الاستثمار التعليمي في الرأس المال البشري

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2009 2010

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UPMF .

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II

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Rsum
Lducation est un trsor ternel, peu importe la faon dont nous
avons parl de son importance et sa valeur on narrivera jamais
atteindre sa vraie valeur ; parce quelle couvre tous les domaines de la
vie. Elle a t objet dtude et danalyse par les philosophes et les
religieux, par les sociologues et les historiens, les pdagogues et les
politiciens.
Les conomistes pionniers ont toujours parl de limportance
conomique de lducation dune faon thorique, mais ils nont jamais
analys son rle comme un facteur de croissance conomique, car elle a
t vue comme une dpense.
Mais, depuis le milieu du XXe sicle, et avec lchec des thories
conomiques traditionnelles dinterprter ou dexpliquer les grands
dveloppements acclrs et sans prcdent que connait le monde aprs la
seconde guerre mondiale, les conomistes ont modifi leur vision vis-vis de lducation dtant une consommation, on la considre un
investissement productif et stratgique dans le capital humain.
Cette recherche vise donc tudier la relation entre lducation et le
capital humain, et analyser les ressources de financement des
investissements ducatifs et leur volution, ainsi que le rle du capital
humain (accumul par ces investissements ducatifs) dans la croissance
conomique, tout a dans un cadre thorique puis empirique sur le cas de
lAlgrie.
Mots cls : Education, capital humain, consommation,
investissement, financement de lducation, croissance conomique.
IV

Abstract
Education is a treasure forever; no matter how we talked about its
importance and value we'll ever reach its true value because it covers all
areas of life. It has been object of study and analysis by philosophers and
religious, by sociologists and historians, educators and politicians.
The pioneers economists have always spoken of the economic
importance of education in a theoretical manner, but they never discussed
its role as a factor of economic growth, because it was seen as an
expenditure.
But since the mid-twentieth century, with the failure of traditional
economic theories to interpret or explain the major developments
accelerated and unprecedented that knows the world after World War II,
economists have revised their vision screws towards education of being a
consumer, it is considered a productive and strategic investment in human
capital.
The aim of This research is to study the relationship between
education and human capital, and to analyze the resources for financing
educational investments and their trends, together with the role of human
capital (accumulated by the educational investment) in economic growth,
All this in a theoretical framework and empirical case for Algeria.
Keywords: Education, human capital,

financing of education, economic growth.
consumption,
investment,

I ..................................................................................
II ............................................................................
III................................................................................
VI .........................................................................
IX ..........................................................................
XIV .....................................................................
XX .....................................................................
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1 ....... ................................
: 3 ........................
: 4 ..................................................
: 20 .................................................
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VI
: 45...........
: : 46 .......................................
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: 96 ................................
: 98..................
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132 ...................................................................................
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VII
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: 205 ..... ................................
:
208 ..........................................................
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: 239 .....................
: 255 ....
: 256 .........
: 273 .....
: :
289 ......................................................................................
306 ..............................................................

413........................................................
330...................................................
VIII

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6.3%
5.4%
5.6%
5.4%
4.0%
4.8%
6.4%
5.8%
3.4%
5.0%
7.0%
6.4%
5.1%
6.9%
6.2%
6.0%
5.4%
4.8%
4.7%
6.7%
6.2%
4.1%
5.9%
7.4%
5.3%
5.3%
5.8%
5.1%
5.5%
5.0%
4.6%
5.3%
6.2%
6.0%
2.4%
5.5%
6.6%
OCDE
20 ( OCDE
2004 2000 1995
5.3%
)
19
5.4%
(OCDE, 2007a, pp. 212-213):
21
:
: . 1.2 OCDE
1995 2004
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
1995
2.0
2000
1.0
2004
0.0
: .
:
( )OCDE

( )OCDE
(
).
24
:
16661..3
( )OCDE
2004 %87 %13
2004 1995
%1.2 10.

2004 %2.1 %39.5
( )%39.5.. )%31.6( . ( )%27.0 ( )%25.8

: ( )%97.9 ( )%97.5
( )%97.0 ( )%95.6 ()%95.3
%6 ( :
.1.1 .1.2 .2.4 .3.2).6.2
23
:
. 2.2 ( ) OCDE
2004
1995
78.9%
93.4%
21.1%
6.6%
73.0%
92.8%
94.3%
27.0%
7.2%
5.7%
81.2%
87.2%
96.5%
98.1%
18.8%
12.8%
3.5%
1.9%
82.3%
17.7%
89.0%
11.0%
89.8%
10.2%
89.8%
10.2%
82.6%
90.2%
17.4%
9.8%
94.1%
5.9%
OCDE
20 OCDE
( )
87.3%
95.6%
97.9%
91.2%
82.3%
95.3%
90.7%
90.6%
92.9%
90.4%
74.2%
60.5%
12.7%
4.4%
2.1%
8.8%
17.7%
4.7%
9.3%
9.4%
7.1%
9.6%
25.8%
39.5%
80.5%
90.1%
80.7%
19.5%
9.9%
19.3%
99.4%
97.2%
84.2%
98.3%
0.6%
2.8%
15.8%
1.7%
90.1%
97.5%
84.0%
87.1%
97.0%
9.9%
2.5%
16.0%
12.9%
3.0%
87.3%
71.0%
12.7%
29.0%
92.6%
83.9%
68.4%
7.4%
16.1%
31.6%
88.2%
11.8%
87.0%
13.0%
88.3%
11.7%
86.8%
13.2%
91.1%
8.9%
19
(OCDE, 2007a, p. 215):
26
:
. 2.2 ( ) OCDE 1995
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
1995 %
30%
1995 %
20%
10%
0%
: .
. 3.2 ( ) OCDE 2005
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
2004 %
30%
2004 %
20%
10%
0%
: .
22
:
. 4.2 ( ) OCDE 1995
11.8
1995 %
1995 %
88.2
: .
. 5.2 ( ) OCDE 2004
2004 %
13.0
2004 %
87.0
: .

(.)OCDE
22
:
()WEI
( )OCDE

( )OCDE( )UNESCO
1997 ( )WEI :

:
). (UNESCO-UIS/OCDE, 2005, p. 5
: ()WEI

( %5 2002 )2004 (( %12.1 ))2002
(( %7.5 ))2002 ( ))2002( %6.6
: ( ))2002( %1.9 ( ))2002( %2.8
( ))2002( %4.6 .

( . )
21
:
. 3.2 GDP ( (WEI
1995
2002
2004
4.7%
4.6%
5.1%
7.5%
6.4%
3.5%
4.8%
1.9%
12.1%
4.9%
1.5%
6.6%
4.6%
5.2%
5.9%
3.4%
4.6%
5.7%
2.8%
WEI
5.6%
4.3%
( WEI
2002 2004)
5.0%
4.6%
4.5%
:
(UNESCO-UIS/OCDE, 2005),
UNESCO/UIS WEI (www.uis.unesco.org/publications/wei2007).
26
:
. 6. 2. WEI
14
12
10
8
1995
2002
2004
4
2
0
: .
( )OCDE 2004
WEI
()OCDE %1 %5.5
.%4.5
2.
: ()WEI

19
1995

2002 9 2004 8
.
( WEI
)2004 % 3.2
%1.5

:
%79.4 %82.6 .%73.5

%41.3 %48.4 :( .%33.3
)
21
:
. 4 . 2 ( (WEI
1995
2002
2004
3.9%
4.1%
4.3%
0.8%
3.2%
3.8%
3.9%
3.3%
3.4%
1.2%
6.1%
1.4%
0.6%
5.9%
4.5%
3.1%
8.1%
4.5%
2.7%
3.1%
3.7%
2.1%
1.9%
2.0%
3.6%
0.9%
5.0%
4.2%
5.8%
4.3%
2.7%
2.7%
3.6%
4.0%
6.6%
3.3%
3.3%
2.9%
2.2%
3.3%
0.2%
3.3%
3.0%
WEI
3.7%
( WEI
2002 2004)
3.1%
1.2%
1.2%
0.8%
3.1%
1.2%
0.5%
1.6%
0.7%
1.9%
4.6%
6.4%
2.6%
0.2%
3.9%
7.3%
2.7%
4.2%
2.0%
3.8%
1.5%
2.0%
3.2%
1.5%
4.2%
1.8%
:
)(UNESCO-UIS/OCDE, 2005
UNESCO/UIS WEI (www.uis.unesco.org/publications/wei2007).
21
:
. 7 . 2 () GDP ( (WEI
4.3
4.5
3.9
3.8
3.6
3.3
3.1
2.7
2004
3.5
2.7
3
2.5
1.9
1.8
1.6
2004
1.2
1.5
0.9
0.5
0.7
0.8
1
0.5
0
: .
. 8 . 2 ((WEI
82.6
79.4
68.4
80.0
73.5
72.9
70.0
60.0
58.7
60.0
51.6
48.4
2004 %
2004 %
50.0
41.3
40.0
33.3
31.6
27.1
20.6
90.0
24.5
30.0
17.4
20.0
10.0
0.0
: .
24
:

2002 2004
%0.6 )%67.9( 2002 2004
(( .)68.5 .4.2 .9.2 ).2.10
. 5 . 2 ((WEI
2002
2004
67,9
68,5
32,1
31,5
:
. 9.2 ( ) WEI 2002
2002
32.1
%
%
67.9
: .
23
:
. 10.2 ( ) WEI 2004
2004
31.5
%
%
68.5
: .
( )OCDE 2004
WEI
()OCDE %31.5 .%13
:

) (ORIVEL, 2005, p. 4 %1

:
26
:

%2 .
%0.6

%1

.
) (O'ROURKE, 2000
() 26 28 2000
%63
% 35 :
%2 ( . ).2
. 11.2
2%
35%

63%
: .
22
:

(
) (
1991 41 )42 :

( )...
.

