Proceedings 6th Workhshop

The 6
th
International Workshop on Remote Sensing and Environmental Innovations in Mongolia
1

Welcome message

6th International Workshop on Remote Sensing and Environmental Innovations in Mongolia will be
held June 10-11, 2013 in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia. The NUM-ITC-UNESCO Remote Sensing and
Space Science Laboratory of the National University of Mongolia is the local organizer of the
workshop.

The workshop will provide an opportunity to discover cutting-edge geo-information technology and
applications, while at the same time exchanging ideas, research results, professional experiences, and
future visions in the fields of environmental innovation, remote sensing/GIS applications for
environmental studies.
Mongolias changing lifestyles are intensifying pressures on the countrys environmental issues such
as overgrazing, pollution from industrial and urban growth, desertification, and forest and steppe
fire. Mongolia is prone to various natural processes that are driven by global climate change like
drought, dzud, flood, intensive shift of the natural zones and other natural disasters. In addition, an
inadequate attitude of human with its surrounding environment, results in uncontrolled fire occurrence,
deforestation, dry up of rivers and water sources.
Increasing awareness on applications of Remote Sensing and GIS raises demand for satellite data to
address Mongolian environmental problems. Advances in Remote Sensing and GIS offer users a
novel way for obtaining accurate data on actual land use and land cover change. In recent days, unlike
any previous periods in history, satellite data is becoming available and widely used in natural, social
and human sciences.
The workshop will focus on various aspects of environmental problems, and it is believed to provide
an opportunity to discuss how to respond effectively to the regional environmental changes while
strengthening international cooperation and advanced use of Remote Sensing technology. Through the
International workshop, we hope to build an international cooperation on earth observation, and
environmental innovation, and efficient scientific exchange and collaboration.

Dr. Renchin Tsolmon
Chair of the Organizing Committee.

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CONTENTS
Welcome message.....................................................................................................................1
Contents.................................................................................................................................2-4

Climate Hazards in the Gobi
1. CLIMATE HAZARDS IN THE GOBI DESERT
Troy Sternberg...........................................................................................................................................5
2. LAKE CHANGES IN THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE SIBERIAN PERMAFROST
REGION IN MONGOLIA BASED ON HIGH RESOLUTION CORONA AND ALOS DATA
Adiya Saruulzaya, Mamoru Ishikawa, Yamkhin Jambaljav......................................................................5
3. THE GOBI DESERT AS A SETTING FOR US-MONGOLIA-CHINA RELATIONS
Caitlin Werrell, Francesco Femia..............................................................................................................6

4. RESILIENCE OF HERDERS TO CLIMATE, SOCIO ECONOMIC CHANGES IN
MONGOLIA
B. Batbuyan................................................................................................................................................6
5. SCALES, HAZARD MANAGEMENT, AND DZUD IMPACTS CASE STUDY IN HOVD
PROVINCE
Nick Middleton, Henri Rueff, Troy Sternberg, Batjav Batbuyan, David Thomas....................................7
6. PAST AND PRESENT WATER RESOURCES IN SOUTHERN MONGOLIA: A MULTI-
DISCIPLINARY APPROACH
Philippe Paillou, Troy Sternberg................................................................................................................8

Assessing agricultural resources in Mongolia
1. MAPPING OF THE SUMMER FORAGE MASS IN THE FOREST-STEPPE ZONE IN
MONGOLIA USING REMOTE SENSING SATELLITE DATA
Akira Hirano, Bayaraa Batbileg, Danzan Tuvshinbayar, Baatar Ser-Od.............................................9-12
2. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON PASTURE BIOMASS IN MONGOLIA
Erdenetsetseg Baasandai, Erdenetuya Magsar...................................................................................13-17
3. CHARACTERIZATION OF PHENOLOGICAL FEATURES FOR CROPLAND AREA IN
MONGOLIA USING MODIS NDVI DATA
Enkhzaya Tsevengee, Oyunbileg Tsend, Tateishi Ryutaro................................................................18-23
4. GRASSLAND VEGETATION DYNAMIC AND THE RELATIVE ROLES OF CLIMATE
CHANGE AND HUMAN ACTIVITIES IN GRASSLAND DEGRADATION IN SHIYANGHE
RIVER BASIN , NORTHWEST CHINA FROM 1982 TO 2010
Zhou Wei, Li Jianlong, Gang Chengcheng........................................................................................24-29
5. SEASONAL NDVI VARIATION IN GRASSLANDS WITH AND WITHOUT CARAGANA
MI CROPHYLLA IN MONGOLIA
N. Amartuvshin, K. Sinkyu .....................................................................................................................30
6. A CURRENT AND PREDICTION CONDITION ON PASTURE OF THE GOBI REGION,
MONGOLIA
D.Ariungerel, D.Enkhzaya, D.Enkhbat..............................................................................................31-34

Climate change adaptation in North east Asia
1. ENVIRONMENTAL DAMAGE AND CROSS-BORDER MIGRATION IN THE MEKONG
REGION
Lynn Thiesmeyer.....................................................................................................................................35

2. ADAPTIVE STRATEGIES OF HUMAN SETTLEMENTS IN MONGOLIAN CITIES
Will Galloway..........................................................................................................................................35
3. FARMERS ADAPTIVE BEHAVIOR IN INNER MONGOLIA, CHINA
Takafumi Miyasaka..................................................................................................................................36
4. DEVELOPMENT OF EARLY ADAPTATION SYSTEMS FOR LOCAL COMMUNITIES
Akihiro Oba..............................................................................................................................................36
5. DYNAMIC AREA CHANGES OF GRASSLAND ECOSYSTEMS IN NORTH AMERICA,
EUROPE, AUSTRALIA & CHINA IN RESPONSE TO GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE FROM
1911 TO 2000
Gang Chengcheng, LI Jianlong and Zhou Wei.................................................................................37-42
6. LEARNING FROM THE PRACTICE BY APAN NODES IN ASIA-PACIFIC REGION
Puja Sawhney...........................................................................................................................................42
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Natural Resources and Environmental Science
1. MAPPING OF FOREST RESOURCES OF REPUBLIC BURYATIA BASED ON RADAR AND
MULTISPECTRAL DATA
Tumen N.Chimitdorzhiev, Kirill S. Emelyanov, Irene I.Kirbizhekova, rtur .Garmaev, axim .
Gusev..................................................................................................................................................43-46
2. THE IMPACT OF FOREST FIRE ON FOREST COVER TYPES AND FOREST COVER
CHANGE
Nandin-erdene Geserbaatar, Tsolmon Renchin, Oyuntsetseg Dashdorj............................................47-51

3. WATER MAPPING THROUGH TASSELED CAP TRANSFORMATION AND WATER
INDEX BASED ON THE UPDM
Muhammad Hasan Ali Baig, Lifu Zhang, Kai Liu, Xukai Zhang, Tong Shuai................................52-56
4. DEVOLUTION OF PROPERTY RIGHT IN THREE FOREST MANAGEMENT REGIMES IN
NEPAL
Lok Raj............................................................................................................................. ..................57-65
5. RENEWABLE ENERGY FOR LOCAL COMMUNITY: PERMORMANCE OF SOLAR
HYBRID SYSTEM IN THE GOBI
Amarbayar Adiyabat...........................................................................................................................66-70
6. SPATIAL PATTERN OF THE FERN SPECIES: CH.TENUFOLI A -A DISTURBANCE
INDICATOR
Narantuya Davaa................................................................................................................................71-81

Integration of Remote Sensing and Geospatial Technology
1. ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY OF THE CRYOGENIC PROCESS YAMAL
PENINSULA OF RADAR DATA
Tumen N.Chimitdorzhiev, Irene I.Kirbizhekova, Marina O.Leibman, Michael E.Bikov, Yuri
Dvornikov...........................................................................................................................................82-85
2. THE VEGETATION DYNAMICS OF GRASSLAND IN INNER MONGOLIA AND
RELATIVE ROLES OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND HUMAN ACTIVITIES USING 3S
TECHNOLOGIES AND CASA MODELS
LI JianLong, MU ShaoJie, Gang Chengcheng...................................................................................86-91
3. REMOTE SENSING OF AEROSOL CHARACTHERISTICS OVER EAST ASIA
Gerelmaa, D, G. R. Liu, T. H. Lin, and T .H. Kuo.............................................................................92-94
4. ESTIMATION OF AIR POLLUTION PM10 AND PM 2.5 BY USING GIS IN ULAANBAATAR
CITY
Oyudari Vova, Tsolmon Renchin.......................................................................................................95-98

Practicing Adaptation and Community Based Economic Innovation
1. THE IMPROVEMENT OF THE RURAL LIVELIHOODS USING LOCAL RESOURCES AND
GREEN GOVERNANCE SYSTEM IN CASE OF BIGER SUM, MONGOLIA

B.Suvdantsetseg, R.Tsolmon, A.Oba and Wanglin.Y......................................................................99-102
2. VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF PASTORAL SOCIO-ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS TO
CLIMATE CHANGE (In the Case of Bayanhongor aimag)
M.Altanbagana, T.Chuluun, R.Tsolmon........................................................................................103-106
3. THE APPLICATION OF GEOINFORMATION FOR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND
HAZARD
D.Sodnomragchaa,Ts.Naranbolor,

Justin D Pummil......................................................................107-116
4. THE IMPROVEMENT OF THE TOURISM USING LOCAL RESOURCES IN TAVAN BOGD
MOUNTAIN, TSENGEL SOUM, BAYAN-ULGII
Khukhuu T, Enkhjargal.N, Baasankhuu B.............................................................................................117

5. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS AND LOCAL PEOPLE ADAPTATION IN REAL CASE OF
BIGER SOUM, GOVI-ALTAI PROVINCE
Munkh Balt, Baasan Selenge and Balt Myanganbayar..........................................................................117

6. ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEM IN SELENGE PROVINCE
Adiya B, Oyudari V...............................................................................................................................118

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Nano satellite and Cansat technology
1. CANSAT ACTIVITY AND SPACE ENGINEERING EDUCATION PROGRAM IN
MONGOLIA
B.Suvdantsetseg, R.Tsolmon and E.Batmunkh.....................................................................................119
2. HISTORY AND CURRENT STATUS OF JAPANESE CANSAT
Hironori Sahara, Kentaro Nishi......................................................................................................120-123
3. STATUS QUO AND FUTURE PLANS OF UNISEC INTERNATIONAL ACTIVITIES
Emiko Ando, Rei Kawashima........................................................................................................ 124-126
4. USE OF SMALL UNMANNED AIRCRAFT IN ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING
B.Batjargal.................................................................................................................. ...........................127
5. DEVELOPMENT OF A TELEMETRY CANSAT
Begzsuren Tumendemberel, Margad-Erdene Jargalsaihan, Amartuvshin Dagvasumberel, Munkh-
Erdene Zorigbold, Sukhbuyan Galch, Erkhet Vanchinkhuu..................................................................127

6. SICT-TELECOM CANSAT
Uuganbayar Purevdorj...........................................................................................................................127
7. THE FIRST NATIONAL COMPETITION OF MICRO-SATELLITE, Cansatellite of
TEMUULEL
Khashbat. G, Erdenebat. B,

Munkhjargal. G, Buyan-Ulzii. G, Bat-Ochir.B and Batmunkh.B............128
8. THE COSMOS TEAM
Byambajav.R, Khatanbaatar.B, Tungalagtamir.B, Munkhbaatar.C, Temuulen sashka, Ikhbayar
Boldbaatar............................................................................................................................. .................129

9. STUDENTS LEARN SYSTEMS ENGINEERING BY DO-IT-THEMSELVES TRIAL AND
ERROR USING CANSAT
Kenji Nakajima, Takehiro Oohira, Yasuo Arai, Mitsuhiro Masuda, Hironori Sahara...................129-132

Posters
1. DYNAMICS RESEARCH OF ICE COVER OF LAKE BAIKAL BASED RADAR IMAGES
Tumen N.Chimitdorzhiev, Gennady I.Tat'kov, Irene I.Kirbizhekova, Michael E.Bikov, Tsyren
A.Tubanov......................................................................................................................................133-136

2. FOURIER TRANSFORM ANALYSIS OF METEOROLOGICAL TIME SERIES DATA FOR
SOME SITES OF MONGOLIA
Baatarchuluun Tsermaa, Ganbat Batkhuu, Narangarav Tumur-Uyl and Batsukh Garmaa...................137
3. AN ESTIMATION OF LAND SURFACE TEMPERATURE USING SATELLITE DERIVED
DATA
S. Javzmaa, E.Munkhtsetseg, M.Odbayar, T.Battsetseg................................................................137-140
4. DEFORESTATION ASSESSMENT BY INTEGRATING MULTI-TEMPORAL SATELLITE
IMAGE AND INTENSIFIED FIELD SURVEY
Amartuvshin

Sumiya, Udval Bayarsaikhan, Tsendsuren Dagdan..................................................141-145
5. GEOSPATIAL DATABASE AT CADASTRAL LEVEL
Uuganbayar Tsembel, K. Ram Mohan Rao, Janaki Rama Suresh G.............................................146-149

6. DETERMINATION OF KHOVD RIVERS FRACTAL DIMENSION USING SATELLITE
REMOTE SENSING DATA
B.Bolortuu1, R.Tsolmon, O.Lkhagva.............................................................................................150-153
7. THE APPLICATION OF GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM IN LAND VALUATION
Nyamsuren O, Enkhmanlai A, Ser-Od B........................................................................................154-158
8. OZONE MONITORING FOR RESULT OF OMI SYSTEM
Tumenbaysgalan Tsogtbaatar and Jambajamts Lkhamjav.............................................................159-161
9. USAGE OF GPS NETWORK IN IONOSPHERIC MEASUREMENT
Munkhdelger Tsend-Ayush, Jambajamts Lkhamjav......................................................................162-165
10. THE IMPACT OF FOREST FIRE ON FOREST COVER TYPES AND FOREST COVER
CHANGE
Battsetseg.T, Tsolmon.R.................................................................................................................166-176
11. GEOLOGICAL MAPPING USES LANDSAT 4-5TM SATTELITE DATA
Undram G,

Tsolmon Renchin , B.Bayartungalag

, S.Norovsuren..........................................................176

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Climate Hazards in the Gobi
CLIMATE HAZARDS IN THE GOBI DESERT
Troy Sternberg
Oxford University

Abstracts
Climate hazards are an integral part of the Gobi Desert environment. Recent events Mongolias 2009-
2010 dzud and Chinas 2011 drought, exemplify hazard severity and their impact on human and
environmental systems. Across the region hazard documentation, community exposure, government
preparedness and disaster mitigation remain major tasks. Risk and resilience across the trans-border
region are related to agro-pastoral livelihoods, development patterns, policy implementation and
landscape constraints. Today politics, culture and economics in China and Mongolia shape perceptions
of the Gobi and determine future directions. Grounding climate hazards in the physical and socio-
economic realities of the Gobi Desert provides a practical forum to address and engage with the
challenges hazards present.

LAKE CHANGES IN THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE SIBERIAN
PERMAFROST REGION IN MONGOLIA BASED ON HIGH
RESOLUTION CORONA AND ALOS DATA
Adiya Saruulzaya
1,2
, Mamoru Ishikawa
1
, and Yamkhin Jambaljav
2
1
Faculty of Environmental Earth Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan
2
Institute of Geography, Mongolian Academy of Science, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
E-mail: adiya@wwwgeo.ees.hokudai.ac.jp

Key words: Lake changes, Permafrost, Mongolia, Siberia, CORONA, and ALOS
Abstract
We investigated temporal and areal lake changes on the Mongolian permafrost and explored the
influences of hydrologic and climatologic variations on the dynamics. In total areas of 1062 lakes in
summer were precisely outlined on the high resolution images of CORONA KH-4, KH-4A, and KH-4B
between 1962 and 1970, and of ALOS/AVNIR-2 between 2006 and 2008. Lake deformations between
1960s and 2000s were quantified by geographic information system (GIS) tools, in which resolution has
been successfully reached to 0.01 ha. We found that the area and number of lakes smaller than 10 ha have
increased in the continuous permafrost zone, while they have decreased in the isolated permafrost zone.
The lakes larger than 25 ha, on the other hand, have remained almost stable in both permafrost zones.
These areal changes of lake were well corresponded with those of the hydro-climatologic variations. Due
to ongoing atmospheric warming, heterogeneously distributed ice-rich grounds have thawed and thus the
number of small lakes has increased over undulated terrain generated in the continuous permafrost zone.
The decreases of small lakes were likely caused by negative trend of water budget in the isolated
permafrost zone. The small lakes, outlined precisely by well rectified high resolution satellite images,
behave sensitively to the hydro-climatologic variations, thus are useful indicator of permafrost
degradation over Mongolian permafrost.

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THE GOBI DESERT AS A SETTING FOR
US-MONGOLIA-CHINA RELATIONS

Caitlin Werrell
1
, Francesco Femia
2
The Center for Climate and Security 1025 Connecticut Ave., NW Suite 1000
Washington, DC 20036,
e-mail: cwerrell@climateandsecurity.org, ffemia@climateandsecurity.org
website: http://www.climateandsecurity.org

Abstract
The United States has recently announced its intention torebalance to Asia. Mongolia is considered
an important strategic partner in this move by the United States, and traditionally the United States has
been considered Mongolias third neighbor. The purpose of this study is to explore the relationship
between the United States and Mongolia in a time of shifting foreign policy objectives and shifting
climatic conditions. The study will explore how the Gobi desert geography acts as a setting for US-
Mongolia-China relations, and the ways in which climatic changes, both locally and internationally,
may influence these relations and broader security in the region.

RESILIENCE OF HERDERS TO CLIMATE, SOCIO ECONOMIC
CHANGES IN MONGOLIA

B. Batbuyan
Center for Nomadic Pastoralism Studies,
E-mail: b_batbuyan@yahoo.com
Key words: climate change, grassland, institution
Abstract
During the last 20 years Mongolia has witnessed complex changes to its environmental, socio-
economic, and political system. Due to climate changes there has been a decrease in surface water
sources and pasture productivity. This had significantly impacts on pastoral livelihoods and
pasture land sustainability. The study presents a socio-economic study that aims to better understand
both herder livelihood strategy and their ability to adapt to systemic changes. Findings show that
mobility remains essential adaptive strategy for herders. There are many different forms of institutions
exist and customary khot ail is one of key that have existed and through which the herders
participate in economic, social, cultural life and involved pasture management practices.

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SCALES, HAZARD MANAGEMENT, AND DZUD IMPACTS CASE
STUDY IN HOVD PROVINCE
Nick Middleton, Henri Rueff, Troy Sternberg, Batjav Batbuyan, David Thomas
School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, United Kingdom
Abstract
Climate hazards in Mongolia can severely impact the livestock sector which represents 16% of the
national income. The 2009-2010 dzud resulted in the loss of 10m animals. Understanding physical and
human factors explaining pastoralists vulnerability is hence essential for contingency planning and
mitigating losses. Local variability in disaster preparedness and response are often overlooked in
Mongolia. The countrys vastness implies complex coordination and logistics processes to ensure
adequate relief to remote areas in order to respond to drought and dzud shocks. While reports assessing
the consequences of climate disasters on livelihoods and livestock losses have a provincial and sub-
district breakdown accounting, little emphasis is given to how environmental and human factors
contrast in adjacent areas, and hence form site-specific conditions. If preparedness more than response
is key in limiting damages, unravelling local variability needs to be documented. This variability is also
important in understanding a communitys level of exposure to hazard given its prevailing
environmental conditions, local and national governance, as well as the likelihood to receive adequate
relief timely at the onset of an occurring hazard. This paper analyses the environmental and human
causes explaining the striking contrast in livestock losses observed between the Hovd provinces
uplands (UL) (Altai Mountains) and southern lowlands (LL) (Altai foothills) sub-districts during the
2009-2010 dzud. UL were much less affected in terms of animal losses than LL and this despite the
higher elevation and longer winters. Preliminary results show that pre-winter conditions observed by
means of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index do not appear to have been significantly poorer
than regular years in either LL or UL. The latter is validated by the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI)
showing no drought conditions the summer before the dzud occurrence in both regions. Satellite
imagery shows nevertheless that LL endured significantly more snow cover than UL. Likewise, sub-
district snow depth observations show that throughout the winter LL received more snow than usual
from September until April with peaks in October and April while UL had close to no snow cover
during the critical winter months. UL received nevertheless a slight increase of snow in May and June
when compared to a 12-year mean for the same months. Interviewed pastoralists and district officials
have also reported that relief assistance had merely reached pastoralists due to accessibility
complications with unusual snow depth in LL. These findings show that, counter intuitively, winter
conditions were milder at higher elevation. Another regional feature characterizing the UL Altai
Mountains is that late cold spells in spring or even early July can foster livestock losses, because of
exposure of animals to lower temperatures once sheared. This explains in part why the Duut sub-
district endured fewer losses during the 2009-2010 declared dzud than the previous year (2008-2009)
when an unforeseen late cold spell affected herds. This ongoing study will further explore how main
climate systems could have influenced this contrasting situation. Providing a higher resolution analysis
in understanding the impact of climate hazard in a vast country such as Mongolia can help improving
preparedness and response efficiency.

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PAST AND PRESENT WATER RESOURCES IN SOUTHERN
MONGOLIA: A MULTI-DISCIPLINARY APPROACH

PHILIPPE PAILLOU
1
, TROY STERNBERG
2

Universit Bordeaux 1, UMR 5804 LAB, 2 rue de l'Observatoire, 33270 Floirac, France
philippe.paillou@obs.u-bordeaux1
Oxford University, School of Geography and the Environment, Oxford, UK
troy.sternberg@geog.ox.ac.uk

Abstract
In arid regions, present water resources are mainly related to fossil aquifers. Such aquifers were fed in
the past by rivers and lakes, which left tracks in the present-day topography. We show here how the use
of global topography provided by the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission, can help to understand and
possibly develop local water resources. We considered wells located in the Orvokhangai province in
Central Mongolia and analyzed their geographical location with respect to the topography provided by
SRTM: it appears that many wells are correlated to paleo-channels that were feeding a large paleo-lake,
which was covering more than 10,000 km
2
in the past. The past morphology revealed by SRTM can be
useful to further estimate water resources available, and plan the future exploitation of fossil aquifers in
the region for development purposes.

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Assessing agricultural resources in Mongolia
MAPPING OF THE SUMMER FORAGE MASS IN THE FOREST-
STEPPE ZONE IN MONGOLIA USING REMOTE SENSING
SATELLITE DATA
Akira HIRANO
1
, Bayaraa BATBILEG
2
, Danzan TUVSHINBAYAR
3
, Baatar SER-OD
4
1
Senior Researcher, Japan International Research Center for Agricultural Sciences, 1-1 Ohwashi, Tsukuba,
Ibaraki, 305-8686 Japan; Tel: +81-29-838-6346, Fax: +81-29-838-6342, E-mail: akhirano@jircas.affrc.go.jp
2
Lecturer, School of Agrobiology, Mongolian State University of Agriculture, Zaisan 53, Ulaanbaatar,
Mongolia; Tel: +976-99277708, E-mail: saihanaa_b2000@yahoo.com
3
Mongolia; Tel: +976-99996904, E-mail: dtuvshinbayar@yahoo.com
4
Mongolia; Tel: +976-96641484, E-mail: seko_mgl_mn@yahoo.com

Key words: herbaceous standing crop, NDVI, forest-steppe

Abstract
Prompt and accurate assessment of pasture resources is a prerequisite for formulating and
implementing various planning and management activities in Mongolia. Since 2006, weve been
conducting a study on pasture biomass derivation in the forest-steppe zone in Bornuur sum (district),
Mongolia, approximately 100 km north of Ulaanbaatar. We performed an in-depth regression analysis
between the dried weight of aboveground biomass and normalized difference vegetation indices
(NDVIs) derived from close-range spectral measurements. Samples from 14 biomassNDVI pairs with
varying vegetation yields produced a correlation coefficient of 0.83 (R
2
= 0.68), indicating a reasonable
performance in estimating herbaceous standing crop at the study site. We then confirmed the mutual
compatibility between close-range, ground-based spectral measurements and corresponding spectral
data obtained by high-resolution (28 m) satellite sensors with a correlation coefficient of 0.93 (R
2
=
0.86). The agreement between ground- and satellite-based data encouraged us to extend the knowledge
we gained from our ground-based spectral measurements to immediate neighboring regions with
similar vegetation types. Finally, we validated the spatial compatibility between data captured via high-
resolution satellites and those captured by frequently observing satellites, which provided justification
for extending our mapping capabilities for herbaceous standing crop to much larger areas with similar
vegetation in the forest-steppe zone.

Introduction
Quantity of summer forage, particularly at the end of the vegetation growing season, sets
the base for the available pasture resources during the upcoming severe winter in Mongolia.
It is, therefore, very important to monitor and evaluate the available forage. Technologies
exist that use remotely sensed satellite images to capture synoptic landscape information over
large areas in short time period. The objectives of this study are: 1) to establish an empirical
relationship between NDVI and corresponding amount of herbaceous standing crop; and 2) to
develop a workable method for quickly mapping the quantity of pasture resources at a given
time, e.g., at the end of the vegetation growing season, which lays the foundation for
forecasting winter and spring herbage availability.

Study area and data
Our study area was located in Bornuur sum (district) (4839 N, 10616 E; elevation 1100
m above mean sea level; precipitation 200300 mm/year), approximately 100 km north of the
nations capital Ulaanbaatar. The study area lies in the forest-steppe zoneone of seven
major natural ecological zones in Mongolia classified by annual precipitation and vegetation
type.
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We conducted monthly vegetation clipping in areas that experienced varying grazing
intensities and different amounts of herbaceous standing crop and acquired corresponding
field-based spectral data using a portable, handheld spectroradiometer (MS-720 by EKO
Instruments, Co., Ltd., Japan; 4001200 nm). The vegetation in the study area reaches
maximum cover in the beginning of August every year. We programmed two different high-
resolution satellite sensorsDigital Globes QuickBird (multispectral, 2.4-m pixel size) and
Taiwans FORMOSAT-2 (multispectral, 8.0-m pixel size)at this phenological peak to
guarantee temporal correspondence with the ground-based spectral data acquisition. Since
large-scale estimation of regional herbaceous standing crop using high-resolution satellite
sensors is not economically feasible and lacks adequate data acquisition frequency, we need
to consider the practical use of reasonably priced and frequently observing satellite sensors.
Consequently, it is important to evaluate the compatibility between the information extracted
from high-resolution satellite sensors and that from low-resolution but frequently observing
satellite sensors. For this reason, we collected the Terra/MODIS NDVI data (250-m pixel
size) for the entire study period.

Methodology
We established a biomass-sampling plot with fifteen 5 m 5 m grids (5 rows 3 columns)
containing varying quantities of biomass. We placed a 0.70 m 0.70 m (0.5 m
2
) quadrat five
times in the grid and measured the spectral reflectance of the aboveground biomass in the
quadrat using a portable, handheld spectroradiometer. We clipped the aboveground biomass
in the quadrat all the way down to the soil surface and separated them into living and dead
biomass and thin- and broad-leaved plant types. We then dried and weighed the samples.
Using the spectral reflectance measurements, we computed the NDVI values five times for
each 5 m 5 m grid, assigned the averaged value for each grid, and compared this value with
the average dry biomass weight for the same grid.
We scheduled two high-resolution satellites to fly over the study area and record the
multispectral data while our ground team collected in-situ spectral data of the vegetation
samples. This enabled us to conduct a compatibility assessment between the ground- and
space-based spectral data (Hirano et al. 2008). To validate the applicability of the relationship
between the spectral measurements and the amount of herbaceous standing crop, we extended
our sampling areas to approximately 24 km 24 km and collected samples from areas with
varying aboveground biomass and different pasture usages. Then, we obtained the
Terra/MODIS vegetation indices data for the corresponding time period and geographical
extent to assess the compatibility between the high-resolution NDVI values and the low-
resolution but frequently observing NDVI values (Batbileg et al. 2010).

Results and discussion
Regression analysis between aboveground biomass and the NDVI computed from the
close-range spectral measurements produced a coefficient of determination R
2
= 0.68 (P <
0.01) indicating a reasonable performance in estimating biomass using NDVI values (Fig. 1).
The equation obtained by this analysis was as follows:

Aboveground biomass = 375.37 NDVI 68.08, (1)

where Aboveground biomass is the dry weight of herbaceous standing crop (g/m
2
).

Aboveground biomass linearly increased with the NDVI values up to approximately 0.65
and then sharply increased and exceeded the values corresponding to the linear trend. This is
attributable to the well-known NDVI saturation phenomena. NDVI is expected to saturate at
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high biomass values as it represents the greenness of two-dimensional plant cover rather than
actual plant biomass (Hobbs, 1995). To account for this nonlinearity, we considered curve
fitting based on nonlinear (e.g., exponential) functions. However, our goal was to develop the
simplest model that would adequately describe our data and also be sufficiently robust to be
applied in neighboring regions with diverse pasture conditions; therefore, we opted to use a
linear regression model for this study
We confirmed a nearly 1:1 linear relationship between ground-based and high-resolution
satellite (QuickBird, 2.4-m pixel size) NDVI values. This enabled us to extend the ground-
based spectral measurements to immediate neighboring regions with similar vegetation types.
Then, we compared the high-resolution satellite (FORMOSAT-2, 8-m pixel size) and the
corresponding frequently observing satellite (MODIS, 250-m pixel size) NDVI values and
obtained a correlation coefficient of 0.73 (P < 0.001) with as many as 9455 pairs (Fig. 2).
From this strong correlation, we concluded that frequently observing satellite NDVI values
can be used to map the quantity of herbaceous standing crop using the same equation
established on the ground.

We can therefore link estimates of plot-scale herbaceous standing crop (sampling
resolution, submeter to a few meters; sampling frequency, 3/year) all the way up to
regional scale estimation (sampling resolution, 250 m; sampling frequency, 24/year) (Fig.
3).

Conclusion
We carried out a regression analysis on herbaceous standing crop and its field-collected
spectral data and obtained an empirical equation for estimating aboveground biomass using
NDVI. The spectral measurements collected with close-range remote sensing and those
observed by high-resolution satellite sensors proved exchangeable. Spectral measurements
obtained with a frequently observing satellite showed reasonable agreement with those
obtained by a high-resolution satellite. Consequently, we concluded that this empirical
equation could be used to estimate the mass of herbaceous standing crop in the forest-steppe
zone with similar vegetation types.
Fig. 1. Regression analysis of
aboveground biomass and NDVI.
Fig. 2. Relationship between the
frequently observing satellite (MODIS
NDVI) and the high-resolution satellite
(FORMOSAT-2 NDVI).
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Acknowledgments
This study is part of a collaborative research between the Japan International Research
Center for Agricultural Sciences (JIRCAS) and the Mongolian State University of
Agriculture (MSUA) entitled Development of a sustainable agro-pastoral system in
the dry areas of Northeast Asia (20062010).

References
Batbileg, B., Hirano, A., & Shindo, K. (2010) Mapping summer time pasture amount in
north-central Mongolia, Proceedings of the 31st Asian Conference on Remote Sensing
(ACRS), CD-ROM, Hanoi, Vietnam.
Hirano, A., Batbileg, B. & Shindo, K. (2008) Cost-effective pasture resources estimation
from space, Proceedings of the 29th Asian Conference on Remote Sensing (ACRS), CD-
ROM , Colombo, Sri Lanka.
Hobbs, T. (1995) The use of NOAA-AVHRR NDVI data to assess herbage production in the
arid rangelands of Central Australia, International Journal of Remote Sensing, 16, 1289-
1302.

Fig.3. Scaling up the herbaceous standing crop estimation.
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CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON PASTURE BIOMASS IN
MONGOLIA

Erdenetsetseg Baasandai
1
, Erdenetuya Magsar
*2

1
Head of Agrometeorology Section, Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment, www.imh.mn,
Tel: +976-99176627, Email: erdtsetseg@yahoo.com
*2
Senior Remote Sensing Specialist, National Remote Sensing Center of Mongolia, www.icc.mn,
Tel: +976-99055874, Email: erdenetuya@namem.mn, m_erdenetuya@yahoo.com

Key words: climate change, biomass, dynamics, Century model
Abstract
The main objective of this study is the estimation of the pasture biomass changes with accordance of
simulation outcomes of the CENTURY model of plant-soil ecosystem covering territory of Mongolia.
Within the study framework we have used the fenced pasture biomass data from 1960s to 2008, over
60 meteorological stations and simulation data of the carbon, nitrogen, over ground and underground
biomass, potential evapotranspiration, evaporation, transpiration and precipitation data over grasslands.
In order to distinguish the climate change impacts to the pasture biomass changes we have separated
the observation data range into 2 time periods as before and after 1990.
The simulated climatic and other parameters were estimated meteorological station based and their
differences between 2 time periods were calculated and illustrated as their spatial distribution. With
purpose to make comparison of present situation to future situation used Climate Change Scenarios
under A1B emission scenarios by HadCM3 Climate Model for 2020 and 2050.
For the present situation of all parameters stands long term average from 1960 to 2008 and for future
change estimation used Climate Change scenario A1B and statistical values separately by different
ecosystems over following natural zones such as, high mountain, forest steppe, steppe and desert zones.
In this paper we also compared both observed and simulated values of pasture grazing ability in various
pasture types and in different soil types.

Introduction
Mongolia is a landlocked country bordering with the Russian Federation in the north and the
Peoples Republic of China in the south with territory of 1,564,116 sq km area. The country
has a severe continental climate due to the fact that it is landlocked and a great distance from
oceans, surrounded by high mountains and has a high elevation of more than one and half km
above sea level. Consequently, the main characteristics of the climate are its four distinctive
seasons, high fluctuations of temperature, low precipitation and clear climate differences in
latitudinal as well as in altitude zones. The annual mean temperature is about -8
0
C to 6
0
C and
the annual precipitation varies from 50 mm in the Gobi desert to 400 mm in the northern
mountainous area. About 85 percent of the total precipitation falls from April to September.
The total GHG emissions in Mongolia are comparatively low, but the per capita rate of GHG
emissions is relatively high compared to other developing countries because of the cold
continental climate and the long heating season, the use of fossil fuels for energy and the low
efficiency of fuel and energy.
The Mongolia National Action Programme on Climate Change (NAPCC), approved in 2000,
aims not only to meet the UNFCCC obligations, but also to set priorities for action and to
integrate climate change concerns into other national and sectoral development plans and
programmes.
The Government has established an inter-disciplinary and inter-sectoral National Climate
Committee (NCC) led by the Minister of Environment and Green Development, to coordinate
and guide national activities and measures aimed to adapt to climate change and to mitigate
GHG emissions.
According to meteorological observation data since the 1940s, the mean air temperature has
increased and precipitation has decreased in most areas of Mongolia. Climate model results
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and dendrochronology analysis for 2000 years confirm significant changes in the countrys
climate over the past 40 years.

Methods
Observation records for the period of 1940 to 2008 show that the annual mean air
temperature of Mongolia increased by 2.14
0
C. Due to global warming, the frequency of
extreme high temperatures has grown, while in contrast, the occurrence of extreme low
temperatures has dropped. In term of precipitation, there is an increasing trend of winter
precipitation and a decreasing trend of summer rainfall.
In order to estimate the pasture biomass changes used the simulation outcomes of the
CENTURY model of plant-soil ecosystem covering territory of Mongolia. Within the study
framework we have used the fenced pasture biomass data from 1960s to 2008 over 60
meteorological stations and the results of CENTURY model simulation of the carbon,
nitrogen, phosphorus and sulfur long term dynamics and as well as ground and underground
biomass, potential evapotranspiration, evaporation, transpiration and precipitation data over
grasslands.
In order to distinguish the climate change impacts to the pasture biomass changes we have
separated the observation data range into 2 time periods as before and after 1990.
The assumption was that a model with minimum errors in the calculation of the past climate
can project future scenarios of climate change for Mongolia. Based on statistical
interpretation of the global climate models, the HadCM3 model of the HADLEY center was
the most suitable for the specific conditions of Mongolia.

Results and Discussions
In the coming century, climate change will probably radically change the traditional way of
life that has been established in Mongolia for thousands of years. The effects of climate
change will cause considerable damage not only to the ecosystem and natural resources but
also to the economic and social sectors of the country.
The HadCM3 model results show that the annual precipitation will generally increase.
However, there will be small decline in the summer season between 2011-2030 according to
A2 and A1B GHG emission scenarios. Precipitation in the summer season will increase by
less than 10 percent, which is smaller than the rise in winter precipitation compared to the
normal climate.
Due to climate change, it is anticipated that winter is becoming milder and snowy, while
summer is becoming hotter and drier even though there will be a slight increase of
precipitation based on overall climate change assessment.

I mpacts of climate change
Ecosystem: Remote sensing analysis of different satellites revealed that areas without grass
(or barren) increased by 46 percent from 1992 to 2002. In 2006, the barren areas almost
tripled, while forest areas decreased by more than 26 percent during the same period.
According to net primary production (NPP) of the ecosystem estimated by the Century 4.0
model, the ecosystems of Mongolia will shift to the north especially in the 2080s due to
increased temperature and evapotranspiration. The steppe zone is likely to be pushed by the
semi-desert zone from the south and will decrease significantly. Due to climate warming, the
semi-desert zone will push the steppe zone to the north, especially in 2080. In 2080, forest-
steppe and steppe areas will decrease, as a result of a decrease in rainfall and an increase in
temperature in the growing season.
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Also, the dryness index, which is characterized by the ratio of total annual precipitation to the
annual potential evapotranspiration, was used to confirm ecosystem changes in the future.
The future dryness index can reflect possible vegetation and natural zone shifts in the future.
Rangeland: Pasture observation data analysis confirms that pasture biomass has dropped by
approximately 20-30 percent and plant species have been impoverished in the last 40 years.
Despite many challenges and the complexity of the system, an impact assessment of climate
change on rangeland was conducted, based on the Century 4.0 model results. According to
biomass changes, the negative effect of high temperature increase of more than 30C cannot
be balanced even by 20 percent increased precipitation in the forest steppe and the steppe.
However, a precipitation increase by 20 percent would be favorable for pasture in the Altai
Mountains and the desert steppe in Mongolia. The pasture biomass would decrease in almost
all areas, especially in the forest steppe and the steppe.
Pasture insects and rodents spreading: In recent decades, some insects and rodents have
become more widespread due to significant climate change, drought and weather extreme
events. In particular, rodents and grasshoppers spread widely during the drought years of
2000 to 2002 and extensively damaged pasture. In addition, pests increased in crop lands
leading to significant decrease in harvests. Major challenges of the research have been the
non existence of a systematic observation and monitoring system of harmful insects and
rodents and a lack of data and information for impact assessment for future time periods.
Desertification: Nowadays, about 70 percent of the grassland of the territory has been
affected by decertification to a certain extent. In particular, future temperature increases
during the growing season, the increase of potential evapotranspiration, a precipitation
decrease in most areas or a lack of precipitation increase to cover raised evapotranspiration
needs, hot spells that cause crop stress, intensified heavy rainfall (20 percent), drop in the
total number of rainfall hours, early melting of snow cover, longer periods of bare soil from
snow cover until the onset of greening and a growing number of dust storms are the major
factors leading to desertification.

Results of the HadCM3 model by HADLEY center
The assumption was that a model with minimum error in calculation, of past climate
conditions can project a future climate change scenario for Mongolia. Based on statistical
interpretation of the global climate models outputs, the HadCM3 model of the HADLEY
center was the most suitable for the specific conditions of Mongolia. Results of the HadCM3
model are presented in Table 1.
Table 1 shows that the intensity of warming in the summer season is higher than winter and
the amounts are 1.1-1.4
0
C in 2011-2030, 2.7-3.6
0
C in 2046-2065 and 3.7-6.3
0
C in 2080-
2099. Winter temperatures will have increased by 0.2-0.7
0
C, 1.6- 2.5
0
C and 3.0-3.8 0C in
the corresponding periods.

Table 1. Results of HadCM3 model by HADLEY center
Period Temperature change,
o
C Precipitation change, %
2011-2030 2046-2065 2080-2099 2011-2030 2046-2065 2080-2099
Annual A2 1.0 2.7 5.0 2 9 15
A1B 0.9 3.0 4.6 0 7 16
B1 0.8 2.1 3.1 3 6 11
Winter A2 0.7 2.3 4.2 14 19 55
A1B 0.2 2.5 3.8 0 23 41
B1 0.2 1.6 3.0 7 14 32
Summer A2 1.1 3.1 6.3 -2 4 7
A1B 1.4 3.6 5.6 -4 3 11
B1 1.2 2.7 3.7 2 0 8

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In general, the annual precipitation will have increased; however, there is a small decline in
the summer season in 2011-2030 according to A2 and A1B GHG emission scenarios.
Precipitation in the summer season will have increased by less than 10 percent, which is
smaller than the winter precipitation rise compared to their normal climate. The summer
precipitation will have decreased by 2-4 percent in 2011-2030, increased by 0-4 percent in
2046-2065 and 7-11 percent in 2080-2099. The winter precipitation is projected to increase
by 0-14 percent, 14-23 percent and 32-55 percent, corresponding to the periods mentioned
above.

Results of Century 4.0 model
Ecosystem shift is obviously a comprehensive process over many years and the net primary
production (NPP) was estimated by the Century 4.0 model in order to assess the impact of
climate change on the ecosystem in the periods 2010-2039, 2040- 2069 and 2070-2099.
According to the HadCM3 model, the taiga forest (NPP>2960Cg/m2) is expected to increase.
This is especially noticeable in the years 2020 and 2050.
However, it does not mean trees will grow naturally. There is the possibility of advantageous
conditions for trees to grow if the biomass increases and there are no effects from human
activity. In 2080, the forest-steppe is likely to turn into steppe. But the SRES A2 scenario
shows that the rate of warming would be slow and as a result the process of forest-steppe
turning into steppe would also be slow.
The steppe zone (NPP=131-250Cg/m2) is likely to be encroached on by the semi desert zone
from the south and will decrease significantly. Due to climate warming, the semi-desert zone
will push the steppe zone to the north, especially by 2080. In 2080, forest-steppe and steppe
areas will decrease; this will be caused by a decrease in rainfall and an increase in
temperature in the growing season (June to September). Even, if the amount of precipitation
increases by up to 1.6-2.7 mm, the temperature is likely to increase by 4-7
0
C which will
cause higher evapotranspiration and make the air dryer.
The percentage of desert zone (NPP=60Cg/m2) tends to expand to the north. Although the
amount of precipitation is expected to increase in the semi-desert and the desert zone, they
are likely to expand. In other words, the increased amount of precipitation is still not enough
for rapid evapotranspiration demand.

Rangeland
The main constituent of the Mongolian ecosystem is native grasslands. Apparently, its origin,
history, composition, its variety of living organisms and development are unique because of
the origin and development of the climate, the ground surface and its ecosystems.
Data analysis of pasture observation confirms that the pasture biomass edible for livestock
has decreased. For example, the pasture biomass has dropped by approximately 20-30 percent
in the last 40 years. Pasture monitoring data from the National Agency for Meteorology,
Hydrology and Environmental Monitoring (NAMHEM) for 1960s to 2007 was used to
analyze changes in pasture biomass in different natural zones. The study showed that in most
areas the biomass tended to decrease.

Rangeland future changes
It is a challenge to estimate the future of grassland ecosystems in the long term., for, this
depends on the following factors:
Changes in pasture land use
Future climate change and extreme conditions such as droughts and hot temperatures
Anthropogenic and technology pressures such as population growth, air pollution, use
of chemicals to destroy weeds, insects and rodents, and other socio economic issues
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Ecosystem changes.
In the study of grassland changes, some factors such as grazing intensity, soil erosion and
fires were not considered. Consequently, the Century 4.0 model that was developed to
analyze the dynamics of soil organic matter in North America was used in the research.
Pasture biomass at 37 representative sites of Mongolia was evaluated using the Century
model within incremental scenarios of temperature increases of 1,2,3,4 and 50C and
precipitation changes of -30, -20, -10, 10, 20 and 30 percent. With respect to biomass changes,
the negative effects of a high increase in temperature by more than 3
0
C cannot be balanced
even by increased precipitation of 20 percent in the forest steppe and the steppe. However, a
precipitation increase of 20 percent would be favorable for pasture in the Altai Mountains and
the desert steppe in Mongolia.
Pasture biomass changes during the periods 2011-2030, 2046-2065 and 2080-2099 from the
base period 1961-2008 were estimated under Had-CM3 climate scenario of HADLEY center
and A1B emission scenario (Table 2).

Table 2. Pasture biomass change in future
Vegetation zones Aboveground biomass,
g/m2
Aboveground biomass changes in %
1961 - 2008 2011 - 2030 2046 - 2065
The high mountains 13.89 -17.43 -22.46
The forest steppe 68.22 -28.41 -37.45
The steppe 38.52 -22.40 -31.46
The desert steppe 8.93 -4.30 -7.36

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CHARACTERIZATION OF PHENOLOGICAL FEATURES FOR
CROPLAND AREA IN MONGOLIA USING MODIS NDVI DATA

ENKHZAYA Tsevengee
1
, OYUNBILEG Tsend
1
and TATEISHI Ryutaro
2
1
Researcher, Laboratory for Agricultural GIS and Remote Sensing, Nart Research, Training and Production
Center, Mongolian State University of Agriculture, Research institute of animal husbandry building 419,
Khan-Uul, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
Tel: +976-96033319, E-mail: tse_enkhzaya@yahoo.com, agrogis@yahoo.com
2
Professor, Center for Environmental Remote Sensing, Chiba University, 1-33, Yayoi, Inage-ku, Chiba, 263-
8522, Japan, Tel: +81-43-290-2964, E-mail: tateishi@faculty.chiba-u.jp

KEY WORDS: Cropland, Phenological feature, MODIS, NDVI, Mongolia
Abstract
This paper presents phenological feature analysis on temporal trend and spatial pattern for cropland
area in selected four sums from Tuv province in Mongolia. Information on phenological features is
helpful in understanding the impact of climatic, ecological and socio-economic drivers. Phenological
parameters linked to vegetative growth events were extracted from 250 m resolution, 16-day composite
time series of MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data from 2008 to 2012.
NDVI data were analyzed using TIMESAT software with an adaptive Savitzky-Golay filter that
developed for generate smoothed time series of NDVI data as well as to estimate the phenological
parameters. Attempts to quantify spatial changes and characterization for different types of crop using
phenological parameters were made besides of the generating temporal trend and spatial pattern for
both of the productivity and time related parameters. This study demonstrates usefulness of the multi
temporal MODIS images to deriving spatial and temporal patterns of phenological features for
cropland area.

