3/13/2014

The Technium: 1,000 True Fans

1,000TrueFans
[Translations:Chinese,French,German,Hebrew,Italian,Japanese,Portuguese,Romanian,Spanish] Thelongtailisfamouslygoodnewsfortwoclassesofpeopleafewluckyaggregators,suchasAmazonand Netflix,and6billionconsumers.Ofthosetwo,Ithinkconsumersearnthegreaterrewardfromthewealth hiddenininfiniteniches. Butthelongtailisadecidedlymixedblessingforcreators.Individualartists,producers,inventorsandmakers areoverlookedintheequation.Thelongtaildoesnotraisethesalesofcreatorsmuch,butitdoesadd massivecompetitionandendlessdownwardpressureonprices.Unlessartistsbecomealargeaggregatorof otherartist'sworks,thelongtailoffersnopathoutofthequietdoldrumsofminusculesales. Otherthanaimforablockbusterhit,whatcananartistdotoescapethelongtail? Onesolutionistofind1,000TrueFans.Whilesomeartistshavediscoveredthispathwithoutcallingitthat,I thinkitisworthtryingtoformalize.Thegistof1,000TrueFanscanbestatedsimply: Acreator,suchasanartist,musician,photographer,craftsperson,performer,animator,designer, videomaker,orauthorinotherwords,anyoneproducingworksofartneedstoacquireonly1,000True Fanstomakealiving. ATrueFanisdefinedassomeonewhowillpurchaseanythingandeverythingyouproduce.Theywilldrive200 milestoseeyousing.Theywillbuythesuperdeluxereissuedhiresboxsetofyourstuffeventhoughthey havethelowresversion.TheyhaveaGoogleAlertsetforyourname.TheybookmarktheeBaypagewhere youroutofprinteditionsshowup.Theycometoyouropenings.Theyhaveyousigntheircopies.Theybuy thetshirt,andthemug,andthehat.Theycan'twaittillyouissueyournextwork.Theyaretruefans.

ToraiseyoursalesoutoftheflatlineofthelongtailyouneedtoconnectwithyourTrueFansdirectly.Another waytostatethisis,youneedtoconvertathousandLesserFansintoathousandTrueFans. AssumeconservativelythatyourTrueFanswilleachspendoneday'swagesperyearinsupportofwhatyou do.That"onedaywage"isanaverage,becauseofcourseyourtruestfanswillspendalotmorethanthat. Let'spegthatperdiemeachTrueFanspendsat$100peryear.Ifyouhave1,000fansthatsumsupto $100,000peryear,whichminussomemodestexpenses,isalivingformostfolks. Onethousandisafeasiblenumber.Youcouldcountto1,000.Ifyouaddedonefanaday,itwouldtakeonly threeyears.TrueFanshipisdoable.PleasingaTrueFanispleasurable,andinvigorating.Itrewardstheartist toremaintrue,tofocusontheuniqueaspectsoftheirwork,thequalitiesthatTrueFansappreciate. Thekeychallengeisthatyouhavetomaintaindirectcontactwithyour1,000TrueFans.Theyaregivingyou theirsupportdirectly.Maybetheycometoyourhouseconcerts,ortheyarebuyingyourDVDsfromyour
http://kk.org/thetechnium/archives/2008/03/1000_true_fans.php 1/4

