Excersise 7-1: ABC Corporation

1999
3000
4000
3000
5000
5000
8000
3000
8000
12000
12000
16000
10000
89000

2000
2000
5000
5000
3000
4000
6000
7000
10000
15000
15000
18000
8000
98000

2001
5000
4000
4000
2000
5000
7000
10000
14000
16000
16000
20000
12000
115000

2002
5000
2000
3000
2000
7000
6000
8000
10000
20000
20000
22000
8000
113000

p = 12

(even)

Monthly Demand ABC Corporation (Jan '98 - Dec '02)

25000

20000

15000
Sales

1998
2000
3000
3000
3000
4000
6000
7000
6000
10000
12000
14000
8000
78000

Static Method for Forecasting

Year

Month

Period

1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1999
1999
1999
1999
1999
1999
1999
1999
1999
1999
1999
1999
2000
2000
2000
2000
2000
2000
2000
2000
2000
2000
2000
2000
2001
2001
2001
2001
2001
2001
2001
2001
2001
2001
2001
2001
2002
2002
2002
2002
2002
2002
2002
2002
2002
2002
2002
2002
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003

JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72

CR - 3/1/2014 9:41 AM

Dt
Deseaso
(based
nalized
on
Demand Demand
Seasonal
regressio Factor St Forecast
Dt
Dt
2000
6068
0.33
2588
3000
6138
0.49
2913
3000
6208
0.48
2872
3000
6278
0.48
2500
4000
6348
0.63
3944
6000
6419
0.93
5356
7000
6542
6489
1.08
5534
6000
6625
6559
0.91
7551
10000
6667
6629
1.51
11489
12000
6750
6700
1.79
11913
14000
6875
6770
2.07
14377
8000
7000
6840
1.17
7488
3000
6917
6910
0.43
2948
4000
6833
6981
0.57
3313
3000
7000
7051
0.43
3262
5000
7083
7121
0.70
2836
5000
7167
7191
0.70
4468
8000
7333
7262
1.10
6059
3000
7375
7332
0.41
6253
8000
7375
7402
1.08
8521
12000
7500
7472
1.61
12950
12000
7500
7543
1.59
13411
16000
7375
7613
2.10
16167
10000
7250
7683
1.30
8411
2000
7333
7753
0.26
3308
5000
7583
7824
0.64
3713
5000
7792
7894
0.63
3652
3000
8042
7964
0.38
3171
4000
8250
8034
0.50
4992
6000
8250
8105
0.74
6762
7000
8292
8175
0.86
6972
10000
8375
8245
1.21
9491
15000
8292
8315
1.80
14411
15000
8208
8386
1.79
14910
18000
8208
8456
2.13
17958
8000
8292
8526
0.94
9334
5000
8458
8596
0.58
3667
4000
8750
8667
0.46
4113
4000
8958
8737
0.46
4042
2000
9042
8807
0.23
3507
5000
9167
8877
0.56
5516
7000
9417
8948
0.78
7466
10000
9583
9018
1.11
7691
14000
9500
9088
1.54
10462
16000
9375
9158
1.75
15871
16000
9333
9229
1.73
16409
20000
9417
9299
2.15
19748
12000
9458
9369
1.28
10256
5000
9333
9439
0.53
4027
2000
9083
9510
0.21
4513
3000
9083
9580
0.31
4432
2000
9417
9650
0.21
3843
7000
9667
9720
0.72
6039
6000
9583
9791
0.61
8169
8000
9861
0.81
8410
10000
9931
1.01
11432
20000
10001
2.00
17332
20000
10072
1.99
17908
22000
10142
2.17
21538
8000
10212
0.78
11179
Forecasts
4386
4913
4822
4178
6563
8872
9129
12403
18793
19407
23328
12102

10000
Et
588
-87
-128
-500
-56
-644
-1466
1551
1489
-87
377
-512
-52
-687
262
-2164
-532
-1941
3253
521
950
1411
167
-1589
1308
-1287
-1348
171
992
762
-28
-509
-589
-90
-42
1334
-1333
113
42
1507
516
466
-2309
-3538
-129
409
-252
-1744
-973
2513
1432
1843
-961
2169
410
1432
-2668
-2092
-462
3179

At
588
87
128
500
56
644
1466
1551
1489
87
377
512
52
687
262
2164
532
1941
3253
521
950
1411
167
1589
1308
1287
1348
171
992
762
28
509
589
90
42
1334
1333
113
42
1507
516
466
2309
3538
129
409
252
1744
973
2513
1432
1843
961
2169
410
1432
2668
2092
462
3179

bias

MSE

MAD

588
501
373
-127
-183
-827
-2292
-742
747
660
1037
525
473
-214
48
-2117
-2648
-4589
-1336
-815
135
1546
1713
124
1432
145
-1203
-1032
-40
722
694
186
-404
-493
-536
798
-535
-422
-380
1127
1642
2108
-201
-3739
-3868
-3459
-3711
-5454
-6427
-3915
-2483
-640
-1601
568
978
2410
-257
-2349
-2812
368