Introduction
Sustainable land and water management is essential for securing food production
under the situation of climate change, decreasing water resources and growing population
especially in the face of limited arable land. Accurate crop distribution maps can substantially
support this effort as they contribute to three important aspects: planning, modeling, and
monitoring of land and water allocation in agriculture. This serves the purpose of forecasting
grain supplies (yield prediction), collecting crop production statistics, facilitating crop
rotation records, mapping soil productivity, identification of factors influencing crop stress,
assessment of crop damage due to storms and drought, and monitoring farming activity. For
these applications, remote sensing has proven to be a valuable tool in the past decades.
Crop production in Mongolia was developed for last 50 years as an independent
productivity sector of economy. However, the high altitude, extreme fluctuation in
temperature, long winters, and low precipitation limited potential for agricultural
development. Because of the arid and harsh climate, it is unsuited to most cultivation and less
than 1% of the arable land in Mongolia is cultivated with crops, amounting to 617,100
hectares in 2010. After World War II, Mongolia intensified efforts to expand crop production
by establishing more state farms, by reclaiming virgin lands for crop raising, by mechanizing
farm operations and by developing irrigation systems for farmlands. When Mongolia began
to report statistics on arable land in 1960, there were 532,000 hectares of arable land, and
sown crops covered 265,000 hectares of the 477,000 hectares of plow land. In 1985, there
were about 1.2 million hectares of arable land, and sown crops covered 789,600 hectares of
the approximately 1 million hectares of plow land. Economic transition toward a free market
system since 1990 led to large decreases in both of the productivity and cropland area. Total
sown area was decreased year by year and in 2000 year, 209,200 thousand hectares of sown
area was reported. Statistics in 2010 reported that the area was increased to 315,300
thousand hectares.
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Basic understanding of cropland physiology in arid or semi-arid region is essential to
the success of remote sensing applications in agricultural systems. This study focused on the
phenological features of main cropland area in Mongolia using 250 m resolution multi-
temporal MODIS NDVI datasets. The target area comprises large tracts of grasslands and
shrublands characterized by a short growing season, with a rapid transition from growth to
the vegetation dormancy stage. Cultivated areas exhibit similar seasonal characteristics to
those of non-cultivated, naturally vegetated areas.

Study area
The study area covers four sums (administrative subdivision of Mongolia) of Bornuur,
Jargalant, Ugtaaltsaidam, Tseel of Tuv province (Figure 1). These sums belong to central
cropland zone and distributed at elevation of 800 to 1200 m in the valley of mountain.
Annual precipitation ranges 270-320 mm.
The growing season continues 79 112
days, from May to September/October.
Agriculture is both irrigated and rain-fed,
with the main crops of wheat, vegetables,
hay and potatoes. According to statistics
for Tuv province in 2011 year, total sown
area for cereals was 60080.3 hectares, for
potato 4813.1 hectares and 1334.1
hectares for vegetables, respectively.
Selected four sums compose large part of
the sown area within the province and
share of the area show in Table 1.
Figure 1. Spatial extent of the study area

Table 1. Total sown area and its share in the province
Cereals Potatoes Vegetables
Total sown area, hectares 44838.3 3266.6 593.9
Share in the province, % 75 68 45

Used data and methodology
This study used 16-day composite multi-temporal MODIS NDVI data (MOD13Q1)
for extracting and comparing phenological parameters linked to vegetative growth events
such as onset of greenness, senescence and length of the growing season for cropland. The
data were downloaded from the Land Processes Distributed Active Archive Center (LP
DAAC), U.S. Geological Surveys Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center.
The data consist of 10
o
10
o
tiles at 250 m resolution. Study area covered by h24-v4 tile and
it was converted from integerized sinusoidal grid projection (SIN) to geographic projection
using the nearest neighbour re-sampling method. Distribution of the cropland area was drawn
using cadastral data for 2012 obtained from Land Affairs, Construction, Geodesy and
Cartography of Mongolia.
Multi-temporal NDVI profiles for selected cropland were calculated and candidate
sites selected for further analysis based on their temporal profiles that having clear peak curve.
Most of the large cropland area was used to this analysis and they cover more than 4x4 pixels
at 250 m resolution. Approximately, 20 to 40 sites for each sum were selected for further
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comparison. Total selected sites for cropland was 123 in 2008 year (a) while 122 sites in
2012 year (b) and their spatial distribution show in Figure 2 for each sums.

Figure 2. Spatial distribution for selected cropland

Extraction of Phenological parameter
Time series of NDVI data were used for phenological feature analysis with TIMESAT
software (version 2.3) that were developed to generate a smoothened time series of NDVI
curves and to estimate the seasonal phenological parameters. We selected adaptive Savitzky-
Golay filter that produce a smoothened curve while capturing rapid phenological changes.
Window sizes of 34 were applied to fit curves for capture changes in the seasonal growth.
Estimated phenological parameters (Figure 3) were divided into date-related and NDVI-
related parameters.
The date-related parameters include beginning of season, end of season, length of season and
middle of season, whereas NDVI-related parameters compose base value, peak value,
amplitude, large integral and small integral. Beginning and end date of season are defined
from the fitted functions as the point in time for which the value exceeds 20% of the distance
between minimum and maximum at the two edges. Time lag between the beginning date of
season to the middle date of season was extracted for estimated speed of rate increase in the
NDVI value [(a) to (e)].

Figure 3. Estimated phenological parameters using TIMESAT software (a) beginning date of season, (b) ending
date of season, (c) left 80% level, (d) right 80% level, (e) peak, (f) amplitude, (g) length of season, (h) integral
over growing season giving area between fitted function and average of left and right minimum values, (i)
integral over growing season giving area between the fitted function and zero level.

This study extracted both of the date-related parameters that based on the timing of
the key phenological events for vegetative coverage and NDVI related parameters
representing the total seasonal vegetation production using smoothened 250 m MODIS NDVI
data. The result focuses on phenological characteristics within the single growing season.
Spatial distribution for selected ten parameters was extracted in 2008 and 2012 year and
detailed analysis was made on both of the pixel and sum levels. Each pixel within the sum
has different ranges between minimum to maximum value. To understand phenological
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features and differences between two years, averaged values were extracted in each sum level
(Table 2). Start date of season for 2008 year was May 27 in Bornuur, May 29 in Jargalant and
Tseel, May 31 in Ugtaaltsaidam sum, respectively. For middle date of season, it was July 28
in Bornuur, July 26 in Jargalant, and July 27 in Tseel, Ugtaaltsaidam. End date of season
occurred in October 15 for Bornuur, October 6 in Jargalant and October 10 in Tseel, October
11 in Ugtaaltsaidam, respectively. Length of the season in 2008 was ranged from 120 to 122
days in Jargalant, Tseel and Ugtaaltsaidam sums while longest days were in Bornuur with
133 days. Time lag until middle date of season was ranged from 50 to 58 days where Bornuur
has the longest day of 58. For NDVI related parameters, most of the parameter showed
similar trends in each sums, except Bornuur which has higher values. Peak NDVI value
fluctuated from 189 to 198 while amplitude was from 44 to 51 and base value was ranges
from 144 to 147, respectively. Large integral reached 1712 to 1881 and small integral was
from 240 to 305 in 2008.
For 2012, totally 122 sites were used for analysis of phenological features and average
distribution of the each sum show in Table 2 and spatial distribution of the four parameters
show in the next four figures as an example. Two kinds of date related parameters of the start
and middle date of season show in Figure 4 and Figure 5 while distribution of the peak NDVI
and amplitude value show in Figure 6 and Figure 7. Comparing with 2008, start date of
season were occurred early by one week and end date of season were completed after one
week in 2012 year. Relating with these changes, both of the length of season and time lag had
longer days than in 2008. Length of season was ranged from 127 to 144 days while time lag
continued 52 to 62 days. For NDVI related parameters, most of the indicators were higher
values than 2008 year, except base value.
Table 2. Average phenological features for each sum

Bornuur Jargalant Tseel Ugtaaltsaidam Bornuur Jargalant Tseel Ugtaaltsaidam
Sample sites 21 36 37 29 23 37 31 31
Start date 27-May 29-May 29-May 31-May 24-May 24-May 21-May 25-May
Middle date 28-Jul 26-Jul 27-Jul 27-Jul 30-Jul 24-Jul 26-Jul 24-Jul
End date 15-Oct 6-Oct 10-Oct 11-Oct 18-Oct 12-Oct 18-Oct 9-Oct
Length of season 133 120 122 121 144 127 140 128
Time lag 58 52 52 50 62 53 60 52
Peak NDVI 198 193 190 189 202 195 196 196
Amplitude 51 46 44 44 57 49 51 52
Base value 146 147 146 144 145 146 145 144
Large integral 1881 1712 1728 1717 1981 1833 1973 1790
Small integral 305 251 240 241 359 285 327 292
2008 year 2012 year
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Figure 4. Beginning date of season

Figure 5. Middle date of season

Figure 6. Peak NDVI value

Figure 7. Amplitude
Conclusions
This study has presented a phenological analysis for cropland areas in Bornuur, Jargalant,
Tseel and Ugtaaltsaidam sums of Tuv province. Ten phenological parameters, which were
derived from MODIS NDVI data using TIMESAT software, described seasonal
characteristics for the cropland. As a result, seasonal profiles for cropland were drawn in
2008 and 2012 years. Therefore, differences between these two years were identified in each
pixel level. Detailed phenological examination for crop types and spatial mapping for
cropland area will be conducted in future studies.
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References
1. Jnsson, P., Eklundh, L., (2004). TIMESAT a program for analyzing time-series of
satellite sensor data. Computers and Geosciences, 30, 833845.
2. Jnsson, P., Eklundh, L., (2006). TIMESAT a program for analyzing time-series of
satellite sensor data. Users guide for TIMESAT 2.3. Retrieved June 20, 2010, from
http://www.nateko.lu.se/personal/Lars.Eklundh/TIMESAT/timesat2_3_users_manual.pdf
3. , . (1999). . .
4. , . (1980). , .
5. Tsevengee Enkhzaya., Ryutaro Tateishi., (2011). Use of phenological features to identify
cultivated areas in Asia. International Journal of Environmental Studies, 68(1), 924.

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GRASSLAND VEGETATION DYNAMIC AND THE RELATIVE
ROLES OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND HUMAN ACTIVITIES IN
GRASSLAND DEGRADATION IN SHIYANGHE RIVER BASIN ,
NORTHWEST CHINA FROM 1982 TO 2010

Zhou Wei, Li Jianlong and Gang Chengcheng
Ph.D., School of Life Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, P.R. China
Tel: +86-15062209765, Email: wkmzhou@gmail.com
Professor, School of Life Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, P.R. China
Tel: +86-13585140878, Email: jlli2008@nju.edu.cn.

KEY WORDS: Grassland degradation, Net primary productivity, climate change, human intervention,
Shiyanghe River
Abstract
An accurate quantitative assessment of grassland degradation dynamic and relative roles of climate
change and human activities to degradation has great theoretical significance to deeply understanding
the driving mechanisms and controlling grassland degradation. NPP was selected as an indicator to
analyze the grassland dynamic and quantitatively assess the relative roles from 1982 to 2010 in
Shiyanghe River Basin. The potential NPP and the difference between potential NPP and actual NPP
were used to assess the impacts of climate and human factors on grassland degradation, respectively.
Results showed that 40.2% of grassland area occurred degradation, while 59.8 % showed restoration
trend. Within which, 39% of grassland degradation was caused by human activities versus only 0.4%
resulted from climate changes, the rest of grassland degradation (60.6%) was derived from the
combination contribution of climate and human factors. On the contrary, 15.6% of the grassland
restoration was caused by human activities versus 8.8% induced by climate change, and 75.6% of
grassland restoration was caused by the two factors. Therefore, human activities dominated grassland
degradation; meanwhile, the contribution of human activities to grassland restoration also is larger than
climate change. At the same time, the grassland cover in Shiyanghe River Basin increased from 0.21 in
1980s to 0.24 in 2010s. Therefore, effectiveness of ecological restoration programs should be enhanced
to improve grassland conditions under the global warming.

Introduction
Ggrassland is one of the worlds largest vegetation types, accounting for nearly 20% of
the worlds land surface (Scurlock & Hall, 1998). It has been profoundly influenced by
human activities for food production and animal husbandry development, as well as, to a
lesser extent, by climate change (Conant et al. 2001). China has 3.93 million km
2
of grassland,
accounting for approximately 40% of Chinas total land area and 6% to 8% of the worlds
total grassland (Ni, 2002). Recent studies have shown that nearly 90% of the grasslands in
north China are degraded to some extent (Nan, 2005), with an annual degradation rate of
approximately 6,700 km
2
(Yang, 2002).
This has led to serious environment and social problem. To alleviate the multi-facetted
environmental degradation, the Chinese government recently launched several ecological
restoration programs to reduce grazing pressure, which has achieved some achievement and
deeply affected the structure and function of grassland ecosystem. Developing a quantitative
method is optimal in assessing the relative role of climate change and human activities in
grassland degradation (Veron et al., 2006), and is crucial to monitoring grassland degradation.
Some studies are focused on the analysis of human-induced vegetation dynamics based on
rainfall use efficiency method (RUE) (Prince et al., 2004) or through a localized statistical
model of vegetationclimate relationship. Still others have used the vegetation dynamics to
discriminate human-induced vegetation change from climate change because vegetation
dynamics are a most intuitive manifestation of land degradation process (Wessels et al., 2007;
Xu et al., 2010). This is accomplished by comparing the potential vegetation condition with
actual conditions. Based on this concept, vegetation dynamics, as measured by NPP, have
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been used to discriminate the impacts of climate change from the effects of human activities
on the ecosystems (Wessels et al., 2007).
The Shiyanghe River Basin is ecological vulnerable region. In spite of the importance of
this region; there are a few studies that have assessed the driving factors of grassland
dynamics based on NPP. Therefore, in the present study NPP was used to quantitatively
assess the grassland dynamics as influenced by degradation and modified by the government
restoration program. Furthermore, potential NPP and HNPP (the difference between potential
NPP and actual NPP) were used to assess the individual impacts of climate change and
human activities on grassland degradation. Thus, this study will provide recommendations on
grassland management and sustainable development.

Materials and methods
Study area: The Shiyanghe River Basin is located in northwest China at the east of the Hexi
corridor (3132N to 4910N and 7315E to 11150E). This basin occupies an area of about
4.1610
4
km
2
. The Badain Jaran and Tengger deserts surround the region along its western,
northern, and eastern margins (Figure 1). The southwest section of the basin belongs to the
Qilian Mountains region, with an elevation decrease from 5000 m to 2000 m, corresponding
to the decrease of annual precipitation from 600 mm to 300 mm. The central section covers
areas with altitudes ranging from 1400 m to 2000 m and precipitation ranging between 150
and 300 mm. The northeast section covers areas with
an elevation ranging from 1000 m to 1400 m and
precipitation usually less than 120 mm. The
vegetation distribution presents obvious vertical
zonality, including alpine meadows, forest thickets,
desert vegetation, and oases. These ecological
environments of this basin are very vulnerable
because of their low precipitation, high evaporation,
and potentially severe sand transport (Ma et al.,
2005). At present, Shiyanghe River Basin, is
currently considered to be a typical research region
in land degradation.

Data source and processing
We used NDVI data and geo-spatial meteorological data as input data for the Carnegie
AmesStanford Approach (CASA) model to calculate the actual NPP. The study period was
from 1982 to 2010. Two types of NDVI dataset were used in this study: moderate-resolution
imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS)-NDVI data with 1 km spatial resolution, from 2001 to
2010; and advanced very high-resolution radiometer global inventory modeling and mapping
studies (GIMMS)-NDVI data with 8 km resolution, covering the periods from 1982 to 2006.
A regression model was established based on the two types of NDVI dataset to produce a
long period of NDVI datasets from 1982 to 2010. The two NDVI products were re-projected
to Albers equal area projection based on the WGS-84 datum using ArcGIS V9.3 software
(ESRI, California, USA).
Meteorological data were obtained from the China Meteorological Science Data-Sharing
Service System. Ordinary kriging interpolation was performed to interpolate the
meteorological data intended for producing raster images. These monthly meteorological data
were used to drive the CASA model. The meteorological data used to drive the Thornthwaite
memorial model include annual total precipitation and average temperature.
Calculation of actual NPP
Fig.1 Location of the study area and
the distribution of grassland types in China.

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In this study, we selected the actual NPP (g C/m
2
a) as an indicator to represent
grassland degradation dynamics. The actual NPP was calculated using the CASA model,
which is a light use efficiency (c) model based on the resource-balance theory (Potter et al.,
1993; Field et al., 1995). In the CASA model, NPP is the product of absorbed
photosynthetically active radiation (APAR) and c. The basic principle of the model can be
described as the following formula:
NPP(x, t)=APAR(x, t)c (x, t) (1)
Where x is location (the pixel number), and t is time; APAR(x, t) represents the canopy-absorbed incident
solar radiation integrated over a given time period (MJ/m
2
); and c(x, t) represents the actual light use
efficiency (g C/MJ). A more detailed description of this model can be found in previous research (Yu et al.,
2011).

Estimation of potential NPP
Potential NPP predicts an ideal condition in the absence of human activities and is
only determined by climate condition. In the present study, Thornthwaite Memorial
model was used to estimate potential NPP. The model was expressed as follows:

NPP=3000[1e
0.0009695(v-20)
] (2)
Where NPP is the annual total potential NPP (g C/m
2
a), and v is the average annual actual evapotranspiration
(mm). The calculated equations are as follows:

Design of the quantitative assessment method
The vegetation dynamic is a most intuitive manifestation of land degradation progress
and reflects the ecological process involved in degradation. Additionally, NPP is a
fundamental ecological variable which can reflect the grassland degradation and is sensitive
to climate and human factors. Therefore, if the quantitative relation between the change of
NPP induced by climate change and human activities are identified, it is possible to
quantitatively assess the relative roles of climate and human factors in grassland degradation.
In this study, we used the ordinary least-squares method to estimate the change trend of
potential NPP, actual NPP and HNPP (Human appropriation, i.e. difference between the
potential NPP and actual NPP). The equation is as follows:
2
1
2
1 1 1
i
) NPP )( ( NPP

=
= = =

=
n
i
n
i
n
i
n
i
i
n
i
i
i n
i i n
Slope

(3)

where i is 1 for year 1982, 2 for year 1983, and so on; n is 29 for years from 1982 to 2010; and NPP
i
is the value
of annual NPP in time of i year.
The effect of climate change on NPP can be represented using the slope of potential
NPP (S
P
). A positive trend of potential NPP indicates that climate change benefits the growth
of vegetation and grassland restoration, while, the negative of S
P
indicates that climate change
is harmful to vegetation growth. The effect of human activities is based on the slope of HNPP
(S
H
). If S
H
is a negative, human activity during this period benefit the growth of vegetation.
Inversely, positive S
H
showed that human-dominated land degradation occurs. The slope
value of actual NPP (S
A
) represents the grassland dynamic; in this paper, positive S
A
represents grassland restoration occurs, while negative S
A
indicates degradation occurs. Six
possible scenarios can be defined by the slope of actual NPP, potential NPP and HNPP
(Table 1).

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Table 1 Six scenarios for assessing the relative roles of climate change
and human activities in grassland degradation
Process Scenario S
P
S
H
Definition
Grassland
restoration
(S
A
>0)
Scenario 1 <0 <0 Human-induced grassland restoration
Scenario 2 >0 >0 Climate-induced grassland restoration
Scenario 3 >0 <0
Grassland restoration resulted from the two
factors
Grassland
degradation
(S
A
<0)

Scenario 1 >0 >0 Human-induced grassland degradation
Scenario 2 <0 <0 Climate-induced grassland degradation
Scenario 3 <0 >0
Grassland degradation resulted from the two
factors

Results
Grassland degradation dynamic analysis from 1982 to 2010
Figure 2A shows the results of grassland degradation dynamics based on NPP. Change trends
of grassland NPP change ranged from -11.05 g C/m
2
a

to 8.79 g C/m
2
a from 1982 to 2010.
The total degraded grasslands identified reached 10499 km
2
, equivalent to 59.8% of the total
grassland area. Comparatively, the restored grasslands accounted for 40.2% of the total
grassland area (Fig. 2A). Grassland coverage
change trend is similar to the change trend of
NPP. Furthermore, the regions of grassland
NPP and coverage presented decrease trend
mainly distributed in the southwest of the
basin near the Qilian Mountains. While the
increase trend of NPP and coverage mainly
distributed in central regions.
Relative roles of climate change and
human activities in grassland degradation
or restoration
The relative roles of climate change and human activities in grassland degradation or
restoration were assessed based on the methods listed in Table 1. The grassland restoration
mainly occurred in the central region of the basin (Fig.3A), while grassland restoration was
found in the southwest of the basin near Qilian Mountains (Fig.3B). In addition, human-
induced grassland degradation mainly occurred in central parts of the basin; while human-
induced grassland reversion was only occurred in the south of the basin. Climate-induced
grassland degradation only scattered in the
southwest of the basin; but climate-induced
grassland restoration scattered in the north of the
basin. However, the combination of climate and
human factors to grassland degradation was
widespread in the whole basin, especially in the
southwest and central region of the basin (Fig.3).
Statistics analysis of the relative roles of
human and climate factors in desertification
showed that, human activities dominated 15.6%
of grassland restoration from 1982 to 2010,
while climate dominated 8.8% of grassland
restoration, and the rest of 75.6% was attributed
Fig.2 Change trend of grassland NPP (A)
and coverage (B) from 1982 to 2010.
Fig.3 Spatial distribution of the human and
climate factors responsible for (A) grassland
restoration and (B) degradation.
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28

to the combination of the two factors. However, 39% of grassland degradation was caused by
human activities dominated, versus only 0.4% was induced by climate change, and the rest of
60.6% was caused by the combination of the two factors.

Discussion
Discussion of the methodology
The traditional methodology mainly focused on statistical methods, such as regression
analysis and principal component analysis (Li et al., 2007); Recently, several studies have
been conducted to distinguish human-induced from climate-induced land degradation by
comparing the actual with the potential vegetation conditions (Herrmann et al., 2005; Wessels
et al., 2007). According to the above methods, we selected NPP as an indicator to assess the
relative roles of climate change and human activities in grassland degradation. Actual NPP
was used to reflect the grassland degradation dynamics, the potential NPP and HNPP to
assess the individual effects of climate change and human activities in grassland degradation,
respectively.

Impact of climate change and human activities on desertification process
Recent research has found that both the temperature and precipitation in the Shiyanghe
River Basin have increased during the past 50 years (Du et al., 2010). Similarly, the present
findings showed that the annual precipitation and temperature in the western part of the basin
near Qilian Mountains exhibited an increasing trend from 1982 to 2010 (Fig.4). NPP also
showed an increasing trend (Fig. 2A) and the
increase in precipitation benefited vegetation
growth, especially in dry land (Herrmann et al.,
2005). For the most part, however, the annual
precipitation showed a declining trend
(Fig.3B), and annual mean temperature
increasing (Fig.4A). Our findings also confirm
that NPP decreased in the aforementioned
regions (Fig.2A) because the rise in
temperature increased evaporation, which is
harmful to vegetation growth in dry land.
On the one hand, human interference, such
as overgrazing, conversion of grassland
cropland, will lead to land degradation. Our
findings found that 39% of grassland degradation was induced by human activities. On the
contrary, human activities, such as longtime enclosure and returning grazing land to grassland,
promote grassland reversion. And our findings also showed that 15.6% grassland restoration
was caused by human activities. The desertification has dropped under the implementation of
ecological restoration program in the basin (Ma and Fan, 2005).

Conclusions
The Shiyanghe River Basin has experienced significant environmental change in response
to climate change and human activities from 1982 to 2010. Actual NPP was selected as an
indicator to reflect grassland degradation dynamics; potential NPP and HNPP were selected
to quantitatively assess the impact of climate change and human activities on grassland
degradation, respectively. Results showed that 40.2% of grassland area occurred degradation,
while 59.8 % showed restoration trend. Within which, 39% of grassland degradation was
caused by human activities versus only 0.4% resulted from climate change, 60.6% was
induced by the two factors. On the contrary, 15.6% of grassland restoration was caused by
Fig.4 The change slope of (A) annual mean
temperature and (B) annual precipitation during
1982-2010.
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29

human activities versus only 8.8% caused by climate change, and 75.6% of grassland
restoration was caused by the two factors. In a word, human activities dominated grassland
degradation and restoration. Therefore, improved management should be enhanced to protect
grassland resource. And the methods used in this study are applicable.

References
Conant, R. T., Paustian, K., & Elliott, E. T. (2001). Grassland management and conversion
into grassland: effects on soil carbon. Ecological Applications, 11(2), 343-355.
Du, J., Yan, P., & Dong, Y. (2010). Precipitation characteristics and its impact on vegetation
restoration in Minqin County, Gansu Province, northwest China. International Journal of
Climatology, 31(8), 1153-1165.
Evans, J., & Geerken R. (2004). Discrimination between climate and human-induced dryland
degradation. Journal of Arid Environments, 57(4): 535-554.
Field, C. B., Randerson, J. T., & Malmstrm, C. M. (1995). Global net primary production:
combining ecology and remote sensing. Remote Sensing of Environment, 51(1), 74-88.
Herrmann, S. M., Anyamba, A., & Tucker, C. J. (2005). Recent trends in vegetation
dynamics in the African Sahel and their relationship to climate. Global Environmental
Change, 15(4), 394-404.
Ma, J. Z., Wang, X. S., & Edmunds, W. M. (2005). The characteristics of ground-water
resources and their changes under the impacts of human activity in the arid Northwest
Chinaa case study of the Shiyang River Basin. Journal of Arid Environments, 61(2),
277-295.
Ma, Y. H., & Fan, S. Y. (2005). Eco-economic effect of actualizing de-farming and
reafforestation policy in desertification areas: Taking Minqin county as a case. Journal of
Natural Resources, 20(4), 590-596.
Nan, Z. (2005). The grassland farming system and sustainable agricultural development in
China. Grassland Science, 51(1), 15-19.
Ni, J. (2002). Carbon storage in grasslands of China. Journal of Arid Environments, 50(2),
205-218.
Potter, C. S., Randerson, J. T., Field, C. B., Matson, P. A., Vitousek, P. M., & Mooney, H. A.,
et al. (1993). Terrestrial ecosystem production: a process model based on global satellite
and surface data. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 7(4), 811-841.
Prince, S. D., Colstoun, D., Brown, E., & Kravitz, L. L. (2004). Evidence from rainuse
efficiencies does not indicate extensive Sahelian desertification. Global Change Biology,
4(4), 359-374.
Scurlock, J., & Hall, D. O. (1998). The global carbon sink: a grassland perspective. Change
Biology, 4(2), 229-233.
Veron, S. R., Paruelo, J. M., & Oesterheld, M. (2006). Assessing desertification. Journal of
Arid Environments, 66(4), 751-763.
Wessels, K. J., Prince, S. D., Malherbe, J., Small, J., Frost, P. E., & VanZyl, D. (2007). Can
human-induced land degradation be distinguished from the effects of rainfall variability? A
case study in South Africa. Journal of Arid Environments, 68(2), 271-297.
Xu, D. Y., Kang, X. W., Zhuang, D. F., & Pan, J. J. (2010). Multi-scale quantitative
assessment of the relative roles of climate change and human activities in desertificationA
case study of the Ordos Plateau, China. Journal of arid environments, 74(4), 498-507.
Yang, R.Y. (2002). Studies on current situation of grassland degradation and sustainable
development in western china, Pratacultural Science 19: 23-27.
Yu, D. Y., Shi, P. J., Han, G. Y., Zhu, W. Q., Du, S. Q., & Xun, B. (2011). Forest ecosystem
restoration due to a national conservation plan in China. Ecological Engineering, 37(9),
1387-1397.
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SEASONAL NDVI VARIATION IN GRASSLANDS WITH AND
WITHOUT CARAGANA MI CROPHYLLA IN MONGOLIA

N. Amartuvshin
1
and K. Sinkyu
2

1
Researcher, Ph.D., Institute of Botany, Mongolian Academy of Sciences, Jukov Avenue-77, Ulaanbaatar-
210351, Mongolia, Phone: +976-11-457006, Fax: +976-11-451837, e-mail: amraa_30@yahoo.com
2
Professor, Ph.D., Department of Environment, Kangwon National University, 192-1, Hyoja-Dong,
Gwangwon-do, Chuncheon 200-701, Republic of Korea, Phone: +82-33-250-8578
Fax: +82-33-251-3991, e-mail: kangsk@kangwon.ac.kr

KEYWORDS: Caragana microphylla, seasonal NDVI variation

Abstract
In this study, we compared seasonal NDVI variations between plots with and without C. microphylla.
Seven paired-plots with and without C. microphylla were selected from mountain-foot areas in Tuv aimag
(46
o
56 47
o
58N; 105
o
40 106
o
09E). The Caragana and non-Caragana sites within each paired-plot
are typically apart from less than 10 km with each other. We collected multiple Landsat ETM+ images from
May to September in 2002, 2003, and 2004. Those three years showed distinctly different climatic
conditions from hot-and-dry (year 2002), cool-and-wet (year 2003), and moderate temperature and
precipitation (year 2004). For all images, atmospheric normalization was applied using pseudo-invariant
features (PIF) method. An image of June 3
rd
, 2004 was selected as the reference image. Band-specific linear
relationships of PIF TOA reflectances between reference and subject images were developed for red and
infrared bands, respectively, and then, applied to normalize atmospheric effects on the two spectral bands of
each subject image. Using the normalized images, NDVI was calculated and extracted 12-by-12 pixels of
each study site to produce plot-averaged NDVI. The NDVI time-series showed similar seasonal patterns
between Caragana and non-Caragana sites with NDVI increase from May and reaching at maxima in mid-
July, and then monotonic decrease during August and September. The maximum NDVI, however, differed
considerably depending on presence of Caragana and density of Caragana. Generally, Caragana sites
showed higher NDVI than non-Caragana (i.e. grass-dominated) sites but statistically insignificant. In this
presentation, we discuss inter-annual NDVI variations of Caragana and non-Caragana sites with distinctly
different climatic conditions. This study will give useful information on responses of vegetation to different
climatic regimes for two contrasting vegetation structures.

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A CURRENT AND PREDICTION CONDITION ON PASTURE OF THE
GOBI REGION, MONGOLIA
D.Ariungerel, PhD. D.Enkhzaya, andD.Enkhbat
NAMEM, 4
th
khoroo, Chingeltei distrect, Ulaanbaatar -15160, Mongolia,
E-mail: arvingerel@yahoo.com, enkhbatw@yahoo.com, enkhzaya_1@yahoo.com,

KEY WORDS: pasture map, forage, Gobi region, pasture quality,
Abstract: This study aims to develop risk management technologies to provide drought and winter
disaster early warning to improve rural business in the livestock sector of the Gobi region and of whole
territory of Mongolia. The study is conducted under Gobi Forage"project, funded from USAID,
USDA and World Bank Household Livelihoodssupport program and managed by Texas Agricultural
Mechanics University, has beingimplemented by Mercy Corps in Mongolia since 2004. From 2009,
Gobi Forage project areas are extended under LEWS (Livestock Early Warning System) project, the
continuation of Goby Forage project for whole territory of Mongolia.

Introduction
In the period from 1999 to 2002, Mongolia experienced a series of droughts andsevere
winters that lowered livestock numbers by approximately 30% countrywide. Inthe Gobi
region, livestock mortality reached 50% with many households losing entireherds (Siurua &
Swift 2002). In March 2004, a program was initiated by the USAID through the Global
LivestockCollaborative Research and Support Program (GLCRSP) to provide early warning
ofdrought and winter disasters. The program has to develop a communication infrastructure
to provides herders with foragecondition information to assist in making timely and specific
management decision.
Gobi forage project established 302 pasture monitoring sites in eight aimags of Gobi Region
includesGobi-Altai, Gobi-Sumber, Bayanhongor, Ovorhangai, Omnogobi, Dundgobi,
Dornogobi andTuv aimags.
LEWS project running by Mercy Corps, in partnership with Texas AgriLife Research,
reached all territory of Mongolia and established 501 monitoring points since 2009 and now
covered all aimags in Mongolia and the system will effectively deliver early warning to
respective aimags, soums and herders in those areas. The national, aimag and soum capacity
to respond to warnings and mitigate risk from very low forage and extreme drought
conditions is being developed.

Methodology
In 2004-2008, 302 monitoring sites were selected in eight aimags (Gobi-Altai,
Bayankhongor, Dundgobi, Dornogobi, Umnogobi, Ovorkhangai) in the Gobi
Region and Tuvaimag.
In 2009-2012, 501 monitoring sites were selected in thirteen aimags (Arkhangai,
Bulgan, Selenge, Dornod, Sukhbaatar,Khentii, Khovd, Bayan-ulgii, Uvs, Zavkhan,
Orkhan, Darkhan and Khuvsgol) and now has 803 monitoring points across
Mongolia (Figure1).
During the first visit to each site, vegetation, soil, and grazing data (cattle, sheep,
goats, camels andhorses) were collected to parameterize the PHYGROW forage
production model and to calibrate the model.
Sites were randomly selected from an 8 x 8 km grid. The grid size matched the
resolution of the CMORPH precipitation dataused in the forage modeling.
Vegetation measurement included basal cover of grasses, relative frequency of
forbs,
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and relative shrub cover. Herbaceous standing crop was estimated by clipping
biomasswithin ten 0.25 or 0.50 m2 frames at each site.
The PHYGROW model can simulate plant communities grazed by multiple kinds
of livestock. The model was driven by near real-time climate data acquired from
the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administrations (NOAA) CMORPH
system.
For validated sites, the forage model outputs were coupled with NDVI data using
the geostatistical method of cokriging to create interpolated maps of forage
biomass. Cross validation was used to assess the performance of cokriging.
Figure 1. 803 pasture monitoring points in 21 aimags.

Result
PHYGROW model is a technology to set up database and estimate the current and
prediction condition of pasture on huge territory.
The maps on current forage available (kg/ha) (Figure2), current forage deviation
(Figure4) from long term average , 60 day forage forecasting(Figure 3)and 60 day
forage deviation (Figure5) from long term average are very useful tools for local
administration and herders to make decision on their movement and update their
pasture plan and reduce the risk for livestock.
Dissemination of LEWS information on web page
http://glews.brc.tamus.edu/mongolia/ and broadcasts by Mongolian national radio
and TV and prints on the newspaper Onoodor bimonthly.
The LEWS informs government and rural residents or livestock herders of
impending drought and/or severe winter and thereby improve response capacity to
mitigate the impacts. Approaches of the planning are risk forecasting, contingency
planning, and grazing and pasture management.

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Figure 2. The current forage Figure3. 60 days forecast forage

Figure4. The current forage deviation Figure5. 60 days forecast forage deviation
Discussion
LEWS as science-based grazing management tool and disaster preparedness decision support
system that can be used to improve the use of Mongolian pastureland. It also can be used as a
tool to monitor climate change impact on pastureland; climate change vulnerability and
adaptation of pasturelands.
Conclusion and recommendations
LEWS provides an early warning for below normal forage conditions or catastrophic winter
conditions to reduce risk of livestock mortality and protect the ecological stability of
rangeland resources, and to improve animal nutrition. Forage monitoring technology helps
herders and local and national government officials organize themselves to better cope with
risk and improve rangeland management.
Pasture condition information can easily be accessed through internet, newspaper, radio and
TV sometimes even on mobile phones.
The only challenge remaining is now how these data can be appreciated, understood and used
by all level decision makers and ordinary herders.

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References:
1. Angerer J.P., Bolor-Erdene L., Tsogoo D., Urgamal M., Granville-Ross S. 2006.
Forage monitoring technology to improve risk management decision making by
herders in the Gobi region of Mongolia //The 2nd International conference on Land
cover /Land use study using Remote Sensing /GIS and the GOFC-GOLD regional
capacity building meeting in Mongolia. 08-09th June, 2006, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia.
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2. Angerer J.P., Sean Granville-Ross, Stewart T., Tsolmon N., Urgamal.M. //GOBI
FORAGE: Forage Monitoring Technology to Improve Risk Management by Herders
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07-03.
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Mongolia. //International Grassland Congress, Khukhkhot, CHINA, June, 29 - July,
05, 2008. P.648
6. Jay Angerer, Bolor-Erdene L., Urgamal M. and Tsogoo D. Verification of a Forage
Simulation Model used for a Livestock Early Warning System in the Gobi region of
Mongolia //Abstract: Global Livestock CRSP End of Program Conference, 16-19,
June 2009, Lake Naivasha, Kenya, p.65
7. Urgamal M., Bolor-Erdene L., Narangerel D. and Jay Angerer. Implementation of a
Livestock Early Warning System in Mongolia //Abstract: Global Livestock CRSP
End of Program Conference, 16-19, June 2009, Lake Naivasha, Kenya, p.76
8. Mongolian LEWS project (Livestock early warning system), 2004-2010, Ulaanbaatar,
Mongolia
9. Livestock early warning system map explanation, 2007, Ulaanbaatar

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Climate change adaptation in North east Asia
ENVIRONMENTAL DAMAGE AND CROSS-BORDER MIGRATION
IN THE MEKONG REGION

Lynn THIESMEYER

Professor, Faculty of Environmental Information, Keio University
Endo 5322, Fujisawa-shi, Kanagawa-ken, JAPAN 252-0882
Tel 0466-49-3540 Fax 0466-49-3540 Email: thiesmey@sfc.keio.ac.jp

KEY WORDS: Southeast Asia, China, environmental damage, migration, vulnerability

Abstract
This paper shows the effects on local populations of the increasing environmental degradation that has
stemmed from policies for rapid economic growth in developing countries of Asia. Surveyed areas
were within the Golden Quadrangle: southern China, Upper Myanmar, Northern Laos, and Northern
Thailand, part of the Greater Mekong Subregion. Rural dwellers account for approximately 3 billion
persons out of this regions total population and form a crucial part of its work force and its GDP.
These regions have experienced a rapid increase in record high temperatures for sustained periods of
time combined with more frequent climate disasters, including cyclones and droughts. The past 3 years
have seen extensive and long-lasting damage over widening areas of each country. The result is
livelihood deprivation, pushing the most vulnerable to migrate without support networks, over long
distances, and for longer periods.
The rural farmers surveyed in this study were no longer able to cultivate, procure or sell produce due to
climate and land degradation. They undertook longer-distance, longer-term migration, and without the
usual networks of brokers, employers, or friends waiting at the destination. Without such social capital
for potential employment, and without the Juresources to make resilience possible, they sometimes do
not know where they are going, where they have arrived, or whether they will be able to return home.
An urgent policy issue is whether to treat such growing populations as migrants or as environmentally
displaced persons. Further, it is difficult to categorize their flight or displacement as adaptation given
their probable lack of choice or agency. It may become a negative adaptation, resulting in greater
hardship for themselves and their environments at the place of origin and at the destination. Initiatives
to assist in positive adaptations for such environmental migrants will be presented in the Conclusion.

ADAPTIVE STRATEGIES OF HUMAN SETTLEMENTS IN MONGOLIAN CITIES
Will Galloway, PhD
Project Assistant Professor, Keio University

Abstract
The environmental challenges that Mongolia is experiencing in the wake of rapid urbanization and
industrialization are formed by the unique factors of the nations geography, politics and history. That
notwithstanding, there are several similarities between Ulaanbaatar and the early periods of
urbanization of large cities such as London, Paris, or New York. The manner in which those cities
responded to periods of extreme crisis offers some hints for how Mongolian cities might move forward
today. This paper describes the alternative roads taken by other cities and other nations, and offers
some suggestions for cities in Mongolia today with a focus on sustainable alternatives.

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FARMERS ADAPTIVE BEHAVIOR IN INNER MONGOLIA, CHINA

Takafumi Miyasaka
Project Assistant Professor, Graduate School of Media and Governance, Keio University, 5322 Endo,
Fujisawa-shi, Kanagawa 252-0882, Japan
Tel: +81-466-47-0284, E-mail: miyasaka@sfc.keio.ac.jp

KEYWORDS: Adaptation, Desertification, Horqin Sandy Land, Human-environment system, Multi-agent
system, Sloping Land Conversion Program

Abstract
Adaptation policies are increasingly implemented all over the world, but evaluation of their effects
cannot be straightforward because of complex human-environment systems within this context. A
major challenge is to understand multiple interaction mechanisms including adaptation, which form the
basis for system resilience. China implements a type of adaptation policy, called Sloping Land
Conversion Program (SLCP). One of the aims of SLCP is to facilitate shifts in economic structure. In
particular, the shift from an agricultural economy to a non-agricultural economy is used in order to
reduce economic instability resulting from overburdening of vulnerable natural resources. That practice
has the benefit of reducing future environmental degradation. The effectiveness of SLCP with regards
to economic structural change is unclear, however, and local farmers adaptive behavior under SLCP
needs to be understood. This paper demonstrates how local farmers can or cannot adapt to
environments changed by SLCP using the case study of a scenario-based simulation with an
empirically constructed agent-based model in Inner Mongolia, China.

DEVELOPMENT OF EARLY ADAPTATION SYSTEMS FOR LOCAL
COMMUNITIES

Akihiro Oba
1

1
Project Assistant Associate, Keio University
Z203, Endo 5322, Fujisawa, Kanagawa, JAPAN 252-0882
Tel 0466-49-2227 Fax 0466-49-2228 Email: perry@sfc.keio.ac.jp

Keywords: WebGIS, Mongolia, Zud, Climate Change, Adaptation

Abstract
Mongolia experiences extreme livestock losses in winter seasons of 1999-2002 and 2009-2010 by Zud
that is Mongolian term for an extremely snowy winter in which livestock animals are unable to find
forage through the snow cover, and large numbers of animals die due to starvation and the cold.
Livestock animals are managed in the county scale that names Sum in Mongolia. Therefore, before
Zud, sum mayors need to make a policy for livestock management to adapt in Zud. However, herders
are almost independent to have own decision-making process in practice due to vast district.
To communicate each other for adaptation to Zud, it is important to develop a system that sends
recommended adaptation plans with information that relating with Zud and lets herders and mayors
choose these plans. Before starting to develop system, we surveyed current needs of information for
system and current communication in local communities.: First, mayors and herders exchange their
information directly in sum center in market season, but in some sums, they use cell phone or fixed
phone that sets in some settlements. Second, almost all the herders have a cell phones, and also almost
all the mayors get Internet in the near future. Therefore, it needs to develop PC system for mayors and
mobile phone system for local herders. Third, herders and mayors mainly need estimation of zud
impact to livestock, weather information, market information, and migrate-able area for preventing
from Zud. However, ratio of these kinds of information was different in each Sum. Thus, this
presentation introduces early warning system by based on PC and mobile phone for early adaptation to
Zud in scale of local community.
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37

DYNAMIC AREA CHANGES OF GRASSLAND ECOSYSTEMS IN
NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE, AUSTRALIA & CHINA IN RESPONSE
TO GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE FROM 1911 TO 2000

Gang Chengcheng, LI Jianlong and Zhou Wei
Tel: +86-15850588184, Email: gangcheng024@gmail.com

KEY WORDS: Grassland ecosystems, Comprehensive Sequential Classification System (CSCS), Potential
Natural Vegetation (PNV), Spatiotemporal distribution

Abstract
Bioclimatology based vegetation classification models play an important role in studying the response
of terrestrial ecosystems to global climate change. In this paper, based on the Comprehensive
Sequential Classification System (CSCS) model and the CRU_TS 2.1 datasets, three periods (1911 to
1940, 1941 to 1970 and 1971 to 2000) of Potential Natural Vegetation (PNV) maps were created based
on the global climatology data, the distribution pattern and changes of grassland ecosystems in North
America, Europe, Australia and China was analyzed and compared. Results indicate that the largest
total area of grassland ecosystems was estimated in North America and a decrease trend was observed
(8.09%), and tundra and alpine steppe, semi-desert, steppe and temperate humid grassland decreased by
10.54%, 14.78% 14.13% and 4.54%, respectively, while the increase trend was only found on savanna
(3.5%). The overall decreasing trend was also found in China, which decreased from 454.5 10
4
km
2
to
450.110
4
km
2
(0.77%), while tundra and alpine steppe and steppe showed a decreasing trend with
1.05% and 14.29%, respectively, and semi-desert and temperate humid grassland presented an increase
trend with 2.81% and 4.37%, respectively. In Europe, the overall increasing trend was observed on
grassland ecosystems, which increased from 318.5 10
4
km
2
to 338.5 10
4
km
2
(6.20%), the tundra and
alpine steppe and steppe showed an decrease trend with 3.90% and 11.21%, respectively, while the
area of semi-desert, savanna and temperate humid grassland increased by 23.3%, 35.29% and 14.94%,
respectively. A significant increase trend was found in grassland ecosystems in Australia, and savanna
was the main grassland type, which showed an expanding trend by 37.13%. The reasons for the shifts
of natural systems are complicated, but rising temperate and altered precipitation really played a key
role in the variations and shifts of grassland ecosystems in each region.

Introduction
Grassland is one of the worlds largest vegetation types, which accounts for nearly 20%
of the worlds land surface and considered to play a key role in greenhouse gas mitigation,
particularly in terms of global carbon storage and further carbon sequestration. The grassland
ecosystems also made a great contribution to food security through providing part of the feed
requirements of ruminants used for meat and milk production (J and Hall, 1998; O'Mara,
2012). Although with different grassland types, North America, Australia, Europe and China
are all rich of grassland sources, which play a key role in controlling the most important
biogeochemical cycles on grassland ecosystems, the water, carbon, and nitrogen cycles. Even
though many studies about grassland carbon cycle and degradation were reported, there were
hardly any research was conducted to analyze and compare the changing trend of grassland
ecosystems in the past centuries in North America, Australia, Europe and china.
Since the Potential Natural Vegetation (PNV) concept was put forward by Reinhold
Tuxen in 1956, at global and regional scales, a great deal of research has been conducted
utilizing static and equilibrium based biogeography models (FI, et al., 1995; LR, 1947; LR, et
al., 1971; WJ, et al., 1993). Those models and their modeling results have played important
role in promoting the understanding of a variety of terrestrial ecosystems and their dynamic
succession mechanisms, especially in the relationship between vegetation and climate.
Obviously, the dynamic global vegetation models and process-based models have greatly
improved our ability to understand the response of terrestrial vegetation to past and future
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environmental variation at global-to-regional scales. But, these models require many
parameters and a great deal of data to simulate the entire process of terrestrial ecosystem
dynamics. This is a shortcoming for the utilization due to limitation of available historical
data collected/observed in many developing and undeveloped regions or countries(Lobo and
Rebollar, 2010; Cosgrove, et al., 2002), However, both biogeographic models (i.e.,Holdridge
Life Zone) and equilibrium vegetation models (i.e., BIOME4) emphasize the simulation
study of forests, without adequate attention to the classification of grassland. But, a
bioclimatology-based natural vegetation classification approach, named as Comprehensive
Sequential Classification System (CSCS) approach (Ren, 1959; Ren, et al., 2008), is able to
identify 42 vegetation types, of which 15 types are for forest, 11 for grassland, 6 for tundra
and 10 for desert, which can classify the global terrestrial vegetation comprehensively,
systematically and evenly. The agreement between the CSCS and BIOME4 PNV maps
(overall Kappa statistics of 0.63) is similar to that of the HLZ and BIOME4 PNV maps
(overall Kappa statistics of 0.62), both notably less than the very good agreement between
CSCS and HLZ PNV maps (overall Kappa statistics of 0.74). Good agreement also occurs for
CSCS vs. BIOME4 and HLZ vs. BIOME4 PNV maps with a 0.5 block size simulated by
CSCS, HLZ and BIOME4 models using global climatology datasets collected over the same
time period (e.g., the 30 years from 1961 to 1990. In the 5 broad vegetation categories, the
tundra has an excellent agreement (0.90) between CSCS vs. HLZ maps, and very good
agreements (0.76 and 0.84) between CSCS vs. BIOME4 and HLZ vs. BIOME4 maps. As
grassland vegetation accounts for a quarter of the global land area, and plays an important
role in the global terrestrial ecosystems, in developing countries where data are limited and
mechanistic models are unavailable, simple correlation models such as the CSCS model was
the most feasible alternatives. The model has been deeply developed and widely used in
natural vegetation classification, and now recognized as one of official natural vegetation
classification methods in China.
The influence of climate change on natural ecosystems was deep and profound (Harpole,
et al., 2007; Nemani, et al., 2003), yet the interactive effects between global change factors
and terrestrial vegetation remain largely unknown (Dukes, et al., 2005). A critical step in
improving the way we manage the grassland ecosystem is to take stock of the current
distribution status of grassland ecosystems. To help disentangle these complex issues and to
assess grassland ecosystems variations in response to climate change in the past 90 years, we
analyzed the effects of climate change using the CSCS model, and then quantitatively
assessed the effect of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems of the four study area.
The CSCS approach for mapping potential natural vegetation
The CSCS model is formulated through the grouping or clustering of classes with similar
moisture and temperature properties. The system is composed of 42 vegetation classes, which
is classified by edaphic conditions and vegetation characteristics (Hu and Gao, 1995). The
CSCS consists of a three class level: Class, Subclass and Type. At the first level, vegetation is
grouped into classes according to an index of moisture and temperature. At the second level,
vegetation subclasses are differentiated by the edaphic conditions. At the third level,
vegetation types within a subclass are distinguished by vegetation characteristics. In this
approach, the class is determined by combining quantitative biological climate indices of
average annual cumulative temperature above 0 C (i.e., Growing Degree-Days on 0C base,
GDD0). The class level, the basic unit, is identified according to zonal characteristics of
biological climate. In practice, the class is determined by combining the quantitative
biological climate indices of average annual cumulative temperature above 0C ()
(Growing Degree-Days on 0C base, GDD0) and humidity (K), as calculated by:
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39

( ) / ( . ) / . K u = = MAP 0 1 MAP 0 1 GDD0 (1)
Where MAP is the annual mean precipitation (mm); and 0.1 is a justified coefficient of
the model.

