Aviation Week & Space Technology - January 6 2014

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DEPARTMENTS
10 Feedback
14 The World
15 Up Front
16 Airline Intel
151 Classied
152 Contact Us
153 Aerospace Calendar
THE WORLD
14 Taxiway incident at Johannesburgs
Tambo International underscores
industry-wide problem
DEFENSE
18 Rand report on F-35 program costs
draws Lockheed Martin rejoinder
that outdated data were used
19 EU leaders agree to greater defense
cooperation in theory, but common
capabilities seem far from a reality
22 Modernization of French army air
corps is underway with handover
of helos to operational unit
SPACE
24 A closer look at development of
Chinas powerful variable-thrust
engine for Change 3 spacecraft
24 Gaias star-mapping mission brings
scientists closer to gaining deeper
understanding of the Milky Way
ROTORCRAFT
26 Eurocopter advises checks of fuel-
system alert devices on EC135s
following recent crash ndings
AIR TRANSPORT
28 Avics MA700 turboprop enters
full-scale development phase with
a signicantly revised design
30 Asian low-cost carriers stake
long-haul claims with big eet
moves and startup plans
AEROSPACE 2014
32 On divergent paths, commercial
and defense markets face similar
demands on program performance
33 From ghter competitions to the
growing demand for high-through-
put satcoms, 2014 will be a busy year
WATCHPOINTS FOR 2014
34 Here are 12 areas to watch as 2014
looks certain to be a pivotal
year for aerospace and defense
DEFENSE & SECURITY
38 Global map and index show the
wide variety of conicts within
and between countries and regions
40 Tensions in Asia are reminding
many observers of machinations
that preceded previous industrial-
age wars
DEFENSE PROFILES
42 A last-minute budget deal will re-
lieve some pressure on U.S. defense
budget, but not structural problems
44 Canadas armed forces also sufer
from a lack of condence in
the nations acquisition process
46 EU defense spending has hit 1.55% of
GDP and 3.17% of total government
expenditure, lowest levels since 06
47 U.K. likely to be more focused on
Afghan drawdown in 2014
than extending its capabilities
48 Budget pressures forcing France to
to slow receipt of military equip-
ment, stretch program development
Aviation Week editors annual look at the year ahead features
sector-by-sector analyses in this issue and deep data online.
Among the coming milestones in 2014 are additional tests for
the Northrop Grumman X-47B.
32
After a year of heavy order-taking in commercial aviation and with
steep cuts looming in defense spending, execution of programs will be piv-
otal in 2014. Development and production of new airliners must hit their
targets, and defense and space programs must stay on track if industry is
to deliver on its promises. That is the theme of Aerospace & Defense 2014,
with its expanded analysis of global security concerns, defense programs
and commercial aviation. We also look at business aircraft, rotorcraft,
spaceight and demand for maintenance, repair and overhaul services.
Additional content at AviationWeek.com/Aerospace 2014. Cover design by
Aviation Week Art Department.
ON THE COVER
32
AVIATION WEEK
4 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/DECEMBER 30, 2013/JANUARY 6, 2014 AviationWeek.com/awst
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Contents
December 30, 2013/January 6, 2014 Volume 175 Number 45

The Boeing 702SP satellite is the rst and
only all-electric satellite, a game-changing
technological leap. The all-electric propulsion
system dramatically reduces spacecraft weight,
creating more affordable launch options as well
as the opportunity to add additional payload in
the 3-8kW range. Two 702SP satellites can even
be stacked on a single launch to reduce costs
further. Now, thats the power of innovation.

AIR TRANSPORT PROFILES
98 With all of the Big Three mergers
approved, U.S. majors must
make 2014 the year of integration
102 Europes low-cost carriers
expect better 2014, but legacy
airlines continue to struggle
106 Asia-Pacic low-cost carrier
sector still in rapid development;
but some majors are struggling
108 There are signs of turnaround
ahead for the Indian aviation
sector after years of turbulence
110 The three big Middle East
airlines will have access to signif-
icantly improved infrastructure
112 Impressive growth, huge steps
in quality and safety help turn
around Latin American airlines
114 Russian air transport industry
will exceed Soviet-era passenger
totals for the rst time in 2014
115 Global air cargo industry is in
deep trouble and will need
years to recover, if it can at all
116 Milestones beckon as major
programs use satellite-based
ATM systems to expand coverage
BUSINESS AVIATION
119 Business aircraft makers plan wave
of new products for market still
recovering 2008 economic crisis
MAINTENANCE
125 AWIN 2014 Commercial Fleet and
MRO Forecast projects commercial
MRO at $51.9 billion in 2014
126 Airframe MRO market, including
heavy checks and mods, will
be worth about $17.5 billion in 2014
130 Analysts tracking commercial
aircraft turbine engine MRO market
see a growth period in 2014-23
49 Russia does not plan to cut its
military expenditures, even in
the face of economic stagnation
50 German spending on international
deployments is falling, as are
military personnel expenditures
51 Across Europe, nations are taking
innovative approaches to
foster home defense industries
despite budgets
52 Middle East nations are going
beyond new combat aircraft
and weapons, seeking ISR and
other assets
52 Israel obliged to buy much of
its military hardware in U.S.,
spends small portion on domestic
procurement
54 Larger Chinese defense budgets
funding aggressive modernization,
so PLA can strengthen regionally
56 Japanese military focus areas
remain the islands facing
China, ballistic missile defense vs.
North Korea
56 About 30% of South Koreas
defense budget is investment in
new equipment; rest is for ops
and support
57 Indias defense budget for 2013-14
shows a more modest expansion,
reecting slower economic growth
57 Asia-Pacic nations expect
to spend about $1.4 trillion on
military programs in 2013-18
DEFENSE SYSTEMS
58 F-35 continues to dominate global
ghter market, but rivals are
continuing with upgrade plans
62 Special missions an increasingly
important adaptive role for
armed forces transport aircraft
66 Competition growing as China
and new systems shake up the
$65.4 billion missile market
66 U.S. Missile Defense Agency hopes
to conduct a successful ight test
of ground-based systems in 2014
68 As the U.S. looks for export
markets, Europe plays catch-up in
unmanned systems development
AEROSPACE SYSTEMS
72 Robinson R66s success has gal-
vanized rotorcrafts key players to
take new look at single turbines
74 U.S. Army to select among four
competing designs for two
tiltrotors and two coaxial rotors
for pair of helos
75 Massive civil orders and a grow-
ing military sustainment form
the focus for engine makers
TOP TECHNOLOGIES
78 Digital night vision and passive
precision targeting among
defense and space technologies
to watch in 2014
121 Touchscreen cockpits, combined
vision among technologies
that could make news in 2014
SPACE SYSTEMS
83 Successful launch of the SES-8 sat-
com by SpaceX could signal seismic
shift in the launch-vehicle market
86 Growth in high-throughput satel-
lites is considered a signicant
development in the industry
COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT
91 Major new aircraft programs
are about to reach certication
in 2014, while others advance
96 New single-aisle airliners
being developed seem
anti-climactic after 787
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LETTER FROM THE EDITOR
and asks: What can we do to
further improve the product?
78 72
134 January 2020 deadline for
ADS-B is high on the to-do list for
maintenance shop visits even now
136 MRO trends: OEMs entrench further
into aftermarket as independents
become more innovative
138 Wearable computing devices
promise many of the benets
of tablets, but with hands-free
operation
141 From security to new ratings,
U.S. repair stations face TSA
several rule changes in 2014
143 Companies offer avionics
maintenance and operational
solutions to cockpit issues
144 Kits and other pieces of test-
ing equipment help customers
detect leaks and other problems
December 30, 2013/January 6, 2014 Volume 175 Number 45
AviationWeek.com
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TRAINING, TRAINING, TRAINING
Factors contributing to the re-
jected landing/go-around issue are
several, as touched upon in What
Goes Around (AW&ST Nov. 11/18,
p. 44). In my air carrier experience,
I found the FAA Advanced Quali-
cation Program (AQP) a suspect
contributor to decient line per-
formance in, at least, the rejected
landing and takeof events.
Air carrier AQP certication al-
without brieng or training, competency is determined by the mechanical ac-
complishment of the maneuver. The environments are sterile and occurrences
predictable. Absent is the scenario of fatigued pilots ying in wind and turbu-
lence, vectored and tossed onto the approach with Air Trafc Control-imposed
speed control and congested radio frequencies, all the while burning into book-
value fuel reserves.
The focus is worthy, but myopic. Momentary instability, dened by committee,
that requires approach abandonment in favor of another try in the same condi-
tionsbut with less fuelis inappropriate. Clearly, we dont train for the real
world.
AQP preempts training. Of course, if we ew as trained, the system would
stop.
Capt. (ret.) C. D. Zwingle
American Airlines
BURLINGAME, CALIF.
TRAINING UNDERSCORED
Murky Mode (AW&ST Dec. 16, p. 37) brought to mind a procedure we used
back when I was ying the Boeing 737NG with an autopilot similar (in operation,
at least) to that on the 777.
It was company policy (and, I assumed, an industry standard) that any time
we were ying with the autopilot of, the autothrottles had to be turned of
(except for takeof). This policy was intended to, and could have helped, prevent
a situation such as that of the Asiana Airlines Flight 214 crash at San Francisco
International Airport on July 6.
Capt. (ret.) Terry Mason
Alaska Airlines
NORMANDY PARK, WASH.
FALSE ANALOGIES?
In the Up Front Column Flying
Over the Horizon (AW&ST Nov. 4,
p. 12) Jim Mathewss insightful analy-
sis describes the shift toward two-en-
gine aircraft for long-haul routes and
away from four engines. However, to-
ward the end of the article he relates
the number of Airbus A380s as a
proportion of population by country
(90 A380s for 2 million people in
Dubai, versus 314 million Americans
and no A380s, and China with a
populace of 1.34 billion and ve A380s)
as a way to further substantiate his
analysis. This leaves me perplexed.
How can two unrelated variables
indicate that a certain type of aircraft
will or will not be in demand? The vast
majority of U.S. air travel is domestic
FOUR-ENGINE DEBATE CONTINUES
You do not have to be an accountant
to want to put reader Myron Kaytons
views into context (AW&ST Dec. 2,
p. 10). Accountants are messen-
gersnot decision makers. However,
accountants rarely count all the values
related to risk and return and instead
analyze and report what is easily con-
verted into nancial numbers. If more
of the real, expected outcomes were
faithfully tallied, the cost of higher-
risk endeavors such as twin-engine
long-haul ights over water or desolate
areas could be much diferent.
Thomas Brehmer
ESSEN, GERMANY
ADVOCATING FOR THE A-10
I enjoyed Bill Sweetmans recent
Commanders Intent commentary,
Making Bacon, about Warthogs on
the chopping block (AW&ST Dec. 9,
p. 15). I spent four years ying the Hog
and six ying the F-16 and, while it is
a magnicent aircraft, the F-16 (read
F-35) cannot replace the A-10 on the
battleeld.
The decision-makers Sweetman
refers to should step away from their
desks and talk to the grunts whose
lives depend upon close air support. I
know what aircraft the man in the fox
hole would prefer.
Michael Bennett
GLENDALE, ARIZ.
SCEPTICAL ABOUT SNP WISH LIST
Upon rst reading Saltire Desires
about an independent Scottish defense
force (AW&ST Dec. 9, p. 34), I thought
it was a joke. Then I realized that the
Scottish National Party (SNP) has
simply joined the long list of those who
have allowed nationalistic fervor to
blind them to economic reality.
Perhaps they would like to buy my
40-year-old Scottish Aviation Bulldog
T.1 to serve as their light-attack and
counterinsurgency contribution to
NATO.
Bernard Robertson
BLOOMFIELD HILLS, MICH.
Aviation Week & Space Technology welcomes
the opinions of its readers on issues raised in
the magazine. Address letters to the Executive
Editor, Aviation Week & Space Technology,
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withheld. We reserve the right to edit letters.
and not on widebodies. The majority
of 4,000-plus twin-engine Airbus and
Boeing aircraft in use are single-aisle,
short/medium haul. So not only are
there no A380s, the proportion of 747s
as a proportion of the population and
overall eet size is small.
Air travel and eet distribution of
aircraft are a much more complicated
dynamic, and the native population of
a country is the least relevant variable
to make that point.
Other factors will take precedence:
Location on the planet, business model
of airlines operating in the country,
economic engine of the economy and
demographics of population around
the region are much more important.
Taimur Khan
RESTON, VA.
Feedback
lows reduced training frequency. It employs the rst-look concept by which,

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Y O U R F L I G H T I S O U R M I S S I O N

naval power of neighboring China.
The Indian navy has been lobbying the
government to clear the Barak missile
purchase because it needs to resup-
ply its Barak anti-missile defense-
system-equipped warships. The
proposal to buy 262 missilesbuilt
by Rafael Advanced Defense Systems
at a cost of 8.8 billion rupees ($142
million)was approved by the defense
acquisition council, headed by Defense
Minister A.K. Antony on Dec. 23. The
supersonic Barak has range of around
44 mi. A deal for purchasing Barak
systems and missiles was signed in
2000, but acquisition plans were put
on hold following a bribery scandal
and investigation that has recently
been resolved.
South Korea, BAE F-16 Deal
BAE Systems and South Korea have
reached a nal agreement on an up-
grade program for 134 KF-16 ghters,
which will be tted with a Raytheon
active, electronically scanned array
ROTORCRAFT
EC175 Pushed in Asia
With certication of Eurocopters
new EC175 expected early next year,
the manufacturer is working to build
interest in the helicopter in the Asian
region. Eurocopter has 48 orders for
the EC175, predominantly from oil
and gas industry operators with a few
orders for the VIP version. Despite
a lack of orders from Asia, there
are a lot of ongoing discussions
with operators in this region, says a
company executive. Overall, the EC175
orderbook is as strong as Eurocopter
expected at this point in the program,
the company says. It is expected to
gain certication in early 2014, and
deliveries to the rst three customers
are likely to occur in the second half
of the year. Meanwhile, the EC145 T2
is expected to gain certication in the
second quarter of 2014. This heli-
copter is also available in a military
version, and Eurocopter has received
an order for 16 aircraft for Germanys
special forces.
AIR TRANSPORT
777-9Xs for Cathay Pacific
Hong Kongs Cathay Pacic has
ordered 21 Boeing 777-9Xs for delivery
in 2021-24, seeing the type as ideal for
heavily trafcked routes to Europe
and North America. Cathay will be a
very early operator of the huge Boeing
twinjet, which was launched into full-
scale development in November and
is due to enter service in 2020. The
aircrafts operating range of at least
8,200 nm (15,185 km) makes it well
suited for Cathay Pacics ultra-long-
haul network, the airline says, citing a
catalog price for the order of HKG$58
billion ($7.48 billion). Cathay now has
89 aircraft on order for delivery from
2014-24 and with a combined catalog
value of HKG$215 billion. They include
48 Airbus A350s, among which are
26 A350-1000s. The Airbus type is
smaller than the 777-9X but still its
nearest competitor.
DEFENSE
India To Buy Israeli Missiles
India will soon buy from Israel an
additional 262 Barak-I anti-aircraft
missiles for the navy, as part of an
apparent bid to counter the growing
radars, new mission computers and
new cockpit displays. The company
has set up a new unit at Alliance Air-
port, near Fort Worth, to run the KF-
16 ghter updates and to pursue up-
date programs for the F-16, F-15 and
F/A-18. About 300 people are expect-
ed to be employed there by the end
of 2014. The rst of a group of South
Korean air force F-16s will arrive in
2014 to start modications for the test
program, alongside a large corporate
jet that will act as a ying testbed.
F-16 ight tests are due in 2016. BAE
Systems estimates that 1,000 F-16s
worldwide are upgrade candidates.
The competing USAF/Lockheed Mar-
tin Combat Avionics Programmed Ex-
tension Suite upgrade program, using
a Northrop Grumman radar, is not yet
fully funded and may be vulnerable
to budget cuts. Singapore has said an
F-16 upgrade is a higher priority than
an order for F-35 Joint Strike Fight-
ers, and Turkey is considered another
important target.
The World
For more breaking news, go to AviationWeek.com
Tambo International Taxiway Incident
Underscores Industry-Wide Problem
The South African Civil Aviation Authority (SACAA) says the crew of a British Airways Boeing
747-400 (G-BNLL) taxiing for takeoff on Runway 3 Left at Johannesburgs Tambo Interna-
tional Airport at night on Dec. 22 was given the proper instructions before the aircrafts
right wing struck the second story of a building. The London-bound 747, with 185 passen-
gers and 17 crew, was cleared to the takeoff position using taxiway Bravo, which intersects
the narrower taxilane Mike near the runway threshold. The crew mistakenly exited Bravo
onto taxilane Mike before striking the building. A caution note on the ground movement
chart for Tambo alerts pilot to the presence of taxilane Mike. Four ground-handling employ-
ees were injured by debris as the winglet and outboard section of the 747s wing sliced
through the brick structure, causing substantial damage to both the wing and the building.
No injuries were reported for the passengers and crew, who exited the aircraft through a
door. The accident highlights the substantial problem the airline industry faces with ramp
and taxiway damage. Flight Safety Foundation states there are approximately 27,000 ramp
accidents or incidents per year worldwideone for every 1,000 departurescausing an
estimated $10 billion a year in damage, injuries and aircraft downtime.

Up Front
COMMENTARY
Yet the past few months have seen
stark harbingers of looming pain. In
September, right after Boeing delivered
the 223rd and nal U.S. Air Force C-17,
the company announced the line would
close in 2015. A month later, South Ko-
rea rejected the Boeing F-15 for its F-X 3
competition, dooming the proposed Si-
lent Eagle variant and probably killing
the line after the last of Saudi Arabias
current order is delivered in 2018.
In December, the Boeing F/A-18E/F
lost the Brazilian FX-2 competition, one
of several key international defeats. A
pre-solicitation announcement for 36
additional Super Hornets in scal 2015,
placed by the Navy at the FedBizOpps.
gov website in October, was withdrawn
several days later, probably under pres-
sure from the Defense Department.
The last Super Hornet is scheduled to
be delivered in 2016, and Boeing said it
must decide this March whether it will
preserve the line with company funding.
The problem is not conned to Boe-
ings legacy programs. Lockheed Martin,
which delivered the last F-22 last year,
says its F-16 backlog only takes produc-
tion through mid 2017. Beechcrafts
last T-6 is slated for delivery in 2016.
Bell-Boeings V-22 program will expire
R
emember the Last Supper? This wave of 1990s defense com-
pany mergers was intended to solve the industrys post-Cold
War overcapacity problem. If overcapacity is measured in corpo-
rate names or headquarters staf, then mission accomplished.
Unfortunately, overcapacity is best measured in factories and
programs, and aside from Grummans F-14 and Northrops B-2,
no active military aircraft lines were terminated in the 1990s.
Whether through reinvention or exports, most lines stayed alive.
Program Preservation
Disaster For U.S. military aircraft industry?
C-130s in constant demand but with no
replacements in sight.
Today, the C-17 line is closing just as
the U.S. is pivoting its forces toward
Asia. This means the country will need
greater strategic mobility just as it is
killing its only strategic airlifter, with
no funding in sight for a replacement.
The faction of the Navy that wants to
continue Super Hornet procurement
is also mindful of the risk of killing the
old before the new F-35C has proven
itself for carrier operations.
Given the challenging top-line defense
budget outlook, little can be done to save
more than one or two of these programs,
if any. But what is more important, the
U.S. can change the way it manages
aircraft programs. Today, the entire sys-
tem is geared toward racing programs
through at the fastest possible pace. The
services are incentivized to spend money
when budgets are good, and to focus on
lower unit costs through greater produc-
tion volume. Companies are motivated to
bring in revenues and prots, lawmakers
to bring jobs to their districts.
These are understandable motiva-
tions, but they neglect the need to pre-
serve industrial assets. The alternative is
to tolerate slightly higher unit costs (and
greater risk of being caught by a top-line
budget down-cycle) to make programs
last longer. Rather than procuring 48
planes per year for 10 years, why not 36
per year for 13 years? Why not use ex-
port orders to stretch out domestic buys,
rather than as an opportunity to raise
production rates? The Defense Depart-
ment needs to stretch procurement at
the expense of program economics.
A belated move toward prioritizing
industrial-base concerns in procurement
will be welcome for the next generation
of programs. But for this decade, the
industry will see factory closures and
thousands of layofs, along with the loss
of national defense assets. The real post-
Cold-War day of reckoning for military
aircraft is looming large. c
around 2020, unless funding is found for
additional aircraft. While no other U.S.
military rotorcraft lines are threatened,
2011-18 procurement is being cut in half.
That leaves the U.S. with two secure,
dedicated xed-wing military production
lines (and only one prime contractor):
Lockheed Martins F-35 and C-130J (see
above). Boeing is building its KC-46
tanker and P-8 maritime patrol deriva-
tives of commercial jetliners, but the P-8
is slated to wind down around 2020, too.
There are few new programs in the
pipeline. The Air Forces T-X trainer
should generate an of-the-shelf jet
production line, but not until the next
decade. The Long Range Strike-Bomb-
er is just starting development, and
we are unlikely to see any production
aircraft until 2025, at the earliest.
There is not much planning behind
this carnage. While the C-130J is one of
the few secure lines, with healthy ongo-
ing procurement for the Air Force, Spe-
cial Operations Command, Marines and
export customers, it only barely survived
the ax. Just eight years ago, the Defense
Department moved to end procurement,
efectively killing the C-130J line. If this
move had not been averted, there would
be an aging eet of 40-plus-year-old
By Richard Aboulaa
Contributing columnist
Richard Aboulaa is
vice president of analysis at Teal
Group. He is based in
Washington.
U
.
S
.

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Discover where priorities and opportunities exist beyond the FY2015 budget
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Learn more and register at www.aviationweek.com/events/dtar

COMMENTARY
Evidence is strengthening that Chi-
nese commercial aviationuntil now
largely unafected by the low-cost revo-
lutionwill undergo profound change
in coming years, although nothing rapid
should be expected in an industry man-
aged by a government that, while eager
for reform, is always wary of instability.
According to China Easterns plan,
wholly owned subsidiary China United
Airlines, based at Beijing Nanyuan
airport, will be converted to budget op-
erations, industry ofcials say. The eet
for budget operations will probably be
about 25 Boeing 737-700s and 737-800s.
The carriers 737 eet numbers 32, but
some of those aircraft are own as VIP
jets, probably for the military.
China United is closely associated
with the air force, which owns Nanyuan,
a base in Beijings southern suburbs at
which it allows limited civil operations.
Nanyuan is one of the few facilities in
China that could be counted as the sort
of secondary airport tradi-
tionally favored by budget
airlines. This is China
Easterns second attempt
to start budget operations.
Since 2012 it and Qantas
have been trying to set up
a franchisee of the Austra-
lian groups Jetstar budget
brand in Hong Kong. Op-
CAAC looks serious about promoting budget
airlines, and China Eastern is planning one
Low-Cost Headway
ponents such as Cathay Pacic and its
subsidiary Dragonair argue that Jetstar
Hong Kong lacks the local characteris-
tics needed for registration as an airline
based in the self-governing city. For
China Eastern, one reason for the Hong
Kong venture is to pick up experience
from Jetstar it could apply on the main-
land. The move to convert China United
before gaining Jetstar experience may
indicate that the airlines Hong Kong
hopes are waning.
Meanwhile, the CAAC looks like it
means business in calling for the devel-
opment of budget airlines. It announced
the policy in a July meeting, but there
has been a lingering suspicion that was
merely singing, without much convic-
tion, from the reformist songsheet
of the national leadership that took
power a year ago. It had not previously
supported budget aviation. With its
year-end industry meeting on Dec. 23 it
has now declared concrete measures,
while perhaps widening its advocacy to
include long-haul low-cost operations.
Chief among those measures is level-
ing a playing eld slanted toward the
three big network carriersAir China,
China Southern and China Eastern.
The CAAC will adopt more exible
policies in relation to route rights,
schedule times and fares, with the aim
of creating a policy environment that is
fair to low-cost airlines, with a relaxed
policy towards them, the CAAC told
the industry at a closed-door meeting.
A key problem for any carrier compet-
ing with the big three has been their
greater inuence with the CAAC, which
has tended to favor them in allocating
strong routes with attractive runway
slot times. They also nd it easier to get
pilots and mechanics and, therefore, per-
mission to buy aircraft. Chinas biggest
budget carrier, Spring Airlines, has evi-
dently run into such limits, since it has
developed a good deal more slowly than
expected, despite its cost advantages.
Active support for low-cost airlines
is one of the major tasks for the CAAC
in 2014, the agency says. It will re-
quire airports to support and cooper-
ate with low-cost airlinesalthough
most airports belong to local govern-
ments and likely will resist making
unprotable moves. The CAAC wants
more terminal, runway and apron ca-
pacity allocated to budget airlines.
The push includes a direction to the
major airlinessuch as China East-
ernto consider low-cost operations.
The CAAC has also told them to pay
close attention to the low-cost market
on international routes as an opportu-
nity for rapid growth in outbound tour-
ism and to expand low-cost business.
That seems to mean budget operation
of widebody aircraft, similar to Jetstar
and Malaysias successful AirAsiaX.
The CAAC is renewing long-standing
calls for airlines to focus more on
international business. This has largely
fallen on deaf ears; Chinese airlines lack
competitiveness with foreign carriers. c
Airline Intel
By Bradley Perrett
Asia-Pacic Bureau Chief
Bradley Perrett blogs at:
AviationWeek.com/thingswithwings
perrett@aviationweek.com
C
hina Eastern Airlines, already the major Chinese airline
with the greatest focus on low-cost operations, is planning to
operate a mainland budget subsidiary from Beijing. At the same
time, the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) is step-
ping up its campaign to promote low-cost airlines, setting aside
its long-standing disdain for the potentially destabilizing model.
Register today! www.aviationweek.com/events/latam
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Learn how regional MROs can compete on a global scale
Assess the impact of rapidly developing regions

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A
Rand Corp. report produced to guide future U.S. Air
Force program plans has concluded that the F-35 Joint
Strike Fighter program will cost more than three sin-
gle-service programs would have done. That conclusion drew
a sharp riposte from Lockheed Martin, which accused the re-
ports authors of using outdated data that overstated the F-35s
projected operating costs by a factor of two.
Lockheed Martin based its criticism
on numbers that cannot be found in
the report. The company declined to
give a source for those numbers, stat-
ing that they were government data.
The Joint Strike Fighter program
ofce distanced itself from the argu-
ment, saying it had no real issues
with the report, and did not conrm
any of the companys gures.
Rands Project Air Force team pro-
duced the report, which was request-
ed in 2012 by then-commander of Air
Force Materiel Command Gen. Donald
Hofman, as it became clear the JSF
would be running many years behind
the schedule that was planned up to
2010.
The study was based on historic
data up to November 2011, including
the scal year 2010 selected acquisi-
tion report (SAR). Rand, a think tank
founded by the Air Force and still
closely associated with the service,
did not use the fiscal year 2011 SAR
(issued in March 2012) which disclosed
a three-year slip in development and
actually reported higher cost projec-
tions than the 2010 report.
Because the JSF program is in-
complete, and because no other joint
ghter program has been completed
as planned, the researchers used data
from a variety of programsfrom
the F/A-18E/F and F-22 fighters to
the T-6A turboprop trainer and E-8C
surveillance platformto gauge the
historical cost increases in joint and
single-service programs.
They did not focus on absolute costs,
but on the percentage growth of esti-
mated costs between the launch of
a full-scale development program
(Milestone B; MS B) and points five
and nine years after MS B, the latter
corresponding to the most recent JSF
data available in late 2011.
The first conclusion drawn from
this data was that the average esti-
mated cost of all joint aircraft pro-
grams grew faster than that of single-
service programs at both the ve- and
nine-year points, and that the lowest
cost-growth rate of any joint program
was higher than the fastest-growing
single-service program: Even the T-6
grew faster than the C-17, which came
Bill Sweetman Washington
A Billion Here
Rand report dismisses joint-program savings
DEFENSE
close to being canceled because of its
cost growth.
The researchers used historical
data to estimate production cost saved
as a result of joint programs: that is,
the benet of lower unit costs over a
longer production run. They found that
the maximum benet for an ideal two-
service programwhere two services
acquire equal numbers of 100% com-
mon aircraftwas a 13% cut in unit
production cost and 20% in overall ac-
quisition (assuming that production
costs were four times research and
development costs).
But these theoretical savings were
more than offset by the greater cost
A
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P
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o
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r
a
m
C
o
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t

G
r
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w
t
h

%
Source: Rands analysis of Selected Acquisition Report data
Joint Aircraft
Cost-Growth Factor
Single-Service Aircraft
Cost-Growth Factor
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
9 8 7 6 5
Years Past Milestone B
41%
Joint Programs
(JSF, JPATS T-6A, JSTARS E-8, V-22)
Joint Program Costs Grow Faster
Note: Milestone B is approval of full-scale development and low-rate
initial production and validation of the cost estimates
Single-Service Programs
(C-17, F/A-18E/F, F-22, T-45 TS)
increase rates observed in practice,
making the joint program more costly
for both parties. Also, even this calcula-
tion did not take into account the higher
production and development costs that
would be incurred if the partner servic-
es procured diferent versions.
The second part of the Rand report
applied this learning to the F-35 pro-
gram as compared with three notional
single-service programs. The MS B
baseline R&D cost of three separate
Rand researchers found that R&D and production cost increases were
consistently higher for joint programs than for single-service programs.

programs was based on the JSF pro-
grams projections that its R&D cost
would be 60% of three single-service
programs.
Rand estimated the baseline procure-
ment cost of the separate programs on
assumptions that favored JSF. No cred-
it was taken for commonality between
the three separate aircraft. Likewise,
the MS B baseline operations and sup-
port cost assumed zero commonality
between the three aircraft and elimi-
nated all economies of scale.
Researchers compared the actual
growth of F-35 estimates at the nine-
year mark with growth rates for three
separate programs based on historic
growth with the F-22, the most com-
parable single-service ghter program.
The same adjustments were applied to
O&S costs, although a later and higher
estimate of F-22 operational costs (at
14 years after MS B) was also included.
The studys conclusion: The JSF esti-
mated life-cycle cost (LCC) in 2010 was
already higher than that of three single-
service programs. Under none of the
plausible conditions that we analyzed
did JSF have a lower LCC than the no-
tional single-service programs. The re-
port does not recommend any changes
to the JSF program, but advises the Air
Force to avoid joint projects in future.
Lockheed Martin claims in response
that the Rand numbers are outdated
and that the U.S. government stated
the O&S [operations and sustainment]
costs for the program are approxi-
mately $782 billion for a 55-year-long
programnot $1.5 trillion as cited in
the Rand report.
The $1.5 trillion figure occurs no-
where in the report, which cites life-
time F-35 O&S as $487 billion in 2002
dollars. This is based on the number
in the scal year 2010 SAR, adjusted
to compensate for 409 Navy/Marine
aircraft eliminated from the program.
Neither is Lockheed Martin able or
willing to provide a source for its $782
billion gure. The 2012 SAR estimated
those costs at $617 billion in 2012 dol-
lars, or $1,113 billion in then-year dollars
for operations beyond 2065. That is the
closest to $1.5 trillion of any published
gures.
More recently, program ofce direc-
tor Lt. Gen. Christopher Bogdan was
quoted as saying the then-year esti-
mate had been revised downward to
$857 billion. One industry source says
the revision is largely or entirely the
result of changed inationary assump-
Amy Svitak Munich and Brussels
Falling Short
EU leaders agree to greater defense cooperation,
but have far to go to build common capabilities
A
gainst a backdrop of increasingly
severe budget pressures across
Europe, hopes that sovereign
governments would agree to jointly
develop military equipment dimmed
in December, when a defense summit
in Brussels failed to produce specic
actions on development of European
unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) and
other cooperative programs.
During a two-day meeting of the
European Council, 28 heads of state
agreed to move forward, albeit slowly,
on joint development of common road-
maps and requirements in key areas.
In addition to a next-generation UAV,
these include air-to-air refueling, sat-
ellite communications and new cyber-
security projects.
However, while member states de-
clined to make concrete commitments
to jointly developing such capabilities
beyond endorsing their general outline,
the fact that all 28 EU governments
agreed to discuss joint defense strat-
egy is viewed as a sign of progress.
These are projects on which we can
work now, EU President Herman Van
Rompuy said in remarks following the
meeting.
During the summit, which marks
the European Councils rst defense
meeting in ve years, member states
agreed to a strategic reassessment
in mid-2015 to measure progress on all
four defense-capability areas promot-
ed by the European Defense Agency
(EDA) as ripe for collaboration.
On the subject of UAVs, member
states have already endorsed devel-
opment of a common staf target for
a European medium-altitude, long-
2
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2

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i
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l
i
o
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s
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Source: Rand Corp.
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Three single-service JSF
At Milestone B
Three single-service
(with F-22 cost-growth rate)
JSF
O&S
Procurement
RDT&E
O&S (F-22 cost-growth rate at 14 years)
O&S (F-22 cost-growth rate at 9.7 years)
O&S = Operations & Support
RDT&E = Research, development, test and engineering
JSF Costs Grew Faster Than F-22s
tions, in which case it would have no
bearing on the Rand report because it
uses base-year dollars. A JSF program
ofce ofcial agrees that a lot of the
change is inflationary and says the
ofce is still working with industry to
reduce O&S costs.
Lockheed Martins assertion that
the Rand data are outdatedechoed
in a Pratt & Whitney statementmay
not be in the contractors interest. The
Rand report uses scal year 2010 SAR
data that are actually 10% lower than
the most recent ofcial numbers. c
The JSF is on track to exceed the projected life-cycle costs of three
single-service programs, the report concluded.

endurance (MALE) system, though
government resources have not been
committed to it.
For now, the one thing thats been
done is development of the military
requirement, and the next thing is de-
velopment of the technical description
of what the system should be like, an
aide to the European Commission
the check-writing arm of the EUsaid
in an interview Dec. 19.
Once technical requirements are de-
ned, however, the member states will
be asked to confirm their intention to
participate in this project, the aide said.
Earlier in 2013, defense contractors
in France, Germany and Italy called on
European governments to fund devel-
opment of a pan-European unmanned
aerial vehicle that would give EU na-
tions a chance to catch up in the area
of UAV development. The efort, ini-
tiated by Airbus Defense & Space in
Germany, Frances Dassault Aviation
and Italys Finmeccanica, was a reac-
tion to Frances decision in May to pur-
chase up to 16 U.S.-built MQ-9 Reapers
to quickly shore up ISR (intelligence,
surveillance, reconnaissance) gaps
highlighted during the nations inter-
vention against Islamist rebels in Mali.
Italy and the U.K. already operate
Reapers, with France and the Nether-
lands to follow suit.
Under the auspices of the EDA, in
November France, Germany, Greece, It-
generation of European communica-
tions satellites.
Germany, Spain, France, Italy and
U.K. currently operate their own mili-
tary communications satellite systems,
a number of which are slated to reach
the end of their service life in the next
few years.
A roadmap has been proposed on
preparing the next generation of satel-
lite communications, and for closer co-
operation between the member states,
but were not there at the moment,
where we have defined the require-
ments and the targets, the Commis-
sion aide said.
In the area of air-to-air refueling, the
council welcomed progress achieved to
date, which last year saw nine EU coun-
tries plus Norway sign a letter of intent
for considering pooled acquisition of a
tanker aircraft. Led by the Netherlands,
the new aircraftpossibly a Multirole
Tanker Transport based on the Airbus
A330would be available for European
users in 2020, the aide said.
Council members also discussed
but did not approvejoint funding of
military activities, such as those led by
France in the Central African Republic.
France has asked for EU nancial
assistance in the peacekeeping opera-
tion, a security mission that French
President Francois Hollande has said
is being conducted on behalf of Euro-
pean security overall. c
aly, the Netherlands, Poland and Spain
established a MALE UAV user com-
munity to exchange information and
best practices. Under a separate EDA
initiative, eight European countries
including Austria, Belgium, the Czech
Republic, Germany, France, Italy and
the U.K.have pooled 50 million ($68
million) collectively to research integra-
tion of UAVs into European airspace.
This is an investment program for
research into how [UAVs] could be en-
tered into non-segregated airspace, a
Commission aide said.
The Council also approved a goal of
establishing a regulation for EU-wide
UAV certication by 2016, a move that
is welcomed by industry.
Certication of defense equipment
is a nightmare in Europe, one senior
European industry ofcial said in Mu-
nich on the eve of the summit. Some
20% of development costs are just for
certication.
He said while the outcome of the Eu-
ropean Council summit was likely to
prove a disappointment in some ways,
the fact that governments are address-
ing the need for common certication
rules by 2016 is promising.
At least they are working on it, he
said.
In the area of satellite communica-
tions, ve countries are joining to form
a users group with the goal of develop-
ing a roadmap for preparing the next-
DEFENSE
C
R
O
W
N

C
O
P
Y
R
I
G
H
T
The Netherlands is joining Italy, the U.K. and, more recently,
France, as the latest Reaper operator in Europe.

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Tony Osborne Le Luc, France
NH90s and Tigers are set to
spearhead change for French army
helicopter operations
W
ith the handover of the rst examples of the NH90
Caiman support and Eurocopter Tiger HAD attack
helicopters to an operational unit, the aviation wing
of the French army has begun its long-awaited moderniza-
tion efort.
Three NH90 tactical transport helicopters and two Eu-
rocopter EC665 Tiger HADs have been delivered to the 1st
Combat Helicopter Regiment based at Phalsbourg, near
Strasbourg, and over the next few months crews will hone
their operational capabilities in readiness for potential de-
ployed operations by July 2014.
The introduction of the two types marks a major
change for the army air wing, which remains reli-
ant on the 1960s-vintage Aerospatiale-built SA330
Puma and various versions of the SA342 Gazelle.
Both types have been heavily used in recent French
theaters, including Mali during Operation Serval
and in the ongoing Operation Sangaris, also in the
Central African Republic.
The services air division has enjoyed some mod-
ernization in recent years. The introduction of the
EC665 Tiger HAP gave it a taste of a dedicated
attack-helicopter platform, but the HAP version
is limited by its inability to carry precision-guided
munitions, which means the aircraft had only the
30-mm cannon as its primary weapon in Afghani-
stan and Mali. Limited numbers of the EC725 Cara-
cal and AS532 Cougar are also in service to back up the ag-
ing Pumas, but these were mainly meant to support special
operations forces.
The introduction of the Tiger HAD, however, provides
the service with AGM-114 Hellre missile capability, allow-
ing commanders to start phasing out Gazelles tted with the
venerable MBDA HOT long-range anti-tank missiles. While
the NH90 is a considerably more capable aircraft than its
predecessors, it is signicantly more complex.
As part of the types introduction, the army air corps, jointly
with the navywhich operates the naval NH90 Caiman Marine
varianthave opened a training facility, CFIA, at Le Luc, in
southeastern France, to bring crews up-to-speed on the type.
The rst crews destined for the NH90 have been cherry-
picked from other types, but the air branch plans to begin
instructing ab initio pilots at a joint training center at Dax,
near the Pyrenees, in 2015. Despite the helicopter being
inducted into the inventory back in 2005, Tiger pilots are
still being cross-trained from other types. This is slated to
change in 2014, when the rst ab initio crews will enter the
joint French-German Tiger training school at Le Luc.
The NH90 training here at Le Luc is a model for how we
will do things in the future, explains Brig. Gen. Marc Demier,
commander of army air corps helicopter training.
CFIA introduces the idea of training both aircrews and
engineers on the same site, unlike for the Tiger, for which
aircrews are trained at Le Luc while engineers and mechan-
ics receive instruction at Fassburg, Germany. Simulators are
also heavily used; roughly 70% of the training ying hours for
the type will be completed in simulator facilities at CFIA, a
50% increase over the simulator hours logged by Tiger pilots.
Several other European NH90 operators have expressed
an interest in the facilities, including Spain and Belgium.
Spain already has instructors at Le Luc to train pilots on
the Tiger, although other nations using CFIA would have to
supply their own aircraft. The French army air wing will
have eight aircraft at the school to support all branches of
the service. That number has temporarily dropped, with the
move of three aircraft to the 1st Combat Helicopter Regi-
ment, but new deliveries to the army air division will boost
the numbers in the coming months.
The army air wing is buying 68 NH90s in the tactical trans-
port conguration, which was ordered in two batches of 34.
These will replace the majority of the SA330 Pumas still in
operation, although the defense ministry is hoping to upgrade
approximately 30 with modernized avionics to keep the type
in operational service until at least 2025.
The defense ministry already has begun modernizing the
eet of AS532 Cougars with a new avionics suite and au-
topilot as well as electro-optical systems. Several of these
aircraft, known as the Cougar Renove, began reentering
service in 2012.
The governments military program law calls for the intro-
duction of 38 Caimans for the army air sector between 2014-
20, along with 16 Tigers. Paris intends to reduce its buy of 80
Tigers to 60 during the course of the program law, though
Eurocopter will be partially compensated with more conver-
sions of the helicopters from HAP to HAD conguration. The
reduction in eet size may also result in a corresponding
reduction in the number of aircrews being trained and in
roughly 10% fewer annual ight hours in the coming years. c
DEFENSE
New Teeth
The NH90 Caiman and Eurocopter Tiger HAD
(foreground) are likely to become familiar sights
during future French operational deployments.
TONY OSBORNE/AW&ST

A
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Bradley Perrett Beijing
Responsive Thrust
China opens up on development
of Change 3s main engine
A
mong the chal-
lenges Chinese
engineers had
to overcome in achiev-
ing a landing on the
Moon, one of the tricki-
est was developing
a powerful variable-
thrust engine for the
jobone that could re-
sponsively throttle up
and down as needed
to get the probe to lu-
nar orbit, then deliver
it to its landing point,
stopping on the way to
survey the terrain.
Chinese develop-
ment engineers over-
came many roadblocks
to bring the engine to
fruition. It is the main
powerplant for the
Change 3 lunar probe,
says the chief designer
for the propulsion pro-
gram, Jin Guangming.
Generating 7.5 kilonewtons (1,690 lb.)
of thrust, it is three times as power-
ful as the main powerplant of Chinas
Shenzhou manned spacecraft, Jin says,
emphasizing that the main difculty in
development was not the large increase
in output but, rather, achieving a wide
range of variable thrust, precision con-
trol, high performance (presumably
meaning efciency) and durability.
The Academy of Aerospace Propul-
sion Technology, part of China Aero-
space Science and Technology Corp.,
the countrys main supplier of launch-
ers and spacecraft, spearheaded the
engines design. Change 3 arrived on
the Moon on Dec. 14 GMT.
Change 3 is the rst mission in which
the engine has been used for a probe,
Jin tells state news agency China News
Service, leaving open the possibility that
it has had other applications. Its charac-
teristics include optimal performance at
full thrust, he says, while in the range of
1.5-5 kilonewtons it must meet the chal-
lenge of reliably shifting to any needed
output. The engine was required to
fire during the jour-
ney to the Moonfor
course correction and
to demonstrate its
functionalitythen
to relight to bring the
probe into a lunar or-
bit and brake it for the
controlled descent,
during which it had to
responsively deliver
variable thrust. It had
to power up again to
arrest descent so the
probe could assess
and adjust its landing
point, and then take
the craft down for a
controlled descent
until shutting down
at an altitude of 3 me-
ters. The descent was
autonomous, without
ground control.
The academy began
researching variable-
thrust engines in 1996-
2000, says Jin. Development of the en-
gine began in 2008, and many problems
were encountered. The engine was test-
ed 100 times with an accumulated ring
period exceeding 60,000 sec. The aim
was to ensure it could perform without
fault for 20 min. Ground testing was
complete by the time of the November
2012 Zhuhai air show, where the engine
was exhibited.
Based on analysis of a photo of a
display version of the engine, one U.S.
propulsion expert says it is most like a
throttleable monopropellant hydrazine
engine, although there is not enough
evidence in the photo to rule out a
dual-propellant approach burning hy-
drazine with nitrogen tetroxide as the
oxidizer.
In development, the rst difculty
was controlling weight, says Jin. The
engineers would have liked to have
increased the size of the nozzle, to ex-
tract as much efciency as possible in
generating the high thrust, but they
had to deal with weight and dimen-
sion limits. In particular, a large nozzle
would have demanded longer landing
legs, which would have increased the
chance of an unstable touchdown. As
exhibited at Zhuhai, the engines noz-
zle was not at all small.
Another problem was dissipating
heat during operation. To avoid in-
terference with the equipment on the
spacecraft, a heat shield was needed,
but that obstructed the dissipation of
heat, thereby affecting the engines
reliability. The developers dedicated
innumerable research, testing and re-
peated redesign hours into overcoming
this difculty, says Jin.
The nozzle of the engines thrust
chamber uses a special alloy plus coat-
ings to resist oxidation at high tempera-
tures. The nozzles walls are as thin as
several hundred microns. Thickness
and shape vary. To ensure the precision
of the shape, the nozzle was formed and
worked in a single piece, says Jin. c
SPACE
Change 3s main engine was
exhibited at the Zhuhai air
show in 2012.
Amy Svitak Paris
Cosmic Census
Europes $1.3-billion Gaia to map Milky Way
in unprecedented detail
W
ith the launch of Europes
Gaia star-mapping mission,
scientists are one step closer
to deciphering the history of the Milky
Way, and to predicting how it might
evolve in the future.
Equipped with twin silicon-carbide
telescopes built around a one-billion-
pixel focal arraythe largest ever
builtthe European Space Agencys
(ESA) Gaia mission is designed to sur-
vey a billion stars in the galaxy, pro-
viding scientists with the most precise
3-D map to date for understanding its
composition and evolution.
For the rst time we will have a fair
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sample of what is out there, where it
is, how it is moving, how [dark] mat-
ter is distributed, where and when
stars formed, and where and when
the chemical elements of which we are
made were created, says Gaias U.K.
Principal Investigator Gerry Gilmore.
ESA says the spacecraft and its so-
phisticated instruments are designed to
measure the angular position of stars
between 7-300 microseconds of arc
100 times the accuracy of ESAs 1989
Hipparcos mission, and equivalent to
a terrestrial measurement of an astro-
nauts thumbnail on the lunar surface.
The resulting census will help astron-
omers determine the position, motion
and properties of each starattributes
that can provide clues about their his-
toryto create a family tree of the
galaxy. ESA says the motions of these
stars can then be viewed rapidly in for-
ward or reverse, to determine more
about how the galaxy was formed and
to learn more about its ultimate fate.
Gaia blasted off at 6:12 a.m. local
time on Dec. 19 atop a Soyuz ST-B
rocket from ESAs spaceport in Kourou,
French Guiana. About 10 min. later, af-
ter separation of the rst three stages,
the Fregat upper stage ignited, deliv-
ering Gaia into a temporary parking
orbit at an altitude of 175 km (109 mi.).
A second firing of the Fregat 11 min.
later took Gaia into its transfer orbit,
followed by spacecraft separation at 42
min. after liftof. With the 2,034-kg Gaia
on its way to the L2 Lagrange point 1.5
million km from Earth, ESA said it has
established ground telemetry and atti-
tude control from its operations center
in Darmstadt, Germany, and that the
spacecraft is now activating its systems.
Engineers commanded Gaia to per-
form the rst of two critical thruster r-
ings Dec. 20 to ensure it is on the right
trajectory toward L2. About 20 days
after launch, a second critical burn is
expected to insert the spacecraft into
its operational orbit, beginning a four-
month commissioning phase in which
all of the systems and instruments will
be turned on, checked and calibrated
before beginning its ve-year mission.
Led by France, Germany and the
U.K., the 940 million ($1.3 billion)
Gaia mission was equipped by EADS-
Astrium, starting with a 317 million
contract awarded by ESA in May 2006.
In the course of its five-plus year
mission, Gaia will observe more than
40 million objects per day, collecting
100 terabytes of raw data and yielding
1 petabyte of processed and archived
data. Even after being compressed by
software, the data produced is expect-
ed to ll over 30,000 CD ROMs.
Over a decade in the making, Gaia is
two years behind schedule and 16% over
budget, owing to technical issues with
the satellites instruments and delays
due to a crowded manifest in Kourou.
Much of the cost growth resulted from
technical issues that extended manu-
facturing and testing of the spacecraft
subsystems, notably the polishing of
Gaias 10 mirrorsincluding two large
primary mirrorsand assembly and
test of the focal plane, a 0.38-square-
meter (4-sq.-ft.) camera comprising 106
charge-coupled devices (CCD), each of
which is efectively a miniature camera.
More recently, a technical glitch that
slipped the launch one month to Dec.
19 involved faulty transponder com-
ponents (built by Thales Alenia Space
of Italy) that generate timing signals
for downlinking science data. ESA did
not identify the in-orbit satellite with
the faulty transponder component
that prompted the agency to delay the
mission one month, but said it would
replace the parts prior to Gaias launch
as a precautionary measure.
Gaia is the second consecutive
Soyuz launch from French Guiana
to be delayed in 2013. O3b Networks
postponed a planned late-September
Soyuz launch of four communications
satellites built by Thales Alenia Space
due to a technical problem discovered
on four similar O3b satellites launched
earlier in 2013. The four spacecraft are
now slated to launch in 2014. c
SPACE
Tony Osborne London
Fueling
Concern
Faulty fuel-system
alerts eyed in two
recent crashes of
Eurocopter helicopters
E
urocopter is recommending
worldwide checks of the fuel
systems on its EC135 twin-engine
light-helicopter.
Two Eurocopter alert service bul-
letins (ASB), followed by emergency
airworthiness directives from the
European Aviation Safety Agency,
are calling on operators of the type to
carry out mandatory one-time checks
of the aircrafts fuel supply system and
report the results to the manufacturer.
This will provide an up-to-date eet
status regarding the types fuel tank
sensors; a second ASB introduces a
revision of the ight manual with re-
gard to the low fuel warning and the
fuel pump caution indications.
The checks afect more than 1,100
of the popular twin-engine helicopter,
which is in service with law-enforce-
ment agencies, air ambulance opera-
tors and militaries globally.
Concerns have emerged in the wake
of a fatal crash in Glasgow city center
on Nov. 29. Ten people died when an
EC135 T2, operated for Police Scotland
by U.K. operator Bond Air Services,
crashed through the roof of the Clutha
Vaults public house. All three crewa
civilian pilot and two police ofcers
died in the aircraft, while six patrons
were killed within the building; a sev-
enth patron succumbed to his injuries
in the hospital later.
Within two weeks of the acci -
dent, Bond unilaterally grounded its
EC135sdisrupting operations with
many of the U.K.s air ambulances
when engineers discovered supply-
tank fuel gauging errors on some air-
craft. According to Eurocopter, Bonds
tests found that the fuel sensors, which
also measure fuel levels in the supply
tanks of another aircraft operated by
Bond, had incorrectly indicated the
amount of fuel available.
ROTORCRAFT
A Soyuz ST-B lofts Europes Gaia
star-mapping mission toward the
L2 Lagrange point Dec. 19 from
Kourou, French Guiana.
E
S
A