346273
176952
123433
155075
124678
173086
455240
698911
867560
781567
723454
685002
632517
621082
584250
840507
807704
972128
1478005
1417679
1393120
1420351
1359815
1408374
1420438
1429544
1443909
1393389
1379266
1352665
1309056
1276231
1248087
1211615
1177049
1193763
1209503
1178008
1147848
1175927
1153731
1131425
1229085
1485675
1453028
1425079
1396112
1430356
1420490
1518356
1528783
1564679
1552568
1610944
1584712
1593039
1689953
1736276
1710467
1850424

588
338
268
326
272
334
496
628
723
660
634
624
580
587
566
666
658
729
862
845
850
875
845
876
893
908
924
898
901
896
868
857
849
826
804
819
833
814
794
812
805
796
832
893
876
866
853
872
874
906
917
934
935
958
948
957
987
1006
996
1033
1291

Estimate of standard deviation of forecast error:

Percent
Error

MAPE

TS

29
3
4
17
1
11
21
26
15
1
3
6
2
17
9
43
11
24
108
7
8
12
1
16
65
26
27
6
25
13
0
5
4
1
0
17
27
3
1
75
10
7
23
25
1
3
1
15
19
126
48
92
14
36
5
14
13
10
2
40

29
16
12
13
11
11
12
14
14
13
12
11
11
11
11
13
13
13
18
18
17
17
16
16
18
19
19
19
19
19
18
18
17
17
16
16
16
16
16
17
17
17
17
17
17
16
16
16
16
18
19
20
20
21
20
20
20
20
20
20

1.00
1.48
1.39
-0.39
-0.67
-2.48
-4.63
-1.18
1.03
1.00
1.64
0.84
0.82
-0.36
0.08
-3.18
-4.03
-6.29
-1.55
-0.96
0.16
1.77
2.03
0.14
1.60
0.16
-1.30
-1.15
-0.04
0.81
0.80
0.22
-0.48
-0.60
-0.67
0.97
-0.64
-0.52
-0.48
1.39
2.04
2.65
-0.24
-4.19
-4.41
-3.99
-4.35
-6.26
-7.36
-4.32
-2.71
-0.69
-1.71
0.59
1.03
2.52
-0.26
-2.34
-2.82
0.36

5000

Month

Deseasonalized Demand Regression

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.97493
R Square
0.95048
Adjusted R Square
0.9494
Standard Error
226.901
Observations
48
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

1
46
47

SS
4.5E+07
2368277
4.8E+07

MS
4.5E+07
51484.3

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
5997.26 79.1934 75.7293
70.2458 2.36407 29.7139

Intercept
X Variable 1

F
Significance F
882.917 1.1E-31

P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%
6.1E-50 5837.85 6156.67 5837.85 6156.67
1.1E-31 65.4872 75.0044 65.4872 75.0044

Seasonal Factors
Average of Seasonal Factor St
Month
Total
JAN
0.427
FEB
0.475
MAR
0.463
APR
0.398
MAY
0.621
JUN
0.834
JUL
0.853
AUG
1.151
SEP
1.733
OCT
1.778
NOV
2.124
DEC
1.095

Bias
3000
2000
1000
0
-1000 1
bias

Sales
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
Total

10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58

-2000
-3000
-4000
-5000
-6000
-7000
Period

214253943.xls.ms_office - Values

Excersise 7-1: ABC Corporation

1998
2000
3000
3000
3000
4000
6000
7000
6000
10000
12000
14000
8000
=SUM(C4:C15)

1999
3000
4000
3000
5000
5000
8000
3000
8000
12000
12000
16000
10000
=SUM(D4:D15)

2000
2000
5000
5000
3000
4000
6000
7000
10000
15000
15000
18000
8000
=SUM(E4:E15)

2001
5000
4000
4000
2000
5000
7000
10000
14000
16000
16000
20000
12000
=SUM(F4:F15)

2002
5000
2000
3000
2000
7000
6000
8000
10000
20000
20000
22000
8000
=SUM(G4:G15)

p = 12

Monthly Demand ABC Corporation (Jan '98 - Dec '02)

(even)