( )
.

.
.

.
22
:
) (ROEMER, 1998, pp. 10-25

.

.
21
%1
) (ORIVEL, 2005, pp. 4-5

.%5
( )

:
1960
55.78 %3.8
26
:
%13.5
%91.9 ( )%8.1 .
1965 %85.1
103.27 95.34
%4.9 %15.5
.
1970 158.3
145.9
%5.4 %17.3
.
1975
330.2 %88.7
%11.3 %5.7 %14.7
.
1980
%71.9 567.6
407.8 ( )%71.8 159.8
( )%28.2
%4.9
.% 14.6
1985
606.7 - %6.9 -
1.
:
444.4
%4.8
.%14.1
( .2.6 : .2.7 )
. 6.2 1960 1985
1960
55.78
51.25
4.53
1965
1975
1970
1980
( )
567.6
330.2
158.3
103.27
407.8
293
145.9
95.34
159.8
37.2
12.4
7.93
1985
606.7
444.4
162.3
()%
73.2%
71.8%
88.7%
92.2%
92.3%
91.9%
26.8%
28.2%
11.3%
7.8%
7.7%
8.1%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
()%
71.9%
108.6%
53.3%
85.1%
39.2%
100.8%
53.0%
86.0%
329.6%
200.0%
56.4%
75.1%
6.9%
9.0%
1.6%
()%( )GNP
4.8%
4.9%
5.7%
5.4%
4.9%
3.8%
4.9%
5.1%
6.1%
5.7%
5.2%
4.0%
3.9%
3.8%
4.0%
3.3%
3.0%
2.3%
: :
(UNESCO, Etude statistique sommaire sur lducation dans le monde de
a-
1960 1975, 1977, pp. 45-50).

)b- (HEROLD, KHAN, & REIFF, 1983, p. 11
c- (UNESCO, 2000, p. 118).

11
:
. 12.2 1960 1985
606.7
700
567.6
600
500
400
330.2
)PEE (US$
300
158.3
200
103.27
55.78
100
0
1985
1980
1970
1975
1960
1965
: .
. 13.2 1960 1985
11.3%
26.8%
7.8%
7.7%
8.1%
100%
90%
28.2%
80%
70%
60%

88.7%
73.2%
92.2%
92.3%
91.9%
50%
40%
71.8%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1985
1980
1970
1975
: .
11
1965
1960
:
. 14.2 1960 1985
700
600
500
300

200
100
1990
1985
1980
1970
1975
: .
14
1965
1960
0
1955
)PEE (US$
400
:
. 7.2
1960 1985
1960a
1965a
1975b
1970b
1985b
1980b
()%( )TPE
14.1%
14.6%
14.7%
17.3%
15.0%
13.5%
15.2%
13.6%
13.1%
13.2%
: :
a- (UNESCO, 1971, p. 78).
b- Estimation de lauteur partir de la base de donnes de lUNESCO (mise
jour Sep. 2008).
. 2.15
1960 1985
17.3
14.1
14.6
14.7
18.0
15.2
15.0
13.1
13.6
13.5 13.2
16.0
14.0
12.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
1985
1980
1970
1975
: .
13
1965
1960
PEE % TPE
10.0
: 2005-1990

( )1985-1960
124
:
( 8).
( 16).
( 7).
( 14).
( 21).
( 22).
( 6).
( 30).
1990 997.1
%4.8 ( )GNP
( %12.9 )GNP ( %0.9 )GNP
( %6.1 )GNP
( %3.6 .)GNP
( )TPE ( %13.8 )TPE
16
:
( %35.6 )TPE ( %1.6 )TPE
( %20.5 )TPE ( %9.0 .)TPE
%36.6 1990
1995 1361.9
( %4.9
)GNP ( %4.8 )GNP 1990 (%9.9
)GNP ( %1.0 )GNP
( %6.4 )GNP
( %3.3 .)GNP
( %15.2 )TPE
( %33.1 )TPE ( %1.6 )TPE
( %17.3 )TPE
( %11.6 .)TPE
2000
%8.75 1995 1479.9
%4.9
( %9.9 )GNP
( %1.0 )GNP ( %5.2
)GNP ( %3.5 .)GNP
%14.7
( %31.0 )TPE ( %1.6 )TPE
12
:
( %18.1 )TPE
( %12.4 .)TPE
2005
%38.4 2047.8
( %4.9
1995 )2000 ( %11.3 )GNP
( %1.0 )GNP ( %6.2 )GNP
( %2.7 .)GNP
( %29.8 )TPE
( %14.7 )TPE (%4.0
)TPE ( %21.6 )TPE
( %12.5 ( .)TPE
)
12
:
. 8.2 1990 2005
1990
11.7
38.8
2.3
162.1
35.4
697.9
18.7
30.2
997.1
1995
2000
2005
( )
14.7
40.1
1.3
253.5
71.7
926.7
18
35.8
1361.9
20.9
35.5
1.1
242.1
79.7
1035
27.3
38.3
1479.9
33.8
92.1
2.2
273
102.8
1440.5
39.8
63.5
2047.8
()%
1.2%
3.9%
0.2%
16.3%
3.6%
70.0%
1.9%
3.0%
100%
1.1%
2.9%
0.1%
18.6%
5.3%
68.0%
1.3%
2.6%
100%
1.4%
2.4%
0.1%
16.4%
5.4%
69.9%
1.8%
2.6%
100%
1.7%
4.5%
0.1%
13.3%
5.0%
70.3%
1.9%
3.1%
100%
()%
61.5%
42.0%
25.5%
159.4%
-11.6%
3.6%
110.3%
-18.6%
-42.6%
12.8%
-4.5%
56.4%
29.0%
11.2%
102.3%
39.2%
11.7%
32.8%
45.7%
52.2%
-3.8%
65.8%
7.0%
18.7%
38.4%
8.7%
36.6%
: ( .)2008
11
:
. 16.2 1990 2005
2 500.0
2 047.8
2 000.0
1 479.9
1 361.9
997.1
1 000.0
PEE US$
1 500.0
500.0
2005
1995
2000
1990
: .
. 17.2
1990 2005
100%
90%

70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2005
1995
2000
: .
16
1990
PEE % REGION
80%
:
. 18.2
1990 2005
2 500.0
2 000.0
1 000.0
500.0
2010
2005
1995
2000
: .
6.
1990
1985
PEE US$
1 500.0
:
. 9 . 2 ( ) GNP
1990 2005
1990
1995
2005
2000

()%( )GNP

5.3%
3.8%
5.0%
4.1%
3.6%
5.1%
3.7%
6.1%
4.8%
5.2%
4.1%
4.2%
3.7%
4.5%
5.4%
3.3%
6.4%
4.9%
6.2%
4.5%
2.7%
3.8%
4.6%
5.3%
3.4%
5.3%
4.9%
5.5%
3.9%
3.5%
3.8%
4.4%
5.4%
4.0%
5.4%
4.9%
: ( .)2008
. 19.2 GNP 1990 2005
( )
7.0%

6.0%
5.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
2005
1995
2000
: .
61
1990
PEE % GNP
4.0%
:
. 20.2 GNP 1990 2005
( )
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
1990
3.0%
1995
2.0%
2000
1.0%
2005
0.0%
: .
. 10.2
1990 2005
1990
1995
2000
2005

()%( )TPE

13.0%
14.2%
20.5%
15.9%
13.8%
11.5%
9.0%
16.7%
16.5%
14.9%
17.0%
15.9%
15.3%
11.6%
11.9%
17.3%
17.1%
14.4%
12.1%
15.4%
14.7%
12.4%
12.9%
18.1%
21.6%
12.8%
15.1%
15.3%
16.0%
12.5%
14.6%
17.7%
13.8%
15.2%
14.7%
14.7%
: ( .)2008
61
PEE % GNP
4.0%
:
. 21.2
1990 ( 2005 )
25.0%

20.0%
10.0%
PEE % TPE
15.0%
5.0%
0.0%
2005
1995
2000
1990
: .
. 22.2
1990 ( 2005 )
25.0%
15.0%
10.0%
1990
5.0%
1995
0.0%
2000
2005
: .
64
PEE % TPE
20.0%

:
()
() ()TPE
()
(.)GDP, GNP

.
(
) :
%87 ( )OCDE 2004 %68.5
WEI 2004
%63
%35 %2 .
63
:

%5 .

.
66
:

:

62
:

.

.
( )
( )
"" ) (ROSNAY, 1975 .

( )
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) (POCZTAR, 1989 ""
) (BERTALANFFY, 1968
) (PORCHER, 2008 .

:
:
: :
.
62

.
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) (MORIN, 1991 :
61

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:
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66
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.