could have an impact on the payload
capability of some heavier-mission-
equipped aircraft such as those used
by police forces.
The fuel issue does not, however,
represent a clear line of inquiry for
the accident probe. So far, investiga-
tors have said that the aircraft struck
the roof of the building with a high
rate of descent and low or negligible
forward speed.
All main rotor blades were attached
at the time of the impact, but neither
the main rotor nor the fenestron tail
rotors were rotating, the U.K. Air Ac-
cident Investigation Branch (AAIB)
stated in a preliminary report released
Dec. 9.
Investigators drained 95 liters (25
gal.) of fuel from the tanks, while fur-
ther examinations found
that all components were
present and there were no
signs of major mechani-
cal disruption of either
engine.
Only a few clues will be
gleaned from the aircrafts
onboard mission system
as it was not tted with a
flight data recorder, nor
was it required to be by the
U.K. Civil Aviation Author-
ity. Investigators said they
were planning to make use
of record fault codes in var-
ious systems onboard the
aircraft. Onboard systems
that capture images and
audio also will be reviewed.
The accident comes at an already
challenging time for Eurocopter in the
U.K. The manufacturer is attempting
to overcome adverse public perception
over its Super Puma family following
a set of ve accidents in four years in
the North Seatwo of which were fatal.
While the most recent of those losses,
the crash of a CHC AS332L2 on Aug. 23,
seems to be the result of pilot error (the
AAIB has not yet nished its report),
people in Scotland have been quick to
make the link between Eurocopter-
helicopter involvement in the North
Sea and Glasgow tragedies. c
Workers remove the rear rotor of a
police helicopter from the Glasgow,
Scotland, crash site in the aftermath
of the Nov. 29 fatal EC135 accident.
The sensors in the supply tanks of
this aircraft did not work properly; it
was determined that an amber cau-
tion signal linked to the sensors was
not triggered. However, the red low
fuel alert still worked
correctly because it op-
erates on a completely
decoupled system.
Eurocopter says fuel-
system functionality tests
subsequently performed
by two other EC135 op-
erators in Europe have
revealed possible similar
supply-tank fuel gauge er-
rors on some aircraft. Of
the 36 supply tank sensors
tested in the U.K., one was
found to have an issue.
Following discovery,
the faulty sensor was
cleaned. When retested,
the sensor was fully func-
tional, the company re-
ported. LPR, which ies EC135s for air
ambulance operations in Poland, also
found an issue in one of their 23 aircraft.
On Dec. 20, Eurocopter revealed
that checks on more than 100 fuel
sensors from 50 aircraft have been
completed; three were found to be
defective. The faulty sensors were
cleaned. When retested, only one was
still faulty while two of them were fully
functional again.
Bond has said that while all of its air-
craft have now returned to operations,
its EC135s will carry a minimum of 90
kg (198 lb.) of fuel at all times, which
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Bradley Perrett Beijing
Slimmed Down
Now launched, the Avic MA700
is leaner than previously planned
A
fter ve years of design studies,
Avic has significantly revised
the design of its MA700 turbo-
prop airliner, which it has now launched
into full-scale development with entry
into service targeted at 2019.
Among the changes, Avic has added
a shortened version with about 50 seats
to the previous plan to follow the initial
78-seat version with a stretched variant
accommodating about 90.
New details show the MA700s cabin
width has shrunk during pre-develop-
ment, with the manufacturer retreat-
ing from a plan for roomier seats than
usual for such aircraft. Adoption of a
narrower fuselage and shorter wing
span than planned partly explain a re-
duction in what already looked like an
aggressive weight target.
Bids from engine makers were due
in June but the supplier still has not
been chosen. It will be within a few
months, says Dong, deputy chief de-
signer of Avics First Aircraft Insti-
tute, a design bureau. Proposed new
engines from Pratt & Whitney Canada
and Safran are likely candidates. Sup-
pliers of other systems will be chosen
in the rst half of 2014.
The status of the MA700 has been
unclear for years, with ofcials some-
times saying it had been launched.
Avics press conference Dec. 19 con-
rmed that only now has that happened.
About ve years have been allocated to
ready the aircraft for service; rst ight
is scheduled for 2016. The development
cost will be several billion yuan (6.1 yuan
= $1), says Geng Ruguang, deputy gen-
eral manager of Avic. The preliminary
design review is scheduled for 2014.
In May, rst delivery was projected
for 2018. Avic Aircraft, the large-air-
plane unit of Avic that is responsible
for the program, still expects to re-
ceive airworthiness certication in that
year. There are no launch orders, even
though Avic says the program is being
undertaken for prot.
The plan for a short version must
mean the MA700 will replace the cur-
rent Avic MA60 (and MA600 update),
an Antonov An-24 derivative whose
certication cannot be recognized by
Western civil aviation agencies. Amid
a general shift in demand toward larger
regional airliners, there is not much re-
quirement for small turboprops, how-
ever. Moreover, a 50-seat MA700 would
sufer the usual weight penalties of a
shortened commercial aircraft.
Avic is aiming for Western endorse-
ment of the MA700s certication, as it
is for most of its new aircraft. This will
depend on Comac finalizing develop-
ment of the ARJ21 regional jet, whose
delayed certication, now due next year,
is holding up FAA recognition of Chi-
nese airworthiness assessment.
Apart from modernity, the MA700
will difer from its competitors in size:
It will be larger than the ATR 72 and
Bombardier Q400, yet smaller than
the new 90-seater being considered
by ATR owners Alenia Aermacchi and
EADS. The type will ofer performance
approaching the high level of the Q400
but, if Avic hits its targets, a weight per
seat near the low level of the ATR 72.
According to Avic, the MA700s advan-
tages will include economy in fuel con-
sumption and maintenance, adaptability
to operation from hot-and-high airelds
and those with unpaved runways and
speed and, in the cabin, quietness, spa-
cious overhead bins and comfort.
Despite a claim of spaciousness, it
is evident the designers have pruned
weight and drag by slimming the fuse-
lage cross-section. Seat backs are now
44 cm (17.3 in.) wide, the same as in the
ATR 72 and the Q400; last year Avics
published design showed 46-cm seat
backs. And aisle width in the standard
arrangement has fallen to 43.5 cm from
46 cma little less generous than the
ATR 72s but roomier than the Q400s.
The result is that fuselage width has
evidently shrunk by 10.5 cm to about
2.9 meters (9.5 ft.). Standing room in
the aisle has risen 5 cm, however. The
greater cabin height, narrower width
and retention of an underfloor bag-
gage compartment (shown by an ofcial
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model) suggest Avic may have shifted
from a circular cross-section to an egg-
shaped one, like that adopted by design-
ers of Indias proposed RTA turboprop.
The MA700 span has been cut dra-
matically since last years gures, by 1.7
meters to 27.5 meters, while length has
risen more than 0.8 meters to 30.9 me-
ters; the latter change is probably as-
sociated with a rise in standard seating
from 76. The new standard seating of 78
assumes an all-economy arrangement
at 81-cm pitch. Dong Jianhong says the
longer aircraft will have more than 90
seats but a further stretch beyond 100
seats is not contemplated. Anything
longer than the rst stretch would pre-
sumably have inadequate takeof rota-
tion. Adding complete seat rows would
presumably make the capacity 94 or 98.
Maximum cruise speed will be fairly
high at 610 kph (380 mph), but that is
at the low end of the range stated last
year, 600-650 kph. Fast turboprop
airliners are more popular with pas-
sengers and more exible in operation,
but more speed demands more power,
weight and cost. Industry ofcials have
said that the MA700s installed power
will be determined by the need to climb
fast enough from runways to minimize
interference with jet operations; the
maximum cruise speed is just a by-
product of that, with the normal cruise
speed intended to be 500 kph. The
generously low-power loading should
also support the types
intended suitability for
operation from hot-and-
high airelds.
The power require-
ment is not stated but
Dong says it is less than
5,000 kw (6,700 hp) for
each engine, which is
only to be expected for
the aircrafts size. The
5,000-kw Avic Engine
WJ-10 turboshaft, now
under development,
should eventually be
a candidate, however,
especially for high-pow-
ered military deriva-
tives, but Dong says it
has not been offered.
The Chinese air force is
said to want 50 MA700s.
If those are intended to
be government trans-
ports, then they could
be operated by an airline
instead, and Western
companies could supply their engines,
avionics and other equipment.
The changes to the MA700 over
the past year or so are clearly aimed
at cutting weight, drag and therefore
manufacturing and operating costs. In-
dustry ofcials said in May that empty
and gross weights had fallen by 1 met-
ric ton (2,205 lb.), even though earlier
targets were already well below the
weights of the Q400, which seats 74
at 79-cm pitch. The MA700s empty
weight target of 14.5 tons compares
with the 17.7 tons of the Q400, though
it is possible that Avics gure excludes
items usually counted in the operation-
al empty mass.
If Avic achieves its goals, empty
weight will be 186 kg per passenger seat,
about the same as the operational emp-
ty weight per passenger of the ATR 72,
which has very low power, a maximum
cruise speed of just 510 kph and a com-
posite wing. Moreover, the ATR 72 has
the weight advantages of a stretched
version, whereas the MA700 in its initial
ofering should be carrying the weight of
design provisions for a longer fuselage.
MA700 range with 78 passengers
will be 1,700 km (1,060 mi.), but Avic
says the type is positioned for 800-
km routes. It will use y-by-wire ight
controls. The aircraft will be designed
for a life of 60,000 flight hours or
60,000 ights, equivalent to 20 years of
operation, industry ofcials have said.
The MA700 will be made mainly
of conventional aerospace aluminum,
like its competitors, says Dong. It will
not have a composite wing. Composite
material will probably be less than 10%
and the composite ber will be of T800
grade, which is now in production in
China (AW&ST Dec. 9, p. 32).
When the MA700 was revealed as a
proposal in 2008, it was supposed to go
into service in 2014. Slow progress in
propulsion studies have caused delays,
an industry ofcial says. More recently,
nancing has slowed things down, says
another. This is a commercial program
for Avic. Unlike the Comac C919 pro-
gram, it is not being funded by the cen-
tral government, although Geng says
local governments may contribute. c
AIR TRANSPORT
Adrian Schoeld Auckland
Going Long
Asian LCCs stake long-haul claims
with big eet moves and startup plans
T
he low-cost, long-haul airline
business model has been slow to
gather momentum in other parts
of the world, but it appears set to boom
in Asia. Latest developments see Air-
Asia X placing a major widebody order
that would extend its reach to Europe,
and two other low-cost carriers (LCC)
revealing plans to launch a long-haul
joint venture in Thailand.
The largest Asian LCCs have several
hundred narrowbody aircraft on order,
which will intensify competition in the
short-haul market in coming years. So
looking for new markets further aeld is
a logical next step. Most of the regions
leading LCCs are thinking this way, and
are either operating long-range wide-
bodies or have them on order.
Malaysia-based AirAsia has gone
MA700 Design Evolution
April 2012 Dec. 2013
Empty weight . . . . . . . .15.5 metric tons . . . .14.5 metric tons*
Max payload . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8.6 metric tons
Fuel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5.5 metric tons
Max takeoff weight . . . .27.5 metric tons . . . .26.5 metric tons
Max cruise speed. . . . .600-650 kph. . . . . . .610 kph
Design cruise speed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .500 kph*
Power. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Less than 5,000 kw x 2
Ceiling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7,620 meters
Ceiling, one engine out. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5,400 meters
Takeoff distance. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1,400 meters
Landing distance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1,200 meters
Range, normal pax . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1,700 km
Range, max payload. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1,100 meters
Span . . . . . . . . . . . . . .29.2 meters. . . . . . . .27.5 meters
Length . . . . . . . . . . . . .30.06 meters. . . . . . .30.9 meters
Height . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8 meters
Track . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.1 meters. . . . . . . . .4.1 meters
Wheel base . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11.2 meters
Standard pax . . . . . . . .76 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .78
Cabin width . . . . . . . . .2.7 meters. . . . . . . . .2.618 meters
Seat back width . . . . . .0.46 meters. . . . . . . .0.44 meters
Aisle width . . . . . . . . . .0.46 meters. . . . . . . .0.435 meters
Aisle height . . . . . . . . .1.95 meters. . . . . . . .2 meters
Composite content . . . .About 15%. . . . . . . . .No more than 10%
Blanks indicate data unavailable.
Metric ton = 2,205 lb.; kph = 0.62 mph; km = 0.62 mi.; meter = 3.28 ft.; kw = 1.34 hp.
Source: Avic, except *industry offcials in April 2013.

venture called NokScoot, which they
say will operate widebody aircraft on
international routes. Nok stresses that
this move will allow it to boost its pres-
ence overseas, while Scoot says that
Bangkok is a logical hub for Scoot to
expand to.
Nok will control a 51% stake, and
Scoot will hold 49%. The initial invest-
ment will be THB 2 billion ($61.2 mil-
lion). The carriers say details about
eet and network will be announced
at a later date.
Scoot already operates Boeing 777-
200ERs on medium and long-haul in-
ternational routes from Singapore. It
is due to begin receiving 20 Boeing 787
orders in late 2014 to replace its 777s,
and it is possible that some of the 787
orders would be channeled to Nok-
Scoot. However, the partners report-
edly intend to operate 777s at rst. c
The order signals a new wave of
growth for AirAsia X. Group CEO
Tony Fernandes says the additional
aircraft further cater to our expan-
sion plans in Malaysia, as well as
other long-haul ventures planned
across Asia.
AirAsia X CEO Azran Osman-Rani
has previously stated that the car-
riers goal is to launch overseas joint
ventures in countries where AirAsia
already has established short-haul af-
liates, starting with Thailand and In-
donesia. The Thailand AirAsia X joint
venture is furthest advanced, and is
expected to be operational in the rst
quarter of 2014.
Meanwhile, Thai airline Nok Air and
Singapores Scoot announced on Dec. 16
that they plan to launch a long-haul LCC
to be based in Bangkok. Nok is partly
owned by Thai Airways, and Scoot is a
subsidiary of Singapore Airlines.
The carriers have signed a memoran-
dum of understanding to set up a joint
further down this path than its rivals,
however. It established AirAsia X in
2007 specifically to pursue long-haul
opportunities, and it already operates
a eet of 16 A330-300s. On Dec. 18 it an-
nounced an order for 25 A330-300s for
delivery from 2015, to be supplemented
by another six A330s it will lease from
the International Lease Finance Corpo-
ration. The latest Airbus deal will boost
the airlines outstanding A330 orders to
40, and it is also scheduled to receive 10
A350-900s.
AirAsia X says the new order in-
cludes the extended-range version of
the A330-300, which provides it with
the ability to ofer non-stop service
to destinations in Europe or one-stop
service to the U.S. AirAsia X previ-
ously operated ights to London and
Paris using A340-300s, but cut those
routes in March 2012 because it could
not make them viable with that aircraft
type and Europes high taxes and fees.
Airbus rst unveiled extended-range
options for its A330 family in November
2012; they will be available to operators
in 2015. The upgrade certainly caught
the eye of AirAsia X, as its latest order
is Airbuss largest ever for the A330.
AirAsia X has placed the largest-
ever single order for Airbus A330s.
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Advancing, Executing
In the year just ended, the rst all-new narrowbody airliner
in more than 25 years made its rst ight, an unmanned air-
craft made the rst catapult launches and arrested landings
on a carrier and a scramjet-powered vehicle made the longest
air-breathing hypersonic ight yet. Bombardiers CSeries,
Northrop Grummans X-47B and Boeings X-51A were among
the highlights of an eventful 2013.
Orders have driven the fortunes of Airbus and Boeing
through 2013, with rm totals now exceeding 2,500 for the
A320neo, approaching 1,700 for the 737 MAX and passing
1,000 for the 787, while the A350 is catching up. But 2014 will
turn on execution as the A320neo enters ight testing, 787-8
production ramps up, the A350-900 and 787-9 enter service
and the 787-10, 777X and A350-1000 advance in development.
Execution also will be critical for Bombardiers CSeries and
Comacs C919 as they bid to compete.
As December drew to a close, Airbus had booked more
than 750 orders for A320neo in 2013, and Boeing more than
560 orders for the 737 MAXan intake that is not expected
to be repeated in 2014-15. But the next two years will put to
the test Bombardiers belief that airlines will come back for
a smaller 110-160-seat aircraft once they have secured the
delivery slots needed to renew and expand their core 180-seat
eetsif the CSeries performs on its promises.
Execution remains critical also for Lockheed Martins F-35
Joint Strike Fighter, the most complex aircraft yet attempted
On divergent paths, commercial and defense markets
face similar demands on program performance
A
fter 110 years, aviation is not advancing as rapidly as it once did, at least on the
surface. But 2013 saw several signicant developments in aerospace, and
2014-15 will see new airliners and ghters enter service, key development tests
of manned space transports and, potentially, suborbital passenger ights.
AVIATION WEEK
Aerospace & Defense 2014
Intelligence for an Essential Industry
Graham Warwick Washington
Expanded Content Looking for more information
than we can ofer in print? Registered users can view video
reviews of commercial, defense and space market developments
in 2013, interactive versions of the Conict Map and 2014 MRO
Markets Map and more at AviationWeek.com/aerospace2014
Expanded specication tables are available to registered users at
AviationWeek.com/specs If youre a subscriber but have not
registered, go to AviationWeek.com/awstregister
In 2014, Bombardier will step up ight testing of
the CSeries narrowbody, and the U.S. Navy will conduct
additional tests of the unmanned Northrop Grumman X-47B.

AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/DECEMBER 30, 2013/JANUARY 6, 2014 33
in software, integration and programmatic terms. While the
program still faces challenges, solid progress was made in
2013, although the schedule overruns and cost escalations
have jolted industry into recognizing it needs better practices
and tools for engineering complex systems, particularly after
similar experiences with the F-22. New U.S. Air Force long-
range bomber and Navy carrier-based unmanned aircraft
programs will test the defense communitys willingness to
exercise requirements and development discipline.
Momentum behind the shift from government to com-
mercial space transportation also will be highly dependent
on execution. Cargo resupply services to the International
Space Station are now in place, but developing a capability to
transport astronauts is a tougher task, and key abort-system
and other testsby NASA and the private sectorneed to
succeed in 2014 to stay on track. The year ahead also will be
crucial for NASAs development of a heavy-lift capability to
conduct manned missions beyond low Earth orbit. c

Aerospace & Defense 2014 has been prepared in part with
analysis and data from Forecast International Inc. in
Newtown, Conn. For more comprehensive market information,
visit forecastinternational.com
Contact Ray Peterson, vice president for research and editorial
services, at +1 (203) 426-0800 or
ray.peterson@forecastinternational.com

Key Intel
DEFENSE: Global hotspots and country-
by-country analyses of national priorities, budgets and
programs. See pages 38-47.
MILITARY AVIATION: Rivals upgrade their
combat aircraft as the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter begins
to gain international traction. Special missions become
a key part of transport market. See pages 58-67.

UNMANNED AIRCRAFT: Europe nally
may be getting its act together on UAS, but China and
civil developments are moving faster. See page 68.

AIR TRANSPORT: U.S. market consolidates, Eu-
ropes recovery lags, as Persian Gulf carriers expansion
ups international competition. See pages 98-115.

COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT: The A350
and CSeries are set to join the new generation of airlin-
ers in service, as 777X work ramps up. See page 91.

AIR TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT: Automatic de-
pendent surveillance-broadcast (ADS-B) is poised to
become a pervasive technology. See page 116.

MRO: Steady demand is forecast for airliner
maintenance, with growth seen in engines, interiors and
capacity in Asia. See pages 125-141.

BUSINESS AIRCRAFT: A raft of new
products enters a divided market, still strong for larger
jets and weak for lighter jets. See page 119.

ROTORCRAFT: Light helicopter market
revives as manufacturers eld new medium machines
and eye faster rotorcraft. See pages 72-74.

ENGINES: Fuel-efcient engines continue to
drive commercial developments, and demand, as mili-
tary seeks savings. See page 75.

SPACEFLIGHT: SpaceX is poised to disrupt
launch market as demand continues for high-throughput
communications satellites. See pages 83-90.

TOP TECHNOLOGIES: Which com-
mercial, defense and space technologies are set to
make the headlines in 2014? See pages 78-82 and
121-124.

TOP PHOTO BOMBARDIER; BOTTOM PHOTO NORTHROP GRUMMAN
AviationWeek.com/awst

BOEINGS 787 PROGRAM was thrown into
chaos a year ago by lithium-ion battery
res. With the subsequent grounding and
a string of reliability issues, the aircrafts
rst full year of service was a troubled one.
As 787-8 deliveries ramp up, the stretched
-9 enters service and the -10 continues in
development, 2014 will be a pivotal year.
From commercial airline eet renewal
through ghter procurement challenges to industry
consolidation in the face of budget pressures, 2014 looks
certain to be a pivotal year for aerospace and defense.
Here are 12 areas to keep an eye on.
787

SPACEX
SPACEX IS HOPING FOR A BREAKOUT
YEAR. After the Dec. 3 commercial debut of
its Falcon 9 v1.1 rocket, the company plans
13 launches in 2014, including Boeings rst
two 702SP all-electric satellites. Its an am-
bitious manifest, considering SpaceX has
never had more than three launches in
a single year. Also keep an eye on Virgin
Galactic, which aims to begin suborbital
passenger ights with its SpaceShipTwo.

JOINT STRIKE FIGHTER
KEY MI LESTONES FOR LOCKHEED
MARTINS F-35 PROGRAM will include car-
rier trials of the U.S. Navys F-35Cdelayed
by an arrestor hook redesignand looming
deadlines for U.S. Marine Corps and U.S. Air
Force initial operational capability. Progress
is needed on the complex and essential au-
tomated logistics and mission-planning sys-
tem, which is behind schedule.

FAA
AIRBUS
NASA
DEUTSCHE POST
U.S. NAVY
GENE BLEVINS
BOEING
I N A MAJOR STEP TOWARD CI VI L
UNMANNED AIRCRAFT SYSTEMS, the FAA
is to release the small UAS rule for public
comment early in 2014. And a lot of com-
ments are expected, particularly about pri-
vacy. The FAA hopes to publish the nal rule
by 2015, enabling civil and commercial use
of UAS weighing up to 55 lb.

ORION
NASAS ORION CAPSULE is scheduled to
be sent 3,600 mi. into space in September
on its rst experimental ight. The test is
to validate structural modeling for reentry
of the capsule, which is designed to carry
astronauts beyond low Earth orbit. Eu-
rope, meanwhile, plans the long-anticipated
launch of its rst Galileo navigation satel-
lites in 2014.

P&W/CFM
PRATT & WHITNEYS PW1000G AND CFMS
LEAP-1A engines will have the eyes of hun-
dreds of operators and suppliers on them as
they y in 2014 on the Airbus A320neo and
GEs Boeing 747 testbed. The rst ight of
the Pratt-powered A320neo is scheduled for
October. Will the new engines live up to their
game-changing promise?
AIRBUS

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U.S. BUDGET
U.S. AVIATION AND AEROSPACE COULD
ENJOY SOME BUDGET STABILITY, thanks
to a bipartisan mini-budget bargain struck
in December. But the federal budget is set
to continue its downward slide, and com-
petition for scarce funding will grow more
intense. From the A-10 to the James Webb
Space Telescope and NextGen air trafc
modernization, 2014 could be a make-or-
break year.

CHINESE AIRCRAFT
CHINAS AIRCRAFT INDUSTRY is good at
announcing plans, but less so on execution.
The long-delayed Comac ARJ21 regional
jet is now scheduled to be certied by the
end of 2014, and assembly should begin on
the rst Comac C919 narrowbody airliner.
Watch also for progress on new helicopters
from Avicopter and assembly of Cessna
business jets in China.

FIGHTERS
DELAYS STILL DOG MAJOR FIGHTER
procurements worldwide, and India has yet
to nalize a contract for 126 Dassault Rafales,
but Brazil sprang a surprise at end of 2013
when it picked Saabs JAS 39E Gripen over
the Rafale and Boeings Super Hornet. The
Gripen E still has to pass a Swiss referen-
dum, while Denmark evaluates the Euro-
ghter Typhoon, JAS 39E and Super Hornet
as alternatives to the F-35.

NARROWBODIES
BOMBARDIERS CSERIES MADE ITS FIRST FLIGHT IN SEPTEMBER, and 2014 will be
a crucial year of testing that will determine when the new narrowbody jet enters ser-
vice. The program also needs to win more orders to gain market traction, against erce
opposition from Airbus and Boeing. Bombardier additionally has to certify its all-new
Learjet 85 in 2014.

M&A
MERGER AND ACQUISITION ACTIVITY
ground to a halt in the defense sector
in 2013 as U.S. budget uncertainty
paralyzed buyers and sellers alike. But
pent-up demand continues to grow as
companies look to position themselves
for a post-Afghanistan defense market.
With cash on hand, credit available and
more insight into Pentagon priorities,
odds favor an uptick in 2014.
AIRSHIPS
WILL 2014 BE THE YEAR OF THE AIR-
SHIP? Despite the collapse of the U.S.
Armys Long Endurance Multi Intelli-
gence Vehicle (LEMV) project, Northrop
Grumman still plans to pursue a cargo-
carrying airship project, and U.K.-based
Hybrid Air Vehicles has acquired the
LEMV prototype as a step toward test-
ing a large-scale prototype.

NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE
RICK RADELL
SAAB
NASA
NORTHROP GRUMMAN
COMAC

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more than 200,000 flying hours achieved. w
w
w
.
e
u
r
o
f
i
g
h
t
e
r
.
c
o
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Benin
Nigeria Nicaragua
Costa Rica
Mexico
Brazil
Honduras Mali
United States
Stabilized
Calm
Confict Engaged
High Tension
AVIATION WEEK
Defense & Security
N
E
W
S
Colombia
Global Tension Territorial Dispute Air Operations Cyber Attack Narco-Terrorism
Central

Israel
Lebanon
Armenia
Philippines
Taiwan
South Korea
Iraq
Iran
Yemen
Pakistan
India
Somalia
Sudan
Ph
Ph
IND
Indonesia
IND
IND
IND
Strait of
Malacca
Chechnya
Egypt
Tap the icon in the digital edition of AW&ST
to see the full, interactive world conict guide,
or go to AviationWeek.com/aerospace2014
N
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W
S
N
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W
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Afghanistan
Syria
Libya
Uganda
Congo
(DRC)
North Korea
Missile
Development
Insurgency Criminal Security Border Tension Regime Change Strategic Rivalry Weapons of Mass
Destruction
Piracy
China
N
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South
Sudan
Gaza
Central African
Republic

DEFENSE & SECURITY
to spread democracy or tolerance across the region or in-
deed to quell the sources of terrorism. Syria, Libya and Egypt
waver between rule by more or less secular strongmen and
takeover by Islamic radicals. Overwatch by ghters, helicop-
ters and surface-to-air missiles is now a routine feature of
global sporting events as well as G20 meetings.
On the other side of the globe, however, tensions are re-
minding many observers of the machinations that preceded
previous industrial-age wars such as World War 1. Chinas dec-
laration of an air defense identication zone was remarkable
not so much for its direct impact as for the fact that it took
observers by surprise.
That is a strong indicator of regional tension and potential
instability. While Chinas armed forces
are strong and growing rapidly, sym-
bolized by Chinas rst aircraft carrier,
the ex-Russian Liaoning (see photo) its
smaller regional rivals are also heavily
armed and have much longer experi-
ence in high-technology warfare. China
has relatively recently emerged from
decades of infantry-dominated peoples
war and, until a few years ago, had vir-
tually no experience of training and ex-
ercising with other nations forces.
But it is exactly that kind of qualita-
tive diference in the balance of forces
that increases the risk of miscalcula-
tion. This is particularly the case when
one side controls its media and public ex-
pression more tightly than the other. Chi-
nese defense managers, commanders and
leaders can read global media (and study
their intelligence reports) and read about
Chinas growing strength and the need to
develop doctrines, such as Air-Sea Battle,
and improve technologies (ballistic missile
defense, for instance) to counter their ex-
pansion. This selective view tends to down-
play the current strength of other regional
actors.
On the other hand, Chinese citizens and political actors
see a carefully stage-managed picture of their own strength,
via deliberate Internet leaks and state-run media. The result
is pressure on the military to show and, if necessary, use its
strength to assert regional presence.
Consequently, there is high risk in 2014 of some kind of
confrontation in the oceans around China. Modern sea war-
fare is complex and fast-moving, and battle groups can nd
themselves within weapon range of one another quickly and
unexpectedly. Commanders have to take decisions concern-
ing the safety of their own forces; links to shore may not
be available and superior commanders on land, beyond the
horizon, do not have access to a tactical picture.
This is part, too, of a shift back toward concerns about
long-range warfare. Involvement in low- to medium-intensity
internal operations, as the last decade has shown, is costly
and highly uncertain, with uncertainty increasing over time.
However, the means of long-range warfare and systems to
defend against it continue to become more sophisticated. A
key case in 2014 will be how the international community deals
with overtly nuclear North Korea and covertly nuclear Iran.
So far, only one country (Sweden) has had a well advanced
nuclear weapons program and given it up under pressure;
other nuclear powers have retained that status.
A nuclear deal may not be the end of the process, however.
Uzi Rubin, a player in the development of Israels missile de-
fenses, noted in an interview in Washington in 2013 that the
basics of missile guidance technology (navigation and attitude
reference) are now built into millions of phones and tablets so
that conventional-warhead ballistic missiles can now be aimed
at military targets, civilian infrastructure and public buildings,
and programmed to perform evasive maneuvers.
Guided missiles could take the place of strike aircraft more
widelyin the same way that Chinas anti-ship ballistic mis-
sile system has emerged as the bogeyman of Pacic conict,
but more so, since land targets are more
easily located.
Notably, one of very few all-new
weapons deployed in quantity by Russia
since the early 1990s is the Iskander tac-
tical missile. As currently deployed, the
Iskander-E export model is detuned to
stay within Missile Technology Control
Regime (MTCR) range and warhead-
size limits (as is its Chinese analog, the
M-20 or DF-12), but the MTCR is com-
ing under increasing pressure because
it did not anticipate unmanned air sys-
tems. Changes may be necessary, and
those leave it open to reinterpretation
or collapse.
Meanwhile, the U.S. is embroiled in a doc-
trinal debate that centers on the role of land
forces and is defined by four factors. The
defense budget is entering a downturn
unsurprisingly, since it has been running
at record levels. Despite the fact that the
U.S. military is often criticized for favoring
technology over people, the budget itself is
squeezed most of all by personnel costs. In
the long term, the Pentagon needs to operate
with fewer troops or more money, and the
latter appears unobtainable. The public and
policymakers alike are weary of land war after the longest such
engagement in U.S. history. However, land-war commanders
have no interest in a major contraction of their forces.
The result is an intraservice argument starring advocates
of strategic landpowera vision of a near-permanent state
of simmering global involvementversus advocates of an
arms-length strategy focused on traditional national interest
and the preservation of the global commons. But the hard
fact is that events in 2014 could easily render that discussion
moot, if the East China Sea should boil over. c
New Domains
Security focus shifts east
A decade of boots-on-the-ground war-
fare in the Middle East does not, in late
December, appear to have done much
C
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BUDGET RESTRAINTS
ARE THE NEW NORMAL.
SO WHY KEEP BUYING ACCESS
TO SPACE THE SAME OLD WAY?

The Big
Squeeze
Its worse than it looks
The near-panic statements about a hollow force and
warnings of catastrophic cutbacks belie the fact that military
spending remains, in ination-adjusted terms, at a level only
seen once before since World War II, during the Reagan-era
build-up. Including war funding (euphemistically termed
overseas contingency operations), spending in the 2000s
was far above Reagan-era levels.
In fact, military spending in scal 2014 will remain at all-
time high levels if $253 billion in personnel spending that
is not included in the Pentagon budget is countedactually
more than half the militarys personnel costs are carried of
the books in this way. The total includes Treasury payments
that cover an early-2000s increase in some pensions, the Vet-
erans Administration health care system and other benets,
such as disability pay and some tax exemptions.
Personnel costs increased sharply in the 2000s as Con-
gress repeatedly set higher pay raises than the Pentagon
requested. Health care costs also have risen dramatically
due to the compound efects of greater costs in that sector
and the expansion of Tricarethe Pentagons health manage-
ment organizationto cover more retired service members
for longer periods. Because Tricare premiums and benets
have been kept stable while commercial-market insurance
has become more expensive, more retired military people
have chosen it, further increasing its cost.
A remarkable feature of the personnel budget is that most
of the benetsincluding post-service Tricare eligibility and
pensions, which are projected to cost $87 billion in 2014, or
two-thirds more than basic payow to the 17% of military
personnel who enjoy retired status, having served 20 years
or more. The majority of these are ofcers. Other veterans
who have served less than 20 years enjoy far more meager
benets. However, the political reality is that the non-military
public is not widely aware of this crucial distinction, so rolling
back benets is troublesome.
Likewise, it is politically difcult for the services to shed
infrastructure such as operating bases or depots, which
often are large and located near small and midsize cities,
and hence are often the economic engines of those regions.
Base realignment and closure (BRAC) has been underway
since 1990 in ve rounds, closely overseen by Congress and
hedged about with rules that require the Pentagon to invest
in economic development projects and fund environmental
clean-ups. Todd Harrison, budget analysis director at the
Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA),
notes that the most recent BRAC roundin 2006-11cost
more up front than the previous four rounds put together.
The result is that BRAC cannot generate short-term sav-
ings.
Depots, and overhaul and maintenance in general, are gov-
erned by legal and contractual restrictions. By U.S. law, 50%
of Pentagon depot-level maintenance funds must be spent at
government depots. Also, contractors ercely defend what
they see as the legal principle that they own the intellectual
property in systems they developed for the military. Both
these measures sharply reduce the scope for competition in
military sustainment.
Finally, investment in new systems, in the past years of fat
budgets, has been dominated by two trends. There have been
a large number of failed systems that were either canceled
outright or have vastly exceeded their unit-cost targets, forcing
the services to cut back on production: The Lockheed Martin
F-22 and the DDG-1000 destroyer are two examples of the
latter. The largest single defense program of all time, the Joint
Strike Fighter, would have delivered 600 operational aircraft
by now170 this year aloneif it had stayed on schedule.
Moreover, many of the weapons that were developed and
elded in quantity were tailor-made for the Iraq and Afghan
warssuch as mine-resistant, ambush-protected vehicles
and unmanned air systems that cannot survive in the face of
DEFENSE PROFILES
A last-minute budget agreement will relieve
some pressure on the U.S. defense budget, but
cannot resolve basic structural problems that
have been growing since 2000. These are a
result of war costs, short-sighted decisions by
Congress, poor program management and the
failure of all parties, over the decade, to take ac-
tion that saves money in the long term.
The B-1B strategic
bomber is threatened
with retirement under
budget cuts, to avoid
more than $1 billion in
upgrade costs.
U
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S
.

A
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F
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United States
Estimated 2014 Budget
$612.5 billion ($847.9 billion including
non-Defense Department personnel costs)
4.4
1.4 million active, 850,000 reserve
Major operations in Iraq and
Afghanistan, deployments in 90-plus
countries
Percent of GDP
Personnel Under Arms
Deployments
advanced air defenses. They are of lim-
ited use in diferent combat scenarios.
The result, Harrison points out,
is that the defense budget downturn
that is now beginning is diferent from
the downturns after Korea, Vietnam
and the end of the Cold War, when the
accounts for retirement and person-
nel were a smaller fraction of the total
and the services were ush with new
equipment.
The upshot is that production bud-
gets and research and development
programs are both under pressure.
However, because previous R&D pro-
grams have failed and many of the
current programs have stretched into
decades, the services have no modern
systems to buy in many key mission areas (such as U.S. Air
Force ghters and Navy destroyers). This has led to a situa-
tion in which the ratio of procurement to R&D in the 2000s
bumped along at a value between 1:1 and 1.5:1that is, be-
tween a third and a half of acquisition funding was R&D. This
balance needs to revert to a more typical historical level (at
which procurement is 2-3 times R&D) if the current forces are
to be recapitalized, but there is no money to do that.
As a consequence, the services are looking at major cut-
backs to forces and activities in order to protect moderniza-
tion accounts.
In 2014, the Air Force most likely will continue with plans
to dispose of entire eets of aircraft rather than salami-slic-
ing the numbers of every type in its inventory. The latter is
incremental at best and counterproductive at worst, because
shrinking a force tends to increase its cost per unit. With the
former strategy, the Air Force not only reduces numbers,
but also eliminates logistics and training pipelines, dedicated
infrastructure (such as training simulators) and future mod-
ernization costs.
The last item is particularly important for one eet on the
services chopping blockthe 59 KC-10A Extender tankers.
Retiring the KC-10s is counterintuitive, since they are just
over half as old as the Boeing KC-135 force and carry more
fuel. But the tankers have not been modernized since they
were delivered. Between now and 2020, they will be increas-
ingly restricted in oceanic airspace unless they are retrotted
with new communication, navigation and air-trafc manage-
ment avionics.
The same applies to the B-1B. A September 2013 Congres-
sional Research Service report identies $1.4 billion in mod-
ernization projects for the bomber, more than $1 billion of that
being in scal 2014 and subsequent budgets$28 million for
each combat-capable aircraft. The slightly larger B-52 eet
needs only 20% of that investmentso it is the B-1, not the air-
craft that it was once intended to replace, which is vulnerable.
Another eet at riskand the most controversial of the
USAFs planned cutsis the A-10 close-air-support aircraft.
Before the sequester hit, Air Force plans called for 230 of these
rugged and heavily armed aircraft, mostly acquired in the
1970s, to remain in service through 2030. Service leaders now
argue that the CAS mission has been performed efectively in
10 years of warfare by F-16s, F-15s, gunships and UAS, and by
Navy, Marine and allied ghters, and that the specialized A-10
is not a critical need. However, a political movement to force
the Air Force to retain the aircraft is
gathering momentum.
The Northrop Grumman Global
Hawk Block 30 force also is being tar-
geted. It is expensive, and does not
match the veteran Lockheed Martin
U-2 in its ability to carry (and provide
power to) high-performance sensors.
Its electro-optical payload has had a
difficult development, and it is little
more survivable than the much cheap-
er General Atomics MQ-9 Reaper. The
revelation of the Northrop Grumman
RQ-180 stealth UAS points to an-
other Air Force motive for killing the
Block 30: It needs the money for the
units that will operate the new aircraft.
During 2014, it will become clear
whether the Air Force is going to have to cut even deeper to
protect its priority programs. The next target will be its prized
ghter force. Today, that force faces an increasing challenge
because mechanically scanned radars build with 1980s-era
technology risk being out-ranged by active, electronically
scanned array (AESA) systems. The rst AESA-equipped
Chinese ghter, the Chengdu J-10B, has just surfaced in what
appears to be a production version and can be jammed by
widely available digital radio-frequency memory (DRFM)
technology. The only AESA-equipped aircraft in the Air Force
operational inventory are F-22s and some F-15s.
The Air Force has upgrade programs on the books for
F-15Es, F-15C/Ds and F-16C/Ds, incorporating AESAs radars
and other changes. The F-15E radar modernization program
has already proceeded into its second low-rate initial-pro-
duction batch and the sixth batch of AESA radars for the
F-15C/D was ordered in June, at which time 46 radars had
been delivered. However, the F-15s also need a new electronic
warfare systemdubbed the Eagle Passive/Active Warning
and Survivability System (Epawss)and the Air Force is
only in the early stages of funding this efort.
As for the F-16, the Air Force has been trying to assemble
an international upgrade program called Combat Avionics
Programmed Extension Suite (Capes) with costs shared be-
tween the U.S. and international partners. The program is
managed by Lockheed Martin, which has selected Northrop
Grumman to provide a new AESA radar. It also includes a
new mission computer and improved cockpit displays. But
Capes has stalled due to budget cuts, while a rival upgrade
with BAE Systems as prime and a Raytheon radaris mov-
ing briskly towards a full-scale go-ahead for the South Ko-
rean air force.
If Epawss and Capes are truncated or abandoned, the F-15
and F-16 eets face obsolescence rather than remaining in
service in large numbers until 2030, as had been planned.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Navys aviation community is ap-
proaching the point where the Boeing F/A-18 Super Hornet
line starts to shut down, with some components going out
of production early in 2014. However, the F-35C has not yet
landed on an aircraft carrier and is not scheduled to do so
until the summer, and the Navy has reduced its planned F-
35B/C buy rate from 50 to 40 aircraft per year, saving about
$1.2 billion annually. Its ability to keep decks full in the late
2020s will depend on extending the life of the Super Hornet.
The Navys next big decision concerns the shape of its Un-

DEFENSE PROFILES
manned Carrier Launched Airborne Surveillance and Strike
(Uclass) programspecically, how stealthy an aircraft the
service can aford to develop on an ambitious schedule. Gen-
eral Atomics Aeronautical Systems has set the low bar with
an enlarged development of its Avenger, while Lockheed
Martin and Northrop Grumman have shown very stealthy
designs based on RQ-170 and X-47B technology. The Navy
is still working toward a source selection by the end of 2014.
Outside aviation, the Navy is continuing to reduce its am-
bitions in terms of shipbuilding, in light of three bad experi-
ences (the DDG-1000 debacle, major overruns in the Ford-
class aircraft carrier and the expensive and controversial
Littoral Combat Ship). The relatively successful Virginia-
class submarine program is planned to continueinclud-
ing a hull stretch accommodating up to 28 cruise missiles,
with a number of design options under considerationuntil
the SSBN-X replacement for the Ohio-class ballistic-missile
submarine takes its place in the shipyards, with construction
starting in 2021.
More progress will be made in 2014 on the Navys most im-
portant surface combatant program, the improved Flight III
variant of the Burke-class destroyer. One of two Burkes
planned for procurement in 2016, and all subsequent ships
(at a rate of two per year) are to be Flight IIIs, with a new
radar and more capability for missile defense. However, the
design has involved difcult tradeofs involving cost, technol-
ogy and the ability of the hull to accommodate more systems.
Most recently, an X-band AESA tracking radar has been re-
placed by a less costly and lighter version of the mechanically
scanned SPQ-9B, which the Navy maintains will be efective
against future missile threats.
As for land forces, the immediate questions are size and
readiness. Todd Harrisons CSBA research has punched a
hole in the concept of the golden ratiothe idea that the
services share equally in budgets, downturns and upturns.
The Army (and the Marines) gained numbers in the 2000s
and are now losing them at a rate that has their leaders con-
cerned; hence the development of the concept of strategic
landpower, which aims to justify permanent land forces on
a similar scale to those built up for the Middle East wars. c
Delay on Delay
Fixing Canadas procurement problems
Canadas armed forces, facing a fa-
miliar combination of a declining budget
and aging eets, have a third problem: a
lack of public and political condence in
the nations acquisition process after a
series of failures and embarrassments,
including a 28-year efort to replace
naval Sea King helicopters that has al-
ready seen one program canceled, and a
second one started that is now running
at least four years late. The acquisition
of four trouble-plagued ex-Royal Navy
submarines has been another
public problem.
The largest current program, the replace-
ment of the air forces Boeing F/A-18A/B Hor-
net fighters, was removed from the depart-
ment of national defense (DND) in 2012 and
reassigned to a secretariat within the depart-
ment of public works and government services,
after it became clear that the DND had violated
the spirit (at least) of procurement regulations
in order to justify a sole-source Joint Strike
Fighter buy.
The public works department has spent
2013 gathering information on the capabilities, cost and in-
dustrial participation potential of three alternative ght-
ers Rafale, Typhoon and Super Hornet. Saab declined
to respond on the grounds that Canada has not committed
to any kind of formal competition. Neither has Canada is-
sued a new statement of requirementsthe last version,
produced in 2010, was worded to eliminate any candidate
other than JSF.
With federal elections due in 2015, Canadas government
has the option of trying to settle the issue quickly, with a 2014
competition, or pushing the decision beyond the elections.
Also on the desk of the public works department is the
acquisition of a new xed wing search and rescue (FWSAR)
aircraft to replace CC-115 Bufalos and CC-130 Hercules. It
was originally supposed to deliver aircraft in 2006, but a draft
request for proposals was issued in August and a nal RFP is
expected in early 2014. The Alenia C-27J and Airbus CN235
are considered the leading candidates, with the more costly
Lockheed C-130J a possible alternative.
Another massive program on the horizon is the Canadian
Surface Combatant, a class of 15 rst-line, multi-role war-
ships to replace the navys Iroquois-class destroyers and
Halifax patrol frigates. The ships will be built in Canada,
most likely to an existing design: Frances DCNS is ofering
the Fremm hull.
Also in difculty is the armys Close Combat
Vehicle requirement for a highly mobile, well-
protected vehicleeither an 8 X 8-wheel or a
tracked vehicle. The program was announced
in 2009, but no selection has been made; some
sources report that the army intends to aban-
don it because of increasing costs.
The procurement problems have caused the
government to consider sweeping reforms, with
two options on the table. One is to expand the
use of ad hoc secretariats, already used for the
warship and ghter programs. The other, more
far-reaching option is to develop a single defense
procurement agency, akin to Swedens FMV. c
Canada
Estimated 2014 budget
$19 billion (U.S. $18 billion)
1.3
68,000 regular, 27,000 reserve
NATO Training Mission in
Afghanistan, Congo, Darfur, Mali
Percent of GDP
Deployments
Estimated 2014 budget

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Nation
Estimated budget
192.5 billion ($265.4 billion)
(2011, excluding Denmark)
1.55 (2011, excluding Denmark)
Bosnia-Herzegovina, Horn of Africa,
Mali, Somalia
Percent of GDP
Deployments
Nicholas Fiorenza Brussels
Making Do
European spending continues to slip
EU defense spending has been
steadily declining since 2006, with the
1.55% of GDP and 3.17% of total govern-
ment expenditure it represents being
the lowest levels since that year.
Five years of reductions in both
uniformed and civilian force numbers
have not reduced the budget share
consumed by personnel costs. Those
accounted for 51.1% of total EU defense
spending in 2011, around the same level
as it has been since 2009, but spending
on operations and maintenance rose by
3.6% to 23.5% of the total. At the same
time, defense spending per soldier in-
creased by almost 4% to 124,000, while
defense investment per soldier fell by
nearly 10% to 24,000 in 2011.
These negative trends are likely to
continue as EU members have cut their
defense budgets even further since 2011.
The only major EU member still spend-
ing over 2% of GDP on defense is the
U.K., but it is also reducing budgets.
The EDA does see some bright spots,
such as progress in reaching three
out of four voluntary benchmarks for
defense investment it set in 2007. Re-
search and technology (R&T) spending
stopped its slide since 2006, rising from
a low point of 1.07% in 2010 to 1.12% in
2012, still well below the 2% agreed in
2007. The share of European collabora-
tive R&T expenditure in total defense
R&T spending also rose, to 13.2%, albeit
still below the 20% benchmark.
As a share of total equipment pro-
curement, European collaborative pro-
curement increased by 4% to 25.2%, the
highest level since 2006, compared to
the 35% benchmark. But defense in-
vestment spending on equipment
procurement and research and devel-
opmentfell to 19.2% in 2011, below the
2006 level, after being above the 20%
benchmark in 2007-2010.
Recent military operations over Lib-
ya and in Mali have once again shown
gaps in EU capabilities such as strate-
gic airlift, air-to-air refuelling (AAR),
and intelligence and surveillance. The
Airbus Military A400M, the rst pro-
duction version of which was delivered
to the French air force in August, will
go a long way toward lling the gap in
strategic airlift. If it had been available
for the French-led Operation Serval
in Mali, the A400M would have been
able to airlift all the equipment actually
deployed, including material moved by
roll-on, roll-off ships and leased An-
tonov An-124 and An-225 transports, ac-
cording to Damien Allard, the A400Ms
market development manager.
To ll the AAR gap, the EDA is pur-
suing various possible solutions. Eforts
to reduce fragmentation of Europes
military tanker fleet have had some
success, with the EDA, Italy and the
Movement Coordination Center Eu-
rope jointly preparing the rst collec-
tive European AAR clearance trial with
an Italian KC-767A. France and Sweden
participated with Mirage 2000, Rafale
and Gripen ghters at Italys Decimo-
mannu air base on Sept. 5-12, 2013. Fur-
ther clearance campaigns, with other
types of aircraft being refueled, are
planned. Another solution proposed by
the EDA is acquisition of A400M AAR
kits, which France is already doing.
The most ambitious possible solu-
tion is the joint acquisition of multi-role
tanker transports, with a 10-nation ini-
tiative led by the Netherlands aiming at
an initial operational capability by 2020.
The EDA is seeking to fill other
gaps by developing capabilities with
both military and civil applications,
proposing projects including remotely
piloted aircraft (RPA) systems, satellite
communications (Satcom) and cyber
defense. The EDA sees an urgent re-
quirement for a medium-altitude, long-
endurance (MALE) UAS. For Satcom,
the objective is to develop a future dual
civil-military capability by 2025, when
the current ve separate national pro-
grams in the EU are expected to end. c
DEFENSE PROFILES
Defense spending in Europe has taken a marked
downward turn, according to gures released by the
European Defense Agency (EDA) in September 2013,
with investments being hit particularly hard. In 2011,
total defense expenditures by EU member states
excluding Denmark, which has opted out of the EUs
Common Security and Defense Policy, and Croatia,
which became a member in mid-2013fell by 1 billion
to 192.5 billion ($265 billion), a drop of over 2%.
Smart defense could
mean that the EU moves
into shared operations, such
as NATOs Strategic Airlift
Capability force of C-17s.
NATO