25000

20000

15000
Sales

Sales
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
Total

10000

CR - 3/1/2014 9:41 AM

Month
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC

Period
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72

Demand Dt
2000
3000
3000
3000
4000
6000
7000
6000
10000
12000
14000
8000
3000
4000
3000
5000
5000
8000
3000
8000
12000
12000
16000
10000
2000
5000
5000
3000
4000
6000
7000
10000
15000
15000
18000
8000
5000
4000
4000
2000
5000
7000
10000
14000
16000
16000
20000
12000
5000
2000
3000
2000
7000
6000
8000
10000
20000
20000
22000
8000

Deseasonalized
Demand Dt

Dt (based on

regression)
Seasonal Factor St
=$T$50+C19*$T$51 =D19/F19
=$T$50+C20*$T$51 =D20/F20
=$T$50+C21*$T$51 =D21/F21
=$T$50+C22*$T$51 =D22/F22
=$T$50+C23*$T$51 =D23/F23
=$T$50+C24*$T$51 =D24/F24
=(D19+D31+2*SUM(D20:D30))/(2*12)
=$T$50+C25*$T$51 =D25/F25
=(D20+D32+2*SUM(D21:D31))/(2*12)
=$T$50+C26*$T$51 =D26/F26
=(D21+D33+2*SUM(D22:D32))/(2*12)
=$T$50+C27*$T$51 =D27/F27
=(D22+D34+2*SUM(D23:D33))/(2*12)
=$T$50+C28*$T$51 =D28/F28
=(D23+D35+2*SUM(D24:D34))/(2*12)
=$T$50+C29*$T$51 =D29/F29
=(D24+D36+2*SUM(D25:D35))/(2*12)
=$T$50+C30*$T$51 =D30/F30
=(D25+D37+2*SUM(D26:D36))/(2*12)
=$T$50+C31*$T$51 =D31/F31
=(D26+D38+2*SUM(D27:D37))/(2*12)
=$T$50+C32*$T$51 =D32/F32
=(D27+D39+2*SUM(D28:D38))/(2*12)
=$T$50+C33*$T$51 =D33/F33
=(D28+D40+2*SUM(D29:D39))/(2*12)
=$T$50+C34*$T$51 =D34/F34
=(D29+D41+2*SUM(D30:D40))/(2*12)
=$T$50+C35*$T$51 =D35/F35
=(D30+D42+2*SUM(D31:D41))/(2*12)
=$T$50+C36*$T$51 =D36/F36
=(D31+D43+2*SUM(D32:D42))/(2*12)
=$T$50+C37*$T$51 =D37/F37
=(D32+D44+2*SUM(D33:D43))/(2*12)
=$T$50+C38*$T$51 =D38/F38
=(D33+D45+2*SUM(D34:D44))/(2*12)
=$T$50+C39*$T$51 =D39/F39
=(D34+D46+2*SUM(D35:D45))/(2*12)
=$T$50+C40*$T$51 =D40/F40
=(D35+D47+2*SUM(D36:D46))/(2*12)
=$T$50+C41*$T$51 =D41/F41
=(D36+D48+2*SUM(D37:D47))/(2*12)
=$T$50+C42*$T$51 =D42/F42
=(D37+D49+2*SUM(D38:D48))/(2*12)
=$T$50+C43*$T$51 =D43/F43
=(D38+D50+2*SUM(D39:D49))/(2*12)
=$T$50+C44*$T$51 =D44/F44
=(D39+D51+2*SUM(D40:D50))/(2*12)
=$T$50+C45*$T$51 =D45/F45
=(D40+D52+2*SUM(D41:D51))/(2*12)
=$T$50+C46*$T$51 =D46/F46
=(D41+D53+2*SUM(D42:D52))/(2*12)
=$T$50+C47*$T$51 =D47/F47
=(D42+D54+2*SUM(D43:D53))/(2*12)
=$T$50+C48*$T$51 =D48/F48
=(D43+D55+2*SUM(D44:D54))/(2*12)
=$T$50+C49*$T$51 =D49/F49
=(D44+D56+2*SUM(D45:D55))/(2*12)
=$T$50+C50*$T$51 =D50/F50
=(D45+D57+2*SUM(D46:D56))/(2*12)
=$T$50+C51*$T$51 =D51/F51
=(D46+D58+2*SUM(D47:D57))/(2*12)
=$T$50+C52*$T$51 =D52/F52
=(D47+D59+2*SUM(D48:D58))/(2*12)
=$T$50+C53*$T$51 =D53/F53
=(D48+D60+2*SUM(D49:D59))/(2*12)
=$T$50+C54*$T$51 =D54/F54
=(D49+D61+2*SUM(D50:D60))/(2*12)
=$T$50+C55*$T$51 =D55/F55
=(D50+D62+2*SUM(D51:D61))/(2*12)
=$T$50+C56*$T$51 =D56/F56
=(D51+D63+2*SUM(D52:D62))/(2*12)
=$T$50+C57*$T$51 =D57/F57
=(D52+D64+2*SUM(D53:D63))/(2*12)
=$T$50+C58*$T$51 =D58/F58
=(D53+D65+2*SUM(D54:D64))/(2*12)
=$T$50+C59*$T$51 =D59/F59
=(D54+D66+2*SUM(D55:D65))/(2*12)
=$T$50+C60*$T$51 =D60/F60
=(D55+D67+2*SUM(D56:D66))/(2*12)
=$T$50+C61*$T$51 =D61/F61
=(D56+D68+2*SUM(D57:D67))/(2*12)
=$T$50+C62*$T$51 =D62/F62
=(D57+D69+2*SUM(D58:D68))/(2*12)
=$T$50+C63*$T$51 =D63/F63
=(D58+D70+2*SUM(D59:D69))/(2*12)
=$T$50+C64*$T$51 =D64/F64
=(D59+D71+2*SUM(D60:D70))/(2*12)
=$T$50+C65*$T$51 =D65/F65
=(D60+D72+2*SUM(D61:D71))/(2*12)
=$T$50+C66*$T$51 =D66/F66
=(D61+D73+2*SUM(D62:D72))/(2*12)
=$T$50+C67*$T$51 =D67/F67
=(D62+D74+2*SUM(D63:D73))/(2*12)
=$T$50+C68*$T$51 =D68/F68
=(D63+D75+2*SUM(D64:D74))/(2*12)
=$T$50+C69*$T$51 =D69/F69
=(D64+D76+2*SUM(D65:D75))/(2*12)
=$T$50+C70*$T$51 =D70/F70
=(D65+D77+2*SUM(D66:D76))/(2*12)
=$T$50+C71*$T$51 =D71/F71
=(D66+D78+2*SUM(D67:D77))/(2*12)
=$T$50+C72*$T$51 =D72/F72
=$T$50+C73*$T$51 =D73/F73
=$T$50+C74*$T$51 =D74/F74
=$T$50+C75*$T$51 =D75/F75
=$T$50+C76*$T$51 =D76/F76
=$T$50+C77*$T$51 =D77/F77
=$T$50+C78*$T$51 =D78/F78
Forecasts