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: ( ) .
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.
: .
:
( )
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: :
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:
( ) 1950 9-5 1990.
1954 20 1956 1962 1964 - 1976 1986
1.1
:
( 1963 1976 1989 1996 03-02 27 1423 10 2002
19-08 17 1429
15 2008 )
35-76 16 1396 16 1976 (
33 23 1396 23 1976)
05-99 18 1419 4 1999 (
04-2000 6 2000 10 27
2000 06-08 23
2008 10 27 2008)
04-08 15 1429 23 2008 (
04 19 1429 27 2008)
07-08 16 1429 23 2008 (
11 24 1429 2 2008).
265-08 17 1429 19 2008
( 48 22
1429 24 2008).
1.6
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116
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1954 1000 : 354 :
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1963
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111
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621965 1963
1970
1980
1990
2000
2005
2008

808426
777636
30790
7741099 7661023 6190081 3982359 1879851 1313617

4361744 4843313 4027612 3061252 1689023 1215037
2256232 1895751 1408522 737902 162198
89549
1123123 921959 753947 183205
28630
9031
7485166
3942242
2599866
943058
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80.7%
33.0%
92.0%
60.9%
103.1%
75.0%
107.3%
83.2%
104.1%
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7.0%
58.2%
11.2%
23612
19908
2488
1216
31140
26969
2597
1574
49176
39666
6387
3123
2666
2263
364
39
4528
4065
418
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5832
5263
502
67
34800000 32854159 30506054 25282515 18811202 13746184 11923001 11209844

120893
84698
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101261
54761
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10315
9034
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208
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12694
2248
758
20029
15729
3319
981
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3847
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62.5%
31.9%
69.8%
43.1%
57.9%
28.8%
111.8%
145.8%
76.9%
55.4%
119.8%
52.2%
23.8%
22.9%
27.6%
1.0%
4.1%
11.4%
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6.4%
15.3%
36.8%
34.4%
20.7%
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(1962 2725 )1963
298 1965
5636 211
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1970 1965
12243
143
:
317 842 759
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1980
(
) 57445 3965
( ) 6207
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.
1990
1980
181350
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2000 407795 20846
17460 52804
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901562 30510 120168
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( 2009 )( .
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146
:
. 2.3 :
621965 1963
2725
93
1970
1980
5636
179
211
12243
759
317

901562 721833 407795 181350
57445
120168 106000 52804 22917
6963
33630 20846 13967
3965
0.8%
1.8%
842
298
1990
()%
11.8%
5.9%

14536
6207
2000
2005
15.1%
17460
2008
21.3%
25229
23.9%
30510
()%

24.9% 77.0% 124.9% 215.7% 369.2% 117.2% 106.8%

13.4% 100.7% 130.4% 229.1% 817.4% 324.0% 92.5%
61.3% 49.3% 252.3% 1150.8% 50.2%
20.9% 44.5% 20.1% 134.2% 637.2% 182.6%
:
.
. 3.3
: .
142
1000000
900000
800000
700000
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
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( 1979 )1980
80663 10129 2665 ( )%26.3
).(ONS, 1985, pp. 69-70

1982 272
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-
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1990 : 2004 1131.1
344413
3.. ( )166. 11611 (
) 1..3
166. 4.1.. 1..3
14221(. ).
131
:
.3.4 :
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998

264377 253874 251347 241143 222905 196421 228414 212203 214102
139783 132372 128338 121448 120552 108841 101364 91298 97619

103828 102983 104223 102051 97939 83092 81266 80136 85283
11284 11862 13321 13700- 41500 40277 30800

9482
6657
5465
3944
4414
4488
4284
492
400

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-6.5%
-6.0%
30.8%
23.0%
13.5% -14.0%
10.8%
7.4%
17.9%
2.2%
7.6%
11.0%
1.4%
3.0%
4.8% 770.7%
-1.6%
()%
4.1%
1.0%
4.2%
8.2%
5.6%
3.1%
5.7%
0.7%
0.8% -1.2%
2.1%
4.2%
-4.9% -11.0% -2.8%
42.4% 21.8% 38.6% -10.6%
: )( (www.ons.dz )1.1.
131
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
433384 323432 338797 333501 303564 269625

225723 171043 185980 187413 162025 146844
170968 120900 120165 119144 113141 103053
13771 14853 14938 10334 13501 10189
22922 16636 17714 16610 14897
9539
2.0%
5.1%
-0.7%
-9.7%
0.6%
12.6%
10.3%
9.8%
32.5%
56.2%
1.6%
9.9%
-0.8% 15.7%
0.9%
5.3%
44.6% -23.5%
6.6% 11.5%
-4.5%
-8.0%
0.6%
-0.6%
-6.1%
34.0%
32.0%
41.4%
-7.3%
37.8%
:
. 5.3
500000
450000
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
: .
. 4.3
900.0%
800.0%
700.0%
600.0%
500.0%
300.0%
200.0%
100.0%
0.0%
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: .
134
400.0%
:
:
:

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:
136
:
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:
.
:

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132
:
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.
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16 1.
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.
:
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.
132
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613 ( 31)
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136

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16.
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161
161

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: 1963 1970
: 1971 1995
: 1996 2007
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164
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1624 411.216
( 1621 )
%11.1
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12..1 %16.3
216.2
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(.)GDP
1968
%22.7
1969 ( %7.2
).
163
:
. 1 . 4 ( 1963 ) 1971
1963
1964
1965
1966
322.7
322.7
719.7
548.9
170.8
731.3
497.1
234.2

880.0
930.0
680.0
630.0
200.0
300.0
2912.7
2912.7
3740.9
2632.2
1108.7
3956.0
3052.6
903.5
4945.7
3200.0
1745.7
13344.8
14363.5
15484.0
15008.0
123.0%
70.1%
1.6%
-9.4%
37.1%
()%
-5.4%
27.2%
7.9%
26.7%
-33.3%
28.1%
28.4%
-9.6%
5.8%
16.0%
25.0%
4.8%
-18.5%
93.2%
-21.2%
7.8%
-3.1%
10.9%
7.6%
: .
166
1968
1969
1970
1967
923.3
775.5
147.9
1510.7
896.7
614.0
1687.4
1033.4
654.0
4707.0
3332.0
1375.0
4076.2
2539.2
1537.0
7899.0
3890.0
4009.0
8020.0
4447.0
3573.0
16642.2
19018.3
21018.3
24011.5
4.9%
14.0%
-26.1%
63.6%
15.6%
315.3%
11.7%
15.2%
6.5%
-4.8%
4.1%
-13.4%
-23.8%
93.8%
53.2%
1.5%
14.3%
11.8%
160.8%
-10.9%
14.3%
10.5%
14.2%
. 2.4 ( 1963 ) 1970
1963
1964
1965
100%
100%
0.0%
100%
76.3%
23.7%
( )%
100%
100%
100%
100%
84.0%
77.3%
67.7%
68.0%
16.0%
22.7%
32.3%
32.0%
100%
59.4%
40.6%
11.1%
11.1%
19.2%
20.9%
15.4%
18.5%
16.3%
25.9%
( )%
22.7%
18.7%
18.8%
30.5%
20.4%
19.7%
9.6%
14.5%
17.2%
19.1%
23.1%
15.3%
21.0%
23.2%
18.3%
2.4%
2.4%
0.0%
5.0%
3.8%
1.2%
4.7%
3.2%
1.5%
7.2%
4.3%
2.9%
7.0%
4.3%
2.7%
: .1.4
162
1966
1967
( )%
5.3%
6.2%
4.1%
4.2%
1.2%
2.0%
1968
4.9%
4.1%
0.8%
1969
1970
100%
61.2%
38.8%
:

(1623 %2..6 )162.
.%16.6
%16.2 %6.1
( ).
. 1.4 ( 1963 ) 1970
29.5%

70.5%
: .
162
: ( 1971 )1995
( 1621 )162.
( 1621 )1666
1621 1.4
1623 1.3..2 %12.4
%1.1 .

( %12.6 )1614
( %11.3 )1661
( %6.2 )1661( %6.3 ( .)1612 )
161
:
. 3.4 ( 1971 ) 1995
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
2040.6

1215.6

825.0
2335.8
1454.8
881.0
2669.8
1727.8
942.0
3365.4
2000.4
1365.0
4478.6
2681.6
1797.0

6351.4
4983.9
3681.4
3128.9
2670.0
1855.0
7750.0
4915.0
2835.0
8935.0
5500.0
3435.0
10620.0
6430.0
4190.0
14173.0
7673.0
6500.0
21853.8
13168.8
8685.0
23285.0
14600.0
8685.0
24942.4
30318.5
34504.8
55227.2
61444.5
73817.3
14.5%
19.7%
6.8%
14.3%
18.8%
6.9%
26.1%
15.8%
44.9%
33.1%
34.1%
31.6%
()%
27.4%
11.3%
17.7%
16.7%
43.9%
3.2%
15.3%
11.9%
21.2%
18.9%
16.9%
22.0%
33.5%
19.3%
55.1%
54.2%
71.6%
33.6%
6.5%
10.9%
0.0%
21.6%
13.8%
60.1%
11.3%
20.1%
166
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1977
7806.6
4469.6
3337.0
9246.4
5696.4
3550.0
11936.3
6821.3
5115
15468.4
8968.4
6500
18137.7
10437.7
7700
27750.0
15850.0
11900.0
32465.0
18165.0
14300.0
36881.0
20621.0
16260.0
50897.8
27775.8
23122.0
67788.3
36195.3
31593.0
84842.2
42238.2
42604.0
86966.3
104558.9
128096.9
162500.0
191400.0
207600.0
22.9%
21.4%
25.0%
18.4%
27.4%
6.4%
29.1%
19.7%
44.1%
29.6%
31.5%
27.1%
17.3%
16.4%
18.5%
19.2%
8.6%
37.0%
17.0%
14.6%
20.2%
13.6%
13.5%
13.7%
38.0%
34.7%
42.2%
33.2%
30.3%
36.6%
25.2%
16.7%
34.9%
17.8%
20.2%
22.5%
26.9%
17.8%
8.5%
:
. 3.4 ( 1971 ( ) 1995)
1983
16717.9

10267.9

6450.0
1989
1990
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
21700.7
13520.7
8180.0
23859.0
15189.0
8670.0
28287.6
18260.6
10027.0
28796.0
20942.0
7854.0

39712.0 30870.0 29415.5
31662.0 23740.0 22315.5
8050.0
7130.0
7100.0
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
48003.0
39003.0
9000.0
67191.2
56191.2
11000
88126.6
73626.6
14500
105887.3
88487.3
17400
126804.5
108304.5
18500
503950.3
303950.3
200000.0
535272.9
323272.9
212000.0
734876.0
437976.0
296900.0
98667.0
50421.0
48246.0
1990600.0 1491500.0 1166000.0 1048200.0 844500.0 555800.0 423300.0 349500.0 323700.0 299500.0 291300.0 267600.0 233700.0
327900.0 195300.0 140012.0 121400.0 113000.0 108000.0 128000.0 116986.4 105735.0

