DAILY MARKET UPDATE

02 October 2013, Wednesday

TODAY'S SUMMARY OF MARKET CONDITIONS
SYSTEM The Daily Market Update (DMU) is a regular market report that aims to provide an overview of the market movements that have transpired in the relevant trading day. It contains the following information a. Hourly Summary of System Conditions - Shows the Supply and Demand conditions, resulting HVDC flow schedule, generation mix (ex-ante), and outage per fuel type b. Pricing Conditions - This section contains information on the resulting hourly market prices of the trading day. It provides a summary of the pricing errors, reason for the issuance of pricing errors, and hourly trends of market prices. c. Market Indices - Market indices such as the Residual Supply Index, Pivotal Supplier Frequency Index, and Price Setting Frequency Index may be found in this portion of the report
d. Other Relevant Market Information - Contains all other market information identified to have had a significant impact on the market outcomes

LUZON 6,852 7,348 7,778 5,163 6,442 7,472

VISAYAS 1,377 1,437 1,484 914 1,194 1,430

MIN OFFER, MW AVE MAX MIN DEMAND, MW AVE MAX

8,229 8,785 9,258 6,077 7,636 8,829

SUMMARY OF MARKET PRICES

SYSTEM MIN TODAY (PRELIM) AVE MAX MIN THIS MONTH (PRELIM) AVE MAX PREVIOUS MONTH (FINAL) MIN AVE MAX 1,384 7,648 31,788 190 6,554 33,001 2,735 36,449 LUZON 1,394 7,763 34,502 189 6,515 36,560 2,678 36,479 VISAYAS 1,324 7,024 18,205 195 6,758 38,082 3,028 36,306

Disclaimer/Waiver: This publication aims to provide a timely overview of the actual market trading outcomes that transpired during the relevant trading day in the Wholesale Electricity Spot Market (WESM). As such, PEMC does not make any representation or warranties as to the completeness or accuracy of the information. PEMC, li kewise, accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever, for any loss or costs incurred by the reader arising from, or in relation to, any conclusions or assumptions derived from the information found her ein.

Daily Market Update

Trading Day: 02 October 2013, Wednesday

Ref# DMU_20131002-275

HOURLY SUMMARY OF SYSTEM CONDITIONS

ENERGY OFFERS, AVAILABLE SUPPLY, AND DEMAND (SYSTEM, EX-ANTE)
12000
AVAILABLE SUPPLY OFFER DEMAND

HVDC FLOW SCHEDULE

250 200
VISAYAS TO LUZON LUZON TO VISAYAS

9000
MEGAWATT MEGAWATT

150 100 50
0 -50

6000

3000

-100 -150

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

-200 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

HOURLY TREND OF THE ENERGY OFFERS, AVAILABLE SUPPLY, AND DEMAND AT EX-ANTE

SCHEDULED HVDC FLOW AT EX-ANTE, WHICH CAN EITHER BE FROM THE VISAYAS TO LUZON OR FROM LUZON TO THE VISAYAS. ZERO INDICATES NO POWER FLOW BETWEEN THE LUZON AND VISAYAS GRIDS.

OUTAGE BY FUEL TYPE (SYSTEM, EX-ANTE)

3500
HYDRO GEOTHERMAL COAL NATURAL GAS DIESEL/OIL

GENERATION MIX (SYSTEM, EX-ANTE)