Forecast
Et
=($T$50+C19*$T$51)*$T$57=H19-D19
=($T$50+C20*$T$51)*$T$58=H20-D20
=($T$50+C21*$T$51)*$T$59=H21-D21
=($T$50+C22*$T$51)*$T$60=H22-D22
=($T$50+C23*$T$51)*$T$61=H23-D23
=($T$50+C24*$T$51)*$T$62=H24-D24
=($T$50+C25*$T$51)*$T$63=H25-D25
=($T$50+C26*$T$51)*$T$64=H26-D26
=($T$50+C27*$T$51)*$T$65=H27-D27
=($T$50+C28*$T$51)*$T$66=H28-D28
=($T$50+C29*$T$51)*$T$67=H29-D29
=($T$50+C30*$T$51)*$T$68=H30-D30
=($T$50+C31*$T$51)*$T$57=H31-D31
=($T$50+C32*$T$51)*$T$58=H32-D32
=($T$50+C33*$T$51)*$T$59=H33-D33
=($T$50+C34*$T$51)*$T$60=H34-D34
=($T$50+C35*$T$51)*$T$61=H35-D35
=($T$50+C36*$T$51)*$T$62=H36-D36
=($T$50+C37*$T$51)*$T$63=H37-D37
=($T$50+C38*$T$51)*$T$64=H38-D38
=($T$50+C39*$T$51)*$T$65=H39-D39
=($T$50+C40*$T$51)*$T$66=H40-D40
=($T$50+C41*$T$51)*$T$67=H41-D41
=($T$50+C42*$T$51)*$T$68=H42-D42
=($T$50+C43*$T$51)*$T$57=H43-D43
=($T$50+C44*$T$51)*$T$58=H44-D44
=($T$50+C45*$T$51)*$T$59=H45-D45
=($T$50+C46*$T$51)*$T$60=H46-D46
=($T$50+C47*$T$51)*$T$61=H47-D47
=($T$50+C48*$T$51)*$T$62=H48-D48
=($T$50+C49*$T$51)*$T$63=H49-D49
=($T$50+C50*$T$51)*$T$64=H50-D50
=($T$50+C51*$T$51)*$T$65=H51-D51
=($T$50+C52*$T$51)*$T$66=H52-D52
=($T$50+C53*$T$51)*$T$67=H53-D53
=($T$50+C54*$T$51)*$T$68=H54-D54
=($T$50+C55*$T$51)*$T$57=H55-D55
=($T$50+C56*$T$51)*$T$58=H56-D56
=($T$50+C57*$T$51)*$T$59=H57-D57
=($T$50+C58*$T$51)*$T$60=H58-D58
=($T$50+C59*$T$51)*$T$61=H59-D59
=($T$50+C60*$T$51)*$T$62=H60-D60
=($T$50+C61*$T$51)*$T$63=H61-D61
=($T$50+C62*$T$51)*$T$64=H62-D62
=($T$50+C63*$T$51)*$T$65=H63-D63
=($T$50+C64*$T$51)*$T$66=H64-D64
=($T$50+C65*$T$51)*$T$67=H65-D65
=($T$50+C66*$T$51)*$T$68=H66-D66
=($T$50+C67*$T$51)*$T$57=H67-D67
=($T$50+C68*$T$51)*$T$58=H68-D68
=($T$50+C69*$T$51)*$T$59=H69-D69
=($T$50+C70*$T$51)*$T$60=H70-D70
=($T$50+C71*$T$51)*$T$61=H71-D71
=($T$50+C72*$T$51)*$T$62=H72-D72
=($T$50+C73*$T$51)*$T$63=H73-D73
=($T$50+C74*$T$51)*$T$64=H74-D74
=($T$50+C75*$T$51)*$T$65=H75-D75
=($T$50+C76*$T$51)*$T$66=H76-D76
=($T$50+C77*$T$51)*$T$67=H77-D77
=($T$50+C78*$T$51)*$T$68=H78-D78
=($T$50+C79*$T$51)*$T$57
=($T$50+C80*$T$51)*$T$58
=($T$50+C81*$T$51)*$T$59
=($T$50+C82*$T$51)*$T$60
=($T$50+C83*$T$51)*$T$61
=($T$50+C84*$T$51)*$T$62
=($T$50+C85*$T$51)*$T$63
=($T$50+C86*$T$51)*$T$64
=($T$50+C87*$T$51)*$T$65
=($T$50+C88*$T$51)*$T$66
=($T$50+C89*$T$51)*$T$67
=($T$50+C90*$T$51)*$T$68