203900.0 118300.0 84000.0 71900.0 65500.0 63000.0 67000.0 64186.4 59709.0
124000.0 77000.0 56012.0 49500.0 47500.0 45000.0 61000.0 52800.0 46026.0
-7.8%
-1.6%
-16.2%
29.8%
31.7%
26.8%
9.9%
12.3%
6.0%
18.6%
20.2%
15.7%
()%
4.9%
2.2%
1.8%
6.4%
6.6%
14.7%
0.4%
-9.6%
-21.7%
28.6%
33.4%
12.9%
20.9%
23.2%
11.8%
40.0%
44.1%
22.2%
31.2%
31.0%
31.8%
20.2%
20.2%
20.0%
16.3%
19.4%
13.2%
7.2%
18.4%
-4.6%
10.6%
7.5%
14.7%
9.4%
4.4%
15.5%
-15.6%
-6.0%
-26.2%
4.6%
4.0%
5.6%
7.4%
9.8%
4.2%
15.3%
16.8%
13.2%
39.5%
40.8%
37.5%
67.9%
72.4%
61.0%
53.7%
49.1%
61.3%
6.2%
6.4%
6.0%
37.3%
35.5%
40.0%
12.6%
14.5%
8.9%
2.8%
8.1%
8.0%
21.1%
31.3%
51.9%
24.1%
11.2%
27.9%
33.5%
: .
12.
:
. 4.4 ( 1971 ) 1995
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
100%
59.6%

40.4%
100%
62.3%
100%
64.7%
100%
59.4%
( )%
100%
100%
100%
100%
57.3%
58.0%
62.8%
59.9%
37.7%
35.3%
40.6%
40.1%
26.3%
24.7%
26.1%
26.5%
25.1%
26.9%
23.7%
26.1%
( )%
24.0%
22.9%
21.4%
20.5%
24.6%
23.2%
21.4%
20.4%
25.1%
27.6%
25.6%
22.5%
21.0%
20.7%
23.3%
21.8%
22.1%
7.7%
4.8%
7.7%
5.0%
6.1%
3.6%
( )%
7.5%
7.3%
6.8%
7.3%
4.3%
4.2%
4.2%
4.4%
7.2%
4.4%
7.3%
4.2%
8.1%
4.7%
2.9%
2.7%
2.5%
3.2%
2.8%
3.1%
3.4%

29.1%

3.3%
8.2%
4.9%
2.9%
1976
37.2%
21.4%
2.5%
121
1977
42.0%
22.4%
3.1%
1979
1980
1981
1982
1978
100%
61.6%
100%
57.1%
100%
58.0%
100%
57.5%
42.7%
38.4%
42.9%
42.0%
42.5%
23.5%
24.6%
22.8%
24.8%
21.4%
24.7%
20.6%
18.1%
8.7%
5.0%
3.7%
:
. 4.4 ( 1971 ( ) 1995)
1984
1985
1986
1983
100%

61.4%

38.6%
100%
62.3%
37.7%
100%
63.7%
36.3%
100%
64.6%
35.4%
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
( )%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
81.3%
79.7%
76.9%
75.9%
72.7%
18.7%
20.3%
23.1%
24.1%
27.3%
100%
83.6%
16.4%
100%
83.5%
16.5%
100%
83.6%
16.4%
100%
85.4%
14.6%
16.9%

20.4%

13.4%
20.5%
22.6%
17.8%
20.4%
23.7%
16.4%
22.1%
27.3%
16.4%
( )%
28.4%
25.4%
26.0%
26.7%
37.7%
33.0%
34.1%
33.2%
14.4%
14.4%
14.9%
17.5%
24.6%
33.0%
11.7%
20.5%
27.6%
8.9%
17.5%
24.2%
7.3%
19.8%
27.4%
8.2%
17.3%
24.7%
6.2%
7.2%

4.4%

2.8%
8.1%
5.1%
3.1%
8.2%
5.2%
3.0%
9.4%
6.1%
3.3%
( )%
7.1%
7.3%
8.4%
8.9%
5.7%
5.6%
6.4%
6.5%
1.4%
1.7%
2.0%
2.4%
5.7%
4.6%
1.1%
6.4%
5.4%
1.0%
7.6%
6.3%
1.2%
7.1%
5.9%
1.2%
6.4%
5.4%
0.9%
: .3.4
121
:

(1621 % 22.2 )1666
.%41.4
%11.1 %2.6 ( .
)
. 2.4 ( 1971 ) 1995
32.3%

67.7%
: .
124
: 1996( : )2007

1621 1666 %2.4
16621..2 ( %6.3 )1..6( %2.1 .)1..2

( 1621 )1666 %11.1 %11.1
)%16.6( 1..3 .)%13.1( 1..2
12.123.4 1662
662633.4 4.6 11 1..2
%32.3
1..6 1..2 ( .%2.4 )
123
:
. 5.4 ( 1996 ) 2007
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
160874.3
173504.7
192985.8
212245.2
225511.5
274009.3
296139.5
337694.1
381244.8
403375.1
594478.9
556944.3
136674.3
144804.7
156385.8
175050.2
182591.5
211020.3
229351.5
268565.1
295702.8
311983.1
325110.2
390473.3
28700.0
36600.0
37195.0
42920.0
62989.0
66788.0
69129.0
85542.0
91392
269369
166471
848600.0
946217.1
3946748.6 3555428.1 2302983.0 1920000.0 1811109.9 1602344.2 1452360.0 1176094.8 1098576.7 1022696.7
547000.0
664717.1
760321.7
817692.7
830084.8
948760.0
1652698.3 1439548.8 1255273.0 1200000.0 1141685.9 1053366.2
301600.0
281500.0
262375.0
280884.0
346010.0
503600.0
2294050.4 2115879.3 1047710.0
9306253.7 8381520.2 7458461.8 6126700.1 5264299.8 4546100.2 4260800.0 4123500.0 3238200.1 2830500.1 2780199.9 2570000.0
24200.0
548978.0
669424.0
720000.0
()%

7.9%
11.2%
10.0%
6.3%
21.5%
8.1%
14.0%
12.9%
5.8%
47.4%
-6.3%
5.9%
8.0%
11.9%
4.3%
15.6%
8.7%
17.1%
10.1%
5.5%
4.2%
20.1%
18.6%
27.5%
1.6%
15.4%
46.8%
6.0%
3.5%
23.7%
6.8%
194.7%
-38.2%
11.5%
8.1%
7.4%
7.1%
23.5%
10.3%
13.0%
6.0%
19.9%
54.4%
11.0%
21.5%
14.4%
7.5%
1.5%
14.3%
11.0%
8.4%
5.1%
4.6%
14.7%
14.8%
-6.7%
-6.8%
7.1%
23.2%
45.5%
9.0%
21.9%
7.6%
45.5%
102.0%
8.4%
8.2%
1.8%
14.4%
27.3%
3.3%
6.7%
15.8%
16.4%
21.7%
12.4%
11.0%
: .
126
:
. 6.4 ( 1996 ) 2007
1996
2004
1997
1998
1999
100%

85.0%

15.0%
100%
83.5%
16.5%
100%
81.0%
19.0%
100%
82.5%
17.5%
2003
2002
2001
2000
( )%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
77.6%
79.5%
77.4%
77.0%
81.0%
22.4%
20.5%
22.6%
23.0%
19.0%
100%
77.3%
22.7%
19.0%

25.0%

8.0%
18.3%
21.8%
10.2%
18.9%
20.6%
13.9%
19.3%
21.4%
13.2%
( )%
18.6%
18.5%
18.9%
19.2%
23.5%
21.8%
22.2%
22.0%
10.3%
12.2%
12.5%
12.4%
19.9%
24.6%
11.9%
17.5%
24.9%
8.7%
6.3%

5.3%

0.9%
6.2%
5.2%
1.0%
6.8%
5.5%
1.3%
6.6%
5.4%
1.1%
( )%
6.4%
6.5%
6.4%
5.5%
5.1%
5.0%
5.0%
4.4%
1.3%
1.5%
1.5%
1.0%
6.2%
4.8%
1.4%
: .5.4
122
2005
2006
2007
100%
54.7%
45.3%
100%
70.1%
29.9%
16.7%
22.6%
12.7%
14.1%
23.6%
7.3%
5.4%
4.2%
1.2%
7.1%
3.9%
3.2%
6.0%
4.2%
1.8%
:

(1662 % 21.6 )1..2
( %11.6 ).
. 3.4 ( 1996 ) 2007
21.5%

78.5%
: .

%16.. 1662 %4.
1..2 % 63.2
)%16( 1662 .)%36.4( 1..2

(
)
( ) ( ).
122
:
. 4.4 ( 1962 ) 2007
700000.0
600000.0
500000.0
300000.0
200000.0
400000.0
100000.0
2010
2000
1980 1990
1970
0.0
1960
: .
. 5.4
( 1962 ) 2007
10000000
9000000
8000000
7000000
5000000
4000000
3000000
2000000
1000000
2010
2000
1980 1990
: .
121
1970
0
1960
6000000
:

.
:

( )
1....1..2
:
(
: )
1... 1..2 %11.6
)%11.1( 1..1 1..6
126
:
( )%13.6 %12.3
.%11..