Global climatic data
To produce global potential vegetation distribution maps based on the CSCS models, the
Climate Research Unit (CRU) of global climate dataset CRU_TS 2.1 was utilized (Mitchell
and Jones, 2005). It consists of multi-variate mean monthly climatology at 0.5 resolution for
global land areas excluding Antarctica for the period during 19012000. In this study, the
monthly precipitation and mean temperature datasets of each decade were used. To simulate
the change of global potential vegetation distributions from 1911 to 2000, the average annual
cumulative temperature (GOD0) and precipitation grided data of different periods were
incorporated from month data by using ArcGIS v9.3 software (ESRI, Redlands, CA, USA).
In addition, all of the related databases are transformed to the Mollweide projection with the
WGS_1984 spheroid to calculate the area of each vegetation type.

Global potential vegetation maps
Grassland ecosystems distribution were created by ArcGIS software. According to IPCC
TAR, the temperature increased obviously in the 20th century in northern hemisphere, and
the extent is beyond past 1,000 years, most of the warm periods were from 1910 to 1945 and
1976 to 2000. Based on this results, we divided the 90 years into three periods as 1911 to
1940 (T1), 1941 to 1970 (T2) and 1971 to 2000 (T3) to map the grassland ecosystems in
North America, Australia, Europe and China.

Results
The global potential natural vegetation maps from 1911 to 2000 were obtained
through the CSCS. According to our results, there are 5 grassland types in China, and the
largest grassland type was tundra and alpine steppe, followed by temperate humid grassladn,
semi-desert, steppe and savanna. The total area of grassland ecosystems decreased from
454.510
4
km
2
to 450.110
4
km
2
(0.77%) in the period from 1911 to 2000, in which, the most
obviously decreased was steppe, which decreased by 14.29%. Similarly, the area tundra and
alpine steppe also declined by 1.05%, from 190.75 10
4
km
2
to 188.75 10
4
km
2
. While the
mostly increased was found on temperate humid grassland with 4.37%, the semi-desert also
expanded from 97.75 10
4
km
2
to 100.510
4
km
2
(2.81%). As to savanna, it was not the main
grassland type, which just accounted to 0.25 10
4
km
2
.
In North America, the total grassland area was more than twice than that in China, but
also showed a decrease trend, which decreased from 1190.25 10
4
km
2
to 109410
4
km
2
(8.09%). The tundra and alpine steppe was the most widely distributed grassland type, and
the overall deceased trend was also observed with 10.54%. But the most declined type was
semi-desert, which decreased from 115 10
4
km
2
to 98 10
4
km
2
(8.09%). The steppe and
temperate humid grassland also presented a decrease tendency with 14.13% and 4.54%,
respectively, while the increase trend was only found on savanna with 3.50%.
In Europe, the total area of grassland ecosystems increased from 318.5 10
4
km
2
to
338.5 10
4
km
2
(6.20%), in which the temperate humid grassland was the dominate grassland
type, which increased 6.2% in the period from 1911 to 2000. The increasing trend was also
found on semi-desert (23.3%) and savanna (35.29), but the area of savanna was least of all
grassland types, which increased from 4.25 10
4
km
2
to 5.75 10
4
km
2
. The decreased trend
was just observed on steppe, which decreased from 58 10
4
km
2
to 51.5 10
4
km
2
(8.09%).
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40

In Australia, the overall increased trend was also observed, which increased from 452
10
4
km
2
to 591 10
4
km
2
(30.75%). Savanna was the main grassland type which occupied
nearly 90% of total grassland ecosystem, and its area change contributed most the total
grassland ecosystems variation. Based on our findings that the area of savanna increased from
392.5 10
4
km
2
to 538.25 10
4
km
2
(37.13%), while the area of temperate humid grassland
seemed to be neglect when compared with savanna. The second largest grassland ecosystem
was semi-desert, which decreased from 44.5 10
4
km
2
to 40.25 10
4
km
2
(9.55%), the
decreasing trend was also observed on steppe, which decreased from 14.75 10
4
km
2
to 12
10
4
km
2
(18.64%).
According to our study, the rising temperature and redistribution of precipitation play a
significant role in plant physiology and lead to major changes in grassland ecosystems, which
might in turn provide feedbacks on climate through its effect on meteorological conditions
over the land surface (Pielke, et al., 1998). Changes of regional and seasonal climate pattern
could strongly influence the diversity and distribution of species and thus affect ecosystems
and biodiversity. Global warming and the redistribution of precipitation over the 20th century
was an indisputable fact. Especially, in the northern hemisphere, the increase in temperature
in the 20th century was the largest of any century during the past 1,000 years according to
IPCC TAR (IPCC, 2001). This paper analyzed and compared the changes of grassland
ecosystems in North America, Europe, Australia and China. According to our results, due to
the different climate conditions and terrains, the grassland ecosystems types were totally
different. Tundra and alpine steppe, for example, grew up in the high latitude and elevation,
so it was not found in Australia, and the largest distribution was estimated in North America
due to its high latitude. But as the global warming trend, the temperature went up obvious in
mid- and high latitude on the northern hemisphere during the past century, so the tundra
grassland was forced head northward or high elevation, and its distribution shrunk, which
was agreement with that changing dynamics in China, (1.05%) Europe (9.55%) and North
America (10.54%). Another grassland type that grew in temperate zones was temperate
humid grassland, and its largest distribution and decreasing trend was still found in North
America, while in China and Europe, the very opposite trend was observed. This was also
resulted from the global warming trend which led to the expanding of temperate and humid
zones. As to savanna, which was strongly affected by tropical savanna climate, characteristic
of high temperate and distinguished dry and wet season, mainly distributed in the south and
north of rainforest in Africa and South America and encircling warm desert in Australia.
According to our research, the area of savanna in China and Europe was very small which
can be negligible when comparing with other grassland types. What`s more, with the
increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall in Australia, the area of savanna expanded in
the period from 1911 to 2000 with 3.5%. Steppe and semi-desert showed up on all these four
regions, and the area of steppe all presented decreasing trend with 14.29% in China, 18.64%
in Australia, 11.21 in Europe and 14.13% in North America, while the variations of semi-
desert were different, which increasing trend was found in China and Europe, the decreasing
trend was observed in Australia and north America as a result of the redistribution of
precipitation and rising temperature.

Conclusions
A CSCS-derived model can be used to simualte grassland ecosystems distribution,
which is a critical part of research regarding the effects of climate change on vegetation
successions, and plays an important role in the management and planning of anthropogenic
controls on terrestrial vegetation, especially in many developing and undeveloped regions or
countries lack of historical data. The overall conclusion from this analysis is that grassland
ecosystems were undergoing significantly variations, the toal area of grassland ecosystems in
The 6
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41

China, North America and Europe were all decreased except in Australia. Garssland
ecosystems in mid- and high latitude were becoming more fragile and fragment,and appear to
be more sensitive and vulnerable to climate changes than most other ecosystems because of
their complexity and diversity. The reasons for the changes of grassland ecosystems in
different periods in the 20
th
century might be complicated. Global climate change, especially
the differences of climate change and continents distribution patterns which led to the
significant differences of temperature and precipitation in the northern and southern
hemispheres, was the main cause of the changes of grassland ecosystems.

References:
Cosgrove, B.A., Barron, E.J. & Pollard, D., (2002). A simple interactive vegetation model
coupled to the GENESIS GCM. Global and Planetary Change, 32 (2-3):253-278.
Dukes, J.S., Chiariello, N.R., Clel, E.E., Moore, L.A., Shaw, M.R., Thayer, S., Tobeck, T.,
Mooney, H.A. & Field, C.B., (2005). Responses of grassland production to single and
multiple global environmental changes. Public Library of Science Biology, 3 (10):1829-
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FI, W., TM, S. & WR, E., (1995). A global land primary productivity and phytogeography
model. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 9:471-490.
Harpole, W.S., Potts, D.L. & Suding, K.N., (2007). Ecosystem responses to water and
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Hu, Z. & Gao, C., (1995). Improvement of the comprehensive and sequential classification
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IPCC, (2001). Climate change 2001: The scientific basis. Contribution of Working Group I to
the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
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LR, H., (1947). Determination of world plant formations from simple climate data. Science,
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LR, H., WC, G., WH, H., T, L. & JA, T., (1971). Forest Environments in the Tropical Life
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monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids. International Journal
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Nemani, R.R., Keeling, C.D., Hashimoto, H., Jolly, W.M., Piper, S.C., Tucker, C.J., Myneni,
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OMara, F.P., (2012). The role of grasslands in food security and climate change. Annals of
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Ren, J.Z., Hu, Z.Z., Zhao, J., Zhang, D.G., Hou, F.J., Lin, H.L. & Mu, X.D., (2008). A
grassland classification system and its application in China. Rangeland Journal, 30
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7:785-809.

LEARNING FROM THE PRACTICE BY APAN NODES IN ASIA-
PACIFIC REGION

Dr. Puja Sawhney
Coordinator of the Regional Hub for Asia Pacific Climate Change Adaptation Network (APAN)

Abstract
Climate change is a stressor on human and natural systems and socio-economic sectors. It poses as an
additional challenge to the already difficult task of managing ecosystems and promoting sustained
economic development in developing counties, in view of the relatively weak institutional capacity and
the existing constraints on social and economic development.
The Asia Pacific Adaptation Network (APAN) since 2009 aims at building climate resilience of
vulnerable human systems, ecosystems and economies through the mobilisation and sharing of
knowledge and technologies to support adaptation capacity building, policy-setting, planning and
practices.
APAN works through its five Sub-Regional Nodes and three Thematic Nodes for the implementation
of the relevant APAN activities. There are many lessons to be learnt from APANs work in the region
on climate adaptation which are relevant in the Mongolian context related to good adaptation practices
in the water and agriculture sector and the mountainous region.

The 6
th
43

Natural Resources and Environmental Science
MAPPING OF FOREST RESOURCES OF REPUBLIC BURYATIA
BASED ON RADAR AND MULTISPECTRAL DATA

Tumen N.Chimitdorzhiev
1
,Kirill S. Emelyanov
2
, Irene I.Kirbizhekova
3
,
rtur .Garmaev
4
, axim . Gusev
5
1
D.Sc., deputy director, Institute of Physical Material Science of the SB RAS, 670047, Ulan-Ude, 8,
Sakhyanovoy str., IPM SB RAS, Russia; Phone.: +7 (3012) 433184, E-mail: tchimit@ipms.bscnet.ru
2
Chief of department, Research Center for Earth Operative Monitoring of JSC Russian Federal Space Agency
(NTs OMZ), 127490, Moscow, Decabristov st., b.51, h.25, Russia; Phone.:+7 (495) 925-0419, E-mail:
eks@ntsomz.ru
3
D.Sc., senior researcher, Institute of Physical Material Science of the SB RAS, 670047, Ulan-Ude, 8,
Sakhyanovoy str., IPM SB RAS, Russia; Phone.: +7 (3012) 433184, E-mail: kirbizhekova@bk.ru
4
leading engineer, Buryat branch of the Federal State Unitary Enterprise "Roslesinforg", 670042, Ulan-Ude,
63, Tobolskaya str., Russia; Phone.: +7 (3012) 421728, E-mail: kingartur@mail.ru
5
leading engineer, Research Center for Earth Operative Monitoring of JSC Russian Federal Space Agency,
127490, Moscow, Decabristov st., b.51, h.25, Russia; Phone.: +7 (495) 925-0419, E-mail:
gusev_ma@ntsomz.ru

Keywords: radar polarimetry, spectral analysis, mapping forests.
Abstract
Currently, the creation, development and improvement of methods to mapping forest vegetation on the
basis of remote sensing data are an urgent tasks forestry complex performance. Forest maps are need
for inventories of forest resources, planning of forestry and forest management, monitoring the current
changes substantiate rational placement network of environmental facilities, the development of
measures for environmental protection in general, etc. A using the satellite imagery allows
considerably reduces the cost and time of renovation of maps of different scales. The report presents
the results of application the methods of mapping of forest resources based on combination
polarimetric radar and optical satellite data. As test areas were chosen Kunaley and Mukhorshibir
forestries in Republic Buryatia. To evaluate the methods effectiveness and to control cartographic
material accuracy, data inventory, data on clearings, burned areas, and data on the topography of the
study area, grid of districts in vector form are collected. For test forestries is compiled a comprehensive
mapping material, including terrain features, species composition, assessment of forest biomass and
others based on data SPOT5, ALOS PALSAR and Radarsat2 2006-2012.

Currently, the creation, development and improvement of methods to mapping forest
vegetation on the basis of remote sensing data are urgent task of the forestry complex (Isaev
F.S., 1991; Suhih V.I., 2005). The use of space images can significantly reduce the cost and
time of renovation of maps of different scales. In this case, the role of technology based on
the use radiowave systems increases. Modern synthetic aperture radar SAR can take images
of the Earth surface of around the clock and in any weather (Kozlov A., 2007; Melnik Yu.A.,
1985) with a super high spatial resolution (up to 1-3 m).
As shown by the predecessors for study of forest medium is promising combination of
radar and optical satellite data (Armand N.A., 1998; Bondur V.G., 2008; et al.). In 2012 the
joint efforts of the Buryat branch "Roslesinforg", RC EOM "Russian Space Systems" and
IPM SB RAS in Republic Buryatia was tested a method combining radar and optical data for
mapping forest. The forestries of Kunaley and Mukhorshibir was selected as a pilot test sites.
For any are chosen next ground data: network of forest areas and stand out in a vector form
*.shp; forest taxation data, including the area, species composition, age, tree density, wood
stock, the availability of regenerative growth and undergrowth etc. Also, collected
information on the clearings, burned areas and the data on the topography of the study area.
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According to the data inventory (10-20 year-old) in the study area the species
composition of the individual parts of the forest varies from deciduous birch-aspen (B-As)
unto conifer pine-larch (P-L). Mainly on the studying territory the mixed woodland are
distributed with a predominance one of the follow species: pine, larch, birch and aspen. Cedar,
fir, usually is not missing or more than 40%. Completeness varies from 0, 15 to 1. Timber
reserves varies from 20 to 330 m
3
/ha.
Verification of results on the satellite images processing showed that ground
information should meet the following requirements: a representativeness of forest inventory
data on species composition; completeness of the stand; timber resources; the minimum
interval between the time of the inventory and satellite survey; the information on
deforestation (location, age); as complete as possible information on burned areas and some
others. Inventory for 3-5 quarters with at least 20-30 highlighted section of the forest is
enough.
Identification of forest and non-forest areas, the classification of forests on species
composition, tree density, and other parameters were made on the basis:
- SPOT5 multispectral optical imagery (545, 645, 835 and 1665 nm) with a resolution of
10 meters and panchromatic image (595 nm) with a resolution of 2.5 m, obtained in
September 2011;
- ALOS PALSAR polarimetric radar data with full polarization (hh, hv, vh, vv) in the L-
band and a resolution of 30 m, 25 May 2006 at Mukhorshibir;
- ALOS PALSAR radar data in the L-band with a dual polarization (hh, hv) and
resolution of 15 m, obtained 02 October 2010 at Kunaley;
- Radarsat2 radar data dual polarization (hh, hv) in the C-band at 8 m resolution,
obtained in September 2012 year.
In accordance with the information contained in the files accompanying we performed
georeferencing satellite imagery, carried out orthorectification and amended the radar images
in accordance with the terrain relief. The optical images in pseudo geographical coordinate
system, radar data in geographical coordinate system, and network of forest quarters and
highlighted sections of the forest in Pulkovo coordinate system are presented. For consistency,
and subsequent comparative analysis all the satellite images and ground network of forest
quarters are transformed to a single coordinate system UTM datum WGS84.
The combination of optical, radar and ground-based data revealed the need for
additional correction. For example, multi-spectral and panchromatic images on SPOT5
Kunaley area offset with respect to quarter networks on 900 m in longitude and 170 m in
latitude. Offset radar images ALOS PALSAR is an order of magnitude smaller. Offset radar
images Radarsat2 is over 2,2 km. In contrast to the binding process of the same type of
images, optical to optical or radar to radar, the choice of reference points in images of various
types rather difficult and the average error binding was significantly higher than normal rms
~ 10.
It is obvious that in the mapping and inventory largest territory must also be allow for
the difference scale images obtained from different sources, and make adjustments to forest
quarter network with the satellite information and reference to the geodetic control points on
the surface of the Earth.
For preliminary analysis of forest areas, based on satellite data were formed RGB-
composite images. Based on multispectral data SPOT5 most clearly is RGB-image in natural
colors: R channel 2 (red), G channel 3 (near infrared), B channel 1 (green). On radar
data most clearly is RGB-image of polarimetric decomposition, for example on fig.1a is show
a RGB-image on base Freeman decomposition. The color tone can determine the dominant
type of reflective surfaces: ponds, areas of soil with low vegetation or without (blue), an area
with strongly expressed vegetation (green), human settlements (red), etc.
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For the selection of the most effective methods of classification multispectral images
were used several criteria: the convergence of clustering process, the control of coincidence
boundaries of quarters and highlighted sections of the forest with the boundaries obtained
clusters, according to the taxation data of individual forest areas and panchromatic image.
In the classification are used from 2 unto 30 iterations. Among the tested methods: the
unsupervised classification ISODATA, supervised method of maximum likelihood and
minimum distance method of selection of basic components, the method of spectral angle
based on the reference spectra and the test sites based on vegetation indexes, etc. The most
effective for study areas was a combination of unsupervised methods with the involvement of
elements of spectral analysis (see fig.1.b).

a b
c d
Fig.1. a) RGB-image of Freeman decomposition polyarimetric data for Mukhorshibir May 25, 2006, and b) the
combination of the classification map areas of high, medium and low biomass (thick, medium and thin
hatching); 3D-image radar vegetation index RVI, where, as a basis is a common intensity (c), and the index itself
(d).

On test areas to map the species composition of forest the subpixel spectral analysis
was used. The method of linear mixing suggests that the spectral profile of each pixel in the
image is formed by summing the contributions of several objects in proportion to their
presence on the ground. The method is very sensitive to a set of reference spectra of
individual components. The main criterion for the preparation of such a complex values is
small error rms. As research on small fragment, the method is sensitive to the method of
transformation of images. As a result, have been identified and mapped the distribution of the
main tree species/components for both test forestries: pine, larch, and wild growing bushes,
deciduous trees (birch, aspen, etc.). Each breed is summed over the spectrum of several
components such as wood, bark, leaves, cones and needles. In the case of dense vegetation in
the spectrum of the optical image shows only the top layer of the forest canopy.
Radio waves in the centimeter and decimeter range have large penetrating ability,
through which we can study the morphology of forest canopy, such as tree trunks, large and
small branches, etc. (Zakharov A.I., 1998, Kirbizhekova I.I., 2008, 2010). With sparse forest cover
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(for forests Republic Buryatia average compactness is 0,6) radar signal penetrates up to the
soil. Study the prospects of using radar data showed that many of polarimetric characteristics
can serve as markers of forest and non-forest environment, but most of them are correlates
strongly with the terrain, and are sensitive to the geometry of radar survey.
To a lesser degree the terrain reflected in such indicators as radar vegetation index,
polarization ratio, the ratio of the intensities of the radar reflection on the cross and coherent
polarization. The last indicators depend on the amount of scatterers environment or total
biomass (L-band) or phytomass (C-band). Therefore, to a certain extent, they can characterize
the distribution of biomass and
phytomass. For more accurate
quantitative biometric forest
environment, it is necessary to
carry out fundamental studies
of regularities of processes of
reflection and scattering of
radar waves in difficult
conditions in the highlands.

Fig. 2. Distribution of forest
phytomass for Mukhorshibir and
Kunaley forestries on radar data C-
range obtained by Radarsat2 in
September 2012.

Autumn 2012 the joint expedition was carried out by district representatives of
Mukhorshibir and Kunaley forestries, Roslesinforg and Institute of Physical Materials
Science for testing in field conditions of the classification results of satellite images. It
confirmed the high accuracy of classification.

This work was supported Research Center for Earth Operative Monitoring of JSC
Russian Federal Space Agency under ROC "Development of basic verification
interdepartmental use of remote sensing products based on ground observation for forestry
purposes."

References
Armand N.A., Chimitdorzhiev T.N., Efremenko V.V. [etc.] (1998). On the possibilities of co-
processing of radar images L - range and multispectral imagery optical range for the classification of
forest. Radio Engineering and Electronics. V. 43, 9, 1070-1075.
Isaev F.S., Suhih V.I., Kalashnikov N.E. [etc.] (1991). Aerospace monitoring of forests. M.Nauka.
Bondur V.G., Chimitdorzhiev T.N. (2008). Remote sensing of vegetation optical-microwave methods.
News of higher educational institutions. Surveying and aerial photography. 6, 64-73.
Kirbizhekova I.I., Darizhapov D.D. (2008). Analysis of polarimetric data SIR-C/X on the delta river
Selenga. Scientific Bulletin of Moscow State Technical University of Civil Aviation. 133, 24-29.
Kirbizhekova I.I., Batueva E.V., Darizhapov D.D. (2010). H-A--classification of data on ALOS
Selenga Delta. Vestnik of higher educational institutions. Physics. V. 53, 9-2, 25-26.
Kozlov A., Loginov A., Sarychev V.A. (2007). Radar polarimetry. Polarization structure of radar
signals. Moscow. Radio. 640.
Radar techniques Earth exploration / ed. Yu.A.Melnika. M. Sov.radio. (1985). 262.
Suhih V.I. (2005). Aerospace methods in forestry and landscape construction: a textbook. Yoshkar-
Ola: MarSTU, 392.
Zakharov A.I., Nazarov L. (1998). Classification of forest types based on the analysis of texture
characteristics of radar images SAR SIR-C. Study of Earth from space. 2, 102-109.
The 6
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47

THE IMPACT OF FOREST FIRE ON FOREST COVER TYPES AND
FOREST COVER CHANGE

NANDIN-ERDENE Geserbaatar
1
, TSOLMON Renchin
2
, Oyuntsetseg Dashdorj
3

1Researcher, NUM-ITC-UNESCO laboratory for RS and GIS, National University of Mongolia, NUM
building1, 401, Sukhbaatar, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
Mongolia; Tel: + 976-91245867, E-mail: nandia_n2@yahoo.com
2
Professor, Director of NUM-ITC-UNESCO laboratory for RS and GIS, National University of Mongolia, NUM

building 1-401, Sukhbaatar, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
UB38-625, Mongolia; Tel: + 976-94992163, Fax: +976-11-329993
E-mail: trz112@num.edu.mn

Key words: Object-oriented classification, forest cover type, forest fire, forest cover change

Abstract
The objective of this study aims to estimate the impact of forest fires on forest cover types and forest
cover change. This study has identified 14 cover classes with a description of 9 vegetation
compositions including 8 forest cover types from Landsat TM data with 30 m spatial resolution. The
forest types such as, cedar, pine, larch, birch, shrub and three types of mixed forests were identified.
Different classification methods have been used for classification of satellite imagery. In addition to the
current classification methodology used the object-oriented techniques for classification and analysis of
satellite data. In the object-oriented approach, the images were segmented to homogenous areas as
forest types by suitable parameters in some level. The results of accuracy assessment showed that the
object-oriented techniques could classify forest types better than the pixel based classification method.
In the results of the object-oriented classification, those are assumed as a homogenous area and an
object. The overall accuracy of the forest type maps was 86.3 percentages for 2000 and 83.7
percentages for 2011. The fire impacts assessment results showed that 25239 ha type of forests were
changed to burnt area and 52603 ha forests were changed to grassland.

Objectives
The objectives of this study include
to determine the impact of forest fire on forest cover types and forest cover
change,
to develop forest cover classification scheme from satellite data interpretation
and forest distribution scope,
to evaluate forest cover change from different temporal scales,
to determine how the forest fire influences the forest cover types,
Study area
This study area, Eruu suom, is located in the sub-tundra zone and forest steppe zone between
49 50 N latitude and 106 - 108 E longitude. Most areas are between 800 to 2000 meters
elevation. The total territory of Eruu suom is approximately 8394.2 square kilometers, of
which forest areas cover around 86.1% of the land.

Figure1. Position of study area
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48

The climate surrounding Eruu suom consists of a mean annual temperature of about 7.00C
while the mean monthly temperature ranges from -220C to 190C. A maximum temperature of
36.4 C has been recorded in June, and minimum temperature of -40.1 C has been recorded in
January. The average annual precipitation is 276 mm and is concentrated between May and
September.
Data
In order to investigate Landsat TM data potential for forest mapping, a small window on 131-
25 and 131-26 scenes from 13
th
of September 2000 and 20
th
of September 2011 and some
ancillary data were selected.
Table1. Collected data of study area
Satellite Sensor Date acquired Spatial resolution (m)
Landsat ETM+ 14 April 2000 30
Landsat ETM+ 13 September 2000 30
Landsat TM 20 September 2011 30
Thematic data
Topographic maps
GDEM (Aster) 30
Forest inventory map 2009
Ancillary data
Forest fire information 2000 2011 (burnt area)
Forest statistic data 2007
Software
ERDAS IMAGINE 9.1
ArcGIS 9.3
ENVI 4.7
Definiens developer 7.0

Methods
Object-oriented method
In general, the object-oriented approach and the image analysis process can be divided into
the two principal workflow steps, segmentation and classification.
Object-oriented techniques: The meaningful primitive objects, which obtained by
segmentation, can be classified through two methods: Sample-based classification by nearest
neighbor classifier and rule-based classification by membership function technique. The
experiences were showed that when several different feature order objects into classes, the
nearest neighbor method should be used and when only few discrete features can separate
classes from each other, use of membership function is optimal choice.
The nearest neighbor classifier, as a supervised classification method needs training area in
multidimensional feature space. It would be useful when user has no knowledge to describe
feature spaces. In the nearest neighbor method or the sample-based method, the primitive
objects are classified through similarity to training units or segments for each class. The rest
of objects in the image are belonged to their nearest sample in each class. It usually uses
spectral attributes; the objects will have extra information such as shape, texture, context
attributes and topological relations between neighborhoods and other objects. This
information can be used for extraction of each class in classification.

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49

Results
Burnt area analysis
Figure2. Burnt area map of study Figure3. The change of burnt area from
area from 2000 to 2011 2000 to 2011 in study area

Forest cover type classification
Figure4. Shows classified satellite images in 2000 and 2011 years. These images have
identified 14 cover classes with a description of 9 vegetation cover including 8 forest cover
types from 30 m spatial resolution Landsat TM data. Such as cedar, pine, larch, birch, shrub
and three types of mixed forest. Different classification method has been used for
classification of satellite data.

Figure4. Classified maps in 2000 and 2011

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50

Table2. Land covers change in 2000 and 2011
Land classes 2000 2011 Change %

Area unit (Hectares)
Cedar 51439.5 66353.6 22.4
Pine 96925.4 104137.1 6.9
Larch 98232.1 48672.6 -50.4
Birch 110734.1 127771.2 13.3
Birch and pine mixed 36868.9 64532.7 42.8
Farmland 20976.8 20829.6 -0.7
Settlement 236.7 284.6 16.8
Grassland 184172.7 188676.1 2.3
Meadow 14982.1 16875.2 11.2
Burnt area 617.8 27744.6 97.7
River 2210.2 2097 -5.3
Shrub 45635.3 41413.5 -9.2
Birch and larch mixed 31895.6 9214.2 -71.1
Cedar and larch mixed 140196.2 118997.7 -15.1

In 2011 the forest cover area has decreased by 5.03% and non-forested area has increased by
11.9% compared to the 2000 image. Cedar increased by 22.4%, pine increased by 6.9%, larch
decreased by 50.4%, birch increased by 13.3%, birch and pine mixed forest increased by
42.8%, shrub decreased by 9.2%, birch and larch mixed forest decreased by 71.1%, cedar and
larch mixed forest decreased by 15.1%, farmland decreased by 0.7%, settlement increased by
16.8%, grassland increased by 2.3%, meadow increased by 11.2%, burnt area increased by
97.7% and river decreased by 5.3%.

Change detection of burnt forest area

Figure 6. Change detection map of
compared 2000 and 2011

Figure 7. Change detection in 2000
and 2011

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51

Conclusion
For this study used Landsat TM data from 2 different time period for forest cover types
classification and the study area covers 7 forests types.
The results of accuracy assessment showed that the object-oriented techniques could classify
forest types better than the pixel based classification method. In the results of the object-
oriented classification, those are assumed as a homogenous area and an object. The overall
accuracy of the forest type maps was 86.3 percentages for 2000 and 83.7 percentages for
2011.
According to the fire statistics of 2000-2011 over Eruu soum during 2007-2009 occurred
biggest fires of 1065-1972 sq.km areas, which mean that the study area is high risky region to
the forest fire.
The fire impacts assessment results showed that 25239 ha type of forests were changed to
burnt area and 52603 ha forests were changed to grassland.

References
Brad Smith W., (2002). Forest inventory and analysis: A national inventory and monitoring
program. Environmental Pollution 116, S233-S242
Gyanesh Chander, Brian L. Markham, Dennis L. Helder. (2009). Summary of current
radiometric calibration coefficients for Landsat MSS, TM, ETM+, and EO-1 ALI sensors.
Remote Sensing of Environment 113, 893-903
Goldammer, J.G., Fire situation in Mongolia. International Forest Fire News No. 36, 46-66
Luuk K.A Dorren, Bernhard Maier, Arie C.Seijmonsbergen., (2003). Improved Landsat-
based forest mapping in steep mountainous terrain using object-based classification. Forest
Ecology and Management 183, 31-46
Peter T.Wolter, David J. Mladenoff, George E. Host, Thomas R. Crow. (1995). Improved
Forest classification in the Northern Lake States using multi-temporal Landsat imagery.
Photogrammetric Engineering & Remote Sensing 61(9), 1129-1143
Reija Haapanen, Alan R. Ek, Marvin E.Bauer, Andrew O.Finley. (2004). Delineation of
forest / nonforest land use classes using nearest neighbor methods. Remote Sensing of
Environment 89, 265-271
Shataee, S., Kellenberger, T., Darvishsefat, A.A., Forest types classification using ETM+
data in the north of Iran / comparison of object-oriented with pixel-based classification
techniques.
Takuhiko Murakami. (2004). Seasonal variation in classification accuracy of forest-cover
types examined by a single band or band combinations. 9, 211-215
Tetsuji Ota, Nobuya Mizaoue, Shigejiro Yoshida. (2011). Influence of using texture
information in remote sensed data on the accuracy of forest type classification at different
levels of spatial resolution. 16, 432-437
Xiangming Xiao, Stephen Boles, Jiyuan Liu, Dafang Zhuang, Mingliang Liu. (2002).
Characterization of forest types in Northeastern China, using multi-temporal SPOT-4
VEGETATION sensor data. Remote Sensing of Environment 82, 335-348

The 6
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52

WATER MAPPING THROUGH TASSELED CAP TRANSFORMATION
AND WATER INDEX BASED ON THE UPDM

Muhammad Hasan Ali Baig
1
, Lifu Zhang
2
, Kai Liu
1
, Xukai Zhang
1
, Tong Shuai
1

1
Researcher, Hyperspectral Remote Sensing laboratory, Institute of Remote Sensing & Digital Earth, Chinese
Academy of Sciences, China, mhasanbaig@irsa.ac.cn
2
Professor, Hyperspectral Remote Sensing laboratory, Institute of Remote Sensing & Digital Earth, Chinese
Academy of Sciences, zhanglf@irsa.ac.cn

Index Terms TCT, VIUPD, UPDM, Water mapping, flood, Landsat, Remote sensing.

Abstract
Importance of water mapping through remote sensing in the field of agriculture, ecology and disaster
management has been an important focus of researchers for decades. Different indices are used for
water delineation from its underlying and background features. This paper compares a sensor-
dependent Tasseled Cap Transformation (TCT) and sensor-independent water index based on the
Universal Pattern Decomposition Method (UPDM) for a water mapping of Manchar Lake, Pakistan.
Landsat TM data has been used in this research. Contrast Method is used to analyze the
efficiency of both indices. Results proved that UPDM appeared to be more efficient than TCT in
delineating water body from its background features by enhancing contrast.

Introduction
Calamities of flooding are unquestionable especially in developing countries which lack
infrastructure for proper management of their irrigation system(Sanyal & Lu, 2004). Remote
sensing is thus considered as a pivotal tool in disaster management (Li et al., 2006; J. Zhang,
Zhou, Xu, & Watanabe, 2002). Different bands or their combinations are used to assess the
water coverage area for proper delineation of flooded and non-flooded areas(Jain, Singh, Jain,
& Lohani, 2005; Sanyal & Lu, 2004). Although microwave data has a capability to penetrate
clouds and work both in day and night but due to its low temporal resolution, it is often used
as complementary to optical data for flood monitoring(Smith, 1997). That's why easy
processing and availability of optical data led to develop different methods to extract water
features from non-water features. Different indices are being utilized for extracting water
features like NDVI, NDWI, MNDWI NDPI, DFI and TCT etc.(Crist & Cicone, 1984; Ji,
Zhang, & Wylie, 2009; McFeeters, 1996; Rover, Wylie, & Ji, 2010; Wang, 2007; Xu, 2006).
All the above mentioned indices are sensor-dependent indices and are affected by the
performance of the sensors and thus difficult to compare their performances obtained from
different sensors (Chen, Zhang, Zhang, & Liu, 2013; Fu & Wang, 2010; L. Zhang, Furumi,
Muramatsu, Fujiwara, & Daigo, 2006; L. Zhang et al., 2003). UPDM and Vegetation Index
based on UPDM (VIUPD) provide the sensor-independent analysis and thus provide a very
good way to compare the performances of different sensors. This research work is aimed to
examine the suitability of UPDM for water mapping along with the TCT. This is a first
assessment work to check the practical application of UPDM/VIUPD in order to tune it for
operational flood monitoring for future research work. Region of Indus River basin during
disastrous flood of 2010 is picked along with the biggest lake of Pakistan, Manchar Lake.
First methodology methodology will be explained which will be followed by discussion of
results.

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53

Data and Methodology
Study Area and Data Preprocessing
Lower Indus basin in the Southern Punjab containing both barren and irrigated areas
including the Manchar Lake in Sindh Province which were badly affected by flood 2010 are
considered in this study as a study area. A region bounded by 28o 4N, 67o5E to 26oN,
68o3E is chosen in this study where Region 1 (R1) consists of part of the area at higher
latitudes while Region 2 (R2) consists of the whole Manchar Lake at lower latitudes of the
study area. In 2010, flooding started in mid of August and it was at its peak till the mid of
October, so we chose the images of October 22, 2010 only for this paper.
TM data was mosaicked through ENVI and FLAASH Atmospheric Correction utility was
used to get surface reflectance products. Datasets were resized for the same area.

Water Indices
Tasseled Cap Transformation (TCT)
The Tasseled Cap Transformation was presented in 1976 by R.J. Kauth and G.S. Thomas for
the patterns found for LANDSAT data from crop lands as a function of the life cyle of the
crop(Crist & Cicone, 1984; Kauth & Thomas, 1976). By employing the principal components
analysis, Tasseled Cap transformation transforms the image data into a new coordinate
system with a new set of orthogonal axes. The primary axis, called brightness, is statistically
calculated as the weighted sum of reflectances of all spectral bands and accounts for the most
variability in the image. Brightness is associated with bare or partially covered soil, natural
and man-made features. The second component greenness (TCT-G) which is orthogonal to
the first component, is associated with green vegetation, while the third component is
orthogonal to the first two components and is associated with soil moisture, water, and other
moist features.
Universal Pattern Decomposition Method (UPDM)
For UPDM, reflectance (or brightness) data for each pixel observed by a sensor are
decomposed into standard spectral patterns of water, vegetation and soil as follows:
R(i)C
w
P
w
(i)+C
v
P
v
(i)+C
s
P
s
(i)+C
4
P
4
(i) (1)
where R(i) is the reflectance of band i measured on the ground (or by satellite sensor) for any
sample (or any pixel), and Cw, Cv and Cs are the decomposition coefficients while P
w
(i),
P
v
(i), P
s
(i) and P
4
(i) are the standard spectral patterns of water, vegetation, soil, and the
supplementary yellow-leaf pattern for band i(L. Zhang, Furumi, Muramatsu, Fujiwara, &
Daigo, 2007). It was also mentioned that for some studies a UPDM with only three
components is adequate covering about 95.5%.
While Vegetation Index based on UPDM (VIUPD) can be expressed as:
VIUPD = (C
V
0.1C
S
+ C
4
)/(C
V
+ C
S
+ C
W
) (2)
Where C
V
+ C
S
+ C
W
is representing the cumulative reflectance(L. Zhang et al., 2007).

Otsus Thresholding Method
After initial preprocessing, by using available feature of TCT in ENVI and writing code in
IDL for UPDM, all images were processed to delineate water from non-water features. Then
Otsu method (Otsu, 1975) was used to calculate thresholds for delineating water from its
underlying features. Otsu's thresholding method involves iterating through all the possible
threshold values and calculating a measure of spread for the pixel levels either fall in
foreground or background. Data stretching, by using Band Math feature of ENVI, was also
applied to convert all indexed-derived images to binary images having values in the range 0
to 1 so that those binary images could easily be used with Otsu method in Matlab
environment.

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Accuracy Assessment Methods
On the basis of thresholds calculated by using this method, binary maps were generated
which were used as masks over the original TCT and UPDM images. These masked images,
binary mask images and original TCT and UPDM images were together used to calculate
contrast (C) between mean of water pixels (F) and mean of background pixels (B) by using
Contrast Method (Lu, Wu, Yan, & Wang, 2011; Xu, 2006):
C=F-B (3)
Results and Discussion
Figures 1 and 2, for both regions R1 and R2 respectively, are showing the mapping results.
Fig.1 is showing the water extraction results for R1. From the visual analysis, water
coefficient for UPDM (UPDM-W) is representing the water in grayish color in contrast to
water in black color in TCT-G image and seems not very clear due to color contrast. But
when Otsus threshold was applied, it gave better results than TCT as associated with false
color composite. More water features were extracted as evident by false color composite.
While from Fig.2, it seems that UPDM-W is more sensitive to sediments added into water
due to flood. So, it separated that part of water from main water body and treated as non-
water feature.

Thresholding is the second most crucial part of water delineation or extraction after choosing
water index. Efficiency analysis by using contrast method also depends upon the results
derived on the basis of thresholds. Otsus method couldnt work well in the case of UPDM-W
for R2. The threshold through Otsu was so high that most of the non-water features were also
included as water in case R2. So, manual selection of threshold was done for UPDM-W for
R2.

Conclusions
Table 1 Analysis of Contrast Values for both TCT and UPDM

Sensor Date Type TCT C=F-B
UPDM C=F-
B
R1 10/22/2010 F
-
191.224
-
367.654
240.66 587.94

B 176.43

-
347.28

R2 10/22/2010 F -11.5 -23.45 282.68 320.11

B 11.95

-37.43

Figure 2 Indus River in upstream of Manchar Lake. First
row is showing False Color image, TCT-G results, water-
mask and masked images respectively while second row is
showing the images in the same order for UPDM-W for
October, 2010
Figure 1 Manchar Lake during flooding. First row is
showing False Color image, TCT-G results, water-mask
and masked images respectively while second row is
showing the images in the same order for UPDM-W for
October, 2010.
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As a first part of our future-intended research, this is first time that UPDM and VIUPD are
used for water mapping as these indices were basically designed for vegetation analysis.
VIUPD and UPDM have already proved their superiority over other indices for vegetation
research. From this research for water mapping, it seems that water decomposition coefficient
of UPDM and VIUPD can be used for water mapping by exploiting its sediment-sensitive
feature. It is also clear from the Table 1 that contrast values are higher for UPDM-W as
compared to those for TCT-G. It means UPDM can better delineate water from non-water
features and can extract more water feature which are not extracted by TCT. If this index is
tuned further then it would be a very important break-through in the field of water mapping
both for irrigation and disaster management.

Acknowledgement
We are very grateful to all those who helped in this research. We especially want to thank Mr.
Bruce K. Wylie, Ms. Jennifer Rover and Mr. Lei Ji from USGS for their kind help and
suggestions. Students at Hyperspectral Remote Sensing like Mr. Huang Changping, Mr. Hu
Shunshi, Mr. Sun Xuejian, Mr. Zhao Hengjian, Ms. She Xiaojun and Ms. Li Xue Ke for their
timely help. Ms. Han Xingxing from Wuhan University also contributed a lot.

References:
Chen, X., Zhang, L., Zhang, X., & Liu, B. (2013). Comparison of the sensor dependence of
vegetation indices based on Hyperion and CHRIS hyperspectral data. International
Journal of Remote Sensing, 34(6), 2200-2215.
Crist, E. P., & Cicone, R. C. (1984). A physically-based transformation of Thematic Mapper
data---The TM Tasseled Cap. Geoscience and Remote Sensing, IEEE Transactions
on(3), 256-263.
Fu, Y. Z., & Wang, X. Q. (2010). Analysis of vegetation indices based on the CCD data of
BJ-1. Science of Surveying and Mapping, 35(6), 35-38.
Jain, S. K., Singh, R., Jain, M., & Lohani, A. (2005). Delineation of flood-prone areas using
remote sensing techniques. Water resources management, 19(4), 333-347.
Ji, L., Zhang, L., & Wylie, B. (2009). Analysis of Dynamic Thresholds for the Normalized
Difference Water Index. Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing, 75(11),
1307-1317.
Kauth, R. J., & Thomas, G. (1976). The tasselled cap--a graphic description of the spectral-
temporal development of agricultural crops as seen by Landsat. Paper presented at
the LARS Symposia.
Li, J., Ysou, H., Huang, S., Li, X., Xin, J., Wang, X., & Andreoli, R. (2006). ENVISAT
ASAR medium and high resolution images for Near Real Time flood monitoring in
China during the 2005 flood season. Paper presented at the Proc. 2005 Dragon
Symposium Mid-Term Results, Santorini, Greece 27 June1 July 2005.
Lu, S. L., Wu, B. F., Yan, N. N., & Wang, H. (2011). Water body mapping method with HJ-
1A/B satellite imagery. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and
Geoinformation, 13(3), 428-434. doi: DOI 10.1016/j.jag.2010.09.006
McFeeters, S. (1996). The use of the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) in the
delineation of open water features. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 17(7),
1425-1432.
Otsu, N. (1975). A threshold selection method from gray-level histograms. Automatica,
11(285-296), 23-27.
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Rover, J., Wylie, B. K., & Ji, L. (2010). A self-trained classification technique for producing
30 m percent-water maps from Landsat data. International Journal of Remote Sensing,
31(8), 2197-2203.
Sanyal, J., & Lu, X. (2004). Application of remote sensing in flood management with special
reference to monsoon Asia: a review. Natural Hazards, 33(2), 283-301.
Smith, L. C. (1997). Satellite remote sensing of river inundation area, stage, and discharge: A
review. Hydrological processes, 11(10), 1427-1439.
Wang, S. (2007). The Quantitative Research on Dynamic Changes between flood and
Vegetation in Tarim river valley. PhD, Beijing Normal University.
Xu, H. (2006). Modification of normalised difference water index (NDWI) to enhance open
water features in remotely sensed imagery. International Journal of Remote Sensing,
27(14), 3025-3033.
Zhang, J., Zhou, C., Xu, K., & Watanabe, M. (2002). Flood disaster monitoring and
evaluation in China. Global Environmental Change Part B: Environmental Hazards,
4(2), 33-43.
Zhang, L., Furumi, S., Muramatsu, K., Fujiwara, N., & Daigo, M. (2006).
Sensorindependent analysis method for hyperspectral data based on the pattern
decomposition method. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 27(21), 4899-4910.
Zhang, L., Furumi, S., Muramatsu, K., Fujiwara, N., & Daigo, M. (2007). A new vegetation
index based on the universal pattern decomposition method. International Journal of
Remote Sensing, 28(1), 107-124.
Zhang, L., Mitsushita, Y., Furumi, S., Muramatsu, K., Fujiwara, N., & Daigo, M. (2003).
Universality of modified pattern decomposition method for satellite sensors. Paper
presented at the Asia GIS Conference Publications, Wuhan University, China.

