Vous êtes sur la page 1sur 19

Welcome

Models and techniques of manpower


demand and supply forecasting

Presented by,
Anuraj k
Ma npowe r Pla nnin g

 The development of strategies to match the


supply of workers to the availability of jobs at
organizational, regional, or national level.
Manpower planning involves reviewing current
manpower resources, forecasting future
requirements and availability, and taking steps
to ensure that the supply of people and skills
meets demand.

 A more current term for manpower planning


at organizational level is human resource
planning.
Demand Forecasting

 It is the process of estimating the requirement


of different kinds of personnel in future

 The basis of manpower forecasts should be the


annual budget and long term corporate plan
translated into activity levels for each function
an department
Techniques of Demand Forecasting

 Managerial Judgment

 Work Study Technique

 Statistical Techniques

 Delphi Technique

 Computer Analysis
Managerial Judgement

 The most typical method for smaller company


 In this method the managers simply sit down,
think about their future work load and how
many people they need
 It adopt both the ‘bottom-up' and ‘top-down’
approach.
Work Study Technique

 It is technique can be used when it is


possible to apply work measurement to
know how long operations should take
and the amount of labour required.
 It calculated in two type

 Work-load Analysis
 Work-force Analysis
Work-load Analysis
 In work load analysis the manpower expert
need to find out sales forecasts, work
schedules and thus determine the manpower
required per unit of product.

Work-force Analysis
 In work-force analysis they keep a sufficient
margin for absenteeism,labour turn over and
idle time on the basis of past experience
Statistical Techniques

 Itis the technique of using high


speed computers and new
mathematical techniques
 The main statistical tools are

 Ratios and Trend analysis

 Regression analysis

 Bureks-smith model
Ratios and Trend analysis

 Ratios, which are calculated for the basis


of past data relating to number of
employees
 The data are collected in different levels
 Future manpower requirement is
calculated on the basis of established
ratios
 The value depend upon accurate records
and realistic estimate of future activity
levels and the effect of improved
performance
Regression Analysis

 The technique is used to estimate the


manpower requirement of an
organization's at a future point of time
 It used when dependent and independent
variables are functionally related to each
other
Bureks-Smith Model

 In this method a mathematical model


developed for personnel forecasting
En = (Lagg+G)1/x
Y
 En – it is estimated level of personnel demand in n
planning period.
 Lagg- it is overall turnover or aggregate level of
current business activity n rupees.
 G- is the total growth in business activity
anticipated through period n in terms of rupees.
 X-it is the average productivity improvement
 Y-is conversion figure relating today’s overall
activity
Delp hi Technique

 The objective of the Delphi technique is to


predict future situations by integrating the
independent opinions of experts
 A major goal of the Delphi technique is to
avoid direct confrontation of experts, since
some individuals may be unduly influenced by
others because of status differences, resulting
in compromise of good ideas
Computer Analysis

 MANPLAN was developed by General Electric"


to overcome human resource modeling
problems (such as the overwhelming
mathematical complexity that can be brought
into such planning efforts). 
      One final merit of MANPLAN is that running
the computer model is relatively inexpensive.
 This computer program needs for its forecast,
asking such questions as:
1.   How many different product lines do you
manufacture?
2.   How many months does your forecast
cover?
 Once these questions are answered and fed
into the computer, the computer can produce
a forecast estimating average human resource
levels required to meet product demand. 
MANPLAN also provides for ranges of possible
human resource needs for any period
Summery

 .  The process of human resource planning is


closely related to other personnel functions,
such as selection, training and development,
and performance evaluation. In order to make
effective planning decisions, managers must
first be able to forecast what their human
resource needs will be.  We have discussed a
number of techniques that firms can utilize in
forecasting their demand for human resources.
Reference

 T.N.Chhabra, Human Resource


Management
 Biswanath Ghosh, Human
Resources Development and
Management
Questions…?