At
=ABS(J19)
=ABS(J20)
=ABS(J21)
=ABS(J22)
=ABS(J23)
=ABS(J24)
=ABS(J25)
=ABS(J26)
=ABS(J27)
=ABS(J28)
=ABS(J29)
=ABS(J30)
=ABS(J31)
=ABS(J32)
=ABS(J33)
=ABS(J34)
=ABS(J35)
=ABS(J36)
=ABS(J37)
=ABS(J38)
=ABS(J39)
=ABS(J40)
=ABS(J41)
=ABS(J42)
=ABS(J43)
=ABS(J44)
=ABS(J45)
=ABS(J46)
=ABS(J47)
=ABS(J48)
=ABS(J49)
=ABS(J50)
=ABS(J51)
=ABS(J52)
=ABS(J53)
=ABS(J54)
=ABS(J55)
=ABS(J56)
=ABS(J57)
=ABS(J58)
=ABS(J59)
=ABS(J60)
=ABS(J61)
=ABS(J62)
=ABS(J63)
=ABS(J64)
=ABS(J65)
=ABS(J66)
=ABS(J67)
=ABS(J68)
=ABS(J69)
=ABS(J70)
=ABS(J71)
=ABS(J72)
=ABS(J73)
=ABS(J74)
=ABS(J75)
=ABS(J76)
=ABS(J77)
=ABS(J78)

bias

MSE

=SUM($J$19:J19)
=SUM($J$19:J20)
=SUM($J$19:J21)
=SUM($J$19:J22)
=SUM($J$19:J23)
=SUM($J$19:J24)
=SUM($J$19:J25)
=SUM($J$19:J26)
=SUM($J$19:J27)
=SUM($J$19:J28)
=SUM($J$19:J29)
=SUM($J$19:J30)
=SUM($J$19:J31)
=SUM($J$19:J32)
=SUM($J$19:J33)
=SUM($J$19:J34)
=SUM($J$19:J35)
=SUM($J$19:J36)
=SUM($J$19:J37)
=SUM($J$19:J38)
=SUM($J$19:J39)
=SUM($J$19:J40)
=SUM($J$19:J41)
=SUM($J$19:J42)
=SUM($J$19:J43)
=SUM($J$19:J44)
=SUM($J$19:J45)
=SUM($J$19:J46)
=SUM($J$19:J47)
=SUM($J$19:J48)
=SUM($J$19:J49)
=SUM($J$19:J50)
=SUM($J$19:J51)
=SUM($J$19:J52)
=SUM($J$19:J53)
=SUM($J$19:J54)
=SUM($J$19:J55)
=SUM($J$19:J56)
=SUM($J$19:J57)
=SUM($J$19:J58)
=SUM($J$19:J59)
=SUM($J$19:J60)
=SUM($J$19:J61)
=SUM($J$19:J62)
=SUM($J$19:J63)
=SUM($J$19:J64)
=SUM($J$19:J65)
=SUM($J$19:J66)
=SUM($J$19:J67)
=SUM($J$19:J68)
=SUM($J$19:J69)
=SUM($J$19:J70)
=SUM($J$19:J71)
=SUM($J$19:J72)
=SUM($J$19:J73)
=SUM($J$19:J74)
=SUM($J$19:J75)
=SUM($J$19:J76)
=SUM($J$19:J77)
=SUM($J$19:J78)