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DEVOLUTION OF PROPERTY RIGHT IN THREE FOREST
MANAGEMENT REGIMES IN NEPAL

Lok Raj
Forestry Student, Beijing Forestry University

Introduction
Nepal has a total land area of 147,181 square kilometers and three distinct geographical
areas: the southern lowland plains (Terai plateau) along the southern border with India (20%
of land area); the central band of foothills (56% of land area); and the high Himalaya
Mountains along the northern border with China (24% of land area). Thirty percent of
Nepals total land area is classified as agricultural land; only 1% of total land is permanent
cropland (World Bank 2009a; FAO 1999a). In this mountainous country inhibits
26,620,809 populations (2011 census) with 1.4 % growth rate.
Eighty-three percent of Nepali live in rural areas and rely on agricultural land, forests, and
fisheries for their livelihoods. Nepal has an estimated 2.5 million hectares of cultivable land
and 18 million head of livestock (2001). Half the population and most of the countrys
agricultural production are concentrated in the Terai. Cereal crops dominate production: 40%
of cropped area is devoted to rice (irrigated and rain-fed), followed by maize (20% of
cropped area), and wheat (17% of cropped area). Maize and wheat are primarily grown on
rain-fed land. The balance of Nepals production includes vegetables, pulses, oil seeds, sugar
cane, and fruits (World Bank 2009a; Sharma 2001; Silpakar 2008; ADB 2004).
Total forest cover is 37.4 percent of total land of country and also has 12 % grass lands and
5 % shrub land. It consists greater variation in elevation, lowest elevation starts from 70 m
mean sea level to highest point Mt Everest 8848m with wide varieties of climate and bio
diversity. Total forest of the country is managed under broad two management objectives,
one is protected forest which is managed for the conservation of biodiversity and habitat
conservation and second is national forest used as production forest. National forest, based on
management objectives can be further divided into community forest, leasehold forest,
religious forest and government managed forest. Beside this private forestry practice is most
common among farmer in country side.
Forest is distributed though out country in small to very big chunk allowing people to access
very easily. Thus the most accessible forests are handed over to the community those were
indigenously using by rural people. Moreover, some forests near new cities are also managed
as community forest. The large chunks of forests have been managed as protected area
namely national parks, wildlife reserves and simply biodiversity conservation areas. These
parks are so distributed that represent all geographic regions: terai, mid hills and Himalaya.
Some high productive forests are managed by government forest administrative unit called
district forest office directly or in connection with public participation that is called
collaborative forest management. Among the different management regimes in this paper the
property right system of major three of them viz. community forest, national park (buffer
zone community forest) and collaborative forest management regimes is tried to compare.
History of forest management in Nepal is not too long. The private forest nationalization step
can be taken into historical major forestry step by the government in 1957. Before the date
most of forests were managed as private property by some local elites and people used to pay
them for using the forest area or products including some small forests were owned privately.
The nationalization of Nepals forests in 1957 ignored the diversity of existing management
systems and took over the responsibility and autonomy of local people to manage the lands,
converting community lands into state lands.(Takako W.). But there were still the usufruct
social norms to use forest for their daily needs like firewood and fodder. That step leads rapid
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depletion of forest condition urging some step to take by government. In 1970s the
importance of local farmers participation in managing forest is realized by the government
and participatory forest management system is granted by regulations. Eventually present
decentralization of forest resource management is granted by Forest laws 1993 and forest
regulation in 1995.
Similarly the other management system was also in development stage simultaneously. After
the nationalization of forest, first national park was established in 1963 with very strict
prohibited rules and regulation to enter such protected areas. The government has attempted
to normalize the local resistance and conflicts through various means that include strategic,
military, economic and educational approaches to policy and institutions. In response to
strong demand for access to thatch grass, park authorities have opened up the parks since
1976 for few weeks each year to allow thatch grass collection.( Naya S et al 2006) .
Participation is often defended as a radical approach that allows local people the opportunity
to express agency though which people exercise their political citizenship in shaping the
decisions that affect them (Gaventa 1999). The public participation and public support in
conservation is realized from the experience of community forestry program and buffer zone
concept is started in 1996. Buffer zone is the surrounded forest cover around the core area of
national park. In this area people can manage the forest for their forestry products daily needs
like timber, firewood and fodder with limited property right over the resource restricting to
inter core area (central part of national park).
In fact, participation in its most promising form is interpreted as the foundation of democratic
decentralization that allows citizens to govern public resources at different levels of
governance (Hickey and Mohan 2004). The community forestry program was launched in
mid hill and Himalayan region. The demand of community forestry was very strong in Terai
plains with very high value productive forest. Due to the complexity to identified possible
forest users group and issues of right over the forest of the people living in far distance makes
government to put forward a new participatory management system namely collaborative
forest management system(CFM) in 2000 forest policy. CFM in general is loosely defined as
a working partnership between the key stakeholders in the management of a given forest- key
stakeholders being local forest users and state forest departments, as well as parties such as
local governments, civil groups and non-governmental organizations, and the private sector
(Carter and Gronow, 2006).This is the system of limited use right of local people over
forest and jointly managed by government forest unit, local government, NGOs and the
people.
Although these three system is under implementation in Nepal, there are different views over
the effectiveness and pros and cons of the system, the objectives of this paper is to compare
the three different forest management system, elements and issues in respect to property right
in sustainable forest management in Nepal.

Results and Finding
Community forest and property rights system:
In Nepal 1.1 million hectares of forest that is about 25% of the national forest area, has been
handed over to more than 13,000 Community Forest User Groups involving 1.4 million
households that is 35% of Nepals total population (DoF 25 years of CF). The program is
launched for fulfillment of basic forest product need and sustainable use of forest resource.
The program is based on the assumption that people are highly dependent on forest resource
therefore they will manage forest wisely and sustainably for future continue supply. It is a
group of local people who will be able to maintain the conditions sustainably over time due to
their vested interests (Adhikari 2002).

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Key elements of community forestry:
- Local forest unit (District forest office may hand over any part of a national forest to
users group in the form of community forest in prescribed manner entitled it to
develop, conserve and manage such forest, and sell and distribute the products by
independently fixing prices, according to operational plan.
- While forming forest users group DFO shall take into account the distance between
forest and village and management capability of villagers.
- Forest act granted clear property right over resource other than the forest land.
Community forest groups formed under the forest act shall be autonomous and
corporate body with perpetual succession and it may acquire, use, sell or transfer or
otherwise dispose movable and immovable property like individual.
But there are some activities that are banned in community forests. According to forest
regulation 1995 The Users Group shall not take any of the following functions in the
Community Forest, besides those functions which are prohibited by the Work Plan:-
(a) To destroy the Forest or mortgage or otherwise transfer the ownership of the land
covered by the Community Forest,
(b) To clear Forest areas for agricultural purposes,
(c) To build huts and houses,
(d) To take any action this may cause soil erosion.
(e) To capture or kill wild-life in violation of prevailing laws,
(f) To extract or transport rocks, soil, boulders, pebbles, sand etc.

Property rights in CF
S.No. Property rights Description
1 Rights to withdrawal Granted to local groups all products with some limit
2 Rights to manage Granted to local group according to management plan
Taxes on sale of specified forest product in some region
some limit to sell products to outside user, prohibited
specified activities
3 Rights to exclude Granted to local group,
Some limit of incorporating new households
4 Rights to transfer Limited rights granted to local groups

Protected area management system with Park and people program and property
rights:
Department of National Parks and Wildlife set up the Parks and People project in 1995 to
fulfill the objectives enhancing the capacity of the department staff and local people around
protection area to ensure effective and sustainable management of resource. This program
is launched in eleven buffer zones.

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Key legal elements of buzzer zone:
- Any part of hamlet, village, settlement or ward and forest resources which lie within
the territory around protected area are included in buffer zone.
- Within the buffer zone the Warden should hand over the community forests
according to Buffer Zone Management Work Plan to the users' committees after
identifying the real users' group.
- The user's of the buffer community committee forest shall be allowed to use the
forest resources received from the forest area conserved and grown themselves after
paying rate prescribed by committee not exceeding in extent and quantity under the
work plan but users are not allowed to transport timber and fuel wood thus acquired.
- Forest committee cannot sell forest product obtain as drift wood, edge trees and
buried in river side.
- No physical structures such as house, hut, and shed of any kind can be constructed
by anyone in the area or buffer zone forest handed over to users' committee.
There are 11 buffer zone committees working in national parks and reserves comprising
141 users committees and 4073 forest user groups of total 111893 households.

Source: L.R Joshi, Buffer zone, Forestry.org.np
Property right system in park and people program:
Although the fifty percent of total revenue earn by national parks goes to buffer zone, these
institutions have very limited property right over resource and expenditure of fund. Table
shows the present status of property right in buffer zone.

1 Rights to withdrawal Granted to local groups, very limited
2 Rights to manage Not available to local groups
3 Rights to exclude Not available to local groups
4 Rights to transfer Not available to local groups
Source: Collective Action, Property Rights, and Decentralization in Resource Use in
India and Nepal- ARUN AGRAWAL, ELINOR OSTROM
Collaborative forest management (CFM) system and property right status:
In 2000, the revised Forestry Sector Policy made provisions for allocating out blocks of
high-value forests in the Terai through CFM. The Ministry of forest and soil conservation
(MFSC) approved operational guidelines for initiating CFM in the Terai in 2003. CFM
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differs substantially from CF and much more closely resembles Joint forest management
(JFM) in India or community based forest management (CBFM) in the Philippines. Rather
than being run by user groups, the CFM areas in the Terai are managed by a committee
dominated by the local forestry department. Additionally, 25 percent of the income from
CFM areas is to be allocated to local government units (Village Development Committees
and District Development Committees); while the remaining 75 percent is to go to the
national government (Bampton et al., 2007). Although community members have use
rights to firewood and fodder, income from the commercial sale of forest products is only
of indirect benefit to them, and they have little voice in how CFM areas are to be managed
(Brampton et al., 2007). The decision-making structure of CFM committees is laid out in
an MFSC directive that leaves no room for adapting the structure to local circumstances
(Bampton et al., 2007).

The key regulatory features of collaborative forest management regime:
- Government managed forest is one of the category as per mentioned in forest act
and regulation where CFM is implemented.
- There will be close collaboration among government forest unit local government
and people living near and far from the forest in planning, implementation and
review process.
- Institutional structure of CFM comprises CFM group, committee, sub committees
and implementation unit. CFM group is the apex body of forest management with
wide range of stakeholders.
- Revenue sharing mechanism as per CFM guideline will be 75% revenue goes to
national central treasury and 25 % to CFM group and local government body.
This is a new program first implemented on pilot basis in less than ten districts and is being
replicated to remaining potential forest area. The public participation is encouraging
especially from distance users. The tenure system is more centralized with limited direct
benefit in local level but opens enough room for participation in decision making and
implementation process for forest users and other stakeholders.

1 Rights to withdrawal Limited products granted to local groups,
Timber products collection by government unit

2 Rights to manage Managed by collectively, 25% revenue goes to local
level
3 Rights to exclude Not available to local groups,
4 Rights to transfer Not available to local groups,
Source: Small modification to Collective Action, Property Rights, and Decentralization in
Resource Use in India and Nepal- ARUN AGRAWAL, ELINOR OSTROM

Discussion of property right in different decentralization system and issues
Like almost all developing country, decentralization in natural resource management is the
key concern in Nepal too and could be seen in different level of decentralized property right
according to management option applied. Rural people are very poor and their livelihood
depends on forest resource. In India, for example, common resources have been estimated
to contribute some US$5 billion per year to the income of rural poor (T. Beck, Cambridge
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university, 1990).The figure is approximately applied to Nepal contest too. Being a major
resource for the livelihood of poor usufruct rights of people is granted same to some extend
to all system. Among three regimes, community forestry is more decentralized than BZ
community forest and CFM. In CF people have right to use all kinds of forest product even
in free of cost. Whereas BZ community forest people should pay certain amount for
products. Where as in CFM people can use lops and tops produced during harvesting timber
by government unit or collect round dry firewood from forest.
Secondly, contrast to withdrawal rights the management rights of local is very limited and
significantly different among the system. In CF people can manage their forest according to
their need and sell the surplus products outside freely. But they should follow the
government rules while selling products outside. Forest product quantity is limited by forest
inventory and yield projection. The total income from forest goes to community fund but in
some geographic region, government enforced 15 percent revenue share rules on price of
selling of some timber species outside user group. BZ community forest cannot sell
products outside user group and also cannot manage according to their need and should
give priority to wildlife welfare. In case of CFM forest management and fund management
is control by government unit and is managed by collaborative decision. Local level user
and local government got only 25 percent of revenue collected from the forest and rest is
gone to central government treasury.
Thirdly the right to exclude is very clear in CF they can ban the public from outside by
clear legal provision that is also mentioned in their constitution and operational plan.
Whereas other two systems do not have such clear rights, it is more decided by government
forest management unit representatives and local government body. Lastly, but not least the
transfer right in CF is little bit limited partially granted but other two system do not possess.
In the Nepalese and Indian contest collective action and decentralization of resource use is
compared as follow by A. Agrawal and E Ostrom in their paper collective action
property right and decentralization of resource use:

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Area of comparison Collaborative forest
management
Community forestry Park and people
program
Nature of macro level
politics around
decentralization
High donor pressure:
some interest in
decentralization among
state actors
High donor pressure:
some interest in
decentralization among
state actors
High donor pressure to
create program: no inter
departmental rivalries
Nature of local collective
action and its relationship
with macro level politics
Donor pressure match
from the interest of state
government: low level of
collective action match
the interest of central
government
Donor pressure and
limited collective action
locally match some
central govt interest:
emergence of new
factions against
decentralization
No collective action of
local level: little
connection with higher
levels politics.
Outcomes: participation
decentralization, resource
use pattern
Middle level of
decentralization and
participation
Decentralization limits
resource use and improve
resource condition in
some case
High level of
participation
Decentralization limits
resource use and
improve resource
condition in some case
Almost no
limited participation
Institutionalization is
limited and local use
patterns remain same
Note: In the table joint forest management system is similar to CFM but little changes had been made over
implementation process.

Major issues concerning property right of those management systems:
- It is the most challenging issue regarding property right and devolution what B.
Manandhar, National planning commission mentioned It is apparent that the
arrangements that emerged to replace common property regimes are ineffective in
promoting sustainable resource management. Where people still live near the forests
that their lives depend on, the transfer of their traditional rights into other hands
does not simultaneously transfer the physical opportunity to use these resources.
- Property right without excluding other is ill defined decentralized right in resource
management which cause negative gain game situation due to competition in use of
resource. For example, National parks and wild life reserves open access for certain
time period where everybody can inter and brings elephant grass leading excessive
extraction.
- The modern community forestry approach is based upon aspect of indigenous forest
management system that were practiced until the advent of nationalization of forest
(T. Wakinawa,2006), but in practice the customary rights of indigenous people are
shared with new comers equally. It causes loss of ownership on resource of
indigenous people leading over exploitation.
- There are many decentralized institutions in managing forest resources in different
types of forest management system, institutional capacity is still imperfect to take
responsibility which results several issues regarding governance and equity in
administration, decision making and benefit sharing among different interest groups
in community.
- One common definition of fairness is not changing the rule in the middle of game.
Community forestry program was running smoothly throughout the country, the
first amendment of forest act 1993 holds more power to punish forest users
committee in case of breaking provision of operational plan. One of the critical
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views of this action is there is negative impact on ownership of people over their
resource and broke the spirit of resource conservation and sustainable use.
- If the cost of ownership/management rights exceeds benefits, forests get converted
to open access resources. (K.R Kandel et.al 2008). The scenario can be observed in
near future because community forest especially near the city area became under
managed and less benefit they are getting from the forest than the cost of
conservation.
- Although there are mega changes in public customary right and concession over
resource, still there are many issues. Actually BZ operational plan is prepared by
government administrative unit not by the people, and that unit holds right to
dissolve the local peoples institution, human casualty is still high in forest area are
could not get proper compensation ( Bhatta and Karki 2008).
- There is a strong dissatisfaction among the conservation committee regarding top
down approach actually still in practice. Here is a quote The key management
decisions are taken elsewhere. We do not have authority to take action against
poaching. Planning also has become a ritual; we quietly agree on what authorities
propose. The project employees mostly coming from Kathmandu lead the process. -
Man Bd. Gurung, chair Conservation Area Management Committee, Annapurna
Conservation Area
- The existing policies and legislation have provided a legal grounding for
decentralization of forest management roles and responsibilities from the state to the
local communities, but frequent unilateral governmental policy amendments make
forest user groups sceptical about their rights (G.R. Dahal et al 2006)

Conclusion
In economics private property right system is most effective and sustainable system in
natural resource management too but the governments typical exercise at least some
discretionary command to control over resource cannot be neglected specially when
resource are limited and public livelihood is highly dependent on it there is amarket failure
of environmental service providing by forest. When saying so it is also call for devolution
of property right to satisfy the people not only government forest administrator. We know
that if the cost of ownership right exceeds benefits, people lose interest of managing the
resource. In large number of community forest and most of all other management system
are serving goods less than their cost because of market failure of environment service
providing by the forest. Therefore government should focus on to address this issue rather
than holding the controlling power over resource.

References:
1. Elinor Ostroma and Harini Nagendraa, Insights on linking forests, trees, and people
from the air, on the ground, and in the laboratory
2. Jules Pretty, Social Capital and the Collective Management of Resources
3. Baikuntha aryal, national planning commission, Nepal
4. Sudarshan Khanal, Property law in Nepal: Some comparisons to Anglo Saxon
Concept
5. USAID Country Profile, property right and resource governance Nepal
6. Arun Agrawal, Elinor Ostrom, Collective Action, Property Rights, and
Decentralization in Resource Use in India and Nepal
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7. Naya S. Paudel, Sudeep Jana, Jailab Rai, Protected areas and rights movements: The
inadequacies of Nepals participatory conservation
8. Takako Wakiyama University of East Anglia, England, Community Forestry in Nepal:
A Comparison of Management Systems between Indigenous Forestry and Modern
Community Forestry
9. Carla Barbieri, Francisco X. Aguilar, The Ius in Re Model to Analyze Users Rights
Within Complex Property Regimes: Two Ex Post Applications in South America
10. Elinor Ostrom and Harini Nagendra, Insights on linking forests, trees, and people
from the air, on the ground, and in the laboratory
11. Jules Pretty, Social Capital and the Collective Management of Resources
12. Schlager, Edella; Ostrom Elinor, Property-Rights Regimes and Natural Resources: A
Conceptual. Land Economics; Aug 1992
13. Ram Prasad lamsal, Policy perspectives and lessons learnt on community-based forest
management towards sustainable development
14. Naya S. Paudel, Sudeep Jana, Jailab Rai, Contested law: Slow response to demands
for reformulating protected area legal framework in Nepal
15. Jai N. Mehata and Stephen R. Kellert, Local attitudes toward community-based
conservation policy and programmes in Nepal: a case study in the Makalu-Barun
Conservation Area
16. James Hite, Emmerging property rights, Issues in resource economics
17. Keshav Raj Kanel and Ganga Ram Dahal, Community Forestry Policy and its
Economic Implications: An Experience from Nepal
18. Sudarshan Khanal, Property law in Nepal: Some comparisons to Anglo Saxon
Concept
19. Ganga Ram Dahal and Apsara Chapagain, Community Forestry in Nepal:
Decentralized Forest Governance

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RENEWABLE ENERGY FOR LOCAL COMMUNITY:
PERMORMANCE OF SOLAR HYBRID SYSTEM IN THE GOBI

Amarbayar Adiyabat
1

1
NUM-SPE, Department of Application Physics, School of
Physics and Electronics, National University of Mongolia,
Address: Ikh surguuliin gudamj - 1, Baga toiruu, Sukhbaatar district, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
Cell: +976-99045070, Fax: +976-11-329993, email: amarbayar@gmail.com

Abstract
This paper presents the results of a long-term performance analysis of PV-hybrid system based on 5
years operational data from the field site of Noyon soum, Umnugobi province, Mongolia, project
supported by New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization of Japan (NEDO).
The NEDO has performed demonstrative research on the independent dispersed PV-hybrid systems:
PV, 200kW, DEG (Diesel Engine Generator): 100kVA*3set) from 2002 to 2004 in Mongolia. The
main purpose of this project was to improve system reliability and cost performance on the natural
conditions and distinctive social systems, which are rarely seen in Japan.
It has been observed that the high PV penetration (during project period: 80.4% during 09/2003-
12/2007) 71% of total supplied energy, and the low system failure ratio. On the other hand, average
PR (performance ratio) indicated 0.20 (during project period), 0.14 (estimated values between
09/2003-12/2007) due to the limited demand and distributed/grid-connected PV units (100kW)
with the auxiliary power mode.

Introduction
The NEDO has performed demonstrative research
on hybrid type photovoltaic (PV) power generation
systems from 2002 to 2004 at Noyon soum,
Umnugobi province, Mongolia (see Figure 1). The
main purpose of these projects was to improve system
reliability and cost performance on the natural
conditions and distinctive social systems are rarely
seen in Japan [1].
This paper describes the results of a long-term
performance analysis of PV-hybrid systems based on measured operation data during project
period, and actual record data after the project period.

System configuration
The system consists of 4 dispersed grid-connected PV units, 2 centralized PV units, 2 lead-
acid battery units, central controller unit, and 3 sets of existing DEG (see Figure 2). Dispersed
PV units located at school (40kW), hospital (40kW), admin office (10kW), and
telecommunication station (10kW). Modular PC (power conditioner) 10kW employing multi
units build up systems were used in each PV unit. PC (10kW*10set) in a power center (PV
100kW), were separated into 2 lines (units) and each of them were designed to connect
storage batteries (288kWh, 1000Ah*2V*144cell).
Power conditioners of two centralized PV units, alternately switch between self-sustained
operations and grid-connected operations by orders of a central controller and carry out
adjustment of PV outputs and control of load sharing according as power demand variation
(figure 3). In this site, all of PV array are mounted at a fixed angle (60 degree) and facing
south (azimuth 0 degree).

Ulaanbaatar
Noyon
Figure 1 Location of the Noyon soum center

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67

Analysis and method
The field data analysis is divided into 2 parts: solar energy resource evaluation, and system
performance. For evaluation of the solar energy resource, we use monthly average irradiation,
and irradiation variable ratio. The system performance indices include reference yield, final
yield, system performance ratio, PV penetration ratio.
In this analysis, system operation data referred by 2 different source. Main data is measured
operation data during the project period (09/2003-03/2005), which was provided by an
implementer of the NEDO project. The actual data recorded after project period (04/2005-
12/2007), which was obtained by a follow-up survey at the field site. Main operation data
was measured every 30 minutes and stored in the data loggers. Measurement items were as
follows: incident global irradiance in array-plane (tilt angle: 60 degree), PV unit outputs
[kWh/30minut], battery input (charge) [kWh/30minut], DEG output [kWh/30minut] [1]
Solar Energy Resource Indices: The horizontal and in-plane irradiations [kWh/m
2
/day] were
used for the indices of solar energy resource.
System Performance Indices: All system performance data have been evaluated in terms of
operational performance and reliability. The evaluation procedures are based on the IEC
Standard 61724 [7].

Y
r
= H
A
/ G
S
(1) Y
A
= E
A,d
/ P
max
(2)
Y
f
= E
load,d
/ P
max
(3) PR = Y
f
/ Y
r
(4)
The reference yield Y
r
is based on the in-plane irradiation H
A
and represents the theoretically
available energy G
S
per day and kW
p
. The final PV system yield Y
f
is the daily PV system
output energy E
P
to the load per day and kWp, represents the number of hours per day that
the array would need to operate at its rated output power P
max
to contribute the same daily
array energy to the system as it was monitored. The system performance ratio PR is the ratio
of PV energy actually used to the energy theoretically available (i.e. Y
f
/Y
r
). It is independent
of location and system size and indicates the overall losses on the arrays rated output due to
module temperature, incomplete utilization of irradiance and system component
inefficiencies or failures [2, 3].

Figure 2 System configuration of the Noyon
field site

Figure 3 Main operation mode (PV+Bat and DEG
switching operation)
PV array Battery
Local Grid
Diesel Gen.
AC380V
PV array
288kWh*2 unit
50kW*2 unit
Cent.Controller
DC/AC
Distributed grid-connected PV
100kW (40kW*2, 10kW*2)
100kVA*3 set
50kW*2 unit
DC/AC
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Results
An average value of 2 year horizontal and in-plane irradiation indicated 4.51, 5.53
[kWh/m
2
/d/yr] in the Noyon site. Monthly in-plane irradiations were relatively constant,
because a seasonal variation of solar energy at the PV panel reduced by the high tilt angle
(Figure 4). Other reason of high tilt angle were as follows: 1) higher electric demand for
lighting in winter than warmer season, 2) snow sliding off by gravity, to avoid the snow cover.
Figure 4 Horizontal and In-plane (Tilt angle 60 degree) Irradiation [kWh/m
2
/d], NA in 2004/8

The figure 5 shows a typical one day operating condition of the system. In the morning, a
centralized and dispersed PV units charges batteries which have discharged on the previous
day. After charging, the system starts load following operations and the dispersed PV units
will be in standby conditions. Power demand increases in the evening and the system supplies
electricity according to shortfalls by order of central controller when solar irradiation
decreases. During DEG scheduled time (around 18:00-22:00PM), all the PV systems are
stopped, the system switches to only DEG operation modes. After that, electricity is supplied
by battery discharge at evening when power demand is low. Parallel hybrid operation of PV
and DEG avoided due to governor of existing DEG was manual.
Figure 6 for daily energy flow shows the centralized PV units (Center-1, 2 50kW) conducts
sharing operations of load power and operation time by switching between self-sustained
operations and grid-connected operations every other day.

Figure 7 Monthly average energy flow (NA in 2004/8)
Regarding the reference yield, compared to 3.72 hours of an average value of Tokyo (tilt
angle 40 deg.), 5.86 hours (Table 1) in Noyon, Mongolia was about 1.6-fold greater, which
means Noyon had rich solar energy resource.

0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
-100.0
-50.0
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
400.0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31
E
n
e
r
g
y
P
r
o
d
u
c
t
i o
n
[
k
W
h
/
d
]
April-2004
Charge-2
Charge-1
DEG
Admin 10kW
School 40kW
Telecom 10kW
Hospital 40kW
Center-2 50kW
Center-1 50kW
IrradTilt [kW/m2]
Daily Operation Profile of PV hybrid system
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
0:00 2:00 4:00 6:00 8:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00
E
n
e
r
g
y
P
r
o
d
u
c
t
i
o
n

[
k
W
h
/
h
]
2004/3/25
Charge-2
Charge-1
DEG
Admin 10kW
School 40kW
Telecom
10kW
Hospital
40kW
Center-2
50kW
Center-1
50kW
IrradTilt
[kW/m2]
Daily Operation Profile of PV hybrid system
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
-100.0
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
S
e
p
-
0
3
O
c
t
-
0
3
N
o
v
-
0
3
D
e
c
-
0
3
J
a
n
-
0
4
F
e
b
-
0
4
M
a
r
-
0
4
A
p
r
-
0
4
M
a
y
-
0
4
J
u
n
-
0
4
J
u
l
-
0
4
A
u
g
-
0
4
S
e
p
-
0
4
O
c
t
-
0
4
N
o
v
-
0
4
D
e
c
-
0
4
J
a
n
-
0
5
F
e
b
-
0
5
E
n
e
r
g
y

P
r
o
d
u
c
t
i
o
n

[
k
W
h
/
d
]
Charge-2
Charge-1
DEG
Admin 10kW
School 40kW
Telecom 10kW
Hospital 40kW
Center-2 50kW
Center-1 50kW
Ref. Yield [h]
Monthly Operation Profile of the Noyon PV hybrid system
Figure 5 Hourly energy flow (sample day:
2004/3/25)
Figure 6 Daily energy flow (2004/04)
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69

The average performance ratio indicated 0.20 (Table 1) during project period, 0.14 (estimated
value between 09/2003-12/2007, used in-plane irradiation data of 2003 (Figure 4) for
reference yield in every year)
An average final yield of grid-connected PV systems in Japan was about 1,000 hours a year
(2.74h/d) and a system performance ratio indicated around 0.75. An average performance
ratio of 37 portable solar home systems in Mongolia, was around 0.24 [4]. Compared to these
results, a performance ratio of Noyon system was a low value.
Causes of the low system performance ratio in this site were as follows: The PV systems
performed in self-sustained operation modes, and the PV systems whose size was about three
times as much as peak power demand (70kW) were installed to keep system reserved
capacities to maintain voltages and frequencies of the off-grid system. As a result, many
dispersed PV units stood by except when solar irradiation was low.
The system provides a high-level solar energy contribution of 80% and low-level of failure
rates from the view point of long-term reliability, environmental issues, and dependency rates
on fossil fuels.
On the other hand, to achieve self-sustained operations which provide power control
capabilities, installation of large-capacity PV systems and expensive initial investments are
required, which requires to be considered.
To prevent this situation, some measures are considered to increase the energy availability
factor. The measures are; an installation of PV system at low cost condition, decrease and
dispersion of peak load by DSM (Demand Side Management), an installation of adjustment
load (icemaker, pump).

Lesson learned
Measure for a demand increase
A soft measure to change a tariff system provided a stable transition according to dramatic
increase of power demand just after commencement of a project (Figure 8). Total power
consumption became more than double because electricity supply time had been extended
from about 5 hours to more than 12 hours. In addition, employment of a fixed charge system
was also one of the factors that power demand increased. Watt-hour meter were installed at
each consumers house and a metered rate system was employed as a new electric bill
collection system. As a result, half a year later, whole electric demand decreased and showed
a stable transition.
Cut and restart of fuel subsidies
The field survey found DEG operation was limited and power supply decreased because
government subsidies of diesel fuel cost for local electric companies who ran at a loss, were
cut. The subsidies were not supplied for one year and a half (see Figure 8). The limit of DEG
operation led to putting more load to battery, and then caused early deterioration and decline
in function. Since local government acknowledged that battery capacity of this hybrid system
was not designed to cover whole night load, local government resumed the subsidy system.
Then DEG power supply returned to the same level as before, that is: completion of the
demonstrative research project.
To gain local government and residents correct recognition for functions, characteristics and
disadvantages (running cost, replacement cost and etc.) of the installed system, site tour and
events with experiences activities during construction period are necessary.
Multi-parallel modular inverters
Installation of multiple inverters to form multi-parallel system, are important to deal with
component failures. To reduce system failure time and shortage for planned maintenance or
lightning stokes.
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70

In fact, 10kW modular inverter 20 sets with 4 spare for 200 kW PV capacity were installed in
September 2003, but three broke down because of lightning strikes from time of installation
to September 2009.
Multi-parallel modular inverters demonstrated by fact that the modular inverters provide
highly-efficient operations even at low load level and it leads to high maintainability in fault
conditions, and reduction of installation costs and quantity of works for system extension.
When dispersed-multiple PV systems with centralized controller are installed, additional
investment for control communication lines and control technologies focusing on demand-
and-supply balance among several PV systems are to be considered.

Conclusion
It has been observed that the high PV penetration ratio (during project period: 80.4%, during
09/2003-12/2007: 71%) of total supplied energy, and the low system failure ratio. On the
other hand, average PR (performance ratio) indicated 0.20 (during project period), due to the
limited demand and distributed/grid-connected PV units (100kW) with the auxiliary power
mode.

Acknowledgement
This work has been done as the Development of Supportive Technology for Designing PV-
Hybrid Power Generation Systems under the NEDOs International Cooperative
Demonstration Project Utilizing Photovoltaic Power Generation Systems (FY2006 - 2010).
The authors wish to thank NEDO and project implementers for providing the measured data
during project period.

References
[1] NEDO, Report of the Demonstrative Research Project on Dispersed Photovoltaic Power
Generation System in Mongolia, 2003-2005, March 2005, in Japanese
[2] IEC; The International Electrotechnical Commission, Photovoltaic system performance
monitoring Guidelines for measurement, data exchange and analysis, IEC 61724, 1998
[3] U. Jahn, D. Mayer, M. Heidenreich and etc. International Energy Agency PVPS Task 2:
Analysis of the operational performance of the IEA Database PV systems, 16th European
Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition, Glasgow, United Kingdom, May 2000
[4] A. Amarbayar, Kosuke Kurokawa, Performance Analysis of Portable Photovoltaic
Systems based on the Demonstrative Research Data in Mongolia, J. JSES, 168 Vol.31 No.4,
2005, page 83-88

Figure 8 Monthly average generated energy [kWh/month]

0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
DEG [kWh] PV [kWh]
NEDO Project Period
Change of electric tariff
(fixed to metered rate)
Non-subsidy for the fuel cost
Extension of
supply time
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71

SPATIAL PATTERN OF THE FERN SPECIES: CH.TENUFOLI A -A
DISTURBANCE INDICATOR

NARANTUYA Davaa
PO box 758, Ulaanbaatar 210646, Mongolia: dnarantuya@yahoo.co.uk

Keywords: Fern distribution; Cheilanthes tenufolia; GLM; Logit regression; Spatial pattern; GIS

Abstract
This study examines the relationship of distribution of Cheilanthes tenufolia with factors that include
slope gradient, slope orientation, altitude, solar radiation and anthropogenic forest disturbance. Logistic
regression models were developed to assess the relationship between fern observed sites and
topoclimatic and anthropogenic variables. GIS was used to extract spatial information and implement
predictive models for landscape distribution and diversity of the fern species. The distribution of
Cheilanthes tenufolia was related to slope orientation, human disturbance level and the degree of
canopy closure. Quantification of the extrapolated regression model across the study area showed that
the accuracy of the prediction was acceptable as 60 percent for distribution of Cheilanthes tenufolia
respectively.

Introduction
Species diversity varies along geographic gradients such as altitude and latitude (Strahler,
1965; Rosen, 1988; Huston, 1994). An increase in the number of species with decreasing
latitude has been reported for birds (Pomeroy et al., 1987; Huston, 1994), and other species
groups of vertebrates (Schall et al., 1978; Huston, 1994). Likewise, changes in species
diversity along altitudinal gradients have been reported. Hawkins (1999) described a decline
in bird community diversity with rising altitude. Plant species diversity appears to be higher
at intermediate compared to higher and lower altitudes (Beals, 1969; Hamilton et al., 1981;
Gamachu, 1988; Hegazy et al., 1998). Sato et al. (1980) described a similar pattern for the
diversity of fern species (Pteridophytes) in the Central European Alps. In the above studies it
was suggested that temperature-related factors as well as moisture determine upper altitudinal
limits of many species. In summary there appears general agreement in variation of species
diversity along altitude.
In Nepal there is a recorded increase in the number of fern species at intermediate altitudes.
Chaudhary (1988) recorded 272 species of Pteridophytes in middle hills, 78 species in high
mountains, one in Himalayas and 81 fern species in the lowlands. These figures however,
represent the total number of fern species described for these altitudinal zones. So far, no
detailed investigation has been done on fern species diversity along altitudinal gradients.
Ferns occupy relatively more humid habitats (Iwatsuki, 1989; Hietz et al., 1998; Lwanga,
1998, Richard et al., 2000). It has been noted that the Pteridophytes tend to cover moist and
shaded places rather than dry and open areas (Walker, 1994; Hiets et al., 1998). Mountains
display significant variation in moisture conditions related to orographic variation in
microclimate. This variation in moisture conditions is due not only to variations in altitude
but also to variations in radiation climate caused by slope and aspect (Strahler, 1965; Coker,
2000). Together these two terrain conditions determine a highly variable radiation climate
and differences in moisture conditions (Hamilton et al., 1981). We hypothesise that
additional factors like slope gradient, slope orientation, solar radiation and forest degradation
may contribute in explaining fern species diversity. Extensive studies on interaction of fern
diversity and the above-mentioned factors have not been widely studied. However, a few
studies that have conducted similar research argued that fern, bryophyte and lichen diversity
varied with topographic position gradients, vascular plant cover and time after occurrence of
fire (Pharo et al., 1999).
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72

Emphasis has also been put on, inter alia, the importance of solar radiation as well as
temperature in the explanation of species diversity (Currie et al., 1987; Hiura, 1995; Fitter et
al., 1998). Solar radiation estimates cannot be directly obtained from climatological data.
However, use of GIS may enable us to compute solar radiation over large areas (Nunez,
1983; Dubayah & Rich, 1995; Kumar et al., 1997).
Natural and human induced disturbance may lead to deforestation that may also result in
species loss. Forest thinning and clear-cutting severely alter the vegetation and microclimates
(McCaughey, 1985; Ough et al., 1996; Zheng et al., 1997). This may lead to decline in
species diversity. Bidin (1990) stated in his discussion on conservation program of fern flora
that high rates of deforestation threaten plant species that include ferns. However, there is no
empirically strong evidence supporting his claim of fern species decline with forest clearing.
This study examined the distribution and diversity of Nepalese terrestrial fern species
(Holttum, 1965) in relation to several variables that include altitude, slope gradient, slope
orientation, solar radiation as well as anthropogenic disturbance. The study was held at two
scales regarding the sampling strategy used. Geographic information system (GIS), remote
sensing (RS) and statistical methods have been used to achieve this.

Field sampling design
Stratified random clustered sampling design (Levy et al., 1991) was adapted for selecting
points to collect data. It was constrained by field time limits, excessive rainfall and steep
slope gradient. Samples selection commenced with selection of accessible (not exceeding 100
percent slope gradient) study area. Then, random points were generated in spreadsheet. The
co-ordinates of these points were registered as the centroid of the clusters to be sampled.
Within the cluster, five plots of 15x15 meters were surveyed. The distance between the plots
varied around 100 meters depending on accessibility. Inaccessible points were replaced with
the plots generated in the field. Global Positioning System (GPS) was used to navigate in the
field. Within the sampling plot three plots of 3x3 meters were randomly selected for fern
species records. In total 130 plots were visited and 388 records on fern species were captured.
Data collected
Key dependent variables such as fern species diversity and abundance were captured by
recording of the fern species counts and its cover estimate. Data collection was held at two
scales. The term scale was used following Atkinson (1997) in context of size. Small scale
refers to the small plot of
3x3m
2
and large scale meant
to bigger plot of 15x15m
2
.
General environmental
attributes were recorded at
large scale (table 1). A large
variation of species records
between different area
prevented the use of species-
area curve to define optimal
size of the field plot for fern
species records. After
consulting a Pteridophytes specialist the plot of three meters by three meters was chosen as
optimal for fern records as well as microclimatic data (table 2).
Table 2 Data collected at large scale

Field data Equipment used
Co-ordinate GPS, Garmin12
Altitude, m Altimeter
Slope gradient, % Slope meter
Aspect orientation compass
Vegetation canopy cover, % Field estimate
Terrain position Field record
Disturbance parameters: Field record
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Solar radiation data
Solar radiation data for the
study area was calculated
using the method proposed by
Kumar et al (1997).
Solar radiation received at a
site is dependent on altitude
and elevation of the sun, slope
and aspect as well as position
relative to neighbouring
surfaces (Kumar et al., 2000). The assumption of the model on radiation estimates on clear
sky days was met taking in average daily value per season.
The method is suitable enough for the area covering 116 km
2
, because it had cell size 15
meters by 15 meters that is small enough to show variation in solar radiation.
The time interval chosen for calculation of radiation data was 30 minutes. Radiation flux was
calculated for each month utilising ArcInfo GIS. Average daily solar radiation value per
season was calculated to be input into the modelling of the terrestrial fern species diversity.
For example, the solar radiation map of average solar value for autumn season is shown in
Figure 4.
The main secondary data sources used were Landsat TM7 image data of 2000 and
topographic data from topographic map of 1995.

Modelling relationship between fern species and environmental variables:
Statistical analysis was aimed at selecting the factors, both environmental and human
disturbance that may be related to the terrestrial fern species distribution. The main dependent
variable considered was:
1. Presence/absence of terrestrial fern species, Cheilanthes tenufolia
In the above case the data followed Binomial distribution. The binomial distribution was
modeled with the logit-regression technique.
Table 3 Microclimatic variables at small scale
Field data Equipment used
Fern species counts Field record
Slope gradient, % Slope meter
Slope orientation Compass
Micro-canopy cover, % Field estimate
Terrain position Field record

Figure 3 Frequency of C.tenufolia present in
different terrain group
Figure 4 Average daily solar radiation in autumn.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1 2 3 4 5
c
.
t
e
n
u
f
o
l
i
a
p
r
e
s
e
n
t

%
terrain group
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74

Modelling the distribution of Cheilanthes tenufolia
The choice of Cheilanthes tenufolia was subject to the expectation that this species colonizes
exposed disturbed environments and is thereafter may be an indicator of human interference.
The _
2
test was used prior to the analysis of relationship between presence/absence of
Cheilanthes tenufolia and the environmental variables.
The _
2
test revealed that in places with scarce canopy cover the species was present 51% of
sub-unit records. Half of the time it was recorded in completely open places. Statistically
there was significant association between the presence/absence of Cheilanthes tenufolia and
different canopy cover (_
2
-test; _
2
=11.538; d.f.=4; p=0.021).
The analysis of association of the species presence and terrain position group suggested
predominant occurrence of C.tenufolia on top- and middle slopes 58% and 61% of sub-unit
observation respectively. Statistical test showed high association between them (_
2
-test;
_
2
=25.120; d.f.=4; p<0.001).
Local slope orientation had strong association with the species occurrence (_
2
-test;
_
2
=23.969; d.f.=7; p=0.001). In almost two third of the observations C.tenufolia tend to
occur on south to west orienting slopes that are sunnier, warmer and drier than north facing
slopes.
On the contrary to slope orientation, the slope gradient had no association with C.tenufolia
distribution. The species was not recorded at altitude up to 450 meters and in completely
undisturbed area. Approximately every second of sub-units record was made in disturbed or
severely disturbed areas (_
2
-test; _
2
=7.253; d.f.=2; p=0.027).
Logit regression model
The relationship between number of environmental variables and presence of Cheilanthes
tenufolia was examined
with use of logit
regression. Response
variable on abundance of
the concerned species was
transformed into binomial
representation: 0 is where
species was not recorded
and 1 where it occurred.
The fully saturated model
was obtained with use of
stepwise Backward
(Wald) regression
analysis.
The predictors in the model at large scale were different from those obtained at small scale.
Disagreement in pattern with scales showed that parameters behave differently depending on
scale (Baker, 1989). Optimal model contained the variables significant at 95 percent
confidence interval, and they were independent from each other.
Further the fitted model was examined for its potential limitations (Nicholls, 1989). The
model is more accurate as deviance of residuals close to zero (Neter et al., 1996). Model
goodness of fit was examined with both the deviance residuals and the _
2
-test. Deviance
residuals of the obtained model varied from 1.9 to 1.7 indicating approximation to zero. The
_
2
goodness of fit test concluded that we failed to reject H
o
stating the logistic response
function is appropriate (_
2
=11.62<_
2

exp
=15.51; o=0.05, d.f.=8,). This supported us to
employ the same model for spatial extrapolation of distribution of C.tenufolia.
Table 4 Variables retained in the models of Cheilanthes tenufolia
distribution at both scales. (*) shows significant variables at o=0.05.
Large scale model Small scale model
Distubance 0.8128
Large-sc.canopy 0.4114
Small-sc.canopy 0.1651
Large-sc.slope orient 0.0072
Small-sc.slope orient 0.1556
Terrain position -0.408
Radiation in autumn -0.0904
Radiation in summer
Intercept -4.2316 1.4325

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75

Spatial extrapolation of the terrestrial fern species diversity and distribution
Data preparation for spatial extrapolation
Generation of spatial patterns of fern species diversity and distribution required spatial
database preparation. The models developed at large scales were extrapolated across the
study area. Input data layers preparation included development of the spatial database of the
significant predictors in the model. A spatial database containing slope orientation, forest
canopy cover and human disturbance level was set up for spatial modelling of C.tenufolia.
The method of moving average was used for the interpolation of spatial layer of the
categorical variables such as human disturbance level and canopy cover. Assuming that the
points located close together are likely to belong to the same class than those further apart,
the technique of weighted moving average was employed due to its smoothing property with
it maximum and minimum occurring at data points.
Model of Cheilanthes tenufolia distribution
Landscape distribution of C.tenufolia was also performed with spatial extrapolation of the
model obtained at large scale employing logit regression technique. The coefficients of the
significant variables are shown in table 10. The model had the following form:

Y= e
z
/(1+e
z
) where z = a+b*X
1
+ c*X
2
+d*X
3
where Y is presence of the species
X
1
is slope orientation
X
2
is canopy cover
X
3
is human disturbance level
The distribution of C.tenufolia was performed in terms of species presence and absence. It
was assumed that in case when p less than 0.25 would indicate absence of C.tenufolia, and
greater than 0.25 indicates presence of the species. The model resulted in 55% of all locations
without C.tenufolia and 65% of locations with C.tenufolia. Mainly the species distributed in
flat areas under agriculture and in limited parts of the natural ecosystem (Figure 13).
Validation of the map showed that at 95 confidence limit we are 23 percent confident to say
that overall accuracy of distribution of C.tenufolia is 60 percent (Appendix V). The
prediction showed little agreement with the ground truth, which is 0.0022. Therefore, it was
concluded that spatial extrapolation of the model obtained with logit function could
adequately predict the distribution of C.tenufolia in Makwampur district, Nepal.

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We were able to model spatial pattern of the fern species in Makwampur district using
regression techniques embedded in a GIS. Evaluation of overall accuracy of the spatial model
showed that it was reliable. Accuracy of the model of C.tenufolia distribution was more than
half times accurate.
Improved spatial models may be obtained with alternative filed sampling strategy and
increased number of sample size per class. Also possible inclusion of edaphic factors (Dhir,
1980; Monique et al., 2000) may improve the model.

Discussion and conclusion
The main objective of this study was to model the spatial distribution of Cheilanthes tenufolia
in Makwampur district, Nepal.
Our analyses were conducted at two scales. Different models were obtained at different scales
for both the fern species distribution.
Our expectation that C.tenufolia colonises exposed disturbed environments and may appear
as an indicator of degradation was partly supported with the obtained results. A positive
association between this species and two other species like D.linearis and P.biaurita was
found. The latter two species were reported to colonise exposed disturbed environments
(Dhir, 1980; Walker, 1994; Johnston-Maynard, 1998). Another supporting fact is that
distribution of C.tenufolia (at small scale) was related to variables such as canopy cover,
slope orientation, terrain position group and solar radiation. The species was likely to occur in
exposed warmer slopes under scarce to open canopy closure.

Figure 5 Spatial distribution of Cheilanthes tenufolia developed using logit regression technique
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Summarising complex species richness data was achieved by analyses of association between
individual species. The terrestrial fern species were grouped following Holttum (1965) in
context of shade fern and sun ferns. The results allowed us to conclude that the majority of
species exist together in communities as partial competitors (Whittaker, 1965). Their
distribution was overlapping. We concluded that the fern species were equally abundant
within the habitat. The majority of species favour shaded and humid habitat, and only three
species such as C.tenufolia and D.linearis and P.biaurita appear to prefer exposed warm
places.
Employment of the spatial statistical models was able to model the distribution of C.tenufolia
at landscape level with acceptable mapping accuracy. The model accuracy may be
manipulated with altering p value. Precise spatial model may be obtained with inclusion of
the additional edaphic factors that were reported to have marginal contribution in the fern
species richness (Buscher et al., 1979; Kato, 1989; Dyer, 1994).
For further studies on spatial pattern of fern species, it is recommended that edaphic
parameters to be taken into account along with the variables considered in this study. An
alternative sampling strategy with sufficient sample size for training may marginally improve
the spatial models of the fern species diversity and distribution.

