ra5y %as &one re#ative#y we## in c#ass < events *ut w%en race& in a c#ass = it was we## *eaten/ 2o&ay3s race is a c#ass > event an& 0 fee# t%is is enoug% of a ste) u) to count as a warning sign in our favour/ Fina##y #oo-ing at t%e trainer3s course-win )ercentage *e#ow we can see t%at t%e favourite3s trainer1 8 $ (%annon %as a win )ercentage of '>M/ 2%is is not enoug% to scare us fro. #aying t%is %orse/
><
So we %ave two )ri.ary warning signs in our favour G weig%t an& c#ass G an& t%is is enoug% for us to )rocee&/ O))osition Bow we %ave to *rowse t%e race %istory of t%e ot%er %orse3s in t%e race to see if we can fin& one wit% si.i#ar a*i#ity to our favourite/
2%e 8ig%ty Og.ore #oo-s to *e a very serious c%a##enger to our favourite/ 0t is carrying .ore weig%t t%an it ever %as *efore w%ic% is t%e on#y )ri.ary warning sign against it Ha#t%oug% it is si## <#*s #ig%ter t%an t%e favouriteI/ 2%e favourite %as on#y )erfor.e& we## in c#ass < events *ut t%is %orse %as won a c#ass > event in its )revious race an& see.s to *e getting *etter an& *etter wit% every run/ 2%is %orse certain#y .atc%es t%e favourite in ter.s of a*i#ity/
>!
E..a 2o#& Lies is anot%er %orse wit% on#y ' )ri.ary warning sign against it/ Li-e t%e favourite it is .oving u) in c#ass/ 2%is %orse %as %a& si.i#ar race resu#ts to t%at of our favourite/ 0n fact E..a 2o#& Lies %as won two c#ass < events )revious#y giving it .ore wins t%an t%e favourite/ 2%is is certain#y anot%er %orse wit% t%e )otentia# to win t%e race/
Jranny Pee# is a#so ste))ing u) in c#ass an& %as :uestion .ar-s over %er weig%t w%ic% )uts %er on a )ar wit% t%e favourite/ 2%is %orse %as a#so won a c#ass < event *efore an& overa## %as a *etter racing %istory t%an Stri (ra5y/ Jranny )ee# %as *een )#ace& in every one of it3s races an& %as won > ti.es *efore/ 2%is %orse certain#y %as as .uc% c%ance of winning t%e race as t%e favourite/ Secon&ary 4arning Signs Fina##y we nee& to see w%at secon&ary warning signs are in our favour to see if we can strengt%en our )osition on #aying t%is %orse/ Loo-ing at t%e &ays since #ast run figure we can see t%at Stir (ra5y #ast ran ' &ay ago/ 2%is is certain#y in our favour as t%e %orse is un#i-e#y to %ave fu##y recovere& fro. t%is race an& t%is wi## effect it3s )erfor.ance/ "ccor&ing to t%e $acing Post t%e &raw favours no %orse/ But #oo-ing at .y ta*#e a*ove w%ic% goes into .ore &etai# we can see t%at %ig% nu.*ers are a s#ig%t
>A
a&vantage u) to Ef at 8usse#*urg%/ Stir (ra5y is in sta## 2 an& wi## %ave no suc% a&vantage/ C!" #%si!" 2%ere are two )ri.ary warning signs in our favour?

Stir (ra5y is carrying .ore weig%t t%an it ever %as *efore w%ic% wi## %a.oer its )rogress/ Stir (ra5y is ste))ing u) in c#ass an& wi## *e racing *etter %orses t%an
)revious#y.
4e %ave i&entifie& = ot%er %orses in t%e race w%ic% we *e#ieve %ave t%e a*i#ity to *eat t%e favourite/ Fina##y t%ere are two secon&ary warning signs in our favour?

Stir (ra5y #ast run was on#y ' &ay ago an& so t%e %orse wi## *e tire&/ Ot%er %orses in t%e race %ave t%e *enefit of a *etter &raw/
Stir (ra5y is a &efinite #ay for .e/
>E
THE RESULT
0n t%e en& t%e outsi&er won t%e race / 0t wasn3t a %orse 0 i&entifie& as a t%reat *ecause it &i& not see. to %ave t%e a*i#ity to win t%e race1 *ut it %as )rove& .e wrong/ 2%is s%ows t%e great t%ing a*out #aying/ Often an outsi&er t%at you &on3t even consi&er can co.e fro. now%ere an& *eat t%e favourite/
>F
CHAPTER 15: E5A<PLE 2