DIESEL/OIL 3.2%

HYDRO 11.9%

2800
NAT GAS 30.4% GEO 14.4%

MEGAWATT

2100

1400

700

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
COAL 40.1%

CAPACITY ON OUTAGE (IN MW) BY RESOURCE TYPE DURING THE TRADING DAY

DAILY GENERATION MIX BY RESOURCE TYPE (IN %) BASED ON THE SCHEDULED GENERATION DURING THE TRADING DAY

WEATHER INFORMATION
REGION LUZON VISAYAS MIN TEMP, C 25 24 MAX. TEMP, C 30 33 RAINFALL, MM 24.00 0.00

Daily Market Update

Trading Day: 02 October 2013, Wednesday

Ref# DMU_20131002-275

PRICING CONDITIONS
PEN SUMMARY
EX-ANTE HOUR LUZON CONDITION 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 PEN PEN PEN PEN PEN PEN PEN PEN PEN PEN PEN PEN PEN PRICES USED LLWAP_D LLWAP_D LLWAP_D LLWAP_D LLWAP_D LLWAP_D LLWAP_D LLWAP_D LLWAP_X LLWAP_X LLWAP_X LLWAP_X LLWAP_X LLWAP_X LLWAP_X LLWAP_X LLWAP_X LLWAP_X LLWAP_X LLWAP_X LLWAP_X LLWAP_D LLWAP_D LLWAP_D VISAYAS CONDITION PRICES USED VLWAP_D VLWAP_D VLWAP_D VLWAP_D VLWAP_D VLWAP_D VLWAP_D VLWAP_D VLWAP_D VLWAP_D VLWAP_D VLWAP_D VLWAP_D VLWAP_D VLWAP_D VLWAP_D VLWAP_D VLWAP_D VLWAP_D VLWAP_D VLWAP_D VLWAP_D VLWAP_D VLWAP_D LUZON CONDITION PRICES USED LLWAP_X LLWAP_X LLWAP_X LLWAP_X LLWAP_X LLWAP_X LLWAP_X LLWAP_X LLWAP_X LLWAP_X LLWAP_X LLWAP_X LLWAP_X LLWAP_X LLWAP_X LLWAP_X LLWAP_X LLWAP_X LLWAP_X LLWAP_X LLWAP_X LLWAP_X LLWAP_X LLWAP_X EX-POST VISAYAS CONDITION PRICES USED VLWAP_X VLWAP_X VLWAP_X VLWAP_X VLWAP_X VLWAP_X VLWAP_X VLWAP_X VLWAP_X VLWAP_X VLWAP_X VLWAP_X VLWAP_X VLWAP_X VLWAP_X VLWAP_X VLWAP_X VLWAP_X VLWAP_X VLWAP_X VLWAP_X VLWAP_X VLWAP_X VLWAP_X 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 L L L L L L L L L L L L L HOUR V U O B C DE PSM V U O B C DE PSM

REASONS FOR PRICING ERRORS

EX-ANTE EX-POST

HOURLY PRICING RESULTS FOR BOTH THE EX-ANTE AND EX-POST MARKET RUNS. IT MUST BE NOTED, HOWEVER, THAT THE PRICING CONDITIONS INDICATED IN THIS TABLE ARE NOT YET FINAL. SUMMARY OF CONDITIONS "-" MARKET RUN HAS NO PRICING ERROR PSM INDICATES THAT A CONGESTION PRICING ERROR WAS ENCOUNTERED DURING THE MARKET RUN AFFECTING EITHER REGION OR BOTH PEN INDICATES THAT A NON-CONGESTION OR LOCALIZED CONGESTION PRICING ERROR WAS ENCOUNTERED DURING THE MARKET RUN AFFECTING EITHER REGION OR BOTH MI INDICATES THAT A MARKET INTERVENTION WAS INITIATED BY THE SO OR MO AFFECTING EITHER REGION OR BOTH SUMMARY OF PRICES USED LWAP_D RTD LOAD-WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE LWAP_X UNCP_D UNCP_X PE AP RTX LOAD-WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE RTD ESTIMATED LOAD REFERENCE PRICE RTX ESTIMATED LOAD REFERENCE PRICE ESTIMATED PRICE IN PLACE OF MRR PRICE ADMINISTERED PRICE

SUMMARY OF THE REASONS BEHIND THE ISSUANCE OF PRICING ERROR NOTICES FOR EACH TRADING INTERVAL

SUMMARY OF NOTATIONS V NODAL VALUE OF LOST LOAD (VoLL) U O B C DE UNDER-GENERATION

INDICATION OF PREFIXES S INDICATES THAT THE PRICING ERROR AFFECTED THE SYSTEM (LUZON-VISAYAS) L MEANS THAT THE PEN WAS ISSUED ONLY IN LUZON INDICATES THAT THE PEN WAS ISOLATED ONLY IN THE VISAYAS

OVER-GENERATION V BASE CASE CONSTRAINT VIOLATION CONTINGENCY CONSTRAINT VIOLATION DATA ERROR OR ERRONEOUS DATA INPUT

* NOTE: PREFIXES ARE AFFIXED FOR THE REMARKS TO INDICATE THE REGION "L" FOR LUZON AND "V" FOR THE VISAYAS

PSM SUBJECTED TO THE PRICE SUBSTITUTION METHODOLOGY FOR CONGESTION

Daily Market Update

Trading Day: 02 October 2013, Wednesday

Ref# DMU_20131002-275
LOAD WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE (SYSTEM AND REGIONAL, EX-ANTE)
ADMIN PRICE UNCONS. PRICE EST. PRICE SYSTEM LWAP MAX NODAL PRICE MIN NODAL PRICE

MARKET PRICES (SYSTEM, EX-ANTE)

40000 SYSTEM LWAP, PESOS PER MWh 40000
NODAL PRICE, PESOS PER MWh

40000

SYSTEM LWAP LUZON PRICE VISAYAS PRICE

32000

32000

32000 LWAP, PESOS PER MWh

24000

24000

24000

16000

16000

16000

8000

8000

8000

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

HOURLY TREND OF PRICES USED AND THE MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM NODAL PRICES DURING THE TRADING DAY