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I ntegration of Remote Sensing and Geospatial Technology
ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY OF THE CRYOGENIC PROCESS
YAMAL PENINSULA OF RADAR DATA

1
2
, Marina O.Leibman
3
,
Michael E.Bikov
4
,Yuri Dvornikov
5
1
D.Sc.(Engeneering), deputy director, Institute of Physical Material Science of the SB RAS, 670047, Ulan-Ude,
8, Sakhyanovoy str., IPM SB RAS, Russia; Phone.: +7 (3012) 433184, E-mail: tchimit@ipms.bscnet.ru
2
PhD (Physics and mathematics), senior researcher, Institute of Physical Material Science of the SB RAS,
670047, Ulan-Ude, 8, Sakhyanovoy str., IPM SB RAS, Russia; Phone.: +7 (3012) 433184, E-mail:
kirbizhekova@bk.ru
3
D.Sc. (Geology and mineralogy), chief researcher, Earth Cryosphere Institute of SB RAS, 625000, Tyumen,
POBox 1230, ECI SB RAS, Russia; Phone.: +7 (916)6078393, E-mail: moleibman@gmail.com
4
PhD student, Institute of Physical Material Science of the SB RAS, 670047, Ulan-Ude, 8, Sakhyanovoy str.,
IPM SB RAS, Russia; Phone.: +7 (3012) 433184, E-mail: evgomond@yahoo.com
5
PhD student, Earth Cryosphere Institute of SB RAS, 119991, Moscow, Vavilov st., 30/6, Russia; Phone.: +7
(985) 2879220, E-mail: ydvornikow@gmail.com

KEYWORDS: radar interferometry, texture analysis, slope and coastal cryogenic processes.

Abstract
Due to the increasing anthropogenic pressure and climatic changes of the northern territories of
Western Siberia and the Arctic in the last decades active landslide processes, destruction of soil cover.
Because of the difficult weather conditions, long polar winter, thick snow cover the most promising for
research and monitoring methods are satellite radar. This report presents the results of a study of micro-
deformations of surfaces and landslides on the Yamal Peninsula, based on radar images ALOS
PALSAR and TanDEM-X. Test site for Marre-Salle and Vaskino cottages by differential
interferometry and localized areas of subsidence destruction in the coastal areas of frost heavingare
built DEM with a resolution of 10 m and as a result of comparative analysis of the two-year and
seasonal changes in the texture of radar images of the test site Vaskino cottages were differentiated
stable areas and areas with potential long-term changes.

Introduction
In the modern world of great scientific interest are the environment changes caused by
as human activities and global climate processes. One of the most powerful means of
monitoring the state of the environment and its changes are currently the methods of remote
sensing. Of particular relevance for the development of remote sensing acquired long and
hard to reach areas of northern West Siberia and the Arctic [2]. Due to the increasing
anthropogenic pressure and climate change here in the last decade, intensified landslides, soil
deformation and failure [1,7]. Because of the difficult weather conditions, long polar winter,
thick snow cover most perspective for research and monitoring are satellite radar methods. In
particular radar interferometry techniques have demonstrated high efficacy in the detection of
horizontal and vertical surface displacements of the seismic and technogenic character, "frost
heave" wet and swampy areas, shearing, etc. [4,8-10].
This article presents the results of the processing of radar images of ALOS PALSAR L-
band on the territory the Yamal Peninsula in 2007-2010 by methods of differential
interferometry and texture analysis.

Evaluation of vertical motions by differential interferometry
For detecting areas deformation test site Marre-Sale was held Interferometric
processing of radar data obtained ALOS PALSAR 5 February 2008, 28 March, 28 June and
13 November 2010. Figure 1 shows the interferogram filtered geocoded images on a pair of
February 5, 2008 - March 28, 2010. As seen on the picture most of the area is stable (light
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colors) - two years between surveys of surface deformation are absent. Land subsidence of up
to 5-6 cm are located along the coast line (gray), and the center - the territory of with a raising
2-3 cm on the edges and in the middle of 5-6 cm, respectively (dark gray). It should be noted
that the indicated strains in the figure are long-term. In particular, subsidence the upper and
lower end of the peninsula, perhaps, is due to the substrate parts melting ice out into the sea.
Or because of the overlapping waves through these fragments are flush-washout these
projections. The central zone is raised by the frost heaving of soils along the a wetland river.
Because magnitude of frost heaving of the soil is proportional to the average temperature in
the winter [8,10], then lift up to 6 cm could be due to the difference of the amplitudes of
swelling in winter 2008, and the cold winter of 2010.

Fig. 1. Geocoded filtered interferogram on the territory Marre-Sale, peninsula Jamal on a pair of radar images of
ALOS PALSAR February 5, 2008 - March 28, 2010.
DEM based on interferometric data
At present, the northern territories available digital elevation model (DEM) with a low
spatial resolution of 1 km. In the study of slope of landslide processes, and in the future when
their prediction is very important information about the features of the topography of the
terrain. Therefore, one of the objectives of the study was conducted by DEM. The technique
of construction is as follows: first, on the first pair images is built "reference" interferogram,
which contains information about the relief, then the second pair is constructed by subtracting
the reference to the interferogram. This displays only the shift of the surface without the
influence of topography. So on, with the standard procedures for the calculation of vertical
displacement maps [3]. Testing ground for Vaskino Cottages Yamal peninsula on three radar
images ALOS PALSAR 2007-2010 gg. with a resolution of 15 m were constructed maps
heights and vertical displacements. And on the basis of high-resolution images TanDEM-X
(X-band, 3.1 cm) high-precision DEM created with a spatial resolution of 10 m (see Fig. 2).
Studies have shown that the evaluation of the long-term strain the best results survey in the
middle of winter (December-January), with well-established processes of frost deformations.
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Fig. 2. DEM territory Yamal peninsula received on a pair of radar images TanDEM-X
November 9, 2012.

Localization of long-term changes based on texture analysis
Comparative analysis of seasonal changes in the texture and biennial radar images
showed the ability to identify long-term changes of the landscape with an assessment of the
probability [5]. Test site for Vaskino dacha, where deformation and landslide processes
occurred over the past 20-30 years, were selected four images ALOS PALSAR L-band (HH)
2007-2009 with a resolution of 15 m/px. Computed statistics texture radar images and their
variations during the winter season (from October 2008 to January 2009) and two years
(January 2007 - January 2009). For the test site and the seasonal distribution of the difference
between the two-year change was close to a Gaussian distribution. Thus, for each pixel can
calculate the probability that the seasonal changes exceed the long-term and vice versa.
Consequently, we can localize areas lying outside the bounds statistical variations (1-2-3 o)
with a certain probability, and to identify areas with abnormally large difference, that is, with
high probability, points to the real changes that have occurred.

Fig.3. Relative changes in the texture of radar images 2007-2009 test site Vaskino Cottages, n-in Yamal:
Seasonal (a) and two-year (b).

Figure 3 shows the relative seasonal and two-year change, normalized to the average
intensity for the season 2008-2009 In the first case, and the average intensity of the January
2007 January 2009 years in the second. As seen on fig.3a most significant fall-winter
variations correspond to the numerous water bodies, apparently when freezing. Therefore, the
statistical evaluation of variations of texture parameters was constructed and applied the mask,
excluding water bodies. According to the ground-based observations of significant landslide
deformation in the test site between radar surveys 2007-2009 did not occur, and the few small
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square areas with strong two-year changes are mainly along the roads movement of transport
or correspond to enhanced anthropogenic pressures.

Conclusion
The processing of radar data for test site Yamal peninsula: methods of differential
interferometry maps of vertical displacements, localized stable areas and areas with
significant shifts, based on high-resolution radar data built precision DEM with 10 m
resolution, established technique to identify the most likely sites deformations of the surface
based on a comparative analysis of seasonal and long-term changes in the texture of radar
images.
This work was supported by the integration project of SB RAS 144 "Cryogenic
resources of the Arctic and Subarctic: status and structure of permafrost, physic-chemical
modeling and biological potential of cryogenic systems".

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THE VEGETATION DYNAMICS OF GRASSLAND IN INNER
MONGOLIA AND RELATIVE ROLES OF CLIMATE CHANGE
AND HUMAN ACTIVITIES USING 3S TECHNOLOGIES AND
CASA MODELS

LI JianLong,

MU ShaoJie, Gang Chengcheng
Tel: +86-15850584761, Email: musjeg@gmail.com

KEYWORDS: Grassland Ecosystems, Restoration, Degradation, Climate Change, Human Activities, NPP

Abstract
China has a grassland area of nearly 4 million km2, amounting to 40% of its territory. Grassland plays
a critical role in both providing forage to feed livestock and alleviating many of the most challenging
environmental and ecological problems that humankind is facing. However, recent surveys have shown
that nearly 90% of the natural grassland in China is degraded to varying degrees, leading to profound
environmental and social problems. To combat the degradation, China has launched several ecological
projects with the primary aim of alleviating grazing pressure in the degraded areas, which deeply affect
the structure and function of grassland ecosystem. Grassland was the most widespread vegetation in
China and has a major influence on environmental quality and social-economical development.
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attracted the attention of many researchers. In this paper, vegetation dynamics of the grassland in Inner
Mongolia were studied by analyzing 10 years (2001-2010) satellite observations of vegetation
coverage. Potential NPP and the difference between potential and actual NPP were selected as
indicators to assess the relative role of climate change and human activities in vegetation dynamics.
The mean vegetation coverage of the total grassland area in Inner Mongolia was 0.37 in 2010,
increasing gradually from the southwest to the northeast part of the region. During 2001-2010, 42.10%
of the regions total grassland area tended to be restored, while 45.06% exhibited a degradation trend.
Human activities were the dominant driving force responsible for 78.54% of the restoration process,
while climate change only contributed 19.05%. However, in the degradation process, climate change
nearly played a coequal role with human activities, contributing 40.50% and 55.69%, respectively.

Introduction
Grassland is one of the most common vegetation types worldwide, covering nearly 24%
of the planets terrestrial surface (Zhao et al., 2012). China has a grassland area of nearly 4
million km
2
, amounting to 40% of its territory

(Akiyama & Kawamura, 2007). Grassland
plays a critical role in both providing forage to feed livestock and alleviating many of the
most challenging environmental and ecological problems that humankind is facing (Zheng et
al., 2006b). However, recent surveys have shown that nearly 90% of the natural grassland in
China is degraded to varying degrees, leading to profound environmental and social problems
(Nan, 2005)
.
To combat the degradation, China has launched several ecological projects with
the primary aim of alleviating grazing pressure in the degraded areas, which deeply affect the
structure and function of grassland ecosystem (Wang et al., 2011).
The vegetation state of grassland in China was experiencing rapid change during recent
years, either restoration or degradation (Jiang et al., 2006; Tong et al., 2004; Xiao-Y, 2008).
Many researchers suggested that such vegetation dynamics is jointly caused by climate
change and human activities

(Wang et al., 2006; Du et al., 2004; Sun & Mu, 2011). Climate
change plays a role on a scale of time length and space breadth, while the influence of human
activities can be regarded as a superimposing role upon it. Although there is strong evidence
that both are the main driving forces, the respective impacts of the two kinds of factors
should be evaluated in detail to help resolve the uncertainty over which the primary
contributor is and how much each factor contributes to the restoration or degradation process
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of grassland. Some studies make analysis of human-induced factor in vegetation dynamics by
using rainfall use efficiency method (RUE, the ratio of annual net primary production to
annual rainfall), but RUE is an oversimplified empirical indicator, and its application is not
much reliable. Other studies make the investigation into vegetation dynamics and its cause of
formation by using the general vegetation model (e.g., CASA, LPJ-DGVM) to obtain the
potential vegetation parameters (e.g., net primary production NPP, leaf area index LAI)
determined by climate conditions and contrast them with the actual parameters (Tong et al.,
2004). Yet the general vegetation model has great uncertainness and it needs quite intricate
parameters, hence the applying of this kind of method is at present restricted within narrow
limits. The third kind of study infers the relative role of the two main driving factors in
vegetation dynamic process through establishing a localized statistical model of vegetation
climate relationship (Li, 2008) . Relatively speaking, it is a simple and effective method
which has been favored by multitudinous scholars in recent years. In the existing studies, the
localized statistical vegetationclimate relationship model usually builds up a temporal
relation model in accordance with each pixel, one of its evident deficiency is that the effect of
climate and human-induced factors can easily be confused when they possess the same
temporal tendency. The vegetationclimate spatial relationship model is comparatively
common in desertification appraisal (Sun & Mu, 2011; Du et al., 2004). Nevertheless, it is
seldom used for dynamics analysis because of its inherent static mold. It is thus clear that the
comprehensive utilization of spatiotemporal characteristics is an important avenue to
enhancing the effect to discriminate with the localized vegetationclimate relationship model
the relative role of the two main driving factors in desertification.
Using Inner Mongolia (IM) as a case study, we used MODIS NDVI data to estimate the
vegetation coverage for assessing the current status of grassland, and calculated the changing
trend of vegetation coverage from 2001 to 2010 to judge whether the grassland showed
restoration trend or degradation trend. Net primary productivity (NPP) was selected as an
indicator to measure the relative contributions of climate change and human activities. We
used Arc GIS 9.3 software to analyze the spatial heterogeneity of vegetation dynamics and
the contributions of the two factors by combining the biome boundaries of IM.

Study area
IM is located between 3724'~5323'N and 9712'~12604'E, and is the 3rd largest in
China. Grassland is the dominant land form in IM, comprising 58% of the total land area, and
more than 20% of China's grassland. A strong east-to-west precipitation gradient results in a
decrease in annual precipitation from more than 500mm in eastern IM to less than 100mm in
western part. With this large precipitation range, three major zonal grassland types, meadow
steppe, typical steppe and desert steppe are distributed along the northeast to southwest in IM.
Typical steppe, developed under semi-arid conditions with annual precipitation from 200 to
400 mm and annual mean temperature from 0 to 8C in the grassland biome, is the most
widely spread type (Piao et al., 2006). Meadow steppe, which is more productive than typical
steppe, is developed in areas with moist fertile soils rich in organic matter mainly in the forest
biome, with annual average precipitation ranging from 300 to 600mm and annual mean
temperature from 2 to 5C. The desert steppe found in areas with annual precipitation
between 150 and 200 mm and annual mean temperature between 5 and 10 C in the desert
biome, has the least biomass(John et al., 2008).

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Assessment of vegetation dynamics
The vegetation dynamics of grassland during 2001-2010, whether restoration or
degradation, was judged based on the changing trend of vegetation coverage, which was
calculated using Least Square Regression. We postulated that the positive value represented a
restoration trend during the study period, whereas the negative value represented a
degradation trend. The F-test was employed here to check the validity of the regression
model. The distinction of the role of climate change and human activities was then conducted
solely on the grassland where vegetation coverage changed significantly (P<0.05) during the
2001-2010 period.

Distinction of the role of climate change and human activities
NPP is the net amount of solar energy converted to chemical energy through
photosynthesis (Imhoff et al., 2004). As a fundamental ecological variable, NPP can reflect
the productivity of a plant community in its natural environment. And therefore, it can be
used to estimate the earth support ability and assessing sustainable development of earth
ecosystem (Haberl et al., 2007). Here, we detected the relative role of climate change and
human activities by comparing the changing trend of potential NPP and the residual value of
potential NPP and actual NPP (NPP
h
). Potential NPP represented the amount of NPP that
would be available in a grassland ecosystem with no human disturbance. Actual NPP stood
for the amount of NPP which actually remains in the grassland ecosystem under current
management practices. Therefore we postulated that NPP
h
was the gain or loss of NPP due to
human activities.
Cartesian coordinate system was used to describe the relative contributions of human
activities and climate change to grassland dynamics. X-axis stands for the temporal trend of
potential NPP during 2001-2010 (c), and we included it here to measure the impact of
climate change on grassland NPP. Y-axis stands for the temporal trend of NPPh during the
study period (h), and was adopted to assess the effect of human activities in NPP. Both c
and h, calculated by Least Square Regression, were divided into positive and negative
values to detect their relative contributions. When c is positive or h is negative, this meant
climate change or human activities during this period had benefited grassland restoration. On
the contrary, it meant that climate change or human activities had promoted grassland
degradation. By combining the differences between c and h, assessing method was built to
evaluate the relative contributions of climate change (Ceff) and human activities (Heff) in
grassland restoration or degradation process on a pixel scale.

Calculation of actual and potential NPP
In this study, actual NPP was estimated by using CASA (Carnegie Ames Stanford
Approach) model. CASA model is a process-based model based on estimating the light use
efficiency and appropriate to estimate NPP on a global or regional scale, whose robustness in
describing spatial and temporal NPPs patterns has been repeatedly confirmed. In the CASA
model, NPP is the product of two major driving variables which is the absorbed
photosynthetically active radiation (APAR) and light-use efficiency ( c ), namely
(2)
where x is spatial location (the pixel number), and t is time. APAR(x, t) (MJ m
-2
mon
-1
) represents the
photosynthetically active radiation absorbed by pixel x in t time while c (x, t) represents the actual light use
efficiency (g C MJ
-1
) of pixel x in t time.

( , ) ( , ) ( , ) NPP x t APAR x t x t c =
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Potential NPP was calculated by using the model with the same frame of the CASA
except for the calculation of FPAR. We calculated FPAR from vegetation and meteorological
parameters for potential NPP.
(5)
where k=0.5, and LAI (leaf area index) can be calculated as follows:
(6)

where LAI
min
and LAI
max
are maximum and minimum values of LAI and were determined by
vegetation types. fsw and fst are coefficients representing the restriction of soil water and
temperature to plant growth, which are expressed as

(7)

(8)
where W
soil
and W
max
are soil water content and the maximum soil water content (m
3
m
-3
),
calculated by Soil Water sub model of CASA. W
crit
is a constant (0.25) stands for a fractional
water content reflecting the permanent wilting point. T is the temperature of subsoil (20 cm
depth). A more detailed description of the model and vegetation parameters can be found in
ref (Xu et al., 2009).

Results
Vegetation dynamics of grassland in IM during 2001-2010
Totally, 359,823.86 km
2
of grassland in IM was restored during the 2001-2010 period,
accounting for 42.10% of the regions total grassland area. Meanwhile, 385,175.13 km
2
of
grassland exhibited a degradation trend, representing a percentage of 45.06%. Only 12.84%
of the total grassland maintained a stable status during the study period, neither restoration
nor degradation. The vegetation dynamics of grassland in various biomes showed different
characteristics. In the desert biome, the area percentage of restored grassland was higher than
that of degraded grassland (53.74% vs 31.43%). While in the grassland biome, it showed an
opposite pattern (33.52% vs 65.57%). In the forest biome, the area percentage of restored and
degraded grassland was 40.02% and 49.19%, respectively, which nearly reached equilibrium.
Relative roles of climate change and human activities in the restoration process
The restoration of grassland in IM was conducted by both climate change and human
activities, while it showed definite spatial differences. In total, the area of restored grassland
completely induced by human activities accounted for 62.20% of the total restored regions,
while that completely induced by climate change only accounted for 13.16%. Meanwhile,
22.03% of the total restored area were the consequence of the combinative operation of the
two driving factors. As to various biomes, the area percentages of restored grassland induced
by human activities exhibited a decreasing trend from the desert biome to the grassland and
forest biome, whereas that induced by climate change and combinative operation exhibited an
increasing trend in the corresponding biomes.

Relative roles of climate change and human activities in the degradation process
Besides restoration, climate change and human activities also caused grassland
degradation in IM. In total, the area of degraded grassland completely induced by climate
change accounted for 47.44% of the total restored regions, while that completely induced by
human activities only accounted for 15.01%. Additionally, 34.25% of the total restored area
were the consequence of the combinative operation of the two driving factors. In the desert
and forest biome, the degraded grassland completely caused by climate change accounted for
74.95% and 40.93% of the subregions area, respectively, being the largest proportion. In
1
kLAI
FPAR e
=
( ) min max min LAI LAI fsw fst LAI LAI = +
max /
min 1, max 0,
soil
crit
W W
fsw
W
| | | |
=
| |
\ . \ .
( )
( ) ( )
2
min 1, max 0,1 0.0016 298 fst T =
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grassland biome, grassland degradation was primarily induced by the combined operation of
climate change and human activities, with the area proportion of 56.20%.
The contribution rates of the two driving forces to grassland degradation were shown in
table 2. Totally, climate change nearly played a coequal role with human activities in the
degradation process, contributing 40.50% and 55.69%, respectively. In the desert biome,
climate change acted as the dominant factor in the degradation process. In the grassland
biome, the influence of human activities on degradation was larger, comparatively. In the
forest biome, the contributions of the two driving forces were nearly equivalent.

Conclusions
The mean vegetation coverage of the total grassland area in IM was 0.37 in 2010.
During 2001-2010, 42.10% of the regions total grassland areas were restored, while 45.06%
exhibited a degradation trend. Human activities, acted as the dominant factor, was
responsible for 78.54% of the restoration process, while climate change was only responsible
for 19.05%. However, climate change and human activities were of equal importance in the
degradation process, contributing 40.50% and 55.69%, respectively. Increasing temperature
and precipitation in northeast IM may benefit grassland restoration, while decreasing
temperature in mid-west IM may cause grassland degradation. The rational human activities
due to the implementation of ecological projects indeed promoted the restoration in some
ecological fragile regions, but the increased grazing pressure might shift to the original un-
degraded or light degraded grassland, leading to new degradation.
It is worth mentioning that errors in assessment of the relative role of the two driving
factors possibly induced from neglect of land use and cover change, inaccuracy of
interpolation of climate data, or the limitation of the method itself. In further investigation,
interpolation accuracy of climate data needs to be improved, and changes of ecosystem
structure, landscape pattern and land use need to be taken into account to improve the method
and optimize the assessment.

References:
Akiyama, T. and Kawamura, K. (2007) Grassland degradation in China: methods of
monitoring, management and restoration. Grassland Science, 53, 1-17.
Du, M., Kawashima, S. and Yonemura, S., et al. (2004) Mutual influence between human
activities and climate change in the Tibetan Plateau during recent years. Global And
Planetary Change, 41, 241-249.
Haberl, H., Erb, K. H. and Krausmann, F., et al. (2007) Quantifying and mapping the human
appropriation of net primary production in earth's terrestrial ecosystems. Proceedings of
the National Academy of Sciences, 104, 12942-12947.
Imhoff, M. L., Bounoua, L. and Defries, R., et al. (2004) The consequences of urban land
transformation on net primary productivity in the United States. Remote Sensing Of
Environment, 89, 434-443.
Jiang, G., Han, X. and Wu, J. (2006) Restoration and management of the Inner Mongolia
grassland require a sustainable strategy. AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment,
35, 269-270.
John, R., Chen, J. and Lu, N., et al. (2008) Predicting plant diversity based on remote sensing
products in the semi-arid region of Inner Mongolia. Remote Sensing Of Environment, 112,
2018-2032.
Li, X. (2008) A green fervor sweeps the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Science, 633-635.
Nan, Z. (2005) The grassland farming system and sustainable agricultural development in
China. Grassland Science, 51, 15-19.
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Piao, S., Mohammat, A. and Fang, J., et al. (2006) NDVI-based increase in growth of
temperate grasslands and its responses to climate changes in China. Global
Environmental Change, 16, 340-348.
Sun, G. and Mu, M. (2011) Nonlinearly combined impacts of initial perturbation from human
activities and parameter perturbation from climate change on the grassland ecosystem.
Nonlinear Processes In Geophysics, 18, 883-893.
Tong, C., Wu, J. and Yong, S., et al. (2004) A landscape-scale assessment of steppe
degradation in the Xilin River Basin, Inner Mongolia, China. Journal Of Arid
Environments, 59, 133-149.
Wang, S., Wilkes, A. and Zhang, Z., et al. (2011) Management and land use change effects
on soil carbon in northern China's grasslands: a synthesis. Agriculture, Ecosystems &
Environment, 142, 329-340.
Wang, X., Chen, F. and Dong, Z. (2006) The relative role of climatic and human factors in
desertification in semiarid China. Global environmental change, 16, 48-57.
Xu, D., Kang, X. and Liu, Z., et al. (2009) Assessing the relative role of climate change and
human activities in sandy desertification of Ordos region, China. Science in China Series
D: Earth Sciences, 52, 855-868.
Zhao, Y., He, C. and Zhang, Q. (2012) Monitoring vegetation dynamics by coupling linear
trend analysis with change vector analysis: a case study in the Xilingol steppe in northern
China. International Journal Of Remote Sensing, 33, 287-308.
Zheng, Y., Xie, Z. and Jiang, L., et al. (2006b) Model simulation and comparison of the
ecological characteristics of three degraded grassland types in China. Belgian Journal Of
Botany, 138, 109-118.
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REMOTE SENSING OF AEROSOL CHARACTERISTICS OVER EAST
ASIA

GERELMAA, D.
1
, G. R. LIU
1,2
, T. H. LIN
2
, and T .H. KUO
2

1
Graduate Institute of Atmospheric Physics, National Central University, Chung-Li-32001, Taiwan
2
Center of Space science and Remote Sensing Research, National Central University, Chung-Li-32001, Taiwan

Keywords: Aerosol; MODIS; East-Asia
Abstract
East Asia is considered as major source of dust particles and pollution that travel to other Asian
countries and also reach other continents. In this work, the aerosol characteristics over the region are
analyzed using seven years of MODIS Aqua and Terra aerosol products. The Angstrom Exponent
values as well as the meteorological parameters from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data used to understand
the seasonal behavior as well as the yearly trends of the aerosols and the results are discussed with
regards to the regional climate. Further, the study is used to identify the major aerosol source locations
over East Asia in different seasons and the long-term trends of aerosol characteristics over the locations.

Introduction
Aerosols affect the short wave radiation reaching the ground through scattering and
absorption, and modify the cloud properties, and thus play a significant role in the Earth's
climate system. However, the composition, type, shape, and size of the aerosol particles vary
from place to place and also changes with season. Further, the particles could be transported
to far away regions from their source locations. Thus, to understand the source, and
distribution of aerosols satellite observations such as by moderate resolution imaging
spectroradiometer (MODIS), as well as ground based network chains like aerosol robotic
network (AERONET) are important. Such studies conducted in the past have shown that East
Asian region is a major source of dust and pollution, and the emission often is transported to
very large distances. In this regard, a detailed analysis is being carried out to study the
seasonal and long-term behavior of aerosol particles over selected cities of East Asia, such as
Beijing, Osaka, Gosan, Taipei, Mukdahan, and Bac-Giang. Note that this is the first detailed
attempt to understand the characteristics of aerosols over Mukdahan (Thailand) and Bac-
Giang (Vietnam). The seasonal behavior of the observed aerosols is discussed and the
observed trends during 2002-2008 are presented.

Data and Analysis
The MODIS aerosol products are from Aqua and Terra satellites during the period
2002-2008 are used for the analysis. The level 2.0 aerosol optical thickness (AOT) data are
available in 10 km x 10 km spatial resolution on daily basis. In addition, Angstrom Exponent
(AE) data is also extracted to understand the particle size information. The daily mean values
within a grid of 25km over the selected stations are estimated. The results are then used
obtain monthly mean values for each year over each station. The observed AOT values are
also compared with that obtained from concurrent ground measurements by AERONET. In
order to explain the seasonal characteristics, the observed particle type, size, and transport,
corresponding meteorological parameters from National Centers for Environment Prediction /
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data are also used.

Result and Discussion
The daily mean variation shows that the AOT values are greatest over Beijing over all
the years, with some of the values apparently greater than 2.0. Bac-Giang also shows large
AOT values. Over other stations the AOT values are below 1.5. The results further
observations show that over Taipei and Gosan, AOT values are the smallest of all the stations
and remain mostly below 1.0, in all the years. Further, each station reveals a seasonal pattern
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in the AOT variation. To further understand the seasonal characteristics, the monthly mean
variation during the year 2002-2008 is analyzed and the results are shown in Figure 1. The
figure shows MODIS AOT, the AE values as well as the monthly mean values of the
meteorological parameters from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The AERONET AOT values
are also given for comparison.
The monthly pattern as well as the magnitude of AOT variation is different for
different stations. Mukdahan and Bac-Giang have similar variation of AOT, with peaks in
March (spring) and September-October (autumn), and smaller values in summer and winter
months. The AE values also exhibit similar variation over these stations, with larger AE in
spring and autumn and smaller values in summer and winter. The monthly mean pattern over
Beijing mainly shows a single AOT peak in June, with maximum value of 1.230.20, and
relatively larger values (>0.5) during April to September. The AE values are about 0.6-0.7 in
the months of October-April, and there is a gradual increase from May, reaching a peak value
of about 1.2-1.3 in August, and decreasing thereafter. The AOT pattern over Taipei is more-
or-less similar to that over Mukdahan, with a peak in spring (0.500.10), and a less
pronounced peak in autumn (0.290.15). However, the AE do not show significant variation,
with the value at about 1.4-1.6 in all the months. Osaka and Gosan have similar inter-annual
variation of AOT, both showing a single peak in the month of June. The AOT over Osaka is
slightly more than that over Gosan. The AE variation over the two stations is also similar.

Summary
Maximum aerosol loading occurs over most of the stations during spring season,
except over Beijing where AOT peaks in the summer months. The relatively larger AE values
over Mukadahan and Bac-Giang in the spring and autumn months indicate the presence of
smaller aerosol particles, suggesting that smoke and pollution due to bio-mass burning could
be the major source. Over Beijing probably dust particles dominate in the spring season,
while industrial pollution and smoke seems to contribute in the summer season. These
particles could be transported to Osaka and Gosan in the corresponding seasons and give rise
to the aerosol loading over these stations. In summer months, most stations show AOT
decrease and AE increase, suggesting washout of larger particles. However, Mukdahan and
Bac-Giang show both AOT and AE decreasing, probably caused by hygroscopic growth with
the increase in moisture content.

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Figure 1 Monthly mean value of AOT, AE over each station during 2002-2008. Also shown are the
corresponding values of temperature, humidity, precipitation, and soil moisture from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis
data.
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ESTIMATION OF AIR POLLUTION PM10 AND PM2.5
BY USING GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM IN
ULAANBAATAR CITY

Oyudari.V
1
Tsolmon.R
2

1
Researcher, NUM-ITC-UNESCO Space Science and Remote Sensing International Laboratory, National
University of Mongolia, NUM building 1, Room 401,
Sukhbaatar district, Mongolia; Tel: 976-88055225; E-mail: mishka.vladimir@gmail.com
2
Professor, NUM-ITC-UNESCO Space Science and Remote Sensing International Laboratory , National
University of Mongolia, NUM building 1, Room 401, Sukhbaatar district, Mongolia; Tel: 976-94992163; E-
mail: tsolmon@num.edu.mn

KEYWORDS: PM10 and PM2.5 data, temperature, correlation, mapping characterization, Interpolation,
Ulaanbaatar city

ABSTRACT
The objective ofthis research is to characterize and to map PM10 and PM2.5 air quality in Ulaanbaatar
city using the ground stations air quality data and Geographic Information System. Air pollution in
Ulaanbaatar city in the form of Particulate Matter is very important to study air quality, which impact
will strongly influence the environment air pollution and human health today. Ulaanbaatar is the capital
city of Mongolia where air pollution is one of the most severe environmental problems. These sort of
human impacts of particulate matter in UB are unacceptable and I think most people would already
agree without hesitation that air pollution is a big problem in UB. The critical component of improving
the air quality is requires a long term, well-funded air quality monitoring network that can help
measure how effective these methods are. Through better public awareness about air pollution issues in
UB, we can improve Ulaanbaatars air quality monitoring infrastructure. The objective of this research
is to map the air quality value and relationship between PM 10 and PM2.5. In 2011 the values from
PM10 and PM2.5 were compared with in the winter season and summer seasons. Air quality of data
from 6 stations PM10 data in 2012 were analyzed with ASTER DEM satellite data in this research
from 2011. All output maps have been interpolated using the IDW function in the Geographic
Information System from 2010 to 2012. We are also calculated correlation between PM10 and PM2.5
in 2011.

Introduction
Air pollution is a serious problem in Ulaanbaatar city, especially in winter.
Concentrations of certain types of particulate matter PM10 and PM2.5 regularly exceed from
standard guideline recommended maximum levels by more than a dozen times. During the
winter months, smoke regularly obscures vision and can even lead to problems with air traffic
at the local airport. An environmental consequence of the increased energy demands of the
growing population and the city inherent Ulaanbaatar has some of the highest concentrations
of PM measured. Sources of the pollution are mainly the simple stoves used for heating and
cooking in the city's but also the local power plants (fueled by coal).To solve air pollution,
there needs to be a continuous cycle of applying air pollution mitigation methods, monitoring
to evaluate their effectiveness, and modifying those methods accordingly. Through better
public awareness about air pollution issues in UB, we can improve Ulaanbaatars air quality
monitoring. We need to obtain more detailed PM data and air pollution forecasts during the
next few years.
Objectives
The objective of this research is mapping air pollution using ground station PM10, PM2.5
data and satellite data. Objectives of the research work:
1. Determination of air pollution using ground based PM10, PM2.5and satellite data.
2. Calculate correlation between (PM) data and monthly temperature (C) data over
Ulaanbaatar city.
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Interpolation mapping using PM ground based data and IDW function (Inverse distance
weighted) in Geographic Information System.

Study area
The study area is located in central region of
Ulaanbaatar from the sea level of 1.351 m high.
Central location of Ulaanbaatar city has a high
density of industry, transport related, infrastructure
and population. Study areas theritory total size
4,704.4 km
2
(Figure 1 ).

Figure1. Study area (Ulaanbaatar city)
/47.52-48.00N,106.40-107.10E/
Methodology
Data used:
- Air pollution data from 2010 to 2012 was obtained from the National Agency of
Metrology and Environmental Monitoring center. (National Air quality agency) PM
monitoring.
- National Agency of Metrology and Environmental Monitoring center. (National Air
quality agency) Monthly average temperature data from 2010 to 2012.
- ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer)
satellite, DEM (Digital Elevation Modal) data /60m resolution/
- Interpolation method using Geographic Information System
To determine the air pollution PM10 and PM2.5 map used the Interpolation (IDW) method
using Geographic Information System. The Interpolation method is used to indicate the
concentration of PM10 and PM2.5 in order to determine polluted areas of Ulaanbaatar city.

Interpolation function:
=
=
/
=

PM concentration value
= 0..N PM10 and PM2.5 number of stations
di- distance from known points to the unknown x point
N- Known points from interpolated PM10 and PM 2.5 average value
- I dimension of known points

PM10 and PM 2.5 particulate matter is one of the most important determinants of air
pollution. Therefore, I selected to apply ground based measurements of PM10, PM2.5
particulate matter data. Figure 3 shows that PM 10 data in Ulaanbaatar city from 2010 to
2012. There was found in UB5 (Sukhbaatar district) that air pollution in 2012 then
2000g/m
3
higher then from last two years. (Figure 2)
PM10 values in January averaged 1000g/m
3
and in June the PM10 concentration
was over 200g/m
3
values. From this result, we can see that air pollution growth in winter
and in summer PM10 concentration shows less than January (figure 3).
World Bank Report on Air Quality Monitoring. World Health Organization Guidelines, We
took monthly averages of PM10 value by districts during the coldest and warmest period
(January and June)were concentration of PM10 was compared. According to this (figure 4) in
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Figure 9. PM10 Interpolation map
2010, January

was found that during the winter time PM10 had a higher value in UB5 Sukhbaatar district
while in summer time PM10 value in UB7 Bayangol district had a higher then other districts.
Result and analysis

Relationship between temperature and PM10,
PM2.5 in 2011 is determined as PM10 is
r
2
=0.8057 (Figure 6). Thus, when I compare
PM2.5, it is determined as r
2
=0.7628 (Figure
7, 8). Concentration of air pollution PM10
and PM 2.5 between temperature data defines
very high correlation with 89%, 87% from
January to December in the 2011.

Figure 4. Air quality analyze in Ulaanbaatar city
(2011)

Figure 6, Figure 7. Variation in average monthly concentration of Relationship between temperature and PM 10
and PM2.5 (UB4 Bayanzurkh district 2011)

Figure 2. Comparisan of stations PM10
concentartions by districts (2010,2011,2012
January)

Figure 3.Comparison of monthly PM 10
concentration
Figure 8. Relationships between PM10 and PM2.5

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98

Figure10. Interpolation map PM10, January Figure11. Interpolation map PM10, June

Results and conclusions

- The result of this research from 2010 air quality standard in Ulaanbaatar city is that PM 10
and PM 2.5 has increased every year.
- We can conduct surveys of air pollution PM 10 and PM2.5 to map the whole of Mongolia by
using ground based PM10 and PM2.5 data and satellite data for many years.
- We have observed that climate is influenced by the concentration of PM 10 and PM2.5 is very
high.
- It is timely and economically important to use remote sensing and Geographic Information
system technologies for surveying air pollution for air quality monitoring.

References
1. . (1998, 2009) ,

2. . (1992, 2004),

3. An assessment of air pollution and its attributable mortalityin Ulaanbaatar, MongoliaRyan W.
Allen & Enkhjargal Gombojav & Baldorj Barkhasragchaa &Tsogtbaatar Byambaa & Oyuntogos
Lkhasuren & Ofer Amram & Tim K. Takaro &Craig R. Janes 20 July, 2011
4. Improving Air quality to reduce Health Impacts /December 2011 World Bank report
5. 2009
6. 2000
7. Improving Air quality to reduce Health Impacts /December 2011 World Bank report
8. Philip, G. M., and D. F. Watson. "A Precise Method for Determining Contoured Surfaces."
Australian Petroleum Exploration Association Journal 22: 205212. 1982.
9. Watson, D. F., and G. M. Philip. "A Refinement of Inverse Distance Weighted Interpolation."
Geoprocessing 2:315327. 1985
10. http://www.epa.gov/pm/basic.html
11. http://www.epa.gov/ncer/science/pm/
12. http://www.airinfonow.org/html/ed_particulate.html
13. http://www.epa.gov/airquality/particlepollution/index.html
14. https://www.facebook.com/UBAirQuality
15. http://ubairpollution.org/wiki/index.php?title=UB_Air_Pollution_Wiki#Picture_Gallery

The 6
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99

Practicing Adaptation and Community Based Economic
I nnovation
THE IMPROVEMENT OF THE RURAL LIVELIHOODS USING
LOCAL RESOURCES AND GREEN GOVERNANCE SYSTEM IN
CASE OF BIGER SUM, MONGOLIA
1
B.Suvdantsetseg,
2
R.Tsolmon,
3
A.Oba and
4
Wanglin.Y
1,2
NUM-ITC-UNESCO RS and GIS laboratory, School of Physics and Electronics, National University of
Mongolia, room 401, NUM building, Ulaanbaatar 46-A, Mongolia
Tel: + 976-11-329993, E-mail: suvd16@yahoo.com
3,4
EcoGIS lab, Keio University, SFC, Z203, Endo 5322, Fujisawa, Kanagawa, JAPAN 252-0882
Tel 0466-49-2227 Fax 0466-49-2228 Email: perry@sfc.keio.ac.jp

Abstract
Under combined pressure of climate change and intense human use of natural resources, the natural
environment and human lifestyle of Mongolia has rapidly changed. While climate change is requiring
great challenges and adaptive solutions on the all spheres of human environment, and development of
policy strategies for the local to national level to strengthening resilience on its impacts and
implications. This research has two aims. The first aim is to investigate the adaptation opportunities
and best solutions based on the most problematic local issues and effective risks. The second aim is do
actions in practically for the real serious local sites to reduce the risks of climate change especially to
provide zud or drought preventing system that is kind of early warning system based on scientific study.
Therefore, if scientists and governments can provide good early warning system of Zud for herding
communities that they will help to do some actions on the livestock herding management as like selling
out animals, killing and store a meat production, keeping grasses and forages and move to high pasture
capacity areas which are kind of adaptation solutions. In this case, the early warning system will based
on the visualizing system of assessing vulnerability and impact assessment models in sum scale and
then information transformed by mobile and TV systems at least 2 weeks before as possible as one
month before. To implement this practical adaptation challenges, we are using Community Based
Participatory Approach which combined with governors for pasture herding system that ideas come
from local herders while we did the observation field work and workshop in 18 to 28 September, 2012.
Now we are doing risk assessment and Zud preventing models that including selection of indicators,
data collections, modeling.

Background and Significance
Central and west Asian countries are occurring in intensified land degradation on dry lands
derived by both climate change and increasing pressure of human activity (Jia, G., C. Fu, et al,
2011). A Mongolia is one of the most risky countries under the impact of global climate
change and extreme climatic events of drought and zud on its economy and natural
ecosystems. Because of economic sources are depends on climate events that how affect their
livestock, agriculture and other natural resources their life quality is critically changed. For
example, once drought occurs in summer and then zud will occurs in winter. Through they
will lose the livestocks and then economics becomes seriously that leading unemployment
and poverty. In this case, it is difficult to find job around living region therefore they have to
leave the area for mining and urban. The scientific understanding of past climate change
impact on grassland ecosystems of livestock sector and assessment of their vulnerability were
studied by many scholars.
We found main four reasons for this study. The first reason is that the herding system is
individual job and independent from governors because when Zud occurs in their region
government do not help to herding their animals, do not give free grass and fodder, and do
not send human help supporters. The second is Zud or Drought is natural disaster that is also
independent from governors. The third one is every sum or local levels have different risk
The 6
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100

level and different problem that it is difficult to implement one policy from national level.
The fourth is to be constant the livestocks number in some limited amount is impossible
because of livestock and its product prices are not expensive but our useful goods price is
becoming very expensive day by day. In these cases, herders said that good individual
herding management, good policy for marketing system, human support system and good
Zud preventing system including more frequent, correct weather information and pasture
potential information, snowing, and zud duration period by local as much as possible by
narrow location size are very important.
On the other hand, they especially mentioned that any policies are not essential for herders. If
Mongolian government can control the goods prices we do not want to increase livestock
animals. Because of small numbers of livestock are not enough for their daily livelihood even
goods price become expensive. The other words, recent herders are over than middle age (45
years old) they do not want to take large amount of livestocks that is hard for them.
Therefore, there needed a supports to young generation of herders by social activity from
government even though as soon there will no herders.
Based on this field survey with real nomadic communities in the Gobi regions of Mongolia,
the objective of our research will focus on following three aims. The first aim is to investigate
the adaptation opportunities and best solutions based on the most problematic local issues and
effective risks. The second aim is do actions in practically for the real serious local sites to
reduce the risks of climate change especially to provide zud or drought preventing system
that is kind of early warning system based on scientific study. The third is technically to send
herders voice and suggestions to the government that is to concern the quality of life and
potentially increasing human-risk vulnerability rather than the effects of climate change.

Research methodology and Approaches
Adaptation planning involves aspects of the environmental, social, economic and human
issues that including climate change, risk assessment, human health, food security and
supply, stakeholder engagement so on. If we looking from global and national level that
should consider many aspects. However, a concerning of this study is soum level where we
mostly focused on climate change adaptations for nomadic herding communities. Therefore,
conceptually we use the two main approaches of regional climate models combined with
geospatial data analysis and participatory planning approach for adaptation implementation
and risk survey.

Participatory Approach: The participatory planning approach implies recognition of the
needs that it is not only to ensure local stakeholders get the benefits from development but
also to integrate them fully into the relevant planning and management processes. The term
participatory planning is more concerned with establishing and maintaining a suitable
balance between developments and local community restraint (Johnson, 2011). This approach
tends to emphasise the sensitivity of the natural environment to the impacts of climate change
and unapproved human resources use. To a large extent, in the context of participatory
planning approach host communities themselves determine adaptation policies. Obviously,
participation is not an aim for local communities, but a means to create opportunities to make
adaptation development matters into their hands through utilizing their potential resources
and having more information about local development issue (Johnson et al., 2001). The
approach involves the proactive encouragement of local participation not only by local
residents, but also by other stakeholders such as tour organizers, businessman or product
suppliers, and various local, regional, national and international interest groups. Local
participation in the planning and adaptation can nevertheless be viewed from at least two
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101

contrasting perspectives: local participation in the decision-making process and local
involvement in implementation process.
However, local communitys participation for both decision making and implementation
process of adaptation planning has often been lacking in the past. This approach has leading
active local communities participation, in some cases even to the extent that communities
have been forcibly keep their main economic source of areas and important local beauty of
landscape or reserved parks from the unbelievable new actions in future.

Zud Prediction System and Early Warning System: The one the main scientific aim of
this study is to develop a Zud preventing system. It is kind of early warning system based on
scientific climatic models and visualization analysis in sum scale. After clarified zud
prevention information that will transformed by mobile and TV systems to the herding
communities in the sum scales at least 2 weeks before as possible as one month before. To
complete this work that selection of indicators, data collections, modelling and combined
visualization analysis are very hard. We are mainly using Remote sensing and GIS
visualization analysis, Web-based GIS tools, Open-source software, Commercial softwares,
Regional Climate Model (RCM), SimCLIM climate change scenario and observation data
management tools and questionnaire statistical analysis.
Our data management is divided into main 4 parts of pasture capacity information, weather
information (temperature, wind, and precipitation), livestock number, snowing information
each of those consist from sub indicators to calculate their vulnerability and then finally will
calculate the Zud prediction information. In order to calculate those indicators that requires
all different models and methods. The finally to combine them in one system is also
technically critical issue. Recently it is not cleared; we will do it step by step to do obtain the
objective.

Major climate change impacts and adaptation framework

Major negative impacts in Mongolia:
- Decreases volume of precipitation 7.5% in summer.
- Increases mean annual temperature 1.8
0
C during last 60 years.
- Increases frequency of Dzud extreme events in winter and Drought in summer.
- Increased risk of vector borne diseases especially in human centralized cities
- Decreases water sources of surface and underground water, and melting of permafrost
and glaciers.
- Increases rangeland degradation and lose of nomadic herdsmen.
- Increase environmental quality due to intensive pressure of mining activity.
- Increasing dust storm and soil erosion during spring and summer period.
- Increasing air pollution and urban expansion.
- Leading loss of livelihoods, and poverty
- Shortage food supply and adverse health

Who is responsible for adaptation: The identified measures would involve a range of
possible actors. Long-term concerns with respect to sustainable use of land resources are
generally the responsibility of the national government. Hence, the implementation of
adaptation measures should first be on national planning organizations. But successful
adaptation requires coordination between central and local levels of management. Adaptation
to long-term changes will especially require a combination of measures at the local level as
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102

well. Participation of national and local governments, scientists, and herders is equally
important in the implementation of any of the adaptation measures.

Local knowledge based adaptive strategies and solutions
- To lead young generations in non-urban areas to restore traditional lifestyle
- To decrease too much use of motorized transportation
- To lead ecological energy sources
- To lead a simple lifestyles of living condition
- To lead environmental friendly land use activity
- To lead important scientific based technological system for forecasting system on
current and long term extreme climate change evidence
- To support and promote local community based protection and greening activity

Most cited references
Jia, G., C. Fu, et al., Towards a sustainable Asia: environment and climate change. Springer,
2011, ISBN: 977-3-642-16671-6.
Sternberg, T., Tsolmon, R., Middleton, N., and Thomas, D., 2011. Tracking desertification on
the Mongolian steppe through NDVI and field-survey data. International Journal of Digital
Earth, 4(1), 50-64.
Suvdantsetseg. B, Fukui.H, and Oe. M, Evaluation of Ecotourism resources through
Participatory Geo-spatial approach: A case of the Biger city, Mongolia, ASEAN journal on
hospitality and tourism Vol 10 (2), pp162-176, 2012.
Tosun, C., and Jenkins, C.L., 1996. Regional planning approaches to tourism development:
the case of Turkey. Tourism Management, 17(7), 519-531.
Wassen, M.J., Runhaar, H., Barendregt, A., and Okruszko, T., 2011. Evaluating the role of
participation in modeling studies for environmental planning. Journal of Environment and
Planning B: Planning and Designing, 38, 338-358.