United Kingdom
Estimated 2014-15 budget
32.6 billion ($53.6 billion)
2.5
156,690
Afghanistan, Ascension Island,
Balkans, Brunei (training), Canada
(training), Caribbean, Cyprus, Falkland
Islands, Germany, Gibraltar, Kenya
(training), Philippines (humanitarian
support), United Arab Emirates, U.S.
(training)
Percent of GDP
as of October 2013
Deployments
Tony Osborne London
Decision Time
U.K. likely to be more focused on Afghan drawdown
than extending its capabilities in 2014
Those operations have reshaped
the U.K. armed forces. The British
Armys counter-insurgency strategy,
codenamed Operation Entirety, has
molded training, equipment and doc-
trine to prepare troops for the theater.
But now commanders face the chal-
lenge of preparing forces for readiness
for contingency operations at a time
when the defense budget is shrinking,
as the U.K. Defense Ministry puts in-
creasing emphasis on reservists as part
of the Future Force 2020 program.
Planning and decision-making are
likely to dominate proceedings during
2014. The Afghan theater withdrawal
will increase in tempo, and will likely
put a major strain on logistics and air
transport. But few real decisions on
procurement and new capabilities
will likely be made in the coming 12
months. Instead, senior officers will
waitprobably with some trepida-
tionfor the next Strategic Defense
and Security Review in 2015.
Perhaps one of the only exceptions to
this will be the U.K.s long-awaited rst
major purchase of the Lockheed Mar-
tin F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. With four
aircraft already ordered for the opera-
tional training and evaluation program,
the Main Gate 4 decision, expected for
several months, appears to have been
pushed into 2014. This will rm up plans
for the rst squadron of British F-35s,
and will be major step toward rebuild-
ing the U.K.s carrier strike capability
one of the highest-priority programs for
the U.K. Defense Ministry.
In late October, the contract for the
U.K.s two new Queen Elizabeth-class
aircraft carriers was renegotiated to
get better terms for taxpayers. Ofcials
said that under the original deal, 90%
of every pound of cost overruns were
paid by the taxpayer, and only 10% by
the contractor. As a result, the cost of
the carriers has almost doubledfrom
3.65 billion ($6 billion) to 6.2 billion
since the contract with the Aircraft
Carrier Alliance (ACA), the consortium
building the vessels, was signed back in
2006. But now the price escalation is
being shared equally between the De-
fense Ministry and ACA.
The carrier program is making vis-
ible progress, the first shipHMS
Queen Elizabethshould get water
under her keel during the summer,
before work begins on the second ship,
HMS Prince of Wales.
The JSF program is part of a growing
relationship with the U.S., recently ex-
tended to airborne intelligence-gather-
ing with the Royal Air Force, now part of
the RC-135 Rivet Joint program, with the
November arrival in the U.K. of the rst
of three aircraft. The Lancaster House
relationship with France is likely to in-
tensify, as more interests align. A major
sticking point, the development of Fu-
ture Anti-Ship Guided Weapon Heavy,
known as the ANL in France, has been
given the green light in Paris, and there
are signs pointing to greater cooperation
in the deployment of UAVs, with the po-
tential for partnerships for operating the
General Atomics MQ-9 Reaper.
However, development of a Europe-
an-grown medium-altitude long endur-
ance (MALE) unmanned aerial vehicle
is still some way of, with joint negotia-
tions shelved. Even so, closer coopera-
tion with Europe is likely to be in the
cards, with the U.K. playing a greater
role within the European Defense
Agency and its ambitions for pooling
and sharing assets and capabilities.
Hopes to radically overhaul defense
procurement by reforming the minis-
trys Defense Equipment & Support
(DE&S) procurement agency into a gov-
ernment-owned, contractor-operated
(GoCo) model in a bid to nd efciencies
have run into trouble. Two of the three
consortia bidding to run the operation
pulled out, leaving the project at a dead
end. The GoCo bid was formally aban-
doned on Dec. 10; ministers announced
they will push ahead with the alternate
DE&S+ option, with the organization
becoming an arms-length ofshoot of
the Defense Ministry from April 2014. c
By this time next year, the last British combat
troops should be leaving Afghanistan, ending more
than a decade of combat operations in that theater.
The U.K. has renegotiated the
contract for two new aircraft
carriers, with resulting cost growth.
AIRCRAFT CARRIER ALLIANCE

Amy Svitak Paris
Status Quo
Despite boost in ops tempo,
French defense budget remains at
The nations new military program
lawa 190 billion ($256 billion) bud-
get for the 2014-19 period approved by
French lawmakers Dec. 10will see the
country fund defense at roughly 31.4
billion per year until 2016, after which
annual spending is to increase slightly
for the 2017-19 period. Of the total 190
billion earmarked for defense, roughly
6.1 billion will be raised through the
one-time sale of state assets, including
real estate and radio-frequency spec-
trum.
The defense
mi ni strys fl at
spendi ng pl an
comes despi te
ongoing opera-
t i ons agai ns t
Islamist insur-
gents in Mali and,
more recentl y,
support for U.N.
peackeeping op-
erations in the
Central African
Republic.
Key aerospace platforms that will
see reduced or delayed orders as a re-
sult of at spending include Dassault
Aviations Rafale combat aircraft,
Eurocopters Tiger and NH90 heli-
copters, and Airbuss A400M tactical
airlifter and Multirole Tanker Trans-
port (MRTT). So far, French defense
officials say they remain committed
to a decade-old plan to buy 50 A400M
transports, despite the nations ag-
ging economy and stagnant budget en-
vironment. In mid-November, however,
ofcials announced a plan to trim 600
million from the national defense bud-
get in 2013 to help cover 3 billion in
unforeseen government expenditures,
including nearly 578 million associ-
ated with ongoing operations in Mali.
Although the French air force took
delivery of its rst two A400Ms in the
fall of 2013, Airbus says the govern-
ment has asked it to push the planned
arrival of a third into early 2014. But
the company is already anticipating a
revised A400M order calendar from
the French, which will see deliveries
drop 57% through 2017. The move is ex-
pected to necessitate modications to
the aircraft production line and trigger
contract renegotiations with procure-
ment authority Occar, as well as the
seven European nations that bought
into the 26 billion program.
In the meantime, while Frances
50-aircraft target remains, the govern-
ment is committing funding to just 15
A400Ms through 2017. At that point,
Airbus can expect several years with-
out deliveries, says Gen. Denis Mer-
cier, French air force chief of staf. A
combined budget of 3.9 billion is to be
spent over the next six years for both
aerial transport and refueling aircraft,
including the A400M. In addition to
the two airlifters delivered in 2013,
the revised schedule will see the air
force take delivery of four in 2014 and
2015, three in 2016 and two in 201720
fewer aircraft than planned in the pre-
vious program law.
Of the other large programs afected
in the new budget, Rafale deliveries will
be nearly halved over the program law
period. Eurocopter will sell fewer Ti-
ger attack helicopters and decelerate
production of NH90 troop transports
through the end of the decade.
France will spend 3.7 billion on the
two Eurocopter programs through
2019, a gure that incorporates an in-
dustrial commitment signed in May
that slows production of a second
tranche of 34 NH90 orders. Spread-
ing out deliveries, which will total 38
in 2019 and 68 by 2024, delays the im-
provement of our eet of maneuvering
helicopters, says Gen. Bertrand Ract-
Madoux, French army chief of staff.
That will force the ground army to
keep its Pumas, which are approach-
ing the limits of their obsolescence, be-
yond 2025, at which point they will be
almost a half-century old, as well as the
Cougars and Caracals beyond 2030.
Paris plans to reduce its buy of 80
Tigers to just 60 during the program
law period, though Eurocopter will
be partially compensated with more
conversions of the helicopters to the
new attack configuration. While the
reduction amounts to a 25% decrease
in orders, EADS (now known as Air-
bus) says the value of the reduction to
the company is closer to 10%, a cut the
manufacturer is positioned to absorb.
The planned buy of MRTT aerial
refuelers is also being reduced, to 12
from 14, with deliveries of just two of
the modified A330s funded through
2019. c
DEFENSE PROFILES
Under growing pressure to tighten budgets,
France is slowing deliveries of major military
equipment and stretching out development of
new platforms over the next six years.
France
Estimated 2014-15 budget
31.4 billion ($43 billion)
2.3
228,656
Afghanistan, Central African Republic,
Chad, Cte dIvoire, Djibouti (anti-
piracy), Lebanon, Mali
Percent of GDP
as of October 2013
Deployments
Deliveries of Dassault Aviations
Rafale combat aircraft will be
nearly halved under Frances
revised defense budget.
DASSAULT AVIATION

Russia
Estimated 2014 Budget
2.489 trillion rubles ($76.6 billion)
3.4
766,055
Percent of GDP
as of December 2012
Maxim Pyadushkin Moscow
Feed the Bear
Russia sustains double-digit growth
Defense expenditures will grow by
18.4%, up to 2.489 trillion rubles ($76.6
billion) next year and by a further 21.6%
(up to 3.027 trillion rubles) and 11.6%
(up to 3.378 trillion rubles) in 2015 and
2016, respectively. Defense spending is
likewise growing as a share of the bud-
get and of the gross domestic product
(GDP). The defense portion
of the federal budget will
steadily increase from 15.6%
in 2013 to 17.8% in 2014, 19.7%
in 2015 and 20.6% in 2016. As
a share of GDP, defense will
amount to 3.4% in 2014 and
3.8% and 3.9% in the two sub-
sequent yearsa signicant
jump from 3.2% in 2013.
As it grows, Russias de-
fense budget is becoming
less transparent. The defense com-
mittee of the State Duma notes that
less than half of the 2014 defense bud-
getjust 1.012 trillion rublesremains
public, and this proportion will shrink
further. The committee reported that
the allocated budget spending gen-
erally makes it possible to reach the
major strategic goals of the develop-
ment of the armed forces of the Rus-
sian Federation, but emphasized that
the available budget structure does not
provide enough information to proper-
ly analyze the expenditures, including
those on new weapons and equipment.
Nevertheless, Russias armed forces
will continue their transformation
which started a few years agoto a
smaller, but more efective and combat-
ready structure. The size of the armed
forces is ofcially dened as one million,
but is actually smaller. The real end-
strength of the services on Jan. 1, 2013,
was 766,055, including 10,000 civilian
personnel, according to the recent re-
port of Russias Audit Chamber. The
defense ministry plans to reach a 95-
100% stafng level by the end of 2014.
Government policy still states that
Russias vast territory rules out a
switch to a fully professional army, as
recently conrmed by defense minister
Sergey Shoygu. However, the number
of paid volunteers will be increased to
425,000 by 2017, from 205,000 today.
Volunteers will completely replace
conscripts in combat operations by
2020, according to the minister.
Force restructuring is being accom-
panied by massive rearmament, under
the 10-year, 19-trillion-ruble defense
procurement program adopted in 2010.
This program includes new weapons for
the interior ministry and other paramil-
itary organizations, as well as the main
armed forces. It continues unafected
by the economic uncertainty that forced
the government to cut some civil expen-
dituresa 5% reduction was discussed,
but did not occur. Rather, some of the
expenditures under the program have
been postponed to 2017-20.
This postponement is not only a
temporary budget x but is also a re-
spite for a defense industry that is un-
expectedly overloaded with domestic
orders. After scraping by on export-
led business for two decades, Russian
defense manufacturers are working
hard to meet surging demand from
their government. Some products that
were designed for exportfrom Tal-
war-class frigates to Sukhoi Su-30MKI
ghtershave been adapted and inte-
grated into the Russian military. But
executing Russian military contracts
has meant rapid modernization and
expansion of production facilities as
well as the rebuilding of design and
engineering capabilities that had de-
teriorated in the lean years.
Almost a quarter of the 2010-20 de-
fense procurement program budget
about 4.5 trillion rubleswill be spent
on the air force. About 85% of this is
for new aircraft and weapons, with the
goal of a eet comprising 70% modern
equipment by 2020. This includes the
delivery of 600 xed-wing aircraft and
1,000 helicopters. Under the program,
the military has placed orders for 246
xed-wing aircraft in addition to 130 air-
craft ordered in the late 2000s.
The xed-wing backlog is dominated
by Sukhoi Su-34 ghter-bombers and
Su-30M2/SM (domestic versions of the
Su-30MKI) and Su-35 multi-role ght-
ers. Sukhois rival, MiG, has had to set-
tle for a single order, for 24 MiG-29K
ship-based ghters from the Russian
navy. The variety of the types being or-
dered shows that these purchases are
the result of lobbying eforts from local
manufacturers now merged under the
United Aircraft Corp. (notably, Irkut
and KnAAPO, which make different
versions of the Sukhoi series).
Sukhois leadership of the T-50 PAK
FA program will keep the company in
pole position. The air force is expected
Russias government does not plan to cut its
military expenditures, even in the face of economic
stagnation. The draft federal budgets for 2014 and
for 2015-16, approved in the rst reading by the State
Duma at the end of October, continue to call for double-
digit increases in spending on national defense despite
the overall budget decit planned for these years.
Zapad-13 exercises in western Rus-
sia included Project 1232.2 Zubr
hovercraft. Some of these vehicles,
the largest of their type in the
world, have been sold to China.
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Nicholas Fiorenza Brussels
Afghan Effect
Withdrawal contributes to
German budget savings
German spending on international
deployments also will fall, with the end
of the International Security Assistance
Force (ISAF) mission in Afghanistan
at the end of 2014. As German forces
return, the trend toward rising
costs, especially for maintenance
of materiel, will reverse.
The drawdown accelerated
in the last months of 2013, with
daily flights of leased Antonov
An-124 transports carrying
German equipment home. The
Bundeswehr plans to withdraw
some 1,200 vehicles and 4,800
containers from Afghanistan.
Even battle-damaged vehicles are
being returned to Germany and
prepared for future deployments, along
with the rest of the repatriated kit.
The last German infantry rotations
to Afghanistan, starting in mid-2013,
were equipped with the Infanterist der
Zukunft-Erweitertes System (Future
Soldier-Expanded System, IdZ-ES), de-
liveries of which began in March 2013.
The withdrawal was supported by Ti-
ger combat helicopters and NH90 for-
ward medical evacuation helicopters.
The t ransf ormat i on of t he
Bundeswehr is not expected to be com-
plete before 2017, but its new structure
has emerged. The army will have two
mechanized divisions with six deploy-
able, sustainable and rotatable brigades
(three per division), plus the Division
Schnelle Krafte rapid deployment forc-
es. The latter combines the parachute
brigade, special forces, combat and
transport helicopter regiments.
The Luftwaffe will have five tacti-
cal squadrons, of which three will be
equipped with Euroghter Typhoons
and two with Tornados, plus transport,
helicopter and air-defense squadrons.
The navy will have two flotillas, one
with two frigate squadrons and the oth-
er with minehunter, corvette and sub-
marine squadrons, newly created naval
special forces and a marine battalion for
boarding and vessel protection.
New equipment for the transformed
Bundeswehr includes the rst produc-
tion versions of the KMW-Rheinmetall
Puma armored infantry fighting ve-
hicle, scheduled to be delivered to the
Army in 2014, with the rst Airbus Mil-
itary A400M transport to be delivered
to the Luftwaffe in November 2014.
Finding a replacement for the canceled
Euro Hawk high-altitude long-endur-
ance unmanned aerial system will be
complicated by negotiations to form a
grand coalition between the Christian
Democrats, who won the September
elections, and the Social Democrats,
who have placed legal and humanitar-
ian conditions on the use of unmanned
aerial vehicles. c
DEFENSE PROFILES
The German governments draft defense budget for
2014 is around 32.8 billion ($45 billion), a 400 million
decrease compared to 2013. The budget will be reduced
to around 32.1 billion by 2016 as the Bundeswehr
Germanys armed forcesreduces personnel in line
with its transformation. End-strength has already been
cut to near its planned maximum of 185,000.
to start T-50 joint evaluation trials by
the end of 2013, and series production is
to start in 2016. The military reportedly
plans to purchase 74 new ghters (in-
cluding prototypes and pre-production
aircraft) through 2020. United Aircraft
Corp. will invest 25 billion rubles (about
$780 million) in the creation of a T-50
assembly line at Sukhois facility on
Komsomolsk-on-Amur.
The navys major procurement efort
is the Borei-class nuclear-powered sub-
marine, armed with R-30 Bulava inter-
continental ballistic missiles (AW&ST
Nov. 11/18, p. 48). The first sub of the
classYury Dolgorukiyentered ser-
vice at the very end of 2012. Delivery of
the second oneAlexander Nevskyis
expected this year. The navy also ex-
pects new Yasen-class nuclear attack
submarines, Kilo-class diesel-electric
subs, new frigates and corvettes.
Air defenses are being reinforced
with deliveries of the S-400 long-range
surface-to-air missile system, with
its associated 55Zh6ME radar com-
plex, including VHF radar to counter
stealth threats (AW&ST Sept. 2, p. 28),
and Pantsir-S1 short-range gun-missile
systems to protect the S-400s them-
selves. Ground forces will receive new
tanks, armored vehicles and artillery
systems. c
Germany
Estimated Budget
32.8 billion ($45 billion)
1.2
186,459
Afghanistan, Congo, Horn of Africa,
Kosovo, Lebanon, Mali, Senegal,
South Sudan, Sudan, Turkey,
Uzbekistan
Percent of GDP
The Puma infantry ghting vehicle
should enter service with the
Bundeswehr in 2014.
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After the 2011 Operation Unied Protector in Libya, for ex-
ample, Italian military leaders noted the high cost of mount-
ing long patrols at a considerable distance using supersonic
ghters. This year, the Italian air force will be pursuing at
least two new programs unveiled in 2013 and aimed at reduc-
ing the cost of persistent operations.
While European multinational attempts to develop a medi-
um-altitude, long-endurance (MALE) unmanned air system
have been bogged down for years, Italys Finmeccanica qui-
etly worked with Piaggio Aero to develop a UAS based on
the P.180 Avanti business aircraft.
Designated the P.1HH HammerHead, it was supported in
secret by Italys defense ministry, through a mix of nancing,
personnel and access to facilities, until it was announced at
the Paris air show in June, along with plans to acquire at least
ten systems. The Avantis unique conguration provides the
P.1HH with an unusual combination of high transit speed (com-
pared with other MALE UAVs), high altitude and the ability to
loiter at low speed. Finmeccanicas Selex-ES divisionwhich
produces the Falco series, the largest and most capable all-Eu-
ropean UAScontributed automated ight control, mission
management, communications and sensors. This facilitated
rapid progress and led to a rst ight in November.
A production-standard aircraft is expected to y this year.
It will be tted with a complete sensor suite and denitive
airframe modications, including an extended wing, ventral
sensor bay (used for the Selex Seaspray 7300E radar in the
basic conguration) and fuselage fuel tank. Italy is looking
for an initial operational capability in 2016-17.
Another new program start is the MC-27J gunshipmak-
ing Italy the third nation, after the U.S. and Jordan, to launch
development of one of these very specialized aircraft. Six of the
air arms 12 Alenia C-27Js will be converted into MC-27Js by
Finmeccanica divisions Alenia-Aermacchi and Selex-ES, with
armament systems provided by ATK Defense. The aircraft are
expected to be assigned to support Italian Special Forces units.
Three of the aircraft will undergo the full conversion pro-
gram, while the other three will be congured to take the sys-
tem when required. The deal is expected to include develop-
ment, evaluation, certication and logistic support. A single
prototype, separate from the MC-27J demonstrator, will be
used to test the systems. The mission control system and ar-
mament are palletized and battery-powered, independent of
the aircrafts electrical systems. Future enhancements could
include the integration of small guided weapons.
Turkey, meanwhile, continues to cooperate globally with
many diferent partnersraising some eyebrows last year,
to say the least, by announcing the selection of the Chinese
HQ-9 surface-to-air missile, equivalent to the Russian S-300, in
preference to U.S., European or Russian products. In response
to criticism, Turkey said that only China Precision Machinery
Import and Export Corp. was willing to meet its requirements
for industrial participation and technology transfer, and was
also ofering the lowest price, estimated at $4 billion.
The U.S. Congress is trying to stall the deal by withholding
any funds to integrate the HQ-9 into U.S. air defense or com-
mand and control systems, but has to tread carefully because
Turkey is one of the few Joint Strike Fighter partner nations
that has not cut or delayed its orders.
Turkey is also an important customer for other U.S. sectors.
The Sikorsky Black Hawk helicopter was selected in 2011 as
the preferred bidder for the Turkish Utility Helicopter Pro-
gram (TUHP), against competition from AgustaWestland. The
program calls for 109 helicopters to be built in Turkey, using
new avionics developed by Aselsan; negotiations over technol-
ogy transfer and intellectual property rights are still underway.
Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) is exploiting hard-won
experience and low engineering costs to pursue development
of the Predator-sized Anka UAS for the countrys air force.
The defense ministry ordered ten more Block B Anka systems
in October, with greater performance, satellite-based beyond-
line-of-sight communications and control and a high-denition
camera. However, like the U.S., Turkey is looking for a new
engine now that Chinas Avic International has acquired Ger-
man engine manufacturer Thielert. The defense ministry has
also ordered the rst all-Turkish manned military aircraft in
80 years, in the form of an initial batch of Hurkus trainers.
Sweden has been Europes go-it-alone pacesetter for de-
cades. While Saabhas had success in launching the JAS 39E
Gripen, with orders from Brazil and Switzerland, other seg-
ments are working harder in the face of ongoing budget cuts.
Notably, development of the very advanced Kockums A26
submarine has been delayed, with the rst two vessels not due
to enter service until 2020 and 2021, according to Swedish
media reports; design had started under an earlier contract,
but the construction contract has been delayed. Other Swedish
reports have pointed to national frustration over the fact that
parent company Thyssen-Krupp Marine Systems German
submarine yard HDW, rather than Kockums, was selected in
November to build two new submarines for Singaporewhich
until now has operated refurbished submarines from Sweden.
This will tend to raise the cost of the A26. c
Innovation On
The Cheap
European nations explore
new approaches
Across Europe, nations are taking
innovative approaches to foster
their home defense industries despite
limited budgets, without relying on
complex international programs.
Evolution of TAIs
Anka unmanned air
system will continue
with an improved
Block B variant.
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Still, ghter programs are the most valuable and hotly con-
tested deals. A dramatic turn of events in late December saw
the Euroghter Typhoon totally rejected by the United Arab
Emirates, for unstated reasons. Frances defense minister,
Jean-Yves Le Drian, was quoted as saying on Dec. 18be-
fore the BAE announcement was publicthat there would be
results soon concerning both a contract for Rafale in India
and sales in the Gulf. However, there were no more concrete
indications of a Rafale sale to the UAE.
Euroghter can still hold out some hope in nearby Qatar,
where the government raised the stakes and increased the
planned size of its future ghter buy to as many as 72 aircraft,
compared with its current eet of 12 Mirage 2000s.
Qatari evaluation teams are understood to have own the
Typhoon, Rafale and Super Hornet along with other com-
petitors, but few details of the program have been released.
It could have a major impact on the ghter scene because a
Boeing deal would rescue the F/A-18E/F lineabsent further
orders, the line will start to shut down in March. Kuwait
also has a requirement for new ghters to replace its legacy
F/A-18C/D Hornets, but a decision may not come before 2015.
Qatar is due to decide the outcome of a large helicopter
order, either from the U.S., for both the AH-64E Apaches and
UH-60 Black Hawks, or from Europe with the Eurocopter
EC665 Tiger and the NH Industries NH90.
With the planned closure of the Boeing C-17 Globemaster
line in Long Beach, Calif., it is expected that some Middle East
nations who have not yet ofcially ordered the type may well
jump in. Kuwait has ordered two aircraft, the rst of which
is expected of the line shortly. Saudi Arabia is said to be in-
terested in the C-17, particularly as it is now in the process of
ordering its rst Lockheed C-130Js; the gas-rich North Afri-
can state of Algeria is known to have evaluated the aircraft
DEFENSE PROFILES
Tony Osborne London
and Bill Sweetman Washington
Not Just Fighters
Missile defense and ISR
preoccupy Middle East forces
Middle East defense needs are diver-
sifying. Nations are going beyond new
combat aircraft and weapons, seeking
intelligence, surveillance and reconnais-
sance (ISR) and other assets, as well
as increased participation in industrial
and technical matters.
With a generous $3.1 billion
in U.S. military assistance, of
which more than $800 million
is available for domestic pro-
curement in Israel, the Jewish
state is obliged to buy much
of its military hardware in the
U.S., leaving only a small por-
tion of its defense spending
for domestic military procure-
ment. That fraction is focused
on various strategic systems, as well as programs that have
the highest priority for national defense.
The two largest portions of the defense budget are not
related to military modernization. About $5.3 billion goes
to salaries, pensions, rehabilitation and compensation for
families of fallen service members. Spending on operations
primarily border protection and operations of the regular
forcesconsumes most of the remaining assets. This leaves
only a fraction of the total for modernization based on in-
novations evolved from Israels investments in indigenous
research and development, amounting to well over $1 billion.
Nevertheless, Israel still maintains one of the strongest,
most efective military forces in the region. Reshaping this
military power to respond to evolving challenges, from asym-
metric warfare to long-range threats, the country has under-
gone a major reform of its airpower by establishing a multi-
David Eshel Tel Aviv
Long Arms
Deterrence and defense
crimp ground forces
Israels defense budget of approxi-
mately $15 billion puts the nation at
16th place in defense expenditure, after
South Korea, Australia, Canada and
Turkey, but ahead of the United Arab
Emirates, Colombia, Spain and Paki-
stan. In terms of its estimated share of
GDP, Israels defense budget dropped
from a double-digit level in the 1990s
down to about 6% since 2010. Yet these
statistics do not tell the full story.
Israel
Estimated Budget
$15 billion (based on ofcial gures)
6.9
176,500 active, 445,000 reserve
Percent of GDP
Boeings Maritime Surveillance
Aircraft has Middle Eastern customers
among its prime targets.

layered air and missile defense system and modernizing its
manned and unmanned air assets. The goal is to provide
fast response to asymmetric challenges and threats that may
emerge thousands of kilometers from Israels borders.
The air and missile defense command and its active de-
fense wing continues to be upgraded since it received the
rst Iron Dome batteries in 2011, together with continuous
improvement of the Arrow II Block 4 ballistic missile de-
fense system. More Iron Dome batteries are being delivered
through 2014 and will continue in 2015. Two new systems
are on the way: the Davids Sling intermediate-level air and
missile defense system, and Arrow 3, an exo-atmospheric up-
per tier above Arrow 2. Both are in advanced testing, funded
jointly by Israel and the U.S., with initial operational capabil-
ity expected in 2015 for Davids Sling and 2016 for Arrow 3.
Israels rst stealth ghter-strike aircraft, the Lockheed
Martin F-35A, is expected to enter service in 2017. The Is-
raeli Air Force is expected to eld another revolutionary plat-
formthe Bell-Boeing V-22 Osprey tilt-rotor aircraftsix are
slated to arrive in 2015.
The navy is also undergoing an expensive evolution focused
on sub-surface operations, with the elding of three Advanced
Dolphin submarines through the rest of the decade. These
submarines are equipped with air independent propulsion sys-
earlier in 2013, and is said to be looking for up to four aircraft
to replace aging and difcult-to-maintain Russian transports.
The country is heavily investing in Western aircraft, and is
replacing many Russian- and French-built helicopters through
a wide-ranging contract with AgustaWestland for the AW139
utility helicopter, the AW101 three-engine heavy rotorcraft,
now in use for long-range search-and-rescue (SAR) missions,
and the Super Lynx 300 for shorter-range SAR operations.
A follow-on order for six Super Lynx will be used to support
Algerias new Meko A200-class frigates ordered in 2012. Two
of four ships will be built in Germany, while Thyssen-Krupp
Marine Systems will build a dockyard in Algeria where the
remaining two will be constructed. Armament will include
Saab RBS-15 Mk.3 antiship missiles, vertically launched
Denel Umkhonto missiles and an Oto Melara 76-mm. Super
Rapid gun. Also modernizing its Navy is Oman, which is now
taking delivery of BAE Systems Al Khareef corvettes armed
with MBDA Exocet Block III and Mica VL missiles.
Missile defense is increasing in importance in the region
as the threat from ballistic missilesboth nuclear-tipped and
conventional precision-guided versionscontinues to loom.
The UAE placed a long-expected order for Lockheed Martins
Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (Thaad) launchers and
missiles in September. Oman is also negotiating for a defense
system that is likely to include Raytheons TPY-2 radar, Thaad
and Lockheed Martins Patriot Advanced Capability-3 missile.
Saudi Arabia and Qatar are also looking at BMD systems.
Intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance continue to
be a big focusin large measure because those capabilities
have been neglected until now. The UAE is acquiring the
General Atomics Predator XP unmanned air system, and
Abu Dhabi Autonomous System Investments, a subsidiary
of the royal-family-owned Tawazun engineering and defense
group, is the program manager for the Piaggio Aero Multirole
Patrol Aircraft (MPA), due to y this year.
The Piaggio MPAs cabin size, range and endurance approx-
imate the capability of Boeings Maritime Surveillance Air-
craft (MSA), which the U.S. company launched at the Dubai
air show in recognition of its regional signicance. Based on
the Bombardier 605 airframe, the MSA uses the workstations,
avionics backbone and software from the U.S. Navys P-8A
Poseidon, mated to less costly sensorsincluding a Selex-ES
Seaspray 7000E radarand lacking any antisubmarine war-
fare capability. Boeings MSA demonstrator, being modied
by Canadas Field Aviation, is also due to y this year.
So far, few Gulf States operate xed-wing maritime patrol
aircraft, mainly relying on helicopters for anti-shipping and
submarine warfare. The UAE has invested in a pair of modi-
ed Bombardier Dash 8-Q300s, while Oman awaits delivery of
its rst maritime patrol Airbus Military C295. Airborne early
warning remains an open requirement for some regional air
forces, too, and a likely target for Saab and Embraer, who are
considering a combination of an improved EriEye radar with
Embraers E-175 as a follow-on to the EMB-145-based R-99. c
tems, extending their submerged range and speed. They are
believed to be part of the nations second-strike strategic force,
armed with Israeli-developed nuclear-tipped cruise missiles.
While the submarine force is being strengthened and
expanded, the surface eet is rapidly aging, and new mis-
sionssuch as securing the new ofshore energy platforms
established throughout the countrys Economic Exclusion
Zoneare increasing operational demands on the navy.
Israels ground forces are larger and more costly to operate
and maintain than the other services and they have lagged in
modernization. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has yet to nd
a way to adapt its force structure to meet threats expected in
the region, within the political and economic realities it faces.
New equipment is often deferred because of budget cuts,
and even where new equipment is being procured it rarely
reaches the reserve units. However, the army is making some
progress toward a transformation based on detailed situ-
ational awarenessusing sensors and broadband terrestrial
and beyond line-of-sight satellite communicationsand pre-
cision res, including guided artillery. c
The submarine Rahav is the second of the improved
Dolphin class, with an air-independent propulsion system
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Richard Fisher, Jr. Washington
Pursuit of Power
Defense spending bolsters Chinas inuence
Chinas confidence arises from its
growing power. Despite fears of a
slowdown, the Chinese government
has been projecting a 7.6% economic
growth rate for 2013, slightly above the
ofcial goal of 7.5%. This should allow
for another year of military spending
growth in the 10% range, resulting in
a 2014 estimated budget of about $126
billion. But according to U.S.
Department of Defense adjust-
ed estimates, Chinas military
spending for 2014 could rise to
$174-$259 billion.
China claims the spending
increases are driven by the ris-
ing costs of personnel, logistics
improvements and training.
But larger budgets are also funding an
aggressive modernization program,
enabling Chinas Peoples Liberation
Army (PLA) to exercise greater power
regionally, building toward global mili-
tary power status by the 2020s.
New PLA commander and Chinese
Communist Party (CCP) Secretary
General Xi Jinping has beneted from
a career-long association with the
PLA. He made numerous high-prole
unit visits in 2013, helping both to build
his support for the PLA and assert his
authority over it. Xi is likely to spend
much of 2014 doing the same, as con-
trol of the PLA remains central to the
continuation of CCP rule.
China is now making more use of
the PLA to enforce maritime terri-
torial claims in the East China Sea,
rst around the Senkaku/Diayoutai
Islands and then in the Spratly Island
group in the South China Sea. In 2014,
China is likely to increase its aggres-
sive use of its newly consolidated coast
guard to challenge Japanese coast
guard ships around the Senkakus.
Despite Chinas improving economic
relations with Taiwan, Beijing has made
clear in words, and by the continued
buildup of PLA forces in the Taiwan
theater, that Taiwans political status
will not remain unresolved, as Wash-
ington describes it. For several years,
Taiwanese military sources have told
Aviation Week that the main threat
has evolved from blockade to invasion.
A September 2013 report from the Tai-
wan defense ministry asserted that by
2020, the PLA may be able to defeat
external forces attempting to intervene
against a PLA attack on Taiwan.
In 2014, the PLA will continue to
fund many known programs intended
to build regional power, and will likely
reveal lesser-known programs. New
missiles being procured will include a
4,000-km (2,500-mi.)-range interme-
diate-range ballistic missile (IRBM),
the medium-range DF-16 and the new
short-range DF-12. The new 1,700-km-
range DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile
(ASBM) could be joined by an ASBM
version of the new IRBM.
Alongside the stealthy Chengdu
J-20 and Shenyang J-31 ghters, China
is also developing upgraded versions
of existing designs: the Shenyang J-16
strike ghter, derived from the Sukhoi
Su-27 via the bootleg J-11, and the
single-engine Chengdu J-10B multi-
role fighter. New medium-altitude,
long-endurance unmanned air systems
are entering air force and navy units,
while longer-range, high-altitude long-
endurance UAS are in testing.
In 2014 China may also start build-
ing an improved version of the Type
071 Landing Platform Dock
(LPD) amphibious assault ship.
Naval combatant production
will include the new Type 052D
air-defense escort destroyer
and the Type 056 corvette, a
class expected to number 30-40
ships. The Pentagon estimates
that China will build up to 20
of the Yuan-class conventional subma-
rine, with a new Type 093B version to
include an air independent propulsion
system based on a Stirling-cycle engine.
A high-prole Chinese navy squad-
ron visit to Chile, Argentina and Brazil
in October-November 2013 underscores
the fact that China is pursuing several
power-projection programs that will be
funded in 2014. Shipyards in Dalian and
Shanghai could start construction of dif-
ferent aircraft carrier designs in 2014.
In January 2013 Xian Aircraft started
testing its new Y-20 short-takeof-and-
landing heavy transport, expected to
eventually be capable of carrying 65
tons of cargo when modied with new
Chinese high-bypass turbofans.
Chinas nuclear investments may in-
clude the large, road-mobile and multi-
ple-warhead-capable DF-41 ICBM. New
images of this missile suggest it may be
transitioning from testing to produc-
tion. Chinese sources also suggest that
a longer 10,000-km range version of the
JL-2 SLBM may be in development. c
DEFENSE PROFILES
Chinas imposition of an Air Defense Identication
Zone (Adiz) over the East China Sea sparked pro-
tests across the region. The Adizdened by a set of
rules that require any air trafc in the area to identify
itself and comply with Chinese instructionsis not a
hostile act in itself, but raises tensions between China
and Japan, and consequently with the United States.
China
Estimated Budget
1.41
2.28 million
United Nations peacekeeping operations,
Somalia anti-piracy patrols
Percent of GDP
Deployments
So far unidentied, this UAS is
smaller than the previously re-
vealed Soar Dragon, which has a
similar joined-wing conguration.
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Recently, Boeing and the U.S. Army successfully completed
a series of tests using the High Energy Laser Mobile
Demonstrator (HEL MD). Directed energy systems will
provide cost-effective capabilities to counter rocket,
artillery and mortar (C-RAM), and threats from unmanned
aerial vehicles. The HEL MD is harnessing the power of
directed energy to strengthen and protect the warghter.

Rising Power
Forging the Chain
New government reverses spending cuts
New weapons aim at North Korean nuclear threat
The focus areas remain the same:
defense of the remote southwestern is-
lands facing China, ballistic missile de-
fense against North Korea, and defense
against guerrilla/commando raids. The
latter is seen as a doubtful way to justify
some questionable army programs, no-
tably a newly unveiled 8 X 8 maneuver
combat vehicle carrying a 105-mm. gun.
A dedicated amphibious unit will be
created to defend islands in the China
Sea, and two U.S. AAV7s are to be ac-
quired as test vehicles. A small sum is
budgeted to look at introducing Bell
Boeing V-22 Osprey tiltrotors and new
airborne early warning aircraft to even-
tually replace Grumman E-2Cs based
in Okinawa. Kawasaki is launching a
sales campaign for an AEW version of
its four-jet P-1 maritime patrol aircraft.
If approved, big-ticket items in
the 2014 budget include four Lock-
heed Martin
F-35A fight-
ers, four Ka-
wasaki P-1s,
the second
5 , 0 0 0 - t o n
25DD gener-
al - purpose
des t r oyer
and the tenth
improved Soryu-class submarine.
Major research and development
programs in the 2014 budget request
include a new ground-based re-con-
trol radar to counter stealthy targets
such as the Chinese J-20, and key tech-
nologies for a future indigenous stealth
ghtersuch as one-piece fastener-free
airframe structures and small-diame-
ter, high-thrust slim engines. The
defense ministrys Technical Research
and Development Institute displayed a
ghter concept24DMU (2012 digital
mock-up)at a publicity event in Tokyo
in late October; it looks like a mixture of
Sukhoi T-50 and Northrop YF-23. The
concept was used in air combat simula-
tions to set requirements for a future
ghter to replace the Mitsubishi F-2. c
DEFENSE PROFILES
Japans 2014 defense budget request asks for a 3%
increase over the 2013 budget, continuing the sudden
upward trend set in motion by the right-wing Prime
Minister Shinzo Abe upon his December 2012 return to
power. The previous center-left government planned a
1.3% decrease in defense spending, which had already
seen 10 consecutive contractions since 2003.
South Koreas 2014 defense budget, if approved as
is, will see a 3.8% increasegood news by global stan-
dards, but well below the countrys 10-year average
growth rate of 7%. The governments campaign pledge
to boost social welfare programs is squeezing defense
spending, pushing its share of the budget below 15%.
About 30% of the defense budget is
investment in new equipment, the rest
covering operations and support. Two
major new items are aimed directly at
a potential nuclear missile threat from
North Korea. One is a system-of-sys-
tems approach known as Kill Chain, to
nd and destroy North Korean nuclear
weapons before they could be used
($940 million), and the other is the Ko-
rea Air and Missile Defense (KAMD,
$113 million) system to shoot down
missiles that evade the Kill Chain.
As the eyes of the Kill Chain, South
Korea is expected to buy four Northrop
Grumman RQ-4 Block 30 Global Hawk
unmanned surveillance aircraft in 2017-
19. The 1,500-km-range (940-mi.) Hyun-
moo 3 cruise missile and the 300-km-
range Hyunmoo 2 tactical ballistic
missile, both displayed for the rst time
on armed forces day on Oct. 1, 2013, form
the strike element of the Kill Chain.
The Global Hawk could be the weak-
est link of the Kill Chain. North Koreas
300-km-range S-200 surface-to-air
missiles could shoot down the Global
Hawk or force it away far enough to
deny timely intelligence. The KAMD is
not yet clearly dened and may well be
merged into
a wider U.S.-
l ed ef f or t ,
depending on
the govern-
ments politi-
cal will.
The 2014
budget re-
quest al l o-
cat es $689
million for the
F-X Phase 3
proj ect for
60 new ghters. The Boeing F-15 Si-
lent Eagle, the only contender within
budget, was rejected by an all-govern-
ment committee last September. The
defense ministry announced Nov. 22
that it would buy 40 Lockheed Martin
F-35As within the F-X Phase 3, after
revising its operational requirements
such that only the F-35A could meet
them; 20 more F-35s may follow after
2023. On the same day the ministry
fixed operational requirements for
the KF-X, a project to develop a new
fighter positioned between the F-35
and F-16. However, only $9.4 million
is requested for the KF-X in 2014, just
enough to keep it on life support. c
Japan
Estimated Budget
4.8 trillion ($49.1 billion)
1.0
247,362
Djibouti (ships & aircraft) &
South Sudan (peacekeepers)
Percent of GDP
Deployments
South Korea
Estimated Budget
35.8 trillion won ($33.7 billion)
2.5
631,894
Gulf of Aden (1 destroyer),
Lebanon & South Sudan
(peacekeepers), South Korea,
UAE (advisers)
Percent of GDP
Deployments

The air forces Long-Term Integrated Perspective Plan
2002-17 moves it toward its government-approved target of
42 squadrons by 2022, up from the current 34, while replacing
much obsolete equipment. The plan covers phased acquisition
of ghters, transport aircraft, helicopters, radars and missile
systems. By 2022, spending on new air force equipment is ex-
pected to reach $37 billion.
The biggest deal of all is the $20 billion Medium Multirole
Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) projectwhich is still not under
contract, despite selection of the Dassault Rafale in early 2012.
The complex program includes extensive industrial participa-
tion and technology transfer. India is also preparing a follow-
on programthe Fifth-Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA),
based on the Sukhoi T-50. Plans call for 214 aircraft to be built,
incorporating more indigenous
technology than the Rafale.
The air force also plans to buy
around 220 Tejas Light Combat
Aircraft (LCA). Orders for the ini-
tial 20 have been placed with an In-
dian consortium led by Hindustan
Aeronautics Ltd., while the service
introduces 123 BAE Systems Hawk
trainers, and 75 Pilatus PC-7 Mk 2s.
The military also is under orders
to promote growth of the domes-
tic defense industry, unveiling new
rules in 2013 making procurement
from foreign vendors a last resort.
The first option is to buy from
India, followed by buy and make India, in which private and
public sector companies can team with foreign vendors to
produce foreign-developed military equipment in India. Other
less-desirable options include buy and make with transfer of
technology, and buy global.
However, urgent operational requirements and small-
batch orders of high-tech equipment continue to drive for-
eign purchases, such as Lockheed Martin C-130s and Boeing
AH-64 Apache helicopters.
The inherent tension between imported and indigenous
equipment is also apparent in navy procurements. The ex-
Soviet aircraft carrier Vikramaditya, after extensive and
much-delayed modications, was formally commissioned in
Russia in November and in early December was en route to
India, expected to patrol the Indian Ocean with an air wing of
new MiG-29K ghters.
The rst indigenous carrierthe gas-turbine-powered Vi-
krantwas launched in August, but completion was delayed by
technical difculties and the Vikramadityas cost overruns. c
Overload
Advance in all directions
Indias defense budget for 2013-14
was a more modest expansion than
the double-digit increases of previ-
ous years, reecting slower economic
growth. However, the budget is none-
theless heading toward the $50 billion
mark, including an estimated $15 billion
on new air platforms (for the air force
and navy) in the next two years.
India
Estimated Budget
2.5
1.3 million active, 2.1 million reserve
U.N. peacekeeping and other
operations including Congo, Cote
dIvoire, Cyprus, Haiti, Lebanon,
Liberia, South Sudan, plus naval
counter-piracy operations.
Percent of GDP
Deployments
All At Sea
Maritime threats dominate Asia plans
Asia-Pacific nations are expected to
spend about $1.4 trillion on military pro-
grams in 2013-18, an estimated 55% in-
crease over the $919.5 billion the coun-
tries spent during 2008-12, according to
an AW&ST analysis of data provided by
Avascent Analytics.
An important development for some regional nations, in-
cluding Taiwan and Singapore, will be progress with upgrades
for the Lockheed Martin F-16. Although Singapore was tilting
toward the F-35B in 2013, the countrys defense minister, Ng
Eng Hen, said in late December that the country was in no
hurry to commit to a buy and would look at F-16 upgrades rst.
South Korea has already launched its own upgrade pro-
gram with BAE Systems as prime contractor; the U.S. Air
Force wants allies to join its own program, headed by Lock-
heed Martin, but its start may be delayed by budget cuts.
That could make the Korean program look more attractive.
Another major regional aircraft program nearing a decision
point is Australias Air 7000 maritime patrol project. Austra-
lia has been closely involved with the U.S. Navy/Boeing P-8A
Poseidon project, and has been planning to acquire aircraft
with the Increment 2 equipment standard that includes the
new multistatic, active, coherent acoustic technology. Boeing
has been predicting a production contract this year. Unknown
is whether Australia will stick to its plans for a mixed force
of P-8As and Northrop Grumman MQ-4C Triton unmanned
surveillance aircraftBoeing has been promoting more Posei-
dons, and General Atomics has been proposing the less-costly
Predator B.
A major defense procurement decision at the end of 2013
could be a trendsetter for the region: Singapores choice of
Thyssen Krupp Marine Systems HDW unit to build its next
two submarines under a contract in the 1 billion ($1.36 bil-
lion) range. The designation, Type 218SG, is new, and while
the boats are certain to be diesel-electric types with an
air-independent propulsion, and Atlas Elektronic and Sin-
gapores ST Electronics are known to be collaborating on the
combat system, little else has been released. c

Amy Butler Washington
Fight
and
Train
Having overcome some
technical challenges,
the F-35 remains
the worlds leading
combat aircraft
However, its competitorsthe Boe-
ing F/A-18E/F, Dassault Rafale, Euro-
ghter Typhoon and Saab Gripenare
all continuing with upgrade plans for
a diverse set of customers, some of
whom will eventually buy the F-35 and
others who cannot aford it.
The F-35s edge was afrmed in No-
vember when Seoul bypassed its own
procurement agencys recommenda-
tion to purchase 60 semi-stealthy
Boeing F-15 Silent Eagles in order to
buy fewer F-35s within a set budget
of 8.3 trillion won ($7.7 billion). South
Koreas decision follows Japans choice
in late 2011 of the F-35, which both
countries have been willing to buy at
a premium, sacricing tail numbers in
their force structures for stealth and
integrated avionics.
Seouls decision likely buries Boe-
ings ambitions to sell the Silent Eagle
variant of its venerable F-15; both the
Strike Eagle and the F/A-18E/F Super
Hornet and EA-18G Growler are built
at the companys facility in St. Louis.
The Silent Eagle was to include con-
formal weapons bays and employ y-
by-wire controls. It is unclear whether
the company will snag more F-15 sales
beyond those to Saudi Arabia; Riyadhs
last aircraft is scheduled to roll of the
line in 2018.
Boeing ofcials say the Silent Eagle
optionsincluding the stealthy weap-
ons bay, the y-by-wire controls and
digital electronic warfare systemwill
remain as options for legacy F-15 cus-
tomers choosing to retrot their eets.
For the twin-engine Super Hornet/
Growler line, Boeing ofcials are up-
beat about further buys from the U.S.
Navy, which has always been the last of
the three Pentagon services to buy the
F-35 in volume. Ship trials slated for
2014 could jolt it out of its lukewarm
stance, however. The company must
decide by March whether to use its
own funding to keep long-lead Super
Hornet and Growler production activi-
ties in play. Boeing ofcials are antici-
pating another Navy order in the scal
2015 budget, which is expected to go
to Congress in February; that would
likely trigger Boeing funding for the
line until the contract is solid, says
Mike Gibbons, Boeings Super Hornet
vice president.
Boeing financially has the ability
to keep this line going, Gibbons notes.
The company has cash on hand largely
because of its balanced defense and
space portfolio and hearty commercial
aircraft backlog.
Boeing received another blow in
December when Brazil selected Saabs
JAS39E/F Gripen over the Super Hor-
net (and Dassault Rafale) for a 36-air-
craft order. The F/-18E/F had been lead-
ing the long-running FX-2 competition
until revelations of U.S. spying on Bra-
zilian ofcials, and the Rafale was re-
jected as too costly. Gibbons says there
is still interest in the Super Hornet in
Canada, Denmark, Kuwait, Malaysia
and unnamed Middle Eastern coun-
tries. But decisions that could provide
condence in future orders are not ex-
pected in the near term.
New and potential orders notwith-
standing, the heyday of Super Hornet/
Growler production is likely in the past.
Gibbons says the current annual pro-
With the first F-35 customerthe U.S. Marine
Corpsset to declare operational capability with the
single-engine, stealthy ghter in as little as 18 months,
the Lockheed Martin jet continues to dominate the
global ghter market.
Tap the icon in the digital edition of
AW&ST to see a video review
of combat aircraft developments
in 2013, or go to
AviationWeek.com/aerospace2014
Defense
The U.S. Navy may buy con-
formal fuel tanks for its Super
Hornets and Growlers but has
committed to no date.
B
O
E
I
N
G

duction rate of 48 aircraft is likely
to be cut by 25% next year and
eventually lowered again, to 24 an-
nually. Company ofcials are look-
ing for lessons from a similar rate
reduction in the C-17 transport,
aiming to keep the per-unit Super
Hornet price at $37 million (not
including engines and electronic-
warfare systems) while reducing
the production rate. Including all
government-furnished equipment,
Gibbons says the Navy pays a $50
million yaway price for the Super
Hornet. A Growler is expected to
cost about $9 million more.
The Euroghter consortium is
expected to face a similar decision
for its Typhoon production infra-
structure, with the last fighter
scheduled to come of of the line in
2017. The Tranche 3 Typhoon had
its rst ight in early December, incor-
porating improved avionics comput-
ing power; fuel-dump and provisions
for an active, electronically scanned
array (AESA) radar; high-speed data
network; fiber-optic weapons bus,
and conformal fuel tanks. A Typhoon
package with an improved radar is ex-
pected for delivery at the end of 2015.
Meanwhile, Saab is under contract
to develop the JAS 39E production
version of the Gripen NG demonstra-
tor, rst own in 2008, and to modify 60
Swedish Gripen Cs to Gripen Es. Swit-
zerland is expected to buy 22 Gripen Es
in 2014. The upgraded ghter features
an AESA radar, General Electric
F414 engine and increased fuel and
weapon loads.
Although losing in Brazil, the
Rafale was selected as Indias Me-
dium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft
(MMRCA) and Frances modern-
ization program. The contract for
Indias largest single defense buy to
date, for 126 ghters, is not likely to
be issued until April. At the same
time, France has begun to take de-
livery of its latest, fourth-tranche,
two-seat Rafales. They include the
RBE2 AESA radar and upgraded
missile-warning capability. An ear-
lier version of the Rafale was instru-
mental in French operations in Mali,
where the aircraft conducted aerial
surveillance and ground-attack mis-
sions. The Rafale and Typhoon were
also being eyed by the United Arab
Emirates, but the UAE put Euroghter
negotiations on ice in December, and
the status of Rafale talks was not clear.
Despite this activity, Paris has pro-
posed slowing Rafale production to 26
aircraft over six years, from the current
11-aircraft annual rate.
Not unlike the Rafale, Lockheed
DEFENSE SYSTEMS
Combat Aircraft To Watch

MODEL/DESIGNATION
WING
SPAN
(FT.)
MAX.
LENGTH
(FT.)
MAX.
HEIGHT
(FT.)
WING
AREA
(SQ. FT.)
EMPTY
WEIGHT
(LB.)
GROSS
WEIGHT
(LB.)