3/13/2014

The Technium: 1,000 True Fans

website,ortheyorderyourprintsfromPictopia.Asmuchaspossibleyouretainthefullamountoftheir support.Youalsobenefitfromthedirectfeedbackandlove. Thetechnologiesofconnectionandsmalltimemanufacturingmakethiscirclepossible.BlogsandRSSfeeds trickleoutnews,andupcomingappearancesornewworks.Websiteshostgalleriesofyourpastwork, archivesofbiographicalinformation,andcatalogsofparaphernalia.Diskmakers,Blurb,rapidprototyping shops,Myspace,Facebook,andtheentiredigitaldomainallconspiretomakeduplicationanddisseminationin smallquantitiesfast,cheapandeasy.Youdon'tneedamillionfanstojustifyproducingsomethingnew.A mereonethousandissufficient. Thissmallcircleofdiehardfans,whichcanprovideyouwithaliving,issurroundedbyconcentriccirclesof LesserFans.Thesefolkswillnotpurchaseeverythingyoudo,andmaynotseekoutdirectcontact,butthey willbuymuchofwhatyouproduce.TheprocessesyoudeveloptofeedyourTrueFanswillalsonurtureLesser Fans.AsyouacquirenewTrueFans,youcanalsoaddmanymoreLesserFans.Ifyoukeepgoing,youmay indeedendupwithmillionsoffansandreachahit.Idon'tknowofanycreatorwhoisnotinterestedinhaving amillionfans. Butthepointofthisstrategyistosaythatyoudon'tneedahittosurvive.Youdon'tneedtoaimfortheshort headofbestsellerdomtoescapethelongtail.Thereisaplaceinthemiddle,thatisnotveryfarawayfrom thetail,whereyoucanatleastmakealiving.Thatmidwayhaveniscalled1,000TrueFans.Itisanalternate destinationforanartisttoaimfor. Youngartistsstartingoutinthisdigitallymediatedworldhaveanotherpathotherthanstardom,apathmade possiblebytheverytechnologythatcreatesthelongtail.Insteadoftryingtoreachthenarrowandunlikely peaksofplatinumhits,bestsellerblockbusters,andcelebritystatus,theycanaimfordirectconnectionwith 1,000TrueFans.It'samuchsanerdestinationtohopefor.Youmakealivinginsteadofafortune.Youare surroundednotbyfadandfashionableinfatuation,butbyTrueFans.Andyouaremuchmorelikelytoactually arrivethere. Afewcaveats.ThisformulaonethousanddirectTrueFansiscraftedforoneperson,thesoloartist.What happensinaduet,orquartet,ormoviecrew?Obviously,you'llneedmorefans.Buttheadditionalfansyou'll needareindirectgeometricproportiontotheincreaseofyourcreativegroup.Inotherwords,ifyouincrease yourgroupsizeby33%,youneedaddonly33%morefans.Thislineargrowthisincontrasttotheexponential growthbywhichmanythingsinthedigitaldomaininflate.Iwouldnotbesurprisedtofindthatthevalueof yourTrueFansnetworkfollowsthestandardnetworkeffectsrule,andincreasesasthesquareofthenumber ofFans.AsyourTrueFansconnectwitheachother,theywillmorereadilyincreasetheiraveragespendingon yourworks.SowhileincreasingthenumbersofartistsinvolvedincreationincreasesthenumberofTrueFans needed,theincreasedoesnotexplode,butrisesgentlyandinproportion. Amoreimportantcaution:Noteveryartistiscutout,orwilling,tobeanurtureroffans.Manymusiciansjust wanttoplaymusic,orphotographersjustwanttoshoot,orpainterspaint,andtheytemperamentallydon't wanttodealwithfans,especiallyTrueFans.Forthesecreatives,theyneedamediator,amanager,a handler,anagent,agalleryistsomeonetomanagetheirfans.Nonetheless,theycanstillaimforthesame middledestinationof1,000TrueFans.Theyarejustworkinginaduet. Thirddistinction.Directfansarebest.ThenumberofTrueFansneededtomakealivingindirectlyinflatesfast, butnotinfinitely.Takebloggingasanexample.Becausefansupportforabloggerroutesthroughadvertising clicks(exceptintheoccasionaltipjar),morefansareneededforabloggertomakealiving.Butwhilethis movesthedestinationtowardstheleftonthelongtailcurve,itisstillfarshortofblockbusterterritory.Same istrueinbookpublishing.Whenyouhavecorporationsinvolvedintakingthemajorityoftherevenueforyour work,thenittakesmanytimesmoreTrueFanstosupportyou.Tothedegreeanauthorcultivatesdirect contactwithhis/herfans,thesmallerthenumberneeded. Lastly,theactualnumbermayvarydependingonthemedia.Maybeitis500TrueFansforapainterand5,000 TrueFansforavideomaker.Thenumbersmustsurelyvaryaroundtheworld.Butinfacttheactualnumberis notcritical,becauseitcannotbedeterminedexceptbyattemptingit.Onceyouareinthatmode,theactual numberwillbecomeevident.ThatwillbetheTrueFannumberthatworksforyou.Myformulamaybeoffby anorderofmagnitude,butevenso,itsfarlessthanamillion. I'vebeenscouringtheliteratureforanyreferencestotheTrueFannumber.Suck.comcofounderCarl
http://kk.org/thetechnium/archives/2008/03/1000_true_fans.php 2/4