=SUMSQ($J$19:J19)/C19
=SUMSQ($J$19:J20)/C20
=SUMSQ($J$19:J21)/C21
=SUMSQ($J$19:J22)/C22
=SUMSQ($J$19:J23)/C23
=SUMSQ($J$19:J24)/C24
=SUMSQ($J$19:J25)/C25
=SUMSQ($J$19:J26)/C26
=SUMSQ($J$19:J27)/C27
=SUMSQ($J$19:J28)/C28
=SUMSQ($J$19:J29)/C29
=SUMSQ($J$19:J30)/C30
=SUMSQ($J$19:J31)/C31
=SUMSQ($J$19:J32)/C32
=SUMSQ($J$19:J33)/C33
=SUMSQ($J$19:J34)/C34
=SUMSQ($J$19:J35)/C35
=SUMSQ($J$19:J36)/C36
=SUMSQ($J$19:J37)/C37
=SUMSQ($J$19:J38)/C38
=SUMSQ($J$19:J39)/C39
=SUMSQ($J$19:J40)/C40
=SUMSQ($J$19:J41)/C41
=SUMSQ($J$19:J42)/C42
=SUMSQ($J$19:J43)/C43
=SUMSQ($J$19:J44)/C44
=SUMSQ($J$19:J45)/C45
=SUMSQ($J$19:J46)/C46
=SUMSQ($J$19:J47)/C47
=SUMSQ($J$19:J48)/C48
=SUMSQ($J$19:J49)/C49
=SUMSQ($J$19:J50)/C50
=SUMSQ($J$19:J51)/C51
=SUMSQ($J$19:J52)/C52
=SUMSQ($J$19:J53)/C53
=SUMSQ($J$19:J54)/C54
=SUMSQ($J$19:J55)/C55
=SUMSQ($J$19:J56)/C56
=SUMSQ($J$19:J57)/C57
=SUMSQ($J$19:J58)/C58
=SUMSQ($J$19:J59)/C59
=SUMSQ($J$19:J60)/C60
=SUMSQ($J$19:J61)/C61
=SUMSQ($J$19:J62)/C62
=SUMSQ($J$19:J63)/C63
=SUMSQ($J$19:J64)/C64
=SUMSQ($J$19:J65)/C65
=SUMSQ($J$19:J66)/C66
=SUMSQ($J$19:J67)/C67
=SUMSQ($J$19:J68)/C68
=SUMSQ($J$19:J69)/C69
=SUMSQ($J$19:J70)/C70
=SUMSQ($J$19:J71)/C71
=SUMSQ($J$19:J72)/C72
=SUMSQ($J$19:J73)/C73
=SUMSQ($J$19:J74)/C74
=SUMSQ($J$19:J75)/C75
=SUMSQ($J$19:J76)/C76
=SUMSQ($J$19:J77)/C77
=SUMSQ($J$19:J78)/C78