E5A<PLE 2 - HANDICAP - 2INDSOR
2%e a*ove car& co.es fro. a c#ass < %an&ica) at Brig%ton over !.2 Fy on fir. groun&/ For so.e reason t%e $acing Post %as not )u*#is%e& t%e tissue )rices for t%e %orses/ 4%en t%is %a))ens si.)#y c%ec- on Betfair to see w%at t%e favourite is/ 0n t%is race t%e favourite was Hig% (#ass Pro*#e./ Pri.ary 4arning Signs Loo-ing at t%e )ost&ata ta*#e we can i..e&iate#y see t%at t%e favourite %as a :uestion .ar- over t%e going/ Loo-ing at t%e %orse3s race %istory *e#ow we can see t%at Hig% (#ass Pro*#e. %as never race& on fir. groun& *efore/
<
2%is re)resents t%e on#y rea# )ri.ary warning sign for t%e favourite a#t%oug% we can see t%at t%is isn3t rea##y a %orse of great a*i#ity as it3s )revious *est run was a >t% )#ace/ 0t3s see.s t%is %orse is not rea##y any great s%a-es in c#ass < events/ Furt%er.ore t%e %orse wi## *e carrying =#* .ore t%an it ever %as *efore/ 4%i#st t%is is not enoug% to count as a warning sign it certain#y )uts .ore &ou*t in t%e a*i#ity of t%e %orse to win t%e race/ Fina##y #oo-ing at t%e trainer3s course-win )ercentage *e#ow we can see t%at t%e favourite3s trainer1 P F 0 (o#e %as a win )ercentage of FM/ 2%is is not enoug% to scare us fro. #aying t%is %orse/
<'
O))osition Be;t we %ave to *rowse t%e race %istory of t%e ot%er %orse3s in t%e race to see if we can fin& one wit% si.i#ar a*i#ity to our favourite/
E#usive 4arrior %as no )ri.ary warning signs against it3s na.e an& see.s to *e .ore t%an a .atc% for t%e favourite as it %as won a c#ass < event on it3s )revious run/
<2
Danis% B#ues is anot%er %orse no )ri.ary warning signs against it3s na.e an& %as t%e )otentia# to *eat t%e favourite %ere/ 4%i#st t%is %orse %as not won a race *efore it %as %a& si.i#ar resu#ts to t%e favourite an& .ust *e consi&ere&/
(in&ertrac- is carrying t%e %eaviest )ena#ty in t%e race an& weig%t .ig%t *e a )ro*#e./ But it is anot%er %orse yet to win a race *ut wit% resu#ts co.)ara*#e to t%e favourite an& %as t%e )otentia# to win t%is one/ Secon&ary 4arning Signs "ccor&ing to t%e $acing Post t%e &raw %as no effect *ut #oo-ing at .y .ore &etai#e& ta*#e on )age =A we can see t%at in s)rints #ow nu.*ers are favoure&/ Our %orse is running fro. sta## A an& wi## receive no a&vantage/
<=
2%e Soc-ey %as never ri&&en t%is %orse *efore an& t%at counts in our favour as t%e Soc-ey wi## %ave no fee# for t%e %orse in a racing situation/ C!" #%si!" 2%ere is one )ri.ary warning sign in our favour?

Hig% (#ass Pro*#e. %as never race& on fir. groun& *efore/ 2%is is t%e %ar&est surface t%ere is an& it .ay not *e to t%e %orse3s #i-ing/
4e %ave i&entifie& = ot%er %orses in t%e race w%ic% we *e#ieve %ave t%e a*i#ity to *eat t%e favourite/ Fina##y t%ere are two secon&ary warning signs in our favour?

Ot%er %orses in t%e race %ave t%e *enefit of a *etter &raw/ 2%e Soc-ey %as not ri&&en t%is %orse *efore/
Hig% (#ass Pro*#e. is anot%er goo& c%oice for a #ay/
<>
THE RESULT
"not%er successfu# #ay as our favourite ca.e secon&/ 2%e winner (in&ertrac- was one of t%e %orses 0 i&entifie& as a .aSor t%reat an& so it )rove& wit% a co.forta*#e victory/
<<
CHAPTER 16: LA3ING HORSES ; NATIONAL

HUNT ?@U<PA RACING
0n Bationa# Hunt racing t%e %orses are .a&e to Su.) a nu.*er of o*stac#es
t%roug%out t%e course/ 2%e courses are at #east 2 .i#es H'! fur#ongsI #ong an& t%e
%orses are starte& fro. a ta)e *arrier/ ,u.) %orses .ature .ore s#ow#y an& &on3t run
unti# t%ey are > or <-year-o#&s/ ,u.) racing goes on a## year roun& *ut its .ain
season runs fro. Bove.*er unti# t%e en& of ")ri#.
2%ere are 2 .ain ty)es of Su.) race1 eac% wit% &ifferent si5e& *arriers.
St''&#' has's ?Chas'sA - 0n t%ese races t%e %orses are .a&e to Su.) 3fences3 w%ich
vary in si5e/ 2%ese are t%e *iggest o*stac#es a %orse wi## %ave to face/ 2%e Jrand
Bationa# is t%e .ost )restigious stee)#ec%ase event in t%e @/+.
H%r$#'s - 0n t%ese races t%e %orses are .a&e to Su.) over o*stac#es .easuring a*out
= feet ' inc% in %eig%t.
"not%er ty)e of Su.) race is P!i"t t! P!i"t Ra 's - 2%ese races are run over fences
on &esignate& far.#an& t%roug%out t%e country in t%e S)ring an& "utu.n/ 2%is is
*asica##y t%e nursery for young Su.) %orses w%o wi## )rogress to Su.) over %ur&#es
an& fences/ 4e wi## not *e #oo-ing at #aying %orses in )oint to )oint races.
0n Su.) racing t%ere are a#so %an&ica)s an& non-%an&ica) races.
Li-e on t%e f#at t%ere are &ifferent ty)es of races &e)en&ing on t%e :ua#ity of t%e fie#&.
<ai$'"s G "s wit% t%e f#at .ai&ens are run *y %orses w%o %ave never won *efore.
N!0i 's G 2%ese are for %orses w%o %ave not won a race )rior to t%at season/ 4%en a
%orse wins a novice race it can sti## co.)ete in novices for t%e rest of t%at season *ut
it %as to carry a weig%t )ena#ty.
B%(&'rs G "#so ca##e& Bationa# Hunt F#at $aces/ 2%ese are s)ecia# f#at races for
young Su.) %orses.
Ot%er ty)es of races inc#u&eO "uction races1 (#ai.ing races1 an& Se##ing races/ 4E
DO BO2 L"9 "B9 HO$SES 0B 2HESE $"(ES/ 2%is is *ecause t%e %orses
invo#ve& are a#ways .e&iocre at *est an& it is very %ar& to *e sure of #aying t%e
favourite.
<!
CHAPTER 17: STEP 1 ; PRI<AR3 2ARNING