ENGINES (NO./TYPE)
THRUST
(AFTER-
BURNING)

PERFORMANCE

LOADING
80|h6 0FhS, SPA0 & S008|TY
F-15E Strike Eagle 42.8 63.8 18.7 609.4 37,000 81,000 2 X P&W F100-229
or GE F110-129
29,000 lb.
each
M 2.5-class 24,500 lb.
external
F/A-18E/F Super Hornet 44.9 60.2 16 500 32,080/
32,795
66,000 2 X GE F414-400 22,000 lb.
each
M 1.8+ 11 weapons
stations
0ASSA0LT AV|AT|0h
Rafale C/B/M 36 50 17.5 492 22,000 54,000 2 X Snecma M88-2 17,000 lb. each M 1.8 21,000 lb. external
080F|6hT8 JA60FL06I06 6N8h
Euroghter 35.11 52.4 17.4 538 24,250 51,809 2 X Eurojet EJ200 20,000 lb.
each
M 2 16,535 lb. external
L00kh0 NA8T|h A80hA0T|0S 00.
F-35A Lightning II 35 51.5 14.1 460 29,300 68,000 1 X P&W F135-100 43,000 lb. M 1.6 Internal: 2 X AIM-
120, 2 X GBU-2
SAA8 A8
JAS 39E/F Gripen NG 28.2 46.3 14.8 15,700 36,400 1 X GE F414G 22,000 lb. M 2 15,870 lb. external
S0kh0| 0S|6h 808A0 JS0
Su-35 50.2 71.9 19.4 667 76,059 2 X NPO Saturn 117S
31,970 lb.
each
M 2.25 17,640 lb. external
Expanded Tables Online Download expanded specications on in-production and under-development combat aircraft
and search more than 3,100 other systems at AviationWeek.com/specs
Fighter/Attack/Trainer Aircraft
Unit Production,
Percentage of Market Share 2014-18
Lockheed
Martin
31%
467
Eurofghter
13.5%
204
Pilatus
11.1%
167
Korean
Aerospace
9.6%
144
All Others
23.7%
358
Boeing
11.1%
168
Total Five-Year Production: 1,508
Source: Aviation Week Intelligence Network
Aircraft manufactured in China, India and Russia not forecast
All percentages rounded.

Martins F-16 is being modernized by
several customers as well. Singapore
will upgrade at least some of its F-16s
while it considers purchasing the F-35.
Singapore is expected to follow Taiwan
and the U.S. in pursuing an AESA ra-
dar for the F-16. Northrop Grummans
Scaled Agile Beam Radar (SABR),
based on the radars employed by the
F-22 and F-35, has been selected by
prime contractor Lockheed Martin
for the F-16. The U.S. Air Force is also
considering structural upgrades to get
more ying hours out of its F-16s.
As these programs are relying large-
ly on upgrades, the F-35 footprint con-
tinues to grow. In 2013, Italy of cially
started work at its nal assembly and
checkout (FACO) facility at Cameri Air
Base in the countrys northern indus-
trial sector. The Italian government
invested roughly $1 billion to
construct the state-of-the-art
FACO there, which is being op-
erated under the leadership of
Alenia Aermacchi.
Defense of cials hope to es-
tablish a regional maintenance,
repair and overhaul facility for
European and Middle Eastern
F-35s with some of the facilitys
excess capacity. The rst F-35
from the FACO is expected to
be delivered to Amendola Air
Base in Italy in 2016.
Another FACO facility will be built
by Japans Mitsubishi Heavy Indus-
tries, according to an agreement
signed last summer.
The F-35 took a major step in
overcoming a thorny technical
shortfall in October when the
U.S. Joint Program Of ce ended
its contract with BAE Systems
to provide an alternative to the
primary helmet-mounted display
being built by Vision Systems
International (VSI) (a joint ven-
ture between Elbit Systems and
Rockwell Collins). The Pentagon
started the alternative design,
which would have employed
a less sophisticated helmet-
mounted display, in 2011 due to
persistent problems with jitter
and the night-vision capability
in high-stress conditions.
The fixes to VSIs original
helmet will be incorporated into
the so-called Gen-3 helmet and
tested in the coming months.
The Gen-3 helmet will be incor-
porated into the production sys-
tem with low-rate, initial-production
Lot 7 aircraft being delivered in 2016.
F-35 weapons testing is also moving
forward: The three weapons required
for the U.S. Marine Corps initial op-
erational capabil-
ity (IOC) decision
have been dropped.
They are the 500-
l b. l aser- gui ded
bomb, 1 ,000- l b.
Joint Direct At-
tack Munition and
the AIM-120. F-35
program officials
wi l l conti nue to
expand weapons
testing, including
guided test flights
and more stressing conditions. They
are hoping to wrap up testing for this
trio of weapons in March 2015, to meet
a possible IOC declaration in the sum-
mer of 2015.
For the most part, looking ahead
to 2014, the fast-jet trainer market re-
mains in largely the same shape as in
recent years. This is primarily due to
the U.S. Air Forces decision to delay
buys of a T-38 replacement until 2015 or
beyond; the slip was prompted by fund-
ing cuts imposed on the Pentagon. The
service says it will buy 350 or more of
the aircraft, and it hopes to keep costs
down, possibly by purchasing an off-
the-shelf option. As the lead-in trainer
for the F-22 and F-35, the Air Force is
looking for an integrated training sys-
tem incorporating the cutting edge in
ground-based simulation as well as
airborne elements. Budget pressure
in Washington is forcing the service to
look for a low-cost option.
This could come from Boeing
and Saab, which announced in
late 2013 that they are teaming
to design and build a brand-new
aircraft for the forthcoming re-
quirement. Though the design
will not be a Gripen, team of -
cials say it will draw on lessons
from that aircraft in addition to
Boeings extensive ghter work.
The pair will take on a well-
established eld of competitors
for the T-X program, including
Northrop Grumman/BAE, ofer-
ing the Hawk; General Dynam-
ics/Alenia Aermacchi, ofering
the M-346 and Korea Aerospace
Industries/Lockheed Martin,
proposing the T-50.
Iraq announced in Decem-
ber that it will buy 24 F-50s,
fighter versions of the T-50,
in a deal valued at $1.1 billion.
The Philippines is expected to
order the type as well. c
Fighter/Attack/Trainer Aircraft
Value of Production
Billions of U.S. Fiscal 2014 Dollars
Lockheed
Martin
52.1%
$84.7
Eurofghter
25.1%
$40.8
Dassault
3.7% $5.9
Korean
Aerospace
2.1% $3.5
All Others
6.5% $10.5
Boeing
10.5%
$17.1
Total Five-Year Value of Production: $162.6 billion
Aircraft manufactured in China, India and Russia not forecast
All numbers and percentages rounded.
Weapons testing
for the Amraam,
1,000-lb. Joint
Direct Attack Muni-
tion and 500-lb.
laser-guided bomb
should wrap up on
the F-35 in March
2015 in prepara-
tion for the U.S.
Marine Corps IOC
declaration later
that year.
L
O
C
K
H
E
E
D

M
A
R
T
I
N

Cargo Shift
Special missions an increasingly important role
for armed forces transport aircraft
Lockheed Martin continues to build
the C-130J tactical airlifter and Boeing
is developing the KC-46A tanker/trans-
port for the U.S. Air Force, but aircraft
available from foreign suppliers now
range from light tactical transports to
strategic airlifters and tankers. China,
India and Russia also are developing
aircraft that could enter the interna-
tional marketplace later this decade.
It will not be the rst time the U.S.
has ceded a market to foreign manu-
facturers, but a dearth of smaller
platforms from domestic sources
could become an issue as the global
market grows for missions ranging
from intelligence, surveillance and re-
connaissance (ISR) to maritime patrol
aircraft (MPA). North of the border,
Bombardier is marketing its Chal-
lenger and Global business jets and Q
Series regional turboprops for special
missions. In Europe, Airbus is nding
new roles for its CN235 and C295 light
transports, while Alenia Aermacchi is
expanding the capabilities of its C-27J.
When it comes to special-mission
aircraft, the U.S. ofers sparse choice:
Boeings P-8A Poseidon for high-end
maritime patrol and 737 airborne ear-
ly warning & control (AEW&C); Gulf-
streams G550 (and perhaps G650) for
AEW&C, ISR and MPA; Beechcrafts
workhorse C-12 King Air turboprop for
low-end ISR; and single-turboprops
such as the ATK/Cessna Combat Cara-
van and Northrop Grumman/Kodiak
Air Claw. In Europe, ATR offers a
maritime-patrol ATR 42 and antisub-
marine-warfare (ASW) ATR 72, the
latter jointly with Turkish Aerospace
Industries. Dassault sells maritime-
patrol Falcon 900s and 2000s.
Embraer is delivering EMB-145
AEW&C platforms to India and has
produced ISR and MPA variants of the
regional jet. Pilatus has found an ISR
niche for its single-turboprop PC-12,
and Piaggo is developing a maritime-
patrol variant of the twin-turboprop
P180 Avanti, with a prototype set to
fly in 2014. Even out-of-production
regional aircraft are being ofered up
for modification, with BAE Systems
proposing a low-cost tanker version
of the BAE 146/Avro 146 and Saab of-
fering Swordsh MPA and Airtracer
Elint/Comint versions of the Saab
2000, already in service as the Erieye
for AEW&C.
Tactical transports make good plat-
forms for special missions, as Lock-
heed Martin has demonstrated with
the Harvest Hawk armed
recce kit for U.S. Marine
Corps KC-130Js and the
Shadow Harvest roll-on/
roll-of ISR system. Lock-
heed is continuing to seek
launch customers for the
SC-130J Sea Herc ASW/
MPA variant. Airbus,
meanwhile has delivered
ASW vari ants of the
C295, is ofering an AEW&C variant
with Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI)
active-array radar and is testing a roll-
on/roll-of reghting kit. The smaller
CN235 is available as an MPA, and
ATK is converting one to a gunship
for Jordan.
Alenia Aermacchi, with partners
With Airbus beginning deliveries of Europes
A400M in 2013, Brazils Embraer scheduled to y the
KC-390 in 2014 and Boeing ending C-17 production in
2015, the center of gravity of the military
airlifter market has begun to move away from the U.S.
DEFENSE SYSTEMS
A dearth of smaller platforms
from domestic U.S. sources
could become an issue as the
global market grows.
The Airbus A400M entered service
in 2013, but customers are adjust-
ing delivery plans.
AIRBUS

ATK and Selex ES, has a launch order
from the Italian air force to convert six
of its 12 C-27J airlifters into MC-27J
Praetorian ISR gunships with a pallet-
ized 30-mm gun, electro-optical (EO)
sensor and mission system. Seven of
the U.S. Air Forces unwanted C-27Js
are being transferred to Special Oper-
ations Command, but no details of the
planned modications have been re-
leased. Romania is testing an air-drop
reghting capacity for its C-27Js.
Seeing the move to smaller plat-
forms for special missions, Boeing
has selected Bombardiers Challenger
605 business jet as the platform for its
Maritime Surveillance Aircraft (MSA).
A company-owned Challenger 604 is
being modied with radar, EO sensor,
electronic support measures and a
mission system based on that devel-
oped for the P-8. Customer demon-
strations are planned in 2014, with the
MSA to be available beginning in 2015.
Leading the trend to use business jets
as platforms, IAI has already devel-
oped AEW&C, Sigint and multi-intel-
ligence variants of Gulfstreams G550.
Bombardiers Global is the platform
for both battlefield-surveillance and
communications-gateway missions.
Aviation Week Intelligence Network
(AWIN) forecasts deliveries of 471 mili-
tary transport/tanker aircraft over
the next ve years, valued at $57.2 bil-
lion. Thanks to its smaller CN235 and
C295, Airbus will lead in numbers with
38.4% of the total (181 aircraft) ahead of
Lockheed Martin (33.3%) and Boeing
Boeings King Air 350ER-based
Emarss is in ight test, but produc-
tion plans are unclear.
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(11.7%). And thanks to the large A400M,
Airbus will also lead in dollar terms with
38.4% of the forecast value of production,
again ahead of Lockheed Martin (31.6%)
and Boeing (19.3%). Embraer will begin
to make its presence felt when KC-390
DEFENSE SYSTEMS
Military Transports To Watch

MODEL/
DESIGNATION

CREW
WING
SPAN
(FT.)
MAX.
LENGTH
(FT.)
MAX.
HEIGHT
(FT.)

WING AREA
(SQ. FT.)
EMPTY
WEIGHT
(LB.)
GROSS
WEIGHT
(LB.)
POWER-
PLANT
(NO./TYPE)
POWER (SHP.)
OR THRUST
(LB.)

SPEED

PAYLOAD/
RANGE
(09)<: 4030;(9@
A400M Atlas 2+1 139.1 148 48.3 2,384 169,000 300,900 4 X EPI
TP400-D6
11,000 shp ea M 0.7 66,140 lb./
2,450 nm
C295 2 84.7 80.3 28.4 645.8 N/A 51,150 2 X P&WC
PW127G
2,645 shp ea 260 kt. 12,450 lb/
2,120 nm
(3,50( (,94(**/0
C-27J Spartan 2+1 94.2 74.5 31.6 882.6 38,581 70,107 2 X R-R
AE2100D2
4,637 shp ea 325 kt. 22,046 lb./
1,000 nm
(5;656=
An-70 3-5 144.5 133.7 53.9 2,181 163,140 319,675 4 X Prog-
ress D-27
55,200 shp ea 405 kt. 44,000 lb./
1,619 nm
,4)9(,9
KC-390 2 115 113.2 33.7 178,570 2 X IAE
V2500-E5
29,000 lb. ea M 0.80 41,890 lb./
2,000 nm
)6,05.
KC-46A 3-15 156.1 165.5 52.8 3,050 415,000 2 X P&W
4062
62,000 lb. ea M 0.86 212,300 lb.
(fuel capacity)
36*2/,,+ 4(9;05
C-130J-30
Super Hercules
3 132.6 112.8 39.5 1,745 79,815 175,000 4 X R-R
AE2100D3
4,637 shp ea 355 kt. 42,000 lb.
(max.)
Expanded Tables Online Download expanded specications on in-production and under-development military transports
Military Transport Aircraft
Unit Production
Lockheed
Martin
33.3%
157
Embraer
6.2% 29
Kawasaki
2.5% 12
Alenia Aermacchi
7.9% 37
Airbus
Military
38.4%
181
Boeing
11.7% 55
Total Five-Year Production: 471
Aircraft manufactured in China, India and Russia not forecast.
All percentages rounded. Includes tanker/transports.
Military Transport Aircraft
Value of Production
Lockheed
Martin
31.6%
$18.1
Airbus
Military
38.4%
$22
Kawasaki
4.7% $2.7
Alenia Aermacchi
3.4% $2
Embraer
2.5% $1.5
Boeing
19.3%
$11
All numbers and percentages rounded. Includes tanker/transports.
deliveries begin, scheduled for
2016.
The most popular platform
for manned ISR missions
remains Beechcrafts twin-
turboprop King Air. The U.S.
Army operates a large fleet
of varied models of the King
Air under the C-12 designa-
tion, and has begun a Future
Utility Aircraft program to
replace more than 112 C-12s
with a common fixed-wing
platform. The Army issued
an initial request for informa-
tion in March 2013, seeking
a twin-engine aircraft with
increased hot-and-high per-
formance and the ability to
operate in degraded visual
environments.
Meanwhile, the Army is
continuing development of the
Enhanced Medium Altitude
Reconnaissance and Surveil-
lance System (Emarss) based
on the King Air 350ER. Boe-
ing has produced four develop-
ment aircraft for testing, but a
production program is still in
question. At the same time, budget cuts
may force the U.S. Air Force to divest its
entire eet of 36 King Air-based MC-12W
Liberty ISR aircraft, acquired in 2009 to
meet urgent operational requirements in
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Similar to Russias vaunted S-300,
the FD-2000 edged out MBDA-led Eu-
rosams SAMP/T. Raytheons Patriot
placed third in the evaluation, prompt-
ing the U.S. to review whether factors
beyond costsuch as capabilityg-
ured in Turkeys decision. If nalized,
the deal would be a coup for China that
could transform the missile market.
Global missile production is project-
ed to be worth $65.4 billion over the
next ve years, up almost 6% from last
years forecast, with a steady increase
expected from $12.2 billion in 2014 to a
high of $13.8 billion in 2017. Production
will actually dropreecting the high
price of some systemsto 38,177 units
in 2018 from 42,576 in 2014. Forecast
International expects 202,200 missiles
of all types to be produced during the
ve-year period.
The anti-armor segment will slide
over the next fi ve
years, having entered
a transi ti on phase
where producti on
of older missiles is
wi ndi ng down but
repl acement sys-
tems have yet to en-
ter service. The U.S.,
for example, is not
expected to launch
full development of
its replacement for
the Lockheed Martin
AGM-114 Hellre, the
Joint Air-to-Ground
Missile, before scal 2015.
The ve-year anti-armor market will be worth $5.1 billion.
Total production will reach 109,925 missiles, but will decline
from a forecast 24,204 units in 2014 to low of 19,446 in 2018.
U.S. manufacturers Lockheed Martin and Raytheon are the
dominant players and together will account for a 30% ($1.5
billion) value share of the market. Europes anticipated posi-
tion has deteriorated, but will recover
as new systems become available.
Raytheon still produces AGM-65
Maverick and BGM-71 TOW missiles,
but is focused on nding new missions
for the AGM-176 Grifn mini-missile
used by U.S. special forces, including
defending ships against fast boats,
and customers for a smaller deriva-
tive, the Pyros. Europes MBDA,
meanwhile, is targeting U.S. sales,
aiming to get its dual-mode Brimstone
on Predator unmanned aircraft and
expanding the capability of its GBU-
44 Viper Strike munition.
The anti-ship market will total
$5.26 billion over the next ve years,
up almost 5% over last years forecast,
with production approaching nearly
6,500 missiles. Russia and China are
the leading producers, projected to
account for about 51% of production
DEFENSE SYSTEMS
and Larry Dickerson Forecast International
Marked Target
Competition increasing as China, new
systems shake up the missile market
Turkeys revelation in October that it
was negotiating to buy air-defense
systems from China shocked not only its
NATO allies, but also Western missile
manufacturers. Although not a done deal,
Ankara says Chinas ofer of CPMIEC
FD-2000 anti-missile systems costs less
and promises better technology transfer.
Missiles
Unit Production
*Norinco
15%
29,992
Raytheon
12%
23,744
MBDA
6%
11,232 KBP
Instrument
5%
10,413
All Others
53%
108,784
**CPMIEC
9%
18,479
Source: Forecast International
*Norinco: China North Industries Co.
**CPMIEC: China National Precision Machinery Import & Export Corp.
A
s Chinese and Russian air defense systems met notable
milestones last year, the U.S. Ground-Based Missile De-
fense (GMD) systemthe most sophisticated anti-missile sys-
tem deployedcontinued to produce disappointing test results.
GMD overseers at the U.S. Missile Defense Agency hope to
conduct a successful ight test of the system early in 2014;
the last successful intercept took place in December 2008. A
string of failures were due largely to complications with the new
Amy Butler Washington
GOING BALLISTIC
Raytheon Exoatmospheric Kill Vehicle (EKV); Boeing is the GMD
prime contractor.
Once the GMD booster and new capability enhancement
(CE-2) kill vehicle achieves a successful intercept, the agency
is hoping to test GMD more regularly. MDA is also studying op-
tions for a new kill vehicle that could replace the EKV and other
systems in the arsenal and, longer term, looking at the use of
unmanned aircraft for boost-phase kill options.
Meanwhile, the new Russian Almaz Antey S-350E air de-
fense system, dubbed the Vityuz or Viking, made its debut at the
2013 Moscow air show. It is intended as a replacement for the
S-300 series of surface-to-air-missile systems and will incor-
porate more advanced capabilities.
ALENIA AERMACCHI

(3,332 units) over the
next five years. But
their exports are ex-
pected to remain low,
as Western systems
are still preferred.
MBDA wi l l l ead
with production of
more than 800 mis-
si l es worth about
$450 million, with ex-
ports outside Europe
expected to account
for almost half of all
Exocet sales. Boe-
ing is forecast to sell
321 Harpoons worth $289 million, as the Block II missiles
low cost and risk ensures a steady ow of orders. Norways
Kongsberg Defense still sells the Penguin, but its Naval Strike
Missile will account for an increasing share of a forecast 171
deliveries worth $101 million.
France and the U.K. agreed in December to cooperate on
development by MDBA of a new he-
licopter-launched anti-ship missile.
The U.S. wants to eld a new stealthy
Long-Range Anti-Ship Missile by
2024, but controversy surrounds its
plan to bypass competition and have
Lockheed develop the weapon from
a demonstrator built for the Defense
Advanced Research Projects Agency,
based on the AGM-158 Joint Air-to-
Surface Standof MissileExtended
Range (Jassm-ER).
Jassm will give Lockheed the larg-
est share ($1.4 billion) of a long-range
strike market forecast at 18,550 mis-
siles worth $6.3 billion over the next
ve years. The closest competitors
are Raytheon ($737 million) with
the Tactical Tomahawk and AGM-
164 Joint Standof Weapon, and Rus-
sias Tactical Missiles Corp. ($524
million). MBDA, with forecast sales
worth $418 million, will see its Storm
Shadow qualied on the Euroghter Typhoon by 2015, along
with the MBDA/Saab Bofors Dynamics Taurus.
Air-to-air missile production is expected to be relatively
at from 2014 to 2018, with total deliveries of about 23,000
units worth $7.2 billion. Raytheons AIM-9X short- and AIM-
120 medium-range missiles will account for 27.3% of produc-
tion and 29.8% of value. The improved AIM-120D will be
elded in 2014, followed in 2015 by MBDAs rocket/ramjet-
powered Meteor. While MBDA is expected to garner a 10.6%
share of production, the relatively high price of its Mica and
Meteor missiles will give it a 20% share of value. Russias
Vympel, maker of the R-73 (AA-11) and R-77 (AA-12), will have
a 15.8% share.
The air-defense market also is expected to remain rela-
tively at over the next ve years, totaling 44,900 missiles
worth $19.2 billion. In value terms, Raytheon will dominate,
with a 35.3% share. In the naval sector, international demand
remains steady for the companys RIM-116 RAM and RIM-162
Evolved Sea Sparrow, while its longer-range RIM-174 SM-6
and anti-missile RIM-161 SM-3 carry hefty price tags. MBDA
is developing the Sea Ceptor for elding by the U.K. Royal
Navy in 2016 and has sold the AIM-132 Asraam-based missile
to New Zealand.
On land, a competition in Poland will
be the rst to pit the Lockheed Martin/
MBDA Medium Extended Air Defense
System (Meads) against both Patriot
and SAMP/T. The U.S. no longer had
plans to buy the co-developed Meads,
but partners Germany and Italy hope
to persuade Poland to join the program
to complete development and begin
production.
A new emphasis on short-range
defense against rockets and mortars
could spur sales of systems such as
Israels Iron Dome and Davids Sling,
which conducted its first ballistic-
missile intercept in November. Israel
alone could procure 13 Iron Dome
batteries, with India and South Ko-
rea possible export customers. The
U.S. Army, meanwhile, plans to eld a
surface-launched AIM-9X to counter
cruise-missiles and UAVs. c
Missiles
Value of Production
Raytheon
15% $10.1
Lockheed Martin
9% $5.8
All Others
53%
$35.2
**CPMIEC
7% $4.6
***MITT
7% $4.4
*CASC
8% $5.3
*CASC: China Aerospace Science & Technology Corp.
**CPMIEC: China National Precision Machinery Import & Export Corp.
***MITT: Moscow Institute of Thermal Technology
Turkey made a surprising decision in September to purchase
the China Precision Machinery Import and Export Corp.s HQ-9
air defense system over Russian, European and U.S. designs,
including the Patriot. As a member of NATO, it is unclear how the
new Turkish system will interoperate with U.S. and European sys-
tems in the NATO defense network. The deal is worth more than
$3 billion for 12 systems. Some U.S. industry experts say China
ofered a very low price alongside a sweetheart co-production
deal; they suggest the decision may not result in a contract.
The Raytheon-led Patriot and Lockheed Martin Terminal
High-Altitude Area Defense (Thaad) continue to garner interest
from foreign partners, with Middle Eastern countries at the fore-
front. Japan, however, has signed on for Patriot development
work, building of of improvements funded largely through the
2008 contract for the system signed by the United Arab Emir-
ates. Qatar is in talks for the Patriot as well.
With the development phase of the trinational Medium
Extended-Altitude Air Defense System (Meads) over, some coun-
tries are expressing interest in procuring the system and Meads
could become a contender in the area defense sector. The U.S.a
foundational partner alongside Germany and Italyhas opted not
to buy Meads, leaving Berlin and Rome to look for a third partner
to move into production. Poland is said to be highly interested,
though no announcement has been made. The Meads team, led
by Lockheed Martin, successfully intercepted both an air breather
and ballistic threats during a single test, its graduation exercise. c
Euroghter has begun ights to
qualify MBDAs Storm Shadow on
the Typhoon.

DEFENSE SYSTEMS
and Larry Dickerson Forecast International
Unmanned Progress
As the U.S. looks for export markets,
Europe plays catch-up in UAS development
The regions stumbling progress is
an opportunity for U.S. manufacturers
to export their systems and ofset the
cutbacks in Pentagon UAS procure-
ment, but the potential is limited by
the Missile Technology Control Re-
gime (MTCR) treaty, which bars the
sale of UAS with payloads of 500 kg.
or more without a hard-to-get waiver
from the government.
But even as U.S. defense spending
slows, the UAS market is expected to
grow. The military market for surveil-
lance and strike missions will be worth
$67.3 billion from 2013-20, Forecast
International projects. Of that total,
$35.6 billion will be for production,
$28.7 billion for research and devel-
opment, and $2-3 billion for UAS ser-
vices contracts. The production value
is divided between air vehicles ($14.2
billion), ground control stations ($6.6
billion) and payloads ($14.8 billion).
Despite cuts to the U.S. Air Forces
RQ- 4B Gl obal Hawk program,
Northrop Grumman will be the top
player in the UAS market. Even with
reductions in the USAF eet, the Glob-
al Hawk program will be worth some
$5.8 billion to Northrop through 2022,
including the U.S. Navys 68-aircraft
MQ-4C Triton program. Germany can-
celed plans to buy four Block 20-based
EuroHawks in May 2013, citing air-
space integration issues, but work to
declared an interest in the maritime-
surveillance Triton.
Northrop will also garner $679.5 mil-
lion by 2022 from its MQ-8 Fire Scout
vertical-takeoff-and-landing (VTOL)
UAS program. Flight tests of the 6,000-
lb. gross-weight, extended-endurance
MQ-8C, based on the Bell 407 helicop-
ter, began in October 2013 and produc-
tion is switching to the bigger variant.
For now, navies are the main mili-
tary customer for VTOL systems.
Ground forces are showing interest,
but programs are moving more slowly.
Europe is moving less slowly in small
rotary-wing UAS than in xed-wing.
Saabs 520-lb. Skeldar V-200 is op-
erational with the Spanish navy and
Scheibels 440-lb. Camcopter S-100
has been sold to four countries and
tested by several navies.
The U.K. awarded AgustaWestland a
contract to demonstrate an optionally
piloted, 4,000-lb. SW-4 Solo helicopter
on a Royal Navy ship in 2014 as a step
toward deploying a tactical maritime
UAS on warships by 2020. France con-
ducted similar land- and ship-based
trials with Boeings 3,100-lb. H-6U
Unmanned Little Bird, which also has
been demonstrated to the South Ko-
rean army.
General Atomics had been at the top
of the military UAS market for years,
due to demand for its MQ-1 Predator/
MQ-9 Reaper family, and remains the
leader in the largest sub-segment of
the market: medium-altitude, long-en-
durance (MALE) systems. The Preda-
tor/Reaper family is forecast to gener-
ate $5.5 billion in production value
through 2022, 40% of the segment
total and 16% of the entire market.
The U.S. Army continues to buy
MQ-1C Gray Eagles, but the Air
Force plans to halve MQ-9 procure-
ment from 2014, and the export mar-
ket is constrained by MTCR restric-
tions. In 2017, the Netherlands will
become the fourth European nation
to operate Reapers after France, It-
aly and U.K. Australia, Canada and
Germany are interested, but would
not place orders before 2015-16. The
United Arab Emirates has ordered
ve Predator XP export versions of
the MQ-1, and other Persian Gulf
states have expressed interest.
In November, the defense minis-
ters of France, Germany, Greece, It-
Europes shambolic efforts to create an unmanned-
aircraft industry to rival the U.S. and Israel continue.
But while the defense ministers of several nations have
taken steps towards developing a European medium-
altitude, long-endurance UAS by 2022, the tricky task
of persuading the regions industrial rivals to work to-
gether is only beginning. Even China looks as though it
could outpace Europe.
Major UAS Manufacturers
Percentage of Market Share, 2014-23
Northrop Grumman
18.2%
Global Hawk
General Atomics
15.5%
Predator
AAI
2.2%
Shadow
IAI
1.9%
Heron
Boeing
1.6%
ScanEagle
All Others
60.6%
deliver ve Block 40s to NATO by 2016
is continuing.
Eforts to export the high-altitude,
long-endurance UAS are progressing
slowly. South Korea intends to order
four RQ-4B Block 30s in 2014. Japan
could follow with four in 2015. Canada
and Norway are among nations eyeing
the Global Hawk, while Australia has
Tap the icon in the digital
edition of AW&ST to see a
video review of UAS develop-
ments in 2013, or go to
Italys Piaggio Aero P.1HH will be
the rst European-designed MALE
UAS.
P
I
A
G
G
I
O

A
E
R
O

42-hour ISR-only endurance
2,900 nmi mission radius
Field retrofitable to standard MQ-9 Reaper/Predator B
High-capacity landing gear
Proven multi-role platform for long endurance Intelligence, Surveillance and
Reconnaissance (ISR) missions
Q
AERONAUTICAL
TYUIOP
2013 General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Inc. Leading The Situational Awareness Revolution www.ga-asi.com

aly, Poland, Spain and the Netherlands
endorsed development by the European
Defense Agency of a common require-
ment for a MALE UAS to be developed
by 2020. An efort by France and the
U.K. to have BAE Systems and Das-
sault co-develop a MALE UAS, dubbed
Telemos, has been shelved, but in June
2013 EADS, Dassault and Alenia Aer-
macchi called for creating a European
program and began joint denition of a
twinjet MALE UAS.
Italy, meanwhile, will work with
Piaggio Aero and Selex ES to certify
the P.1HH HammerHeadthe first
European-developed MALE UAS and
a derivative of the P.180 Avanti business
turbopropand consider the system
for its long-term needs. A P.1HH demon-
strator made its rst unmanned ight in
November, and the UAS is to be ready
to enter service in 2015. Development
is being backed by Piaggios co-owners
Mubadala of the UAE and Indias Tata.
For now, European companies con-
trol less than 3% of the markets value,
but this share will grow as countries
expand their UAS assets. Meanwhile,
UAS orders from Africa, the Middle
East, and Latin America could exceed
DEFENSE SYSTEMS
UAS Market Share
By Location, 2014-23
Israeli
3.3%
European
2.85%
Pending Contracts
8.88%
U.S.
37.8%
All Others
47.17%
Unmanned Aircraft To Watch

MODEL/DESIGNATION

LENGTH
(FT.)

SPAN
(FT.)
GROSS
WEIGHT
(LB.)

POWERPLANT
(NO./TYPE)

POWER/
THRUST

PAYLOAD (WT./TYPE)

SPEED
(KT.)

ENDURANCE
MAX.
ALTITUDE
(FT.)
((0 *697
RQ-7B Shadow 11.8 20.4 460 1 X UEL AR741
rotary
38 hp 45-80 lb. (EO/IR//') 90-110 9 hr. 15,000
(,96=09654,5; 05*
RQ-11B Raven 3 4.5 4.2 1 X electric 200W 6.5 oz. (EO/IR) 17-44 60-90 min. 500
RQ-20A Puma AE 4.6 9.2 13 1 X electric 600W EO/IR 20-45 2 hr. 500
,3)0; :@:;,4:
Skylark I-LE 9.8 16.5 1 X electric 2.6 lb. (EO/IR) 20-40 3 hr. 15,000
Hermes 450 20 34.5 1,200 1 X UEL AR801
rotary
60 hp 400 lb. (EO/IR/LD) 70-95 17 hr. 18,000
.,5,9(3 (;640*: (,965(<;0*(3 :@:;,4:
MQ-1C Gray Eagle 28 56 3,200 1 X Thielert
Centurion 2.0 HFE
135 hp 1,075 lb internal/external 167 25 hr. 29,000
MQ-9 Reaper 36 66 10,500 1 X Honeywell
TPE331-10
900 shp 3,850 lb internal/external 240 27 hr.+ 50,000
05:0;<
ScanEagle 4.5 10.2 44 1 X NWUAV gas/HFE 1.9 hp 13 lb. (EO/IR) 48-80 24 hr.+ 19,500
RQ-21A/Integrator 7.2 16 135 1 X NWUAV gas/HFE 8 hp 37.5 lb. (EO/IR/LRF) 55-80+ 24 hr. 15,000+
0:9(,3 (,96:7(*, 05+<:;90,:
Heron 1 28.2 55.8 2,800 1 X Rotax 914 100 hp 550-880 lb. (EO/IR/LD,
SAR, ELINT, comm)
60-138 20-45 hr. 30,000+
Heron TP 45.9 85.3 10,230 1 X P&WC PT6A 1,200 shp 4,400 lb. (EO/IR, SAR,
ELINT, comm)
242 36 hr. 45,000
36*2/,,+ 4(9;05
Fury 1500 14.3 300+ 1 X HFE 75-125 lb (ISR + EW) 65-95 15 hr.+ 15,000
569;/967 .9<44(5
MQ-4C Triton 47.6 130.9 32,250 1 X R-R AE3007H 9,500 lb. 3,200 lb. internal
2,400 lb. external
357 24 hr. 56,500
MQ-8C Fire Scout 41.4 35
(rotor
dia.)
6,000 1 X R-R M250-C47E 700 shp 1,000 lb. internal
2,600 lb. sling load
140 12 hr. 17,000
70(..06 (,96
P.1HH HammerHead 47.3 51.2 13,500 2 X P&WC PT6A-66B 850 shp
each
500 lb. (EO/IR, SAR) 395 16 hr. 45,000
Expanded Tables Online Download expanded specications on in-production and under-development unmanned
aircraft and search more than 3,100 other systems at AviationWeek.com/specs

$2 billion during the coming decade,
with purchases by the Israeli defense
forces accounting for nearly half of this
total. The annual production value of
UAS in Asia will triple over the next
10 years, reaching $2.9 billion in 2022.
Sales in Asia could account for $18 bil-
lion of the markets value during this
period, with China claiming $13 billion
of this total.
In clear signs of Chinas growing
capability in the unmanned sector, in
September Japanese ghters inter-
cepted a Harbin BZK-005 Predator
A-class MALE UAS exercising with
warships, and in November a stealthy
unmanned combat air vehicle (UCAV)
made its first flight from Chengdu.
The Lijian (Sharp Sword) resembles
the Boeing Phantom Ray and Das-
sault Neuron UCAV demonstrators
in shape and size.
Demonstration flights of the U.S.
Navys Northrop X-47B carrier-ca-
pable unmanned combat aircraft will
continue in 2014, as will ight tests of
the Neuron and BAE Systems Taranis
UCAV demonstrators. The only major
new U.S. military UAS competition,
for the Navys Unmanned Carrier-
Launched Airborne Surveillance and
Strike, is to be decided by early 2015.
In the commercial arena, the FAA
estimates 7,500 civil UAS could be op-
erational in the U.S. within ve years,
provided regulations enabling safe in-
tegration into national airspace are in
place by the end of 2015 as planned.
The majority will be small UAS weigh-
ing less than 55 lb., the rst category for
which airworthiness certication rules
UAS Development Funding
By Region, 2014-23
Billions of Fiscal 2014 U.S. Dollars
Middle East
6.59%
$1.9
U.S.
38.36%
$11
Latin America
1.34%
$0.38 Western Europe
18.14%
$5.2
Eastern Europe
8.72%
$2.5
Asia
26.85%
$7.7
Total Value: $28.68 Billion
UAS Market Production Shares
2014-23
Values in Billions of Fiscal 2014 U.S. Dollars
Man-Portable
$1.3
3.6%

Tactical UAVs
$8.6
24.1%
UCAVs
$1.7
4.8%

VTOL UAVs
$3.0
8.4%

HALE
$7.3
20.5%
MALE
$13.7
38.5%

Total Value: $35.6 Billion
All percentages and numbers rounded.
will be available. Law enforcement and
precision agriculture will be the major
initial markets.
Europe is ahead of the U.S. in civil
UAS, with almost 1,000 in use, because
individual nations can approve op-
erations of systems weighing less than
330 lb. These rules are being harmo-
nized and the European Aviation Safety
Agency is developing regulations for
UAS above 330 lb., to enable civil air-
space integration beginning in 2016. c
Aviation Weeks
Military Fleet and MRO Forecast
Accurately Plan & Strategize for the Future
Aviation Weeks 2014 Military Fleet & MRO Forecast is the industrys
leading strategic planning tool.
In addition to tracking the number of deliveries and retirements over the
10-year forecast period, use the 2014 Military Fleet & MRO Forecast to get
an in-depth understanding of whats to come, including:
Q
Which global regions will see the biggest growth in MRO spending
Q
Which aircraft type will dominate MRO market growth
Stop Guessing What the Future Holds. Find out How Today.
Call 866.857.0148 (within N. America) or +1.515.237.3682 (outside N. America) or visit us at
awin.aviationweek.com/forms/MilitaryFleet for more information
2014
NOW HERE!

The bi gger manufacturers
were preoccupied with the grow-
ing light-twin market, and happy
to leave Frank Robinsons hugely
successful piston-engined R22 and
R44 to dominate the general-avi-
ation market. They had virtually
rejected their light singlesmany
with designs roots in the 1960s and
70sand all but starved them of
investment.
But the R66s success has gal-
vanized the industrys key players
to take another look at the single-
turbine market, which could see a
new lease on life in 2014, with no
less than three new light helicop-
ters emerging.
Bells Short Light Single (SLS) is
perhaps the most important. The
Model 206 JetRanger was a revolu-
tion when it emerged in the 1960s,
and helped shape Bells success
into the 1980s. Leading the trend toward dual-use helicop-
ters, the 206 was militarized as the OH-58 Kiowa. Few civil
helicopters have matched the JetRangers success, but Bell
ended production in 2010 to concentrate on other products.
With the SLS, Bell is trying to re-capture the market by
mixing an established dynamic system from the 206L4 Long-
Ranger with modern technologya digitally controlled Tur-
bomeca engine and Garmin integrated avionics. With a mix
of composite and aluminum airframe components, the battle
will be achieving a competitive price. Bell CEO John Garri-
son wants the SLS priced between the R66, at $835,000, and
Eurocopters EC120, at around $1.5 million. Plans to certify
the aircraft rst in Canada may hint at production there,
particularly as the U.S. company
steps up work on the larger Model
525 and the V-280 tiltrotor on ofer
to the U.S. Army.
Another newcomer will be a 2.5-
ton helicopter jointly developed by
AgustaWestland and Russian Heli-
copters, which they plan to certify
by the end of 2016. AgustaWest-
lands current turbine singlethe
AW119 Koalahas sold only in lim-
ited numbers. But the company is
banking on success with Russian
and CIS operators that have had to
buy Western light helicopters be-
cause their domestic supplier has
no equivalent product. Few details
are known about the aircraft, al-
though a mock-up is understood to
exist; hints suggest some design ele-
ments come from the Italian side of
the partnership.
Marenco Swisshelicopters SKYe
SH09 single-engine helicopter
AEROSPACE SYSTEMS
Tony Osborne London
Lightweight
Revolution
New light singles could change
the commercial rotorcraft market
The entry and rapid success of the
Robinson R66 in the light turbine
helicopter market has sent shock waves
through the industry.
Tap the icon in the digital edition of AW&ST to see a video
review of commercial rotorcraft developments in 2013,
Civil Rotorcraft
Unit Production
AgustaWestland
20.7% 1,019
MD Helicopters
2.1% 102
Robinson
10.5% 517
Bell Helicopter
18.2% 895
Sikorsky
4.1% 204
Eurocopter
44.4%
2,185
B
E
L
L

H
E
L
I
C
O
P
T
E
R

C
O
N
C
E
P
T
Bells surprise launch of the SLS
shows that the light helicopter
market is heating up.

completes the trio. Rolled out
in November, the newcomer
from Switzerland is an un-
likely entrant into a market
dominated by the major play-
ers. But Marenco is aiming
not at JetRanger-sized aircraft
but at the Bell 407 and Euro-
copter AS350, which have en-
joyed only facelifts since their
launches two or more decades
ago. Marenco says it has close to
50 orders, around half of them
from the U.S.
Sikorsky is still deciding what
to do with the light-helicopter
family inherited with the pur-
chase of Schweizer, which had
a strong position in the training
market, but appears focused on
its larger civil and military he-
licopters. Eurocopter is said to
be working on a successor to the
AS350, but has modernized its
single-engine product line including the EC130 T2.
The EC120, the European manufacturers only real coun-
ter to the R66 and SLS, is due for an update. Bell may also
continue modernizing its current products, including the
LongRanger. This continues to sell because of its larger
cabin, but it has not yet enjoyed the same investment as
the 407, now upgraded with Garmin G1000H avionics.
The Aviation Week Intelligence Network (AWIN) predicts
deliveries of close to 4,500 commercial helicopters by West-
ern manufacturers over the next ve years. Around 44% will
be produced by Eurocopter (soon to be Airbus Helicopters),
and 20% by AgustaWestland.
For oil and gas operators, 2014
will see the introduction of Eu-
ropes two new medium helicop-
ters, the AgustaWestland AW189
and Eurocopter EC175. Protracted
avionics certication and perfor-
mance changes pushed the EC175s
debut back a year. This has allowed
its Anglo-Italian rival to steal a
march, with Bristow Group plan-
ning to put the AW189 into service
on the North Sea in early 2014, just
ahead of the EC175.
Both types ll a niche in between
the heavier Eurocopter EC225 and
Sikorsky S-92 and smaller medium
twins such as the AgustaWestland
AW139, Eurocopter EC155 and new
Sikorsky S-76D. Joining the hotly
contested market will be Bells
Model 525 Relentless, to y in 2014,
and Russian Helicopters Ka-62.
Eurocopters long-awaited X4 is
expected to emerge from the shadows in 2014. To replace the
AS365 Dauphin, the X4 will incorporate many technologies
such as lower-noise rotor blades, y-by-wire controls and
advanced avionics. The company is also working on the X6,
understood to be a replacement for the Super Puma family,
while the X9 may be a light twin to replace the EC135.
AWIN, meanwhile, forecasts deliveries of 2,853 military he-
licopters over the next ve years, led by Sikorsky (30.8%) and
Boeing (19%). Eurocopter will take 10.8% and AgustaWest-
land 9.7%, and they will share in NH Industries 9.7% slice of
projected deliveries. c
Civil Rotorcraft
Value of Production
Robinson
1.4% 0.4
MD Helicopters
0.6% 0.2
AgustaWestland
40.1%
12.4
Eurocopter
34.3% 10.6
Bell Helicopter
13.0% 4.0
Sikorsky
10.5% 3.3
Commercial Helicopters To Watch

MODEL/DESIGNATION

CREW + PAX
ROTOR
DIAMETER
(FT.)
MAX.
LENGTH
(FT.)
MAX.
HEIGHT
(FT.)

GROSS WEIGHT
(LB.)