( ) %12..
( %16.. )1..6( %12.4 )1..1
)%12.4( 1..4 .)%12.4( 1..6
( ) %6.2
( %3.2 )1...( %2.4 )1..2
%1.1
( %1.. )1... ( % 1.4 ( .)1..6 )
. 7.4 ( 2000 ) 2007
2000
2001
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
( )%
2007
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.4%
0.3%
0.3%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
17.1%
16.9%
15.9%
15.0%
16.8%
17.1%
15.6%
16.5%
9.0%
11.0%
11.6%
12.8%
12.0%
11.9%
13.0%
14.8%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.3%
1.9%
2.3%
1.9%
1.2%
1.2%
1.1%
1.3%
1.3%
1.5%
1.4%
1.5%
2.2%
2.3%
2.1%
2.1%
2.2%
2.2%
1.8%
2.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
1.4%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.3%
0.6%
12. ( 2000 ( ) 2007)

. 7.4
2000
2001
2002
2003
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.5%
0.6%
7.2%
10.8%
10.2%
9.1%
8.7%
8.8%
7.7%
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.3%
1.3%
0.1%
0.4%
0.5%
16.4%
16.2%
15.0%
16.3%
15.6%
17.3%
15.5%
16.3%
1.9%
1.8%
1.6%
1.7%
0.8%
0.8%
1.5%
1.4%
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
4.2%
4.8%
4.7%
5.3%
5.3%
5.0%
4.9%
6.7%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.4%
0.2%
0.5%
0.5%
0.1%
0.3%
0.3%
. . 0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
4.7%
5.0%
5.6%
6.0%
5.5%
6.3%
6.0%
6.3%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
1.0%
1.1%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.3%
1.2%
1.2%
2.6%
2.0%
1.8%
3.5%
0.3%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
4.9%
5.1%
2.3%
2.0%
1.2%
1.7%
1.4%
2.2%
0.0%
0.0%
2.9%
3.8%
2.6%
3.4%
5.3%
4.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.6%
0.7%
0.6%
0.8%
0.6%
0.8%
0.8%
1.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
77.4%
83.0%
80.6%
85.3%
81.0%
83.1%
81.9%
86.9%
22.6%
17.0%
19.4%
14.7%
19.0%
16.9%
18.1%
13.1%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
22.0%
22.2%
21.8%
23.5%
22.3%
24.9%
22.6%
23.8%
2004
121
2005
2006
2007
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.3%
0.6%
0.6%
6.5%
:
. 6.4
17.4%
22.9%
17.6%
16.4%
5.1%
12.0%
8.6%
: .
:

1... 1..2

%11.. ( %2.4 )1..2 ( %11.7
)1..2
%11.2 %14.2 .%14.2

121
:
( .
)
. 8.4 ( 2000 ) 2007
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
8130
7875
8415
8822
500
313
1325.5
50385
75136
97083
91641
85115
133638
278033.9
237156
3827
7087
15497
20297
18075
25283
55122.8
38747.5
66846
105857
110059
118116
119807
250485
544862.6
661146.7
42920
62989
66788
69129
85542
91392
269369
166471
14005
23607
29820
38152
48733
51285
90518
89796
72777
90363
98410
93282
78973
70765
172690.25
303490.16
22500
27100
26806
28510
39200
130960
200877
197900
32000
36975
42007
45697
36645
38100
118158
105700
313390
436989
494885
513646
512090
792408
1801732.86 1729944.21
32620.0
66611.0
54093.0
155778.0
207910.0
255302.0
346010.0
669424.0 548978.0 503600.0
720000.0
2115879.3 1047710.0
385935.1
492317.5
1163.6..3
()%
-8.2%
-3.1%
6.9%
4.8%
-100.0%
24.0%
49.1%
29.2%
-5.6%
-7.1%
57.0%
85.2% -13.3%
-10.9%
39.9%
118.0%
16.0%
58.4%
4.0%
7.3%
1.4%
109.1%
117.5%
21.3%
15.4%
46.8%
6.0%
3.5%
23.7%
6.8%
194.7%
-38.2%
36.2%
68.6%
26.3%
27.9%
27.7%
5.2%
76.5%
-0.8%
16.0%
24.2%
8.9%
-5.2%
-15.3%
-10.4%
144.0%
75.7%
19.8%
20.4%
-1.1%
6.4%
37.5%
234.1%
53.4%
-1.5%
32.6%
15.5%
13.6%
8.8%
-19.8%
4.0%
210.1%
-10.5%
18.4%
39.4%
13.2%
3.8%
-0.3%
54.7%
118.3%
4.1%
33.5% 188.0% -18.8% 104.2% 101.4%
22.8%
51.2%
27.6%
45.5%
102.0%
8.4%
23.2%
45.5%
31.0% 118.7%
9.0%
21.9%
124
7.6%
-37.4%
323.5%
108.1%
-14.7%
-29.7%
. 8.4
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
( 2000 ( ) 2007)
2005
2006
2007
()%
2.3%
1.6%
1.5%
1.3%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
14.6%
14.9%
17.7%
13.7%
11.8%
12.8%
13.1%
10.3%
1.1%
1.4%
2.8%
3.0%
2.5%
2.4%
2.6%
1.7%
19.3%
21.0%
20.0%
17.6%
16.6%
23.9%
25.8%
28.8%
12.4%
12.5%
12.2%
10.3%
11.9%
8.7%
12.7%
7.3%
4.0%
4.7%
5.4%
5.7%
6.8%
4.9%
4.3%
3.9%
21.0%
17.9%
17.9%
13.9%
11.0%
6.8%
8.2%
13.2%
6.5%
5.4%
4.9%
4.3%
5.4%
12.5%
9.5%
8.6%
9.2%
7.3%
7.7%
6.8%
5.1%
3.6%
5.6%
4.6%
90.6%
86.8%
90.1%
76.7%
71.1%
75.6%
81.8%
78.5%
13.2%
9.9%
23.3%
28.9%
24.4%
18.2%
21.5%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
9.4%

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
: 2000 2006 2005 2007 .

. 7.4

5.0% 2.2% 0.9%
6.2%
18.6%
7.1%
11.0%
21.6%

13.7%

: .
123
13.6%
:

( )
1662( .1..6 )

%21.1

%11.4 .%2.2

( %26.2 )1662 ( %23.6 )1..6
( %13.2 )1662 ( %12.3 )1..6
( %6.4 )1662 ( %2.2 .)1..6

( %23.2 %62.1
) ( %1..2 %11.6
) ( %3.2 %13.3
) (
).
126
:
. 9.4 ( 1996 ) 2005
1996
1997
1998
1999
160874.3
128133.3
23688.0
9053.0
173504.7
138192.5
26061.7
9250.4
192985.8
146553.4
35974.3
10458.1
( )
296139.5
274009.3
225511.5
212245.2
193685.3
188098.8
161240.0
153936.2
79715.2
65652.3
49562.1
46135.5
22739.0
20258.3
14709.5
12173.5
337694.1
220516.9
92002.5
25174.7
136674.3
111394.3
19559.0
5721.0
144804.7
118194.5
21280.7
5329.4
156385.8
124701.4
25004.3
6680.1
( )
229351.5
211020.3
182591.5
175050.2
158109.3
153248.8
135820.0
132753.2
58743.2
47122.3
38703.1
34857.5
12499.0
10649.3
8068.5
7439.5
268565.1
186105.9
68282.5
14176.7
24200.0
16739.0
4129.0
3332.0
28700.0
19998.0
4781.0
3921.0
36600.0
21852.0
10970.0
3778.0
( )
66788.0
62989.0
42920.0
37195.0
35576.0
34850.0
25420.0
21183.0
20972.0
18530.0
10859.0
11278.0
10240.0
9609.0
6641.0
4734.0
69129.0
34411.0
23720.0
10998.0
122
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
381244.8
256518.1
96811.1
27915.6
403375.1
261957.9
110435.4
30981.9
295702.8
214402.1
66497.1
14803.6
311983.1
216908.9
78671.4
16402.9
85542.0
42116.0
30314.0
13112.0
91392.0
45049.0
31764.0
14579.0
. 10.4 ( 1996 ) 2005
1996
1997
1998
1999
100.0%
79.6%
14.7%
5.6%
100.0%
79.6%
15.0%
5.3%
100.0%
75.9%
18.6%
5.4%
()%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
65.4%
68.6%
71.5%
72.5%
26.9%
24.0%
22.0%
21.7%
7.7%
7.4%
6.5%
5.7%
100.0%
65.3%
27.2%
7.5%
100.0%
81.5%
14.3%
4.2%
100.0%
81.6%
14.7%
3.7%
100.0%
79.7%
16.0%
4.3%
()%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
68.9%
72.6%
74.4%
75.8%
25.6%
22.3%
21.2%
19.9%
5.4%
5.0%
4.4%
4.2%
100.0%
69.3%
25.4%
5.3%
100%
69.2%
17.1%
13.8%
100%
69.7%
16.7%
13.7%
100%
59.7%
30.0%
10.3%
()%
100%
100%
100%
100%
53.3%
55.3%
59.2%
57.0%
31.4%
29.4%
25.3%
30.3%
15.3%
15.3%
15.5%
12.7%
100%
49.8%
34.3%
15.9%
122
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
100.0%
67.3%
25.4%
7.3%
100.0%
64.9%
27.4%
7.7%
100.0%
72.5%
22.5%
5.0%
100.0%
69.5%
25.2%
5.3%
100%
49.2%
35.4%
15.3%
100%
49.3%
34.8%
16.0%
:
. 8.4
6.6%

22.3%
71.1%
: .
. 9.4
4.7%
20.7%

74.6%
: .
121
. 10.4
14.4%

28.5%
57.2%
: .
126

: ()
() ()
( GDP,
.)GNP

1626 162.
1626
( %16.. )
( %11.6 ) %12.4 162.
.%11

1626 :162.
%2.. ( %6.3 ).
: %62
16231..2
.
11.
:

1616 161. 1626166.