SIGNS ; @U<P RACING
8any of t%e varia*#es for Su.) racing are si.i#ar to t%at of f#at racing *ut 0 wi## ta-e you t%roug% t%e. one *y one as t%ere are su*t#e &ifferences/ PRI<AR3 -ARIABLES G-./G 2%e going si.)#y &escri*es w%at t%e groun& con&itions are #i-e on t%e course/ 2%e &escri)tions are as fo##owsO %eavy1 soft1 goo&-to-soft1 goo&1 goo&-to-fir. an& fir./ 2%e going is a very i.)ortant factor in any %orse race/ So.e %orses can run e:ua##y we## on any ty)e of going *ut .any %ave a )reference/ 4%at we are on t%e #oo- out for is a favourite w%o %as never run on a )articu#ar going *efore Ht%is wi## usua##y *e in novice racesI1 or a favourite wit% a )oor recor& on t%at )articu#ar going/ 2%is %a))ens .ore regu#ar#y t%an you .ig%t t%in-/ 9ou3## often see a %orse t%at %as *een in s)ar-#ing for. on soft trac-s *eing favourite on a fir. surface an& *eing soun&#y *eaten/ " #ot of )unters negate to c%ec- even t%is si.)#e factor/ BOB@S 20P G 2%e softer t%e groun& t%e *etter it is for us #ayers/ 0t is we## -nown t%at favourites win a %ig%er )ercentage of races w%en t%ere is fir. in t%e groun&/ 0f t%e going is goo&-fir. or fir. t%en we nee& ot%er factors to go in our favour if we are to #ay any %orses/ 2%e %eavier t%e going t%e .ore ran&o. t%e resu#ts ten& to *e/ BOB@S 20P 2 G 4atc% out for a f#at %orse s)ecia#ist Su.)ing for t%e first ti.e on soft groun&/ En&urance wi## *e an issue for t%e %orse as it %as not %a& to Su.) *efore an& t%e stic-y soft groun& wi## test t%e %orse3s sta.ina/ 0.*T+/1) "#ong wit% t%e going1 &istance is t%e .ost i.)ortant factor in a %orse race/ 0n Su.) racing you &on3t get s)rints *ut t%e races sti## vary in &istance/ So.e %orses are *etter at t%e .e&iu. #engt% races of 2 .i#es w%i#e ot%ers )refer #onger &istances H= .i#esQI t%at are a rea# test of sta.ina/ 9ou nee& to *e on t%e #oo- out for one of two t%ings/ Eit%er a %orse t%at is ste))ing
<A
u) in tri) for t%e first ti.e/ 4%i#st a %orse .ig%t %ave &one we## at t%e .e&iu. &istances if it is racing at a #onger &istance for t%e first ti.e it3s goo& for. can *e :uestione&/ Or secon&#y a %orse t%at %as a )oor recor& at t%e race3s &istance/ For e;a.)#e you .ig%t %ave a %orse wit% e;ce##ent for. over 2 .i#es *ut %as %a& a cou)#e of &o&gy runs over 2 fur#ongs/ Be;t ti.e t%e %orse runs 2 fur#ongs it is a )ossi*#e #aying o))ortunity/ BOB@S 20P G (onsi&er w%at &istances a %orse %as *een running at recent#y/ Horses are ani.a#s of %a*it an& if you see a %orse running at a &ifferent &istance to its .ost recent runs it cou#& *e a #aying o))ortunity/ Jenera##y s)ea-ing a &ifference of > fur#ongs is enoug% for us to cast &ou*t over t%e favourite/ Of course t%is wou#&n3t *e c#asse& as a )ri.ary reason to #ay t%e %orse *ut it cou#& *e a su))#e.entary factor w%en &eci&ing w%ic% %orse to #ay/ BOB@S 20P 2 G Distance is a )articu#ar warning for a f#at %orse s)ecia#ist Su.)ing for t%e first ti.e/ En&urance wi## *e an issue for t%e %orse as it %as not %a& to Su.) *efore an& Su.) races are usua##y #onger t%an f#at races so t%e %orses3 sta.ina wi## *e severe#y teste&/ 1L+** "s seen a*ove t%ere are &ifferent categories of race &e)en&ing on t%e :ua#ity of t%e entrants/ 4%at we are #oo-ing for is a %orse t%at is .oving u) in c#ass an& racing against *etter o))osition t%an it %as *efore/ 4%at you .ay fin& is a %orse *eing a s%ort )rice& favourite in it3s first con&itions race si.)#y *ecause it won it3s .ai&en co.forta*#y/ However it .ay we## fin& itse#f u) against %orses w%o %ave a#so won t%eir own .ai&ens/ "s we## as races *eing na.e& #i-e .ai&ens an& con&itions t%ey are a#so given a c#ass category &e)en&ing on t%e )ri5e .oney avai#a*#e/ 2%e ta*#e *e#ow su..arises t%e &ifferent c#asses for Su.) races?
<E
9U&P 1L+** *3*T)& C#s 1 Jra&e ' Jra&e 2 inc# #i.ite& %c)s Jra&e = o)en %c)s Liste& C#s 2 O)en %c)s -'> Q C#s , -''<L'=< C#s 1 -' L''< C#s 5 -E<LF< C#s 6 Hunt(% W BHF Chas' N' N< N< N2<N2=N2 N' N</<-' N=/<-</<N'/! G =/<N!0Chs H%r$#' N< NA<N=2N> N><N2 N22N'EN'>NEN>/<-EN=/2->/<N!0H%r NHF#at N> N2<N2EN2 N'EN'<N'EN'>NEN>/<-EN=/2->/<N2/<-=/2-
2%e #ower t%e c#ass t%e *etter :ua#ity t%e %orses are an& t%e .ore )ri5e .oney avai#a*#eO (#ass ' *eing t%e *est %orses an& (#ass ! t%e worst/ 4e are #oo-ing for %orses w%o are .oving u) in c#ass for t%e first ti.e or %orses w%ic% %ave %a& *a& resu#ts in a certain c#ass/ 2.R*T T.&) "UR0L)R 0f a %orse is a s%ort favourite on its first run t%en t%at is a great o))ortunity for #aying/ Horses w%o are Su.)ing for t%e first ti.e can *e two &ifferent ty)es of %orse/ Eit%er t%ey %ave *een *re& as a nationa# %unt %orse or t%ey are a f#at-*re& %orse Su.)ing for t%e first ti.e/ Once again it is i.)ossi*#e to te## %ow a %orse wi## react to it3s first %ur&#e race/ Even if t%e %orse %as *een racing on t%e f#at *efore it wi## %ave e;)erience& not%ing #i-e a %ur&#es race *efore/ "gain if a %orse is a s%ort favourite it cou#& si.)#y *e &ue to its sta*#e connections/ Or it .ay %ave *een a %orse wit% goo& resu#ts on t%e f#at an& so auto.atica##y gets favouritis./ BOB@S 20P G First ti.e %ur&#ers wi## *e co.)eting in novice %ur&#e events/ 2%ese are great events for )ic-ing u) va#ua*#e #ays as t%e )u*#ic rea##y %ave no i&ea %ow a %orse wi## ta-e to %ur&#ing/ Furt%er.ore t%ese races are fu## of ine;)erience& %orses w%o often *ring eac% ot%er &own over t%e o*stac#es/
<F
2.R*T T.&) 1"+*)R 0f a %orse is a s%ort favourite on its first c%ase t%en again t%at is a great o))ortunity for #aying/ "ny %orse t%at c%ases wi## %ave *een a %ur&#er at so.e )oint/ But t%e fences in a stee)#ec%ase are a #ot *igger t%an %ur&#es an& even if a %orse is a great %ur&#er it .ay not .a-e a great c%aser/ 0f we see a s%ort favourite w%o %as never c%ase& *efore %ave ourse#ves a #aying o))ortunity/ BOB@S 20P G First ti.e c%asers wi## *e co.)eting in novice c%ase events/ 2%ese are great events for )ic-ing u) va#ua*#e #ays as t%e )u*#ic rea##y %ave no i&ea %ow a %orse wi## ta-e to c%asing/ Furt%er.ore t%ese races are fu## of ine;)erience& %orses w%o often *ring eac% ot%er &own over t%e o*stac#es/ ).G"T 2%e weig%t t%e %orse is carrying is t%e fina# factor we nee& to assess/ Over Su.)s t%is factor is i.)ortant in non-%an&ica)s as we##/ Once a %orse wins a novice event it is a##owe& to co.)ete in ot%er novice races for t%e rest of t%e season/ However it .ust carry a weig%t )ena#ty/ 2%is gives u) #ots of #aying o))ortunities/ Often a %orse w%o %as one a novice event wi## *e favourite for t%e ne;t race &ue to it3s for./ However .any )unters &o not ta-e into account t%e e;tra weig%t it is carrying an& *#in&#y *ac- it/ Often you wi## see t%ese favourites #osing t%eir ne;t race/ "s wit% f#at racing1 weig%t is very i.)ortant in %an&ica)s/ 4e nee& to &eci&e if t%e weig%t t%e %orse is carrying wi## affect t%e favourite in any way/ One way to &o t%is is to c%ec- w%at weig%t t%e %orse %as carrie& in )revious races/ 0f it is carrying significant#y .ore t%is ti.e aroun& t%en t%is wi## *e a :uestion .ar- over t%e %orse/ "not%er way is to rea& t%e $acing Post3s s)ot#ig%t ver&ict on t%e %orse3s c%ance in t%e race/ 0f t%e weig%t is going to *e a )ro*#e. t%ey wi## usua##y )oint t%is out/ TR+./)R4* 1-UR*)5 ./ P)R1)/T+G) 2%is )ri.ary warning sign is &ifferent to t%e rest in t%at it can warn us off #aying a favourite rat%er t%an *eing a factor in our favour/
2%is is si.)#y a figure t%at s%ows w%at )ercentage a trainer wins at a )articu#ar course/ 0t can *e a rea##y i.)ortant factor in i&entifying a favourite t%at we s%ou#& not #ay/ Logic &ictates t%at eac% trainer s%ou#& %ave an a*out e:ua# )ercentage for eac% course/ But t%is is not t%e case/ @sua##y a trainer %as at #east one course w%ere it3s %orses &o *etter t%an average an& .ore often t%an not it is t%e course w%ic% is c#osest to t%e sta*#e/ 4%en a %orse is traine& near to a certain course t%e groun& it trains on wi## *e si.i#ar to t%e groun& on t%e race trac- &ue to si.i#ar weat%er1 soi# ty)es etc/ 2%is gives it an i..e&iate a&vantage over t%e rest of t%e fie#& as it is at %o.e on t%ose con&itions/ Furt%er.ore t%e trave##ing ti.e to t%e race trac- is s%ort/ Horses are notorious#y te.)era.enta# ani.a#s an& can easi#y *e unsett#e& *y #ong Sourneys to t%e tracw%ic% as you wou#& e;)ect worsens t%eir )erfor.ance/ 0 &on3t #ay any %orses w%ere t%e trainer-course )ercentage is over = M/ 0n fact so.eti.es 0 c%ose not to #ay %orses wit% a )ercentage un&er t%is/ For e;a.)#e if t%e trainer of t%e favourite %as a win )ercentage of 2<M an& t%e ne;t %ig%est for t%e race is on#y ' M 0 wi## often &isregar& t%is favourite an& #oo- at anot%er race/
!'
CHAPTER 17: STEP 2 ; E-ALUATING THE