POWERPLANT (NO./
TYPE)

POWER

SPEED
(KT.)
HOVER
CEILING
(FT)
MAX.
RANGE
(NM)
(.<:;(>,:;3(5+
AW169 2 + 8/10 9,900 lb.-class 2 X P&WC PW210A 1,000 shp each 140
AW189 2 + 16/18 47.9 57.5 16.6 17,600 lb.-class 2 X GE CT7-2E1 2,000 shp each 150
),33 /,30*67;,9
525 Relentless 2 + 16 54.5 18,000 lb.+ 2 X GE CT7-2F1 1,800 shp each 140 kt.+ 400 nm+
Short Light Single 1 + 4 1 X TM Arrius 2R 504 shp 125+ 11,000 360+
,<96*67;,9
EC145T2 1 + 9 36.1 44.7 13.1 8,047 lb 2 X TM Arriel 2E 894 shp each 145 13,415 356
EC175 2 + 16/18 49.2 59.2 17.5 15,500 lb.-class 2 X P&WC PT6C-67E 1,776 shp each 150 kt. 680
9<::0(5 /,30*67;,9:
Ka-62 1 + 9-13 45.2 51.2 15.1 14,330 2 X TM Ardiden 3G 1,752 shp each 165 10,800 395
:0269:2@ (09*9(-;
S-76D 2 + 12 44 52.5 14.4 11,700 2 X P&WC PW210S 1,050 shp each 155 9,700 441
Expanded Tables Online Download expanded specications on in-production and under-development commercial
and military rotary-wing aircraft and search more than 3,100 other systems at AviationWeek.com/specs

Bell V-280 Valor 280 kt.
DEFENSE SYSTEMS
High-Speed
Rotorcraft Concepts
In 2014, the U.S. Army will select among four competing designstwo tiltrotors
and two coaxial-rotorsfor two high-speed rotorcraft it plans to y in 2017 under the Joint
Multi Role technology demonstration, a planned precursor to the Future Vertical Lift
Medium program to replace rst the Sikorsky UH-60 Black Hawk and later the
Boeing AH-64 Apache beginning in 2035.
AVX CCH 230 kt.
The Tiltrotors
The Coaxial-Rotors:
Sikorsky Boeing SB-1 Deant 230 kt.
Karem TR36D 360 kt.
Low disk loading, high
hover efficiency
Fixed engines,
tilting proprotors
Unswept, high
lift/drag wing
No blade fold
or wing stow
Side doors,
side-facing seats
Simple, light composite
airframe
Variable-speed proprotors
Light, rigid,
hingeless blades
Rigid, non-
gimballed hub
Tilting outboard
wing extensions
Long-span, low-drag wing
Reduced-
area V tail
Rigid coaxial rotors
Active vibration control
Integrated
propulsion
V
V
V
V
Hub and mast
low-drag fairings
Articulated coaxial
rotors for hover
effciency
Rear ramp and side doors
Stub wings offoad
rotors at higher speed
Ducted fans
for propulsion,
and deceleration
Variable-pitch
pusher propulsor

Guy Norris Los Angeles
Throttle Forward
Massive civil orders and growing military
sustainment form focus for engine makers
The weight of expectancy falls
heaviest on Pratt & Whitney and Gen-
eral Electric/Snecma company CFM.
An entire new generation of single-
aisle airliners is depending on their
PW1000G and Leap engines delivering
major fuel savings, and 2014 will mark
key test milestones.
As of December, Airbus and Boe-
ing held orders, options and commit-
ments for almost 6,400 A320neos and
737 MAXsa requirement for 12,800
engines before a single spare has been
purchased. Some 4,152 NEOs and MAXs
are on rm order, of which 880 have yet
to be allocated an engine. CFM and Pratt
have already collected orders for 6,540
Leap-1A/Bs and PW1100Gs, with a fur-
ther 1,764 engines up for grabs.
With its exclusive position on the
MAX, CFM has the lions share of the
market with over 4,900 rm orders for
Leap-1A/Bsalmost 60% of the com-
bined NEO/MAX orderbook. Including
Chinas Comac C919, for which CFM is
the sole Western engine provider with
the Leap-1C, total rm orders stand at
5,830. Pratt, with around 50% of the
NEO market, is thought to have firm
orders for 1,630 PW1100Gs. But includ-
ing PW1000G geared-turbofan variants
for the Bombardier CSeries, Embraer
E-Jet E2, Irkut MC-21 and Mitsubishi
MRJ, the order and option tally stands
at more than 4,800 engines.
CFM is ramping up tests of the Air-
bus, Boeing and Comac engines, and
by the end of 2014 expects to have 20
Leap-1A, -1B and -1C engines on test.
These include initial A320neo and
C919 engines for ight testing on GEs
747 testbeds, as well as the rst -1B for
the 737 MAX. CFM also continues to
break production records for the exist-
ing CFM56 family, in 2013 delivering
the 8,500th engine for Airbus, 10,000th
for Boeing and 25,000th overall. Pro-
duction passed 1,500 engines a year in
2013, putting CFM on track for 1,700 a
year by 2020, when both Leap-1s and
CFM56s will be produced.
The rst PW1100Gs are set for deliv-
With several engines due to make their rst test
runs or ights, and others ramping up production,
manufacturers face a pivotal 2014 as the boom contin-
ues in the civil aircraft market.
Tap the icon in the digital edition
of AW&ST to see a video review of
commercial and business aviation
propulsion developments in 2013,
AEROSPACE SYSTEMS
For more information including tickets and sponsorship
please visit www.aviationweek.com/events/laureates
or call +1.561.862.0005.

ery to Airbus in the second quarter of
2014, with the Pratt-powered A320neo
scheduled to y in October. While its
single-aisle revival strategy hinges on
maintaining at least a 50% share of the
A320 market, in place of the Interna-
tional Aero Engines V2500 which the
PW1100G replaces, Pratt is busy de-
veloping the other PW1000G variants.
Leading the pack is the PW1500G,
now ying on the CSeries. Flight-test
delays point to early 2015 as a likely
service-entry date from the initial
CS100 variant, barely months ahead of
the PW1100G-powered NEO in Octo-
ber 2015, while the delayed PW1200G-
powered MRJ and PW1400G-equipped
MC-21 are to follow in 2017. The newest
PW1700G and PW1900G variants are
to enter service on the E-Jet E2 series
from 2018 onward.
Rolls-Royce is continuing
its strategic withdrawal from
the mid-thrust market, with
Pratt in October assuming
full leadership of the V2500
under the buy-out plan nal-
ized in 2012. The U.K. manu-
facturer, with Pratt parent
company United Technolo-
gies, also scrapped the plan
to form a new mid-size en-
gine joint venture, hatched in
the wake of Rolls decision to
sell its share in IAE.
No reason was given, but industry
watchers were hardly surprised. De-
spite Rolls saying it remains fully
committed to this important market
segment, the decision to withdraw
from IAE and failed teaming means
Rolls has effectively ceded the mid-
thrust market to CFM and Pratt.
Future opportunities will almost cer-
tainly have to wait for A320neo and 737
MAX replacements late next decade.
Rolls withdrawal from the mid-
thrust market follows its strategic
decision to focus on the higher-value,
smaller-volume widebody engine
business. The company had hoped to
broaden its share of the twin-aisle mar-
ket, but with Boeings decision in 2013
to go sole-source with General Electric
on its 777X, the high-thrust market is
becoming polarized between Airbus-
Rolls and Boeing-GE partnerships. In-
siders say Boeings 777X engine deci-
sion was inuenced by several factors,
including the nancial support GE put
behind its GE9X sole-source bid, con-
cern over the development timeline for
Rolls proposed RB.3025, and worries
the new engine could be ofered later
as the basis of a follow-on Trent XWB
to power a stretched A350-1000 to
compete with the 777X.
Rolls continues to harbor ambi-
tions for its RB.3025 concept, as well
as a follow-on study engine designated
the RB.3039. Both are higher-bypass,
higher-pressure-ratio designs which,
at this stage, have a greater chance of
powering an Airbus than a Boeing. The
studies may result in a demonstrator
by 2020, says Rolls, which acknowl-
edges this could provide the basis for
a next-generation Trent for service
entry around 2025.
Nearer term, Rolls is studying how
to break into the valuable Emirates Air-
bus A380 franchise now held exclusive-
ly by the GE-Pratt Engine Alliance with
the GP7200. The airline wants a 10%
fuel-burn improvement with at least
some of the latest batch of 50 A380s
ordered in November. Engine Alliance
options range from software changes
to an all-new engine. Rolls is evaluat-
ing options ranging from scaled light
derivatives of the Trent XWB, through
adaptation of the Trent 1000 TEN in
development for the Boeing 787-10, to
designs based on the RB.3025.
Rolls immediate focus is on support-
ing ight tests of the latest Trent 1000
Package C standard on the 787-9, kicking
of development on the Trent 1000 TEN
for the 787-10 and ramping up work on
the Trent XWB-97 for the A350-1000.
The TEN is to run in the rst quarter
of 2014 and incorporates design fea-
tures from the Trent XWB powering
the A350 and the European NEWAC
technology demonstrator. With the
Trent XWB-84-powered A350-900 on
track for service entry in mid-2014, the
focus is shifting to testing of the more-
powerful variant. Thrust of the XWB-97
has increased more than 15% to 97,000
lb., but within the same overall nacelle
size as on the A350-800/900.
GE has transitioned GEnx-1B pro-
duction to the PIP II conguration and
is banking on the improved standard
to maintain its market lead on the 787.
Out of 1,012 aircraft on rm order as
of December 2013, 463 are powered by
GE and 243 by Rolls. A further 306 are
publicly undecided, of which around
160 are thought to be 787-8s. Including
GEnx-2Bs for the 747-8, GE planned to
produce more than 200 GEnx engines
in 2013, rising to 300 in 2014. Both the
GEnx-1B PIP II and upgraded -2B PIP
were to enter service by the end of
2013, and on the 787-9 later in 2014.
Buoyed by results of the rst tests
in 2013 of the advanced compressor
for the GE9X, GE says it is on track
to meet the higher thrust demands of
Boeings 777X while maintaining the
original fuel-burn reduction targets
over the GE90 on the current 777. The
company will complete a series of tech-
nology-maturation programs that will
wrap up with a core-engine test in mid-
2015 before the GE9X development
program begins, with the rst engine
to test in 2016. The GE9X is expected
to y on GEs 747 testbed in 2017 and to
be certicated at around 105,000-lb.-
thrust in 2018. Boeings plan calls for
initial deliveries of the 777-9X in 2020
and the smaller 777-8X in 2022.
In the military engine market, re-
duced defense budgets and a trend
favoring sustainment over procure-
ment have become facts of life. Other
than the Lockheed Martin F-35, big
programs that once provided the
bread-and-butter business for engine
makers are largely non-existent, and
the shift is toward upgrades, support
and emerging markets.
Yet amid the drawdowns, spending
continues on advanced developments
that will become pivotal to the future
military propulsion business. GE and
Pratt both expect to pass milestones in
2014 toward variable-cycle demonstra-
tors under the U.S. Air Force Research
Laboratorys Adaptive Engine Tech-
nology Development (AETD) program.
GE is on track for a preliminary design
review in November 2014. AETD will
conclude in 2016 following adaptive-fan
and core-engine testing.
AETD is aimed at post-2020 up-
grades to the F-35 and next-generation
GEs GE9X for the Boeing 777X will
need more thrust than expected but
deliver the same fuel-burn saving.
L
U
F
T
H
A
N
S
A
AEROSPACE SYSTEMS

combat aircraft from 2030 onward. The
concept aims to cut fuel burn for super-
sonic ghters about 25% by introducing
a third stream of airow, which can
be used to reduce fuel burn or boost
thrust. GE completed tests of a full
variable-cycle engine in late 2013, while
Pratt tested its adaptive fan concept.
Pratt, meanwhile, was forced to delay
a planned ramp-up in F135 production
to 2016 from 2015 after a further slow-
down in F-35 procurement. Compared
to forecasts in 2009, Pratt will make
400 fewer F135s between 2013 and
2020. F100 deliveries continue at a low
rate, but the companys dependence on
the F135 is now almost total, as 2013
saw the last F119 delivery for the F-22.
GE may be moving closer to launch-
ing the F414 Enhanced Durability En-
gine (EDE) for the Boeing F/A-18E/F
amid growing interest from the U.S.
Navy. The shrouded fan, which in-
creases airow by 10% while reducing
fuel consumption by 3%, was tested
late in 2013, and the upgrade could
begin in 2014. Sweden plans to pro-
cure 60 F414-powered Saab Gripen
Es and Switzerland 22. India plans
to purchase 99 F414-INS6 engines to
power the HAL Tejas light ghter. F110
deliveries continue for Saudi Arabias
upgraded Boeing F-15SAs.
The military turboshaft market,
while not recession-proof, appears
poised for modest growth, with the
U.S. Army set to launch its Improved
Turbine Engine Program around mid-
2014. GE and a Honeywell/Pratt team
have been testing new 3,000-shp tur-
boshafts amid signs the Army remains
committed to reengining its Boeing
AH-64 Apaches and Sikorsky UH-60
Black Hawks in the 2020s. The GE3000
and HPW3000 are being tested under
the Advanced Afordable Turbine En-
gine program, which is aiming for a
35% higher power-to-weight ratio and
25% lower specic fuel consumption
than the GE T700 engine now used.
Another large turboshaft, GEs 7,500-
shp GE38-1B, is to begin test ights in
2014 in the Sikorsky CH-53K heavy-lift
helicopter for the U.S. Marine Corps.
Israel is to be the rst international
operator of the Bell Boeing V-22 tiltro-
tor, powered by Rolls-Royces AE 1107C,
with Japan, Qatar and the UAE among
other potentials. Rolls, which recently
delivered the 1,500th AE 2100 turbo-
prop for Lockheed Martins C-130J, says
a WP-3D Hurricane Hunter of the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Ad-
ministration will be rst to get the T56
Series 3.5 enhancement package. The
upgraded engine, which showed nearly
a 10% fuel-burn reduction in ights on a
C-130, will enter service in 2015.
In other sectors, Rolls continues to
depend heavily on European collabora-
tive programs for production volume.
The 300th Eurojet EJ200, produced
with MTU, Avio and ITP for the Euro-
ghter Typhoon, was delivered in De-
cember. Rolls is teamed with MTU, ITP
and Snecma on the Europrop Interna-
tional TP400-D6 turboprop, production
of which is increasing as Airbus A400M
airliner deliveries ramp up.
Snecma is upgrading M88 engines
powering the Dassault Rafale and ex-
pects to bring the entire eet up to -4E
standard by 2020. As of December, Das-
sault was still awaiting a contract for
126 Rafales from India. And another
Indian air force contract still pending is
the reengining of its Jaguar strike eet
with up to 270 Honeywell International
Turbine Engine F125INs. c
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. YOULL CALL IT AWESOME.

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After more than a decade
of irregular warfare that has been
a driver of innovation in defense,
the focus is shifting to technologies
that can reduce costs as well as
increase capability
DEFENSE AND SPACE

Top
Technologies
To Watch
Digital Night Vision
Graham Warwick

Steam gauges gave way to display screens in ghters begin-
ning in the late 1970s, but it has taken decades for technol-
ogy to enable the vision of a big picture cockpit, where
the entire instrument panel is a customizable touchscreen
interface between human and machine. Large-area liquid-
crystal displays, combined with low-prole optical-wave-
guide head-up displays and helmet-mounted displays, are
transforming ghter cockpits. Elbits 11 X 19-in. display for
advanced versions of the Boeing F-15 and F/A-18 and Saab
JAS 39 Gripen brings iPad-like interaction to the cockpit,
with double-touch control of sensor imagery, terrain graph-
ics, mission information and system menus.
Big Picture Cockpit
The digital imaging revolu-
tion is coming to night vi-
sion. Analog goggles have
transformed warfare, al-
lowing operations with
only starlight for illumina-
tion. But a breakthrough
in digital image intensifi-
cation is bringing to night
vision the ability to share,
manipulate and store im-
agery. After development
challenges, Intevac Photo-
nics electron bombarded
active pixel sensor now
matches the performance
of analog devices and will
be elded as the night-vi-
sion sensor for the critical
helmet-mounted display
in the Lockheed Martin
F-35. Now the company is
developing digitally fused
image-intensication/
thermal-imaging night-
vision goggles around the
technology.
Proliferation of advanced jammers that can intercept and mimic radar signals rapidly and
accurately is spurring development of passive targeting technologies. In 2013, Boeing and
the U.S. Navy showed that two electronic-attack EA-18G Growlers and a Northrop Grumman
E-2D Hawkeye, sharing emitter-intercept data via a low-latency link, could track a moving
ship precisely enough to guide a missile to it, without radar. The demo used a Northrop
Grumman algorithm to geolocate the target by comparing the diference in arrival times of
signals at each platform. The next step is to demonstrate passive air-to-air targeting using
the F/A-18E/Fs electronic support measures and infrared search-and-track sensor.
Passive Precision Targeting
B
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E
I
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I
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T
E
V
A
C
S
A
A
B

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but also the power of Elbit Systems decades of experience
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cockpits of tomorrow.
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integrates a wide variety of
helmet-mounted, heads-up and panoramic displays with
advanced algorithms, sensor & data fusion and development
tools. The result - a complete, fully customizable multi-mission
cockpit that assures aircrews improved situational awareness,
reduced workload and enhanced ight safety.

GPS-Denied Navigation
Manned/Unmanned Teaming
Variable-Cycle Engines
Now a strength, aerospaces reliance
on GPS for guidance and navigation
could become a vulnerability with the
growing threat of jamming and spoof-
ing of the satellite signals. One answer
is the development of chip-scale iner-
tial measurement units (IMU) to give
every device a self-contained abil-
ity to navigate precisely when GPS
is denied. These require microscale
clocksSymmetricoms chip-scale
atomic clock weighs just 35 grams
micromachined 3-D gyroscopes and
new types of sensors. The U.S. De-
fense Advanced Research Project
Agencys (Darpa) goal is to develop a
10-cu.-mm single-chip IMU with the
performance of a 1,000-cu.-cm tactical
inertial navigation system.
The ability to display unmanned-aircraft sensor video in helicopter cockpits
has proved pivotal in two wars, and takes another step in 2014 when the
U.S. Army deploys to Afghanistan new Boeing AH-64E Apaches with the
ability to control its General Atomics MQ-1C Gray Eagle UAVs. Where the
AH-64D has Level 2 control of the UAV payload, the AH-64E is the rst
aircraft fielded with Lockheed
Martin-developed avionics al-
lowing Level 4 control of the air
vehicle itself via the K
u
-band tac-
tical common data link. Future
upgrades will provide multi-band
and multi-UAV control from the
Apache.
Burning less fuel and keeping things cool are the drivers behind development of a new type of combat-
aircraft engine that can vary its bypass-ratio between fuel-efcient subsonic loiter and high-thrust super-
sonic dash. Under the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratorys Advanced Engine Technology Development
program, General Electric and Pratt & Whitney will ground-test variable-cycle engines in 2016 that use
adaptive fans and a third airow streamoutside the core and bypass ductto vary bypass ratio and
generate additional cooling air for aircraft systems. Reengining the Lockheed Martin F-35 post-2020
and powering 2030-timeframe sixth-generation ghters are the programs targets.
DEFENSE AND SPACE
DEFENSE ADVANCED RESEARCH PROJECTS AGENCY
GENERAL ATOMICS AERONAUTICAL SYSTEMS
U.S. AIR FORCE RESEARCH LABORATORY

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DEFENSE AND SPACE
Wake-Vortex Surng
Geese do it, so why not aircraft? The
U.S. Air Force is looking at formation
flying to reduce the fuel burned by
its airlifter eet. Flight tests in 2013
showed a Boeing C-17 can reduce fuel
burn up to 10% by ying in the wing-
tip vortex of another C-17. Flying in the
upward side of the rotating ow shed
by the lead aircraft increases lift on
the trailing aircrafts wing, reducing
thrust required. Trials showed soft-
ware changes enabled the autopilot
and autothrottle to maintain position
3,000-6,000 ft. behind the lead C-17
without increasing crew workload.
The Air Force plans an operational
demonstration over the next few years.

Disaggregated Satellites
The military is wedded to large, expen-
sive satellites but talks about disag-
gregating their capabilities to smaller,
more numerous spacecraft to reduce
costs. Getting small milsats off the
ground is hard, however. Darpa can-
celed a demo of dispersing the func-
tions of a single satellite across net-
worked formation-ying smallsats, and
has shelved plans to y a constellation
of 30 imaging cubesats. But, for now,
the agency continues development of
the Alasa air-launch system to orbit
45-kg (100-lb.) payloads for $1 million
a time, and plans to demo the S-1 reus-
able spaceplane to loft 1,800-kg pay-
loads for $5 million a launch.

Reusable Smallsat Launcher
A bold venture to develop a commercial reusable launch system to orbit 250-kg
payloads for $11 million will get its rst test in 2014, when Swiss Space Systems (S3)
plans to y a mockup suborbital shuttle. S3 hopes to begin ight tests at the end of
2017. Launched from an Airbus A300, the unmanned shuttle will deploy its payload
on an expendable upper stage, then glide home. Commercial ights are scheduled
to begin in 2018 with the 30-kg CleanSpace One space-debris-deorbiting satellite
for Swiss university EPFL and the rst four of 28 5-kg microgravity nanosats for
Swiss exomedicine start-up Spacepharma.
S
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and William N. Ostrove Forecast International
Launch Party
Low-cost launch provider enters a business
that is beginning a downturn
With the third Falcon 9 v1.1 launch,
and second commercial mission (carry-
ing Thaicom 6), planned for late Decem-
ber, SpaceX could be close to meeting
the U.S. Air Force requirements for cer-
tication of the launch vehicle. At stake
are 14 launches the Air Force has set
aside for competitive procurementa
move intended, along with the rst-ever
block buy of 36 core stages with ULA,
to tame escalating EELV costs.
To give SpaceX a chance to demon-
strate its capabilities, the Air Force has
awarded the company two EELV-class
missions: the Deep Space Climate Ob-
servatory, to be launched by Falcon 9 in
late 2014; and the Space Test Program 2
satellite on the still-to-y Falcon Heavy
in mid-2015. SpaceX is expected to be
certied to compete with ULA as early
as 2015, for launches to begin in 2017.
A Boeing/Lockheed Martin joint
company, ULA produces the Alta V
and Delta IV launch vehicles. In a bid
to bring down costs in the face of bud-
get cuts and competition, the company
has priced the block buy aggressively,
basing pricing on the assumption it
will win all 50 launches. Reliability will
also be a factor, and ULA has made 77
consecutive successful ights as of the
Dec. 3 Atlas launch of a National Re-
connaissance Ofce satellite.
For SpaceX, gaining access to gov-
ernment business as it breaks into
the commercial market is important.
Launch service providers face a near-
term challenge as many of the bigger
commercial communications-satellite
operators near the end of large-scale
modernization programs. In addition,
internationally, many governments
are reducing satellite purchases to
cut spending and balance budgets.
Smaller regional players will continue
to purchase new satellites, but demand
for commercial launch services will
begin to decline in 2014 and continue
dropping for several years. Satellite or-
ders are forecast to begin rising again
after bottoming out later this decade.
In anticipation of a recovery and
to maintain its lead in the commer-
cial market against SpaceX and other
lower-cost competitors, the European
Space Agency is funding an upgrade to
the Ariane 5 operated by Arianspace,
and beginning studies to dene the ar-
chitecture of its successor, the Ariane 6.
With a 2,000-kg (4,400-lb.) increase in
payload capability to GTO, the Ariane 5
Midlife Evolution is expected to be op-
erational by mid-2018 at a development
cost of almost 1.5 billion ($2.1 billion).
Planned to be in service by 2021, Ariane
6 will use a common upper stage based
on the Vinci restartable cryogenic en-
gine, but with solid-rocket first and
second stages. With a smaller payload
than Ariane 5, Ariane 6 will also be
cheaper and simpler to y.
China, the main low-cost competitor,
continues to develop the Long March 5
rocket, which will more than double its
mass-to-orbit capability when launches
begin in 2014.
India plans a second attempt to y its
uprated Geostationary Satellite Launch
Vehicle Mk II, with indigenous cryogen-
ic upper stage, early in 2014. The rst
SPACE SYSTEMS
Successful launch of the SES-8 commercial commu-
nications satellite by Space Exploration Technologies
(SpaceX) Falcon 9 v1.1 booster on Dec. 3 could signal a
seismic shift in the launch-vehicle market. Not only was
the launch SpaceXs rst for a commercial payload to a
geostationary transfer orbit (GTO), it was another step
toward coveted certication of the Falcon 9 to com-
pete for lucrative U.S. government launches under the
Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle (EELV) program
long exclusively held by United Launch Alliance (ULA).
of AW&ST to see a video review
of space launch developments
in 2013, or go to
SpaceX plans 13 launches in 2014,
including the rst two Boeing
702SP all-electric communication
satellites.
SPACEX

launch in 2010 failed when the new
stage malfunctioned.
Two converted Soviet-era ballistic
missiles returned to the small-satellite
launch arena late in 2013, when the Rus-
sian-Ukrainian Dnepr and Russian-Ger-
man Rockot made successful launches,
providing competition for Arianespaces
Vega. The smallsat sector is seeing in-
creasing commercial demand, particu-
larly for optical and radar imagery.
In the human spaceflight field, the
driver for launches in the near term
will be the International Space Station.
Both SpaceX, with the Dragon cargo
capsule, and Orbital Sciences, with its
Antares booster and Cygnus capsule,
are under contract to NASA for rou-
tine commercial resupply missions to
the ISS, supplementing cargo ights by
Russian Progress, European ATV and
Japanese HTV automated spacecraft.
The next step is commercial crew
transport, planned to begin in 2017,
and 2014 will see key tests by the three
contenders: Boeings CST-100 capsule
and Sierra Nevada Corp.s Dream
Chaser reusable spaceplane, both of
which are intended to be launched
on the Atlas V; and SpaceXs manned
Dragon capsule. SpaceX plans critical
launch-pad and inight abort tests of
its integrated propulsion system in
mid-2014. Boeing is planning for a criti-
cal design review in spring 2014 and
unmanned test ight in 2016. Piloted
atmospheric drop tests of the Dream
Chaser are planned for 2014, leading
to an unpiloted orbital ight in 2016.
NASA, meanwhile, is continuing de-
velopment of the Space Launch Sys-
tem (SLS) heavy-lift booster and Orion
multi-purpose crew vehicle for human
deep-space exploration, but their
schedules are highly dependent on
adequate funding. For now, the initial
70-ton-capacity SLS is on track for an
unmanned lunar y-by ight in Decem-
ber 2017, carrying an instrumented
Orion, and a crewed test ight to lunar
orbit in 2021. For the Lockheed Martin-
built Orion, the major upcoming event
is an engineering test ight planned for
September 2014a Delta IV launch of
a protoype capsule to validate the heat
shield structural modeling.
In the new-space arena, Virgin
Galactic expects to begin commercial
suborbital passenger ights at the end
of 2014 with the air-launched Space-
ShipTwo. XCOR Aerospace has yet to
begin ight tests of its two-seat Lynx
Mk. 1, which will take of and land like
a conventional aircraft, and now aims
to ofer suborbital ights by early 2015.
Blue Origin is continuing development
of its New Shepard suborbital system,
and plans unmanned orbital tests of a
human capsule in 2018, on an Atlas V.
Partly funded by Microsoft co-found-
er Paul Allen, Stratolaunch Systems
plans to begin satellite launches in 2018
with its Orbital Sciences-developed Air-
Launched Vehicle, designed to place
payloads up to 6,000 kg in low Earth
orbit (LEO) after release from the car-
rier aircraft. Also in 2018, start-up Swiss
Space Systems plans to begin operat-
ing an air-launched system, based on a
Dassault-designed reusable unmanned
spaceplane launched from the back of
an Airbus A300 to carry up to 550 lb.
to LEO. c
With Amy Butler and Frank Morring
in Washington, Amy Svitak in Paris and
Bradley Perrett in Beijing.
SPACE SYSTEMS
Satellite Launchers To Watch

MODEL/DESIGNATION
LIFTOFF MASS
(LB.)
GTO PAYLOAD
(LB.)
LENGTH
(FT.)
FAIRING DIA.
(FT.)

STAGE/NO./TYPE

LAUNCH SITE

MANUFACTURER
(90(5,:7(*,
Ariane 5 ECA 1,719,600 22,000 166 16.4 0: 2 X solid; 1/2 cryo Kourou, French Guiana EADS Astrium
*/05( .9,(; >(33 05+<:;9@
Long March 3B/E 1,011,900 12,000 185 11 0: 4 X liquid; 1/2 liquid;
4 cryo
Xichang, China CALT
05+0(5 :7(*, 9,:,(9*/ 69.(50A(;065 0:96
GSLV 912,710 5,500 161 11.1 0: 4 X liquid; 1: solid; 2:
liquid; 4: cryo
Satish Dhawan, India ISRO
05;,95(;065(3 3(<5*/ :,9=0*,: 03:
Proton Breeze M 1,547,640 14,550 174 14.3 1-4: liquid Baikonur, Kazakhstan Krunichev
1(7(5 (,96:7(*, ,?7369(;065 (.,5*@
H-IIA 204 967,650 13,230 174 13.4 0: 4 X liquid; 1/2 cryo Tanegashima, Japan Mitsubishi Heavy Industries
:,( 3(<5*/
Zenit 3-SL 1,042,000 13,230 200 13.6 1-3: liquid equatorial sea launch Yuzhnoye
:7(*, ,?7369(;065 ;,*/5636.0,:
Falcon 9 735,000 10,000 180 17 1/2: liquid Cape Canaveral or
Vandenberg, USA
SpaceX
<50;,+ 3(<5*/ (330(5*, <3(
Atlas V 551 7,737,400 19,260 191 17.7 0: 5 solid; 1 liquid;
2 cryo
Cape Canaveral or
Vandenberg, USA
ULA
Expanded Tables Online Download expanded specications on in-production and under-development launch vehicles

The Global Xpress constellation of Boeing 702HP satel-
lites, which includes a fourth spacecraft on order to provide
redundancy and additional capacity, represents a $1.6 billion
investment by Inmarsat in the mobile broadband market.
Satellites are a popular solution for mobile communications,
such as to aircraft in ight and ships at sea. Carriers such as
United Airlines, Southwest Airlines and JetBlue plan to add
Wi-Fi across their entire eets of aircraft.
High-throughput satellites are a signicant development
in the industry. They can handle much
larger amounts of data, at higher speeds,
than traditional satellites through fre-
quency reuse and spot beams. Satellites
can aim beams at specic locations, al-
lowing them to use the same frequency
for multiple customers and increasing
the bandwidth a satellite can handle.
The K
a
-band portion of the electro-
magnetic spectrum is popular for high-
throughput satellites. This is partly
because it lends itself to spot beams, as
it is narrower than bands such as K
u
.
K
a
-band is also readily available, as it is
not used for other applications. K
u
-band,
for example, is used for direct-to-home
television broadcasting. Satellites such
as EchoStar XVII and ViaSat-1 have
popularized the use of K
a
-band for sat-
ellite broadband Internet. But the high-
throughput technology can be used on
satellites that operate at any frequency.
K
a
-band satellites will be a primary
supplier of the bandwidth needed to provide in-air broad-
band Internet connections, especially on oceanic routes,
where terrestrial transmitters are not available. Beginning
in 2015, Gogo in the U.S. and OnAir in Europe will provide
Global Xpress services to airlines. Honeywell will produce
the avionics and service the business aviation market. Boe-
ing will sell civil and military K
a
-band capacity to the U.S.
government.
Intelsat also is eyeing the aviation market for its planned
eet of EpicNG high-throughput satellites, the rst two of
whichIntelsat 29e to be launched in 2015 and 33e to fol-
low in 2016will provide broadband services using K
u
-band
frequencies, which it argues can penetrate weather better
than K
a
-band. Panasonic Avionics has selected the 29e and
33e satellites for its global in-ight communications services,
which include Wi-Fi, mobile phone and live television. Boeing
is under contract to build ve 702MP medium-power satel-
lites for Intelsat.
The growth of high-throughput communications for mo-
bile computing has blurred the divide between xed satellite
service providers such as Intelsat and mobile satellite service
(MSS) providers like Inmarsat. In an attempt to capture the
market for mobile data, many traditionally xed satellite ser-
vice providers have tapped the MSS market. For example,
satellite companies such as SES in Europe and Telesat in
North America now sell capacity to the airline in-ight broad-
band and shipping markets.
Although Inmarsats Global Xpress will provide the rst
global K
a
-frequency broadband services from a single op-
erator, there are several regional high-throughput satellites
already in service and more are planned. Launched in 2012,
ViaSat-1 provides K
a
-band coverage of North America and
Hawaii. JetBlue and another major U.S. airline were expected
to begin using ViaSat for in-ight internet and television ser-
vices by the end of 2013.
At the time, the Space Systems/Loral-built ViaSat-1 was
the highest-capacity communication satellite to be launched:
That crown is set to be taken by ViaSat-2 when it is orbited
in mid-2016. A Boeing 702HP satellite, ViaSat-2 will increase
K
a
-band capacity over North America and extend coverage
over Central America, the Carib-
bean, the northern edge of South
America and on to the primary
aeronautical and maritime routes
across the Atlantic.
Other regional K
a
-band service
providers include Abu Dhabis Al
Yahsat, which operates two EADS
Astrium/Thales Alenia Space sat-
ellites covering the Middle East,
Africa, Europe and South-West
Asia. Eutelsat covers Europe
with the Astrium-built KA-Sat.
Australias NewSat plans to serve
the Middle East, East Africa and
South West Asia beginning in
2015, with the launch of the Lock-
heed Martin-built Jabiru-1. Before
then, NewSats Jabiru-2 payload is
expected to be launched in 2014
onboard Malaysias Measat 3b
geostationary satellite. Jabiru-2
will cover Australia, Papua New
SPACE SYSTEMS
and William N. Ostrove Forecast International
Building
Bandwidth
Civil and military demand for
broadband communications
drives the satellite market
Growth in high-throughput
communications satellite capacity
continues with the Dec. 9 launch of the
rst of Inmarsats four Global Xpress
K
a
-band spacecraft. By the end of 2014,
when three of the new Inmarsat-5s are
planned to be in orbit, Inmarsat will
be the rst operator to provide global
K
a
-band services to xed and mobile
terminals with speeds up to 50 Mbps.
Satellites
Unit Production
Thales Alenia
25% 116
Astrium
7% 33
Boeing
5% 25
Lockheed Martin
5% 22
*CAST
6% 27
Total Five-Year Production: 463
*Chinese Academy of Space Technology
All Others
52%
240

To conne our attention to terrestrial matters
would be to limit the human spirit.
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- Stephen Hawking

Guinea, Timor Leste and
the Solomon Islands.
O3b Networks, which
is building a medium-
Earth- orbi t K
a
-band
constellation designed
to bring broadband con-
nectivity to the other
3 billion customers in
the developing world,
launched the first four
of 12 Thales Alenia-built
satellites in June 2013.
The delayed launch of
the second four is set for
the rst quarter of 2014.
O3bs investors include SES and Google.
While O3bs satellites each weigh just 700 kg (1,543 lb.), the
trend has been toward larger, increasingly powerful space-
craft better able to support smaller ground equipment. These
satellites can handle the large number of high-power tran-
sponders needed to transmit high-denition video, broad-
band Internet and other data services that are in demand.
Lithium-ion batteries and gallium-arsenide solar cells are
being used to increase satellite power output.
Boeing, Lockheed Martin and Space Systems/Loral (now
owned by Canadas MacDonald, Dettwiler & Associates)
have seen success by focusing on large satellites. In July
2013, the European Space Agency launched the Astrium-
developed Alphasat, Europes largest-ever communications
satellite. Exceeding 6,600 kg on launch, Alphasat has joined
Inmarsats L-band mobile-communications eet. For future
missions, the new Alphabus design will be able to provide
up to 22 kW. of power to advanced payloads weighing up
to 2,000 kg.
But the market for smaller satellites is also opening up.
Asia Broadcast Satellite and Mexicos Satmex are jointly
procuring four satellites based on Boeings new 702SP bus,
a lightweight platform that uses all-electric propulsion to re-
duce launch mass and cost. Xenon-ion propulsion has been
used in the past to keep satellites in
their intended orbits, but not to put
them into orbit after launch. This is
because electric propulsion is slower
than chemical thrusters, and it can
take up to six months to reach orbit.
The advantage is that ion propulsion
does not require the large amounts of
oxygen and hydrogen that are used as
propellant. This can save substantial
weight, reducing launch costs and in-
creasing the number of transponders a
satellite can carry. Boeing, meanwhile,
has launched its Phantom Phoenix line
of small satellite prototypes, available
in three congurations: 500-1,000 kg,
180 kg and 4-5 kg.
Operational constellations of small-
er, lower-orbiting satellites are being
renewed and extended. Iridium Com-
munications plans to begin launching
its 66-satellite Iridium Next constel-
lation in 2015. Hosted-payload space
on the 800-kg Thales Alenia-built spacecraft has been
fully sold, so the operator is ofering to launch third-party
payloads on stand-alone satellites under the name Iridium
Prime. This will take advantage of the existing satellite
production line and operating infrastructure. The major
hosted-payload customer for Iridium Next is Aireon, a joint
venture between Iridium and Nav Canada to provide space-
based tracking of aircraft in remote and oceanic airspace
using automatic dependent surveillance-broadcast.
Orbcomm plans to launch 18 second-generation OG2 satel-
lites, focused on the machine-to-machine communications
for asset management. The delayed launches are planned
for 2014 and manufacturer Sierra Nevada Corp. has options
to build another 30 of the 142-kg satellites. All the OG2s will
incorporate automatic identication system (AIS) payloads
to track ships globally. ExactEarth, meanwhile, launched a
fth AIS satellite for its global vessel monitoring service in
November.
The top commercial communications satellite manufac-
turers include Boeing, EADS Astrium, Lockheed Martin,
Orbital Sciences Corp., Space Systems/Loral and Thales
Alenia Space. In the past, Boeing
and Lockheed Martin have fo-
cused on government programs,
but as these wind down, the satel-
lite giants are reentering the com-
mercial marketplace.
Meanwhile, to cut costs, mili-
taries have come to rely upon the
commercial sector. The U.S. Navy
is supplementing UHF capacity on
its UFO and MUOS constellations
with capacity provided by Intelsat
General, the U.K.s Skynet service,
and Italys Sicral. The UHF capac-
ity crunch is caused partly by de-
lays to the Lockheed Martin-led
MUOS program, which is replac-
ing the UFO eet, and because of
increased demand for bandwidth
from warghters.
Hosted-payload schemes, un-
der which a government pays an
operator to install a government-
SPACE SYSTEMS
Satellites
Value of Production
Astrium
14% $9.7
Lockheed Martin
15% $10.1
All Others
45%
30.9
Thales Alenia
10% $6.8
Space Systems/Loral
6% $4.1
Boeing
10% $6.6
Launched in July 2013, the 6,600-kg Alphasat is
Europes largest communications satellite yet.
E
U
R
O
P
E
A
N

S
P
A
C
E

A
G
E
N
C
Y

developed payload on board a commercially operated sat-
ellite, are another concept the military hopes will increase
capabilities and reduce costs. Developing a hosted payload
for a commercial satellite is much cheaper than designing,
building, launching and maintaining a satellite or constella-
tion. It gives the government the exibility to deploy a single
payload where it is most needed onboard a satellite already
scheduled for launch. In turn, payment for hosting payloads
helps commercial operators fund new satellite purchases.
But there are hurdles in the way of hosted payloads, includ-
ing a lack of dedicated funding lines, a lack of standardized
business or pricing models on which to base contracts, and a
development process that does not coincide with a commer-
cial development cycle. Hoping to resolve this, the Pentagon
in August released a solicitation for an indenite delivery/
indenite quantity contracting vehicle that will pre-qualify
bidders and enable the U.S. Air Force to regularly use space
on commercial satellites to host payloads.
Some U.S. military planners are pushing for smaller, less
expensive satellites as alternatives to the current crop of
large, complex and costly platforms. Known as disaggrega-
tion, the concept would consist of purchasing larger num-
bers of smaller, relatively less sophisticated satellites than
the current eets of AEHF, MUOS and others. Networks of
smaller satellites would be more resilient to attacks, and dis-
aggregation could reduce costs and development times, but
it requires a change in the Pentagons mindset.
European nations, with considerably smaller financial
resources, use data-sharing agreements to maximize their
space capabilities. The U.K., France and Italy are separately
developing their respective Skynet 5, Syracuse III and Si-
cral military communications satellites, but have agreed to
bundle their services to provide NATO with UHF and SHF
communications capacity.
This approach is especially useful within the reconnais-
sance sector, where having more satellites translates into
greater coverage and increased refresh rates. Italy, France,
and Germany have established a multilateral agreement by
which they will exchange set periods of satellite tasking on
each others reconnaissance satellites: Frances Helios 2 and
Pleiades, Italys Cosmo-SkyMed and Germanys SAR Lupe.
While some planners have discussed creating a single
pan-European satellite architecture, several hurdles need
to be overcome. European nations would need to purchase
ground equipment that would be compatible with a new sys-
tem. Governments continue to argue over the makeup and
capabilities of such a system, and the most likely course will
be for European countries to continue the current arrange-
ment in which each builds smaller networks and shares
capabilities.
In terms of value, the U.S. accounts for more than two-
thirds of military satellite production, forecast to be worth
more than $22 billion over the next decade. Over the same
period, Japan will account for 7.8% of satellite purchases by
value, Russia 5.7%, France 4.2% and China 4.2%. Boeing and
Lockheed Martin will continue to dominate the military satel-
lite market. Other major players include Mitsubishi, Astrium
and Russias ISS Reshetnev. c
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If 2013 was the year of two very important first
flights, 2014 will have to be an important year of
execution: Airbus has committed to delivering the rst
A350-900, Boeing will hand over the rst stretched
787-9, and the rst Bombardier CS100 is still ofcially
due for entry into service.
Airbus is facing a crucial 12 months
as it enters the second half of the A350-
900 ight-test program. Two aircraft,
MSN1 and MSN3, are currently per-
forming the tests, which Airbus says
have been mostly successful so far. Fol-
lowing an initial phase of handling tests,
Airbus has continuously moved into the
part of the campaign that is addressing
a long list of items required for certi-
cation. Three more aircraft are to join
the ight-test programMSN2, MSN4
and MSN5the rst two in February
and the last in May. Airbus expects the
aircraft to receive its type certicate at
the end of August or in early Septem-
ber, a little more than 14 months after
rst ight. Qatar Airways will then take
delivery of the rst aircraft in the fourth
quarter.
Airbus currently holds 814 rm or-
ders for the A350, the bulk of which
(549) are for the baseline A350-900.
Meanwhile, Airbus is shifting engineer-
ing resources to the stretched A350-
1000, due to enter service in 2017. There
are 186 rm orders for the -1000, which
has seen a notable pick-up in demand.
Airbus has pushed back entry into ser-
vice of the -1000 by almost two years to
allow more time for Rolls-Royce to up-
grade the engines as demanded by key
customers, mainly Persian Gulf carriers
Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways.
The future of the smallest version,
the A350-800, appears to still hang in
the balance. Airbus is officially com-
mitted to building the aircraftthe
backlog has shrunk to 79 unitsbut
the manufacturer is now hearing from
customers that it should seriously con-
sider stretching it to counter the threat
posed by the newly launched Boeing
777X. While Airbus is unlikely to make
Jens Flottau Frankfurt, Guy Norris Los Angeles
and Bradley Perrett Beijing
Delivery Time
Major new aircraft programs are about to reach
certication; others to advance in 2014
a formal decision next year, 2014 will be
a crucial time to prepare for that step.
Airbus is proud that its A330 has
been selling so well in recent years,
and in fact has outsold the 787 since
its launch. But in spite of the launch of
the 242-ton version that increased its
range, and a regional variant optimized
for shorter-haul efciency, there are in-
dications that the A330 boom may not
continue. From January to November
2013, Airbus sold just 48 of the type,
compared to the 164 Boeing garnered
for the 787.
If that trend continues, Airbus may
not only face serious questions about
the future of the A350-800, but may
also have to take a close look at what
it could do do refresh the A330 further.
Some of its customers, most notably
Air Asia X, have been asking for a
reengined version. Since the market
success of the A320neo, the concept
has gained traction to the extent that
Emirates now wants the A380 to be re-
engined; so it is clearly an option for
the A330, although Airbus has been
trying to play down that idea so far.
The formal launch of the 777X at the
Dubai Airshow in November marked
a watershed for Boeing, which moves
from a multi-year period of planning
into an intense phase of program exe-
cution. The new-generation long-range
twin family is the nal piece of a 12-year
product development plan covering the
150- to 450-plus-seat range with four
major models and nine variants.
The go-ahead for the 777X therefore
Commercial
of AW&ST to see a video review
of commercial air transport
developments in 2013, or go to
The Airbus A350-900 is planned
for delivery to its rst operator, Qatar
Airways, in the fourth quarter of 2014.
A
I
R
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sets the stage for an extremely hectic
2014 for Boeing which, among other
systems and airframe design deci-
sions, must still choose a site where
the big twin and its all-new composite
wing will be assembled. The thorny is-
sue is due to be decided in the rst
quarter of the year and could see
a new phase of Commercial Air-
planes strategic expansion out of
Washington state.
Bids from 15 sitesincluding
Huntsville, Ala.; Charleston, S.C.;
Long Beach, Calif.; Salt Lake City,
and San Antoniowere due for
review around year-end. Despite
Novembers controversial No vote
by the machinists union to Boeings
proposals that would keep the 777X
at Everett, insiders suggest Wash-
ington state is still the most logical
site.
Following in the footsteps of the
787-8, 787-9 and 787-10, which was
launched in mid-2013, the 777-8X
and -9X bridge the gap to the 747-8,
partially overlapping with the larger
aircraft and providing a twin-engine
replacement for 747-400s. The 777X
also becomes the heir apparent to the
777-300ER, Boeings dominant long-
haul twin, as well as its principal chal-
lenger to the Airbus A350-1000. Boeing
will spend most of 2014 completing the
overall design and conrming selection
of most key suppliers over the rst half
of the year. Firm conguration will be
COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT
Commercial Aircraft To Watch

MODEL/DESIGNATION

PAX
WING
SPAN
(FT.)
WING
AREA (SQ.
FT.)
MAX.
LENGTH
(FT.)
MAX.
HEIGHT
(FT.)
EMPTY
WEIGHT
(LB.)
GROSS
WEIGHT
(LB.)

POWERPLANT
(NO./TYPE)

MAX.
SPEED

CRUISE
SPEED

RANGE
(NM.)
(09)<:-
A320neo 150 117.4 1,313 123.3 38.6
2 X CFM Leap-1A or
P&W PW1127G
M 0.82 M 0.78
3,800
est
A350-900 314 213 4,770 219.5 55.9 255,080 591,000 2 X R-R Trent XWB-83 M 0.89 M 0.85 8,100
A350-1000 369 212.5 4,770 242.5 56 679,000 2 X R-R Trent XWB-97 M 0.89 M 0.85 8,400
)6,05.
737 MAX 8 162 117.8 129.5 41 181,200 2 X CFM Leap-1B M 0.79 3,620
787-9 250-290 197 3,500 206 56 553,000
2 X GE GEnx-1B or
R-R Trent 1000
M 0.89 M 0.85
8,000-
8,500
787-10 300-330 197 3,500 224 56 553,000
2 X GE GEnx-1B or
R-R Trent 1000-Ten
M 0.89 M 0.85 7,000
)64)(9+0,9 (,96:7(*,
CS300 130-160 115 1,209 127 38 144,000 2 X P&W PW1500G M 0.82 2,950
,4)9(,9
E190-E2 97-114 119 36 125,400 2 X P&W PW1900G M 0.82 2,800
092<;
MS-21-200 150-162 117.8 117.8 37.8 149,000
2 X Aviadvigatel PD-14
or P&W PW1400G
3,100
40;:<)0:/0 (09*9(-;
MRJ70 78 95.9 109.6 34.4 47,800 79,807 2 X P&W PW1217G M 0.78 918
:<2/60 *0=03 (09*9(-;
Superjet 100-75 68-78 91.2 86.8 33.8 85,600 2 X PowerJet SaM146 M 0.81 M 0.87 1,800
Expanded Tables Online Download expanded specications on in-production and under-development
commercial aircraft and search more than 3,100 other systems at AviationWeek.com/specs
Commercial Aircraft
Unit Production
Bombardier
3.5% 337
ATR
4.8% 457
Airbus
38.6%
3,693
Embraer
6% 574
All Others
5.6% 535
Boeing
41.4%
3,962
Commercial Aircraft
Value of Production
Airbus
43.5%
$522
Embraer
1.6% $18.9
Bombardier
1.5% $17.8
ATR
0.8% $9.4
All Others
1.4% $17.2
Total Five-Year Value of Production: $1,199 billion
Boeing
51.2%
$614