3/13/2014

The Technium: 1,000 True Fans

Steadmanhadtheoryaboutmicrocelebrities.Byhiscount,amicrocelebritywassomeonefamousto1,500 people.Sothosefifteenhundredwouldraveaboutyou.AsquotedbyDannyO'Brien,"Onepersoninevery towninBritainlikesyourdumbonlinecomic.That'senoughtokeepyouinbeers(orTshirtsales)allyear." Otherscallthismicrocelebritysupportmicropatronage,ordistributedpatronage. In1999JohnKelseyandBruceSchneierpublishedamodelforthisinFirstMonday,anonlinejournal.They calledittheStreetPerformerProtocol. Usingthelogicofastreetperformer,theauthorgoesdirectlytothereadersbeforethebookis publishedperhapsevenbeforethebookiswritten.Theauthorbypassesthepublisherand makesapublicstatementontheorderof:"WhenIget$100,000indonations,Iwillreleasethe nextnovelinthisseries." Readerscangototheauthor'sWebsite,seehowmuchmoneyhasalreadybeendonated,and donatemoneytothecauseofgettinghisnovelout.Notethattheauthordoesn'tcarewhopays togetthenextchapteroutnordoeshecarehowmanypeoplereadthebookthatdidn'tpayfor it.Hejustcaresthathis$100,000potgetsfilled.Whenitdoes,hepublishesthenextbook.In thiscase"publish"simplymeans"makeavailable,"not"bindanddistributethroughbookstores." Thebookismadeavailable,freeofcharge,toeveryone:thosewhopaidforitandthosewhodid not. In2004authorLawrenceWattEvansusedthismodeltopublishhisnewestnovel.HeaskedhisTrueFansto collectivelypay$100permonth.Whenhegot$100hepostedthenextchapterofthenovel.Theentirebook waspublishedonlineforhisTrueFans,andthenlaterinpaperforallhisfans.Heisnowwritingasecondnovel thisway.Hegetsbyonanestimated200TrueFansbecausehealsopublishesinthetraditionalmannerwith advancesfromapublishersupportedbythousandsofLesserFans.Otherauthorswhousefanstodirectly supporttheirworkareDianeDuane,SharonLeeandSteveMiller,andDonSakers.GamedesignerGreg StolzeemployedasimilarTrueFanmodeltolaunchtwoprefinancedgames.FiftyofhisTrueFanscontributed seedmoneyforhisdevelopmentcosts. ThegeniusoftheTrueFanmodelisthatthefansareabletomoveanartistawayfromtheedgesofthelong tailtoadegreelargerthantheirnumbersindicate.Theycandothisinthreeways:bypurchasingmoreper person,byspendingdirectlysothecreatorkeepsmorepersale,andbyenablingnewmodelsofsupport. Newmodelsofsupportincludemicropatronage.Anothermodelisprefinancingthestartupcosts.Digital technologyenablesthisfansupporttotakemanyshapes.Fundableisawebbasedenterprisewhichallows anyonetoraiseafixedamountofmoneyforaproject,whilereassuringthebackerstheprojectwillhappen. Fundablewithholdsthemoneyuntilthefullamountiscollected.Theyreturnthemoneyiftheminimumisnot reached.

Here'sanexamplefromFundable'ssite Amelia,atwentyyearoldclassicalsopranosinger,presoldherfirstCDbeforeenteringa recordingstudio."IfIget$400inpreorders,Iwillbeabletoaffordtherest[ofthestudio costs],"shetoldpotentialcontributors.Fundable'sallornothingmodelensuredthatnoneofher customerswouldlosemoneyifshefellshortofhergoal.Ameliasoldover$940inalbums. Athousanddollarswon'tkeepevenastarvingartistalivelong,butwithseriousattention,adedicatedartist candobetterwiththeirTrueFans.JillSobule,amusicianwhohasnurturedasizablefollowingovermany yearsoftouringandrecording,isdoingwellrelyingonherTrueFans.Recentlyshedecidedtogotoherfans

http://kk.org/thetechnium/archives/2008/03/1000_true_fans.php 3/4

3/13/2014

The Technium: 1,000 True Fans

tofinancethe$75,000professionalrecordingfeessheneededforhernextalbum.Shehasraisedcloseto $50,000sofar.Bydirectlysupportingherviatheirpatronage,thefansgainintimacywiththeirartist. AccordingtotheAssociatedPress: Contributorscanchoosealevelofpledgesrangingfromthe$10"unpolishedrock,"whichearns themafreedigitaldownloadofherdiscwhenit'smade,tothe$10,000"weaponsgrade plutoniumlevel,"whereshepromises"yougettocomeandsingonmyCD.Don'tworryifyou can'tsingwecanfixthatonourend."Fora$5,000contribution,Sobulesaidshe'llperforma concertinthedonor'shouse.Thelowerlevelsaremorepopular,wheredonorscanearnthings likeanadvancedcopyoftheCD,amentioninthelinernotesandaTshirtidentifyingthemasa "juniorexecutiveproducer"oftheCD. TheusualalternativetomakingalivingbasedonTrueFansispoverty.Astudyasrecentlyas1995showed thattheacceptedpriceofbeinganartistwaslarge.SociologistRuthTowsesurveyedartistsinBritianand determinedthatonaveragetheyearnedbelowpovertysubsistencelevels. Iamsuggestingthereisahomeforcreativesinbetweenpovertyandstardom.Somewherelowerthan stratosphericbestsellerdom,buthigherthantheobscurityofthelongtail.Idon'tknowtheactualtruenumber, butIthinkadedicatedartistcouldcultivate1,000TrueFans,andbytheirdirectsupportusingnewtechnology, makeanhonestliving.I'dlovetohearfromanyonewhomighthavesettledonsuchapath. Updates: OneartistwhopartiallyreliesonTrueFansrespondswithadisclosureofhisfinances:TheRealityof DependingonTrueFans IreporttheresultsofmysurveyofartistssupportedbyTrueFans:TheCaseAgainst1000TrueFans 4March2008|377Comments| | Like 5.5k

<TheWikipediaDeletionWars|WhyLeapfroggingisRare>

http://kk.org/thetechnium/archives/2008/03/1000_true_fans.php

4/4