MAD

Percent Error

=SUM($K$19:K19)/C19
=K19/D19*100
=SUM($K$19:K20)/C20
=K20/D20*100
=SUM($K$19:K21)/C21
=K21/D21*100
=SUM($K$19:K22)/C22
=K22/D22*100
=SUM($K$19:K23)/C23
=K23/D23*100
=SUM($K$19:K24)/C24
=K24/D24*100
=SUM($K$19:K25)/C25
=K25/D25*100
=SUM($K$19:K26)/C26
=K26/D26*100
=SUM($K$19:K27)/C27
=K27/D27*100
=SUM($K$19:K28)/C28
=K28/D28*100
=SUM($K$19:K29)/C29
=K29/D29*100
=SUM($K$19:K30)/C30
=K30/D30*100
=SUM($K$19:K31)/C31
=K31/D31*100
=SUM($K$19:K32)/C32
=K32/D32*100
=SUM($K$19:K33)/C33
=K33/D33*100
=SUM($K$19:K34)/C34
=K34/D34*100
=SUM($K$19:K35)/C35
=K35/D35*100
=SUM($K$19:K36)/C36
=K36/D36*100
=SUM($K$19:K37)/C37
=K37/D37*100
=SUM($K$19:K38)/C38
=K38/D38*100
=SUM($K$19:K39)/C39
=K39/D39*100
=SUM($K$19:K40)/C40
=K40/D40*100
=SUM($K$19:K41)/C41
=K41/D41*100
=SUM($K$19:K42)/C42
=K42/D42*100
=SUM($K$19:K43)/C43
=K43/D43*100
=SUM($K$19:K44)/C44
=K44/D44*100
=SUM($K$19:K45)/C45
=K45/D45*100
=SUM($K$19:K46)/C46
=K46/D46*100
=SUM($K$19:K47)/C47
=K47/D47*100
=SUM($K$19:K48)/C48
=K48/D48*100
=SUM($K$19:K49)/C49
=K49/D49*100
=SUM($K$19:K50)/C50
=K50/D50*100
=SUM($K$19:K51)/C51
=K51/D51*100
=SUM($K$19:K52)/C52
=K52/D52*100
=SUM($K$19:K53)/C53
=K53/D53*100
=SUM($K$19:K54)/C54
=K54/D54*100
=SUM($K$19:K55)/C55
=K55/D55*100
=SUM($K$19:K56)/C56
=K56/D56*100
=SUM($K$19:K57)/C57
=K57/D57*100
=SUM($K$19:K58)/C58
=K58/D58*100
=SUM($K$19:K59)/C59
=K59/D59*100
=SUM($K$19:K60)/C60
=K60/D60*100
=SUM($K$19:K61)/C61
=K61/D61*100
=SUM($K$19:K62)/C62
=K62/D62*100
=SUM($K$19:K63)/C63
=K63/D63*100
=SUM($K$19:K64)/C64
=K64/D64*100
=SUM($K$19:K65)/C65
=K65/D65*100
=SUM($K$19:K66)/C66
=K66/D66*100
=SUM($K$19:K67)/C67
=K67/D67*100
=SUM($K$19:K68)/C68
=K68/D68*100
=SUM($K$19:K69)/C69
=K69/D69*100
=SUM($K$19:K70)/C70
=K70/D70*100
=SUM($K$19:K71)/C71
=K71/D71*100
=SUM($K$19:K72)/C72
=K72/D72*100
=SUM($K$19:K73)/C73
=K73/D73*100
=SUM($K$19:K74)/C74
=K74/D74*100
=SUM($K$19:K75)/C75
=K75/D75*100
=SUM($K$19:K76)/C76
=K76/D76*100
=SUM($K$19:K77)/C77
=K77/D77*100
=SUM($K$19:K78)/C78
=K78/D78*100
Estimate of standard deviation of forecast error: =N78*1.25