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set in 2015, with detailed design follow-
ing in 2016 and production beginning
in 2017.
The coming year will also be pivotal
in the fortunes of the 787 program, with
further stabilization of the production
line, continued eforts to improve reli-
ability, delivery of the rst 787-9s and
a stepping-up of design work on the
787-10. Measuring 224 ft. in length, the
-10 will be 38 ft. longer than the original
787-8 and capable of seating up to 330
passengers, which aims it at the heart
of the A330 market.
The 787 program was of to a good
start in 2013, amassing 120 rm orders
by December following a late boost from
Etihad, which announced a contract
for 30 at the Dubai Airshow. The deal,
which also marked the 1,000th order
for the 787 family, sees the backlog di-
vided more or less equally between the
standard 787-8 and the two stretched
models. Of the two extended versions
the 787-9 has 396 orders, or 39% of the
rm backlog, while the 787-10 has 12%.
The 787-9 certication campaign is
scheduled to be completed in the sec-
ond quarter of 2014, with delivery to
launch customer Air New Zealand set
for mid-year.
Meanwhile Boeing will ramp-up 737
production to 42 per month in the rst
half of 2014 and begin assembly of the
rst 737 MAX in 2015. Boeing currently
makes 38 737s a month at its Renton,
Wash., site and is setting up a new as-
sembly line within the facility to pro-
duce the initial MAX aircraft alongside
the 737-700, -800 and -900 variants.
Boeing will spend the rst quarter
of 2014 working through layouts and
preparing assembly drawings, as well
as performing detailed design of the re-
vised aft section. Detailed design draw-
ings will be released over the remainder
of the year, with assembly underway in
2015 and ight tests starting in 2016.
Bombardier is expected to update
the ight-test and entry-into-service
schedule for the CS100 at the begin-
ning of 2014. The company has publicly
stated that it targets rst delivery 12
months after first flight. But many
have seen that as being too ambitious
and even Bombardier conrms that a
review is coming. Analysts more or less
agree that the aircraft will be delivered
for the rst time only in 2015. Regard-
less of whether the rst CS100 will ac-
tually be delivered in 2014 or not, the
company continues to face the massive
challenge of having to establish the
aircraft in the marketplace against
the very aggressive competition from
Airbus and, to a lesser extent, Boeing.
Bombardier lost three key CSeries
campaigns in 2013Vueling, Easyjet
and Air Asiaand it urgently needs
better news in 2014 if only to reassure
investors. As of December, it had 182
orders; the company is targeting 300
before the delivery of the rst aircraft.
Flight tests have been slow to pick up
following rst ight, and a second pro-
totype, FTV-2, was to join the program
around the end of the year.
Facing new challengers in its region-
al and small-airline market sector, Em-
braer is well into the detailed design of
its recently announced E2 derivative
family, and picking up a batch of fresh
orders for the current E-Jet genera-
tion. The rst E2 variant, the 106-seat,
Pratt & Whitney PW1900G-powered
E190-E2 is scheduled to enter service
in 2018 with the 132-seat E195-E2 fol-
lowing in 2019 and 88-seat E175-E2 in
2020. They are designed to offer 16-
23% fuel-burn improvements and 15%
lower maintenance costs over the cur-
rent variants.
Embraer is targeting up to a 45%
share of a market it estimates at 6,400
deliveries over the next 20 years, with
the 175 being marketed as a hub feeder,
the 190 an optimally sized market
opener and the 195 serving E-Jet op-
erators that want to upsize. Despite
coming late to the party, its prospects
appear bright, thanks at least in part to
delays sufered by its new competitors.
Production of the current-gener-
ation family is back on a more stable
footing, after orders rebounded fol-
lowing a painful slump. Embraer was
forced to slash production by 40% after
the onset of the global economic crisis
in late 2008, to about eight per month.
But in 2013 the company was helped by
orders for more than 280 E-Jets from
airlines such as Republic, United and
SkyWest. Total backlog has risen to
more than 240 current-generation E-
Jets and more than 200 E2s.
Manufacturing of the rst prototype
of the Comac C919 should be under-
way by the end of 2014, if there are no
further program slippages. A second
program delay following one that was
not announced has left Comac target-
ing late 2015 for the rst ight of the
C919. The iron bird, a ground rig on
which systems are tested, was due
to be operational for mechanical and
hydraulic systems around the end of
2013, and should be working with all
systems in mid-2014.
On the current plan for ight testing,
a rst delivery in 2017 is likelyor 2018
if there are more problemscompared
with the original target of 2016. Indus-
try executives familiar with Comac say
the state agency sufers from inexperi-
ence and a bureaucratic culture; it and
its predecessor have been working on
the ARJ21 regional jet since 2002. First
delivery of the ARJ21 is due next year,
after about 12 years of development.
The Mitsubishi Aircraft MRJ should
make its delayed rst ight in the sec-
ond quarter of 2015 again, if there are
no further delays. Although the manu-
facturer has made no announcement,
the rst prototype should be rolled out
in 2014; it is now being assembled.
This program has been shifted
to the right three times by a total of
more than three years, mainly because
Mitsubishi Aircraft made mistakes in
preparing for the MRJs certication.
First delivery is due in 2017. c
COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT
The Bombardier C Series, ofcially
due for rst delivery in late 2014, is
still awaiting a market breakthrough.
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Narrowbody
Technologies
After the major technology leaps of
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now in development seem anti-climactic
but they are more advanced than they seem on
the surface. New airframe, engine and system
technologies are combining to produce signcant
fuel-efciency gains over todays narrowbodies.
CFM Leap-1B - 15%*
*
Bombardier CSeries - 20%*
Boeing 737 MAX - 14%*
Pratt & Whitney PW1500G - 14%*
Very high
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fan blades
Higher low-pressure spool
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High aspect-ratio (11:1)
wing + optimized winglet
Composite resin transfer
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Very high bypass-ratio
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Three-axis, full fly-by-wire,
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Fuel-consumption improvement over
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Advanced winglet
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Titanium
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3D woven composite
fan blades, platforms,
spacers and case
High bypass ratio
Additive-manufacture
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High pressure-ratio core
Optimized low-pressure
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3:1 reduction
gear system,
no life limit
Fewer LP stages, lower
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Blisked high-pressure
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American and US Airways will start their integration on the
product side by combining frequent-ier programs and res-
ervation systems, coordinating schedules and moving closer
together at airports. The more difcult process of integrating
marketing, IT and nancial systems will take a lot longer, prob-
ably most of the 18 months needed to obtain a single operating
certicate from the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration.
When you are in the process of doing this, you are not run-
ning at full efciency, and there will be bumps in the road, says
George Hamlin, head of Hamlin Transportation Consulting.
A major meltdown is a possibility, but Im not looking for it.
Delta Air Lines managed a relatively smooth combination
when it took over Northwest Airlines in 2007 to become the
worlds biggest carrier. It technically was knocked down to
second place by Uniteds tie-up with Continental in 2010, but
its head start and solid implementation record gave it a com-
petitive advantage, shown in its impressive recent prots
that have led its peers by a signicant margin. Now United
is beginning to stabilize, but the new American is about to
take the top spot, relegating Delta to No. 3.
Next year is about United getting their merger finally
completed and the revenue side of their house optimized,
American and US Air beginning the process of completing
their merger, and Delta fending of increased competition for
corporate business, says Robert Mann, an aviation consultant.
Uniteds merger-related troubles, after struggling to inte-
grate Continental, should be cleaned up now, which means
the second-biggest carrier will operate as a regular airline in
2014 instead of just xing problems, says Michael Derchin,
an analyst at CRT Capital Group.
That focus is needed as United, like Delta, now has to deal
with a much bigger, and potentially much stronger, Ameri-
can. Americans new CEO Doug Parker knows all too well how
difcult mergers can be. US Airways integration of America
West was a merger from hell that sufered from big, big, big
implementation problems, says Adam Pilarski, at consultancy
Avitas. But Parker is considered one of the most dynamic air-
line CEOs. The question is whether American Airlines will be
able to take on its two big competitors so soon while integrat-
ing with US Airways at the same time.
The integration of those companieshow effective a
competitor will they be, how they affect the competitive
landscape as the largest airline in the worldwill be a big
issue, Derchin says. Mann points out that it is kind of a
moving target for corporate contracting, and that is where all
the money is. Large corporate accounts like
to buy from the single biggest store, which
is the largest network. So we will see stif
competition to retain that.
Delta will use 2014 to continue expanding
aggressively in Seattle and California, driving
speculation that it is trying to push Alaska
Airlines into a combination. United is not
as well positioned yetthey are still making
sure their merger worksand American and
US Airways are in the process of merging,
so it is a great time for Delta to try to steal
the competitive march, Hamlin says. A good
small carrier is always going to be vulnerable
to the attentions of a larger unwanted one.
But Alaska Airlines may have another option. They have
always had a close relationship with American as well as
with Delta, so it will be interesting to see if they tap in more
closely with American than they currently are, Derchin says.
The top three are not the only ones distracted by manag-
ing mergers. AirTran will be fully integrated into Southwest
Airlines next year, which will allow the combined carrier to
run at an optimal schedule for the rst time. And 2014 will
be big for Southwest as it adds long-haul routes out of Dallas.
But observers see great risks for the model that was once so
successful: Southwest is morphing into a legacy carrier, and
it is not obvious where they are going, says Pilarski. They
are kind of running out of steam, with higher costs, average
capacity growth and below-average trafc gains, he says.
Derchin says he is watching to see how aggressive low-fare
carriers will be next year, particularly after former Spirit Air-
lines chairman William Frankes investment company, Indigo
Partners, bought Frontier Airlines from Republic Airways.
Frontier will probably be remade after Spirits image, Mann
says, and on that basis it could make for an interesting busi-
ness combination.
Other acts to watch include JetBlues launch of premium
service on transcontinental ights as it aims to take a piece
of the higher-end leisure market, and whether privately held
Susanna Ray Seattle
Proof of
Concept
Remaining U.S. legacy carriers
must live up to their promises
Now that the last of the big three merg-
ers is nally done, the U.S. majors have to
make 2014 the year of implementation and
integration. American and US Airways,
only weeks into their new coexistence,
are at the beginning of a journey thatas
United Airlines and Continental Airlines
have foundcan be extremely difcult.
American continues to take delivery of new Airbus
A319s as it phases out older aircraft.
A
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A
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Virgin America goes public next year.
Financially, analysts expect more im-
provement in 2014 over what has been a
pretty solid performance recently. Most
say airline managements are prepared for
potential external shocks. If the economy
holds up reasonably well, it should be a fair-
ly good year, says Hamlin. The carriers
have got their costs down.
Derchin expects U.S. airline costs exclud-
ing fuel to rise 1-2%. He says he used a pretty
high fuel price of $3.35 a gallon for his 2014
estimatescarriers have been paying about
$3because of the risk of war breaking out
in a critical oil-producing area such as Iran.
Even so, he says, airlines have been success-
ful in recent years in ofsetting fuel prices
through pricing and ancillary fees, so I have
pretty high condenceassuming a slow-
growth economy, not a recessionthat they
would have the ability if they need to have
fares up by a little more than what you would
normally expect them to be.
Pricing competition will be more orderly
in 2014 after the mergers, says Hamlin, as
the big four have turned into the big three.
For the rst time in a very long time, U.S.
airlines may compete in earnest in terms
of service levels as well as price. For many
years, they could not afford to invest in
new seats, inight entertainment systems
or even aircraft. But that is now changing
as airlines are looking at upgrading their
cabins and, like American, are starting to
replace their aging domestic eets. Instead
of fare wars, we are seeing more service
warswho can provide the best interior
and in-ight service, Derchin says. That
is a new thing.
One key argument against the approval
of the American/US Airways merger has
been that in an oligopoly of three like-
minded participants, the carriers have
little incentive to challenge each other,
leading to cozy pricing arrangements. But
Pilarski argues that given Deltas existing
and Americans emerging strengths, the
market may not be as stable as it seems.
The airline to watch is United, which has
not been doing fantastically in nancials,
Pilarski says. There is always a danger
if you have one party that is weaker than
others, that they go into price-cutting and
starting price wars.
New equipment set to enter service is
mostly replacement for aging eets, so it
will have little impact on capacity, helping
keep yields steady while paring fuel and
maintenance costs. U.S. airlines will take
delivery of 378 new jets next year, an ad-
dition of 5.8% to the current active eet of
6,573 jets, according to Avitas.
Seating capacity will grow about 1-2%,
only slightly higher than recent years,
Derchin projects. He expects load factors
to stay around 83-84%. Delta may be the
outlier as it expands along the West Coast
and in Boston.
Protability will be aided by the ancil-
lary revenue that has become a signicant
source for U.S. carriers in recent years.
Innovative new fees arent expected to
come into play in 2014, but airlines will fur-
ther rene charges for services such as pre-
mium seats and checked baggage. Derchin
says new algorithms have given carriers
the ability to analyze each route, ight and
even seat to price them accordingly. His-
toric consumer data allows renements, he
says, so that on one day, for that rst row
in coach on the aisle, they can charge $50
now versus only $10 a year ago.
And those ancillary fees may be extend-
ed to some lower- and mid-tier members
of frequent-ier plans next year, reducing
the number of fliers who have been ex-
empt as carriers look to better monetize
their customers, says Henry Harteveldt, a
San Francisco-based analyst with Hudson
Crossing. Hes also predicting that carri-
ers will begin leveraging baggage inventory
much the same way they do with seats,
charging more for longer ights.
With the main aircraft-purchase deci-
sions made for now, big buys from U.S.
airlines probably arent on the horizon in
2014. The carriers may continue to repur-
pose domestically own planes onto inter-
national routes, where most of the money
is being made, Mann says.
Orderbooks at Boeing and Airbus are
full of purchases from Asian and Middle
Eastern carriers that are set to expand
tremendously, so U.S. airlines with inter-
national networks may sufer, Derchin says.
Mann expects a resolution or some kind of
re storm soon with Middle Eastern car-
riers access to North American airports,
amid strong opposition.
Emirates expanding footprint is not the
only competition to watch. Harteveldt is
eyeing European low-fare carriers burgeon-
ing service across the North Atlantic, which
he says could pose a serious competitive
threat, especially as fares creep up among
network airlines.
That intercontinental upheaval is being
magnied by strains emerging in the ma-
jor U.S. carriers relationships with global
alliances, Harteveldt says, pointing in par-
ticular to recent changes Delta and United
made to mileage award agreements that
have been unpopular with partner carri-
ers. There are clearly some cracks in what
we thought were very solid, established re-
lationships, he says. c
Mainline Fleet Size
American United Delta
US Airways
610
340
950
690
720
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics and carriers published reports
Passengers Carried in 2012
in millions
US Airways
86.3
54.2
140.5
92.4
116.4
Available Seat Miles in 2012
in billions
US Airways
152.5
74.2
226.7
213.2
194.8
The Big Three U.S. Airlines

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The European Commission is predicting GDP of the econ-
omy across the 17 countries using the euro will grow by only
a modest 1.1% in 2014, and 1.7% in 2015. The unemployment
rate will remain highat around 12.2% in 2014. Although the
gure will vary country by country, it is at its highest level
since the currency was launched in 1999.
European airlines are projected to post a 1.9% operating
margin and a combined $3.1 billion net prot in 2014, ac-
cording to the forecast of the International Air Transport
Association (IATA) released in September. Only one region,
Africa, is projected to record weaker results. On the bright
side, a 1.9% operating margin is an improvement on a 1.3%
EBIT margin that Europes airlines are expected to report in
2013, and the 0.7% margin realized in 2012, when European
airlines on average earned a mere 1 per passenger.
However, the European airline industry is not a homogenous
group and performance difers strongly by segment. Low-cost
carriers (LCCs) have been reporting healthy prot margins,
while Europes legacy carriers and regional airlines continue
to struggle. This diverging performance will continue in 2014
and reects the evolving structural change of the European
market. There will be pockets of strength, such as the north
and south Atlantic premium markets, says Jonathan Sullivan,
managing director for Europe and Middle East at Seabury
Consulting. But overall, at the end of 2014, conference at-
tendees will express disappointment with European nancial
results, while having admiration for a select few carriers in
Europe such as EasyJet, Ryanair, and Vueling.
Virtually all of the continents large network airlines and
the smaller ag carriers are in some form of restructuring,
and those European carriers that have bet their restructur-
ing plans on a robust economy and air travel demand in 2014
and 2015 will continue to fall short of plans, Sullivan warns.
Those few carriers that have already pushed for dramatic
structural re-sizes and gured out how to shrink to prot-
ability within the bounds of an out-of-court restructuring
will see a disproportionate upside in 2014.
Association of European Airlines (AEA) CEO Athar
Husain Khan acknowledges that Europes network carriers
will continue to face many challenges; yet he is upbeat and
expects AEA members to turn the corner in 2014. Financial
results already improved in 2013 over 2012, when member
airlines jointly posted an operating loss of 1.3 billion. He
says: We anticipate that 2013 results will be on the good side
of breakeven in spite of the high fuel prices, the slow recovery
of the European economy and the regulatory burdens. AEA
operators carried 313.9 million passengers in the rst ten
months of 2013, up 1.7% on the year-ago period, and registered
higher passenger growth of 2.4% during 2012.
A recent poll among members of the AEA showed that 40%
of respondents perceive European Union regulations such
as the Emissions Trading Scheme as the biggest threat to
their business, while 17% see LCCs as the
biggest threat and 31% point to the three
big Middle Eastern carriers, Emirates,
Etihad Airways and Qatar Airways.
The European Regions Airline Associa-
tion (ERA) is slightly more positive in its
outlook. We do see signs on the horizon
of the economic situation improving in
Europe. On the basis of this, we expect to
see an increase in demand and growth,
albeit a small growth in 2014, says ERA
Director General Simon McNamara. He
asserts that changes in the airline busi-
ness are still going to happen, with more
consolidation and more airlines facing dif-
cult times. The past year was incred-
ibly tough for Europes regional airlines,
McNamara notes, and we probably will
end 2013 with a 6% decline in passenger
numbers. ERA member airlines operate
about 15% of scheduled ights in Europe.
Europes leisure carriers have increas-
ingly moved to a hybrid business model
in past years, and this is likely to con-
Cathy Buyck Brussels
Uneven
Recovery
Europes airlines see a brighter
2014, despite many challenges
The financial performance of the
European airline industry has been
below the global average for several
years and 2014 will not be any difer-
ent. The eurozone economy seems to
have stopped shrinking, but Europe is
far from resolving its debt problems,
and the weak demand environment will
weigh on European carriers.
2013f
Global Airlines EBIT* Margins
-6
-5
-4
9%
8
7
6
5
4
3
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007
Source: Association of European Airlines research based on ICAO and IATA Financial Forecast,
updated September 2013
*EBIT = Earnings before interest and taxes
Europe Lags in Airline Protability
Asia-Pacifc
North America
Middle East
Latin America
Europe
Africa
Airlines of

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tinue in 2014, says Sylviane Lust, Director General of the
International Air Carrier Association (IACA). Competition
between low-cost carriers and leisure carriers/tour operators
is likely to remain erce, but IACA members keep further
improving the quality and comfort of the products they ofer
in order to address this, she says. As always, our members
will enforce strict cost controls. High seat load factors and
high aircraft utilization will remain at the core of their busi-
ness in the year ahead, Lust adds.
Low-cost carriers will push to gain more market share
on intra-European trafc in 2014 while also extending their
footprint outside the EU. Ryanair intends to make use of the
European Unions open skies agreement with Israel, which
comes into force in April, and it has also obtained trafc rights
to Russia. Norwegian Air Shuttle, which is the rst European
LCC to venture into the low-cost long-haul market, will ex-
pand its long-haul as it takes delivery of a further four Boe-
ing 787-8s in 2014. It launched ights from its Scandinavian
bases to the U.S. and
Bangkok in May, and
Norwegian will begin
three transatlantic
routes from London
Gatwick in July 2014.
CEO Bjorn Kjos indi-
cates that Barcelona
can be envisaged as a
hub for future long-
haul routes. The
Oslo-based LCC took
delivery of its third
787 on Nov. 27.
LCCs now offer
almost 40% of seat
capacity on intra-EU
routes; that is dou-
ble the level of ten
years ago. Three of
Europes ten largest
airlines by departing seat capacity are budget operators
(Ryanair, EasyJet and Norwegian), and Ryanair is Europes
largest airline in seat production, according to Innovata data.
Ryanair put 6.2 million departing seats, or 10% of European
seat capacity, into the market in November.
The last half of 2013 has seen increased convergence be-
tween Europes short-haul carriers. Ryanair, EasyJet, Nor-
wegian and Vueling are expanding their oferings to suit the
short-haul business traveler, while Lufthansa Group and Air
France-KLM are dening their non-hub products to more
closely match their lower-cost competitors, with an unbun-
dling of some of their services. The hybridization trend will
likely continue in 2014, reckons Sullivan. The LCCs will ex-
pand their distribution capabilities further and continue to
nd attractive short-haul opportunities.
Ryanair has started to channel its expansion to primary
airports and is establishing bases at Rome Fiumicino and
Brussels Zaventem Airport. It also applied for slots at Co-
penhagen Airport, and Chief Executive Michael OLeary
says that it is inevitable that Ryanair in the next ve years
will operate at all main airports in Europeexcept for the
mega-hubs such as London Heathrow, Frankfurt and Paris
Charles de Gaulle and Orly. Europes largest LCC, which
in September announced it would become more customer-
friendly, will introduce a exible business-like fare in the rst
quarter of 2014, and enter into agreements with GDS com-
panies and online travel agents, including Google, as part of
its strategy to target the business passenger and corporate
buyers. Currently, the Ryanair website and calling center are
the exclusive distribution channels for the LCCs services.
Europes majors are not only losing ground to LCCs on
short-haul routes, their market share and protability on
long-haul routes is also declining. AEA members grew long-
haul seat capacity 22% between 2007 and 2013, according to
Innovata data, whereas non-AEA members increased their
long-haul seating capacity in the period by 35%.
The Persian Gulf carriers have been adding routes and
frequencies at a rapid pace in recent years, and Emirates now
operates to almost 30 destinations in 16 member states in the
EU, plus two gateways in Switzerland. It deploys on average
16 daily ights to the U.K., including several with the Airbus
A380. Europe-Australasia trafc routed via the Middle East
is growing at roughly
20% per annum, an
Amadeus Air Traffic
Intelligence report
reveals.
Because Qatar,
Etihad and Emirates
will be growing capac-
ity greater than their
local demand increas-
es, we can expect that
the major flows that
they serve Europe/
Middle East to [the]
Indian subcontinent/
South east Asia/Aus-
traliawill remain
under signicant pric-
ing pressure in 2014,
Sullivan observes.
Alitalia will be the
big European story of the year, and its potential bankruptcy
could represent a much-needed step in Europes consolida-
tion. Europe is still a very fragmented market. It has some
450 airlines, compared with 190 in North America, accord-
ing to data from the Air Transport Action Group (ATAG).
The ve biggest airlines in Europe have a 45% market share,
whereas North Americas top ve (prior to the merger of
American Airlines and US Airways) accounted for nearly
70% of that market.
But Europes nations do not easily abandon their ag car-
riers, and the Italian government will step in to save Alitalia
once again. It has earmarked the state-owned postal service,
Poste Italiane, to contribute 75 million ($103 million) in fresh
funds. The exercise will have to be cleared by the EU com-
petition authorities, and their response to Alitalia could im-
pact ongoing reviews of similar casesincluding Air Baltic,
Estonian Air, Cyprus Air and LOTin which governments
provided public money to keep their ag airlines aoat.
Those airlines might have timing on their side. With elec-
tions for the European Parliament scheduled for May, and
a new College of EU Commissioners due to start in the fall,
European policy-makers might be more lenient in their as-
sessment of Alitaliaand other struggling carriersto se-
cure votes and safeguard jobs. c
22%
35%
Losing Ground
Long-Haul to/from Europe
% Growth in Available Seats, 2007-13
Source: Innovata, June 2013 compared to June 2007
High Volume, Low Revenue
Within Europe
P
a
s
s
e
n
g
e
r
s

b
y

c
a
b
i
n

c
l
a
s
s
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
2013
(est.)
2011 2009 2007
67
107
Premium
Economy
Source: Association of European Airlines
Structural Changes in the European Market
AEA Non-AEA
Index 2007 = 100

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Below are trends from ve diferent countries or market
segments that are likely to have a signicant impact in 2014.
In some markets the actions of individual airlines are ex-
pected to be of greatest interest, while in others common
threads emerge.

AUSTRALIA
The main points to watch in Australia in early 2014 will be
the actions Qantas takes in its latest campaign to boost its
agging nancial performance.
The airline has indicated some signicant changes are be-
ing considered, including some restructuring. The govern-
ments response to the carriers plight also will be important,
with Qantas pushing for regulatory relief that could raise
foreign investment caps.
Qantas has predicted that it will post a pre-tax loss of
A$300 million for the six months through Dec. 31, partly
driven by the increasingly damaging battle with Virgin Aus-
tralia in the domestic market.
The carriers response has been to announce an extensive
new cost-cutting campaign and a sweeping review of parts
of its business. The most notable cost-reduction measure is
the planned elimination of 1,000 jobs in 2014, and the airline
has indicated that some network rationalization may occur
potentially creating openings for its competitors.
Other options are also on the table, such as selling major
assets. No specics have been revealed, but this could theo-
retically include the frequent-yer program, or some of the
carriers interests in overseas joint ventures. It is difcult to
imagine Qantas parting with its Jetstar low-cost subsidiary,
as that is very much the jewel in the groups crown.
While it appears unlikely that the government has the
appetite to invest in Qantas or provide debt guarantees,
lawmakers have been more receptive to the idea of loosen-
ing foreign investment restrictions on Qantas. This would
potentially open the door for one of its strategic partners to
invest in the carrier.
Virgin Australia has already gone down this path in a ma-
jor way. Its partners Air New Zealand, Etihad Airways and
Singapore Airlines have all purchased substantial stakes
in Virgin Australia. It is not subject to the same ownership
restrictions that apply to Qantas, which are a legacy of the
governments sale of the carrier in 1992.
JAPAN
The major moves in the Japanese airline industry in 2014
could come from All Nippon Airways, as the carrier considers
a major widebody aircraft order and possibly further foreign
investments.
ANA has conrmed that a decision could be made soon
on a widebody order, although it has not yet revealed a time-
table for such a move. The airline is looking for an eventual
replacement for its large Boeing 777 eet, and is considering
Boeings 777X and the Airbus A350.
The carrier operates 55 777s, including -200s, -200ERs,
-300s and -300ERs. ANA wants to begin replacing its 777s
around 2020, and will focus rst on the 25 that are used on
international routes.
Japan Airlines made a similar decision in October 2013,
when it placed a large order for Airbus A350 aircraft to be
the long-term replacement for its Boeing 777s.
ANA likely will be seeking more ofshore ownership oppor-
tunities in 2014. The airline has stated that making strategic
investments in Asia is part of its corporate plan, and in June
2013 it established an investment management company in
Singapore for that purpose.
In 2013 ANA purchased a 49% stake in Myanmar-based
carrier Asian Wings Airways to help expand its international
footprint. It also bought the Miami-based Pan Am Interna-
tional Flight Academy, which it intends to use to help accom-
modate the growing demand for pilots in Asia.
So far, its investments have been relatively modest. It would
not be a surprise to see it hunt bigger game this year, and it
has reportedly been in talks with some other Asian airlines.
Further development in Japans new low-cost carrier
market will occur in 2014. Japan Airlines has established
an LCC joint venture with Jetstar, while ANA has a stake
in one joint venture and has recently established a wholly
owned LCC as well.
While nancial success has been more elusive than ex-
and Bradley Perrett Beijing
More Room
To Grow
Asian budget airlines are
still looking at new markets
The Asia-Pacific region is so vast
and diverse that it often dees deni-
tion as an airline industry bloc. How-
ever, some broad trends are noticeable
in many markets. For example, the
low-cost carrier sector is still in the
rapid development phase, meaning high
growth and increasing pressure for
legacy carriers. At the same time, some
of the major carriers are struggling
with increased competition and falling
demand in their home markets.
Qantass erce battle with rival Virgin Australia in the
domestic market is contributing to its nancial woes.

pected for these carriers, experience in other markets shows
that once the LCC genie is out of the bottle, it is unlikely to
go back in.
ASIAN LCCS
One of the most important trends in Asia is the continuing
push into overseas markets by the regions rapidly growing
low-cost carriers.
The major players such as AirAsia, Lion Air and Jetstar Air-
ways plan to ramp up the eets and networks of the joint-ven-
ture carriers they have established in strategic Asian markets.
China Airlines and Singaporean budget carrier Tigerair will
begin operations of Tigerair Taiwan at the end of 2014. Aside
from boosting their group-wide networks, such moves will also
help provide the capacity expansion needed to accommodate
the several hundred narrowbody orders placed by the LCCs.
LCCs are a serious threat to legacy carriers in Southeast
Asia, as the low-cost business model is particularly well
suited to large population bases with quickly growing or de-
veloping economies. For that reason, many of the legacies
have moved to set up their own LCCs to counter the threat.
Malaysia-based AirAsia has been one of the most active
in establishing ofshore joint ventures. It has spread its foot-
print by helping establishor buying stakes inLCCs in
Thailand, the Philippines, and Indonesia. It pulled out of an-
other joint venture in Japan in 2013, but indicated it intends
to return to this market. Regulatory approval is pending for
the newest franchise, AirAsia India.
Lion Air has not been as quick as AirAsia in creating for-
eign franchises, but it is catching up. It has already reached
into AirAsias home market by installing its Malindo Air joint
venture in Kuala Lumpur. In December it established Thai
Lion Air, based in Bangkok. It has started with just a few
Boeing 737-900ERs, but Lion has big plans for this market.
Jetstar, a subsidiary of the Qantas group, has ofshore joint
ventures in Singapore, Japan and Vietnam. It is attempting to
set up another in Hong Kong in partnership with China East-
ern Airlines and a local investment group, but the regulatory
approval process has been complicated by strong opposition
from incumbent carriers, including Cathay Pacic.

LCCS IN CHINA
Chinese aviation ofcials are nally encouraging the devel-
opment of budget airlines, but the question is how fast they
want them to evolve, if indeed they can evolve in the face of
resistance from the established state network carriers.
In 2014, probably the first signs to look out for will be
conversion of private airlines to the budget model. The Civil
Aviation Administration of China has ofcially urged them to
do so. One began the process before the edict went out in July.
West Air, based in Chongqing, has been chosen by its owner,
Hainan Airlines, for exploration of the LCC model. Outside
of mainland China, another unit, Hong Kong Express, has
also been converted.
Before the end of 2014, Hainan Airlines should have some
idea of whether and how it can succeed with budget airlines.
If it can, it presumably will shift focus to such subsidiaries
as Beijing Capital Airlines and Kunming-based Lucky Air.
Tianjin Airlines could not be converted directly into a budget
carrier, since it has plans for long-haul operations But the
group could conceivably require it to evolve into something
like Jetstar, which has long-haul widebody services, including
a modest business class.
The issue is not just whether Hainan Airlines and other
private airlines can execute budget operations well. The ser-
vices also will need access to routes, often to the detriment
of the main state-controlled carriers.
The state carriers also have been told to look at budget op-
erations, presumably by setting up no-frills subsidiaries. As
government-controlled entities, they are under special pres-
sure to actthe national leadership wants further liberaliza-
tion of the economy. But they are not nimble organizations, and
they answer to a majority shareholder, a state-assets commis-
sion that looks for prots rather than the industrys evolution.

DEMAND IN CHINA
Chinese airlines found themselves with too much capacity in
2013, and had weak operating results. Business travel was par-
ticularly afected. Altogether, it has looked like a simple case of
the airlines and their government supervisors sufering from
an unexpectedly weak economy, which can happen anywhere.
But something else is going on. Ofcials, including those
working for the countrys enormous state companies, are
traveling less.
The new administration of President Xi Jinping is trying
to crack down on corruption andvirtually the same thing
ofcials granting lavish perquisites to themselves and each
other. An ever-popular perk is the holiday masquerading as
an ofcial trip. Anecdotally, much less of this is happening,
but of course there are no statistics for corruption, and so it is
impossible to tell how much money is staying in government
bank accounts instead of going to the airlines (and top-notch
hotels, opulent restaurants, and so on).
Whatever the magnitude, the efect of reduced corrupt
spending is increased because the industry is used to rapid
growth. In efect, the rotten portion of revenue can normally
be expected to rise nicely every year, as ofcials get more
money to spend. Indeed, the general impression in China has
been that corruption has tended to get worse, so the diversion
of public funds to unwarranted travel has probably grown
faster than legitimate business in recent years.
Even justiable or almost-justiable travel by the state and
its enterprises in 2013 likely has been signicantly restrained,
with ofces across the country striving to look as though they
are paying attention to the top leadership.
At some point this change in ofcial behavior should sta-
bilize, maybe in 2014, if it has not already done so. It could
also reverse. Earlier presidents and their prime ministers
have come to power unleashing a crackdown on corruption
and misuse of public funds. But after a year or so, the gravy
train has been back on the rails. c
A decline in business travelincluding by government
ofcialshas hit the Chinese airlines prots this year.
K
E
I
T
H

G
A
S
K
E
L
L

Regaining Heights
2014 could be a make-or-break year
for the Indian aviation industry
With global airlines and investors with
deep pockets coming together, Indias ail-
ing aviation sector could nally feel some
wind beneath its wings from the start
of operations by Etihad, AirAsia and
Singapore Airlines (SIA), along with
their Indian partners in 2014.
While Tata-SIA will launch a full-
service airline, Malaysias AirAsia will
start a low-cost carrier, again with the
support of Tata.
Since both SIA and AirAsia have
strong international partners in South-
east Asia, India can expect a greater out-
bound emphasis in Asean countries who
are already tourist-friendly. And with
the Jet-Etihad deal already sealed, we
will soon be able to see strong domestic-
international tie-ups both east and west
of India, says Sanat Kaul, chairman at
the International Foundation for Avia-
tion, Aerospace & Development.
The Jet Airways-Etihad deal will
bring together one of the largest airlines
in India with a well-capitalized Persian
Gulf carrier with global ambitions. Abu
Dhabi-based Etihad will inject $600 mil-
lion in equity into the Indian private
carrier and help the debt-ridden airline
strengthen its balance sheet and focus
on eet expansion.
This will be a game-changer for In-
dian aviation, the roots of which lie in
the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
reforms of September 2012, says Am-
ber Dubey, partner and head of Aero-
space and Defense services at global
consultancy KPMG.
In September 2012 the Indian Gov-
ernment decided to allow international
airlines to invest in Indian carriers. Its
goal was to secure capital for existing
domestic airlines which were grap-
pling with debt. However, in March
2013 the Foreign Investment Promo-
tion Board (FIPB) ruled that foreign
airline investment is not limited to ex-
isting carriers.
This has resulted in AirAsia receiv-
ing approval to make a 49% investment
in a joint venture airlineAirAsia In-
diawith the Tata Group and Teles-
tra Trading. The airline is expected to
launch in the rst half of 2014.
The return of Tata Group to the avi-
ation sector may boost the sagging im-
age of the Indian aviation market, pav-
ing the way for new investments. The
Tatas have a long association with civil
aviation in India. In 1932, J.R.D. Tata
started Tata Airlines, later renamed
Air India in 1946, and subsequently
nationalized in 1953. The development
[SIAs alliance with Tata] afrms In-
dias reputation as a lucrative aviation
market in the long run. We expect two
more FDI deals with existing airlines. .
. These strategic partnerships will help
airlines such as GoAir and SpiceJet,
currently in talks with foreign carri-
ers, to have more stable cash ows. All
this will bring in global best practices,
greater competition, better choices for
passengers and lower fares, Dubey
says.
Indian carriers are likely to see an
infusion of $1.3 billion by 2015, and ma-
jor international carriers, such as Qa-
tar Airways and Turkish Airlines are
showing interest in investing in Indian
airlines, analysts note.
The year 2014 may also see the de-
bate over privatizing the national carri-
er Air India gathering steam. Civil Avia-
tion Minister Ajit Singh said recently
he was in favor of privatizing the ag
carrier, and the government of the day
will have to look at this [issue].
Though his statement caused con-
troversy, the minister reiterated his
position, saying, after the package of
320 billion rupees ($5 billion) equity in-
fusion, the government will not give any
more money to Air India. It will have to
fend for itself . . . I am rmly of the view
that government should not be in the
service sector like hotels.
Privatization of Air India has been a
long-pending correction that successive
governments have shied away from, due
to fears of political and union backlash.
We expect that the new govern-
ment which takes over in June 2014
may seriously consider privatizing
Air India, Dubey hopes. There is
public pressure on the government
not to spend the $5 billion bailout
package on Air India and instead use
it to reduce the large taxes on Aviation
Turbine Fuel and Maintenance Repair
and Overhaul and to support growth of
no-frills airports in Indias interiors.
Though Air India signicantly im-
proved its operational and financial
performance during the previous
year, its business plan is still under at-
tack. The carrier still sufers from low
productivity, a huge interest burden,
a bloated workforce, insufficient re-
capitalization and regular government
intervention. If the carrier is to have
any chance of success, it must be radi-
cally restructured both nancially and
operationally. This will require a level
of political will to take tough decisions,
a feature that has been absent to date.
If decisive action is postponedas we
expectIndian taxpayers will bear the
cost, the CAPA consultancy argues.
Indias airlines could seea combined
loss of about $1.6 billion in the nancial
year ended March 31, 2013, with most of
this accounted for by Air India and the
now-defunct Kingsher Airlines.
Analysts expect domestic trafc in
the 12 months ending March 2014 to
grow by around 5-7% over the previ-
ous year, and international trafc by
around 9-11%. A civil aviation ministry
report expects 12% average annual
growth in domestic air trafc between
2012 and 2017. c
If turbulence and uncertainty best describe the last
few years for the Indian commercial aviation sector,
there are signs of a turnaround ahead.
Go Air is one of several Indian
airlines looking for foreign equity
partners.
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Qatar Airways in particular is likely to be able to make
another quantum leap in its rapid development: Hamad In-
ternational Airport in Doha is expected to nally open after a
series of long delays. There is enormous pressure for the facil-
ity to come online, as the home carrier plans to take delivery
of its rst Airbus A380 at the end of the rst quarter. That
type of aircraft can hardly be handled at the existing Doha
International Airport. Qatar will not only get its rst A380, it
is also scheduled to receive its rst A350-900 sometime in the
fall, following certication of the aircraft at the end of August
or early September.
But the Qatar/Doha situation also clearly demonstrates one
of the main factors threatening further Persian Gulf carrier
growthinfrastructure constraints, in spite of massive gov-
ernment support. Hamad International should have opened
years ago, but a series of mishaps caused massive delays. One
of the major issues was the late completion of lounges in the
terminal. When everything looked like it would be nished,
authorities launched an in-debth investigation into the re
protection systems. That issue had arisen in Qatar following
a devastating kindergarten re in early 2012. The airport audit
led to a seemingly never-ending list of change requirements
that still has not been fully dealt with.
Qatar Airways is continuing its expansion at the old Doha
airport, which does not have air bridges, requiring passen-
gers to be bussed across the eld for arrivals, departures and
connections. Trafc has long outgrown the facilitys design
capacity and it would certainly not be able to cope with the
passengerloads associated with A380 operations.
Such problems will go away at the new airport. It will not
only address the problem of how to accommodate large wide-
bodies; passenger convenience will also be much improved,
since most aircraft can be parked directly at air bridges.
2014 will also be a crucial year for Emirates, which has just
committed to a large expansion of its A380 eet at the recent
Dubai Airshow. The airline increased its orderbook for the
type from 90 to 140. But only half of the additional aircraft can
be handled at Dubai International Airport, even taking into
account all the current and possible future plans for expan-
sion. The order therefore includes an implicit commitment for
Emirates to move to a new airport sooner rather than later.
Operator Dubai Airports is currently working on the latest
revision of its strategic plan. Al-Makhtoum International has
been operating as a cargo airport for some time and the rst
passenger teminal was opened in October. Next year, when
one of the two runways at Dubai International is resurfaced,
more airlines will move to Al-Makhtoum, at least temporarily.
But Emirates and Dubai Airports face a strategic dilemma.
Given the amount of investment in the current airport and
that it is ongoing, there is an economic incentive to stay at
Dubai International for as long as possible.
However, the longer the move to Al-Makhtoum is delayed,
the bigger the problems and needed upfront investment there
will be. Emirates is already the biggest international airline
in the world and indications are that it will continue to grow
at its usual 15-20% annual rate for the forseeable future. The
latest A380 order has claried the situation, to the extent
that delivery schedules can be rm ten years in advance.
The amount of upfront public investment needed for a new
six-runway mega-hub for 160-180 million annual passengers
clearly demonstrates the commitment of Dubais ruling Al-
Makhtoum family to continued investment in the aviation
sector. For now, the only factor that could slow the growth
in the region could be the challenge of logistics and space to
operate those kinds of massive hubs.
Etihads Abu Dhabi base is also being expanded and CEO
James Hogan is adamant that the planned new mideld termi-
nalthe heart of the new airportwill be ready in time, at the
end of 2015. For the airport to be able to stick to its commitment,
a lot of the construction work has to be done in 2014. In Etihads
case, the challenges go beyond how to deal with its own expan-
sion; they include building its system of subsidiaries and inte-
grating the new European regional operation based on Swiss
carrier Darwin Airlines. While the move is supposed to improve
feed for long-haul services from Europe, the more signicant
aspect of the deal is that the Etihad brand will be introduced
for intra-European ying for the rst time. c
Jens Flottau Frankfurt
Building for
the Future
Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha are
working on airport expansion
If the rise of the Persian Gulf
carriers has been frightening so far for
the rest of the industry, competitors
should not even look at what is going to
happen in 2014. The three big Middle
Eastern airlines will have access to
signicantly improved infrastructure as
they continue to grow their eets.
Emirates, already the worlds largest Boeing 777
operator, recently ordered 150 777Xs.
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Jens Flottau Cancun, Mexico, and Frankfurt
Delivering
on Promises
Latin American airlines in line
for a much more protable 2014
Like other regions, Latin America has recently seen the
emergence of a few big players created by mergers. Avianca
joined forces with Grupo Taca. Those two have been followed
by LAN Airlines and TAM Brazil, which now form the new La-
tam Airlines Group, with subsidiaries in almost every country
in South America. Aeromexico and Copa Airlines are other
strong players, along with Brazilian low-cost carrier Gol.
While the optimism is justied overall, some expectations
have not been met, and that gives reason for some caution.
Overall GDP growth in the region has been slower than econ-
omists anticipated, Deutsche Bank airline analyst Michael
Linenberg warns. According to the forecasts, 2012 should
have seen 3.2% growth, but it was actually only 2.9%. And
2013 GDP growth was predicted to reach 3.9% but now seems
unlikely to exceed 2.7%. Still, Linenberg expects the regions
airlines to post solid returns in 2013, achieving a combined
prot of around $600 million. In 2014, the industry is pro-
jected to improve its nancial performance further and have
prots of around $1.1 billion.
Given strong trade links with China, Latin America is de-
pendent on growth there for its own economic development.
China has also experienced a slowdown recently, but Linen-
berg predicts that economic activity there will pick up when
the efects of the recently announced reform program begin
to be felt, which will have a ripple efect on trade partners.
The Latin American and Caribbean Air Transport Associa-
tion (ALTA) expects air trafc to grow in the region by an av-
erage of 6.9% annually over the next 10 years, compared with
a global average of around 5%. That would put Latin America
on about the same trafc growth trajectory as China. There
are also more opportunities for local carriers to gain market
share. According to Airbuss gures, Latin American airlines
currently carry only 19% of the long-haul trafc into and out
of their region. Airbus still expects that intra-regional trafc
within Latin America will grow to become the largest single
segment of the market. The expected increase of regional and
domestic air travel likely will be driven by the fact that 59%
of the 20 largest cities in Latin America are still connected
to each other with less than one ight per day, as well as by
economic growth and rising personal incomes.
Along with airlines in the Asia-Pacic region, Latin Ameri-
can carriers have been the most protable as recently as
2009, but that has since changed for the worse, mainly as
a result of the downturn in the Brazilian domestic market.
The air transport sector in the region has also taken a dis-
proportionate hit because of its strong exposure to cargo,
which is particularly important for LAN. On the other hand,
freight volumes have now reached a 25-month high, one of
the economic indicators that Linenberg considers to be an
encouraging sign for a recovery by Latin American airlines.
In Brazil the latest quarterly results of both Gol and Latam,
by far the largest operators, showed very good improvements.
I believe we are at an inection point, Linenberg argues.
LAN and TAM have made faster progress in the integra-
tion of the Latam Airlines group than anticipated, TAM
President Marco Antonio Bologna believes. We have done
more than imagined in the short time, he says. LAN and
TAM combined to form Latam in mid-2012.
Bologna admits that the integration is a complex process
and that both sides are still learning cultural topics, but he
leaves little doubt that it was a necessary merger. Latam re-
ported much-improved results for the third quarter of 2013 in
what analysts view as a clear indication that the worst is over
in terms of integration; 2014 could prove to be a much better
year. I have all the condence that Latam will move through
the merger and has a lot of upside potential, Linenberg says.
Latam CEO Enrique Cueto says the most important as-
pect is to create a team that believes in the process and that
transfers that attitude downwards in the organization. He
concedes that there are people that dont like change. But
he also knows what must happen: they will have to leave the
company. Aligning service levels is also a difcult part of the
merger, Cueto believes. In his opinion, it will take a long time
to harmonize that within the group, since brands and airline
operations will remain separate. c
Latin America has been viewed by
most as one of the most promising air-
line markets. Impressive growth and
huge steps in quality and safety have
made the continent the turnaround
story in the industry. And 2014 appears
set to become a year of further
improvement.
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TAM operates its 777-300ERs on many long-haul services
from its Sao Paulo hub to U.S. cities such as Miami.

