SW318 Social Work Statistics Slide 1

Five-step model for Testing Hypotheses

The five-step model used for all hypothesis tests contains the following steps: Step 1. Evaluating assumptions.

Step 2. Stating the research hypothesis and the null hypothesis and setting alpha
Step 3. Selecting the sampling distribution and the test statistic Step 4. Computing the test statistic Step 5. Making a decision about hypotheses

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Evaluating Assumptions

All hypothesis tests assume the sample is representative of the population assured by random sampling Assumptions about the distribution of variables. e.g. normality, equal variances Assumptions about sample size, e.g. no cell with expected frequency less than 5

SW318 Social Work Statistics Slide 3

Hypotheses

The research hypothesis states relationship we think is true, e.g. mean of one group higher than other, or two variables are related The null hypothesis contradicts research hypothesis, e.g. means of all groups are the same, or two variables are independent. Usually a statement of equality or no difference. Both hypotheses are statements about the population that will be tested on sample data.

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Alpha

Alpha is the probability that we could make an error in rejecting the null hypothesis and supporting the research hypothesis. Alpha is the risk that we will make a Type I error a true null hypothesis is rejected. We can also make an error when the null hypothesis is false, but we fail to reject it a Type II error. When alpha is higher, it is easier to reject the null hypothesis and the chances that we may be making a mistake are larger.

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Alpha

We choose alpha based on the consequences of making a Type I error or a Type II error. If rejection of null hypothesis leads to action with serious side effects, we set alpha lower (making it harder to reject null) so that we do not risk the side effects too easily. Type I error is less likely. If rejection of the null hypothesis lead to an action that may be helpful and has no serious side effects, we set alpha higher (making it easier to reject null) so that we take advantage of helpful action. Type II error is more likely.

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Selecting Test Statistic

We choose the statistical test based on the research question and the conformity of the variables to the assumptions for the test. First, we eliminate statistical tests for which we cannot satisfy the level of measurement requirements and other assumptions. Second, we choose the statistical test that treats the variables at the higher level of measurement. For example, we could test the relationship between two ordinal variables with either regression analysis or with a chi-square test of independence. We would choose the regression analysis, because the variables are treated as interval rather than nominal.

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Making a decision based on test statistic

If the p-value of the test statistic is less than or equal to alpha, we reject the null hypothesis and find that our research hypothesis is supported.

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Testing Hypotheses Evaluating Assumptions

Independent samples t-test Level of measurement Dependent: Interval (ordinal) Chi-square test of independence Dependent: Nominal (dichotomous, ordinal, grouped interval) Independent: Nominal (dichotomous, ordinal, grouped interval) Minimum sample size: no expected frequency < 5 One-way ANOVA Dependent: Interval (ordinal) Hypothesis test of r2 Dependent: Interval (ordinal)

Independent: (dichotomous)

Independent: Nominal (dichotomous, ordinal, grouped interval) Normality Equal variances

Independent: Interval (ordinal)

Assumptions

Normality Equal variances

Normality Linearity Equal variances

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Testing Hypotheses: Hypotheses and Alpha

Independent samples t-test Null Hypothesis Group means are equal Chi-square test of independence Variables are independent (Expected frequencies = observed frequencies) Variables are related (Expected frequencies <> observed frequencies) One-way ANOVA Means of all groups are equal Hypothesis test of r2 Variables are not related (r2 = 0)

Research Hypothesis

Group means are different

Mean of one or more groups is different

Variables are related (r2 > 0)

Alpha

0.05, unless otherwise indicated

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Testing Hypotheses: Sampling Distribution and Test Statistic

Independent samples t-test Sampling distribution Test statistic t t Chi-square test of independence X2 X2 One-way ANOVA F F Hypothesis test of r2 F F

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Testing Hypotheses: Compute Test Statistic

Independent samples t-test Compute Test Statistic Chi-square test of independence One-way ANOVA Hypothesis test of r2

Run SPSS, identify test statistic and p-value

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Testing Hypotheses: Decision about Hypotheses

Independent samples t-test P-value <= alpha Chi-square test of independence One-way ANOVA Hypothesis test of r2

Reject null hypothesis (risk type I error) Support research hypothesis

P-value > alpha

Fail to reject null hypothesis (risk type II error) No support for research hypothesis

SW318 Social Work Statistics Slide 13

Testing Hypotheses: Post Hoc Tests

Chi-square test of independence supports the existence of relationship between variables. It does not tell us about strength or direction of relationship, i.e. which cells produce the difference. For this we use post hoc test of standardized residuals. One-way ANOVA identifies that one or means are different, but does not indicate pattern of differences between groups. To identify which means are different from one another, we use a post hoc test, such as Tukey HSD test.