MAPE

TS

=AVERAGE($O$19:O19)
=SUM($J$19:J19)/N19
=AVERAGE($O$19:O20)
=SUM($J$19:J20)/N20
=AVERAGE($O$19:O21)
=SUM($J$19:J21)/N21
=AVERAGE($O$19:O22)
=SUM($J$19:J22)/N22
=AVERAGE($O$19:O23)
=SUM($J$19:J23)/N23
=AVERAGE($O$19:O24)
=SUM($J$19:J24)/N24
=AVERAGE($O$19:O25)
=SUM($J$19:J25)/N25
=AVERAGE($O$19:O26)
=SUM($J$19:J26)/N26
=AVERAGE($O$19:O27)
=SUM($J$19:J27)/N27
=AVERAGE($O$19:O28)
=SUM($J$19:J28)/N28
=AVERAGE($O$19:O29)
=SUM($J$19:J29)/N29
=AVERAGE($O$19:O30)
=SUM($J$19:J30)/N30
=AVERAGE($O$19:O31)
=SUM($J$19:J31)/N31
=AVERAGE($O$19:O32)
=SUM($J$19:J32)/N32
=AVERAGE($O$19:O33)
=SUM($J$19:J33)/N33
=AVERAGE($O$19:O34)
=SUM($J$19:J34)/N34
=AVERAGE($O$19:O35)
=SUM($J$19:J35)/N35
=AVERAGE($O$19:O36)
=SUM($J$19:J36)/N36
=AVERAGE($O$19:O37)
=SUM($J$19:J37)/N37
=AVERAGE($O$19:O38)
=SUM($J$19:J38)/N38
=AVERAGE($O$19:O39)
=SUM($J$19:J39)/N39
=AVERAGE($O$19:O40)
=SUM($J$19:J40)/N40
=AVERAGE($O$19:O41)
=SUM($J$19:J41)/N41
=AVERAGE($O$19:O42)
=SUM($J$19:J42)/N42
=AVERAGE($O$19:O43)
=SUM($J$19:J43)/N43
=AVERAGE($O$19:O44)
=SUM($J$19:J44)/N44
=AVERAGE($O$19:O45)
=SUM($J$19:J45)/N45
=AVERAGE($O$19:O46)
=SUM($J$19:J46)/N46
=AVERAGE($O$19:O47)
=SUM($J$19:J47)/N47
=AVERAGE($O$19:O48)
=SUM($J$19:J48)/N48
=AVERAGE($O$19:O49)
=SUM($J$19:J49)/N49
=AVERAGE($O$19:O50)
=SUM($J$19:J50)/N50
=AVERAGE($O$19:O51)
=SUM($J$19:J51)/N51
=AVERAGE($O$19:O52)
=SUM($J$19:J52)/N52
=AVERAGE($O$19:O53)
=SUM($J$19:J53)/N53
=AVERAGE($O$19:O54)
=SUM($J$19:J54)/N54
=AVERAGE($O$19:O55)
=SUM($J$19:J55)/N55
=AVERAGE($O$19:O56)
=SUM($J$19:J56)/N56
=AVERAGE($O$19:O57)
=SUM($J$19:J57)/N57
=AVERAGE($O$19:O58)
=SUM($J$19:J58)/N58
=AVERAGE($O$19:O59)
=SUM($J$19:J59)/N59
=AVERAGE($O$19:O60)
=SUM($J$19:J60)/N60
=AVERAGE($O$19:O61)
=SUM($J$19:J61)/N61
=AVERAGE($O$19:O62)
=SUM($J$19:J62)/N62
=AVERAGE($O$19:O63)
=SUM($J$19:J63)/N63
=AVERAGE($O$19:O64)
=SUM($J$19:J64)/N64
=AVERAGE($O$19:O65)
=SUM($J$19:J65)/N65
=AVERAGE($O$19:O66)
=SUM($J$19:J66)/N66
=AVERAGE($O$19:O67)
=SUM($J$19:J67)/N67
=AVERAGE($O$19:O68)
=SUM($J$19:J68)/N68
=AVERAGE($O$19:O69)
=SUM($J$19:J69)/N69
=AVERAGE($O$19:O70)
=SUM($J$19:J70)/N70
=AVERAGE($O$19:O71)
=SUM($J$19:J71)/N71
=AVERAGE($O$19:O72)
=SUM($J$19:J72)/N72
=AVERAGE($O$19:O73)
=SUM($J$19:J73)/N73
=AVERAGE($O$19:O74)
=SUM($J$19:J74)/N74
=AVERAGE($O$19:O75)
=SUM($J$19:J75)/N75
=AVERAGE($O$19:O76)
=SUM($J$19:J76)/N76
=AVERAGE($O$19:O77)
=SUM($J$19:J77)/N77
=AVERAGE($O$19:O78)
=SUM($J$19:J78)/N78

5000

Month

Desaesonalized Demand Regression

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R Square
Standard Error
Observations

0.974925619273633
0.950479963116077
0.949403440575122
226.901471550744
48

ANOVA
Regression
Residual
Total

1
46
47

SS
45456339.8303692
2368276.77842709
47824616.6087963

MS
45456339.8303692
51484.2777918933

F
882.916917162753

Intercept
X Variable 1

Coefficients
5997.26051768224
70.2457844840067

df

Standard Error
79.19340747569
2.36407008704351

t Stat
75.7292899604455
29.7139179032783

P-value
Lower 95%
6.12849862068368E-505837.85260875478
1.14477843986988E-3165.4871627609897

Seasonal Factors
Average of Seasonal Factor St
Month
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC

Total
0.426608526754276
0.474546264505078
0.462622654498944
0.398200257435726
0.621315499102455
0.834384917835114
0.852882394306724
1.15115374207231
1.73299998783266
1.77807831928623
2.12368220128937
1.09472006496758

Significance F
1.14477843987011E-31

Upper 95%
6156.6684266097
75.0044062070237

Lower 95.0%
5837.85260875478
65.4871627609897

Upper 95.0%
6156.6684266097
75.0044062070237

Bias
3000
2000
1000
0
-1000
bias

Year
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1999
1999
1999
1999
1999
1999
1999
1999
1999
1999
1999
1999
2000
2000
2000
2000
2000
2000
2000
2000
2000
2000
2000
2000
2001
2001
2001
2001
2001
2001
2001
2001
2001
2001
2001
2001
2002
2002
2002
2002
2002
2002
2002
2002
2002
2002
2002
2002
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60

-2000
-3000
-4000
-5000
-6000
-7000
Period

214253943.xls.ms_office - Formulas