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Maxim Pyadushkin Moscow
Historic Achievement
Russian air transport industry will exceed Soviet-
era passenger totals for the rst time in 2014
After the collapse of the Soviet Union
in 1991, trafc fell from 91 million pas-
sengers to only around 20 million a few
years later. It has since recovered, lately
at a much accelerated pace. Russia re-
mains a strongly regulated market in
many aspects; even so, the market will
see another attempt to establish the
low-cost carrier concept soon. If suc-
cessful this time, Russian airlines could
develop an even broader customer base.
Transport Minister Maxim Sokolov
expected domestic airlines alone to car-
ry 83 million passengers in 2013. The
total number of passengersincluding
those carried by foreign airlinescould
exceed 100 million for 2013. Sokolov as-
serts this is the result of government
decisions in 2007 that fostered competi-
tion in the local market, liberalization of
domestic services and a separation of
Soviet-style companies that had com-
bined airport and airline businesses.
But the rapid growth in trafc con-
ceals serious problems, such as the
widening gap between international
and domestic trafc. The share of in-
ternational trafc grew to 63% in 2013,
compared to 49% in 2003, and is likely
to continue to dominate as more direct
international ights are launched from
the Russian regions. According to the
Russian Association of Air Transport
Operators, 75% of all domestic passen-
gers take of or land in Moscow; the top
15 carriers control 86% of the market.
To foster a more balanced air traf-
fic structure, the government subsi-
dizes regional routes in the Far East,
Siberia, Ural, Volga and Kaliningrad
regions. The transport ministry has
proposed expanding such subsidies
to the entire country in 2014. Another
government program subsidizes leas-
ing of aircraft for regional and local
routesjets up to 55 seats and turbo-
props up to 72 seats.
Although Russia is not yet ready for
an open skies agreement with the Eu-
ropean Union, Russian authorities say
they are working to liberalize existing
bilateral air transport agreements.
According to the transport minister,
some progress was achieved for routes
from Russia to Cyprus, Greece, France
and Italy. But the greatest success was
achieved in negotiations with some CIS
countries like Ukraine, Moldova and
Belarus as well as South Korea, where
nearly all restrictions were lifted.
Consolidation of local carriers is
also supported by the government,
which believes smaller airlines are
unable to provide the necessary levels
of safety and nancial stability. Our
task is to promote the competition and
help air carriers become better service
providers in the process. We may even
have to consolidate them where neces-
sary, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry
Medvedev says. According to Russias
federal air transport agency, the share
of the top 5 carriersAeroot, Trans-
aero, UTair, S7 Airlines and Rossiya is
growing steadily, as they carried 62.8%
of passengers in the rst 10 month of
the year compared to 62.5% a year ago.
In January-October Aeroot alone
carried 17.6 million passengers (up 18%
over the same period of 2012), but that
also includes several smaller govern-
ment-owned carriers: St. Petersburg-
based Rossiya, Donavia, Orenair, Vlad-
ivostok Air and SAT Airlines. Within
the group, Vladivostok Air and SAT
Airlines have merged into Aurora Air-
lines, which began regional service in
Russias Far East region in November.
Aeroot plans to strike another blow
at its domestic competitors with the
launch of low-cost subsidiary Dobrolet
in spring 2014. It will initially serve the
European part of Russia; foreign desti-
nations are to be added in 2016. Unlike
previous failed attempts, Dobrolets
launch is backed by the government,
which has promised to create a favor-
able climate, easing the restrictions on
non-refundable tickets, onboard meals
and luggage, and foreign pilots.
Transaero is currently the fastest-
growing of Russias top five airlines,
with trafc up 22% for January-October.
However, the airline, traditionally fo-
cused on long-haul international routes
and operating the largest widebody
eet in Russia, is shifting its priorities.
For the next ve years it will focus on
improving its financial performance
rather than continuing rapid growth.
Transaero also concluded a strate-
gic partnership with UTair that slowed
down its expansion. The two carri-
ers are building up their cooperation
around Moscow Vnukovo Airport, try-
ing to combine Utairs vast domestic
network with Transaeros internation-
al routes; 2014 will be a key year in the
network integration process.
All major carriers are renewing
their eets and phasing out aging Rus-
sian and Western types. According to
the Association of Air Transport Op-
erators, since the lifting of import du-
ties in 2010, Russian carriers have im-
ported about 250 foreign aircraft. The
total size of the Western commercial
fleet in Russia exceeds 770 aircraft,
which carry about 95% of total traf-
fic. The next wave of fleet renewal,
expected in 2014-2016, is now at risk,
as it is not clear whether the duties
exemption will be prolonged beyond
Dec. 31, 2013. c
In an industry used to constant growthwith a few
hiccups here and thereRussia will deliver the conclu-
sion of an astonishing story in 2014: 24 years after its
previous trafc peak in 1990, the Russian air transport
industry is nally reaching similar trafc levels.
Transaero, with a eet of Boeing
747s and 777s, is the largest wide-
body operator in Russia.
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Tom Pleasant London
Going Nowhere
The global air cargo industry is in
deep trouble and will need years to
recover, if it can at all
Consumers may be buying the latest
electronic goods, but they are certainly
not spending as much as they were 10
years ago. That means the air cargo
industry, which is being swamped with
belly capacity, is being left with a lot of
empty space and nothing to ll it.
Talk to air cargo experts and they will be as likely to dis-
cuss the demand for iPhones as they are about aircraft ying
around. That is because the industry was traditionally a key
indicator of how healthy global trade was, always showing a
peak in demand during the weeks leading up to Christmas.
That trend took a blow in 2007-08 with the global nancial
crisis, as shippers began to use slower but cheaper alterna-
tives, such as sea, rail and truck. Ericsson, for example, has
reduced its logistics spend on air from 80% of its total 10 years
ago to 20%, and does not intend to increase it again.
Ram Menen is the ex-head of cargo at Emirates and led the
airline to its current prominence in the air freight market.
Although there is cautious optimism, I am not convinced
about the sustainability of that growth, he says. In my view,
full recovery is still two to three years away.
He cites the high cost of oilwhich is increasing the cost
of livingas a prime reason why the worlds economy is still
struggling. This also puts the air cargo industry under pres-
sure from the rising cost of fuel.
Peoples current optimism is born of desperation, agrees
Stan Wraight, managing partner of the Hong Kong-based
consulting rm Strategic Aviation Solutions International
and a long-standing expert in the industry. In the last ve
or six weeks there has denitely been an uptick in the busi-
ness, and I expect that to continue for the next two or three
weeks, but Im really worried what will happen in January.
Wraight says one of the main reasons for concern is the sur-
plus capacity in the market compared with the continuing lack
of demand. This has led cargo carriers, such as Air France and
AirBridgeCargo, to ground their freighters as quickly as they
can. Even in Asia, which is seeing better growth than Europe,
China Southern has just parked two 747s, China Airlines is also
talking about parking up to eight MD-11Fs, and Air China is
returning what freighters it can to Boeing.
But even this is not making a dent on capacity, which is rap-
idly growing as new-generation aircraft come into operation
with their large bellies. The Boeing 777-300ER, for example,
has a capacity of 7,640 cu. ft., versus the 747-400ER, which
has a maximum of 5,599 cu. ft. With almost 1,150 777s alone
already delivered, that spells a glut of unwanted space to ll.
Even if there was a six percent increase in demand, it still
wouldnt use all the surplus capacity thats out there and all
the rest that will be coming on board in the coming years,
says Wraight. In 2014 and beyond, the issue isnt just us fac-
ing a lack of demand. While trafc may returnand I see us
probably four years away from thatwere never again going
to see the yields we need to make this business protable.
Appetite for freighters in most airline boardrooms is at
an all-time low, says Menen. Pure freighter operators will
continue to struggle.
Clearly, something has to change for the air cargo industry
to recover, but what?
The question is, Wraight continues, can cargo create new
markets like passenger [airlines] did? The likes of Ryanair,
EasyJet and Southwest didnt poach passengers from their
competitors. They took people who had never own before and
put them on their ights by making the price right and making
it easy for them to do so, all while making a prot. The only
way to solve the cargo problem is to create new trafc ows
in the same way the passenger people did.
That means, he suggests, learning from travel agents, who
had to evolve to survive given competition from the Internet.
The process of shipping by air has to be simple, cheap and
transparent, says Wraight. Thats the only way to take the
cargo that has started going by sea and put it back in the air.
One solution might be to take advantage of all of that ex-
cess capacity instead of trying to cut it.
The freighters that are being parked are very good air-
planes, Wraight notes, and being leased at rates that are
25% what they were four years ago. You can pick up a 747-
400ERF now for below $300,000 a month. As more really
good airplanes like that come onto the market, it will present
an interesting opportunity for someone to pick them up at
a very attractive cost and start a low-cost cargo airline. c
Better orientation is needed for the global air cargo
market and the Boeing Dreamlifter, which landed at the
wrong airport Nov. 21.
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Automatic dependent surveillance-broadcast (ADS-B)
systems are being installed and used all over the world. It
seems it is no longer a question of if, but when, it will replace
radar as the main source of surveillance for ATM purposes.
Despite ADS-Bs extensive footprint, a handful of nations
stand out due to the ambitious scope of their programs.
Among them is the U.S., which has al-
most nished installing a vast network
that will cover its entire airspace. Ice-
land, meanwhile, is nally ready to begin
using an ADS-B system that will span
the north Atlantic. Australia has a na-
tionwide ADS-B network in place and
this month implemented the rst wide-
spread mandate for its use. Canada was
another early adopter, and is now taking
a lead role in the next major evolution of
the technology.
The U.S. is continuing to make good
progress with the deployment of its
ADS-B network, despite the federal bud-
get battles that have stalled other impor-
tant initiatives. Contractor Exelisfor-
merly a part of ITTsays the installation
remains on schedule and unafected by
budget issues.
An important industry/government
advisory panel has stressed that ADS-B
Outwhich primarily benets control-
lers rather than pilotsshould remain a
priority even if the FAAs budget is cut
further.
By the end of November, 605 of the
657 required ground stations were op-
erational, according to data supplied
by Exelis. Surveillance data is being
supplied to 176 of the 210 required
FAA facilities. When completed, it
will be the largest ADS-B network by a significant margin.
Exelis expected installation to be complete in the lower
48 states before Christmas, with the exception of two or
three straggler sites. The 33 sites in the rst stage of the
Alaskan deployment have been completed, and eight more
will be added next summer. Sites in Hawaii and the island
territories are scheduled to be nished by early-to-mid 2014,
the company says.
The FAA says it is on track to complete full deployment by
2014. However, it admits it had previously targeted an earlier
nish. We initially expected the ground station network to
be deployed in 2013, but encountered challenges in land ac-
quisition, accessing difcult locations in mountainous areas
and oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico, and seasonal limita-
tions due to severe weather in Alaska, an agency spokesman
says. We expect the ground stations in those locations to be
deployed by the spring.
In addition to Exeliss work on the infrastructure side, the
FAA must incorporate the surveillance feed into its ATM
systems at each facility so controllers can use it to separate
trafc. And in this part of the programwhich falls outside
the Exelis contractit is likely that sequestration and the
government shutdown have caused timetable delays.
According to a federal website that monitors major gov-
ernment IT projects, as of August the FAA had achieved
initial operating capability for ADS-B trafc separation at 42
terminal facilities and eight en-route centers. The federal IT
website notes that the ADS-B program ofce is continuing
to evaluate the full impacts of sequestration and will replan
its activities accordingly.
In Iceland, work has also been continuing on a new ADS-B
network that will provide a surveillance
corridor between European and North
American airspace. The rst parts of
this network will be ready for opera-
tional use in 2014, air navigation service
provider Isavia tells Aviation Week.
ADS-B stations have been installed
in Iceland by Isavia, and Denmarks
Naviair is responsible for installing sta-
tions in the Faroe Islands and in several
locations in Greenland. Isavia will use
surveillance data from all these sites
which have overlapping coverageto
provide high-altitude ATM services
across the network.
The Iceland deployment is furthest
ahead. All the ground stations have been
completed, and Isavia is only awaiting
technical approval from the Icelandic
Civil Aviation Administration. In addi-
tion, Isavia has recently installed a new
Comsoft surveillance tracker that will
handle both ADS-B and radar data. Site
acceptance testing has been conducted,
and it is expected to be operational in
early 2014.
The Greenland and Faroe Islands
ground stations have also been in-
ADS-B
Advances
Milestones beckon as major
programs expand global coverage
The potential for satellite-based
surveillance to transform air trafc
management has been recognized for
years. Now the countries leading the
way with this technology are preparing
to show how its promise can be realized
in some of the most important airspace
on the planet.
ADS-B ground receivers can be
co-located with communications
towers, such as this one in Iceland.
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Iain Blackhall
T: +44 (0)20 7152 4495
iain.blackhall@penton.com
Bill Freeman
1 - 301-755-0166
bill.freeman@penton.com
For subscriptions: bev.walter@penton.com
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stalled, with site acceptance testing scheduled to occur at
the end of December. Current plans assume technical ap-
proval from Danish regulators in January, an Isavia spokes-
man says.
While Isavia does plan to introduce ADS-B operationally
in 2014, it will initially be used to diferent extents in diferent
sectors, says the spokesman. It will rst be used in Icelands
airspace, and then over the Faroe Islands. ADS-B will be an
improvement over existing radar coverage in both areas. Fi-
nally, it will be used to provide surveillance coverage where
none exists over much of Greenland. Nav Canada already
has ADS-B stations on the southern tip of Greenland, which
it uses to extend its own ADS-B network.
Although most transatlantic airline trafc ies to the south
of Isavias planned transatlantic ADS-B corridor, it will still
provide surveillance coverage for some important traffic
flows. In addition to the obvi-
ous safety benets of improved
oceanic surveillance, it will also
extend the areas where control-
lers can ofer benets such as re-
duced separation and more fre-
quent altitude change approvals.
Airservices Australia is con-
sidered one of the true pioneers
of ADS-B. It has installed a na-
tionwide network of more than
60 ground stations that provides
seamless coverage of all of its
domestic high-altitude airspace,
and some ofshore airspace. It is
already using this network to pro-
vide ATM services for equipped
aircraft, and on Dec. 12 it took an-
other major step by introducing a
mandate requiring aircraft to be
equipped for ADS-B when ying
above ight level 290.
This mandate represents the rst time ADS-B has been
required over such a large nationwide network. In this regard
Australia is well ahead of the U.S., which is scheduled to intro-
duce an ADS-B mandate in 2020.
With the mandate in place, Airservices controllers can
maximize the operational benets of ADS-B since more air-
craft will be equipped. However, Australias Civil Aviation
Safety Authority (CASA) has been forced to allow a tem-
porary exemption from the mandate, due to the failure of
certain aircraft types to meet the deadline.
If operators apply for this exemption, non-equipped air-
craft will be able to y above FL290 as long as they remain in
radar airspace. Radar coverage in Australia predominantly
extends in a J-shaped zone down the east and south-east
coasts, where most of the major cities are located.
Airlines have largely completed their retrots. Accord-
ing to Airservices data, 95% of the airline eet that operates
above FL290 was ADS-B equipped by Dec. 12. Qantas, for
example, had only three of its older Boeing 737s that did not
meet the deadline. These are scheduled to be retired soon,
and until then Qantas will operate them in radar airspace
under the exemption.
The main problem is the business jet eet, which had an
equipage rate of only around 40% as of Dec. 12. In most cases
this is not the operators fault, as manufacturers have not yet
made retrot procedures available for some aircraft types.
For example, only 30% of Australias large eet of Cessna
business jets meets the ADS-B standard. The equipage rate
is about half for Bombardier business jets, and none of the
seven Embraer aircraft are retrotted yet.
The exemption will apply for two years, to give manufac-
turers the chance to catch up. During this time the exemp-
tion will not cause too much disruption, as the non-equipped
aircraft will be conned to airspace that already has radar
coverage at high altitude. The business jets are far outnum-
bered by the airline eet, and are operated lessso 94% of
all operations above FL290 will comply with the mandate.
Airservices is now looking ahead to the next phases of its
ADS-B program. From February 2014, all newly certied IFR
aircraft must be ADS-B capable. By February 2016, all IFR
operations within 500 nm. of Perth must be equipped. The nal
mandate calls for all aircraft op-
erating under IFR in any airspace
to be equipped by February 2017.
The 2016-2017 deadlines will
extend the ADS-B requirement
to about 2,000 more aircraft,
Airservices estimates. Another
15 ground stations are sched-
uled to be deployed over the next
three years to improve coverage
at lower levels.
Another early leader in ADS-B
deployment is Nav Canada. The
air navigation service provider has
already established an extensive
network, and a growing equipage
rate is increasing the benets to
controllers and airlines.
The proportion of ights han-
dled by Nav Canada that have
ADS-B capability has risen to
85%. ADS-B equipage rates on
aircraft operating in Canadian airspace have been on the
upward swing due to eet renewal and equipage mandates
elsewhere, Nav Canada says.
Between 2009 and 2012, Nav Canada installed ADS-B
ground stations that provide coverage of four million square
kilometers of airspace. First it added coverage over Hudson
Bay, an area which includes major international trafc ows.
Then it deployed a network over its eastern Arctic region,
and in March 2012 Nav Canada extended its Atlantic oceanic
coverage with four stations in Southern Greenland.
Thanks to more-efcient ight proles, ADS-B is provid-
ing airlines with fuel cost savings that are many multiples
larger than Nav Canadas investment of less than C$25 million
($23.5 million), says the organizations CEO John Crichton.
Now Nav Canada is looking to the next phase of this tech-
nology through a partnership with Iridium Communications.
Their Aireon joint venture will use a network of satellites
instead of ground stations, making it ideal for providing
coverage in oceanic airspace. The system is expected to be
operational in 2018.
Nav Canada is also contracted as the rst customer of
the joint venture, and it intends to use it to improve ATM
services over the busy transatlantic routes. In this airspace
alone, Nav Canada estimates Aireon could save airlines C$125
million a year through reduced fuel burn. c
A close-up view of two ADS-B antennas on an
Airservices Australia communications tower.
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The tale of two markets continues,
with large business jets still selling
For the manufacturers of larg-
er business jets, which have come
through the recession relatively un-
scathed, the new aircraft will keep
the orders owing. For the makers of
lighter jets, which have been hit hard
by the downturn, there will be a bump
up from the backlog, but they will be
looking for a solid recovery before that
reserve of orders is exhausted.
Engine and equipment supplier Hon-
eywell, among the industrys most reli-
able prognosticators, believes there has
been a permanent reset in the business-
aviation market, leading to a prefer-
ence for larger aircraft at the expense
of small and medium-sized jets, mainly
due to nancing issues. Normally buy-
ers pay cash for larger jets, while tra-
ditional asset-based credit is harder to
nd for smaller aircraft.
An example is Bombardier, which
certicated the upgraded Learjet 75 in
November and hoped to y the all-new
Learjet 85 by year-end, for delivery late
in 2014. The company expects the back-
logs for these light and mid-size jets to
give it a near-term delivery boost, but
says the order pipeline remains soft,
with deals taking longer to complete.
Meanwhile Bombardiers upgraded su-
per mid-size Challenger 350, set to en-
ter service in 2014, is selling very well,
it says, clearly illustrating the divide in
the market.
For Cessna, whose product line is
mostly light-to-mid-size jets, the need
to move upmarket is paramount. The
manufacturer will begin deliveries of
the light Citation M2 and revamped
mid-size Sovereign and high-speed
Citation X in 2014, but its hopes for
increased deliveries are pinned on the
larger Latitude, to y in 2014 and en-
ter service in 2015, and super-mid-size
Longitude, which is scheduled to y in
2016 and begin deliveries in 2017. Em-
braer will get a boost when its all-new
mid-size Legacy 500 enters service in
2014, followed in 2015 by the medium-
light Legacy 450, but the Brazilian
manufacturer may soon need a more
competitive large-cabin ofering than
its regional airliner-derived Legacy 650.
A consequence of the market shift to
bigger aircraft is increased competition
in the large-cabin, long-range sector.
Dassault has sets it signs on compet-
ing with the Bombardier Global 5000
and Gulfstream G450 with its new
Falcon 5X, which is planned to enter
service in 2017 with the largest cabin
cross-section of any purpose-designed
business jet. While Bombardier plans
to revamp the Global 5000/6000 to stay
competitive, Gulfstream is widely ex-
pected to launch its G450 replacement,
reportedly code-named P42, in 2014. To
compete with Gulfstreams top-of-the-
range G650, Bombardier is developing
the ultra-large-cabin/ultra-long-range
Global 7000/8000 for service entry in
2017 and 2018, respectively.
Meanwhile, the industry barom-
eterthe quarterly shipment reports
compiled by the General Aviation Man-
ufacturers Association (GAMA)is
still trending down, mostly. Business jet
deliveries over the rst nine months of
2013 fell another 2.1% over a year earlier.
But Honeywell has forecast full-year de-
liveries of just 600-625 jets, down 7-11%
from 2012 and less than half of the peak
of 1,313 aircraft shipped in 2008.
Flight activity is trending upward
and used inventory downward, two key
indicators of market health, although
the movements are stubbornly slow.
The Aviation Week Intelligence Net-
work (AWIN) is forecasting a recovery
in jet deliveries, to begin in 2014. AWIN
is forecasting 5,315 business-jet deliver-
ies over the next ve years, with Cessna
ahead of Bombardier and Embraer in
numbers, but Bombardier ahead of Gulf-
Business aircraft manufacturers are preparing
to deliver a wave of new products into a market still
showing no bankable signs of recovering from its pro-
longed collapse after the 2008 global economic crisis.
It is a tense moment for an industry that has tradition-
ally stimulated itself out of downturns by launching
new aircraft and upgrades.
BUSINESS AVIATION
Tap the icon in the digital edition of
AW&ST to see a video review
of business aviation developments
in 2013, or go to
Business Jets
Unit Production
Bombardier
25%
1,330
Gulfstream
16.2%
860
Dassault
8% 425
Embraer
17%
901
All Others
6.5% 343
Cessna
27.4%
1,456
With an extra-wide cabin, Dassaults
Falcon 5X will step up competition
in the large business-jet sector.
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stream and Dassault in value (see
charts).
Turboprop deliveries in the
rst nine months of 2013 were up
another 13.3%, and are already
well above the 2008 peak of 535
aircraft, having bottomed out in
2010. They are being boosted by a
global boom in agricultural aircraft
sales. Air Tractor and Thrush Air-
craft between them delivered 220
single-turboprop ag aircraft in
2012, but were not even listed by
GAMA in 2008. In 2013 their ship-
ments were running 13% ahead of
last years pace. Twin turboprops
have also recovered strongly, with
a 42% increase in deliveries in the
rst nine months of 2013.
The dollar value of shipments has not
declined so precipitously, cushioned by
the turboprop resurgence and the resil-
ience of the high-value large business-jet
market. The collapse of the low end of
the market is dramatic: Almost 65% of
the jets delivered by manufacturers in
the rst nine months of 2013 were super
mid-size and above. Back at the indus-
trys peak in 2008, light to mid-size jets
made up almost 70% of deliveries. By
2012 their share had fallen below 50%,
and it declined further in 2013. Even
when the market does recover, AWIN
is forecasting that almost 50% of jet
deliveries over the next ve years will
be super midsize and above. Given their
higher prices, Honeywell says larger
jets will account for more than 80%
of production value in the near term.
Geographically, Honeywells an-
nual survey of operators purchase
expectations shows an increase of
demand in North America, which
remains the largest market with
61% of the 9,250 jet deliveries fore-
cast from 2013-22. Sales in economi-
cally distressed Europe continue to
slide and, at 12%, its expected share
of the market is now well below Latin
Americas, which is steady at 18%.
Asia-Pacific demand has declined
to 5% of the total, and in the Middle
East and Africa to 4% of the market.
Charter operators are doing well,
and fractional ownership is recovering
following consolidation of the industry.
Fractionals have not taken a signicant
share of deliveries in recent years, but
NetJets ordered 225 aircraft in 2012 and
Directional Aviation another 85 with its
purchase of Flexjet from Bombardier in
2013. This should bolster deliveries be-
ginning in 2014. c
BUSINESS AVIATION
Business Jets To Watch

MODEL/DESIGNATION

SEATS
WING
SPAN
(FT.)

LENGTH
(FT.)

HEIGHT
(FT.)
WING
AREA
(SQ. FT.)
EMPTY
WEIGHT
(LB.)
GROSS
WEIGHT
(LB.)

POWERPLANT
(NO./TYPE)

THRUST
(LB.)

MAX.
SPEED
MAX. RANGE
(NM. @
SPEED)
OPERATING
ALTITUDE
(FT.)
)64)(9+0,9 (,96:7(*,
Global 7000 10-19 104.3 110.6 26.7 56,800 106,250 2 X GE
Passport
16,500 lb.
each
M 0.90 7,300 @
M 0.85
51,000
Learjet 85 8 56.7 68.1 19.9 401 23,850 36,700 2 X P&WC
PW307B
6,100 lb.
each
M 0.82 3,000 @
M 0.78
49,000
*,::5( (09*9(-;
Citation Latitude 9 72.3 62.2 20.8 28,000+ 2 X P&WC
PW306D
5,700 lb.
each
440 kt. 2,500 45,000
Citation Longitude 8 86 87 26 55,000 2 X Snecma
Silvercrest
12,500 lb. M 0.86 4,000 45,000
+(::(<3; (=0(;065
Falcon 5X 8-12 85.9 82.5 24.5 69,600 2 X Snecma
Silvercrest
11,450 lb. M 0.90 5,200 @
M 0.80
51,000
,4)9(,9
Legacy 500 8-12 66.4 67.3 22.1 42,000 2 X Honeywell
HTF7500E
6,540 lb.
each
M 0.82 3,000 45,000
.<3-:;9,(4 (,96:7(*,
G650 8-19 99.6 99.8 25.7 1,283 54,000 99,600 2 X R-R
BR725A1-12
16,900 lb.
each
M 0.925 7,000 @
M 0.85
51,000
/65+( (09*9(-; *6 05*
HondaJet 5/6 39.8 42.6 14.9 9,200 2 X GE Honda
HF120/2,
095 lb. t.
2,050 lb.
each
420 kt. 1,180 43,000
Expanded Tables Online Download expanded specications on in-production and under-development
business jet and turboprop aircraft and search more than 3,100 other systems at AviationWeek.com/specs
Business Jets
Value of Production
Gulfstream
28.5%
$38.8
Dassault
12% $16.3
Cessna
11.1% $15.1
Embraer
8.4% $11.4
All Others
8.2% $11.2
Total Five-Year Value of Production: $136 billion
Bombardier
31.8%
$43.2

Commercial
Technologies To Watch
Increasing safety and efficiency remain the central concerns
for technology development in civil aviation, from aerodynamic advances
to increases in cockpit and control capability
Graham Warwick
COMMERCIAL
We use them every day on our
smartphones and tablets, but
touchscreens will come to aircraft
cockpits in a big way in 2014. Gar-
mins G5000 integrated ightdeck,
with its touchscreen controllers, is
entering service on Bombardiers
Learjet 75, with Cessnas Citation
Sovereign, X, Latitude and Longi-
tude business jets to follow. Rock-
well Collins will introduce the rst
touchscreen primary ight displays
in 2014, with a Pro Line Fusion up-
grade for the Beechcraft King Air;
and Honeywell is strongly tipped
to bring resistive touchscreens to
regional aircraft by 2018 with its
Epic 2 avionics for Embraers next-
generation E-Jet E2s.
Touchscreen Cockpits
ROCKWELL COLLINS
Show Update
Singapore Airshow
U.S. Announced as
the Inaugural Feature
Country in 2014
s ,!2'%34 53 &/2%)'. 02%3%.#%
with more than 150 U.S. companies,
including 70 of them in the U.S. Pavilion,
along with an increased contingent of
U.S. Government and private sector
visitors, VIP guests, and attendees.
4O BOOK YOUR SPACE CONTACT
Danny Soong/Vivian Koo/Cathryn Lee
sales@singaporeairshow.com
OFFICIAL MEDIAPARTNER
&OR MORE INFORMATION ON THE EVENT
visit www.singaporeairshow.com
OR SCAN HERE
Singapore Airshow
#SGAirshow
4O START BUILDING YOUR SHOW
MARKETING PLANS CONTACT
Iain Blackhall
Iain.blackhall@penton.com
&OR THE 53 0AVILION CONTACT
Michael Petrassi
mikep@kallman.com
s 342/.' 3500/24 from the U.S. Embassys
Department of Congress and Ofce of Defence
Cooperation teams in Singapore towards the
U.S. business community to highlight American
participation at the new U.S. Business Forum
and deminars by American exhibitors at the event.

COMMERCIAL
Combined Vision
The cockpit of Dassaults new Falcon 5X business jet is a glimpse of
the futuresynthetic vision on the head-down displays, enhanced
and synthetic vision on the head-up display (HUD). Enhanced
ight vision systemsHUDs that show imagery from infrared
sensorsare set to boom as new rules allow airliners to land at
more runways in lower visibility. Rockwell Collins is developing a
compact waveguide-optics HUD that ts in smaller cockpits and
an uncooled multi-spectral sensor that sees the latest LED runway
lights. The next step is to approve synthetic vision, based on 3-D
terrain databases, for lower-approach visibility mimimums.
Winglet Wars
Once a style statement on business jets, drag-
reducing winglets have sprouted on airliners
across the world as carriers strive to reduce fuel
costs. Now a new generation of winglets is enter-
ing service, beginning with Airbuss Sharklet on
the A320 family, which ofers fuel savings up to 4%
over the original wingtip fences. But the next big
step is Aviation Partners Boeings Split Scimitar,
which enters service on 737NGs in 2014 and of-
fers fuel savings up to 2.2%on top of the
4-5% saved by todays Blended Winglets.
Boeings dual feather winglets on the
737 MAX will ofer a similar saving.

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DASSAULT AVIATION

Aircraft look the same these
days, they saybut not for much
longer, at least at the lightweight
end of aviation. Electric propul-
sion is giving designers the free-
dom to explore some unusual
configurations. Like E-Volo of
Germanys VC-200 Volocopter
a vertical-takeof-and-landing ul-
tralight aircraft in which, in place
of a helicopters rotor, there is a
xed array of 18 electrically pow-
ered propellers, providing lift,
flight control and redundancy.
The Volocopter made its first
ight, indoors and unmanned, in
November. Google is reportedly
backing development of another,
larger electric-powered VTOL
ying car design by Mountain
View, Calif.-based Zee.Aero.
Electric Aircraft
Flow control has been around for
decades as a way to improve aerody-
namics and reduce drag but has never
made it out of the research environ-
ment. Now Boeing is set to introduce
hybrid laminar flow control on the
787-9 when it enters service in 2016.
The passive system in the vertical-tail
leading edge sucks in air owing over
the skin to keep the smooth bound-
ary layer attached. Boeing targets a
1% drag reduction. The company
plans to ight-test active ow
control on a 757 vertical tail
in 2015, to increase rudder
effectiveness on demand
and to enable smaller,
lower-drag tails on fu-
ture aircraft.

Flow Control
Integration of unmanned aircraft into civil airspace is still a few years of, but
authorized use of small UAS by public agencies, such as law enforcement,
already is accelerating as approval processes are streamlined. In Europe,
small UAS are being used commercially for missions such as ofshore plat-
form and wind turbine inspection by operators like the U.K.s Sky-Futures. In
the U.S., the rst FAA restricted-category type certications of small UAS,
the hand-launched AeroVironment Puma AE and long-endurance Insitu
ScanEagle, allowed commercial operations to begin in the sterile Arctic air-
space late in 2013 as a rst step.
Civilian UAVs
SKY-FUTURES
NASA

COMMERCIAL
Fly-by-Wire for All
Broadband Connectivity
Launch of Inmarsats first Global
Xpress broadband mobile communica-
tions satellite at the end of 2013 will set
the stage for an explosion in airborne
connectivity. The planned eet of In-
marsat-5 K
a
-band spot-beam satellites
will provide data rates up to 50Mbps to
aircraft globally, enabling new services
for passengers, crews and operators.
Gogo and OnAir will provide services
to the commercial air transport mar-
ket. Honeywell is building the hard-
ware and will service business aviation.
The future includes cloud-based apps
that crews can access as required, and
systems connected to ground analytics
so they can be monitored and recong-
ured in real time.
Quiet Supersonics
With U.S. government spending un-
der extreme pressure, 2014 could be a
make-or-break year for NASAs hope
of obtaining funds to build a low-boom
supersonic demonstrator. The agency
is reaching the limits of its ability to
explore shaped sonic booms using
wind tunnels and ghters ying spe-
cial maneuvers. NASA needs a repre-
sentative X-plane ight demonstrator
if it is to conduct trials to determine
the sonic boom level the public would
nd acceptable, and gather data to per-
suade regulators to lift the ban on civil
supersonic ight over landunlocking
the potential market for a high-speed
business jet, and perhaps for a small
airliner in the longer term.
Reducing cost is bringing y-by-wire (FBW) to smaller and smaller aircraft, where
it is combining with unmanned-systems technology to enable new capabilities.
Bells Model 525 will be the rst civil FBW helicopter when it ies in 2014 with a
BAE Systems digital ight control system. Manufacturers, meanwhile, are looking
at adding automated emergency modes such as assisted recovery to autopilots
in single-pilot aircraft, to help handle pilot disorientation or incapacitation. And
ying-car developer Terrafugia sees advanced FBW ight control as key to future
designs such as its TF-X.
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By the end of 2014, this regions eet should include more

than 1,400 aircraft.
INDIA
Airframe heavy maintenance expenditures will amount to

$54 million in 2014, with modications adding another $25
million.
Indias in-service eet will increase 14%.

LATIN AMERICA (INCLUDING MEXICO)
Operators in the region will spend about $1 billion on engine

maintenance.
Fleets in the region should grow 5%.

MIDDLE EAST
Middle East operators will generate more than $500 million

in both line maintenance and modications.
Carriers in the region will add about 100 new aircraft.

NORTH AMERICA
Engine MRO expenditures in this region will continue to be

the largest in the world, at nearly $7 billion in 2014.
Fleets of North American airlines will grow 3%, which rep-

resents the lowest percentage of all of the regions, but the
absolute number of deliveries is still the third-highest in the
world, behind China and Asia-Pacic.
WESTERN EUROPE
MRO expenditures are driven almost equally between en-

gine and line maintenance, whereas engine maintenance is
the largest expense in other regions.
Western European airline eets will increase 4%. c

Lee Ann Tegtmeier Washington
2014 MRO Market by Region
The Aviation Week Intelligence Network
(AWIN) 2014 Commercial Fleet & MRO
Forecast projects the global commercial
MRO market value will be $51.9 billion
in 2014. See highlights in an interactive
map in the digital edition. Here are a few
things to expect by region:
AFRICA
Engine MRO expenditures are projected to be more than

$800 million.
The continents total eet will decrease by six aircraft.

ASIA-PACIFIC
The regionexcluding China and Indiawill generate

$1 billion of spending on modications, about one-fourth of
the global modication market.
Excluding China and India, the regions eet will increase 13%.
CHINA
Chinese operators will spend $1 billion on component MRO.
Fleet changes in China will be driven by China Eastern

Airlines, China Southern Airlines, Hainan Airlines and Air
China.
EASTERN EUROPE (INCLUDING RUSSIA)
Line maintenance will be worth more than $400 million.

MAINTENANCE, REPAIR & OVERHAUL
Source: Aviation Week Commercial Fleet Database and MRO Forecast
2014 MRO Market Share by Region
Tap the icon in the
digital edition of
AW&ST for more
details from the
AWIN Commercial Fleet & MRO
Forecast, or go to
AviationWeek.com/mromarket2014

Indeed, the crystal-ball view of narrowbody and widebody
airframe MRO in 2014 is strikingly similar to the picture in
the rear-view mirror. Analysts and leading MRO providers are
united in their opinions that there will not be any major shifts
in the MRO landscape next year, but that current trendsin-
cluding growth in the interiors market, growth in capacity and
rates in Asia, and reductions in maintenance costs through
better data managementwill continue to evolve.
Based on current visibility within the industry, we expect
improvement in 2014 over 2013, but a signicant bounce-back
after the weaker-than-expected 2013 is not expected, wrote
Kenneth Herbert, Canaccord Genuitys managing director,
aerospace & defense equity research, in his Daily Letter of
Oct. 21, 2013, highlighting the results of his Q3/13 Commercial
Aerospace MRO survey. The survey results, he said, [point]
to continued caution and suggest that the headwinds in the
market will continue to be a factor.
One of the notable stories of 2013 was the slower-than-
expected recovery in Europe and Asia, says Herbert. Wed
like to see more out of Asia and Europe than weve seen this
year. The big question is: How well are these markets going
to bounce back next year? Asia, he predicts, will do ne,
while Europe likely will take until the second half of 2014
to begin turning around. I think, fundamentally, trafc will
hold up and airlines will begin to catch up on maintenance
spending, Herbert predicts.
Two major issues will continue to plague the MRO market in
Europe, says David Marcontell, president at TeamSAI. First,
increased carrier consolidation and a slow economy will mean
excess MRO capacity in both Western and Eastern Europe
next year, particularly for narrowbody maintenance. Second,
the regions labor rates, the highest in the world, are starting
to come down in response to competitive pressure. As a result,
there is low-balling out there, says Marcontell. Companies
will undercut in order to get the work and keep people on staf.
In Asia, labor rates are moving in the opposite direction,
a trend that will afect the MRO market in 2014 and beyond.
As rates in Asia rise, what used to be a very attractive labor-
rate diference is rapidly evaporating, observes Marcontell.
This is now starting to inuence decisions about whether
to take planes to Asia for maintenance.
For instance, TeamSAI data show more than 20% of North
American widebody maintenance is performed in Asia. That
will start to diminish, Marcontell predicts. I think well see
that 20% gure accelerate to a reduction in 2014.
Herbert agrees: We believe that the exchange rates are
having an impact on the competitiveness for China, both in
relation to U.S. MROs but also in relation to MROs in other
Asian countries. We believe that there is signicant capacity
that will be coming on line in countries such as Indonesia, the
Philippines, Malaysia and other countries, which will become
increasingly competitive at lower labor rates.
NORTH AMERICA WIDEBODY EXPANSION
Others agree that rising rates in Asia are starting to create
a geographical shift in widebody maintenance that will become
more pronounced in 2014. The rate increase has essentially
closed the gap between Asia Pacic region and North Ameri-
can rates, which means it is not as attractive as it once was for
North American operators to ferry their larger jets across the
Pacic for heavy maintenance. Rates in Asia are now equiva-
lent to or higher than U.S. MRO rates, says Chris Jessup, se-
Heather Baldwin Phoenix
Airframe MRO
Opportunities
Inuences will be interiors, the Asian
market and better data management
The airframe MRO marketinclud-
ing heavy checks, line maintenance and
modicationswill be worth about $17.5
billion in 2014. This includes $9.1 billion
for narrowbody aircraft and $8.4 bil-
lion for the widebody eet. The general
outlook, supported by these numbers,
is that the MRO business will hold fairly
steady next year.
Evolutions in inight
entertainment and the demand
for connectivity will generate
modication work in 2014 as
illustrated by this Airbus A330
rst-class cabin.
AIRBUS

nior vice president of airframe and
engineering services at AAR Corp.
Given the closing rate gap, eet
forecasts predicting growing de-
mand for widebody maintenance,
and customers directly request-
ing widebody capabilities, AAR
moved quickly when the opportu-
nity arose in mid-2013 to assume
tenancy on a 520,000 sq. ft. main-
tenance facility in Lake Charles,
La. The company took over the
facility in late August and began
work there three weeks later. It
received its permanent repair
station license for the location in
mid-November.
Expanding widebody MRO
capacity in North America, AAR will perform check-level,
heavy maintenance and modication services for narrow-
body and widebody aircraft at the new facility. On the wide-
body side, Jessup says AAR is interested in ve eet types:
Airbus A300/A310 freighters (due to the higher numbers
in operation in North America); the Boeing 747, 767 and
777 (due to volume and eet commonality); and the Airbus
A330. The latter, says Jessup, is a niche play. A330 popu-
larity is more outside North America, but a lot of markets
where they are being operated are higher-cost regions.
Conversations with international operators about AAR
providing heavy maintenance services has prompted the
companys interest in the A330.
With 10 widebody slots, the
Lake Charles facility is expected
to grow to at least 1 million man-
hours in 12-15 months, contrib-
uting materially to the expected
$1.6 billion in widebody airframe
MRO work in North America in
2014. Once fully operational, the
expansion in widebody mainte-
nance will change the balance of
work at AAR as a whole. Until
recently, Jessup says AARs air-
frame heavy maintenance work
has been a 90/10 narrowbody/
widebody split. With the shifting
trend toward widebody work, he
anticipates revenue will soon be
divided closer to 75/25 in the short term, and longer term
will be closer to 60/40, underscoring observers predictions
of growth in this segment.
STRONG INTERIORS MARKET
Aviation Week data show the biggest drivers of narrow-
body airframe MRO in 2014 will be the A320 family (includ-
ing the A318 through A321) and Boeing 737 (-300 through
-900 series). The A320 family, including the corporate ver-
sions of each jet, is expected to generate $3.5 billion in air-
frame MRO. The 737 is projected to generate $3.4 billion in
airframe MRO, of which just over $1 million is forecast for
Airframe MRO Market, 2014
(U.S. $ millions)
Widebody Narrowbody
Africa. . . . . . . . . . $ 65.7 . . . . . $ 156.1
Asia-Pacifc . . . . . . 507.9 . . . . . . . . 351
China. . . . . . . . . . . . 92.7 . . . . . . . 253.4
Eastern Europe. . . . . 90.6 . . . . . . . 286.2
India . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.7 . . . . . . . . . 43
Latin America. . . . . . 58.6 . . . . . . . . 267
Middle East . . . . . . 251.6 . . . . . . . 164.2
North America . . . . 542.9 . . . . . 1,286.6
Western Europe . . . 676.7 . . . . . 1,039.4
Source: Aviation Week Commercial Fleet & MRO Forecast
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C and D check work. Together, these platforms represent
75.8% of all narrowbody airframe MRO next year.
These numbers are a reection of eet size rather than
any unusual maintenance requirements next year. Lufthan-
sa Technik was one of many MROs that said the 737 and
A320 families will comprise the lions share of their narrow-
body MRO work due to their large eets worldwide. This
trend will only continue as more than 1,100 new aircraft
in these segments will be delivered in 2014, nearly 58% of
anticipated narrowbody deliveries in 2014.
Narrowbody work at Timco Aviation Services, which
currently comprises 70% of the companys work, is fairly
evenly balanced between 737 and A320 eets. At AAR, the
737 is the single largest revenue driver. Of the 4.8 million
labor-hours performed by AAR last year, slightly more than
1 million was for 737 work. The company averages 10-12 lines
year-round for the 737. For the A320, its second-highest-
volume platform, AAR supports eight to 10 lines in its net-
work, and the eet generates 750,000 labor-hours per year.
We expect volume run rates on the 737 and A320 to re-
main consistent going forward, if not increase, says Jessup.
Operators are happy with the platform, so they are spending
a lot of money on interiors to bring them up to todays stan-
dards. You see new Scimitar Winglets being very popular.
Also new cabin IFE and Wi-Fi requirements. Average man-
hours are being driven up because of these things.
Of the 1 million labor-hours of 737 work, Jessup says
about 21% was tied to cabin upgrades, IFE and winglets
last year. He predicts that number will grow to 30% in 2014,
as demand in those three areas continues to increase.
From a contracting perspective, Timco Aviation Services
does not foresee much change in demand next year com-
pared to 2013. We arent seeing a big drop-of or increase.
For scheduled maintenance, the outlook is pretty stable,
says Leonard Kazmerski, vice president-marketing and
business development at Timco.
Where the company does foresee strong growth is in
special modication work, including IFE installation, Wi-
Fi installations and Scimitar Winglets. Interiors business,
in particular, is keeping Timco busy. A lot of people who
used to y in rst and business class are being pushed to
economy, so airlines are increasingly adding seats, IFE
and other comfort features to the economy class, says Ka-
zmerski. At the same time, airlines are seeking to drive
cost out of their aircraft by reducing weight and adding
as much revenue-generating capabilities as they can, such
as through a premium-economy product. These kinds of
programs are a huge driver behind our interiors demand.
The premium-economy product is one of our best selling
seats right now.
In the past, he says, airline customers would seek short-
term modication programs for one eet type at a time.
That has changed. Today, we are seeing demand for in-
teriors programs that cross the whole eet, narrowbody
and widebody. The trend started developing over the past
couple years, and we see it continuing into 2014. This is
true even at the regional jet level. Timco opened its Cincin-
nati base about a year ago, primarily to support regional
aircraft eets such as Embraer ERJ145s and E170/190s, and
Bombardier CRJ200/700/900s. Kazmerski says a big part
of the work Timco is undertaking there is interiors, having
just launched multiple new contracts for interiors work.
ST Aerospace, which has headed Aviation Weeks Top 10
Airframe MRO list for the past several years, is also seeing
strong demand on the interiors side. It just signed a con-
tract for a cabin reconguration project for two 767-300s for
an Asian carrier and was awarded an STC by the European
Aviation Safety Agency for a full cabin retrot program for
six A330s for an international carrier. The passenger-to-
freighter (PTF) conversion market is also a robust segment
for ST Aerospace. In the third quarter 2013, ST Aerospace
secured new orders worth about $600 million, including
contracts for 17 PTF conversions, bringing to 119 the total
number of aircraft contracted with ST Aerospace for the
Boeing 757-200 PTF conversion program.
Cannacord Genuitys Herbert expects the modication/
retrot market to rise to nearly 10% in 2014. The drivers,
he says, are competitive issues; eet commonality, espe-
cially among airlines that have recently merged; evolution in
inight entertainment and widespread demand for inight
Internet connectivity; and economics, as airlines seek to
lower costs with lighter-weight interiors. This kind of modi-
Aviation Week data forecast that
Boeing 737-600, -700, -800 and
900 aircraft will generate more than
$518 million in airframe MRO in 2014.
This Southwest Airlines 737800
received its rst C check in 2012.
S
O
U
T
H
W
E
S
T

A
I
R
L
I
N
E
S

cation work typically makes up about 7-8% of the MRO
market, he adds. While its growth will outpace some of the
other segments, its relatively small contribution means we
wont see a big change in its contribution in a single year.
BETTER DATA LOWERING COSTS
One other trend several experts pointed to as afecting
the MRO market next year and beyond is airlines increas-
ingly efective use of information. Their ability to rapidly
collect and analyze data is helping carriers reduce main-
tenance spending, particularly in the area of unscheduled
maintenance. Airlines are getting smarter about how they
manage their eets, says Herbert, noting this is a trend
that will only continue to accelerate.
Airlines have collected data about the health of their eets
for many years, but the ability to harness that data in ef-
cient ways and in higher volumes emerged only in about
the last two years, says Linda Hapgood, program manager,
Boeing airplane health management solutions. This capabil-
ity is being driven by a reduction in the cost of communica-
tions solutions that can deliver data from the aircraft in real
time, coupled with new IT solutions that can crunch massive
amounts of data at reasonable cost. Combined, these capa-
bilities are helping airlines make better, faster maintenance
decisions, ultimately lowering maintenance costs.
While it is impossible to know exactly how much impact
this capability is having on the overall airframe MRO mar-
ket, anecdotal evidence suggests it is more than a trie. In
just one event, real-time data monitoring recently saved
one airline about $1 million. Dave Kinney, associate techni-
cal fellow in commercial aviation at Boeing, says one of the
carriers airplanes took of from the U.S. West Coast en
route to Europe and got a low tire-pressure warning about
45 min. into the ight. By pinging the airplane every 20
min. to calculate the leak rate, the company determined
that the tire would be at by the time the aircraft reached
its destination.
Although a landing in Europe would have been possible,
the airlines last three tire failures cost almost $1 million
per event. The airline therefore directed the pilots to land
at an airport on the East Coast, where mechanics changed
the tire and the ight resumed without incident. Multiply
this kind of cost-avoidance across an entire airline, and
then across the industry, and the potential impact on the
airframe MRO market becomes apparent.
Another area in which airlines are using eet data to re-
duce costs is in parts management. Hapgood is responsible
for Boeings Airplane Health Management service, which
monitors aircraft-specic data to watch for trends and seek
problems before they happen. One specic example is an
integrated drive generator (IDG), she says. That part is
very expensive if it gets to the point of failure. It costs about
$500,000 to replace. We can trend data from the IDG and
recommend removal before it gets to failure and airlines
can save by sending it to the shop for overhaul instead of
having to replace it.
As technology continues to improve, enabling faster col-
lection of more data and the ability to rapidly analyze and
understand it, that capability will continue to have more
and more impact on maintenance spending. c
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Paul Seidenman and David J. Spanovich San Francisco
CFM56 Leads
MRO Growth
Modest engine MRO market growth
predicted for coming year
According to data generated by Avi-
ation Week analysts, the global value
of the engine MRO market for 2014
is estimated at $20.3 billion, based on
the in-service engine eet of 63,000 for
that yearincluding 3,952 new deliv-
eries. Some aviation industry analysts
project slightly higher numbers for the
same period.
TeamSAI predicts somewhat
higher figures for the global engine
repair market for 2014: $22 billion in
revenues with a 4-5% annual increase
in spending over the next ve years,
says David Hygate, director-Europe
for TeamSAI. But for the ve years
For 2014, we can assume a 3%
growth rate in parts repair, which still
would be within the $5 billion range,
Brown notes.
The engine OEMs, which com-
manded 53% of the 8,100 total shop
visits in 2013, according to Team-
SAIs Hygate, will continue to be the
dominant force in the engine repair
market. Of the non-OEM shops, which
had 47% of the 2013 shop visits, about
30% were airline afliated, while the
remaining 16-17% were independent.
Hygate sees no change in those per-
centages in the coming year. The
newer turbine engines being delivered
to airlines tend to be locked into OEM
comprehensive service contracts,
which typically run 10-20 years, he
says. As a result, the new engine
product market service business will
be dominated by the OEMs.
But Hygate also predicts that
OEMs will enter into more partner-
shipswith independent MROs and
airline shops, or through joint ven-
ture agreements or licensesover
the next 10 years.
If those shops want a piece of the
repair market, particularly on the
new engine products being delivered,
they will have to work with the engine
OEMs, he notes. The OEMs want to
control the repair and overhaul busi-
ness because there is always more
Analysts tracking the commercial aircraft turbine
engine MRO market see a growth period for the indus-
try from 2014 through 2023, although at a percentage
rate in the low-to-mid-single digits.
beyond, the growth rate will prob-
ably drop to about 2% annually. This
is predicated on the (approximately)
9,000 aircraft on order over the next
10 years.
Richard Brown, a principal at ICF
SH&E in London, values the current
engine MRO market at $22.4 billion
(including $5 billion for engine parts
repair), or 39% of the total air trans-
port MRO market in 2012, which
totaled $56.8 billion. Overall engine
MRO spending is projected to grow at
a rate of 4.2% per year through 2022,
or $34 billion by 2022 in 2012 constant
dollars, he says.
The CFM56-5B will be a top engine MRO
contender for the next couple of years.
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prot in aftermarket services than is
realized on the sale of the new product,
itself. This is why its critical for the
OEMs to control the repair market.
Hygate adds that for airline shops
and independent facilities within the
OEMs MRO network, there are also
material-supply agreements in which
the OEM becomes an exclusive parts
supplier. What the OEM says is, if you
agree to give us the exclusive right to
supply parts to you, well give you a
deal on the [price of] the parts.
North America, says Hygate, is still
the biggest generator of engine work,
accounting for about 31% of the total
(global) market, with the Asia Pacic
(including China and India) region
coming in second at 29%, and Europe,
in third place, at 25%. But he cautions
that while North America will still be
an important player in engine mainte-
nance, the focus of the MRO market is
shifting to Asia, as airlines in the Asia
Pacic regionparticularly China
acquire more aircraft.
We are predicting a compound
annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.7%
for the Asia-Pacific fleets between
2014 and 2024, which is faster than
anywhere else for that period. The
North American and European eets
are still growing, but will slow to some
extent because those eets are more
mature. For that time frame, Team-
SAI puts the North American and
European CAGRs at 0.7% and 2.5%,
respectively.
But Richard Brown of ICF SH&E
maintains that the vast majority of re-
pairs will take place in North America
and Europe, because this is where most
of the overhauls by global value
are performed. In fact, Aviation
Week data for the MRO market,
by region, forecasts that in 2014,
the North American engine MRO
market will generate nearly $7 bil-
lion in sales, with the combined
total for Western and Eastern
Europe at almost $5 billion.
Narrowbody aircraft will ac-
count for the majority of the en-
gine MRO market in 2014, with an
$11.4 billion market share, accord-
ing to Aviation Week data.
The CFM56-5B is a leading
engine MRO market opportu-
nity candidate. The CFM56-5B
is probably the most operated
engine in Europe, and it will be
coming due for shop visits in
large quantities over the next few
years, says Paolo Lironi, executive di-
rector for leasing with SGI Aviation,
an Amsterdam-based consulting rm
specializing in engine management.
Lironi ranks the CFM56-7B and the
IAE V2500 in second and third place,
respectively, in the engine MRO mar-
ket. The V2500 is a more mature en-
gine, and a lot of them are undergoing
shop visits, already.
Among the engines powering wide-
body aircraft, the Rolls-Royce Trent
700 and General Electric CF6-80E1,
reports Lironi, will gure prominently
in the widebody engine MRO market
which Aviation Week estimates will be
about $8.8 billion in 2014. A number of
these engines are ying today, and there
will be more because of the increased
number of deliveries of the A330, says
Lironi. They are also mature engines,
and shop visits are coming due.
The CFM56 engine family will ac-
count for most of the MRO growth
globallywith a 6-7% annual growth
rate over the next ve years, reports
Hygate, with the GE90 family ac-
counting for a 5-6% rate during the
same period. Looking toward the
2019-24 period, we will see the stron-
gest growth in engine MRO coming
from the Trent XWB, the GEnx and
the CFM56-7B, he says. Currently,
shop visits of the CFM 56-5B and -7B
models, and the V2500 are starting to
pick up, as operators of those engines
tended to delay those visits over the
past few years, and can no longer put
them of.
Along that line, SGI Aviations Lironi
says that as engines age, there will be
an ongoing trend by airlines to avoid
shop visits in favor of exchanging their
engines for those with more on-wing
life remaining. This is true now for
some of the older, legacy engines such
as the CFM56-3 used on the [Boeing]
737 classic models, and the CFM56-
5A on the rst generation of [Airbus]
A320s. It is a much cheaper alternative
to sending the engines to the shop for
overhaul.
Lironi adds that for some airlines,
its actually better to dismantle an
engine and re-sell the usable compo-
nents than to have it repaired. The
overhaul of a CFM56-5A, for instance,
will cost about $2 million. But it would
only cost the operator about $30,000
to have the engine dismantled, and
while it is not large, there is a market
for the components.
Interestingly, the accelerated pace
of aircraft retirements over the past
few years should have little im-
pact on the engine MRO market,
according to Hygate. The retire-
ments will make more engines
available for lease or exchange,
meaning that shop visits will take
place later. This will be particu-
larly true with some of the older
engines, such as the CFM56-3
and CF6.
This, he adds, also means that
engines will be available for part-
ing out, with many parts nding
their way into overhauled en-
gines. The engines coming of
retired aircraft will be more a
source of used material rather
than causing a reduction in the
overall MRO market. It might
have the efect of slowing growth,
but not to any great degree. c
2014 Engine MRO Market
($ U.S. millions)
Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 835
Asia-Pacifc . . . . . . . . 3,476
China. . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,628
Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . 955
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 210
Latin America. . . . . . . 1,074
Middle East . . . . . . . . 1,280
North America . . . . . . 6,864
Western Europe . . . . . 3,939
Engine MRO Growth, 2014-24
Compound Annual Growth Rate
China ............................................... 11.6%
India ................................................ 10.6
Eastern Europe .................................. 8.7
Latin America & Caribbean ................ 8.7
Middle East ....................................... 7.3
Africa ................................................. 5.8
Asia Pacifc ........................................ 4.3
Western Europe ................................. 2.1
North America ................................... 0.0
OVERALL AVERAGE ............................ 4.1
Sources: TeamSAI Consulting Services,
2014-24 MRO Forecast

www.bodycote.com

John Croft Washington
Thinking Ahead
Airlines are coming to grips with
ADS-B Out mandates
Although six years away, the January
2020 deadline for ADS-B is high on the
to-do list for maintenance shop visits
even now, especially for smaller opera-
tors with large eets who already know
they will have problems complying.
We will not make 2020, says An-
drew Lotter, vice president and director
of operations for Ameriight, a Part 135
cargo carrier with 175 turboprop and
piston-powered aircraft. We have to
have an aircraft completed every two
weeks to make the deadline. We dont
have the manpower to do it. Lotter re-
quested a waiver from the FAA to give
the airline an extra four years to com-
ply, a plea that the agency has not yet
answered. The mandate will require all
aircraft ying above 10,000 ft. to carry
ADS-B equipment, and at any altitude
within a 30-nm radius of Class B air-
ports or within Class C airspace.
Mainline airlines have not expressed
doubts about meeting the mandate,
but rather are strategizing on how best
to equip in light of budgets and world-
wide activity. We are a global airline,
so we have to consider worldwide man-
dates and/or the advantages of equi-
page, says Dan ODonnell, director of
ight operations technology for United
Airlines. Canada was rst to require
ADS-B on some high-altitude routes
in 2010, with Australia, Hong Kong,
Indonesia and Singapore following in
late 2013. In Europe, new aircraft must
be equipped with ADS-B as of Janu-
ary 2015, and existing aircraft must be
retrotted with the technology by De-
cember 2017, though airlines there are
requesting to push back the date to be
more in line with the FAAs mandate.
A next-generation satellite-based
surveillance technology, ADS-B out
sends GPS-based aircraft position,
heading and velocity, and other iden-
tification data to nearby aircraft and
ground stations for air trafc control
purposes. In most cases, it will require
upgrades to the GPS navigation units
and transponders of thousands of lega-
cy aircraft, while new models will come
factory-equipped. The move is meant in
large part to free the FAA and other air
navigation service providers from using
radar systems as a primary means of
surveillance in the next-generation air
transportation system (NextGen).
While the ADS-B Out mandate
mostly benets the FAA in terms of in-
frastructure costs and air trafc man-
agement capabilities, carriers will stand
to gain operational and safety enhance-
ments by equipping with ADS-B In at
the same time. With ADS-B In, the air-
craft receives GPS location data from
nearby aircraft as well as a comprehen-
sive picture of all air trafc from FAA
ground stations. Software applications
for that data will allow for optimized
cruising and capacity enhancement in
terminal airspace. There are currently
no mandates globally to equip with
ADS-B in, although the U.S. Senate
is pushing for a 2018 mandate.
Southwest Airlines says its ADS-
B Out upgrade plans take into con-
sideration maintenance resources,
equipment availability, and existing
fleet maintenance campaigns and
visits. We analyze gaps and commit
resources to additional maintenance
lines where needed, says Rick Dalton,
director of airspace and ow manage-
ment for the airline. Dalton says part
of the fleet is already equipped with
ADS-B-capable transponders, but the
navigation systems do not meet FAA
requirements. He says the airline is fo-
cused primarily on performance-based
navigation rather than ADS-B In at the
moment.
At United Airlines, the planning
process for ADS-B is multifaceted.
ODonnell says the airline will ideally
schedule its retrofits with regularly
scheduled maintenance work. How-
ever the maintenance visits are gener-
ally very full, and when considering an
entire eet, it could take ve years to
complete a retrot, he says.
Currently, the airlines Boeing 787s,
777s, 747-400s and 767-300s and
Guam-based 737s are already equipped
with elementary and enhanced surveil-
lance (ELS/ELH) versions of ADS-B.
These meet foreign mandates but will
have to be upgraded for the FAA rule.
ODonnell says the airline is in the
process of equipping 41 Boeing 757s
with ADS-B, and in 2014 will begin
outtting 110 Boeing 737s with ADS-B
units built by Rockwell Collins under
an FAA/Boeing operational benefits
validation (OBV) project. Uniteds
OBV aircraft will be its rst that meet
the DO-260B navigation performance
requirements for the FAA mandate, an
The future is now for airlines strategizing their
surveillance system purchases and installations ahead
of the FAAs 2020 mandate for automatic dependent
surveillance-broadcast (ADS-B) equipage.
ADS-B In will boost operational
efciency and pilots situational
awareness of trafc.
J
O
H
N

C
R
O
F
T
/
A
W
&
S
T

ADS-B = Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast
DO-260, DO-260A or DO-260B = RTCA guidelines for ADS-B system performance
FL = Flight Level. NOTE: FL350 is approximately equal to 35,000 ft.
PBN Routes = Performance-Based Navigation routes
HKG FIR = Hong Kong Flight Information Region
EASA = European Aviation Safety Agency
SA Aware GNSS: SA = Selective Availability; GNSS = Global Navigation Satellite System
Source: Honeywell
ADS-B Out Timeline
(U.S. Senate FAA Reauthorization Bill states 2018 for ADS-B In)
enhancement that sets U.S. and Euro-
pean units apart from countries with
less-stringent requirements. Rockwell
Collins has a GPS unit that already
meets the ADS-B requirements, and
as of mid-December was weeks away
from completing the certification of
software to make its existing transpon-
ders meet DO-260B requirements.
Under the OBV program, United will
upgrade the 110 737s between April 2014
and December 2018. The FAA will col-
lect data on the in-service performance
from 2014 to 2016 and issue a nal re-
port in 2016. As part of the program,
United will equip an additional 136 737s
before the 2020 mandate.
Along with funding OBV, the FAA
is also responsible for the data collec-
tion and benets analysis. Craig Peter-
son, Rockwell Collinss director of Air
Transport Systems Marketing, says the
pilot program will investigate all man-
ner of both developmental, application
and in-service environment and utiliza-
tion to completely understand the logis-
tical, technical and operational nuances
of applying this technology to a major
U.S. carrier. He says modest rewiring
of the 737s is required for the upgrade,
in part because ADS-B requires that
the transponder be directly wired to
the GPS unit, which is packaged in a
multi-mode receiver.
Peterson doesnt believe avionics
equipment will be a choke point as
the 2020 deadline gets closer. Most
of the aircraft in revenue service have
a transponder that can upgraded,
and most have a GPS that can be up-
graded, he says. From an avionics
perspective, its not going to be a giant
step forward for manufacturability.
Its more around the rewiring and on-
aircraft modications. It will create a
labor demand and downtime for air-
craft to undergo those modications.
Uniteds ODonnell says the carrier is
proactively wiring aircraft during
heavy maintenance events now so that
when it eventually replaces transpon-
ders, it can be done overnight.
Avionics provider Honeywell has a
DO-260B transponder already avail-
able for the regional airline market,
and will certify units for Airbus and
Boeing models by the end of 2014. Jack
Jacobs, vice president of marketing and
product management for Honeywells
safety and information management
line, says Boeing and Airbus are in
the queue for getting the equipment
for new aircraft, but he has not had a
lot of airlines saying retrot me. The
company has earlier-generation ADS-B
transponders (DO-260A) flying with
United on Boeing 747-400s as part of
an FAA-sponsored ADS-B In program
to study in-trail procedures that al-
low for reduced separation compared
to legacy oceanic separations of 50 nm.
With ADS-B, the procedures will allow
12 ADS-B-equipped 747s to signicantly
reduce that distance, allowing pilots to
requests climbs or descents to attain
the best altitudes for winds while cruis-
ing in the South Pacic during a one-
year operational trial.
In a similar move, US Airways
is equipping 20 Airbus A330s with
ACSS-built ADS-B Out Mode S tran-
sponders and TCAS 3000SP surveil-
lance processors as part of an FAA
pilot program for ADS-B in the North
Atlantic. The avionics will use ACSSs
SafeRoute software applications for
ADS-B In to reduce separation with
ADS-B Out-equipped aircraft to as lit-
tle as 15 nm. using in-trail procedures
in North Atlantic oceanic tracks. As
of mid-December, ACSS was the only
avionics company in the air transport
sector with a certied DO-260B tran-
sponder upgrade available.
ACSS says it has equipped more than
200 aircraft with its DO-260B- compli-
ant transponders since it gained its rst
approval for the system in 2012, and
that airlines with large eets will begin
upgrading in earnest in 2014 to meet the
deadline. The company, an L-3 Com-
munications and Thales joint venture,
is working on a DO-260B transponder
for regional aircraft to be ready in 2014.
For Ameriight, ADS-B In would be
a valuable tool if the company can af-
ford it. We have thought about it and
the benefits are phenomenal, but it
turned into an economics question for
us, says Lotter. No one is coming to
us with the funds to do it.
Lotter says the company, the larg-
est UPS cargo feeder in the U.S., will
spend $6.5 million for basic ADS-B Out
upgrades, packaged with other panel
improvements to be made at the com-
panys Part 145 repair station and Gar-
min dealership. First up for the Garmin
ADS-B units are the Fairchild SA-227s
and Beech 99s, followed by the Beech
1900s. In 2015, Ameriight will begin
upgrading its Embraer 120s; that work
will be done by an outside shop. When
adding in the Piper Navajos to the mix,
the schedule slips out beyond 2020.
If we cant keep up with equipage, we
are going to be left out, says Lotter. c

Sean Broderick and Lee Ann Tegtmeier
MRO Trends To Watch in 2014
OEMs entrench further into the aftermarket as
independents innovate with engineering, partnerships
and mobility.
Lessors & Life Cycles
Lessors continue their evolution toward ofering services throughout aircraft
and engine life cycles by partnering with MRO providers, part-out specialists
and others ofering synergistic solutions.
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LUFTHANSA TECHNIK
Supplier Innovation
Surplus parts suppliers will continue
to innovate as demand for used ser-
viceable materialdriven in part by
impending arrival of new aircraft and
related cuts to spending on outgoing
modelscontinues to increase.
Engine OEM Thrust
Engine OEMs will expand their aftermarket penetration beyond initial sale/
long-term service agreements by tapping into emerging areas such as certifying
surplus parts and the repairs in which those parts will be used.
Parts Partnership
Component OEMs will forge further
partnerships with leading MROs, and
pooling will continue to increase as
both increased parts reliability and
complexity drive component prices
higher.