OPPOSITION
"fter carrying out t%e first )rocess of t%e syste. you wi## %ave a #ist of )otentia# favourites to #ay/ 2%e ne;t ste) is to eva#uate t%e o))osition in t%at race/ 4%at you are #oo-ing for is at #east one ot%er %orse w%ic% #oo-s to %ave t%e a*i#ity to *eat t%e favourite/ 2o &o t%is we :uic-#y scan t%e racing %istory for eac% %orse in t%e race searc%ing for at #east one %orse wit% si.i#ar a*i#ity to t%at of t%e favourite/ Of course we &on3t want to s)en& too #ong &oing t%is as we &on3t want to fa## into t%e tra) of s)en&ing %ours rea&ing for./ 4e si.)#y want to fin& %orses wit% si.i#ar race resu#ts to t%at of t%e favourite/ Si.i#ar resu#ts inc#u&es t%e actua# finis%ing )osition of t%e %orse in its )ast races as we## as %ow .any #engt%s it won or #ost *y/ One ru#e 0 stic- to is t%at for t%ese riva# %orses to :ua#ify as a )otentia# race winner t%ey cannot %ave .ore )ri.ary warning signs against t%eir na.es t%an t%e favourite/ 2%e *est way to Su&ge a %orse3s a*i#ity is to see %ow it %as )erfor.e& in a certain c#ass/ For e;a.)#e if t%e favourite in a race %as )revious#y won races in c#ass < events1 i&ea##y we want to fin& ot%er %orses in t%at race t%at %ave a#so won c#ass < events/ Or if a favourite %as *een )#ace& *efore t%en we wou#& nee& to fin& ot%er %orses in t%e race w%o %a& *een )#ace& in si.i#ar events to t%e favourite/ 2%e *est way to un&erstan& t%is as)ect of t%e syste. is to #oo- t%roug% t%e )ractica# e;a.)#es 0 wi## ta-e you t%roug% in a .o.ent/
!2
CHAPTER 1:: STEP , ; SECONDARY