The 6
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103

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF PASTORAL SOCIO-
ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS TO CLIMATE CHANGE
(In the Case of Bayanhongor aimag)

M.Altanbagana
1
, T.Chuluun
2
, R.Tsolmon
3

1
Mongolian Development Institute,
2
Ministry of Nature, Environment and Green Development,
3
National
University of Mongolia
e-mail: altanbagana44@gmail.com

Keywords: Climate change, Socio-ecological systems, Rangeland ecosystem, vulnerability, threshold value of
vulnerability.

Introduction
There is an increasing need to develop and implement rational adaptation policy to
climate change in the framework of poverty reduction issuebased on vulnerability assessment
of socio-ecological system in relation to socio-economic indicatorsof Mongolia. With the
intention to meet this need I selected Bayanhongor aimag as a representative region in the
context of my dissertation. Bayanhongor aimag has multiple natural zones including forest
steppe of Hangai Mountain, steppe and gobi desert. Furthermore there is an essential need to
study rangeland socio-ecological vulnerability of the aimag in more details due to the reason
that southern part of Hangai Mountain is more vulnerable to climate and land use change.

Goal, objectives and scope
Main goal of this paper is to conduct spatial and temporal analysis on rangeland
socio-ecological vulnerability index of the sums of Bayanhongor aimag including drought-
zud index, plant biomass index, rangeland index and poverty, and interconnection of these
sub-indexes. So as to reach the main goal I proposed below 3 objectives. Whichare:
1. Vulnerability assessment of rangeland ecosystem.The following assessments were
calculated by indexes in sum level. Therein:
- Drought-zud index;
- Plant biomass index (MSAVI-satellite data);
- Rangeland use index;
- Integrated rangeland ecosystem
vulnerability index.
2. Determination of threshold value by conducting
correlation analysis between rangeland
ecosystem vulnerability and other indicators.
3. Vulnerability assessment of rangeland socio-
ecological system. This integrated assessment
consists of rangeland ecosystem vulnerability
index and rangeland social vulnerability index
including poverty and livestock number per 1
herder household.

Figure 1.Pilot study sites: Ecological zones and Sums
boundaries

#Y #Y
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#Y
N
E W
S
Ecological zone
Undur uul
Oit heer
Heer
Heeriin umnud
Tsuliin heer
Tsul
Sumiin hil
Aimgiin hil

Aimgiin tuv
#Y Sumiin tuv
River
Lake
LEGEND
Sum center
Aimag center
Aimag boundary
Sum boundary
Lake
River
High mountain
Forest steppe
Steppe
Dry Steppe
Desert steppe
Desert
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th
104

Figure 3.Correlation of rangeland ecosystem
vulnerability and livestock loss
Methodology
Rangeland ecosystem vulnerability assessment and integrated vulnerability
assessment of rangeland socio-ecological system can be estimated by using following
formula:
norm
i t
norm
i t
eco
i t
S N V
, , ,
A A =
;
soc
i t
eco
i t i t
V V V
, , ,
+ = A

Where
eco
i t
V
,
- rangeland ecosystem vulnerability index of i sum name, in t time,
norm
i t
N
,
A
- Rangeland use normalized index of i sum name, in t time,

norm
i t
S
,
A
- Drought-zud normalized index of i sum name, in t time,
i t
V
,
A
- Socio-ecological integrated vulnerability index of rangeland of i sum name, in t time,
soc
i t
V
,
- Rangeland social vulnerability index of i sum name, in t time.

Research results
1. Vulnerability assessment of pastoral ecosystem.

As seen from rangeland ecosystem vulnerability assessment (Figure2), for spatially,
Bogd, Bayangovi and Bayanlig sums of Gobi desert zone are the most vulnerable. By aimag
average, ecosystem vulnerability index (V
eco
) has increased from 0.26 to 0.29 for 1998-2011.
The highest peak values (V
eco
) were in 2001 by 0.40 and in 2009 by 0.48.
2.Rangeland ecosystem vulnerability (V
eco
) and
livestock loss (L
loss
). Rangeland ecosystem
vulnerability is becoming one of the main causes
of animal loss. Regression equation of this
correlation is the following.
L
loss
=695.7(V
eco
)
2
-499.9(V
eco
)+87.81
3. Vulnerability threshold value of Rangeland
ecosystems. V
eco
is considered as a threshold
value when L
loss
is equivalent to 5.0%as an
annual average value. V
eco
index can be
calculated by using below formula which is
derived from correlation regression equation of rangeland ecosystem vulnerability and animal
loss.

N
E W
S
Vulnerability index
< 0.21
0.22 - 0.25
0.26 - 0.29
0.30 - 0.34
0.35 <
0,40
0,48
y = 0,002x + 0,254
R = 0,011
0,00
0,10
0,20
0,30
0,40
0,50
0,60
1
9
9
8
1
9
9
9
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
1
2
0
0
2
2
0
0
3
2
0
0
4
2
0
0
5
2
0
0
6
2
0
0
7
2
0
0
8
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
0
2
0
1
1
0,24
0,23
0,33
0,00
0,10
0,20
0,30
0,40

,
Galuu
t
Bogd
Erdenetsogt
Jargalant
Gurvanbulag
Zag
Bayanbulag
Hureemaral
Buutsagaan
Bumbugur
Bayan-Ovoo
Ulziit
Baatsagaan
Jinst
Bayantsaga
an
Bayangovi
Bayanlig
Bayan-Undur
Shinejinst
Figure2.
Vulnerability
assessment of
pastoral ecosystem
.By Sums, 1998-
2011, b. 1998-2011
years, aimag
average level,
c. By ecological
zones, 1998-2011
annual average

a
y = 695.7x2 - 499.9x + 87.81
R = 0.65
-10,0
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
0,00 0,10 0,20 0,30 0,40 0,50 0,60
L
l
o
s
s
,

%
V
eco
The 6
th
105

Figure4.Sums rangeland
ecosystem vulnerability
(V
eco
) and Poverty (Pov)

695.7(V
eco
)
2
-499.9(V
eco
) +81.21=0
As seen from above the expression, threshold value of ecosystem vulnerability is
26 . 0 =
eco
threshold
V . If rangeland ecosystem vulnerability threshold value exceeds 0.26
) 26 . 0 ( >
eco
threshold
V
then animal loss is expected to increase.
4. Rangeland ecosystem vulnerability (V
eco
) and Poverty (Pov).

As seen from Figure 4, section a is considered with high poverty rate (Pov),
sectionb considered with high rate of poverty (Pov) and ecosystem vulnerability (V
eco
),
section c considered with higher index of ecosystem vulnerability, and section d
considered with lower indexes of Pov and V
eco
, which can be attributed as more or less
sustainable region, and sums in section b are most vulnerable area.

5. Vulnerability assessment of rangeland socio-ecological system (V).
Rangeland social vulnerability assessment was
estimated based on 2 indicators, namely poverty
rate (Pov) and livestock number per 1 herder
household (GDP per.capita). Finally, the integrated
vulnerability index of rangeland socio-ecological
system (V) of the sums can be obtained based on
the rangeland social (V
soc
) and ecosystem
vulnerabilities (V
eco
) (Figure 5).
According to vulnerability assessment of
rangeland socio-ecological system, Baatsagaan,
Bogd, Bayanlig and Bayangovi sums in desert
steppe and desert zone are the most vulnerable
areas, and Jinst and Bayan-Undur sums in desert
steppe zone and Erdenezogt sum in forest steppe
are the more or less vulnerable regions. Contrary to
that, vulnerability of Jargalant, Bayanbulag,
Gurvanbulag sums in forest steppe and Hureemaral
sum in steppe zone are considered less vulnerable.

Galuut
Bayanbulag
Gurvanbulag
Zag
Jargalant
Erdenetsogt
Hureemaral
Bayan-Undur
Buutsagaan
Bumbugur
Ulziit
Jinst
Bogd
Bayanlig
Bayangovi
Shinejist
Bayan-Undur
Bayantsagaan
Baatsagaan
38,00
39,00
40,00
41,00
42,00
43,00
44,00
45,00
46,00
47,00
0,15 0,20 0,25 0,30 0,35 0,40 0,45
P
o
v
,

2
0
0
0
,

2
0
1
0

,

%
Veco, 1998-2011
V
eco
threshold
line
Poverty average
line
a
b
c
d
N
E W
S
Vulnerability of Rangeland
social-ecolgical systems
< 0.39
0.40 - 0.69
0.70 - 0.89
0.90 - 1.19
1.20 <
Galuut
Bogd
Erdenetsogt
Jargalant
Gurvanbulag
Zag
Bayanbulag
Hureemaral
Buutsagaan
Bumbugur
Bayan-Ovoo
Ulziit
Baatsagaan
Jinst
Bayantsagaan
Bayangovi
Bayanlig
Bayan-Undur
Shinejinst
Figure5.Vulnerability
assessment of rangeland socio-
ecological system
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th
106

Conclusion
For rangeland social-ecological system, drought is becoming as an underpinning
factor, and drought-zud is playing as a driving factor, plant biomass considered as an
accompanying factor, and rangeland use is acting as a deteriorating factor. Underpinning
and driving factors are encountered in current situation of climate change, therefore it is
essential to reduce overall systematic vulnerability by lessening deteriorating factor and
improving adaptation capability of the region.

Literature
1. Adger, W.N., 2006. Vulnerability. Journal of Global EnvironmentalChange 16 (3), pp.
268281.
2. Chuluun, ., Altanbagana, ., Tserenchunt, B. 2010. Report for the APN. Project title
Dryland Development Paradigm Application for the Most Vulnerable to Climate and
Land Use Change of Pastoral Systems in the Southern Khangai Mountains of Mongolia.
Ulaanbaatar. Dryland Sustainability Institute. pp. 24-25.
3. Chuluun, T. and M. Altanbagana. 2005. Vulnerability assessment of the Mongolian
rangelands to climate and land use changes. The 6
th
open meeting of the international
human dimensions meeting of global environmental change on Global environmental
change, globalization and international security: new challenges for the 21
st
century,
Bonn, Germany, Conference book, 330-331.
4. Glaser, M., Krause, G., Ratter, B., and Welp, M. (2008) Human-Nature-Interaction in the
Anthropocene.Potential of Social-Ecological Systems Analysis. [Website], Available
from: <http://www.dg-humanoekologie.de/pdf/DGH-
Mitteilungen/GAIA200801_77_80.pdf>
5. Natsagdorj.L, Dulamsuren.J., 2001. Some Aspects of Assessment of the Dzud
Phenomena.Papers in Meteorology and Hydrology.23/3. pp. 3-18. Ulaanbaatar.
6. Reynolds, J.F., Stafford-Smith, M., Lambin, E.F., Turner, B.L. et al. 2007. Global
Desertification: Building a Science for Dryland Development. Science 316: 847851.

The 6
th
107

THE APPLICATION OF GEOINFORMATION FOR EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT AND HAZARD

CPT. D.Sodnomragchaa
1
Ts.Naranbolor
2
,

Justin D Pummil
3
Disaster Research Institute under NEMA of Mongolia
1,2
US Army corps of Engineers
4
E-mail: Sodnomragchaa@msn.com

Keywords: remote sensing, geographic information system, erdas, arcgis, alos palsar, lulc-land use land cover,
aster and landsat data

Abstract
Mongolia is an ancient nation with nomadic origin. It has an area of 1.565 million square km, and
is located between Russia and China. Mongolian total population is approximately 3 million.
There are 22 main administrative divisions in Mongolia (Ulaanbaatar city region and the 21
provinces). The Provinces are subdivided into Soums and Bags. Ulaanbaatar city is divided by
Districts and Sub-Districts.
Ulaanbaatar is the capital city of Mongolia and has close to 1.5 million registered population in
Jan 2012 and 470 thousand hectares of territory. The city administrative units include 9 districts,
which are subdivided into sub-district. Two districts are located outside of the city boundary.
Ulaanbaatar has more than 60 percent of the countrys population.
UB city can have human made disaster and natural disaster. The most common natural disaster is
flooding and most common human made disaster is fire. There is also threat of earthquakes, chemical
and radiation accident.
Due to climate warming the temperature in Ulaanbaatar has risen 2.4
o
C which is 30% higher than the
national average. Forest areas around the city have decreased significantly since the early 1990s. This
has degraded the soils leading to increased flooding and related damages.
The aim of this work is to map the disaster areas of UB city including population, building damage and
area etc,. The source of the information for the maps has included time series data derived from SAR
data and GIS layers (LULC, Canal, Road, Bridge) derived from high resolution Worldview image,
ALOS PALSAR and disaster information table from NEMA, Software to be used including ERDAS,
ArcGIS and Google hybrid map downloader.

Introduction
Ulaanbaatar is capital of Mongolia. Latest capital city is very developing and
sprawling because people are moving to the city for them life. It is essential to understand
urban development to avoid environmental problems due to urban sprawl. Therefore people
are unplanned for privatized areas /fence and house/ during UB city is growing. They can
stay and live everywhere and probably to damage areas. Floods are the most frequent natural
hazard that occurs in Ulaanbaatar city. The my work will help the design, piloting and
establishing of a model of people-centred, state-of-the-art and fully functional early warning
system for Ulaanbaatar city that would reduce and manage emergency risks of losses in lives
and in the economic, social, and environmental assets, based on good governance and the
participation of resilient communities.
Although Mongolia has abundant natural lands and a traditional nomadic culture, its
population is mainly concentrated in Ulaanbaatar, the capital of Mongolia, where it increased
rapidly from 0.58 million in 1992 to over 1.3 million in 2012 due to migration (National
Statistical Office of Mongolia).
Some parts of the privatized areas are called ger-areas because most of the
immigrants build gers (traditional and portable Mongolian residences) or block houses
enclosed by fences, shown in Fig.1, and these areas account for about 60% of Ulaanbaatar
citys population. Some of them live dangerous area. Although it is easy for people to build
fence on a land and acquire it, modern infrastructures, such as piped water, sanitation, proper
roads, public transportation, and heating systems, have not been improved. Ger-areas also
have negative impacts on the human and natural environment due to unplanned and
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haphazard expansion. One of matter is discompose which inadequate new higher building
area in center of Ulaanbaatar city.
Accordingly, I would like to show you where is dangerous area in UB city. How Geo-
Information is very usefully and helps to monitor urban area, ones of the aim is to detect
emergency zone for probably disaster in UB city. Also how Geo-information application is
useful for emergency management. Therefore, I did emergency zone maps of Ulaanbaatar
city including Flood risk zone, chemical risk zone, radical accident, fire risk zone and
earthquake risk using by time series data derived from SAR data and GIS layers (LULC,
Canal, Road, and Bridge) derived from high resolution Worldview image, ALOS PALSAR
and disaster information table from NEMA. Software are used the ERDAS, ArcGIS, Google
hybrid map downloader. People can see where probably dangerous area and disaster is will
be happen how many people and how much area will be affect by disaster from result of the
maps.

Rationale
Planning and management of disaster process requires data as a support to take
decision.
Remote sensing and GIS application is beginning in emergency agency.
If the data is on paper or even in computers in tabular format, it cant be as useful as
data represented on maps because this cant enable us to create various thematic
analyses ad hoc.
It is said that A Picture is worth a Thousand Words
Objective
To create emergency zone maps using conventional and remote sensing data
To create the emergency maps based on multi-temporal emergency maps integrated
with other GIS thematic layers
To create an emergency database for disaster situation and disaster research work.

Fig. 1: Ger-areas in the sprawling areas of Ulaanbaatar

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Methodology

Fig: 2. Methodology to identify the areas subject to Emergency zone creation

Geo-Information for disaster
Remote Sensing is a technology that detects and monitors the movement of natural
hazards and their parameters and disaster situation by measuring the electromagnetic waves
reflected or emitted from the related natural object. Space information derived through
remote sensing methods is divided into two types: active-radar and inactive-optic.
Remote sensing is now widely used in all sectors of Mongolia. NEMA cooperates
with many foreign and domestic organizations, which are engaged in geo-information.

Problems to Solve in Disaster Management
The occurrence, development, and impact of disasters possess spatial
characteristics The command and dispatch, disaster relief, site search in disaster rapid
response are carried out within a certain spatial extent

Where + How Geographic position, distribution, impact Measures
Currently, NEMA receives information from NOAA AVHRR and TERRA MODIS
satellites whose precision is 250-1000 meters to monitor forest and steppe fires, droughts,
dzud (heavy snow) and strong snow and dust storms, and evaluate disaster situations. Those
data are very useful for monitoring natural disaster supported from Environment information
center. Also NEMA is using WINDS satellite ground antenna for disaster situation supported
from JAXA. Fig.3
1. Google maps 2012
2. World view 2 image
3. Toposheet
GIS Layers
- Buildings
- Drainage
- River
- Fence
(LULC data)

ALOS PALSAR
SRTM DEM
Pre-Processing
High Resolution DEM
Disaster information
data
1. Chemical
2. Fire
3. Radiation
4. Flood
5. Earthquake
Process in HEC-RAS, ERDAS, ArcGIS software
Disaster emergency zone maps
Gumbels
method
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Fig.3. Forest fire detected from MODIS satellite
image
Vegetation index from MODIS satellite

Forest fire risk. The risk of forest fires is high in Mongolia during the dryer seasons of
the year. Fire risk in the Bogd Mountain forests has been analyzed using high precision 3-
dimensional 5RTM satellite imaging. (Figure 4 and 5)

Fig.4. Vegetation index of Bogd khan mountain, Ulaanbaatar (the result is classification of ASTER and Landsat
DATA)

Through spatial analysis by GIS and coding certain attributes of GIS images by their
contribution to the risk of catching fire, we have sorted the total forest areas of Bogd
Mountain into smaller segments by their risk of catching fire. The following mathematical
and statistical formula has been used in the process:

Risk of catching fire = 1 +100Vegetation
+50Slope+40Winddirection+30Altitute+20 Distance from a road+10Distance from the
nearest settlement
The above formula and its risk coefficients of 100, 50, 40, 30, 20 and 10 were devised
based on experiments conducted in the cold and dry territories of Canada. Based on this
formula, Bogd Mountain does not have a forest segment that has no or very little risk of
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forest fires. The Mountain is under high risk of forest fires because it is surrounded by human
settlements and is under the constant influence of human activities. Therefore, forest fires in
the Bogd Mountain area tends to increase, which is related to the socio-economic
development, poverty, and density of human settlements around the mountain. The table
below shows the sizes of areas that are under different levels of risk of forest fires.
Level of risk of forest fires Area size(ha) Percentage of the area on the
satellite image
High 16 760. 6 ha 28. 17%
Medium 18 765. 69 ha 31.54%
Low 23 971. 77 ha 40. 29 %
Very low 0.00 ha 0%
Total 59 498. 06 ha 100.00%

NDVI

Slope map
Fig.5. Areas of Bogd Mountain with high risk of forest fires (areas depicted in red have high-risk.)

The table divides the territory of the Bogd Mountain into segments by the level of risk
of forest fires based on satellite information, and shows the area size of each category. High
precision data from satellites is essential in forecasting and monitoring possible disasters
through remote sensing technology. In order to take full advantage of remote sensing
technologies, the emergency management institution of Mongolia needs to introduce the
modern LIDAR system. LIDAR is a system that monitors earthquake and flood disasters that
has occurred in densely populated settlements, by monitoring the area through laser camera,
installed in hand-manipulated helicopter, which has the precision to a centimeter.

Geographic information system
Geographic information system produces both spatial and characteristically data and
information, which are used for various planning, research and analysis purposes. In the
disaster management field, geographic information systems can play an important role in
correcting and preventing from repeating of any previous mistakes and mishandlings,
strengthening disaster protection capacities, and reducing vulnerabilities and risks.
In my work I have done emergency zone by using RS and GIS data and software, it is
possible to pinpoint areas with high disaster risk, assess risks and vulnerabilities, promptly
plan search and rescue measures during disasters, manage communication and information
during disasters, and provide timely information to the decision makers and end users during
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disasters. GIS can be used not only for exchanging information on natural hazards, but also
on economic phenomena and environmental situation. Displaying and analyzing disaster hit
areas in 3-dimension through computer programs makes information easy to understand and
utilize.
Moreover, GIS is useful in predicting natural and man-made disasters, and facilitates
a certain level of preparedness by making prompt planning of prevention, response and
recovery measures possible. (Figures 7, 8, 9 and 10)
UB city can have human made disaster and natural disaster. The most common
natural disaster is flooding and most common human made disaster is fire. There is also
threat of earthquakes, chemical and radiation accident.
Flood Hazard and Its Impact
Sources for flood hazard in the Ulaanbaatar city area are rivers and streams like
Tuul, Selbe, Uliastai, Tolgoit and Bayangol, and rain and snowmelt water from a large
number of ravines originating on the surrounding mountains. As the river basins coincide
with storm water danger zone, a short time heavy rainfall wreaks flood circumstance
around the city area. There are different studies, which registered numbers of flood cases
in the city area in 1915, 1939, 1959, 1966, 1967, 1971 and 1973. For instance, in 1915
and 1939 few days continuous rain caused overflow of river Tuul. After a heavy rain in
1966 flood discharge of river Tuul was reached to 1580-1800
3
/sec and river water level
rose by 3.2 m, which damaged southern part of the city causing more than 100 deaths and
worth 300 million tugriks damages. There were rescued more 2000 people, and
evacuated more than 13000 households.
Usually clouds with heavy rain move from west and north-west of the city and cloud
developments are very intensive. Radar data showed some results like as a cloud with 5-8
m thickness at distance 20-30 km away from the city moved fast and reached 10-13 m
thickness in very short time. Last 10 years of study also shows that days with vertical
convection process in June-August were about 40 days and now they have increased up to
50 days.
Flood risk zone created in maps used information including time series data, data of
flood information table and Gumbels method processed in HEC-RAS software. Fig.6. Other
emergency risk maps done including result of disaster research work and GIS layers. Fig.7.-
fig.11

GUMBEL Method
The basic equation used in the Gumbels method is..
x
T
= + k*SDV
where,
x
T
= Value of variate with a return period T
= Mean of the variate
SDV = Standard deviation of the sample
k = Frequency factor expressed as
y
T
= Reduced variate expressed by
y
T
=
T = Return period
Yn = Reduced mean from table
Sn = Reduced standard deviation from table.

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Fig.6. Flood risk zone in Ulaanbaatar city

Chemical accident
Chemical accident risk is hazard of chemical accident, vulnerability and people affect
by chemical accident.
Matrix method to assessment of risk defined consequence, probability, hazard level
and guidepost of owe rank. [Disaster risk assessment of Ulaanbaatar city, 2010 ]

Fig.7. Chemical risk zone in Ulaanbaatar city

Earthquake risk of Ulaanbaatar city
Earthquake preliminary index document basically wrote by earthquake norm in
Canada, 2003. Acoordinly, Ulaanbaatar earthquake risk assessment produced by Canadian
preliminary earthquake risk documents. [Disaster risk assessment of Ulaanbaatar city, 2010 ]
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Fig. 8 Earthquake risk zone in Ulaanbaatar city

The radical for radical risk in Ulaanbaatar city
The risk has used method of matrix, method of explorative classic probability and
conceptual either complex method of explorative.

Fig.9. Radiation risk zone of hospital ontological

Mongolia has been 13 type of disaster included Drought, Dzud, Wind storm, Forest
fire, Earthquake etc.. Mostly happen forest fire in east, north of Mongolia. Mongolia
vegetation is divided by 4 types Forest region, orkhon-selenge region, touchwood region
and field region. Fig.10.

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Fig.10. Forest fire zoning

Forest fire 1999-2011 climatic hardship 1999-2011

Deseace 1999-2011 Human recue 1999-2011
Fig.11. Natural hazards that have occurred nationwide in 1999-2011

Precision of geographic information is vital in preventing and planning for
preparedness against small-scale disasters, hazards, and accidents that usually happen at a
single structure or construction. Therefore, it is important to create an integrated geographic
information database with scales from 1:5000 to 1:100,000 at the national level.

Conclusion
Geographic Information Systems and Remote Sensing systems need to be introduced
to and expanded at the emergency management institutions of Mongolia to improve
prevention from possible disasters, supply decision makers with accurate information during
disasters, strengthen the national disaster protection capacities, and to organize appropriate
response and recovery measures.
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Although Geographic Information System and Remote Sensing are still new
acquaintances to the emergency management system of Mongolia, the need for more and
better of them is constantly increasing. Therefore, it is necessary to train the provincial and
city level officers of the emergency management organizations in using the GIS and remote
sensing technologies, increase the number of GIS and remote sensing specialists, expand
partnership and cooperation with organizations in the field of geo-informatics, and promote
projects and programs in this field. Most important one is we need nigh resolution satellite
image, small scale vector file for analyzing and preparing maps (disaster management) for
who decide during the disaster and planning for disaster. Particularly It will help to save time,
money and workforce.
Also NEMA should have to establish a disaster geo-database and a Disaster Geo-
Database Center in this era of information and communication technologies would be a huge
stride forward in promoting the usage of the GIS and remote sensing technologies in disaster
reduction endeavors.

References
[1] Amarsaikhan D., Blotevogel H.H., Chinbat B. Study on Land Use in Industrial and Green
Production Zones of Ulaanbaatar City Using Quickbird Image. Map Asia 2008. 2008.
[2] Bruun O.,OdgaardO. Mongolia in transition. RoutledgeCurzon, 1996.
[3] Amarsaikhan, D., Ganzorig, M. and Moon, T.H., 2005. Application of multitemporal RS and
GIS data for urban change
studies. Proceedings of the Korean GIS Conference, Busan, Korea, pp. 190-215.
[4] Bumerdene, Ch. and Chinbat, B, 2003. Some problems in functional zoning and land use of
Ulaanbaatar city, Free press. Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia.
[5] Chinbat, B., 2005. On a new land use classification and zoning scheme of Ulaanbaatar,
Mongolia. Proceedings of Mongolia- Korea Conference in Urban Planning, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia.
[6] ERDAS, 1999. Field guide. 5th Ed. ERDAS, Inc. Atlanta,Georgia, USA. Gonzalez, R. C. and
Woods, R. E., 2002. Digital Image Processing. 2nd ed. Upper Saddle River, New Jersey: Prentice-
Hall.
[7]. Herro, M, Onon, N, et al., 2003. Ulaanbaatar rapid needs assessment. USAID report,
Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia.
[8]. Hofstee, F., Radnaabazar, G. and Kuffer, M., 2004. Monitoring the development of informal
settlements in Ulaanbaatar,
Mongolia. Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia.
[9]. Pohl, C., and Van Genderen, J.L., 1998. Multisensor image fusion in remote sensing:
concepts, methods and applications. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 19, pp. 823-854.
[10]. Evaluating flood damages: guidance and recommendation on principles and methods, 2007.
www.floodsite.net/
[11]. http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/homeandleisure/floods/
[12]. Regional flood methods, http://www.ncwe.org.au/arr/Website_links/1330-1400_Ball_RFM.pdf

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THE IMPROVEMENT OF THE TOURISM USING LOCAL
RESOURCES IN TAVAN BOGD MOUNTAIN, TSENGEL SOUM,
BAYAN-ULGII

Khukhuu T
1
, Enkhjargal.N
2
, Baasankhuu B
3
1
WWF, Bayan-ulgii province
1, 2
NUM-ITC-UNESCO laboratory for Space Science and Remote Sensing, National University of Mongolia

Keywords: tourism, resources, Tavan-bogd mountain

Abstract
The aimag stretches from north to south along Mongol-Altai mountain ranges. The aimag is elevated at
1,301-4,374m above the sea level, and the highest point is Altai Mountain Ranges Noyon Peak (the
highest of Mongolia) at 4,373m, the lowest point is the center of Bayannuur sum at 1,301m. The aimag
is considered to be the most ice over for having the most glaciated mountians in Mongolia. Mountain
"Altai Tavan Bogd" is located in the municipal area of Bayan-Ulgii aimag (province) in 130 km from
Ulgii town. There are many high peaks at the Mongol Altai mountain range. 5 different peaks with
altitude of more than 4120 m above sea level surround the main peak. we have a lot of local resources
in here. For instance, the culture of the Kazakh majority is strongly influenced by Islamic traditions.
The aimag is famous for the traditional hunting method using trained eagles. The animals work in a
similar way as hunting falcons do. We need to improve the tourism over in Bayan-Ulgii which as
Tavan bogd mountain.

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS AND LOCAL PEOPLE ADAPTATION
IN REAL CASE OF BIGER SOUM, GOVI-ALTAI PROVINCE

Munkh BALT
1
, Baasan SELENGE
2
and Balt MYANGANBAYAR
2
1
Deputy mayor, first bag, Biger sum, Gobi-Altai province
2
Environmental inspector of Biger sum, Gobi-Altai province
E-mail: myangaa_0622@yahoo.com

Abstract
We presented visible impacts of world climate change and some adaptation actions in the Biger sum.
During the last 3 decades our plant has been affected much for world climate change that especially
more affecting Gobi desert regions including our living area. For example, we can see very visible
differences on decreases of water supplies for human and animals, river branches, snow coverage,
vegetation types and increases of Zud and Drought frequency or very hard winter.
We found that the area and number of iced locations (small ice lakes) at the high altitude areas already
disappeared during the summer period. Due to hard climatic condition most of herders were changed
their life style and immigrated to urban areas. Therefore, now we are missing nomadic local herders
that may be disappeared soon if this hard condition continuously. Therefore, our national policy is very
important to support natural nomadic herding system. Our sum is providing some actions to increasing
herders and support local economic development.
First is to develop the cooperation between national and foreign institutions which can give us good
practice and example to adapt in climate change.
Second is to use local natural and human resources to develop local economy that could be lead the
nomadic herders and their sustainable lifestyle and to prepare young generation and leading outsiders
to own sum to increase population and local human resources.

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ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS AND EDUCATION DEVELOPMENT
IN SELENGE PROVINCE
Adiya.B, Damdinjav.D and Oyundari.B
High school of Selenge province
NUM-ITC-UNESCO Space Science and Remote Sensing laboratory,
National University of Mongolia

Abstract
Education is the core of national sustainable development. During, my 43 years working experience for
educational sectors that national traditional culture and ecological conservation education is very
important for high school students.
We would like to develop the green culture junior school program that combined with national green
governance policy. Because If we do not give the green culture and ecological knowledge for junior
level students from the under level that will not realized in the up levels.
On the other hand, we would like to support teachers knowledge sharing ability with internet based
technologies in order to deliver most necessary information and training to two groups of local citizens
pupils dropped out of school depending on the shortage of their household income and adults who
need to have knowledge and information relating to their household business.

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Nano satellite and Cansat technology
CANSAT ACTIVITY AND SPACE ENGINEERING EDUCATION
PROGRAM IN MONGOLIA

B.Suvdantsetseg, R.Tsolmon and E.Batmunkh

1,2
NUM-ITC-UNESCO RS and GIS laboratory, School of Physics and Electronics, National University of
Mongolia, room 401, NUM building, Ulaanbaatar 46-A, Mongolia
Tel: + 976-11-329993, E-mail: suvd16@yahoo.com
E-mail: trz112@num.edu.mn

KEY WORDS: Cansat, Space engineering, Nano satellites

Abstract
Mongolia was approved a long term national satellite program in November 2012. The main objective
of this program is to develop the space science and space engineering technology, to launch national
communication and remote sensing satellites in near future to use and share their data sets for national
commercial social, economic, environmental sustainable development. This program also including the
human resources development and education program on space science and space engineering at the
different levels of university students. In order to develop this education program we are starting from
Cansat (Can satellite) program because of its technology almost same as real satellite and very useful to
implement.
To develop the program we are organizing several activities such as short term Cansat training at
national level, National Cansat competition, international symposium and local meeting, and
participation for international activities. Moreover, we established basic laboratory for small satellite
development which equipped instruments, basic materials and tools that fund supported by private and
national organizations.
To develop this huge project we need more international cooperative activities on small satellite
engineering development, human resources building, and international exchange training programs and
degree programs between universities.

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HISTORY AND CURRENT STATUS OF JAPANESE CANSAT

Kentaro Nishi
1
, Hironori Sahara
2

1
Graduate Student, Space Systems Laboratory, Tokyo Metropolitan University,
6-6, Asahigaoka, Hino, Tokyo 191-0065, Japan;
Tel: +81-42-585-8624, Fax: +81-42-585-8624, Email: nishi-kentaro1@sd.tmu.ac.jp
1
Associate Professor, Space Systems Laboratory, Tokyo Metropolitan University,
Tel: +81-42-585-8624, Fax: +81-42-585-8624, Email: sahara@sd.tmu.ac.jp

KEY WORDS: CanSat, Systems Engineering, Mission, Education, Cultivation

1. History of Japanese CanSat
Indeed CanSat is a small system, but we can say it is well-similar to the real satellite
because it consists of almost the same components such as battery, transmitter, and
microcomputer and so on.
In 1998, University Space Systems Symposium (USSS) was held in Hawaii and here, Prof.
B. Twiggs at the Sanford University proposed CanSat. In 1999, two universities, the
university of Tokyo and Tokyo Institute of Technology, launched their own CanSats with
amateur solid rockets in the United States of America, as the first Japanese CanSats. From
then, the number of universities developing CanSats has been increasing, and today is about
20 Japanese universities and the more number of CanSats are launching every year.

2. Purposes to develop CanSat
A lot of Japanese universities are making efficient uses of their CanSats as an educational
tool, and simultaneously, they have mainly two purposes.
The first one is to educate those who want to master so-called systems engineering and
project management toward their developing a satellite or some other systems. For some
reasons, CanSat is the best suited tool for learning what system is how it should be
constructed. For example, a real satellite is too complicated and needs too much times, years
or decades, to apply it for the educational purpose. On the other hand, just taking the
concerned lectures on a desk is not enough and cultivates no experiences. Therefore, by
developing a CanSat, required for only several months to complete it, is the best way to learn
systems engineering. Students try hard and sometimes take bad mistakes, or argue with other
student. Through such experience, they finally master systems engineering and project
management, to be successive leaders.
The other is to demonstrate a newly-constructed system of CubeSat or parts of
microsatellites. In Japan, more than 20 universities have developed and are developing their
microsatellites or CubeSat. Before they develop their actual engineering model, they test
whole or part of microsatellite as a part of CanSat. For instance, Nihon University tested
Bread Board Model (BBM) of its satellite few years ago, and our university, Tokyo
Metropolitan University (TMU) will test a microcomputer equipment of our satellite with a
CanSat in this year. Though we have few ways for failures in space, we can find the failure or
some weak points of a satellite and improve them before its launch.
These two are the main purpose of Japanese CanSat. Even though, among them are few
CanSats being engaged in applicative uses by itself, CanSat is, as was expected, one of the
capable tools to be used for many kinds of purpose as you know.

3. Launch of Japanese CanSat
We, Japanese students, have two chances to launch our CanSats in Japan and the United
States of America. We have some CanSat events in Japan and the biggest one is Noshiro
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Space Event in Akita Prefecture. In Japan, we can legally not launch a rocket so high except a
few appropriate launch sites, one of them is Noshiro Space Event, where rockets come up to
about 300 meters high. Though this is very enough height for 350ml class CanSat launch, not
enough for Open-Class CanSat.
Because of the difficulty of launching rockets, the balloon test is more popular. Also at
Noshiro, most of CanSats are tested with balloons. Though it can come up to no more than
100 meters, the balloon test still has a lot of advantages. First, we can conduct the balloon test
even at narrow space while rocket launch needs very large site for the safety. Furthermore, a
rocket launched would be swept far away by the winds during its flight. On the other hand, in
the case of balloon test, a balloon is fixed on the ground with a set of tethers, so that it is
much safer than rockets. So, all we need is moderate space such as a playground in high
school. Second, it is easier to prepare and repeat the flights of many CanSats. Rocket needs
much preparing time for every launch. By contrast, we can conduct the balloon test in about
every 10 minutes. Third, balloon test does not need any license or permission. In Japan, only
the person who have license, very difficult to get, can launch a large rocket, and we have to
be permitted by the administrators before launch. On the other hand, we can easily conduct
the balloon test with no restriction. For these reasons, balloon test is more popular than rocket
launch in Japan.
By the way, as was expected, we would like to conduct a full-blown test of CanSat in the
sky. Thus, a lot of Japanese universities attend the launch event in the United States of
America. This event is called ARLISS, A Rocket Launch for International Student Satellite,
and it is held in Black Rock Desert, Nevada. Because the desert is broad, one of the private
rocket groups, AeroPac, in the United States of Amaerica launch their big rockets which
come up to 4,000 meters high with our CanSats. This height is enough to conduct a variety of
tests.
4. Mission Competition and Comeback Competition
In ARLISS, most of CanSat tests are conducted as a Competition. It consists of two
categories of Mission Competition and Comeback Competition.
At Mission Competition, a lot of universities contest each other with their own unique
missions, and vote in good mission as peer review. For example, one of the TMU teams
developed a CanSat possessing 6 cameras in it and aimed to take panoramic photographs
roundly, as shown in Fig. 1. And, another TMU team made a CanSat to accomplish take and
bring a raw egg from/to the ground with no break with Shock Absorber shown in Fig.2. It
consists of foamed polystyrene, gummy sheets and a certain gels. This Shock Absorber was
of success to protect the raw egg from launch acceleration, separation impulse, and landing
shock. In addition, we can see a variety of CanSats executing such unique missions as
formation flight, AI-programmed camera, sending message to the ground station, and so on.
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Fig. 1 Panoramic Photograhs token by CanSat

Fig. 2 Structure of the Shock Absorber

At Comeback Competition, all CanSats of Run-back and Fly-back types try to approach a
given goal with their own ways. Run-back type has usually two large wheels with both sides
and run even through rough ground. Fly-back type glides with their wings or parafoils.
Nowadays, Run-back type is more popular and is well tested by a lot of universities and
techniques to accomplish the specified purpose have been cultivated. The final distance to the
goal, was over 1,000 meters, and now is ZERO.

5. Conclusion
These are the history and current status of Japanese CanSats. 15 years have passed since
the first Japanese CanSat was launched, and its techniques have been highly cultivated. By
integration of these techniques, we might be able to develop the advanced CanSats which
execute more practical mission.
For example, most of CanSats have at least one sensor such as acceleration sensor,
gyroscope, pressure sensor, temperature sensor, and so on. Besides, Fly-back CanSats have
been striving to come back through any arbitrary route in the sky. These achievement and
endeavor will realize a helpful mission such as your atmosphere observation.
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6. Summary
In this paper, we introduced the history and current status of Japanese CanSat. We are
making efficient use of CanSats mainly for two purposes; one is to educate those who want to
master systems engineering and project management toward their developing a satellite or
some systems, and the other is to demonstrate a newly-constructed system of CubeSat or
parts of microsatellite.
We have two chances of CanSat launch, Noshiro Space Event in Japan and ARLISS at
Black Rock Desert in United States of America, where we join in Mission Competition and
Comeback Competition. We will see a variety of CanSats executing such unique missions as
formation flight, AI-programmed camera, or shock absorber, some of which may yield
practical applications pretty soon, in Mission Competition. On the other hand, in the
Comeback Competition, all CanSats of Run-back and Fly-back types try to approach a given
goal with their own ways.
Their techniques have been well cultivated and will help to realize a practical missions
such as your atmosphere observation.

Reference
University Space Engineering Consortium. ARLISS Report. Retrived April 29,2013,
from http://www.unisec.jp/history/arliss-e.html

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STATUS QUO AND FUTURE PLANS OF UNISEC INTERNATIONAL
ACTIVITIES

Emiko Ando, Rei Kawashima
University Space Engineering Consortium (UNISEC), Japan
ando.emiko@unisec.jp, rei@unisec.jp

University Space Engineering Consortium (UNISEC) has been dedicating to facilitating
and supporting practical space engineering activities at university level in Japan since 2002.
This presentationshall introduce UNISEC and its international activities.
In the presentation, firstly, UNISEC overview will be introduced. It was established in
2002, merging the University Satellite Consortium and the Hybrid Rocket Group, and it
obtained the status of legal entities in 2003. The three pillars of UNISEC are: 1) human
resource development, 2) technological development and 3) outreach.Currently, about 40
universities join the activities in Japan. UNISEC is a community where members help and
motivate each other. As a result of UNISECs continuous activities, 20 nano/micro satellites
made by member universities have been launched into orbit since 2003, and many new
satellites are planned to launch.
Secondly, UNISEC international programs will beintroduced. The programs include
Cansat Leader Training Program (CLTP), Mission Idea Contest (MIC), Nano-satellite
Symposium and Space Takumi Journal.

1) CLTP is a training course that participants learn whole cycle of CanSat development
from designing, manufacturing, launching to data analysis. Participants are expected to teach
their students in their countries after the course. CLTP had been organized for three times
since 2011. Figure 1 shows activities in the 3
rd
CLTP held in Tokyo Metropolitan University.
The fourth CLTP will be held in Keio University in July-August this year in Tokyo.[1]

Figure 1 Activities in the 3
rd
CLTP
2) MIC provides aerospace engineers, researchers, scientists, college students, consultants,
business persons and anybody interested in space with opportunities to present their creative
ideas and gain attention internationally. The objective of the contest is to encourage
innovative exploitation of micro/nano-satellites and to contribute to capacity building. MIC
has been organized twice since 2010 in cooperation with regional coordinators from more
than 30 regions in the world, including Mongolia. [2]

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Figure 2 Final presentation of the 2
nd
Mission Idea Contest

3) Nano-satellite Symposium provides valuable opportunities for everyone involved in
micro/nano-satellite missions to learn about the latest technological advances, applications
and relevant legal and regulatory issues as well as capacity building. The symposium has
been held for four times since 2010. The latest symposium was jointly organized with the
United Nations. The next symposium will be held in Tokyo in November 20-22, 2013.[3]

Figure 3 UN/Japan Nano-Satellite Symposium

4) UNISEC Space Takumi journal provides
a stage upon which practical space activities
can be presented in an academic realm. Those
who do research and publish journal papers
create universal value which contributes to the
development of space engineering from
individual space engineering-related
projects[4].
Figure 4UNISEC Space Takumi journal

Thirdly, future plans of UNISC international activities will be presented. Many
international participants have joined the international programs such as CLTP and MIC, and
performed very well. The next step is how to make the university space activities sustainable
in each region of the world. UNISEC has a big and ambitious dream called VISION 2020-
100, which is described as we will create a world where university students can participate
in practical space projects in more than 100 countries.There must be many different ways to
reach the goal, and each country should seek the best way for their students. We would be
happy to share our experiences and know-how with you, and also would like to suggest that
establishing a local-UNISEC would be one of effective approaches to sustain capacity
building in space science and technology. Once several local-UNISECs are established, then

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we will consider establishing a new organization temporally called UNISEC-Global which
would support local-UNISECs. [5]

Figure 5 UNISEC-Global

Finally, we would like to mention a new global project, what is called A water level
monitoring satellite network.It is currently being discussed in Japan, and we expect that this
new initiative may play as a catalyst for the practical space project based education for many
countries that have not experienced it yet.

References
[1] CLTP official website : http://cltp.info
[2] MIC official website: http://www.spacemic.net
[3] Nano Satellite Symposium website: http://www.nanosat.jp
[4] Space Takumi Journal website: http://space-takumi.unisec.jp/
[5] R.Kawashima, What We Can Do for Capacity Building in Space Science and
Technology in Africa,the 4th African Leadership Conference on Space Science and
Technology for Sustainable Development - ALC2011, Mombasa, Kenya from 26-28
September, 2011

Acknowledgments

MIC, CLTP, Nano-satellite symposium are organized as a part of New Space Development
and Utilization Paradigm by Nano-satellites Introducing Japan-oriented Reasonable Reliable
Systems (Hodoyoshi) Engineering project led by Prof. Shinichi Nakasuka of the University
of Tokyo, which is granted by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) through
the Funding Program for World-Leading Innovative R&D on Science and Technology
(FIRST Program), initiated by the Council for Science and Technology Policy (CSTP),
Cabinet Office, Japanese Government.

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USE OF SMALL UNMANNED AIRCRAFT IN ENVIRONMENTAL
MONITORING

B.Batjargal 1
1 Private researcher, PO Box 62, Kettering, Tasmania, Australia Tel: +61-488251666, E-mail:
batbilegbat@gmail.com

KEY WORDS: small unmanned air vehicle, UAV, remote sensing

Abstract
Not all remote sensing applications require or benefit from large scale, lower-resolution data from
space based platforms. Manned aerial imagery can provide higher resolution data but at increased
financial and human safety cost. Small Unmanned Air Vehicles can provide small to medium scale,
high resolution data at low cost with near non-existing risk to human life and property. This paper will
introduce various aspects of this newly emerging technology, including its advantage, disadvantage and
applications in remote sensing.

DEVELOPMENT OF A TELEMETRY CANSAT
Begzsuren Tumendemberel
1
, Margad-Erdene Jargalsaihan
1
, Amartuvshin Dagvasumberel
1
,
Munkh-Erdene Zorigbold
2
, Sukhbuyan Galch
2
, Erkhet Vanchinkhuu
2
Applied Physics department, School of Physics and Electronics NUM,
Ikh Surguuliin Gudamj 1, P.O.Box 46a/523, 210646 Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
Tel/Fax: 976-11-329993
Email: begzsuren@num.edu.mn, asaamaraa@gmail.com

Abstract
This paper presents design, electronic system and data processing of an advanced level Telemetry
CanSat whose primary purpose is to collect and transmit data from the flight and therefore weather
conditions are processed by a ground station in a real time. We used microcontroller, pressure and
temperature sensors, humidity sensor, 3-axis accelerometer, 2-axis gyro, camera, GPS, air quality
control sensor, and RF communication module to communicate with Yagi-Uda antenna and ground
station PC. Also four application programs are developed in this work for data processing and flight
control. Those are software processed GPS data analysis, 3D motion tracking with accelerometer and
gyroscope, sensor data analysis using LabView and Java. A system programming, electronic circuit
design and test results are presented in this paper.