HOURLY TREND OF THE SYSTEM AND REGIONAL LWAP DURING THE TRADING DAY

LOAD WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE DISTRIBUTION (SYSTEM, EX-ANTE)

100
TODAY THIS MONTH

LOAD WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE (PER AREA, EX-ANTE)

NORTH LUZON METRO MANILA SOUTH LUZON LEYTE/SAMAR CEBU NEGROS BOHOL PANAY

40000

LWAP, PESOS PER MWh

80

PERCENT OF TIME

32000

60

24000

40

16000

20

8000

0 0 and Below 0 - 2000 2000 - 4000 4000 - 6000 6000 - 8000 8000 10000 10000 and Above

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

DISTRIBUTION OF THE HOURLY SYSTEM LWAP DURING THE TRADING DAY AND THE CURRENT BILLING MONTH. THE DAILY AND MONTHLY PERCENT OF TIME IS CALCULATED BASED ON A 24-HOUR TIME PERIOD AND THE TOTAL NUMBER OF HOURS DURING THE CURRENT BILLING MONTH AS OF THE TRADING DAY, RESPECTIVELY.

HOURLY LWAP TREND IN VARIOUS AREAS IN LUZON AND THE VISAYAS, SUCH AS NORTH LUZON, METRO MANILA, SOUTH LUZON, LEYTE/SAMAR, CEBU, NEGROS, BOHOL, AND PANAY

Daily Market Update

Trading Day: 02 October 2013, Wednesday

Ref# DMU_20131002-275

MARKET INDICES
MARKET RESIDUAL SUPPLY INDEX VS. PIVOTAL SUPPLIERS (SYSTEM)
200
MARKET RSI PIVOTAL SUPPLIERS

PIVOTAL SUPPLIER FREQUENCY INDEX (SYSTEM)

20 NO. OF PIVOTAL SUPPLIERS - NO 100 PIVOTAL SUPPLIER DURING THE TRADING DAY

160 MARKET RSI (PERCENT)

16

80 PERCENT OF TIME

120

12

60

80

40

40

20

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

HOURLY TREND OF THE MARKET RESIDUAL SUPPLY INDEX (MARKET RSI) PLOTTED AGAINST THE NUMBER OF PIVOTAL SUPPLIER/S. THE RSI MEASURES THE RATIO OF AVAILABLE GENERATION WITHOUT A GENERATING PLANT TO THE TOTAL GENERATION REQUIRED TO SUPPLY THE DEMAND.

THE PERCENTAGE OF TIME THAT A GENERATING PLANT WAS PIVOTAL DURING THE TRADING DAY. THE PERCENTAGE OF TIME IS CALCULATED BASED ON A 24-HOUR TIME PERIOD.

PRICE SETTING FREQUENCY INDEX (SYSTEM, EX-ANTE)

100 PERCENT FREQUENCY 10

80

60

40

20

THE FREQUENCY AND PERCENTAGE OF TIME THAT A GENERATING PLANT BECAME THE MARGINAL GENERATOR (PRICE SETTER) DURING THE TRADING DAY. THE PERCENT OF TIME IS CALCULATED BASED ON A 24-HOUR TIME PERIOD.

FREQUENCY, NO. OF INTERVALS

PERCENT OF TIME

Daily Market Update

Trading Day: 02 October 2013, Wednesday

Ref# DMU_20131002-275

OTHER RELEVANT MARKET INFORMATION

LINE CONSTRAINTS (EX-ANTE)
RESOURCE ID REGION ZAPOTE LUZON NEGROS-PANAY CABLE VISAYAS EQUIPMENT TYPE CONSTRAINT TYPE TRANSFORMER CONTINGENCY LINE BASE CASE LIMIT TYPE VIOLATION BINDING 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

LINE CONSTRAINTS (EX-POST)

- NO CONGESTIONS OBSERVED DURING THE TRADING DAY FOR THE EX-POST RUN

SECURITY LIMIT
RESOURCE ID 2TMO_G02 2TMO_G02 3BACMAN_G02 3ILIJAN_G01 3ILIJAN_G02 REGION LUZON LUZON LUZON LUZON LUZON REASON COMMERCIAL OPERATION REQ COMMERCIAL OPERATION REQ COMMERCIAL OPERATION REQ OUTAGE OF DASMA-ILIJAN LINE OUTAGE OF DASMA-ILIJAN LINE PMIN 20 30 18 450 450 PMAX 20 30 18 450 450 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24