2ARNING SIGNS ; @U<P RACING
Once we %ave foun& our favourites wit% at #east one :uestion .ar- over t%eir a*i#ity we nee& to c%oose w%ic% one we are going to #ay/ 4e &o t%is *y consi&ering a secon& #eve# of factors/ SECONDAR3 2ARNING SIGNS 2%ese factors are not as i.)ortant to t%e outco.e of a race as t%e )ri.ary factors *ut t%ey sti## )#ay a )art an& so nee& to *e ta-en into consi&eration/ 0+3* *./1) L+*T RU/ 2%is use& to *e an i.)ortant factor wit%in %orse racing *ut new an& i.)rove& training .et%o&s %ave #essene& its i.)ortance/ 4e nee& to *e on t%e #oo-out for a %orse t%at %as not run for ! &ays or is running again wit%in A &ays of it3s #ast run/ 0f a %orse %as not run wit%in ! &ays t%en it %as no &iscerni*#e for. an& it3s t%e sa.e )rinci)#e as a foot*a## )#ayer #ac-ing 3.atc% )ractise3/ However it is i.)ortant to stu&y t%e %orse3s )revious race %istory/ So.e %orses are notorious#y goo& at co.ing *ac- fro. a #ong #ay off so if a %orse %as a %istory of t%is we nee& to e;ercise caution/ 0f a %orse runs wit%in A &ays of it3s #ast run it %ere is a c%ance it .ig%t not %ave recovere& fu##y fro. its )revious efforts an& .ay #ac- sta.ina/ But again so.e %orses can run we## severa# &ays in a row so c%ec- it3s )ast race %istory to *e sure/ 2.)L0 *.6) 2%is is si.)#y t%e nu.*er of %orses in a race/ 2%e %ig%er t%e si5e of t%e fie#& t%e *etter/ 2%is %as .ore significance over Su.)s t%an it %as on t%e f#at/ 4it% Bationa# Hunt racing t%e .ore %orses t%ere are Sost#ing for )osition over t%e Su.)s t%e .ore c%ance t%ere is of %orses *ringing eac% ot%er &own/ Li-e on t%e f#at t%is factor is .ore i.)ortant in races w%ere t%ere are ine;)erience& %orses racing toget%er suc% as novice %ur&#es an& novice c%ases/
!=
.* T") 2+7-UR.T) + L+*T T.&) -UT
.//)R8
0f t%e favourite won it3s #ast race t%en t%is wi## guarantee us .ore va#ue in our #ay/ 8ost of t%e )u*#ic over*et a L2O winner an& t%is gives t%e favourite #ower o&&s t%an it &eserves/ 9-1()3 So.e %orses run *etter w%en t%ey %ave a certain Soc-ey ri&ing t%e./ 2%is &oesn3t necessari#y .ean t%at an e;)erience& Soc-ey wi## *e *est/ Eac% Soc-ey %as a &ifferent tec%ni:ue of racing/ So.e #i-e to )us% t%eir %orse %ar& w%i#e ot%ers )refer to *e gent#er/ O*vious#y so.e %orses run *etter &e)en&ing %ow t%ey are treate& &uring t%e race/ 2o :uic-#y see if a %orse an& Soc-ey are a goo& )artners%i) g#ance at t%e racing %istory of t%e %orse to see if t%e Soc-ey %as *een )#ace& on t%at %orse *efore/ 0f it %asn3t t%en it is :uite )ossi*#e t%ey &o not wor- we## toget%er an& t%is cou#& *e anot%er factor in our favour/ 2%is is anot%er factor t%at is .ore i.)ortant in Bationa# Hunt racing &ue to t%e nature of Su.)ing over o*stac#es/ 2%e Soc-ey an& t%e %orse %ave to *e in tune or t%ere is a %ig% ris- t%e %orse wi## fa## or refuse to Su.)/ T-P*P))0 On t%e )ost&ata ta*#e 2%e $acing Post .a-e an assess.ent of eac% in&ivi&ua# %orse3s race s)ee&/ 0f t%e favourite %as a to) s)ee& rating #ower t%an A<M of t%e %ig%est rating t%is is anot%er factor in our favour an& suggests t%e %orse .ay strugg#e/ +G) -2 T") "-R*) Horses ten& to Su.) *etter t%e o#&er t%ey get/ 2%e younger %orses %ave .ore eratic resu#ts an& %ave a greater c%ance of fa##ing/ Horses < years o#& an& young get a *#ac.ar- %ere/ 2-R& (ounter-intuitive#y t%e fina# t%ing 0 c%ec- is for./ Jenera##y t%e favourite wi## *e in for. *ut it3s i.)ortant to c%ec- anyway/ 4e are not concerne& wit% finis%ing
!>
)osition *ut %ow far it won or #ost *y/ 8ost )unters si.)#y #oo- at t%e finis%ing )osition *ut we wi## #oo- a #itt#e &ee)er/ 4e want to c%ec- w%et%er t%e %orse finis%e& wit%in U #engt% )er fur#ong of t%e winner in its #ast 2 runs/ 0f it &i& t%en 0 c#ass t%is as goo& for. if it &i&n3t t%en 0 c#ass t%is as out of for./ 2%is .eans it is :uite )ossi*#e for t%e favourite to %ave finis%e& 2n& on it3s )revious two runs an& sti## *e c#asse& as out of for./ Of course if a favourite %as won it3s #ast two runs t%en t%at is consi&ere& very goo& for./ 0f it won t%e races *y .ore t%an U #engt% )er fur#ong t%en 0 consi&er t%is e;ce##ent for./ 0 a#so c%ec- t%e for. of t%e %orses in t%e race 0 %ave i&entifie& as )otentia# riva#s to t%e favourite/
!<
CHAPTER 2=: STEP 1 ; BRINGING IT ALL