SICT-TELECOM CANSAT

Uuganbayar Purevdorj
Mongolian University of Science Technology

Abstract
This paper gives a general introduction to the SICT-TELECOM crews (Institute of Information and
Communication Technology, Mongolian University of Science and Technology with Telecom
Mongolia Company) CanSat activities and points out some educational advantages. In addition this
paper also describes some new ideas for the Mongolian first CanSat competition. For example: Real
time camera video and other data transmission for smart phone subscribers and dedicated ground
station from sensors on the Cansat. We have used some sensors in SICT-TELECOM cansat for data
frame there are outer and inner temperature sensor of cansat, pressure sensor, humidity sensor,
accelerometer, GPS module, altitude meter without GPS, HD camera and microphone etc. One frame
length was 70 bytes and 64 bytes was data only. Also we have developed following types of
application programs. First we developed windows visual studio C # application for graphic user
interface for data processing in ground station and it has data base system. Second one was Java
application for making results on chart. Third application was Web application for ASP server. It can
transmit data to the server in real time. Last application was android application for smart phone
subscribers. They can access to the internet and then connect our SICT-Telecom cansat data server
with this application program.
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THE FIRST NATIONAL COMPETITION OF MICRO-
SATELLITE, Cansatellite of TEMUULEL

KHASHBAT. G
1
, ERDENEBAT. B
2
,

MUNKHJARGAL. G
3
, BUYAN-ULZII. G
4
, BAT-OCHIR.B
5
and
BATMUNKH.B
Mechanical Aerodynamic department, University of Science and Technology,
MUST building 7-209, Khan-Uul, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
Tel: + 976-99680865, E-mail: ghashbat@yahoo.com, erdenebat.b@hotmail.com

Abstract
As stated in Competitions Return type, to land in close range from the flight field, it is planned to
perform Return task with parachute with radius identified by optimal, after many tests. To perform
general and additional task stated in Satellites sub-system and telemeter fully created following
alternative solutions: To make satellites sub-system more complex: Built satellite which was built in
Japan and tested in international cansat competition last year, on scale of 1:1, using glass-cloth and pitch
glue. Stratospher - 1 is 15 times better than Japanese sample, structure, construction will not be affected
from storage, meets international competition standards and first in Mongolia. Based on above experience
built Stratospher- 2 has body with 80 mm diameter, which is more proper to the satellite designs
reactive force and cansats covers diameter. As for satellites telemeter, built to send air pressure,
temperature and GPS information to the ground station on time, as stated in competitions guidance.
Following additional works were done by team Temuulel for the competitions Scientific Test:
1. For satellites sub system:
- To make control system more complex, additional equipments which will be used for Return
task were tested on Stratospher- 1.
- For our satellites parachutes are designed to not to have difficulties during the final stage of
Flight, by installing parachute catapult on the newly created wall with angle of 45 degrees.
- Installed additional shock-absorber to prevent damage to microelectronic devices inside the
cansat from the high reactive pressure from beginning stage of Flight. This absorber meets
and within the standard that competition demands and installed 15 mm down from cansat
which is designed to follow the reactive force during stage one and follow the gravitational
pull.
- Started works of building satellites solid fuel in Mongolia and make standard for it, which is
first in Mongola, prepared documents and materials of method to build Sugar Fuel and
printed them for the other teams and younger generation of inventors with cooperation of
Mobicom Corp.
2. New technological test related to measurements:
- Developed improved method of shaving PCB plate for the electron system to the CNC
machinery instead of dissolving into liquid method.
- Adding to the three (3) main information that will be sent to the ground station also measured
information of percentage of moisture of the air, speed of landing, attitude, acceleration and
video will be sent to the ground. Also records of distance between cansat and station will be
measured and sent on every second.
- Designed and calculated to provide two (2) kinds of information, video and digital, due to
general form and datas in huge number.
eeprom is installed specially to send all the information when cansat separates from satellite. Also
flash light is installed to confirm its location.

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THE COSMOS TEAM

BYAMBAJAV.R
1
, KHATANBAATAR.B
2
, TUNGALAGTAMIR.B
3
, MUNKHBAATAR.C
4
, TEMUULEN
Sashka
5
and IKHBAYAR Boldbaatar
6
Computer Integrated System, Computer Science Management School MUST, 13381, Ikh toiruu, CSMS
2nd khoroo, Bayanzurkh district Mongolia
Mongolia; Tel: + 976-88307679 , Fax: +(976)-11-458151
E-mail: byambajav_r@yahoo.com

KEY WORDS: CANSAT, Camera, GPS, Sensor, Data, RF, Microcontroller, Real Time Data transmission

Abstract
CoSMoS, which second placed of The First National CanSat competition in Mongolia. Our team name
is the CoSMoS that mean CoSMoS (CSMS Computer Science of Management School). The CanSat
uses AVR microcontroller as a main processing unit, pressure and temperature sensors, 2-axis gyro,
camera, humidity sensor, flammable gas sensor, GPS and RF communication module to communicate
with the ground main station PC. CanSat general mission is atmospheric measurement. We could
transmit our sensors data in real-time mode. Special features of CoSMoS are preparing 3D graphs of
CanSat moving process beside data analysis, Drawing GPS map of motions and Airpocket of around,
explained in the following.

STUDENTS LEARN SYSTEMS ENGINEERING
BY DO-IT-THEMSELVES TRIAL AND ERROR USING CANSAT

Kenji Nakajima1, Takehiro Oohira1, Yasuo Arai1, Mitsuhiro Masuda1, Hironori Sahara2
1Graduate Student, Space Systems Laboratory, Tokyo Metropolitan University,
Tel: +81-42-585-8624, Fax: +81-42-585-8624, Email: nakajima-kenji@sd.tmu.ac.jp
2Associate Professor, Space Systems Laboratory, Tokyo Metropolitan University,
Tel: +81-42-585-8624, Fax: +81-42-585-8624, Email: sahara@sd.tmu.ac.jp

KEY WORDS: Systems Engineering, Trial and Error, CanSat

Abstract
CanSat, such as shown in Fig. 1, is surely one of the most suitable
tools for the education of systems engineering because its
development contains all of the train to realize a system such as
satellite, there consists of construction of mission, abstract of
requirement, correspondence and realization of specification,
integration to a system, demonstration, post hoc analysis, and
project management, for examples. It provides a chance for
students, to-be promising technician or project managers, to learn
and cultivate their technical sense.
Some universities in Japan started their CanSat projects around
2000, and each of them independently developed their own
CanSat. There are neither technical hoards among them nor
fulfilling implementation tools for microprocessors at that time,
so that they had trouble even in illuminating a LED by a
microprocessor. More than a decade later, we can easily find many sample codes and developing tools
for microprocessors on the Internet, universities and high schools not only in Japan but also in the
world have their CanSat projects, and many CanSat competitions are being held all over the world.
Some of them launched their CubeSat into orbit after the CanSat experiences, such as XI-IV and
CUTE-I developed by University of Tokyo and Tokyo Institute of Technology, respectively.
However, many of them repeat the same mistake in the development of CanSat. For example,
interference between clock of a microprocessor and GPS receiving is very familiar to the experienced
persons, and the interference often caused loss of control of CanSat in competitions. A team who once
experienced a failure will never repeat the same failure, but in actual two reasons disturb the team's
upskilling and will often repeat the same failure next year.
Fig. 1 Examples of CanSat,
developed by TMU
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The first reason is a lack of post hoc analysis. Even though CanSat is a small system, highly
respectable systems engineering and technical skills are required to develop a CanSat, and there should
take all necessary steps of systems engineering including post hoc analysis regardless of that whether
it attains its success level of mission or not. However, members tend to put little emphasis on post hoc
analysis, that is, lessons learned.
The second reason is a failure of handover. In schools, students develop and launch their CanSat for
their own good, and cultivate their skills there, but graduate. Then, if their hoards such as experiences
of success or failure continue in the next-generation, the probability to successfully accomplish a
mission with CanSat gets higher in the next year. Nevertheless, that tends not to be treated as a matter
in most cases.
It indicates that they miss an opportunity to learn systems engineering, which surely contributes to
nurturing of advanced technical experts, and that education for systems engineering is necessary. Thus,
our laboratory has been engaged in an educational program, Good Practice (GP) in Tokyo Metropolitan
University (TMU) since 2012, to educate systems engineering by trial and error using CanSat with the
support of the university.

Procedure to Educate Systems Engineering
Since a CanSat is small system, the required time from starting its development to post hoc
analysis including its flight test is about 3 - 6 months, so that we constructed the 6-month
education program based on GP in TMU.
First of all, we should understand a whole flow for system engineering and its representative
one is V-Curve Life Cycle Model shown in Fig. 2, where it consists of Breakdown phase and
Integration phase.
There should be what you want to do at first, and Requirements are derived from it. For
example, if you want to take a picture from CanSat, you first declare Mission Statement as
My CanSat take a picture from the sky, and a capability for taking a picture is required, and
the capability requires instrument for forming an image, receiving the image, the image data
storage, and receiving a command to take a picture. They are called Requirement, and each
Requirement corresponds to the respective Specification such as an lens, an CCD, an
memory for storage, and a communication device to receive a command to take a picture, all
of which make up a Subsystem. Each Specification corresponds to a set of the respective
components.
After the definition of subsystem, you start its Development. Around this time, you had
better hold Preliminary Design Review (PDR) to confirm whether a set of what you defined
can accomplish what you want to do.
Then, component-by-component tests in a Subsystem would be conducted, and you combine
the plural components step by step after the component-by-component tests to construct a
Subsystem, followed by a whole test of the Subsystem. After some Subsystem tests
completed, the plural Subsystems should be combined step by step. Around this time, you
had better hold Critical Design Review (CDR) to confirm whether you are constructing
what you defined. Finally, all Subsystems are combined and function in a coordinated
manner, that is, the system accomplishing what you want to do reaches completion.
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Fig. 2 V-Curve Life Cycle Model in systems engineering

Documentation Management
In progressing the flow related above, documentation serves important roles such as share of
purpose and consciousness not only among members but also between the present and future
selves, and confirmation of current state in development time axis.
The following documents are required in the Breakdown phase.
Mission Plan Document should be formed first of all, which contains Mission Statement,
definition of success criteria, and Requirements. Success criteria, defining what and how
much your system attains, usually consist of the minimum, the normal, and the advanced
success conditions, furthermore, you define how you are going to judge their attainment.
Project Management Plan Document contains action items, schedules, human resources,
communication method, budget, and design review plan such as PDR and CDR.
System Specification Document defines Specifications corresponding to one-on-one
Requirements, and Subsystems gathering the Specifications. In addition, the documents
should contain Interface Control Document (ICD) to define the respective interface with
respect to mechanical, electrical, thermal, and informational matching. ICD must be defined
perfectly at this point to avoid more tasks than enough. For example, if with ICD, a developer
can concentrate on his/her work in a Subsystem without attending to other developers'
enquiries.
The following documents are required in the Integration phase.
Test Plan Document schedules the test items of components, Subsystems, and a whole
system, it should define who does, why it is, and what, when, where, and how to do. All
results of the respective tests and judgmental standard of Go or No Go are specified in this
document. As for the tests of whole system, you have to confirm end-to-end impeccability in
all paths among Subsystems and combinations of Subsystems.
Contingency Plan proposes anomaly and correspondence against the anomaly in all phases
of development to operation, that is, this document should have revisions all the time.
Project Completion Report is the final document in a project, should be written after an
flight as shown in Fig. 3, and contains not only the flight data of mission and house-keeping
data but also post hoc analysis about all of the data. In addition, you had better record all
things you notice through the project.
When the above documents are completed, the next-generation members start out from the
goal of the present members, and technical information and know-how are transferred to the
new members.

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Summary
In this paper, we introduced a way that students
learn systems engineering by do-it-themselves trial
and error using CanSat, based on GP in TMU. As
for the first year, a teacher advises the flow with the
documents related above, and students learn what is
systems engineering, and what is system through
CanSat development and documentation. CanSat is a
small system so that students experience a variety of
failures, and the failures bring up the students to be
system engineers. From the second year, the
experienced students and the documents have a key
role as teacher. This repetitiveness will contribute to
the enhancement with respect to not only technical
points but also project management.

Fig. 3 A CanSat in actual flight
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Posters
DYNAMICS RESEARCH OF ICE COVER OF LAKE BAIKAL BASED RADAR
IMAGES

1
, Gennady I.Tatkov
2
3
,
Michael E.Bikov
4
, Tsyren A.Tubanov
5
1
D.Sc. (Engineering), deputy director, Institute of Physical Material Science of the SB RAS, 670047, Ulan-Ude,
6, Sakhyanovoy str., IPM SB RAS, Russia; Phone.: +7 (3012) 433184, e-mail: tchimit@ipms.bscnet.ru.
2
D.Sc. (Geology and mineralogy), director, Geological Institute of the SB RAS, 670047, Ulan-Ude, 6a,
Sakhyanovoy str., Russia; Phone.: (3012) 433945, e-mail: gin@gin.bscnet.ru.
3
PhD (Physics and mathematics), senior researcher, Institute of Physical Material Science of the SB RAS,
670047, Ulan-Ude, 6, Sakhyanovoy str., IPM SB RAS, Russia; Phone.: +7 (3012) 434819, e-mail:
kirbizhekova@bk.ru.
4
PhD student, Institute of Physical Material Science of the SB RAS, 670047, Ulan-Ude, 6, Sakhyanovoy str.,
IPM SB RAS, Russia; Phone.: +7 (3012) 433184, e-mail: evgomond@yahoo.com.
5
PhD (Geology and mineralogy), researcher, Geological Institute of the SB RAS, 670047, Ulan-Ude, 6a,
Sakhyanovoy str., Russia; Phone: +7 (3012) 433945, e-mail: geos@gin.bscnet.ru.

Keywords: speckle-tracking method, textural analysis, GPS-measurements.

Abstract
In the studies "seismic activity" of ice cover and its relation to the deformations on the interplate
boundaries qualitative and quantitative evaluation of the horizontal displacement of the ice cover
southern Lake Baikal on data ALOS PALSAR 2008-2011and Radarsat-2 2012-2013 by methods of
textural analysis, differential interferometry and speckle-tracking were made. In 2010-2011 geodesics
GPS subsatellite measurements of movements control points on the ice relatively fixed base station on
the bank (Listvyanka) with differential receivers Trimble R3 and HiPer Topcon been performed.
Comparison of ground-based observations with the results of satellite data also showed that the active
deformation processes occur not only at boundaries of plates ice cover lake Baikal but in its entirety,
due to intra-bloc fragmentation of ice blocks that are in complex stress state.

Introduction
Since 2006, the ice cover of Lake Baikal has become a model for the investigation of
the laws of deformation and seismic processes in the lithosphere (Dobretsov N.L. et al.,
2007). As part of the interdisciplinary research project on the ice carried out complex
experimental and theoretical studies. Including instrumental monitoring of absolute and
relative movements of the structural blocks of different ranks, deformation of the brittle
surface layer of fragments of ice cover, as well as seismic and acoustic activity are performed
(Rugich V.V. et al., 2009). The main purpose of research is the identification and statistical
analysis of the relationship mechanisms of deformation of various levels and their use to
discuss problems of geomechanics, geophysics, and tectonics.
To produce a continuous spatial pattern of deformation on the basis of local ground
observations were involved radar data UHF range ALOS PALSAR 2008-2011 and
centimeter range RADARSAT 2012-2013.
Ice cover on Lake Baikal begins to set in October-December, when the temperature
drops to-20C, significantly reduced the inflow of warm river water, stops the process of heat
transfer in the upper 300 m layer of water subsides undercurrents. Usually Baikal freezes
from north to south, from the shallow to the deep part of the lake. Initially, the rate of growth
of 3-5 cm / day, then decreased in the second half of March stops. Effect on the rate of
growth of average daily air temperature, the thickness of the ice and snow. The showdown
takes place in April and May with increasing daily average temperatures to zero and positive
values. Cracks or "temperature seams are formed chaotically in the upper "fragile" 30-40 cm
layer at the beginning of formation of ice, and then, depending on the ice situation, grow or
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"heal." But the most powerful cracks are formed in accordance with long-term observations
in about the same place and cross the lake in the transverse direction. In April, the ice loses
its strength and cracks disappear.

The dynamics of the block structure of the ice cover based on textural analysis
Structure cracks, plates and blocks of ice clearly visible on radar images (Haralick
R.M.,1973). Comparing the texture characteristics of radar images at successive dates it
possible to receive representation of the processes of formation, expansion and "healing"
cracks. For a quantitative analysis was worked selection technique of the vector layers based
classification algorithms array of texture characteristics of radar image with comparison
subsequent of clusters with similar characteristics. A comparison of block structures for
different dates showed that because of the complex translational and rotational motion of
individual ice floes and of changes in the size and form of individual blocks (up to
defragmentation or fusion of adjacent blocks) is not possible to evaluate the horizontal
displacements. More productive are to study structural changes of cracking ice (Kirbizhekova
I.I. et al., 2012). In particular, the main features of the structure of the ice shell formed in
2010 at the end of January (see Fig.1.a): trunk crack T1 and crack discontinuity T4 are
formed, the second trunk crack T2 begins to emerge. According to the ground in late January
as a result of a significant short-term increase in temperature (25 C for 28 January) at the site
of the village Listvyanka to the village Big Cats and further powerful ice thrusts on coastline
observed. At least two interplate convergent boundary (subduction zone) T1 and T2 and
formed. On fig.1b can be seen one of the stages of formation: increased deformation of the
ice cover in the central part of the image recorded on March 8. Thus texture analysis methods
are effective for fixing individual stages of the formation, expansion, or "healing" cracks.
a b
Fig.1. Dynamics structure of cracks on ice of Lake Baikal in January-March 2010: a) general system of
cracks for this period; b) new cracks appearing to March 8.

Study of the dynamics of the ice cover by radar interferometry methods.
To estimate the horizontal and vertical movements of ice plates we tried used the
method of differential interferometry (Chimitdorzhiev T.N. et al., 2010; Evtuchkin A.V. et al.,
2010). Due to the low coherence, probably caused by a significant time interval between
surveys (46 days for ALOS PALSAR and 24 days for RADARSAT) and a strong change ice
situation on test areas the expected assessments were not obtained.
A displacement of ice is often incoherent displacement of neighboring stutterers within
a pixel and relative to other pixels that are the elements of the spatial resolution of the radar.
As a consequence the coherence of the radar interferometric pair is reduced and the use of the
differential interferometry method may lead to high measurement error. In these cases it is
accepted to use a offset-tracking procedure or speckle-tracking method, which consists
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in calculating the a cross-correlation of small fragments surface ice radar images. Figures 2
show the directions and amplitudes of movements of individual fragments of ice that are
calculated by speckle-tracking method on interferometry pairs of radar images 2011.
Sublatitudinal domain brittle deformations from Cape Listvenichnoe to Big Cats on the
northern coast and from the village Vydrino to the village Tankhoy on the southern coast
timed to the convergence of two large ice arrays, one of which "Eastern" drifts from east to
west (possibly due to wind Barguzin or subglacial flow from river Selengi to river Angara)
and the other "Western" moves in the south-east. At the front of the Western bloc, along
the southern shore of the lake formed an extended system of trunk cracks. Amplitude of
movements inside the ice massif "Western" is growing in a northeasterly direction and
dramatically damped in the coastal area. An array of "Eastern" is characterized by the growth
of the amplitude in direction to the west. In the back part of the array numerous tension
cracks are formed. Within the selected zone limited trunk cracks displacement amplitudes are
greatly reduced, the distribution of the directions close to chaotic, indicating a complex stress
state of the convergence zone. In warm winter in 2011, due to the different deformations over
a thin shell of ice investigated area we have a certain difference picture of the distribution of
directions and amplitudes of displacement of ice fields (Fig. 2a).

a b
Fig.2. a) The dynamics of the ice cover for the test site Listvyanka on the results of speckle-tracking method
ALOS PALSAR 24/01/2011-11/03/2011; b).

Assessment of horizontal motions by ground GPS-measurements
In March, 2010-2012 ground GPS measurements of ground control points movement,
rigidly fixed to the ice cover near villages Listvyanka and Boyarsk were carried out. The
provisions of points GPS observations during an experiment in 2011, and their movements
are shown on figure 2b. Stationary base station (the base), where was always set one receiver,
located on the shore. Another device is moving to ten places, which are approximately
uniformly spread on the ice by two lines (it form a grid of 2x3 km), that crossing the trunk
crack. Items 1-3 and 8-10 were located on one side cracked in southeast direction, and points
4-7 on the other side of the crack and, in general, are more distant from the shore. Despite
the relatively high daily displacement amplitudes up to 2-3 meters, which observed at some
points of the ice cover, the general movement of individual points for the observation period
(7-10 days) were less than 1 m. In the analysis of the trajectories of the displacement of GPS
points in many cases during one day was observed a return of control points nearly to the
starting point. After 12 hours a vector of movement often is reversed. It is possible that the
ice fields, slightly curved deformities resulting thermal stresses, are straightened, and GPS
measurements are recorded a strain return. After predecessors these features of the
trajectories movement relative to the base point of the coast can interpret as a manifestation
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of some kind of quasi-elastic recoil ice sheet after the previous "regional" compression. GPS
observations are confirmed earlier findings predominantly about thermal mechanism of the
initial deformation of the ice cover Lake Baikal. In field measurements used satellite geodetic
receivers HiPer Topcon and Trimble R3.

Conclusion
In general estimates of displacement-drift ice interferometric methods are in good
agreement with ground truth measurements of GPS. Comparison of ground-based and
satellite data showed that the active deformation processes occur not only at the boundaries of
large ice blocks plates Lake Baikal, but in full, due to the intra-bloc fragmentation ice plates
that are in complex stress state.

This work was supported by the Interdisciplinary Project of SB RAS 73 "The study of
the mechanisms and seismotectonic processes in the Earth's crust by physical modeling on
the ice cover of Lake Baikal".
ALOS PALSAR radar data obtained by the grant of the Japan Aerospace Exploration
Agency 09/JAXA/AEO 0223001 "Study of topography and geology of Baikal region using
optical and radar ALOS data".

References
Chimitdorzhiev T.N., Haptanov V.B.,Zakharov A.I. [etc.] (2010). Using data ALOS
PALSAR radar interferometry and GPR sensing to research cryogenic deformation of soil.
Journal of Radioelectronics. 4, 172181.
Dobretsov N.L., Psakhie S.G., Rugich V.V. [etc.] (2007). Ice cover of Lake Baikal as a
model environment for learning tectonic processes in earth crust. Reports of the Academy of
Sciences. V. 412, 5, 656660.
Evtuchkin A.V., Philatov A.V., Vasilev U.V. [etc.] (2010). PALSAR data usage in carrying
out geodynamic monitoring of oil and gas fields. Modern problems of remote sensing of the
Earth from space. V.7, 2, 122128.
Haralick R.M., Shanmugan K., and Dinstein I. (1973) Textural Features for Image
Classification. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics. V.3, 6, 610-621.
Kirbizhekova I.I., Chimitdorzhiev T.N., Tubanov T.A. [etc.]. (2012). The results of studies of
the dynamics of the ice cover of Lake Baikal methods satellite ALOS PALSAR radar and
GPS-navigation. Vestnik of BSC SB RAS. 1(5), 42-59.
Rugich V.V., Psakhie S.G., Shernikh E.N. [etc.] (2009). Deformation and seismic events in
the ice cover of Lake Baikal. Geology and Geophysics. V. 50, 3, 289299.

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FOURIER TRANSFORM ANALYSIS OF METEOROLOGICAL
TIME SERIES DATA FOR SOME SITES OF MONGOLIA

BAATARCHULUUN Tsermaa, GANBAT Batkhuu,
NARANGARAV Tumur-Uyl and BATSUKH Garmaa

Department of Geophysics, School of Physics and Electronics, National University of Mongolia, NUM building
1-401, Sukhbaatar, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia; E-mail:b_ganbat@num.edu.mn

KEYWORDS: Fourier Transform, Climate change, Time series, Solar radiation

Abstract
Due to the severe climate changes in recent years, there has been a very strong demand for elucidating
the causes of the change and forecasting the imminent effects in nature and society. According to the
necessities, researchers have been facing with the challenging problems to model climate changes
using meteorological time series data, which may be the most consistent indicator for the change.
In this paper, we have tried to estimate fundamental spectral features of meteorological time series data
for some sites of Mongolia by using Fourier Transform analysis. The result shows that the approach
could be useful for revealing the nature of the processes.

AN ESTIMATION OF LAND SURFACE TEMPERATURE USING
SATELLITE DERIVED DATA

S. Javzmaa
1
, E.Munkhtsetseg
1
, M.Odbayar
2
, T.Battsetseg
3

1
Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, NUM, Num building 7-304, Sukhbaatar, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
Mongolia; Tel: +976-95177937, E-mail: sjavzmaa@yahoo.com
Tel: +976-99032917, E-mail: munkhuu0329@yahoo.com
2
Head of remote sensing, Environmental information center
3
Engineer of remote sensing, Environmental information center

Keywords: LST, NDVI, MODIS, satellite

Abstract
Land surface temperature (LST) estimation is meaningful in various ways. A long term land surface
temperature dataset can be used to define changing climatic variability, and LST plays in a main role
on the energy and mass exchange between the earth surface and atmosphere. Analysis of LST for long
term data points that maximal variations occurs at during vegetation growth period, at when
precipitation recharge period as well. Moreover, observed LST varies with geographical type, location
and climatic features. Therefore, it is important to evaluate temporal and spatial variability of LST
using satellite data and reveal the LST relations with land cover changes and geographical types. In this
study, we validated LST estimation from satellite data with real time data at ground station and
defined climatic situations illustrating parameters such as distribution of vegetation cover, humid
concentration and precipitation. Here, we used climate data including surface maximum temperature
and precipitation and satellite data including LST and vegetation cover (NDVI) at 118 stations over
Mongolia, in the period of April to September, 2002 and 2011. For satellite data retrieval, we employed
atmospheric split window algorithm for 31, 32 bands of MODIS.

Introduction
Land surface temperature (LST) is an extremely important parameter that controls the
exchange of long wave radiation between the surface and atmosphere. Because of the
extreme heterogeneity of the most natural land surfaces, LST is a difficult parameter to
estimate and to validate. MODIS is particularly useful for the LST product because of its
global coverage, radiometric resolution and dynamic ranges for a variety of land cover types,
and high calibration accuracy in multiple thermal infrared bands designed for retrievals of
LST and atmospheric properties. Algorithms for deriving land surface temperature using split
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window. Split-window LST method has been developed [Wan and Dozier, 1996] for
correcting atmospheric and emissivity effects for land cover types with 31, 32 bands
emissivities. The accuracy specification for MODIS LST is 1
0
K at 1 km resolution under
clear sky conditions. The accuracy specification for land surface emissivity retrieved from
MODIS data is 0,02 for bands 31, 32.

Study area
This study was conducted for the Mongolian. The region has an extremely antipodal climate.
Mean annual precipitation ranges from less than 150mm towards the south to more than
460mm toward the north-west. Here we used climate data including LST and vegetation
cover (NDVI) at 118 stations over Mongolia, in the period of April to September 2002 and
2011.

Data processing
Monthly NDVI and LST images for the growing seasons (May to September), precipitation
and temperature were constructed for the entire Mongolian over 6 months (May to
September) using ARC/MAP, ERDAS IMAGINE, ENVI, Excel and other statistical tools.
Monthly NDVI and LST images for growing seasons (May to September) were derived using
MODIS bands 31,32. Precipitation and temperature data were derived from 118 weather
stations in around of Mongolia (figure 1( a)). Analyses were stratified according to the
natural zones of Steppe, High mountain, taiga and Dessert, dessert steppe (figure1(b)).

Figure 1.(a) locations of weather stations used for precipitation and temperature.
(b) land use/ land cover map of Mongolia used for stratification analyses.

Analysis of relations between climatic factors and NDVI
We examined spatial relations between NDVI and each of the climate factors precipitation,
temperature (maximum) and stratified according to the natural zones of Steppe, High
mountain, taiga and Dessert, dessert steppe. The primary goal of the analyses was to evaluate
to correspondence between NDVI spatial patterns and climate variation, analyses examined
relations both within growing seasons.
Spatial patterns of NDVI, precipitation and temperature

(b) (a)
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Figure 2. (a) Spatial patterns of NDVI and Precipitation

Figure 2. (b) Spatial patterns of NDVI and Precipitation

Figure 2. (c) Spatial patterns of land surface (LST) and station air temperature (Ts)

Figure 2. Six month averages (May to September) for (a) and (b) summed annual precipitation and NDVI
relations in 2002, 2011 respectively over in Mongolia. Also for (c) monthly LST and correlation coefficients
between spatial summed distribution of monthly LST and station air temperature (Ts).
Very strong correlations were generally found above high mountain, forest steppe, taiga and steppe regions
during in whole growing seasons (May to September) .

Table 1. NDVI and Precipitation relations
Variable 2002
Month 4 5 6 7 8 9
R
2
0.246 0.073 0.021 0.386 0.382 0.378
r 0,495 0,27 0,14 0,621 0,618 0,614
Variable 2011
Month 4 5 6 7 8 9
R
2
0.391 0.457 0.482 0.375 0.315 0.391
r 0,625 0,676 0,694 0,612 0,561 0,625

In Table 1, representing correlation coefficients between NDVI and Precipitation period
during May to September in 2002, 2011 respectively. At the beginning of the season the
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correlation coefficients decreased rapidly then coefficients increased and remained high
value in 2002. However at the beginning of the season the correlation coefficients
increased rapidly then coefficients remained high and finally coefficients typically
increased during the late season in 2011.

Conclusions
Our results demonstrate that NDVI spatial patterns in the Mongolians are primarily
related to precipitation spatial patterns. The relative differences in NDVI according to
spatial locations are relatively constant. Based on correlation analyses of monthly
precipitation and NDVI maps, we were able to assess the influence of precipitation on
NDVI spatial patterns. Consider mentioned above precipitation and NDVI maximum
value exist in high mountain, forest steppe, taiga zone. Therefore precipitation and NDVI
values depending on geographical location (figure 2(a,b)). Also their values varied with
geographical zones.
Estimating land surface temperature (LST) and stations air temperature correlation
coefficients are high depended each other. Therefore we will possible to validate stations
air temperature depending on LST.
At the beginning of the season the correlation coefficients increased rapidly then
coefficients remained high and finally coefficients typically increased during the late
season (table 1).

References
Kelkar, R.R (1997). Satellite Meteorology.
Okobayashi, T. (1982). The Use of Meteorological Satellite data (II).
MODIS Land Surface Temperature. Algorithm Theoretical basis Document. (LST-
ATBD).
ZHENMING WAN. Institute for Computation Earth system science, University of
California, Santa Barbara.
Dr FRED PRATA. (2002) Land Surface Temperature Measurement from Space. CSIRO
Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, Australia.
METED.UCAR.EDU (COMET e-Training Course)

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DEFORESTATION ASSESSMENT BY INTEGRATING
MULTI-TEMPORAL SATELLITE IMAGE
AND INTENSIFIED FIELD SURVEY

AMARTUVSHIN

Sumiya
1
, UDVAL Bayarsaikhan
1
, TSENDSUREN Dagdan (Ph.D)
1

1
Researcher, Division of Forest Resources and Forest Protection, Institute of Geoecology,
Mongolian Academy of Sciences, MAS building 2-219, Chingeltei, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
E-mail: su.amartuvshin@yahoo.com

KEY WORDS: Supervised classification, Landsat TM, breast height, crown diameter, crown density, any
damage caused by fire and external factors, regeneration types, vegetation type, elevation, slope, aspect

Abstract
The research site Tujiin nars Special Protected area is located at the Altanbulag county and Shaamar
county, Selenge province. The Tujiin nars Special Protected total land area is 97272 hectare. The
results show loss of forest cover in the Tujiin nars Special Protected area over a 20-year period. The
decrease in the area of coniferous forest, increase in grassland and mixed forest and little increase in
deciduous forest. Forested area of selected site was damaged by fire enormously since 1986, and main
reason of forest change is fire. Illegal logging has covered large area in 1990-2002. Nevertheless,
illegal logging and forest fire can cause deforestation, followed by forest ecosystem degradation.
Currently, extinct forestland area is being rehabilitated. The Ministry of Nature and Environment has
declared Tujiin nars forest area as a Special Protected area in 2002, after illegal logging is stopped. The
results of field investigation show that about 46% of the growing stock is decreased by impacts. About
23% of the growing stock is increased, although coniferous trees are decreased and broad-leafed trees
are increased.

Introduction
Some report indicates that during last 100 year, about 1.45 million hectare of country's
forests have been affected by different human activities such as forest fire, insect pests and
logging etc., and there was dramatic change in forest ecosystems (Dorjsuren, 2007).
The first forest inventory throughout Mongolia was carried out by a Russian forest
expedition in 1956 for 10.4 million hectares, Russian and Mongolian forest expedition are
using air photo image, and they defined the forest resource area is 15.2 million hectares in
1974. A Forest inventory result throughout Mongolia was carried out by Mongolian Forest
Inventory and Survey Expedition in 2006 for 18.2 million hectares; surveys of the recent
years have a forest resource area of 19.2 million hectares. The measuring result is
dissimilarity and forest area is accumulated although forest area throughout Mongolia was
carried out 3 times. However forest land area is decreasing practically (Dorjsuren, 2007).
Forest resource change detection shall be made once in 10 years according to Forest
Law, however by current technology, equipments, and human capacity the detection of
changes are made by inventory and documentation of recent 20 years and used in forest
management. Therefore there are a lot of difficulties in forest policy and planning due to the
use of old data in forest management and considerable forest changes in a short period of
time.
Thus, I want to conduct research on this topic in order to define reasons and causes of
forest dilution and degradation by using satellite data and remote sensing methods on forest
cover changes of Mongolian vast land of a short period of time.
Research Goal and Objectives: The goal of this research is to utilize be various
method of Remote Sensing, integrating multi-temporal satellite images and intensified field
survey, constant monitoring assessment be forest cover change and deforestation. To achieve
this goal the following specific objectives were set: [1] How is assessment on the state of
forest changing in a time period on the basis of the research within collected satellite images
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and field survey data and information; [2] Forest cover type classification maps; [3]
Evaluation of forest change;

Study area
The research site Tujiin nars Special Protected area is located at the Altanbulag
county and Shaamar county, Selenge province. The Tujiin nars Special Protected total land
area is 97272 hectare. The Ministry of Nature and Environment has declared Tujiin nars
forest area as a Special
Protected area in 2002, in order
to protect it from degraded
forest land, reforestation and
insuring conservation of native
landscape.

Figure 1. Forest map of Mongolia
and study area
Until 1990, prior to transition formation to a market economy, Bugant tree logging
company, Sukhbaatars wood processing factory, Dulaankhaans wood transferring station,
Sukhbaatars wood factory, Forest harvesting company of Shariin gol, Forest logging
company of Tunkhel, Wood processing factory of Zuun kharaas prison service unit, Railway
sleeper factory of Zuunkharaa have been producing 20-150 thousand m
3
of wood annually.
Nowadays, these organizations are privatized and split into many small companies their
techniques and equipments are out of date. Therefore, size of production is drastically
decreased.

Method and Materials
This study aims
to detect forest cover
and forest cover change
detection with
supervised classification,
then to analyse changes
over time with post
classification
comparisons. Technical
details about the base
data, which were
obtained at
approximately 20-year
interval. L_132_25 data
corresponds to selected
area, and Landsat image
of 1991 and 2010 was
downloaded from
website http://glovis.usgs.gov/. Satellite data were collected for use in calculating forest
change and development of forest type map of the selected area.
A total of 23 permanent sample plots 50 x 50 m each were established in order to
study of forest change detection of the selected area. According to forest mensuration
methodology, the height, diameter at breast height, crown diameter, crown density, any
damage caused by fire and external factors, regeneration types, vegetation type, elevation,
Landsat TM data
(1991, 2010 years)

Layer stack of the Landsat
images
Atmospheric correction
(TOA reflectance)

Subset of the study area
Supervised classification
method
(Maximum likelihood method)

- Forest sample plot,
reforestation,
natural regeneration site data
- Forest inventory statistics
data
(1995, 2008)
- Reforestation areas data
(1987-2010)
- Forest fire data (2000-2010)
Permanent
sample plot
statistics data
Field data

Forest classification maps
(1991, 2010 years)

Accuracy assessment
(Random sampling)

Change detection
(Change matrix)

Forest change maps
(1991-2010)

RESULT
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slope, aspect and location coordinates is measured and counted all of the trees in each plots.
A total of 50 samples are drilled in order to determine the stand age.

Results of Classification and Change Detection
Forest cover classification
An important step in supervised classification is the determination of classes. The
number of classes that will be used and how these classes will be defined need to be
determined for the area subject to classification (Onur et al., 2009). The forest cover
classification is a major subject in RS technology, and is important for forest cover change
interpretation. The forest cover classification is a process for identifying all pixels of an
image as certain forest cover classes.
Forest cover mapping was carried out by supervised classification. A maximum-
likelihood supervised classification was then run on the edited signatures. Finally the
classification result was interpreted visually considering specific band combinations, field
observations, topographic, forest inventory maps and Google Earth, and spectral
characteristics of each class. Forest cover classes over the Tujiin nars Special Protected
area have changed significantly in the 20-year period from 1991 to 2010. Data was processed
and classified into 8 groups (Water, Grassland, Agriculture, Coniferous forest, Deciduous
forest, Mixed forest, Marshy ground, Sandy hill)

Accuracy assessment
In this study, 128 accuracy assessment check points were randomly placed across the
study area using ERDAS Imagines Accuracy Assessment. A project interface was set up
containing the check point shapefile, the two thematic change images based on the Landsat
images, Forest inventory map and Google Earth. The overall accuracy was 88.28% for the
1991 data and 83.59% for 2010 data.

Forest covers change detection
After the image classification, the forest cover changes were detected comparing classified
images. For the quantitative forest cover change detection, Matrix function in ERDAS was
performed. The amount of change from each class to another in each period was analyzed by
the calculation of the change matrices between 1991 and 2010. Diagonal of forest cover
confusion matrix total area of forest cover, which does not change, by the columns total area
of forest cover types in 1991, and by the rows total area of forest cover types in 2010.

Figure 2. Forest cover change map between 1991 and 2010.

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Table 2. Change matrix between years 1991 and 2010 forest map area (ha and %)
Time

2010

Class Grassland
Coniferous
forest
Deciduous
forest
Mixed
forest
Total
(1991)
1
9
9
1

Grassland
25795.6
(75.46%)
1544.8
(4.52%)
2690.7
(7.87%)
2764.5
(8.09%)
34185.5
Coniferous forest
13192.5
(39.75%)
11894.9
(35.84%)
4328.4
(13.04%)
3704.8
(11.16%)
33189.1
Deciduous forest
1502
(9.73%)
1128.3
(7.31%)
5917.3
(38.34%)
6793.6
(44.01%)
15435.6
Mixed forest
4133.3
(35.17%)
1297.7
(11.04%)
2952
(25.12%)
3239.2
(27.56%)
11752.1
Total (2010) 45866.4 15902.2 16036.6 16611.9

Area values in hectare unit

In 1991 grassland occupies 34185.5 ha of total study area, 33189.1 ha is coniferous
forest, 15435.6 ha is deciduous forest and 11752.1 ha is mixed forest. In 2010 grassland
occupies 45866.4 ha of total study area, 15902.2 ha is coniferous forest, 16036.6 ha is
deciduous forest and 16611.9 ha are mixed forest (Table 2).
The results indicate a decrease in the coniferous forest class by 17286.9 ha
contributing to 52.09% of the total coniferous forest cover in 1991; out of which, 13192.5 ha
has been changed to grassland, and the rest to classes like deciduous forest (4328.4 ha) and
mixed forest (3704.8 ha). The deciduous forest area has increased by 601 ha (3.89%) and
mixed forest area has increased by 4859.8 ha (41.35%) in 19 years. The results indicate an
increase in the grassland class by 11680.9 ha contributing to 34.17% of the total grassland
cover in 2010. A total of 13192.5 ha of coniferous forest, 1502 ha of deciduous forest and
4133.3 ha of mixed forest has been degraded to grassland.
Forest cover changes from 1991 to 2010 were: 34.17% increase in grassland, 52.09%
decrease in coniferous forest, 3.89% increase in deciduous forest, 41.35% increase in mixed
forest (Table 3).

Table 3. Forest cover and forest cover change during 19 years (ha and %)
Class 1991 2010 1991-2010
Grassland
34185.5
(35.1%)
45866.4
(35.0%)
11680.9
(34.2%)
Coniferous forest
33112.3
(34.1%)
15902.2
(34.0%)
-17286.9
(-52.1%)
Deciduous forest
15260.9
(15.9%)
16036.6
(15.8%)
601.0
(3.9%)
Mixed forest
11524.5
(12.1%)
16611.9
(12.8%)
4859.8
(41.4%)
Area values in hectare unit

Grassland increased 57.1% (19454.3 ha) from 1991 to 2000, but decreased 14.4%
(7727 ha) from 2000 to 2010. The aggregate change for Grassland from 1991 to 2010 was an
increase of 34.2% (11680.9).
Coniferous forest decreased during the study period. Coniferous forest decreased by
50.4% (16699.8 ha) in the first period, but there was little change in the second period (-3.4%,
or 551.8 ha). The aggregate Coniferous forest decrease for the study period was 52.1%
(17286.9 ha).
Deciduous forest increased 27.9% (4194.3 ha) from 1991 to 2000, but increased
44.1% (4906.2 ha) from 2000 to 2010. The aggregate change for Deciduous forest from 1991
to 2010 was an increase of 3.9% (601.0 ha).
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Mixed forest increased throughout the study period: up 12.3% (1439.8 ha) from 1991-
2000, then up 25.9% (3416.6 ha) from 2000-2010 and finally up 41.4% (4859.8 ha) from
2000-2010.

Conclusion
The results show loss of forest cover in the Tujiin nars Special Protected area over a
20-year period. The decrease in the area of coniferous forest, increase in grassland and mixed
forest and little increase in deciduous forest. Forested area of selected site was damaged by
fire enormously since 1986, and main reason of forest change is fire. Illegal logging has
covered large area in 1990-2002. Nevertheless, illegal logging and forest fire can cause
deforestation, followed by forest ecosystem degradation. Currently, extinct forestland area is
being rehabilitated.
The Ministry of Nature and Environment has declared Tujiin nars forest area as a
Special Protected area in 2002, after illegal logging is stopped. The results of forest cover
change detection show that aggregate change for grassland an increase of 34.2% (11680.9 ha),
deciduous forest an increase of 3.9% (601.0 ha), mixed forest an increase of 41.4% (4859.8
ha) and coniferous forest a decrease of 52.1% (17286.9 ha).

References
1. Lu, D., Mausel, P., Brondizo, E., Moran, E., 2004. Change detection techniques. INT. J.
Remote Sensing, Vol. 25, No. 12, p. 23652407.
2. Onur. I., et al., 2009. Change detection of land cover and land use using remote sensing
and GIS: a case study in Kemer, Turkey International Journal of Remote Sensing Vol. 30,
No. 7, p. 17491757.
3. Tsogtbaatar, J., 2004. Deforestation and Reforestation needs in Mongolia. In: Forest
Management and Forest Ecology journal, Elsevier. 201(2004), p. 57-63.
4. Tsogtbaatar, J., et al., 1997. Forests and Forest Management in Mongolia. FAO, RAP.
Bangkok. Thailand.
5. Tsedendash, G., 1993. Forest vegetation of Hentei Mountain in Mongolia. Dissertation
for Ph. degree of biological science. p. 186.
6. World Bank, 2004. Mongolia Forestry Sector Review. Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, p. 16.
7. Rabindra K. Panigrahy., Manish P. Kale., Upasana Dutta., Asima Mishra., Bishwarup
Banerjee., Sarnam Singh., 2010. Forest cover change detection of Western Ghats of
Maharashtra using satellite remote sensing based visual interpretation technique. Current
Science, Vol. 98, p. 657-664.

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GEOSPATIAL DATABASE AT
CADASTRAL LEVEL

Uuganbayar Tsembel
1
, K. Ram Mohan Rao
2
, Janaki Rama Suresh G
2
IIRS, Dehradun.

Abstract
Cadastral information has immense potential in planning, judicious management, conservation and
sustainable use of soil, land and crop resources. It helps to monitor and identify the problem areas and
calls for alternate appropriate and energy efficient methods and practices. The objective of this study is
to generate Cadastral Geodatabase and customize the parcel information using Geoinformation
technologies. Rampura in the Western doon valley in Dehradun district of Uttarakhand is the study
area.CIS Customisation is performed using MapObjects 2.1 in Visual Basic Environment. The
geospatial data sets of Arable land, Barren land, Fallow, Settlement, Orchard and Roads are integrated
into GIS for easy to use purpose. Tool bar is generated for the utility purpose. Add layer / remove layer
option is also integrated into GIS. Queries are generated using information selection objects. It renders
feature selection with retrieval objects using Parcel ID, and Parcel Name to reveal the attribute
information.
Cadastral Information System provides the end user easy to use environment and better visualization
and information retrieval using advanced customized SQL functions. Using Map Object tools in Visual
Basic Environment, the cadastral information is customized for better decision making.

Methodology
1.1. Personal Geodatabase
1.1.1. An overview of geodatabase design
Geodatabase design is based on a common set of fundamental GIS design steps, so it's
important to have a basic understanding of these GIS design goals and methods. This section
provides an overview.
GIS design involves organizing geographic information into a series of data themes
layers that can be integrated using geographic location. So it makes sense that geodatabase
design begins by identifying the data themes to be used, then specifying the contents and
representations of each thematic layer.
This involves defining
How the geographic features are to be represented for each theme (for example, as
points, lines, polygons, or rasters) along with their tabular attributes
How the data will be organized into datasets such as feature classes, attributes, raster
datasets, and so forth
What additional spatial and database elements will be needed for integrity rules, for
implementing rich GIS behavior (such as topologies, networks, and raster catalogs),
and for defining spatial and attribute relationships between datasets
1.1.2. An overview and definition of geodatabase properties
During the design phase of your geodatabase, you determined the type of data you
were going to store in the geodatabase, how you would store it, and how it would be used and
maintained. Now you must translate this design into a physical implementation in the
geodatabase.
1.2. The Customization Technique for Application of GIS
The customization technique makes use of the object-oriented approach, in an
infrastructure data model, whereby data files like maps and tables, the object libraries of
standard office packages like Excel and Access, and of Mapobjects, are considered as objects
and components of the application development project. The existing functionalities like
charting, table display, colour palette of other software are tapped for graphic display through
referencing, and queries performed through the Standard Query Language (SQL), made
available in the Visual Basic (VB) development platform, and a multitasked Windows
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environment. The Visual Basic programming language has been used as a control container
to assemble the multiple controls and components for a rapid application development (RAD).
MapObjects is an ESRIs product, consisting of a collection of mapping components
(viz., MapObjects OCX and other programmable ActiveX automation) for application
developers. It provides the possibility to create customized solutions so as to meet the
desktop mapping, and GIS needs of common users, through the following facilities:
Display data using classifications (regrouping/ categorisation), graduated
symbols, and labeling
Pan and zoom through multiple map layers
Queries features displayed on the map
By means of MapObjects. OCX and a data connection string, the directory containing
the different map files, and their related databases are retrieved and read.
The IDE is made up of a number of components:
Menu bar
Tool bar
Project Explorer Window
Properties of Window
Form Layout Window
Tool box
Form Window
Form Designer
Code Window
Immediate Window

Figure 1: Visual Basic 6.0 Integrated Development Environments

Results and discussions
In this study a customized GIS application is developed for the cadastral level
geospatial map to display and query through parcel information. Different attributes such as
parcel Id, parcel name, name of the owner, land marks, area of the parcels, perimeter of the
parcel, suitable crops etc.. are developed in the attribute tables. These attributes are selected
though the Cadastral Information System (CIS) developed in the Visual Basic Environment.
Rendering the features on the Map
Maps become most interesting when symbols are applied to features in such a way as
to reveal information about places. In this chapter you will discover the techniques for
controlling the symbols used to draw layers. You can turn your map display into a work of art,
and that alone is worth the effort necessary to master the Symbol, TextSymbol, and renderrer
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objects. This chapter also explains how to draw shapes and text on a map that do not
correspond to features in a data set and how to output a map.
Code examples from the moView2 samples application that use the Symbol,
TextSymbol, and renderer objects will help you get started. You can take elements from the
application to jump-start your application.
In this chapter you are going to cover
Symbolizing layers
Symbolizing polygon, line, and point layers
Symbolizing features by attribute value
Value MapRenderer object
ClassBreakRenderer object
DotDensityRenderer object
LabelRenderer and LabelPlacer object

Symbolizing layers
When you add layers to a map, you will quickly notice that the colors used to display the
layers are randomly assigned. This is done so that you can differentiate the layers in your
Map control without any effort. However you will want to take a control of the symbols that
are defined for your layers. The symbol property of the map layer object specified how
geometric objects or features in a Maplayer are drawn.
Symbolizing features by unique attribute values
In Cadastral Information System you can click the Unique tab on the Layer
properties dialog to apply a ValueMap Renderer to a Layer. Setting the Symbol property of a
MapLayer draws all features in the same symbol. Renderer objects allow you to draw
different features with different symbols based on their attribute values.
MapObjects provides four renderer objects:
ClassBreaksRenderer group the feature into different ranges of numeric values.
ValueMapRenderer apply a symbol to each unique value.
DotDensithRenderer draws polygon features with random dot patterns, whose density
correspons to the value in a numeric field from the attribute table.
Labelrenderer draws text from an attribute value.
1. Double-click on layer name in the legend to open the layer symbol properties dialog
2. Click the Unique tab
3. Click the Field dropdown arrow, and click the field you want to render.
4. Uncheck the Draw outline box to remove the outlines.
5. Click OK to apply the new renderer to your MapLayer.
6. Examine the code for ValueMapRenderer which assigned the unique value for
the polygons.
The following code will illustrate the ValueMapRenderer Object functionalities.