( %11.3 %1..3 %14.6 %1..6
%13.1 %13.2 %13.2 %14.1 ).
( )

1616 161. 1626%2.4( 166.
%2.1 %1.1 %2.4 %2.3 %3.1 %3.6 %6.2%3.1
)
( )

.
.

:

1... 1666 :( .1..6
)
111
:
. 11.4 ( 1995 ) 2005
1995
2000
2005
( )%

16.5%
14.9%
17.0%
15.9%
15.3%
11.6%
11.9%
17.3%
15.2%
17.3%
17.1%
14.4%
12.1%
15.4%
14.7%
12.4%
12.9%
18.1%
14.7%
19.2%
21.6%
12.8%
15.1%
15.3%
16.0%
12.5%
14.6%
17.7%
14.7%
17.5%
()GNP

5.2%
4.1%
4.2%
3.7%
4.5%
5.4%
3.3%
6.4%
4.9%
6.7%
5.5%
3.9%
3.5%
3.8%
4.4%
5.4%
4.0%
5.4%
4.9%
5.8%
6.2%
4.5%
2.7%
3.8%
4.6%
5.3%
3.4%
5.3%
4.9%
5.7%

( %12.4 )1666
( %16.1 )1...( %12.6 )1..6
1666 1...
( )%11.2 ( )%12.2
.1..6
111
:

( )GNP
( %2.2 ( %6.1 )1666 )1...( %6.2 .)1..6
1..6
( .%2.1 )
. 11.4
1995 2005
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
1995
2000
2005
: .
. 12.4
1995 2005

25.0%
20.0%

15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
2000
2005
: .
114
1995
:
. 13.4
1995 2005
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
1995
2000
2005
: .
. 14.4
1995 2005
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%

4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
2000
2005
: .
113
1995
:

.
:

) (PAUL, 2008

) (FREEMAN, 1986) (BECKER, 1967
)(TCHIBOZO, 1999
)(HECKMAN, LOCHNER, & TODD, 2006
.

()
116
:

%63
% 35 :
%2
) (O'ROURKE, 2000
:
) (CASTLES, 1989
1981-1960
:
.
) (POTERBA, 1997

1960 1990
65 ()

.
) (FERNANDEZ & ROGERSON, 1997

1950 1990 (
65
() - )
.
112
:
) (VERBINA & CHOWDHURY, 2004
: 88
1999 2000 :

.
) (BILEK, 2004, 2006
: (
)
()
.
) (De MERDEIROS & BARCELOS, 2007
2000
:
. :

15
15
.2000

.
112

(
).

( ).

: .
111
:
: ( )

:
.1 ( )

:

.

( 6 5
4 7)

.
( )

.

116
:
( )

.
.2 (62
)1662

( )
.
.4 :

:

.
.
.
.3

.
.5
(

) :
16.
:

( )...
.6

... .
: ( )
:
.3 :

:

.

.

.
.6 :
...
161
:

.
.2
( )
( 1..4
)12 (
) (
)
) (Garant & Scieur, 2001
:

...
.
.2 ( )

.....
.1 :
.
.9 ( )...
) (BILEK, 2006 ( )

)(FALCH & RATTSO, 1999) (FALCH & RATTSO, 1997

.
161
:

( )1999 :
.
:

.
:

:
....
:

) (FAURE & al., 1972

164
:
( )1968-1960 %17
.%20
:

...
163
:

.

( )
( )
( .)2008
( )
1621
.1..6
166

2005 -1971 :
:
])[log(DFmen
( ):
]) [log(DFgouv
( )

]) [log(ENSG
])[log(SNMG

:
(
( )MCO
11.3 :
)
162
:
. 12.4
)l(DFmen
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
20.76
20.93
21.08
21.20
21.47
21.60
21.74
21.93
22.17
22.32
22.63
22.79
22.71
23.04
23.12
23.33
23.49
23.56
23.61
23.94
24.14
24.51
24.78
24.96
25.19
25.44
25.50
25.55
25.61
25.63
25.76
25.79
25.95
26.09
26.10
)ln(DFgouv
22.32
22.43
22.58
22.76
23.30
23.40
23.49
23.62
23.75
24.05
24.31
24.47
24.64
24.81
24.89
24.93
24.87
24.91
25.00
25.15
25.50
26.04
26.44
26.50
26.81
27.03
27.22
27.36
27.43
27.44
27.58
27.68
27.76
27.81
27.86
)ln(ENSG
)ln(SNMG
10.91
11.03
11.08
11.15
11.24
11.34
11.43
11.55
11.63
11.71
11.76
11.85
11.94
12.05
12.13
12.24
12.34
12.40
12.44
12.49
12.54
12.56
12.58
12.64
12.66
12.67
12.69
12.69
12.69
12.70
12.70
12.71
12.71
12.73
12.74
8.01
8.34
8.34
8.48
8.48
8.59
8.59
9.04
9.17
9.17
9.17
9.17
9.17
9.17
9.17
9.17
9.17
9.17
9.17
9.39
10.03
10.26
10.31
10.78
10.78
10.78
10.89
11.12
11.18
11.18
11.47
11.47
11.47
11.70
11.70
: SNMG .
162
:
. 13.4
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
-2.322989
0.516637
-4.496368
0.0001
)Ln(DFgouvt
0.494342
0.091086
5.427181
0.0000
)Ln(ENSGt
0.849425
0.115444
7.357894
0.0000
)Ln(SNMGt
0.323176
0.097437
3.316774
0.0023
R-squared
0.996883
Mean dependent var
23.66928
Adjusted R-squared
0.996581
S.D. dependent var
1.731734
S.E. of regression
0.101259
Sum squared resid
0.317856
: .EViews 5.0
) (t
%99 ) (F %99

( %66.2 ).

( )..136
( )0.463 ( )0.314

.
161
:

:
:
( ) ]).[log(DEmen
( ):
( ])[log)DEgouv
])[log(ETAB ( [p] )2000
:
(
( )MCO
13.3 :
)
166
:
. 14.4
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
)ln(DEmen
20.32
20.08
20.32
20.32
18.64
19.79
20.75
19.48
19.57
19.26
19.47
19.18
19.35
22.59
22.60
22.73
22.78
22.68
22.69
22.24
22.36
22.94
23.09
23.05
23.22
23.47
23.61
23.71
23.76
23.82
24.12
23.91
24.17
24.36
24.41
)ln(DEgouv
21.77
21.96
22.16
22.60
22.88
22.88
23.20
23.38
23.51
23.86
24.18
24.48
24.60
24.55
24.69
24.83
24.53
24.58
24.63
24.75
25.07
25.54
26.02
26.08
26.42
26.43
26.36
26.29
26.36
26.57
26.95
27.03
27.23
27.30
27.68
)ln(ETAB
8.86
8.87
8.94
8.99
9.05
9.06
9.12
9.16
9.19
9.24
9.27
9.29
9.35
9.39
9.44
9.50
9.54
9.58
9.63
9.67
9.70
9.73
9.77
9.82
9.83
9.86
9.88
9.89
9.90
9.92
9.95
9.97
9.98
10.00
10.01
: : .
1..
)P (2000=100
4.27
4.43
4.70
4.92
5.32
5.83
6.53
7.67
8.54
9.35
10.72
11.42
12.32
13.10
14.46
16.49
17.46
18.49
20.19
22.06
27.77
36.58
44.07
56.86
73.80
87.60
92.59
97.17
99.70
100.00
104.20
105.66
108.39
112.25
114.09
:
. 15.4
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
-26.66886
8.038434
-3.317668
0.0023
)ln(DEgouvt
-1.136190
0.433638
-2.620134
0.0135
)Ln(ETABt
8.010432
1.746445
4.586707
0.0001
Pt
0.014883
0.007244
2.054646
0.0484
R-squared
0.844505
Mean dependent var
21.96667
Adjusted R-squared
0.829458
S.D. dependent var
1.855147
S.E. of regression
0.766116
Sum squared resid
18.19494
: .EViews 5.0

%96 . : ]) [log(ETAB
( [p] )2000 %95

.
( ]) [log)DEgouv

( )
%11.6 .
1.1
:
( )
( )1..1.
(.)0.016

1971 2005

: (
)

.
1.1

( )

:
1624 162. 1621 1666 .1662
( )

( )
.

( )1..6 1... 1666
.1..6
1.4
:

.

:

.

.
1.3
:

:

1.6
:

" "D. RICARDO ""T. MALTHUS
.

" "J. SCHUMPETER " "L. KONDRATIEFF
" "Innovation
""Destruction Catrice ( 2003 .)176-61
" "HARROD & DOMAR
( .)Steady Stat Growth

) (SWAN, 1956) (SOLOW, 1956 )(SOLOW, 1957

.

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).(GUELLEC & RALLE, 2001

) : (SCHULTZ, 1961

( )

1.2
:
) " :(SCHULTZ, 1961 ( )
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.
:
: .
1.2

.

