Port Said University Faculty of Engineering

Naval Architecture and Marine Engineering Department

PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

Post Graduate Course: STATISTICS Course Code: Supervisor: Professor Dr. Yousef Boghdadi

7th APR. 2013

Prepared By:

Mohamed Elmaadawy
Design engineer N.A.M.E. B.Sc. Port Said Shipyard Suez Canal Authority

STATISTICS PROBABILITYDITRIBUTION

Code: 000

Example No. 1. Suppose a lamp factory where the percentage of the damaged lamp is 10% of the total factory production, if a sample of five lamps selected randomly from the factor production, find the following. 1- Find the following probabilities. a. Probability of having one damaged lamp. b. Probability of having all lamps damaged. c. Probability of having maximum one damaged lamp. d. Probability of having at least one damaged lamp. 2- Find the following. a. Expected value for damaged lamps b. Variance 2 for damaged lamps c. calibrated difference for damaged lamps

Solution: X = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. So this is discrete random variable and we will use the binomial function. n= 5 & P=0.1 & q = 1- P = 0.9

P(X) = 5CX . PX . q5-x 1-a: Probability of having one damaged lamp. P(X=1)

P(1) = 5C1 . P1 . q4 = 5C1 . (0.1)1 . (0.9)4 = 5 . 0.1 . 0.6561= 0.32805

1-b: Probability of having all lamps damaged.

P(X=5)

P(5) = 5C5 . P5 . q0 = 5C5 . (0.1)5 . (0.9)0 = 1 . 0.00001 . 1= 0.00001

1-c: Probability of having maximum one damaged lamp. P(X=0) + P(X=1) P(0) = 5C0 . P0 . q5 = 5C0 . (0.1)0 . (0.9)5 = 1 . 1 . 0.59049= 0.59049 P(1) = 5C1 . P1 . q4 = 5C1 . (0.1)1 . (0.9)4 = 5 . 0.1 . 0.6561= 0.32805 P(X=0) + P(X=1) = 0.59049 + 0.32805 = 0.91854 1-c: Probability of having at least one damaged lamp. P(X=0) = 1- 0.5904 = 0.40951 P(X=1) + P(X=2) + P(X=3) + P(X=4) + P(X=5) = 1- P(X=0)

Preparedby:M.Elmaadawy

STATISTICS PROBABILITYDITRIBUTION

Code: 000

2-a: Expected value for damaged lamps = n.P = 5. 0.1= 0.5 2-b: Variance 2 for damaged lamps 2 = n.P.q 2 = 5. 0.1 . 0.9 = 0.45 2-c: calibrated difference for damaged lamps = n.P.q = 0.45 = 0.67082

Preparedby:M.Elmaadawy