Q.1: a. P(rejecting claim when p = .8) = B(15;25,.8) = .017 b. P(not rejecting claim when p = .7) = P(X 16 when p = .

.7) = 1 - B(15;25,.7) = 1 - .189 = .811; for p = .6, this probability is = 1 - B(15;25,.6) = 1 - .575 = .425. c. The probability of rejecting the claim when p = .8 becomes B(14;25,.8) = .006 , smaller than in a above. However, the probabilities of b above increase to .902 and .586 , respectively. ---Q.2: Hi, The probabilities assigned were P(B)=.20 P(S)=.40 P(BnS)=.12 a.)What is the probability of an individual purchasing the product given that th e individual recalls seeing the advertisement? Does seeing the advertisement inc rease the probability that the individual will purchase the product? As a decisi on maker, would you recommend continuing the advertisement(assuming that the cos t is reasonable)? .12 bought out of the .40 who remember seeing the ad. .12/.40 = 30% bought <==ANSWER When only 30% were persuaded to buy their soap, the company may want to reconsid er investing their money in these ads.

b.)Assume the individuals who do not purchase the company's soap product buy fro m its competitors.What would be your estimate of the company's market share? 20% is the probability of someone buying their soap, from P(B) = .20. Would you expect that continuing the advertisement will increase the company's m arket share? Not likely Why or why not? While overall market share was 20%, the 30% of people remembering the ads who bought the soap does show an increase in p urchasing, so it was effective. But it could have been a LOT more effective, so I'd explore other ideas. c.)The company also tested another advertisement and assigned it values of P(S)= .30 and P(BnS)=.10. What is P(B/S) for this other advertisement? .10/.30 = 33% b ought Which advertisement seems to have had the bigger effect on customer purchases? T he new ad seems to have a slightly bigger effect on customers.