.
1.1
:

( :)GNP
(
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.
: ""SOLOW - SWAN
""SOLOW - SWAN
.
:

:
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1.6
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:f(k) (.)forme intensive
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):(SOLOW R. M., 1972, pp. 19-24
.
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:
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.
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() )sf(k0() )f(k0 ( )k0
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( )k0
() ( )k1 " "SOLOW - SWAN
( )sy=sf(k1
(*.)k
116
:
" "SOLOW - SWAN

" "SOLOW - SWAN
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) (k 0

)
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.
112
: " "SOLOW-SWAN
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.
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n+

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112
:
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(*)y .
: " "SOLOW - SWAN

) (BARRO & SALA-I-MARTIN, 1996, p. 5
" "SOLOW - SWAN.
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)(SOLOW R. , 1957

)17-19
pp.
1996,
SALA-I-MARTIN,
&
(BARRO
).(AGHION & HOWITT, 2000, p. 12

2010
111
:
1962
2010 1962 .
: " "SOLOW - SWAN
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( (AGHION & HOWITT, 2000, pp. 16-18) : (LECAILLON, LE
) ) PAGE, OTTAVJ, & GRANGEAS, 1995, p. 97

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:
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( ) :
)
( )28
( )28 ( )25:
111
( )29 :
)
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114

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116
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( :
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( )y (
) 1960 1985
( )s (.)n
:
: ( 98 ):
(34) ln( y) 5.48 1.42 ln( s) 1.97 ln( n g ); R 0.59; s.e.e 0.69.
(35) ln( y ) 6.87 1.48 [ln( s) ln( n g ).R 0.59; s.e.e 0.69.
1.48 0.60.
1
: ( 75):
(34) ln( y) 5.36 1.31 ln( s) 2.01 ln( n g ); R 0.59; s.e.e 0.61.
(35) ln( y ) 7.10 1.43 [ln( s) ln( n g ).R 0.59; s.e.e 0.61.
1.43 0.59.
1
112
:
: ( OCDE 22):
(34) ln( y) 7.97 0.50 ln( s) 0.76 ln( n g ); R 0.01; s.e.e 0.38.
(35) ln( y ) 8.62 0.56 [ln( s) ln( n g ).R 0.06; s.e.e 0.37.
0.56 0.36.
1
" "SOLOW
:
: ( ) ) ln(s( ) ) ln(n g .
: ( ) ) ln(s( ) ) ln(n g .
: ( ) R 0.59 .
( )=1/3
.

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112
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:
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(45) ln( y ) 6.89 0.69 ln( s k ) 1.73 ln( n g ) 0.66 ln( s h );
R 0.78; s.e.e 0.51.
(46) ln( y ) 7.86 0.73 [ln( s k ) ln( n g )] 0.67 [ln( s h ) ln( n g )];
R 0.78; s.e.e 0.51.

1 0.73. 0.31.
0.28.
0.67
1
:) 75 (:
R 0.77; s.e.e 0.45.
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R 0.78; s.e.e 0.51.

1 0.71. 0.29.
0.30.
0.74
1
:) 22 (OCDE :
R 0.24; s.e.e 0.33.
(46) ln( y ) 8.71 0.29 [ln( s k ) ln( n g )] 0.76 [ln( s h ) ln( n g )];
R 0.28; s.e.e 0.32.

1 0.29. 0.14.
0.37.
0.76
1
" MANKIW, ROMER & WEIL"

:
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) ln(n g
: () )ln(sh () )ln(sk
) ln(n g .
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275.00
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225.00
200.00
150.00
125.00
100.00
75.00
50.00
25.00
0.00
2010
2000
1980
1990
: .
113
1970
-25.00 1960
175.00
:

1621 1..2

( ).

( 4. %26
) %6. %1. %1.
% 16 %1. %4. %12.6.
%3. %6.% %. %1. %11.6. %2.6.
%4..%3.
%6.
1. ( %16 )
%11.6. :
%6. %6 %26 %26 %1.. % 2.6 ( %1.. 4
: 1616 %121.26 1662
%142..6 1666 .%1.6.32
116
:
. 9.6
0 %00
12.50%
12.50%
00 %00
10
25.00%
37.50%
00 %00
17.50%
55.00%
00 %00
7.50%
62.50%
00 %00
12.50%
75.00%
00 %00
2.50%
77.50%
10
00 %00
5.00%
82.50%
00 %00
5.00%
87.50%
00 %00
5.00%
92.50%
00 %000
0.00%
92.50%
11
%000
7.50%
100.00%
40
100%
. 10.6 ()
0 %00
18
45.00%
45.00%
00 %00
12
30.00%
75.00%
00 %00
12.50%
87.50%
00 %000
5.00%
92.50%
%000
7.50%
100.00%
40
100%
112
:

( 1621 )1622 %4.22
%33.22
%42.14 .%12.61
( 1621 )1612
% ..21
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(1611 )1662
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(%111..6)
%16.13
.
( 1661 )1..2
%..23
%61.11 %11.21
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112
:
. 11.6 ( )
00000000
()%
3.7692
00000000
0.7800
00000000
-3.5454
00000000
0.6465
()%

1.6878
1.5362
-0.1699
0.0823
0.6780
1.0154
0.9163
0.5960
1.4034
-1.7716
-4.2918
-0.0318
100
100
100
100
()%

44.7781
196.9546
-4.7930
12.7266
17.9880
130.1808
25.8452
92.1883
37.2339
-227.1354
-121.0522
-4.9149

( 1..2 )11
111
:
:
:
)(LUCAS, 1988

(LUCAS,
) 1988 :
)
( : ( ).
) (LUCAS, 1988 :
)
116
:
(
( .
)(modle 1
)
:
:
: )%10( 0.1
.
16.
:
. 12.6
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
0.011637
0.001986
5.860081
0.0000
lnyst
0.001358
0.001375
0.988010
0.3294
R-squared
0.025045
Mean dependent var
0.013497
Adjusted R-squared
-0.000612
S.D. dependent var
0.003979
S.E. of regression
0.003980
Sum squared resid
0.000602
: .EViews 5.0
. 10.6
2.5
1.5
lnYSt
lnYSt
0.5
2010
2000
1980
1990
: .
161
1970
0
1960
:
. 11.6
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
lnht 0.4
lnht
0.3
0.2
0.1
2010
2000
1980
1990
1970
0
1960
: .
. 12.6
0.025
0.02
0.015
dlnht
lnht
0.01
0.005
2010
2000
1980
1990
: .
161
1970
0
1960
:
. 13.6
0.025
0.02
0.015
y = 0.0014x + 0.0116
R = 0.025
dlnht
lnht
0.01
)Linaire (lnht
0.005
0
2
2.5
1.5
0.5
: .

) (LUCAS, 1988
:
)
:
)
:
)(modle 2
164
:

%66
.
. 13.6
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
0.003489
0.001342
2.600530
0.0133
lnyst
0.040269
0.004015
10.02932
0.0000
lnht
-0.104311
0.010583
-9.856077
0.0000
R-squared
0.731082
Mean dependent var
0.013497
Adjusted R-squared
0.716545
S.D. dependent var
0.003979
S.E. of regression
0.002118
Sum squared resid
0.000166
hg
: .EViews 5.0

:
)
(
))(FLDVRI & VAN LEEUWEN, 2006
)

%66
.
)) (modle 3
163
:
. 14.6
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
-0.013607
0.002907
-4.680590
0.0000
lnyst
0.048119
0.005045
9.537154
0.0000
(lnyst)
-0.018605
0.001985
-9.374443
0.0000
R-squared
0.711136
Mean dependent var
0.013497
Adjusted R-squared
0.695522
S.D. dependent var
0.003979
S.E. of regression
0.002195
Sum squared resid
0.000178
: .EViews 5.0

[ ( )-0.104311
( ])-0.018605
"
) (LUCAS, 1988
.
. 14.6
0.025
0.02
0.015
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lnht
)Poly. (lnht
0.01
-0.0186x2
+ 0.0481x - 0.0136
R = 0.7111
=y
0.005
0
2.5
1.5
: .
166
0.5
:

.

" "
( )X( )Y

( )X( )Y

( )X( )Y

) (MIGNON, 2008, p. 306
).(ARAUJ, BRUN, & COMBES, 2008, pp. 136-146

. ()
()Unit Root
) I(0
162
:
( )d ()d
)(MIGNON, I(d
).2008, pp. 268-276

( )Augmented Dickey-Fuller test :ADF, 1981
.
( )ADF
:
: :
: :
: .
: :

:
162
:
( ) : (
( ) : (
.)
.)
( )ADF
McKinnon 1996

.
2005
(
) (
( )ADF %1 %5 %10
:
161
:
. 15.6
ADF

0.6027
0.0007
-0.213704
-5.365928
lnrgdpwork
0.8077
*prob
-0.800037
Test Statistic values

Test critical values at:
-2.627238
-4.273277
-3.615588
1% level
-1.949856
-3.557759
-2.941145
5% level
-1.611469
-3.212361
-2.609066
10% level
: )*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.( EViews 5.0

. 16 . 6
ADF

0.3934
0.9815
0.0013
-0.730666
-0.455507
-4.37606
lnys
*prob
Test Statistic values
Test critical values at:
-2.627238
-4.219126
-3.615588
1% level
-1.949856
-3.533083
-2.941145
5% level
-1.611469
-3.198312
-2.609066
10% level
: )*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.( EViews 5.0

166
:
( I).

.

( )Johansan Cointegration Test,1988, 1991, 1995
()
( )Maximum Likelihood :
( )Trace test " " ( ) test :
)
) (
()
( )q
( )q ()r
( Maximal
)Eigen value test :

)

( )r
(.)r+1
( )lnrgdpwork
( )lnYS 1621 1..2
4..
:
). %5
)
. 17 . 6
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace)
Prob.**
0.05
Critical Value
Trace
Statistic
Eigenvalue
Hypothesized
No. of CE(s)
0.0000
0.0073
15.49471
3.841466
75.61536
7.197558
0.826972
0.168524
None *
At most 1 *
Trace test indicates 2 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level

* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Maximum Eigenvalue)
Prob.**
0.05
Critical Value
Max-Eigen
Statistic
Eigenvalue
Hypothesized
No. of CE(s)
0.0000
0.0073
14.26460
3.841466
68.41780
7.197558
0.826972
0.168524
None *
At most 1 *
Max-eigenvalue test indicates 2 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level

* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values
EViews 5.0 :
) lnrgdpwork(
: 1..2 1621 ) lnYS(

:
4.1
:

:
:
:
)
:
: .
4.1
:

) (TOPEL, 1999) (COHEN & SOTO, 2007
)
( :
)
:
)
).(COHEN & SOTO, 2007
)(modle 4
(1621)1..2
( )1..6
( )1..6
) (HESTON, SUMMERS, & ATEN, 2009
(16 23) ) (COHEN & SOTO, 2007 :
4.4
:

(( )0.247 )
( )=0.33

( )0.495
(1968 . )2007
. 18.6
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
9.981242
0.146690
68.04298
0.0000
-0.039204
0.020036
-1.956641
0.0582
Lnskt
0.495649
0.067875
7.302399
0.0000
YSt
0.247466
0.136306
1.815513
0.0778
R-squared
0.759433
Mean dependent var
9.784612
Adjusted R-squared
0.739386
S.D. dependent var
0.152928
S.E. of regression
0.078071
Sum squared resid
0.219421
: .EViews 5.0
4.3

()

(1968 )2007 .