TOGETHER
Once you3ve carrie& out t%e first t%ree ste)s of t%e syste. you .ay %ave a #ist of severa# :ua#ifiers an& you nee& to &eci&e w%ic% one to #ay/ 0 )refer to on#y #ay one %orse a &ay as 0 fin& 0 can get a very %ig% stri-e rate t%is way/ 0 #i-e to use t%e ta*#e *e#ow to co.)are any #ist of :ua#ifiers 0 %ave/ Si.)#y )ut a cross in t%e *o; if t%e warning sign is in our favour an& t%en tota# t%e. u)/ For eac% )ri.ary sign in our favour )ut two crosses in t%e *o;/ However it is i.)ortant to note t%at 0 &on3t necessari#y Sust #ay t%e %orse wit% t%e *iggest tota#1 a#t%oug% t%at is genera##y t%e case/ 0 #i-e to #oo- at t%e *igger )icture/ For e;a.)#e 0 .ig%t #ay a %orse wit% a s.a##er tota# *ecause 0 t%in- t%e stan&ar& of o))osition in t%e race is so %ig% t%at it overri&es ot%er factors/ 2%is wi## ta-e ti.e for you to )ic- u)/ 0 suggest -ee)ing trac- of a## t%e resu#ts of your :ua#ifiers as t%is wi## %e#) you i.)rove your Su&ge.ent/ "s you #ay .ore an& .ore %orses your Su&ge.ent wi## i.)rove in #ea)s an& *oun&s/
!!
@%(& Ra i"g
PR.&+R3 +R/./G *.G/* JO0BJ D0S2"B(E (L"SS 'S2 208E H@$DLE$ 'S2 208E (H"SE$ 4E0JH2 2$"0BE$ -PP-*.T.-/ HO4 8"B9 $0C"LS *)1-/0+R3 +R/./G *.G/* D"9S S0B(E L"S2 $@B D$"4 F0ELD S0XE L2O 40BBE$D ,O(+E9 2OPSPEED "JE OF HO$SE FO$8 2O2"L "orse 1 "orse 2 "orse 3 "orse !
!A
CHAPTER 21: E5A<PLE ,