Conclusions and recommendations
The cadastre deals with two resources - land and information. Pressures on land are
growing in every community both through population, environmental and ecological
change. To monitor, plan and manage that change better information is needed.
Computerization of Cadastral records offers vital support for such activities.
Compared with existing cadastral system, the cadastral information system based on
digital cadastral maps gives an overview about its uses and solutions and can be
expanded to serve the purpose of sustainable development.
Cadastral Information System provides the end user easy to use environment, better
visualization and information retrieval using advanced customized SQL functions.
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Cadastral Information System is customized for better decision making using map
object tools in VB.
The changing scenario in development and modern governance demands advanced
technologies and tools for better understanding of needs and planning. The need of the
day is creation of a comprehensive land information system that serves as efficient
decision making tool.

References
1. Application Development Using Visual Basic. Retrieved from
http://www.skillbridgetraining.com/Course_Files/APPLICATION%20DEVELOPME
NT%20USING%20VISUAL%20BASIC%20AND%20.NET.pdf
2. Bob Reselman. Richard Peasley, and Wayne Pruchniak. (2002). Using Visual Basic 6.
New Delhi. ISBN 81-203-1515-4
3. Evangelos Petroutsos. (2002). Mastering Visual Basic. New Delhi. ISBN 81-7656-
031-6
4. Export From Map Object Sample. Retrieved from
http://edndoc.esri.com/arcobjects/9.0/Samples/Cartography/Printing_and_Exporting/E
xportFromMapObject/ExportFromMapObject.htm
5. Francesco Balena. (2003). Programming Microsoft Visual Basic 6.0. Bangalore-
560008. ISBN 81-7853-047-3
6. Greg Perry. (2002). SAMS Teach yourself Visual Basic 6 in 21 days. New Delhi.
ISBN 81-7635-150-4
7. Kate Gregory. (1998). Using Visual Basic C++5. New Delhi. ISBN 81-203-1307-0
8. MapObjects 2.1 file requirements for deploying applications. Retrieved from
http://www.systematics.co.il/gis/Support/edn/pdf/mo21deployments.pdf
9. MapObjects Users On-Line Discussion Forums. Retrieved from
http://forums.esri.com/Thread.asp?c=9&f=85&t=138100#400608
10. Menachem Bazian. (1999). Special Edition Using Visual Basic Fox Pro 6. New Delhi.
ISBN 81-203-1538-3
11. Pyle, D., 1999. Data Preparation for Data Mining. Morgan Kaufmann Publishers, Los
Altos, California.
12. S. Kotsiantis, D. Kanellopoulos, P. Pintelas, "Data Preprocessing for Supervised
Leaning", International Journal of Computer Science, 2006
13. Tom Soukup. Ian Davidson. (2002). Visual Basic Mining. New Delhi. ISBN 81-265-
0314-9
14. Using Visual Basic and MapObjects to Develop Mapping Applications. Retrieved
from
http://proceedings.esri.com/library/userconf/proc97/proc97/to500/pap464/p464.htm
15. Visual Basic Tutorial Summary. Retrieved from http://www.devdos.com/vb/
16. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cadastre

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DETERMINATION OF KHOVD RIVERS FRACTAL DIMENSION
USING SATELLITE REMOTE SENSING DATA

B.Bolortuu1
l
, R.Tsolmon
2
, O.Lkhagva
3

1, 2
NUM-ITC-UNESCO laboratory for Remote Sensing /Space Science, School of Physics and Electronics,
National University of Mongolia mail:
1
tuul_bolor@yahoo.com
2
tsolmon91@yahoo.com
3
Department of Theoretical Physics, School of Physics and Electronics, National University of Mongolia mail:
olhagvao@yahoo.com

KEYWORDS: Classification of Khovd River, Fractal dimension, structure, fractal dimensions correlations

Abstract
The objective of this research is determination of fractal dimension in the Khovd river using satellite
image. The fractal structure of the Khovd River was revealed and its fractal dimension is calculated to
indicate natural fractals. Fractal dimensions were calculated and compared for 15, 30, 45, 60, 250 m
resolution satellite images (Landsat, MODIS) in August, 2011. We have also studied fractal dimension
correlations of satellite images. The correlation coefficient of fractal dimension was r
2
=0.974
(regression) which as related to logarithm with satellite images (Landsat and MODIS).

Introduction
A fractal dimension is an index for characterizing fractal patterns or sets by
quantifying their complexity as a ratio of the change in detail to the change in scale. Several
types of fractal dimension can be measured theoretically and
empirically (see Figure1). Fractal dimensions are used to
characterize a broad spectrum of objects ranging from the
abstract to practical phenomena, including turbulence, river
networks, urban growth, and human physiology, and medicine
and market trends.

Figure 1. A 32-segment quadric fractal scaled and viewed through boxes of
different sizes. The pattern illustrates self-similarity. The theoretical fractal
dimension for this fractal is log32/log8 = 1.67; its empirical fractal dimension
from box counting analysis is 1%

using fractal analysis software.

The self-similarity lies in the infinite scaling, and the detail in the defining elements of each
set. The length between any two points on these curves is undefined because the curves are
theoretical constructs that never stop repeating themselves. Every smaller piece is composed
of an infinite number of scaled segments that look exactly like the first iteration. These are
not rectifiable curves, meaning they cannot be measured by being broken down into many
segments approximating their respective lengths. They cannot be characterized by finding
their lengths or slopes. However, their fractal dimensions can be determined, which shows
that both fill space more than ordinary lines but less than surfaces, and allows them to be
compared in this regard.

Objectives
The objective of this study aimed to describe fractal structure of river using satellite image.
To implement this objective we have focused on following goals such as,
3. To calculate N (number of new sticks) using Landsat and MODIS data.
4. To evaluate D (fractal dimension) using analysis method
5. To compare fractal structure of river
6. To estimate correlation fractal structure of river

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Study area
This study area is Khovd river of Khovd aimag which located in the western part between
48
0
-49
0
N latitude and E90
0
-91
0
E longitude. N48
0
-49
0
. It flows from Tavan Bogd mountain
of the Altai Mountain to Khar-Us lake. The length of the river is 516 kilometers.

Figure 2. Position of study area

Used data
In order to investigate Landsat ETM+ data potential for river mapping, a small window on
141-26,27 and 142-26,27 and 143-26 scenes from 7
th
of August 2011 and 25
th
of August
2011, also MODIS data 24
th
of August and some ancillary data were selected.

Table1. Collected data
Satellite Sensor Date acquired
Spatial
resolution (m)
Landsat TM+ 25 August 2011 30
Landsat
(PAN) ETM+ 25 August 2011 15
MODIS

24 August 2011 250
Software
ERDAS IMAGINE 9.1
ArcGIS 9.3
ENVI 4.7

Methodology

Figure3. Methodology scheme
This formula is derived directly from the Hausdorff definition.
Using only the fact that the fractal is exactly self-similar.

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=
=
log ( )
log ( )

Where: N Number of new sticks
R Scaling factor
D Fractal dimension

This method of finding fractal dimension can be used for only strictly self-similar fractals.
Other ways of computing fractal dimension include: mass, box, compass, etc.

Results and analysis
Fractal dimension is one of the most important determinants of fractal structure. Therefore, I
selected to apply fractal dimension of Khovd River using self similar methodology in August,
2011(figure 4). According to this, supervised classification from different spatial data
analysiswere characterized.

Figure 4. Classification of Landsat and MODIS data in August, 2011

Figure 5. Fractal structure of Khovd River

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Figure 6. Correlation Fractal dimensions depend on different spatial data
(Landsat and MODIS satellite data)

Correlation between the fractal dimension is determined r
2
=0.974 which is 98.7% (Figure 3).I
compared this correlation between the related from logarithm with Landsat and MODIS
satellite data in the River.

Conclusion
- Khovd River was defined linear correlation and fractal dimension using satellite
image.
- Fractal structure was evaluated by using satellite image possible.
- A high resolution image was defined fractal structure of river well.
- We also can use the fractal structure for geology, geotectonic and geomorphology.
- All of the natural objects are fractal dimensions type then we could determine fractal
dimension (shape) for any other natural objects using by satellite images.
- In the future, as these new fields develop and progress, they will hopefully help our
understanding of nature overall and bring new applications of fractal structures, that
will be as widely used fractal structure is today.

References
1. D.Amarsaikhan, M.Ganzorig, M.Saandari, Ts.Adiyasuren., 2006
,
2. S.Myagmarjav, 2007
3. Janez Podhostnik, 2012 Fractal Structures
4. Marek Cieplak, Achille Giacometti, Amos Maritan, Andrea Rinaldo, Ignacio
Rodriguez-Iturbe, Jayanth R. Banavar., 1998 Models of Fractal River Basins
5. Pierluigi Claps, Giuseppe Oliveto., 1996 Reexamining the determination of the
fractal dimension of river network
6. http://fractal.org/
7. http://glovis.usgs.gov/

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THE APPLICATION OF GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION
SYSTEM IN LAND VALUATION

Nyamsuren O
1
/Ph.D/, Enkhmanlai A
2
, Ser-Od B
3

1,3-Agricultural University,2-land administration department of capital city
nyamaa_to@yahoo.com

Justification
Valuation of land and of the building constructions on it dates to back to 1990s when
land has been taxed and privatized . As land marketing at that time was not developed the
base price for land valuation has been established by an enlarged budget method of
expenditure invested to a unit of land in city and settled regions, but for agricultural areas by
method of income capitalization based on production income per square unit.
Under the present condition land is being intensively used. Land valuation, one of
major means for its regulation, attracts a keen attention. The basic land assessment
established by the state to calculate land taxation, payment and compensation is too harsh ,
not flexible and is not meeting objective requirements of the life.
The main tendency in land evaluation designed for a global taxation payment
is directed at land valuation based on wholesale (mass) land value and making this method
relying on the detailed cadastral assessment, thus being shifted to a new method of the
standard market pricing.
Research and study in this direction is of vital importance for Mongolian country.
Under these circumstances we introduce conclusion on the surveyed methods of the cadastral
valuation.

Goals and targets of the research work
The purpose is to establish the design of gher area land evaluation in the land
assessment of Ulaanbaatar city by using the cadastre valuation method.
To reach the purpose the following goals were resolved:
Standard market price for gher district land has been defined by studying the land
market price;
Ratio has been established by calculation the dependency of factors influencing on the
land price;
From the point of view of effective calculation of the land price modification has been
made by ratio established in the standard price using the cadastre evaluation method
and price evaluation design for square unit has been produced.

Research method
Information on land market price has been performed by the mathematical statistics
method that is by the statistics processing of the selected research materials.
Correlation survey has been made on factors that could impact the land price,
dependence has been formed and ratio calculated.
Valuation of the land or square unit has been modified by cadastre assessment of the
standard price for issuing the square unit price.
The unit squares were selected and surveyed depending on the location. The standard price
of the unit square of the selected area has been defined according to the cadastre valuation
used in other countries. Cadastre valuation activity has been performed in 2 stages.
I. To perform general assessment of an average market price different by type of
utilization and regional valuation.

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II. To form the square unit price by ratio modification of the general assessment that
influences price of the particular land.
Research site
Involved is the Ulaanbaatar gher district area or the area designed for a household
needs.

Experimental outcome of land cadastral valuation in Ulaanbaatar
By collecting land price information priority attention has been focused on the
information related to the sold land , and a variant of collecting inquiry on land price
information has been drafted. Following information has been included into the land price
questionnaire ( form): address, location, sold price, land status, purpose of land use, size of
land, amount of immovable assets, design, term of exploitation, date of construction, etc.
Non-official conversations were held at the district bureau of land management with
the people who were going to transfer their land licenses, on some occasion, information of
the third subject has been used.
Information on market price for almost 1000 land parcels sold at the market has been
collected from the TV, radio, advertizing newspapers, immovable property mediatory service
centers, internet and land authorities sources for surveying and evaluation.
The measurement unit of the particular square has been taken from the bureau of the
district land management according to the address location and put on the city cadastral map.

Figure 1. Market price survey of Ulaanbaatar gher district land

Judging from the picture, the market price of total sold land, the fixed state cost
MNT 13200 taken into account, has been grouped into the following price intervals: 0
10000 below base price, MNT10,000 20,000 approaching the base price, MNT20,000-
30,000 above base price, MNT30,000-50,000 approaching inefficient MNT44,000 price,
high price 50,000-100,000, 100,000-150,000 and above hyper 150,000 price.

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Figure 2. Making of spatial analysis relying on the market price of the Ulaanbaatar gher district land

Thiessen or also known as Voronoi polygons were used (named after the people who
discovered this algorithm).
These created polygons then were thematically linked and classified in colors. First the given
prices were divided into groups of the same size and classifications chosen.
Taking into account the actual situation of the locality the Thiessen polygons which
were calculated in the mathematical method then were used for the creation of the regional
base of the land standard price.

Figure 3. Standard price of the Ulaanbaatar gher district land area

By reviewing the objects involved in our survey , the land value of the Ulaanbaatar
gher district has been divided into 15 zones, the zonal standard price has been calculated by
an arithmetic average of the market price.
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The average timed market price of the land sold at the market has been taken as an
average zonal standard price. The defined zonal standard price has been compared with the
base price.
Table 1.Comparison of the standard price of Ulaanbaatar gher district land with base price
Land location
Average market
price for 1m2 land
Basic price for 1 m2
land
balance ()
1 Gandan 121000 13200 +107800
2 32- Toiruu (ring) 65400 13200 +52200
3 Tasgany Ovoo 61900 13200 +48700
4 Chuluun Ovoo 41300 13200 +28100
5 Denjiin myanga 35100 13200 +21900
6 Yarmag 15900 13200 +2700
7 Dambadarjaa 13000 13200 -200
8 Airport 13000 13200 -200
9 Bayankhoshuu 12100 13200 -1100
10 Khailast 10800 13200 -2400
11 Amgalan 10300 13200 -2900
12 Chingeltei 9400 13200 -3800
13 Sharhad 8800 13200 -4400
14 Tolgoit 5800 13200 -7400
15 Zuun salaa 3300 13200 -9900

Judging from above chart, land in Gandan, 32-yn Toiruu, Tasgany Ovoo, Chuluun
Ovoo, Denjiin myanga regions was 2-8 times up of the base price.
But land price in Yarmag, Dambadarjaa, Airport, Bayankhoshuu and Amgalan
regions was coming close to the base land price while in Chingeltei, Shar Had, Tolgoit and
Zuunsalaa areas sold below the base price.
As a result of surveying the factors influencing the land of the gher area the design of
the cadastral valuation of gher district land has been determined as following:

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Here:
- cadastre valuation,
- standard zonal price,

- land size (
2
),

1
- ratio of modification at distance up to bus station,
K
2
- modification ratio distance up to the well,
K
3
- modification ratio of the distance remote from city center,
K
4
- modification ratio of land surface decline ,
K
5
- modification ratio of permafrost soil,
K
6
- modification ratio of land at flood situation,
K
7 -
index.

Use of cadastral price of the square unit of Ulaanbaatar gher district land has been defined
as following:
Land compensation
Banking loan, security
City planning
Cadastre and private valuation
Official registration
Information supply
Taxation, payment, leasing
To be used for insurance etc.,

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Conclusion
1. The gher districts in the Ulaanbaatar were divided into 15 land valuation zones; price
of land for 1 sq meter when the zonal standard valuation has been defined fluctuated
between MNT 3300-121000 which indicates to the significant difference of the
present land price and the market price.
2. The mass or cadastral valuation serves as the most progressive method to establish the
basic land price meeting international standards. This is accepted by the highly
developed western countries where cadastral system is successfully developed as well
as by the countries of the former USSR community. This valuation needs to be
implemented in the official cadastral system of our country.
3. In studying the cadastral valuation suitable for the conditions of Mongolia we have
chosen as the surveying objects the specific conditions of Mongolia, the gher district
areas or land tenure designed for civil household usage.

List of reference materials and information
1. Automated Valuation Models in Belgium, Santiago de Compostela, 2006
2. Automated valuation models for mass valuation purpose in Latvia, Workshop,
Santiago de Compostela, 2006
3. Automated Valuation Models in Lithuania, Workshop, Santiago de Compostela, 2006
4. Barlowe Raleigh, Land Resources Economics, Michigan State University, New
Jersey, USA, 1978
5. Brown P.K and Hepworth.M, A study of European land tax systems, 2002
6. FAO soils bulletin, A framework for land evaluation, Rome, 1976
7. Gool Dennis van, Moore Geoff, Land evaluation standards for land resource
mapping, Australia, 1998
8. Groppy P, Land reform, 2003
9. Land administration in the unece region. United Nations. New York and Geneva,
2005
10. Land (Real Estate) Mass Valuation Systems for Taxation Purposes in Europe,
Produced and published by the Federal Land Cadastre Service of Russia on behalf of
the UN ECE Working Party on Land Administration, November 2001
11. Reform of the Italian cadastral valuation system, Santiago de Compostela, 2006

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OZONE MONITORING FOR RESULT OF OMI SYSTEM

TUMENBAYSGALAN Tsogtbaatar
1
and JAMBAJAMTS Lkhamjav
2

1
Department of Meteorology and Hydrology School of Earth Sceinses, National University of Mongolia, NUM
building 7
-304, Sukhbaatar, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
Mongolia; Tel: + 976-99685662, E-mail: tumee_5662@yahoo.com

O3 measurement is observed by means of OMI system's satellite data of NASA. O3
research was done in view of OMI satellite's 5 chapters and 11 parameters have 0.25
0
X0.25
0

grid are being compered together, also those against are being done cultivation with weather
data.
The ozone layer is a layer in Earth's atmosphere containing relatively high
concentrations of ozone (O
3
).. The ozone layer absorbs 9799% of the Sun's medium-
frequency ultraviolet light (from about 200 nm to 315 nm wavelength), which potentially
damages exposed life forms on Earth
The ozone is existed 70 to 80 km high that ball layer in atmosphere and it is changed
to cause by seasonal, height, configuration and location. Therefore ozone was researched.
Monitoring is observed by means of OMI system`s satellite data of NASA. O3 research was
done in view of OMI satellite`s ozone`s scatter and change date, longitude is latitude-time
Hoymoller diagram have 0.25
0
X0.25
0
grid are being compered together, also
those against are being done cultivation with weather data.
It`s OMI information is being executing on Giovanni program from AURA satellite
data of NASA and that was compared with data of GOES 5 satellite.
The Aura spacecraft was launched into a near polar, sun-synchronous orbit with a
period of approximately 100 minutes. The spacecraft repeats its ground track every 16 days
to provide atmospheric measurements over virtually every point on the Earth in a repeatable
pattern, permitting assessment of atmospheric phenomena changes in the same geographic
locations throughout the life of the mission. The Aura spacecraft is designed for a six-year
lifetime. The spacecraft orbits at 705 km in a sun-synchronous orbit (98o inclination) with a
1:45 PM 15 minute equator crossing time.
EOS Aura's Instruments, HIRDLS, MLS, OMI, and TES contain advancd
technologies that have been developed for use on environmental satellites. Each instrument
provides unique and complementary capabilities that will enable daily global observations of
Earth's atmospheric ozone layer, air quality, and key climate parameters. The OMI instrument
can distinguish between aerosol types, such as smoke, dust, and sulfates, and measures cloud
pressure and coverage, which provides data to derive tropospheric ozone.
OMI continues the TOMS record for total ozone and other atmospheric parameters related to
ozone chemistry and climate. OMI measurements are highly synergistic with the
otherinstruments on the Aura platform.

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NASA
AURA
GIOVANNI
OMI
GOES5
OpenGrads
MerraBrowser

Fig 1 Lat-Lon map of time-averaged differences
2012

Fig 2 Scatter plot 2012

Fig 3 Overlay of lat-lon maps 2012

Fig 4 Longitude-Time Hovmoller diagram 2012

Fig 5 Latitude-Time Hovmoller diagram 2012

Fig 6 Temperature 2012
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Fig 1-5 are executed by OMI system. Fig 6 is executed by Merra Browser.
There are Absorbing Aerosol Optical Thickness and Aerosol Optical Thickness, Aerosol
Single Scattering Albedo, Column Amount Ozone(TOMS), Column Amount Ozone(DOAS),
Radiative Cloud Fraction, Vertical Column Amount SO2 (PBL), NO2 Total Column Amount,
NO2 Total Column Amount (Cloud-Screened at 30%), NO2 Tropospheric Column Amount,
NO2 Tropospheric Column Amount (Cloud-Screened at 30% )compared together )

PBL Planetary Boundary Layer
TOMS Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer
DOAS Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy
OMI Ozone Monitoring

Conclusion
The model result of ozone determination is: In January, ozone measurement is the highest
and in July, ozone measurement is the lowest.
These index are being caused by temperature and humidity. The ozone overlay and
Hovmoller diagram are: In April, the maximum amount In October, the minimum amount.
Also ozone was became study available that is being counting auto correlation by
propagation.

Reference
. .(2010). .
Steven.J.Kempler .(1975).National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)
http://disc.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/

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USAGE OF GPS NETWORK IN IONOSPHERIC MEASUREMENT
Munkhdelger Tsend-Ayush
1
and Jambajamts Lkhamjav
2
1
Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, School of Earth Sciences, National University of Mongolia, NUM
building- 7, Sukhbaatar, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
Mongolia; Tel: 99728474, E-mail: Ts.muugii_8474@yahoo.com

KEY WORDS: radio wave, ionosphere, GPS, TEC (Total Electron Content)

Abstract
It was aimed to derive interruption of ionosphere,which is mostly affected the speed of radio wave. In
order to estimate refraction indexes, which is main parameter describes influence of ionosphere upon
radio wave propagation. I have applied carrier waves. If interruption of ionosphere estimates, we can
determine user's location correctly and it won't occur any communication problem.

Introduction
The ionosphere is that part of the upper atmosphere, where variation of free-electron
and ion concentration influence the propagation of electromagnetic waves. Passing through
ionosphere phase velocity of radio wave changes and a delay occurs. This delay is a reason
for mistake in determination of user position (navigation) and problems with communication.
The delay is proportional to the so-called Total Electron Content along the ray path. It is
assorted. So, impossible to give constant correction there.
The main goal of this work was to calculation delay of ionospheric layer there its
layer is most effective at velocity of GPS. The ionospheric delay is dispersive (frequency
dependent) and can be determined by observing both of the frequencies transmitted by the
GPS satellites (L1 & L2) using a dual-band GPS receiver. These ionospheric delays can be
eliminated without reference to observations recorded by other GPS receivers.

Methods
In order to calculation of ionospheric delay that used to data of L1 and L2 in 2012
from GPS-MET and used to calculate MATHCAD programming language. Then, total 8640
data calculated.
We can form an ionosphere free pseudorange by taking a linear combination to cancel the
effects which results in an ionospheric free pseudorange observable of:

Research
Global Positioning System is a location system based on a constellation of about 24
satellites orbiting the earth. It was first developed as application for military locating
purposes. Meanwhile now GPS is being used not only for non- military mapping but
scientific investigations as well.
Table 1. Positioning error contributions
GPS receivers, used for navigation
are mostly single-frequency. A
position fix obtained by use of
such receivers contains some
errors due to several sources
(Table 1).
Over the last several years
GPS observations are used to
derive information about
ionosphere variations according to
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its effect. The data we get varies from the difference between the two-frequency
measurements to the Total Electron Content (TEC) along the signal path between the GPS
satellite and the ground-based GPS receiver. The dual frequency GPS receivers can be also
used to monitor ionospheric scintillations, which are the rapid fluctuations of the phase and
intensity of a radio signal that has passed through the Earths ionosphere.
Ionosphere is an ionized part of upper atmosphere. It extends from 60 km to about
10000 km. By the top of ionosphere scientists sometimes meant an external part of Earth, but
there is no real boundary. Ionosphere is a certain discharged and weak ionized formation of
plasma which is situated in the Earths magnetic field and due to its high electro conductivity
appeared to have specific properties. By using them we can suggest radio wave and other
perturbations propagation in different layers of ionosphere.

Table 2. Main proporties of ionosphere layer
Main properties of
ionosphere layers you can
see in table 2. Such cleavage
of ionosphere can be
explained by sharp change of
formation conditions in
height.
Observed variations of
electron and ion
concentration in ionosphere
is a result of balance between the speed of their formation and speed of distraction due to 7
recombination. Ionization sources and processes of recombination in different layers are
different. Main source of ionization is short wave radiation. However, there are also such
important parts as corpuscular streams, galactic and sun space rays. Each type influences only
in some layers of height.
Some models try to account for all effects of the ionosphere, but require much effort
in modeling the highly time dependent total electron count of the atmosphere. A technique to
remove the first order effects of the ionosphere linearly combines the L1 and L2 observables
to form a new signal that is free of ionospheric effects. We can form an ionosphere free
pseudorange by taking a linear combination to cancel the effects which results in an
ionospheric free pseudorange observable of:

A similar development exists for the carrier phase observable. The expressions for the phase
derived pseudoranges with first order ionosphere corrections are:

Graphic 1. Ionospheric Delay in January 2012 Graphic 2. Ionospheric Delay in April 2012

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Graphic 3. Ionospheric Delay in July 2012 Graphic 4. Ionospheric Delay in October 2012

Graphic 5. Average proporties of Ionospheric Delay in 2012

Statistic of results

A
r
i
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h
m
e
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c

a
v
e
r
a
g
e

G
e
o
m
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t
r
i
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a
v
e
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a
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e

G
a
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m
o
n
i
c

a
v
e
r
a
g
e

D
i
s
p
e
r
s
i
o
n

V
a
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i
a
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c
e

M
e
d
i
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n

l
e
p
t
o
k
u
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t
o
s
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s

A
s
s
i
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e
t
e
r

January 619.580129 619.580125 619.58012 5.881*10^-3 0.077 619.574 0.06 0.115
February 619.699816 619.699804 619.69979 0.01521 0.123 619.681 1.311 0.986
March 619.638004 619.637996 619.637989 8.933*10^-3 0.095 619.624 1.448 0.92
April 619.614828 619.614824 619.614821 3.976*10^-3 0.063 619.618 5.782 -1.616
May 619.585603 619.585601 619.585599 2.646*10^-3 0.051 619.576 0.787 0.807
June 619.622053 619.622047 619.622042 7.133*10^-3 0.084 619.611 -0.428 0.754
July 619.613284 619.613278 619.613272 7.959*10^-3 0.089 619.624 -0.251 -0.255
August 619.638291 619.638289 619.638288 2.027*10^-3 0.045 619.629 7.511*
10^-3
-0.04
September 619.612911 619.612907 619.612904 4.337*10^-3 0.066 619.587 0.772 -0.313
October 619.580275 619.58027 619.580266 5.907*10^-3 0.077 619.573 0.07 0.136
November 619.535301 619.535298 619.535295 3.554*10^-3 0.06 619.539 -0.586 -0.343
December 619.648202 619.648195 619.648188 8.687*10^-3 0.093 619.673 -0.236 -0.303

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Discussion
There are 4 stations (ULAB, DALN,HOVD,CHOB) built on from 1995 to 2005 in
Mongolia and these stations observing ionosphere, troposphere and other researches. But its
access only network in ULAB. Thats using only astronomy and geophysics research station
for purpose to use in project. So, in my opinion need to build greatly station of resident and to
generate possibility of useful.
Based on the obtained results following discussions can be drawn:
- Use of GPS network for calculate ionospheric delay an average 619,6141MGHz in
2012.
- For observed graphics, thats January and December for high meaning and October
and November for low meaning. It is to connect with TEC dependent from variance
of season. This change to dependent from solar activity.
- Ionospheric delay is proportional to the so-called Total Electron Content (TEC) along
the ray path. So, I am considered for increase of electron density, to better
transmission of radio signal in GPS.
- We can use this usage program for calculating ionospheric delay of GPS observation,
which produced as the result of this research work.
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THE IMPACT OF FOREST FIRE ON FOREST COVER TYPES AND
FOREST COVER CHANGE

Battsetseg.T, Tsolmon.R
Remote sensing department of National Remote Sensing Center of Mongolia,
National University of Mongolia, International Laboratory for Space science and Remote Sensing,
baku_5@yahoo.com, tsolmon91@yahoo.com

KEY WORDS: VTCI, SPI, AI, LST, NDVI

Abstract
Mongolia is very vulnerable and harsh temperate climate. The natural disasters such as drought and
heavy snowfall states are often observed there.This paper presents detection of drought by calculating
the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Land Surface Temperature (LST) over the
Forest steppe High Mountain and Gobi Desert zones of Mongolia during the summer growing season
(April to October). Utilized data LST and NDVI was obtained long-term (11 years) datasets acquired
with the Terra-Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectoradiometer (MODIS). The approach is called
Vegetation Temperature Condition Index, which integrates land surface reflectance and thermal
properties. VTCI is lower for drought and higher for wet conditions. Furthermore, the ground-
measured precipitation and temperature data a study area covering parts of two zones of Mongolia,
which used to calculate the Standardized Precipitation Index and the Aridity Index.Finally, these
indices indicated thedrought years.

Introduction
Drought is a natural disaster that causes a significant amount of damage to the economy
and society. Drought usually occurs in dry, semi-dry and less moist areas.Mongolia is one of
the most arid countries in the world. The geography of Mongolia is varied, with the Gobi
desert to the south and with cold and mountainous regions to the north and west. Much of
Mongolia consists of steppes. Over Gobi Desert and Desert Steppe arid and semi aridregions
often occur the natural disasters such as drought and heavy snowfall states. Drought occurs
on an average of once every two or three years and the heavy snowfalls occurs every 5 to 6
years and once 2 to 3 years covering half and quarter of countrys territory, respectively
(Shiirevdamba, 1998). The United Nations Environment Program, (2004), suggests a
conceptual definition of drought, a prolonged and abnormally dry and hot period when there
is scarcity of water for the normal needs of the affected community or ecosystem. This
general definition was also modified to further develop definitions or specific types of
drought such as meteorological droughts, agricultural droughts, hydrological droughts and
socio-economical droughts (UNEP, 2004).
Depending on drought and precipitation levels, the condition of the vegetation cover in
the pasturelands will differ from year to year. According to a study, during drought years the
vegetation cover will diminish by 12-48% in high mountain areas and by 28-60% in the Gobi
and steppe regions. Global climate change affects the climate condition of Mongolia that now
has an increased intensity of dryness (L.Natsagdorj, D. Dagvadorj, and P.Gomboluudev).
Many remote sensing and based on meteorological station drought indices have been
using over the globe to monitor drought and in case of Mongolia the drought estimation
indices have been developed and applied, such as Remote Sensing Drought Index
(Bayasgalan, 2005) and Normalized Difference Drought Index (NDDI). Ground station data,
such as precipitation and land air temperature possess poor spatial resolution, especially in
remote regions with difficult access.
Thus I was testedVegetation Temperature Condition Index (VTCI) and based on the
meteorological indices for drought assessment. The prime objective of this study is to assess
the spatial occurrences of droughts over the Desert Gobi and Forest steppe High mountain
zones of Mongolia.
Sub-objectives of the research:
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To compute the vegetation temperature condition index (VTCI)
To compute the standardized precipitation index (SPI)
To compute the aridity index (AI)
To analyze the differences between VTCI values retrieved from remotely sensed data
and observing soil moisture data
To assess the drought of Mongolia

Climate discription of the study area
Mongolia is situated in the central part of the Asia. The country is bounded on the north
by Russia and on the east, south and west by China. Mongolia is a land-locked country which
covers an area of 1.5 million square kilometers on the southernmost fringe of the Great
Siberian boreal forest and the northernmost Central Asian deserts and vast steppes. Mongolia
can be divided into six natural zones (UNDP, 1998). These zones differ from each other on
the basis of their soil quality, plant and animal species.

Figure1. Natural zones of Mongolia Figure2.Integrated two different zones in this study

Climate:Mongolian climate is characterized by long and cold winters, dry and hot
summers, low precipitation, high temperature fluctuations, and a relatively high number of
sunny days (an average of 260) per year. The average mean air temperature in the warmest
month is 15-20C in the north, and 20-25C in the south of Mongolia. In the Gobi Desert and
Steppe zones, the summer continues over 3 months. The maximum summer air temperature
can reach anywhere 35-39C in the north and 38-41C in the south. In many areas throughout
the country, snow cover in winter is very light, so soils are completely frozen in the winter
(Chuluun and Ojima, 2002). The total annual precipitation in mountainous regions averages
to about 400mm, in the steppe 150-250mm and in the desert-steppe less than 100mm. The
number of rainy days decreases from north to south.
Zone Vegetation type
Area
(million km
2
)
Percent of
total area
Desert Largely unvegetated 0.297 19%
Desert Steppe
Short grass prairie with sparse shrubs and
scattered small trees
0.329 21%
Steppe Tall grass prairie with a significant for component 0.407 26%
Forest steppe
Mixed forests on northerly slopes and grasslands
on southerly slopes.
0.125 8%
Boreal forest
Coniferous forests with a variable broad leafed
component
0.063 4%
Mountain
Mixed sub-alpine coniferous forests, alpine
meadows and tundra.
0.344 22%
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Table1. Information of zones (UNEP and MNE, 2002)
Soils: Mongolian soil is divided two soil-bio-climate regions: northern and southern,
belonging to special regions of Central Asia. The northern mountainous region is generally
characterized by dark brown and brown soils. Because the quality of the soil is good, this
region harbours twice or three times the number of species as comparatively found in the
Gobi desert region. The southern, southwestern and western parts of the country contain light
chestnut, light grey and grey steppe soils (UNDP, 1998).
Water: Mongolia has comparatively high levels of surface and ground water recourses.
The southern, central and southwestern parts of the country have few rivers and other water
recourses and they are usually situated in depressions without any outflows. Mongolia has 3
811 rivers and streams with a total length of 67 000km, over 3 000 big and small lakes with a
total volume of 500 cubic kilometers, about 6 900 springs with steady flows, over 190
glaciers with a total size of about 540 square kilometers and over 250 mineral water springs
which form specific water ecosystems.

Materials and methodology

Data Collection and data processing
Table 2.Used data

Figure3. Data processing of drought assessment
Remote sensing data Year Information
Land Surface Temperature(LST-8day) 2000-2010
MODIS/TERRA

Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI-16day) 2000-2010 MODIS/TERRA
Vectors 1:500.000
Ground observed data Year Information
Precipitation(P) 2000-2010 111 meteorological stations
Temperature (T) 2000-2010 111 meteorological stations
Soil Moisture (SM) 2004-2009
5 measured points

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Used software and data sources:
- ENVI/IDL, ArcGiS
- Origin Pro, Microsoft Office
- http://ladsweb.nascom.nasa.gov/data/
- Meteorological Institute of Mongolia

Vegetation temperature condition index (VTCI ) definition
Vegetation temperature condition index is defined as:
=
.
(1)
where:
.
= +
.
= + (2)
Where
.
and
.
are maximum and minimum temperature for a given
NDVI.
is the remotely sensed data derived surface temperature at a given pixel for
a given NDVI. The coefficients a, b, a and b are estimated from the scatter plot of LST and
NDVI in the area. The shape of the scatter plot is normally triangular at a regional scale
(Gillieset al. 1997, Wang et al.2001) if the study area is large enough to provide a wide range
of NDVI and surface moisture conditions. It can be physically explained as the ratio of
temperature differences among the pixels (figure1). The numerator of equation (1) is the
difference between maximum and minimum LSTs of the pixels. In figure4, LSTmax can be
regarded as the dry edge where there is less soil moisture availability and plants are under dry
conditions; LSTmin can be regarded as the wet edge where there is no water restriction for
plant growth (Gillieset al. 1997, Wang et al.2001). The value of VTCI ranges from 0 to 1; the
lower the value of VTCI is the higher occurrence of drought.

Figure4. The physical interpretation of VTCI

Standardized Precipitation I ndex (SPI ) definition
The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was designed by McKee et al. (1993) to
quantify precipitation deficit for multiple time scales which 1, 3, 6 and 12 months. These time
scales reflect different water recourses. The SPI is defined for each of the above time scales
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as the difference between monthly precipitation on 1, 3, 6 and 12 months time scale (
) and
the mean value ( ), divided by the standard deviation (s),
=
(4)
Where
is the monthly rainfall amount and , are the mean and standard deviation of
rainfall calculated from the whole time series of monthly values. According to Edwards and
McKee (1997) values less than -2.0 (extreme drought) are expected to appear 2 to 3 times in
100 years. In the present study the classification of McKee et al. (1995) and Komuscu (1999)
was used to estimate condition.
Table3. Classification scale for the SPI values
SPI Probability of occurrence
Komuscu (1999) and McKee et
al. (1995)drought classes
Agnew (2000)
drought classes
Less than -2.00 0.023 Extreme drought
Less than -1.65 0.050 Extreme drought
Less than -1.50 0.067 Severe drought
Less than -1.28 0.100 Severe drought
Less than -1.00 Moderate drought
Less than -0.84 0.201 Moderate drought
Less than -0.50 0.309 No drought
Less than -0.00 0.5 Mild drought No drought

Aridity I ndex (AI ) definition
Many indices have been proposed to quantify of dryness of a climate at a given location.
Aridity index indicates meteorological drought. Meteorological drought is the cause of other
drought types such as hydrological drought, agricultural drought and socio-economic drought
(Shi et al. 2007).It refers to an unusual water deficit resulting from inter-annual or seasonal
variation in various weather factors (e.g. precipitation and air temperature). Aridity index is
an indicator to describe the aridity or humidity. It has been frequently used in studies of
global change, especially aridity and desertification (Menget al. 2004). A lot of aridity
indices have been developed since 1900. In this study selected Martonne aridity index (
)
which could represent monthly aridity. This index was designed by De Martonne in 1926
(Livada and Assimakopoulos 2007) and is described by the following equation:
=
+10
(5)
Where, P (cm) is the annual precipitation and T (C) is the annual mean temperature. The
equation is appropriate for temperatures greater than -9.9C. The De Martonne aridity index
decreases with increasing aridity.
Table4. UNESCO (1979) Aridity classification
Classification Aridity Index
Hyper arid AI<0.03
Arid 0.03<AI<0.20
Semi-arid 0.20<AI<0.50
Dry sub humid 0.50<AI<0.65

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Research results
Precipitation in past 10 years for 2 zones

Figure5.
2001, 2002 and 2009 are greatly affected by drought especially in Desert Gobi zone,
but from the total precipitation in growing season, we cannot extract drought
accordingly, therefore, we separate the precipitation and other analysis into three
seasons to extract seasonal drought.

Figure 6 (a) Desert Gobi zone (b) Forest steppe and High mountain zones

An average seasonal precipitation of two zones is low. Especially in Desert Gobi zones
2001, 2002 and 2009 years are very low. 2003 year is higher than other years.
Forest steppe and High Mountain zones also 2002 year is low precipitation.About 85 to
90 percent of the precipitation falls during the three summer months (Shiirevdamba,
1998).

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Vegetation temperature condition index (VTCI ) in two zones in from 2000 to 2010

An average of seasonal vegetation temperature condition index (VTCI) of two zones

Figure7 (a) Desert Gobi zone (b) Forest steppe and High mountain zones

From this two figures:
- Mongolia was dry in from 2000 to 2010
- The VTCI range is from 0 to 1. In the from 2000 to 2010 years value of VTCI
was generally low in two zones . It was indicated occurred drought in
Mongolia.

Vegetation Temperature Condition Index (VTCI) 2003 and 2009 year

Figure 8. (a) Desert Gobi zone (b) Forest steppe and High mountain zones

Figure 9 (a) Desert Gobi zone (b) Forest steppe and High mountain zones

Descriptive statistics on precipitation and standardized precipitation index (SPI )
Average seasonal SPI of two zones
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From 10(a) figure:
- 2009 is affected by drought, the summer is drier than other years (spring
10.0mm, summer 39.7mm, autumn 10.2mm, total is 59.9mm)
- 2001 and 2002 are very dry years, especially in the summer time
- 2003 is very wet year
From 10(b) figure:
- Every years generally very dry
- 2002 is very dry year, mainly because of low precipitation in summer
(106.5mm, total is 170.9);
- 2003 is a wet year (spring 44.8, summer 162.4, autumn 34.7. total 242.0mm)

Figure11.
After comparing SPI, there is coincidence and difference of SPI in two zones:
- 2003 is wet year in two zones
- 2002 is dry year in two zones
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- Special difference: 2009 in not dry in Forest steppe and High Mountain zones,
but 2009 in very dry in Desert Gobi zone; 2010 also quite different

Results of Aridity I ndex (AI ) in two different zones
Average Aridity Index (AI) of two zones


From 12(a) figure:
- From 2000 to 2010 years are generally dry in the Desert Gobi zone
- Especially 2001, 2002 and 2009 years are very dry, 2003 year is wet year in the
Desert Gobi zone
From 12(b) figure, we can know:
- 2002 year is dry year in the Forest Steppe and High Mountain zones
- In this zone generally wet.

Figure13

According to theAridity classification of UNESCO (1979) (table3) the value which is lower
than 0.03 is classified as hyper dry and value from 0.03 to 0.2 dry. In Desert Gobi zone
every year is dry especially 2001, 2002 and 2009 years are hyper dry in summer time. The
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value of Aridity Index (AI) of Forest steppe and High Mountain zones is higher than Desert
Gobi zone. However, this zone is also dry. The year 2003 is wetter than others in two zones.

Conclusion
The present research monitored the drought condition in Mongolia. The data obtained for
analysis was divided into two different zones, Desert Gobi and Forest Steppe High
Mountain zones. The study utilized different three indices such as VTCI, SPI and AI. The
value of these indices was very low which indicates a drought condition in from 2000 to
2010. The year 2001, 2002 and 2009 are affected by drought in two zones, while only
year2003 was a non - drought.

References
- Bayarjargal Y., et al. 2006. A comparative study of NOAA-AVHRR derived drought
indices using change vector analysis. Remote Sensing of Environment 105, pp 9-22.
- Donglian Sun., MenasKafatos. 2007. Note on the NDVI-LST relationship and the use
of temperature-related drought indices over North America. Geophysical research
letters, vol. 34, L24406, doi: 10.1029/2007GL031485.
- Wan Z., Wang P., Li X. 2004. Using MODIS Land Surface Temperature and
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index products for monitoring drought in the
southern Great Plains, USA. INT. J. REMOTE SENSING, vol. 25, NO. 1, pp 61-72.
- Yang X., Wu J.J., Shi P.J., Yan F., 2006. Modified triangle method to estimate soil
moisture status with moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS)
products. Program, China (2006BAD20B02)
- Caccamo G., Chisholm L.A., Bradstock R.A., Puotinen M.L. 2011. Assessing the
sensitivity of MODIS to monitor drought in high biomass ecosystems. Remote
Sensing of Environment 115, pp 2626-2639.
- ZHANG Jinhua., JIANG Luguang., FENG Zhiming., LI Peng. 2012. Detecting effects
of the recent drought on vegetation in Southern China. Journal of Resources and
Ecology. 2012 3 (1) 0 pp 043-049, doi:10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.
- ARNON Karnieli., et al. 2009. Use of NDVI and Land Surface Temperature for
Drought assessment: Merits and Limitations. Journal of climate, vol 23, doi:
10.1175/2009JCLI2900.1.
- Goldammer, J.G., Fire situation in Mongolia. International Forest Fire News No. 36,
2007. pp 46-66.
- Bayarjargal Yu., AdyasurenTs.,Munkhtuya Sh. ACRS2000. Drought and Vegetation
Monitoring in the Arid and Semi-Arid Regions of the Mongolia using Remote
Sensing and Ground data.
- LivadaI., and Assimakopoulos V.D. 2007. Spatial and temporal analysis of drought in
Greece using the Standarduzed Precipitation Index (SPI). Thear.Apll. Climatol. 89, pp
143.153. Doi10.1007/s00704-005-0227-z. Netherlands.
- DamdinDagvadorj., Rogelio Z. Aldover., Anna Stabrawa. Mongolia: Assessment
Report on Climate Change 2009, Ministry of Environment, Nature and Tourism,
Mongolia ISBN: 978-99929-93403-X
- Natsagdorj L., Dagvadorj D. 2010. Adaptation of Climate Change. ISBN: 978-99929-
93403-X
- SiirevdambaTs., 1998. Biological Diversity in Mongolia, First National Repirt,
Ministry for Nature and the Environment, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, pp 106.
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- Maliva R., Missimer T. Arid Lands Water Evaluation and Management,
Environmental Science and Engineering, DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-29104-3_2,
Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2012.
- Chuluun T., Ojima D. 2002. Land use change and carbon cycle in arid and semi-arid
lands of east and central Asia. Science in China, Life Sciences Series C, No. 45
Supp., pp. 48-56.
- Natsagdorj.,Dagvadorj., Gonboluudev P. 1998. Climate change in Mongolia and its
future trend. A sciebtific Organization of Meteorological Institute, No. 20,
Ulaanbaatar, pp.114-133.

GEOLOGICAL MAPPING USES LANDSAT 4-5TM SATTELITE DATA

Undram G
4
,

Tsolmon Renchin
1
, B.Bayartungalag
2
, S.Norovsuren
3
1,2,4
National University of Mongolia,
3
General geologist
NUM-ITC-UNESCO Laboratory for Remote Sensing and GIS,
Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
E-mail: lilo_aamay@yahoo.com
4
, tsolmon@num.edu.mn
1
, b_tungalag_b@yahoo.com
2
, n_norovs@yahoo.com
3

KEY WORDS: geology, mineral resources, fracture, structure, lithology

Abstract
Geological map is most important map for mining when it does exploration job. In Mongolia
geological map completed by Russian geologists which used ancient technology. Those maps don't
satisfy for present requirement. Thus we want to study improve geological map which include fracture,
structural map and lithology uses Landsat TM4-5 satellite data. If we can produce geological map from
satellite data with more specification then geologist can explain or read mineralogy very easily. We
searched all methodology and researches of every single elements of geological mapping. Then we
used 3 different remote sensing methodologies to produce structural and lithology and fracture map
used with geographic information systems softwares. There can be found visible lithology border
improvement and understandable structural map and we found fracture of Russian geological map has
a lot of distortion.
Result of research geologist can read mineralogy elements very easy and discovered 3 unfound
important elements from satellite image.

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