%2.78 % 1972 %268.75 .1985
()lnrgdpwork
( )lnYS 1621 1..2
.%5

( )0.247
( )=0.33

( )0.495
( 1968 .)2007
4.6

( ).
) (SCHULTZ, 1961, pp. 9-11
:

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( )
"). (SCHULTZ, 1961

:

4.2
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-

( )

:

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.
4.2
:

.
( )

.

.
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:

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( )

.

.

( )162.

.
4.6
:
:
:

.

:

:
1621 162. 1621 1666 .1662
( )

(
)

( )1..6 1... 1666
.1..6
41.
:

.

:

.

.

:

) (LUCAS, 1988

(BARRO R. , 1991) (LUCAS, 1988) :
)(MANKIW, ROMER, & WEIL, 1992
411
& (BASSANINI
:
) (COHEN & SOTO, 2007) SCARPETTA, 2001
)PRITCHETT( (BENHABIB & SPIEGEL, 1994
(ISLAM, 1995) )1666

1%6
&
(DEBANDE
)VANDENBERGHE, 2008, pp. 68-69

1968 2007
:

%2.78 % 1972
%268.75 1985

( )lnrgdpwork ( )lnYS
1621 1..2
%5

411
:
( )0.247

( )0.495
(1968.)2007

(
) ( )
.

( )

.
414

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I ..................................................................................
II ............................................................................
III................................................................................
IV .................................................................
V ..................................................................
VI .........................................................................
IX ..........................................................................
XIV .....................................................................
XX .....................................................................
..................................................................
: :
1 ....... ................................
: 3 ........................
4 ..............................................................................
: 4 ..................................................
44.
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: 3 ......................................
: 3 ..............................................
: 6 ...................................
: 2 ................................
: 6 ..........................................
: 6 .......................
: 14 ......
: 13 ......
: 16 .....
: 16 ............................
: 12 ..........................
: 11 ................................
: 20 .................................................
: 11 .........................................
: 11 .......................................
: 14 ............................
: 13 ....................... :
: 16 ................................
: 11 .................................
: 11 .......SCHULTZ
441
:
: BECKER
41 .....................................................................................
: 34 .....................................
: 43 .....................
: 43 ..............
: 46 ..................................................
: 42 ............................................
: "42 ............... "la theorie des attitudes
: "41 ..................... "La thorie du signal
: "46 ..................... "La thorie du filtre
34 ............................................................
: 45...........
45 ..................................................................................
: : 46 .......................................
: 32 .
: 32 ...............................
: 36 .............................
: 61 ..............................
: 63 ..................................
: 63 .....................
: 62 ...........................
441
:
: 62 ....................
: 60 .............................
:
(2. ............................................................................. )OCDE
:
(21 .............................................................. )OCDE
:
( )OCDE 24 ........................................
:
(21 ........................................................................ )WEI
: (21 .... )WEI
: (21)WEI
:
26 ....................................................................
: 79 ....................
: 26 .............................................
: 16 ................................ 2005-1990
94 ............................................................
444
:
: 96 ................................
: 98..................
61 ............................................................................
: 99 ...............................
: 66 ...........................................
: 66 ................................................
: 1.1 ...................................
: 1.4 ..........................
: 1.6 ..........................................
: 1.1 ...................
: 1.1 ...............
: 111 ................
: 113 .........................
: 115 ........................
: () 116 ............
: (112 ........................... :)1976 -1962
: (111 .............................. )2003-1976
: ( -2003 ) 116 ......................
443
:
: 11. ........................
: 113 .............
: 113 ......................
: 116 ...................
: 112 .......................
: 112 ......................
: 14. ................
:
132 ...................................................................................
: 141 ..................
: () 141 ...
: 141 .........................
: 141 ........
: 13. ...............
: 13. .....
: 133 ....
: 132 ...............
16. .........................................................
446
: :
152 .................................................
161 ..........................................................................
: 153 ................
: (1963164 ................................ )1970
: (1971161 .................................)1995
: 1996( :123 .............................. )2007
: 169 ..............................
: 126
: 126 ...........
: 121 .......
: 126 ..........
: 11. ..
: 185 .......................................
: 116 ...............................
:
111 ...............................................................................
:
111 ....................................................
:
164 .............................................................
442
:
: 166 .........
:
162 ............................................................................
:
166 ............................................................................
1.4 ..........................................................
:
: 205 ..... ................................
:
208 ..........................................................
1.1 ..........................................................................
: 209 .................................
: "1.6 ............... "SOLOW - SWAN
: 1.6 ......................................
: "11. ...... "SOLOW - SWAN
: " "SOLOW - SWAN 111 ....................
: " "SOLOW - SWAN
111 ...................................................................................
: " "SOLOW 113 .......................
: " "SOLOW-SWAN 112
442
:
: " "SOLOW - SWAN 111 ...........
: " "SOLOW - SWAN
116 ..............................................................................
: 11. .................................
: " "SOLOW- SWAN
111 ..............................................................................
: 224 ....................
: "113 ............ "SOLOW-SWAN
: "113 ............"SOLOW-SWAN
: "112 ..... "SOLOW-SWAN
: 111 .................
: 111 .................................................
: ( )116 ......................
: 141 ........................
: 143 .........
: 143 ................
: 142 .................
: 239 .....................
: (LUCAS,
)13. .............................................................................. 1988

: "13. ......................... "R. E. LUCAS
: )131 ................ (LUCAS, 1988
441
:
: )133 ............................ (LUCAS, 1988
: )16. ................. (LUCAS, 1988
: )16. ....... (LUCAS, 1988
: 161 .......................................
: "164 "LUCAS
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: 255 ....
166 ..........................................................................
: 256 .........
: ( ) 161 .....................
: 166 .......................................
:
12. ........................................................................
: 123 ......................................
: (126 ... )Ad hoc growth equations
: 122 ................................
: 126 ....................
: 273 .....
:
124 .............................................................................
: 126 ...................................
446
:
: 126 .........................................................
: 116 ......................................
: :
289 ......................................................................................
:
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:
162 ..............................................................
: 4.1 ..........
4.6 .......................................................
306 ..............................................................
314 ................................................
: 413 ..............................................................
: 412 ...........................................................
: 411 ........................................................
330 ..............................................................................
43.

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Keywords: Education, human capital,

" "SOLOW - SWAN

(DENISON, La mesure de la contribution de l'enseignement a la

)croissance conomique, 1964

An Analytical Approach, 1967)...

(HOUSSAYE, 2000, p. 35):

) 1993, p. VIII ( )MILL, J.-S.

)1960, 1961, 1963, 1983

" " BECKER G. S.

( :)Savoir pour quoi

) (HANUSHEK & KIMKO, 2000

) (BECKER, 1993, pp. 8-29

).(JAROUSSE & MINGAT, 1986

: ""la theorie des attitudes

: ""La thorie du signal

: ""La thorie du filtre

" Le modle de concurrence pour

: "l'emploi ) (THUROW, 1975

) (BOURDIEU & PASSERON, 1970

(OCDE, 2007a, pp. 212-213):

(OCDE, 2007a, p. 215):

UNESCO/UIS WEI (www.uis.unesco.org/publications/wei2007).

UNESCO/UIS WEI (www.uis.unesco.org/publications/wei2007).

. 6.2 1960 1985

1960 1975, 1977, pp. 45-50).

c- (UNESCO, 2000, p. 118).

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34800000 32854159 30506054 25282515 18811202 13746184 11923001 11209844

24.9% 77.0% 124.9% 215.7% 369.2% 117.2% 106.8%

).(ONS, 1985, pp. 69-70

139783 132372 128338 121448 120552 108841 101364 91298 97619

433384 323432 338797 333501 303564 269625

. 2.4 ( 1963 ) 1970

. 1.4 ( 1963 ) 1970

327900.0 195300.0 140012.0 121400.0 113000.0 108000.0 128000.0 116986.4 105735.0

. 2.4 ( 1971 ) 1995

1652698.3 1439548.8 1255273.0 1200000.0 1141685.9 1053366.2

2294050.4 2115879.3 1047710.0

. 7.4 ( 2000 ) 2007

12. ( 2000 ( ) 2007)

669424.0 548978.0 503600.0

33.5% 188.0% -18.8% 104.2% 101.4%

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

: 2000 2006 2005 2007 .

5.0% 2.2% 0.9%

. 10.4 ( 1996 ) 2005

)(HECKMAN, LOCHNER, & TODD, 2006

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var

Sum squared resid

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var

Sum squared resid

: " "SOLOW - SWAN

: " "SOLOW - SWAN

: " "SOLOW - SWAN

).(AGHION & HOWITT, 2000, p. 12

: " "SOLOW - SWAN

" " SOLOW ()6

" "R. M. SOLOW ( )A ( )L "

) ) PAGE, OTTAVJ, & GRANGEAS, 1995, p. 97

: " "SOLOW- SWAN

" "SOLOW - SWAN