E5A<PLE , ; NO-ICE HURDLE - STRATFORD
2%e a*ove car& co.es fro. a c#ass = %an&ica) %ur&#e at Stratfor& over 2.!f'' y on goo&-fir. groun&/ Loo-ing at t%e *etting forecast t%e favourite is Onwar& 2o J#ory wit% a tissue )rice of ''L>/
!E
Pri.ary 4arning Signs Loo-ing at t%e Post&ata ta*#e t%ere are no i..e&iate warning signs/ 2%e %orse %as a tic- for *ot% t%e going an& t%e &istance so we %ave to #oo- in furt%er &etai# at t%e racing %istory/
4e can see t%at t%e favourite %as never race& in a c#ass = event *efore/ 0t wi## now *e racing against stronger o))osition t%an it %as ever face&/ Fina##y #oo-ing at t%e trainer3s course-win )ercentage *e#ow we can see t%at t%e favourite3s trainer1 P , Ho**s %as a win )ercentage of 2FM/ 2%is is a re#ative#y %ig% )ercentage *ut #oo-ing at t%e ot%er trainers3 figures it is not enoug% to scare us fro. #aying t%is %orse/
!F
O))osition Be;t we %ave to *rowse t%e race %istory of t%e ot%er %orse3s in t%e race to see if we can fin& one wit% si.i#ar a*i#ity to our favourite/
2%e $ising 8oon %as a :uestion .ar- over t%e going *ut %as a #ot of e;)erience wit%
racing in %ig% c#ass races an& %as even won a c#ass = %ur&#e *efore/ 2%is %orse &efinite#y %as t%e a*i#ity to win t%is race/
Harrycat %as one )ri.ary warning sign against it3s na.e G it %as a :uestion .ar- over t%e &istance/ But #i-e our favourite1 Harry(at %as a#so won a c#ass > %ur&#e *efore *ut .ore i.)ortant#y %as won a c#ass = %ur&#e as we##/ 2%is %orse is &efinite#y in wit% a c%ance of winning t%is one/
Jae#ic $ou#ette %as no )ri.ary warning signs against it an& is anot%er %orse t%at %as won a c#ass > %ur&#e *efore an& as suc% .ust *e consi&ere& wort%y of winning t%is race/
A'
$ose.auve is carrying t%e *iggest weig%t )ena#ty of a## t%e %orses *ut it %as )erfor.e& we## at t%is weig%t *efore an& it .ay not *e a )ro*#e./ 2%us %orse #oo-s #i-e a serious c%a##enger as it %as run very we## in c#ass = %ur&#e events *efore/ Secon&ary 4arning Signs Onwar& 2o J#ory %as not race& for !> &ays an& so %as no &iscerni*#e for./ 2%ere are '< runners in t%is race w%ic% is a #arge fie#& an& gives us .ore c%ance t%at t%e favourite wi## *e %a.)ere& &uring t%e race/ Onwar& to J#ory was a #ast ti.e out winner w%ic% .eans it wi## *e over*et *y t%e
*etting )u*#ic giving us *etter va#ue.
2%e Soc-ey P Brennan %as on#y race& on t%e %orse once an& in t%at race t%e %orse was
soun&#y *eaten/ 2%is cou#& .ean t%e two &o not suit eac% ot%er w%ic% is anot%er
factor in our favour.
2%e $acing Posts to) s)ee& rating for Onwar& 2o J#ory is on#y A M of t%at of Dr
(eru##o an& so t%e favourite .ay strugg#e to -ee) )ace.
(onc#usion
2%ere is one )ri.ary warning sign in our favour:
A2
Onwar& 2o J#ory is ste))ing u) in c#ass for t%is race an& %as not race& aginst t%is :ua#ity of o))osition *efore/
4e %ave i&entifie& > ot%er %orses in t%e race w%ic% we *e#ieve %ave t%e a*i#ity to *eat t%e favourite/ Fina##y t%ere are five secon&ary warning signs in our favour?

2%e favourite %as not race& for !> &ays an& so is out of running )ractice/ 2%e fie#& si5e of '< is #arge an& t%ere is .ore c%ance t%e favourite wi## *e %a.)ere&/ Onwar& 2o J#ory was a #ast ti.e out winner an& as suc% wi## give us .ore va#ue/ 2%e Soc-ey %as on#y run once on t%e %orse *efore an& was soun&#y *eaten 2%e favourite3s to)s)ee& rating is on#y A M of t%e %ig%est for t%e race an& as suc% .ay strugg#e to -ee) )ace//
Onwar& 2o J#ory is anot%er goo& c%oice for a #ay/
A=
THE RESULT
"s we can see our favourite ca.e fift%/ 2%e eventua# winner was Harrycat1 one of t%e )otentia# riva#s 0 )ic-e& out *efore t%e race/ Harrycat was a.a5ing#y )rice& at 2 L' w%ic% was a ri&icu#ous )rice consi&ering it3s )ast resu#ts/ Sti## t%at &oesn3t concern us/ "## we nee& to -now is t%at we3ve %a& anot%er successfu# #ay/
A>
PART FI-E: <A5I<ISING