Where Are You?
Some high-demand emerging mar-
kets such as the Middle East and
China continue to struggle to attract
and retain skilled maintenance and
engineering labor.
Labor-Rate Ramications
The labor-rate gap between mature
and emerging markets continues to
diminish, which puts more empha-
sis on work quality and turnaround
times and less on potential savings
gained through ferrying aircraft out
of a region.
Indonesia & Malaysia
Asian airline growth will create opportunities for MROs to expand, with
Malaysia and Indonesia, in particular, ofering opportunities for in-region
MROs and those from the outside seeking partnerships.
Widening North America
After several years of dormancy, signicant players are expanding capacity
and capabilities in North Americanotably widebody maintenance and
componentsas major airlines become even more focused on their core
competencies.
Mobility
Forward-thinking companies will work on
streamlining information and data ow as they
work toward harnessing Big Data analytics for
operational efciencies, and mobilitysuch as
tablets on the hangar oorbecomes an es-
sential MRO tool to drive efciencies.
Independent Engineering
Independent MROs will continue to invest in
their own engineering capabilities to better
distinguish themselves in an ever-increasing
landscape dominated by OEMs.
Tap the icon in the digital
edition of AW&ST for more
on the MRO trends to look
for next year, or go to
AviationWeek.com/mrotrends2014

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Forecasts
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NOW HERE!
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Fleet & MRO
Forecasts
In addition to tracking the number of deliveries and
retirements over the duration of the forecast period, you can
use the 2014 forecasts to easily ascertain:
Q
Which expense categories show the greatest growth
Q
The growth of MRO spend by global region
Q
How various market sectors will spend the bulk of their
MRO dollars
Q
Market trends
Aviation Weeks Fleet & MRO Forecasts are the industrys leading strategic planning
tools. Trust any or all of these 10-year, year-over-year forecasts to provide you with a
deeper understanding of whats to come, so you can locate new business opportunities
and take the actions needed today to ensure a successful tomorrow.

Henry Canaday Washington
Maintenance
Mobility
Many choicesfrom glasses to watches
ofer wearable maintenance computing
Wearable computing promises many
of the same benets as the latest tab-
lets, but with hands-free operation.
And who needs to have their hands
free more than aviation maintenance
technicians and engineers? Innovation
in wearable devices is evolving so fast
that maintenance shops and depart-
ments soon will have many choices.
Smart watches, smart glasses, smart
rings and other devices will be exten-
sively used in airlines and airports.
Bringing them onto the tarmac or into
hangars is tougher, but the potential
benets are real.
Choosing a device requires looking
at a number of factors. Capabilities,
cost, ease of use and durability are the
most prominent considerations. The
SITA Lab recently conducted trials of
several wearable devices. Innovation
Manager Stephane Cheikh says SITA
worked chiey with Google Glass and
Vuzix M100 headsets, but also looked
at some smart watches.
The M100 has better camera focus,
but Google Glass has a touchpad on
the side, so it is easier to maneuver,
Cheikh summarizes. But practical-
ity for aviation use depends on how a
wearable device is used. Cheikh sees
the M100 as better-suited to mainte-
nance tasks under wings and outside
because it is more robust that Glass.
Furthermore, one limitation of Google
is that lots of features are voice-acti-
vated. Maintenance on the tarmac en-
dures lots of noise, so you might need
to use your hands. Glass would be hard
to use on the tarmac, but it is still a
very good wearable device.
SITA field-tested smart watches
for maintenance with airlines late in
2013. These watches are connected
to other devicesfor example smart-
phonesso users can just tap their
wrists, rather than removing a phone
from a pocket. You touch the watch
screen and get access to the informa-
tion, Cheikh notes.
One good use for wearable devices
might be by the ramp agents who
guide aircraft to gates with batons,
and plug in electricity and other ser-
vices. They need their hands, Cheikh
notes. They now use phones and rug-
ged devices. They could use smart
watches or glasses, take a picture of
the tail number and send it to the air-
port management system, which then
could come back with information to
The digital revolution rst put maintenance data
online, saving paper and major hassles. Then laptops
brought data to techs, saving walking time to desktops
and kiosks. Smartphones, handhelds and tablets are
starting to cut weight from techs bags and shoulders.
Whats next?
Motorola Solutions
HC1 headset computer
is for eld technicians,
including those in
aviation.
MOTOROLA SOLUTIONS

help the agent to do his or her
job, he notes.
One challenge is connecting
wearable devices to wireless
networks, which Cheikh says
is easier inside the airport
than outside. Worker accep-
tance also may be a hurdle, de-
pending on the device. Battery
life is another consideration.
SITA used early prototypes
of Glass and M100 that lasted
for only a couple of hours of
constant use. They will im-
prove, Cheikh predicts. All
the OEMs will come up with improved
devices in the next 18 to 24 months.
Progress is rapid in this eld. For ex-
ample, Vuzix made night-vision equip-
ment for soldiers and weapon sights.
The U.S. Army wanted a substitute for
laptops, which made soldiers visible at
night and weighed them down, explains
Vuzixs president, Paul Travers. So the
company began making wearable dis-
plays and introduced these to consum-
ers in 2004. In November, it launched
the M100, true smart glasses which
combine computing power with a dis-
play and a camera. Its like a wearable
computer with a Bluetooth headset,
you can see a display 12-in. away and
it has a high-denition camera, Trav-
ers explains.
The hands-free device could send
video from a mechanic in the eld to an
engineer, who could then see what the
mechanic is seeing and provide both
voice and visual support, perhaps by
annotating images, on the viewnder.
The exact kind of support available
would depend on applications
created by third-party devel-
opers; Vuzix makes hardware
and drivers only.
Travers says the M100 runs
applications in real time and
can work in either stand-alone
or Internet-connected modes.
It combines images digitally,
not optically, so the user is not
looking through the screen at
the same time while receiving
images.
The M100, like other smart
glasses, is a heavy power-user
when sending or receiving video. So
Vusix ofers a battery clip that can be
attached to a belt and provides up to
12 hr. of operation.
The M100 was developed for en-
terprises, but is not tough enough
to be banged around in a tool box or
submerged in water. Vuzix makes a
tougher modelthe M200for the
military, but this model needs a sepa-
rate computing device. When you
make it tougher, you make it more ex-
pensive and heavier, so when you put
it on your head it hurts at the pinch
points, Travers explains.
Vuzix M100 smart glasses combine
an Android-based wearable
computer with monocular display.
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The current M100 costs $500 to
$1,000 and should last about a year,
Travers estimates. So replacing a dam-
aged one is not very costly, compared
to the cost of other enterprise-level
smart glasses, which Travers puts at
about $2,500. And these others are
not comfortable to wear for more than
an hour. Ours you can wear all day. If
its not comfortable, they wont use it.
Vuzix is shipping the M100 now
mostly to software developers and is
targeting the aviation market. Some
companies are coming to us that want
to develop software and then sell to
airlines, Travers says.
The Vuzix CEO thinks he will have
more to ofer aviation next year. In 2014,
Vuzix will ofer a new lens less than a
millimeter-and-a-half thick that could
be used in cockpits during bad weath-
er. You could put information on the
glasses so people who y small aircraft
can get the same data as the big guys.
Another possible device is more am-
bitious in design, functionalities and
ruggedness, but also more expensive.
Motorola Solutions HC1 Headset Com-
puter was specically built for enter-
prise users, eld technicians in utilities,
telecommunications and both commer-
cial and military aviation, emphasizes
Brian McHale, a product manager for
Motorola. And it is in production, you
can buy it today, he adds.
The HC1s screen emulates a 15-in.
laptop screen to show manuals, dia-
grams or schematics below, without
obscuring the users line of sight.
McHale calls it information snacking,
grabbing information when you need
it. Its like wearing a rugged laptop.
The HC1 is controlled by voice, with
advanced speaker recognition in up to
six languages, or by head movements.
Users can even enter text on a virtual
keyboard by voice or head movements
as well. A clip-on camera can stream
video to remote subject-matter experts.
This device was built for loud envi-
ronments, like tarmacs or busy han-
gars. It has dual, bi-directional noise-
canceling microphones and a near-ear
loudspeaker that can be replaced with
noise-isolating ear buds.
For software, Motorola has part-
nered with another company, Intelligent
Product Solutions. IPS has developed
an application, Entervise, that enables
remote experts to see what techs see in
real time and advise them on xes with
annotated photo instructions. Or senior
engineers could use HC1 and Entervise
to train junior engineers on-site. In both
cases, the aim is to avoid the time and
cost of travel, while bringing valuable
expertise to dispersed locations.
McHale says HC1 is now getting a lot
of interest from both civilian and mili-
tary maintenance organizations. The
device weighs about 24 to 30 ounces
and has been designed to t comfort-
ably with personalized adjustments and
removable comfort pads, which also
allow it to be used by diferent techs.
McHale estimates the HC1 could be
worn for about three hours at a time.
Batteries last from four to eight hours,
depending on battery option and how
much video streaming is done.
The Motorola manager emphasizes
his company now has 21 years of expe-
rience with wearable computing, for
example making wrist and nger de-
vices for warehouse work. We know
what it takes for wearable equipment
to be used seven days a week, he
stresses. The HC1 lists for $4,400 to
$5,500 per unit, but volume purchas-
ers receive discounts. c
Faster search results
Better solutions
Search by category and company
Access to thousands of MRO
providers
HERES HOW IT WORKS:
1. Go to AviationWeek.com/MRO Links
2. Search suppliers by company name or
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To become an MRO Links member, contact:
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betheddy@aviationexhibits.com

Sean Broderick Washington
MRO Rules
From security to new ratings, repair stations
face several rule changes this year
While 2014 isnt expected to bring
comparable change on the mainte-
nance side, a few rules are set to pop
that could keep repair stations and
technical operations divisions busy.
Leading the way is the long-awaited
and now-infamous U.S. Transportation
Security Administration (TSA) repair
station security rule. Despite a con-
gressional mandate to have a rule out
by 2004, a nal version of the regulation
still hadnt seen the light of day as 2013
wound down, though there were indica-
tions that its release was close.
Industry hopes so, but not because
it wants the new regulations. In 2008,
Congressfrustrated with TSAs foot-
draggingbanned FAA from issuing
new certicates to foreign repair sta-
tions until TSA issued its final rule.
(The draft version hit the streets in
2009.) The ban created a queue of
nearly 90 applications.
In March 2013, then-TSA Adminis-
trator John Pistole said the rule was
in final review at the Office of Man-
agement and Budget (OMB). Such
reviewsroutine for all rulesusu-
ally take anywhere from 30 to 90
days. This one has dragged on for six
months. As 2013 drew to a close, the
Aeronautical Repair Station Associa-
tion (ARSA) was lobbying Congress to
lift the ban on new foreign certicates,
new rule be damned.
Elsewhere, OMB in November 2013
got its hands on FAAs proposal to ex-
pand drug and alcohol testing for some
foreign repair station workers. Mandat-
ed by Congress in the 2012 FAA reau-
thorization bill, the rule would close a
perceived loophole in FAA procedures
that limits testing to covered employees
in U.S. locations. Barring an unusually
long review or an issue that warrants
sending the draft back to FAA for revi-
sions, the draft of this rule should be
released in 2014. The congressionally
mandated deadline was February 2013.
FAAs mandate for Part 121 airlines
to implement safety management sys-
tems (SMS) is working its way through
the sometimes-byzantine rulemaking
process. Released in draft form in No-
vember 2010, a nal version of the rule
didnt make it out of the Transportation
Departmentits rst stop on the way
to OMBbefore being routed back to
FAA for ne-tuning. FAA re-submitted
it to DOT in June, whichbarring fur-
ther complicationsgives the rule a
solid chance for publication by 2015.
Lurking in the shadows is what
would be the most significant MRO-
related nal rule in years, FAAs pro-
posal to modify Part 145, the main set
of U.S. regulations for some 4,800 re-
pair stationsincluding some 700 lo-
cated outside the U.S.that hold FAA
certicates. The rules major changes,
a continuation of a partial Part 145 re-
vamp nalized in 2001, would revise the
repair station ratings system that has
been around for decades.
The draft of the newest Part 145
came out in May 2012; the comment
period closed in November 2012. Sev-
eral groups, including the Aircraft Elec-
tronics Association and ARSA, opposed
the proposal outright, and have been
lobbying FAA to factor the nearly 250
public comments into a revamped draft.
Word is that the alternativerelease of
a modied nal rule based partly on in-
dustry inputis in store for 2014.
Add it all upor even parts of it
and some in the industry are bracing
for a costly year.
The regulatory agencies, not just
the FAA, will cost U.S. civil aviation
maintenance more and more produc-
tivity and protability, says ARSA Ex-
ecutive Director Sarah MacLeod, who
argues that the agencys priorities are
misplaced.
The lack of reciprocal agreements,
like the one between the U.S. and Can-
ada that allows work on each countrys
aircraft by the other without issuance of
a certicate, impacts maintenance orga-
nizations disproportionately, she says.
It is ironic that a production certicate
need not be issued by every nation for
parts and products to be acceptable,
while the same is denitely not true for
approved maintenance organizations
[repair station] certicates.
MacLeod urged industry to get in-
volved in rulemaking eforts.
The trend should be for industry to
work more closely on the legal under-
pinnings of the aviation regulations,
she says. That means participation
in International Civil Aviation Organi-
zation (ICAO) as well as being more
proactive in rulemaking at home. c
As U.S. aviation safety-related regulatory
evolutions go, 2013 will be remembered as a
monumental year for pilots. Sweeping sets of new
rules hit the books, revamping training standards and
minimum qualications for all U.S. airline pilots.
Many foreign MRO providers
work on U.S.-registered
aircraft, so FAAs rules often
have global implications.
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MRO Americas delivers 750+ solution providers on the
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From an airline business
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media for our all-around
requirements. This is my
favorite conference to attend.
Stephanie L. Taylor,
Dir. of Materiel Services,
Omni Air International
Avionics and Apps
1. Inertial Reference System
Support
Supplier: Navhouse Corp.
Offering: Navhouse added the Litton
LTN-90-100 inertial reference system
(IRS) testing and support capability
to its roster after acquiring Air France
Industries KLM Engineering &
Maintenances LTN-99 and LTN-90-100
test stations and related equipment. This
IRS is used onboard Boeing 737 and
Airbus A310 aircraft. Navhouse, which
specializes in supporting legacy and
mature inertial navigation systems, holds
a Level 4 repair station rating with FAA,
Transport Canada and EASA approvals,
along with ISO 9001:2008.
www.navhouse.com
Link 600
2. Night Vision
Supplier: Aero Dynamix
Offering: This company, specializing in
aircraft cockpit lighting solutions, includ-
ing night-vision cockpits, has received
AS9100 Rev. 3 and ISO 9001: 2008
certications. These certications
which are a conrmation of safety and
quality standardstook months of audits
and improvements to achieve, which is
typical. Aero Dynamix plans to use these
certications to seek new opportuni-
ties to develop night-vision-compatible
cockpits.
www.aerodynamix.com
Link 601
3. Flight Data
Supplier: Latitude Technologies
Offering: This vertically integrated
manufacturer and provider of ight data,
ight-following services and satellite
communications equipment, added a
Web-based ight data analytics platform
for aircraft equipped with the companys
IONode ight-data recorder. The new
service, Latitude Flight Data Analytics,
is designed to be a user-friendly
MRO LINKS
Enter Link # at www.AviationWeek.com/MROLinks for more information
dashboard that complements the ight-
data monitoring system by enabling
users to put each ight in contextboth
on the map display and video playback
feature. Users also can download ight
data for maintenance reporting and
training.
www.latitudetech.com
Link 602
4. Flexible EFB
Supplier: Scandinavian Avionics
Offering: TUIy selected Scandinavian
Avionics electronic ight bag (EFB)
solution for 12 of its Boeing 737-800
aircraft, with the possibility of full eet
deployment in the future. Scandinavian
Avionics EFB solutions work with
almost any tablet, so operators can
upgrade tablets to keep up with technol-
ogy changes without making the EFB
out-of-date. TUIy chose two rugge-
dized 10.1-in. Panasonic tablets and
Scandinavian Avionics data integra-
tion center DIC-600, which enables
aircraft interface and server capability.
Danish Air Transport and Norwegian Air
Shuttle also signed EFB contracts with
Scandinavian.
www.scanav.com
Link 603
5. Mobile Maintenance
Supplier: Boeing
Offering: Boeings suite of mainte-
nance applications are designed to
improve productivity and efciency,
and Norwegian Air Shuttle just signed
a contract to deploy the maintenance
apps for its line maintenance operations.
Norwegian will deploy the apps in early
2014 to support its Boeing 737 NG
and Classic aircraft, and will integrate
the apps with its back-end maintenance
planning system. After the deployment,
Norwegians maintenance technicians
will be able to access critical informa-
tion in real time via iPads, to shorten
turnaround times.
www.boeing.com
Link 604
4
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Testing, Testing
1. Wi-Fi Remote-Controlled Test
Supplier: Bareld
Offering: Bareld introduced a new fully
automated, Reduced Vertical Separation
Minimum (RVSM) compliant air data
test set, the DPS1000, last year, and
now just added a new featureWi-Fi-
enabled remote control via a tablet or an
iPad. This air data test set is designed
to feature a user-friendly interface and
customer-programmable test routines.
Bareld is a Sabena technics company.
www.bareldinc.com
Link 605
2. Leak Detection
Supplier: Spectronics Corp.
Offering: Spectronics ALK-3675 avia-
tion uid leak-detection kit is designed
to nd leaks in fuel, lubrication and hy-
draulic systems. A key part of the system
is a rechargeable, cordless ultraviolet
LED ashlight that is designed to be
four times brighter than high-intensity
UV lamps. The company says the kit can
detect leaks in both petroleum-based
and synthetic-based lubricants and
fuels. The kit also includes a bottle of
Aero-Brite uorescent dye, Glo-Away
dye cleaner, AC and DC charger, UV-
absorbing glasses and a rubber lamp
protector.
www.spectroline.com
Link 606
3. NDT Options
Supplier: NDT Solutions
Offering: NDT Solutions has added
Pragmas complete line of instruments
to its non-destructive testing distribution
solutions that now include Pragmas
Pragmalite instrument platform, Paut
16/128 phased-array cartridge, and
Orthromatic 60 encoded scanner.
Pragma designs and manufactures
portable NDT systems.
www.ndts.com
Link 607
MRO LINKS
4. Thermographic NDT
Supplier: Thermal Wave Imaging
Offering: The company just released
the VoyageIR Pro portable inspection
system, designed to provide the perfor-
mance of a lab but in a low-cost, hand-
held package. It features Thermal Wave
Imagings thermographic signal recon-
struction, a signal-processing technique
designed to provide the sensitivity of a
full-scale system in a eld-ready pack-
agecoupled with optical excitationto
provide powerful aw-detection capa-
bilities. The patent-pending lamp-control
hardware redirects halogen lamp beams
during the inspection process to provide
uniform heating. Because this system is
self-contained, inspectors do not need
a laptop; they use the touchscreen user
interface to control and display the im-
ages, which are processed and analyzed
simultaneously with Mosaiq software.
www.thermalwave.com
Link 608
5. Rapid Damage Detection
Supplier: WichiTech
Offering: WichiTechs hand-held RD3
(rapid damage-detection device) weighs
less than 4 lb. and can detect degrada-
tion and delaminations in composite
structures. It includes a lightweight
hammer containing an accelerometer
that is connected by a exible cable to
a hand-held module, which includes a
liquid crystal display. Think of this prod-
uct as a digital tap hammer that provides
quantitative readouts that can correlate
to composite structure delamination.
www.wichitech.com
Link 609
4
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ADVERTISING SECTION MRO LINKS SPOTLIGHTS
Link 824
AVMATS
www.avmats.com
AIRFRAMES
Jet Support for you Maintenance Operation
AVMATS specializes
airframe, structural,
composite, engine,
APU, component,
instrument and acces-
sory repair or overhaul
for Falcon, Gulfstream,
Hawker, Sabreliner, Beechjet and Cessna aircraft. AVMATS
is ISO 9001:2008 rated and maintains DGAC & FAA
Certied Repair Stations with EASA approval.
Link 076
Chemetall GmbH
www.chemtall.com
CHEMICALS
Key technologies for
the global aerospace industry
With its Ardrox and Naftoseal
brands, Chemetall offers a complete
specialty chemicals portfolio to the
aerospace industry: sealants, NDT
products, corrosion inhibiting compounds,
cleaners, pretreatment technologies
and paint strippers for airframe, aircraft
operation and aero-engine applications.
Link 828
EMTEQ
www.emteq.com/mro
AVIONICS
Upcoming Mandate Support
With our systems, equipment,
and structures FAA DERs, we
offer customized integration
engineering, complete FAA PMA
approval, EASA POA facility
installation kit provisions, & other
required multinational approvals.
Support experience includes:
PM-CPDLC/DLR & FANS, ADS-B, ACARS,
SATCOM, and TCAS 7.1
Position your business for growth and success in South America,
Central America, Mexico, and the Caribbean!
Network with the people that will help transform your MRO and hear key insights and case studies on whats working
directly from MRO thought leaders such as Juan Carlos Zuazua, CEO of VivaAerobus and companies such as AFI
KLM, Embraer, GE Aviation, TAP M&E, TAM/LATAM Airlines Group, Boeing, GOL Linhas Areas, Azul Linhas Areas
Brasileiras, Insel Air, Copa Airlines, and many more!

The event also features a showcase display of technologies, tools, services, and resources that will increase productivity,
improve effciency, and reduce costs, in addition to a tour of TAP M&E Brazils MRO facilities in Rio de Janeiro.
Upcoming MRO Links Shows:
Locate reliable manufacturers, suppliers, and service providers at Aviation Weeks MRO Event Series!
Visit www.aviationweek.com/events
for more information including complete exhibitor listings and MRO Links participants.
February 5-6, 2014
Dubai, UAE
January 21-22, 2014
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
April 8-10, 2014
Phoenix AZ
Link 081
Clemco Industries Corp.
www.clemcoindustries.com
CLEANING
Robotic Blast Cabinet
Enhances Workow
Robotic nozzle manipulation delivers
repeatable blasting in an appropriately
sized enclosure. Pick-and-place
capability eases loading/unloading.
Automated vision system detects
even the most minor part defect.
Numerous options meet the needs of
your demanding manufacturing and
maintenance operations.

MRO LINKS SPOTLIGHTS
Link 818
A & R Aviation Service Inc.
www.aravservices.com
COMPONENT REPAIR
Nominated MRO Top Shop 2013 FAA/EASA Rep. Station
A&R Aviation special-
izes in the repair and
overhaul of structural
and component parts
on Boeing, Douglas
and Airbus applica-
tions. If its an AOG
or we have a contrac-
tual turn time agreement it is our job to make sure we are on
time and you stay in the air. Our warranty policy explains it all.
Link 056
Aviation Representatives
www.av-reps.com
COMPONENT REPAIR
Av-Reps Component Repair & Overhaul
Av-Reps is a Canadian based
company, dedicated to provid-
ing our customers with quality
component overhaul support
for Airbus, Boeing and ATR
aircraft; as well as Bombardier
regional aircraft. Av-Reps
overhaul capabilities include
landing gear, hydraulic, pneumatic, mechanical and
electrical components for all aircrafts supported.
Link 831
Magnum Aircraft Repair Services d/b/a MARS Inc.
www.marsrepair.com
COMPONENT REPAIR
Hydraulics, Heat Transfers, & Heavy-Load Repairs
MARS Inc. is a FAA repair station
that specializes in overhaul & repair
of aircraft components. Our fully
trained technical staff can diagnose
and repair your components in
less time, with lower costs, and
a tag you can count on all while
maintaining industry-leading
quality standards.
Link 834
Professional Technology Repairs, LLC
www.ptr1.net
COMPONENT REPAIR
24/7 AOG Support Service on Repairs and Exchanges
PTR specializes in the
supply and repair of
aircraft components and
accessories. An AOG 24/7
response team; allowing us
to quickly meet customer
needs. The aviation industry
is a global business; and
PTR strives to give quality/
solutions and committed to excellence in
providing a world class service
Link 823
Aviation Personnel
www.AviationPersonnel.net
CONSULTING SERVICES
PROVIDING AIRCRAFT MAINTENANCE PROFESSIONALS
Aviation Personnel provides
experienced & qualied technical
personnel for the aviation industry:
Structural/Shoot Motal
Technicians
Avionics Tochnicians/lnstallors
A&P Mochanics
Cabinot Buildors and Finishors
Paintors
lntorior lnstallors
lnspoctors
Contact us at: 817-806-4414 Salos_AviationPorsonnol.not
Link 316
BASF
www.aerospace.basf.com
COMPOSITES
BASF Aerospace Materials
Aerospace materials from BASF
include a broad portfolio of products
and technologies that can provide
unique solutions across a wide range
of applications cabin interiors,
structural materials, seating
components, fuel and lubricant
solutions, coatings & specialty
pigments, as well as ame retardants
& re protection.

ADVERTISING SECTION
Link 837
The Offshore Group
www.offshoregroup.com
CONSULTING SERVICES
Manufacturing In Mexico Is Easier Than You Think
The Offshore Group is
Mexicos largest provider
of support services to
foreign manufacturers.
The Offshore Groups
Manufacturing Communities
provide a shared-services
environment that allows
foreign manufacturers to
focus their resources to reach high levels of productivity,
quality, and timely delivery.
Link 825
The Champion Company
www.champion.us.com
GSE
Split, Rollover and Ship Dolly Engine Stands
As a global leader in the
design, development, testing
& manufacturing of shipping
& storage containers &
GSE for aviation, military,
power generation & space
programs, our manufacturing capabilities
cover all metal working requirements for carbon steel,
aluminum, stainless steel & other materials.
Link 836
SkyPaxxx Interior Repairs
www.skypaxxxrepairs.com
INTERIORS
Leading Seat And Interior Repair Station
SkyPaxxx Interior
Repairs is a customer
rst, customer focused
company with specialists
in cabin and crew seating,
seat covers and cushions,
interior component repair
and recovering, part
manufacturing and repair,
and ooring. SkyPaxxx has the capabilities to handle all
of your interior needs.
Link 821
Amglo Kemlite Laboratories
www.amglo.com
LIGHTING
YOUR LIGHTING SOLUTIONS PARTNER!
Amglo Kemlite Laboratories,
Inc. is a global manufacturer
of specialty lamps and related
lamp components in Aerospace,
Aireld, Medical, Vehicular,
Obstruction, Locomotive,
Laser lamp, and Tower Lighting
industries.
Link 121
Harco
www.harcolabs.com
ELECTRICAL COMPONENTS
A320 Landing Gear Harness Repair
Servicing both OEM & Aftermarket
with repair, overhaul & replace-
ment. Capabilities include repair or
replacement hardware for the entire
aircraft, from engine and airframe
to APU, landing gear, ECS and all
subsystems. Specializing in Harness
Assemblies & Temperature Sensors.
Link 342
Erie Aviation, Inc.
www.erieaviation.com
INTERIORS
Self-Closing Washbasin Faucet
by Franke-aquarotter
Self-Closing Faucets for use in aircraft
lavatories. These faucets are avail-
able in dual temperature selection or
for single temp operations. Faucet
features a hydraulically adjustable
timing control for (3-20sec).Supplied as
standard equipment on various Airbus,
Bombardier and Embraer Aircraft.

Link 395
BP Aero Services
www.bpaeroservices.com
MRO SERVICES
Engine Components and
Accessories
BP Aero Services FAA145 Station
supports BP Aerospaces disassembly
operations: offering a one stop shop.
Teardown to 8130 with world class
TAT. Frames, Cases, Tubes, Sensors,
Heat Exchangers, Fuel/Lube Pumps,
Starters. FPI, MPI, CMM inspections
to OEM Requirements: CFM (All),
CF6-80C2, PW4000.
Link 833
Piedmont Aviation Component Services
www.piedmontaviation.com
MRO SERVICES
Piedmont - Exceeding Expectations, Worldwide
Honeywell authorized
service center with over 30
yrs experience. Specializing
in GTCP331, 85 & 36
series APUs & LRUs for
commercial, regional &
military markets. Lease
units readily available. Other
services include Landing
Gear overhaul/repair plus
in-house machining, plating & grinding operations
Link 826
Color Craft
www.colorcraftinc.com
PAINTS/COATINGS
High Performance
Graphics Solutions
Manufacture aircraft livery, interior and
exterior markers/graphics for over 60
years. Innovators and creators of the
revolutionary new O3 Paint Transfer
and TI Interior Direct Print Systems.
Link 757
Impex International
www.impexint.com
MECHANICAL COMPONENTS
YOUR SINGLE SOURCE
FOR FASTENERS AND
FITTINGS
Since 1985, Impex Provides
an extensive product line
of standard and special
engineered mechanical
components (Fasteners and Fittings) to aerospace and
defense customers.ISO 9001 / AS 9120 Certied ,One
Stop Shop for Multiple Items, Exceptional Customer Service
Major Credit Cards Accepted.
Link 547
Innity Air, Inc. / Allight Corp
www.innityair.com
MRO SERVICES
Supplier and Repair Station
Of Choice
Allight Washington (FAA # PK3R654Y)
and Allight Florida (FAA # 8A9R791B)
are strategically located to service your
repair needs. With a core product line
focused on Flight surface control,
interior products, and windshields, we
carry over 1.68 million line items of
inventory for exchange, loan, sales and
lease requirements.
Link 722
M7 Aerospace
www.elbitsystems-us.com
MRO SERVICES
Your Services and Support Solution
The Elbit Systems of America
companies offer a full range of services
and support solutions. This includes
Manufacturing, Parts and Repairs,
Design, Engineering, Planning, Supply
Chain Management, COMBS,
Contractor Logistics Support, and
MRO Services.

ADVERTISING SECTION
Link 360
Nycote Laboratories
www.nycote.com
PAINTS/COATINGS
Coating/Maintenance
Our unique clear formula
shields metals and other
compounds from wear,
corrosion, friction and
conductivity. Its uid
application eliminates
pinholes and gives
surfaces a void-free
impervious barrier that is unattainable by other products.
Link 820
Aero-Zone
www.aero-zone.com
PARTS SUPPLY/LOGISTICS
Aero-Zone Celebrating 20
Years of Industry-Leading
Service!
For 20 years, Aero-Zone
has been a leader in the
aircraft parts industry. A
trusted provider of parts for
commercial, corporate and general-aviation aircraft, we
support aviators large and small. Our team has been
selected for their ability to innovate, and to deliver only
the highest levels of service and quality.
Link 827
EFTEC Ltd.
www.eftecltd.com
Express solutions
to supply chain challenges
EFTEC is a provider of spare parts
for various aircraft types. Quality is a
fundamental component of our people,
our business and the foundation of
our corporate principals. Based on a
thorough knowledge of CRJ-100/200
parts market, we offer the best prices
for our spare parts.
Link 829
First Wave Aerospace
www.rstwave.aero
Best In Service. Right On Price. Always On Call
First Wave Aerospace is
a 21 year-old commercial
aircraft parts distributor
with 24/7 AOG service
answered by a live, expe-
rienced parts specialist. If
We dont have a part in our
7-million part inventory, we
nd it.
Link 830
Kellstrom Materials
www.kellstrommaterials.com
Airline & MRO Spare Parts &
Supply Chain Services
Kellstrom Materials delivers cost-
effective spare parts and supply chain
management support. Services include
new OEM and pre-owned parts
distribution, AOG and JIT support,
consignment management, repair
management, overhauled rotable
components, whole engine assets, and
eet provisioning programs.
Link 753
KAPCO AAXICO
www.kapcoaero.com
More Than Distribution
We are a 100% employee owned
global leader of distribution and supply
chain solutions. We offer customized
supply chain solutions for both OEM
and aftermarket customers and have
various manufacturing capabilities
to meet all your supply chain
management needs.

Link 832
Network Global Logistics
www.nglog.com/industries/aerospace
Covering all your AOG needs
from tip to tail.
NGL is the aerospace industrys
partner of choice, who moves rapidly
and makes the impossible, possible.
Our experienced AOG response team
operates 24x7 to get your aircraft
back in the air as fast as possible, by
expediting the delivery of your critical
parts to any service center around
the world.
Link 819
AeroComply, Inc.
www.aerocomply.com
SOFTWARE
Aviation Management & Compliance Systems in the Cloud
AeroComply is a cloud-based
ERP system specically
designed for the FAA
regulations governing the
aviation industry. Customers
have no IT infrastructure costs
to deal with. If you can get to
the internet, you can manage
your business with the most
powerful ERP system in the industry.
Link 835
PTC
www.ptc.com/go/service
SOFTWARE
PTC Product and Service Advantage
PTCs Service Lifecycle
Management system of
best-in-class technology
solutions enables your
organization to increase
equipment uptime, reduce
the cost and cycle times
of maintenance and repair,
and ensure industry and
regulatory compliance.
Link 822
ATEQ-OMICRON
www.ateq-omicron.com
TEST EQUIPMENT
DO YOURSELF A FAVOR, GET AN ADSE
ADSE 743 Pitot static test set RVSM
compliant capable of altitudes of 60,000FT/
6000ft/min. Large touch screen display
enables all tests to be carried out easily
from the ight deck or cockpit, by a single
operator.
Link 281
AerSale, Inc.
www.aersale.com
SUPPLY CHAIN/LOGISTICS
Excellence in Engine and
Airframe Spares Support
AerSale provides material
supply chain solutions to
both airlines and interna-
tional MRO organizations.
Our material services
include inventory consign-
ments, repair management,
and component exchange
programs.
Link 303
Advanced Torque Products LLC
www.advancedtorque.com
TOOLS
Powerful, Precision Bolting
without External Power
High Precision, Mechanical Torque
Wrenches & Multipliers
1% accuracy - roducod calibration
Lightwoight - orgonomic, small
footprint
All-mochanical - no oxtornal powor roquirod
Digital control - lntornational moasuromont
A Veteran Owned Company
www.ADVANCEDTORQUE.com
Phone: 860.828.1523

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Single Copy Sales
Jan. 22-24Fifth Decennial AHS Aero-
mechanics Specialists Conference. Holiday
Inn at Fishermans Wharf, San Francisco.
Jan. 29-30Marine West Military
Expos. Camp Pendleton, Calif. www.
marinemilitaryexpos.com/marine-west.shtml
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Center. www.aime.aero/
Feb. 6-9DefExpo India 2014. Pragati
Maidan, New Delhi. www.defexpoindia.in/
Feb. 10ATWs 40th Annual Airline
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aspx?EventID=1258971
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events/register.cfm?ev=214
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Feb. 19-21Air Warfare Symposium and
Technology Exposition. Orlando, Fla.
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Feb. 21Seventh Annual Society of
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Symposium. Eglin AFB, Fla. www.setp.org/
southeast/southeast-section-symposium.html
Feb. 25-27AeroDef Manufacturing
Summit and Exposition. Long Beach
Convention Center. www.aerodefevent.com/
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ADVERTISERS IN THIS ISSUE
AAR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3rd Cover
Air Shunt Instruments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .140
Airbus Defence & Space (EADS Astrium) . . 89
Arc En Ciel Com . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .23
Aviation Week
AWIN Fleet & MRO Forecast . . . . . . . . . . . 137
Military Fleet & MRO Forecast . . . . . . . . . 71*
MRO Links. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .140
Singapore Airshow . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117
Aviation Week Events
Defense Technology & Requirements . . .15, 55**
Laureate Awards . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .75*
MRO Americas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142
MRO Latin America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
MRO Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111
BAE Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .103
Ball Aerospace . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
Bodycote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133
Boeing Co., The . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5, 55*, 95
Breitling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12-13
Chromalloy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93
CMC Electronics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
Custom Control Sensors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3
DynCorp International . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .105
Elbit Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
Esterline Engineered Materials . . . . . . . . . . . 129
Euroghter . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
Finmeccanica . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
Forecast International . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97
General Atomics Aeronautical Systems . . . 69
HARCO . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123
HEICO Aerospace . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99
IAI, Israel Aerospace Industries Ltd. . . . . . . . 21
ILA Messe Berlin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113
ILS, Inventory Locator Services LLC . . . . . . 127
ImageSat International . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
Intelsat General Corporation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
Intevac . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
L-3 Communications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Louisiana Economic Development . . . . . . . . . .7
Marvin Test Solutions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .109
Meggitt Defense Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
MTU Aero Engines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
New Hampshire Ball Bearings . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
Ontic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
Philpott Ball & Werner . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139
PPG Industries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101
PTI Technologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
RAFAEL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
Raytheon Co. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11, 81
Rockwell Collins . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4th Cover
RUAG Aerospace . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71**, 75**
Singapore Airshow 2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121
SME, Society of Manufacturing Engineers . . 45
Spirit AeroSystems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2nd Cover
TAT Technologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124
TenCate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
The Lee Company . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
Thomas Instrument . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3
United Technologies, Pratt & Whitney . . . . 131
ViaSat Inc. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35

Classied . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151
AviationWeek.com/jobs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151
Matec Instrument Companies . . . . . . . . . . 151
Survival Products . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151

* - Domestic edition.
** - International edition.
Jan. 21-22MRO Latin America. Rio de Janeiro.
Feb. 4-6MRO Middle East. Dubai.
Feb. 10Air Transport Worlds 40th Annual Airline Industry Achievement
Awards. Pan Pacic Singapore Hotel.
March 4-5Defense Technology and Afordability Requirements. Washington.
March 6Aviation Weeks Laureate Awards. Washington.
April 8-10 MRO Americas. Phoenix.
Oct. 7MRO Europe. Madrid.

J
im McNerney, Boeings chairman and CEO,
began 2013 on a bad note as a lithium-ion bat-
tery meltdown led to an embarrassing three-
month grounding of the 787 jet. Ten months later, it
all seemed like a bad dream. In back-to-back press
conferences at the Dubai Airshow, orders and com-
mitments were announced for more than $100 billion
worth of Boeing jets, including the newly launched
777X. It wasliterallyMcNerneys nest hour.
Like Boeing, the aerospace and defense (A&D)
industry had its share of highs and lows in the tu-
multuous year of 2013. The U.S. Congress, abdicating
its responsibility to govern, allowed indiscriminate,
across-the-board budget cuts to take efect in March.
The industry spent the ensuing months in a fog of
uncertainty about the long-term future of individual
Pentagon programsexacerbated by a congressio-
nally induced government shutdownbefore law-
makers nally ended the year with a modest budget
compromise that will provide some relief and stabil-
ity in 2014.
By contrast, prosperity continued apace in the
commercial aircraft industry, as robust demand for
jetliners padded already bulging orderbooks at Air-
bus and Boeing. The Airbus A350 and Bombardier
CSeries jets made their rst ights, and the 777X
and 787-10 programs were launched, continuing the
industrys rollout of a new generation of more ef-
cient aircraft. And to the delight of airframers and
their suppliers, the Dubai show underscored how
airlines outside the U.S. and Europe continue to re-
shape the market, with hundreds of billions of dollars
in orders from Middle Eastern carriers.
We had our share of changes, too, at Aviation Week
& Space Technology during my rst year as editor-in-
chief. On Aug. 1, our media, data and events business-
es were acquired by Penton Media. Under Pentons
umbrella, were now teamed up with other leading
aviation and aerospace brands, including Air Trans-
port World and SpeedNews. Look for us to leverage
that combined strength in 2014.
I am also proud to report that Aviation Weeks
global team continues to produce world-class aero-
space journalism. Among our recent standouts were
Senior Propulsion Editor Guy Norriss unveiling of
Lockheed Martin Skunk Works plans to develop a
Mach 6 SR-72 aircraft, which went viral on social
media. Not to be outdone, senior defense editors
Amy Butler and Bill Sweetman followed by revealing
the existence of a stealthy unmanned U.S. penetrator
aircraft developed by Northrop Grumman and own
in secret.
Those two scoops under-
scored Aviation Weeks long
history of unearthing what is
going on behind-the-scenes in
A&D. But I believe we also ex-
cel at basic blocking and tack-
ling. We love to get something rstbut not at the
expense of not getting it right. That is not an easy sell
in this age of instant information. We took some heat
for putting up only one article on AviationWeek.com
in the immediate aftermath of the Asiana 777 crash
landing in San Francisco, while cable television news
was breathlessly reporting every rumor. But our sub-
sequent coverage of the crash by Norris and avionics
and safety editor John Croft set us apart by digging
into the issues surrounding the accident, including
how the aircrafts fuselage structure held together,
saving many lives. Numerous readers told us they
turned to Aviation Week to see what was really going
on because they trusted our reporting to be accurate.
But there is always room for improvement. Twice
during the year I issued invitations for comments
on how we could do better, and readers responded
in droves, with reviews that ranged from gushing to
cranky. Were listening. A number of longtime sub-
scribers felt that Aviation Week had strayed too far
from our technical heritage. Weve responded by
bolstering our coverage of avionics and producing
features with deeper dives into critical new tech-
nologies that will advance this industry. We also in-
creased our popular pilot reports, with chief aircraft
evaluation editor Fred George producing articles
(accompanied by online videos) on the Gulfstream
G650, Airbus A400M, Dassault Falcon 2000S and
Bombardier Learjet 75. Meanwhile, we sought to of-
fer new perspectives to our readers by adding four
guest columnists and transferring oversight of our
commercial reporting team from the U.S. to manag-
ing editor Jens Flottau in Frankfurt.
The early returns are positive. In the rst three
quarters of 2013, new subscriptions were up 17% and
subscriptions to our digital-only edition more than
doubled, with a notable increase in Europe. Renewal
rates in both print and digital also ticked up signi-
cantly.
So here I go again. What can we do to further
improve the product? What topics do you want to
read moreor lessabout? Im using the holidays
to clean out my email inbox. Let us know what you
think: (joe.anselmo@aviationweek.com). c
What can we do to further
improve the product?

Blocking and Tackling
Letter from the Editor
Joseph C. Anselmo
Editor-In-Chief

AAR Trusted Partner for Aerospace & Defense
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Your missions success depends on getting the information you need, when
and how you need it. Rockwell Collins provides smart new ways to deliver that
information faster, easier and more reliably. Like intuitive, context-sensitive
avionics for enhanced awareness. Head-up displays with synthetic vision for
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2013 Rockwell Collins. All rights reserved.

Aviation Week &amp; Space Technology - January 6 2014

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INTELLIGENCE FOR AN ESSENTIAL INDUSTRY

Pressure, Temperature & Liquid Flow Switches & Sensors

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special effect pigments, which reect nearly 90 percent

chrome-free electrocoat primer features

By the end of 2014, this regions eet should include more

Airframe heavy maintenance expenditures will amount to

Indias in-service eet will increase 14%.

Operators in the region will spend about $1 billion on engine

Fleets in the region should grow 5%.

Middle East operators will generate more than $500 million

Carriers in the region will add about 100 new aircraft.

Engine MRO expenditures in this region will continue to be

Fleets of North American airlines will grow 3%, which rep-

MRO expenditures are driven almost equally between en-

Western European airline eets will increase 4%. c

Engine MRO expenditures are projected to be more than

The continents total eet will decrease by six aircraft.

The regionexcluding China and Indiawill generate

Chinese operators will spend $1 billion on component MRO.

Fleet changes in China will be driven by China Eastern

Line maintenance will be worth more than $400 million.

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Aviation Week & Space Technology - January 6 2014

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