PROFITS
O+ so you3ve #earn %ow to )ic- #osing %orses now its ti.e to )ic- u) so.e tec%ni:ues w%ic% wi## %e#) you to .a;i.ise your )rofits/
A<
CHAPTER 22: LA3ING AT THE RIGHT PRICE
4e %ave &iscusse& %ow to fin& %orses to #ay now we .ust focus on w%at )rice to #ay at/ 0f we are too generous wit% our o&&s we wi## *e &estroying any va#ue we %ave in t%e *ets/ 0t is *est to #ay t%e %orse as c#ose to t%e race start as )ossi*#e/ "roun& F M of *ets are )#ace in t%e 6#ives%ow7 )erio& *efore a race/ 2%is ta-es )#ace aroun& ' .inutes *efore t%e race starts/ "s we are #aying t%e favourite we are a#.ost guarantee& t%at our %orses3 )rice wi## &rift in t%e .ost/ However so.eti.es we .ig%t fin& t%at our %orse3s )rice &rifts out so .uc% t%at it is no #onger t%e favourite/ 0n t%is instance t%e ot%er )unters %ave o*vious#y rea#ise&1 #i-e we &i&1 t%at t%ere are &ou*ts over it3s a*i#ity/ 0n t%is circu.stance it rea##y is u) to you %ow to )rocee&/ 0f you3re convince& t%e %orse won3t win you .ig%t sti## want to #ay it or t%e )rice .ig%t &rift so far out t%at you &on3t want to ta-e a ris-/ 0 %ave a ru#e w%ere 0 &on3t #ay any %orse over </ on t%e e;c%anges/ 0 fee# t%e ris- is not wort% t%e )ayout if it wins/ 2%ere are so.e )eo)#e w%o #ay u) to = / an& a*ove *ut 0 certain#y wou#&n3t reco..en& t%is/ 2%ese )eo)#e )resu.e t%at t%ese %orses %ave no c%ance of winning an& t%at it is #ow ris-/ But it on#y ta-es one winner every t%irty *ets to co.)#ete#y wi)e out your )rofit an& we a## -now *ig )rice& winners %a))en now an& again/ 0f 0 was you 0 wou#& set a .a;i.u. )rice an& stic- to it at a## costs/ 0t wi## *e *etter for you )rofits in t%e #ong run/ Of course so.e of you wi## not *e a*#e to #ay Sust *efore t%e race &ue to ot%er co..it.ents/ 9ou wi## %ave to set a )rice *efore %an&/ 2o get an i&ea w%at o&&s to give you s%ou#& use t%e $acing Post3s tissue )rices as a gui&e/ 0n a&&ition you can c%ec- an& see w%at )rices ot%er )unters are giving on Betfair/
A!
CHAPTER 2,: USING A BETTING BANK
0t is essentia# to use a *etting *an- if you want #ong ter. )rofits/ Every serious )rofessiona# wi## %ave a *etting *an- an& use a sensi*#e sta-ing )#an/ So.eone w%o ta-es a &isci)#ine& a))roac% to *etting wi## a#ways *e .ore )rofita*#e t%an t%e one w%o fo##ows a %a)%a5ar& syste./ Jiven t%at we are #aying favourites we %ave to e;)ect so.e resu#ts to go against us fro. ti.e to ti.e/ Hence our sta-ing )#an .ust *e sensi*#e enoug% to cover any #osses/ 4e want our *etting *an- to grow stea&i#y an& in ti.e your *ets wi## *eco.e *igger an& *igger/ Don3t forget it is )ossi*#e to #ose your entire *etting *an- if you are care#ess so on#y *et wit% .oney you can affor& to #ose/ 4e want to *e ris-ing <M of t%e *etting *an- on every %orse/ 2%at is to say if t%e %orse wins t%e race we %ave to )ay out <M of our tota# *an-/ 2%is is a s.a## enoug% figure to cover our #osing *ets/ For e;a.)#e if your *etting *an- is N' t%e .ost we want to #ose on any *et is N< / So if t%e %orse is )rice& at </ you wi## *e sta-ing N' on it to #ose/
AA
CHAPTER 21: FINAL THOUGHTS
0n t%is .anua# you %ave everyt%ing you wi## ever nee& to *egin successfu##y #aying %orses/ 0f you %ave no e;)erience wit% %orse racing you .ig%t want to re-rea& severa# sections of t%is e*oo- unti# you un&erstan& everyt%ing fu##y/ 0 wou#& w%o##y reco..en& t%at you *egin *y )a)er tra&ing an& &on3t ris- any .oney for t%e first wee-/ 2%is wi## give you ti.e to get use& to t%e )ractice of #aying %orses/ Don3t forget you wi## #ay winning %orses fro. ti.e to ti.e/ 2%is is inevita*#e/ 4%en it %a))ens stu&y t%e race in .ore &e)t% to see if t%ere was anyt%ing you .isse&/ 0f t%ere was1 #earn fro. it an& .ove on to t%e ne;t #ay/ Joo& #uc- an& enSoy your e;tra inco.eY +ristian ,ac-.an "ut%or G 3How to Lay Favourites for a Living3/
AE

Racing Secrets Exposed

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Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - 2

! "## $ig%ts $eserve&

Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - 2

! "## $ig%ts $eserve&

(%a)ter '? 0ntro&uction///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// 3

Part 1: The Basics of Gambling.................................................................................................................................................................. 6

(%a)ter 2? @n&erstan&ing O&&s an& Percentages/................................................................................................................................ 7

Part 2: The Basics of Laying///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// 15

(%a)ter >? 4%at is LayingD/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// '6

Part 3: Understanding the Racing Post

(%a)ter !? @n&erstan&ing t%e $ace (ar&////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// 23

Part !: "o# to Pic$ a Losing "orse////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// 29

(%a)ter F? Laying Horses G F#at $acing//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// =0

Part 5: &a'imising Profits//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// 75

(%a)ter 22? Laying at t%e $ig%t Price//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// A6

Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - 2

! "## $ig%ts $eserve&

P"$2 OBE? 2HE B"S0(S OF

Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - 2

! "## $ig%ts $eserve&

CHAPTER 2: UNDERSTANDING ODDS AND

Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - 2

! "## $ig%ts $eserve&

Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - 2

! "## $ig%ts $eserve&

Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - 2

! "## $ig%ts $eserve&

Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - 2

! "## $ig%ts $eserve&

Ta)#' !* O$$s a"$ P'r '"ta+'s.

L' ' '/

' L'' '/F'

Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - 2

! "## $ig%ts $eserve&

CHAPTER ,: THE NOTION OF -ALUE

Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - 2

! "## $ig%ts $eserve&

P"$2 24O? 2HE B"S0(S OF

Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - 2

! "## $ig%ts $eserve&

CHAPTER 1: 2HAT IS LA3ING?

H2L' in Eng#is% o&&sI for N'

almost always use as it has the most liquidity available.

CHAPTER 5: HO2 TO USE A BETTING

Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - 2

! "## $ig%ts $eserve&

Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - 2

! "## $ig%ts $eserve&

Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - 2

! "## $ig%ts $eserve&

CHAPTER 6: UNDERSTANDING RACE CARDS

2/ =/ A/ >/ E/ </ !/ ''/ '2/ F/ ' /

Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - 2

! "## $ig%ts $eserve&

CHAPTER 7: UNDERSTANDING THE

'/ 2/ =/ >/ </ !/

A/ E/ F/ ' / ''/ '2/

Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - 2

! "## $ig%ts $eserve&

CHAPTER 7: STUD3ING A HORSE8S RACING

Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - 2

! "## $ig%ts $eserve&

PART FOUR: HO2 TO PIC9 A

CHAPTER :: LA3ING HORSES ; FLAT

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