Vous êtes sur la page 1sur 2

Chapter 3

FINANCIAL STATEMENT ANALYSIS AND LONG-TERM PLANNING (Part C)


Long-Term Financial Planning
The Percentage of Sales Approach
External Financing and Growth
Long-Term Financial Planning
A Simple Financial Planning Model
Sales Forecast most other considerations depend upon the sales forecast so it is
said to !dri"e# the model
Pro Forma Statements the output summari$ing different pro%ections
Asset &e'uirements in"estment needed to support sales growth
Financial &e'uirements de(t and di"idend policies
The !Plug# designated source)s* of external financing
Percentage of Sales Approach
Overall Logic of Aroac!+
Sales generate retained earnings )unless all income is paid out in di"idends*,
&etained earnings plus external funds raised support an increase in assets,
More assets lead to more sales and the c-cle starts again,
Assumptions+
.ertain items are fixed and other "ar- proportionall- with sales,
/nce forecasted -ou must select a plug account that will (e used to ma0e the
(alance sheet (alance, )Plug in reflects External Financing 1eeded )EF1*,
External Financing )EF1* and Growth
Assuming no spontaneous sources of funds EF1 e'uals the increase in total assets less
the addition to retained earnings,
Slide 24
Copyright 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc !ll rights reser"e# McGraw -Hill/Irwin
Percent of Sales and EFN
External Financing Needed (EFN) can also be
calculated as:
(where PM is the profit margin and d is the
diidend pa!out ratio)
* 2 ) Sales* Pro%ected ) 3Sales
Sales
Lia( Spon
Sales
Sales
Assets
# $M

The 4nternal Growth &ate )4G&* is the growth rate the firm can maintain with I"ter"al
Fi"a"ci"g onl-,
4G& 5 )&/A6(* 7 82 &/A6(9
:here ( is the plow(ac0 ratio )2 di"idend pa-out*
The Sustaina(le Growth &ate )SG&* is the maximum growth rate a firm can achie"e
without external e'uit- financing while maintaining a Co"#ta"t $e%t-to-e&'it( ratio,
SG& 5 )&/E6(* 7 82 &/E6(9
;eterminants of growth From the ;u Pont identit- &/E can (e "iewed as the product
of+ profit margin total asset turno"er and the e'uit- multiplier,
An-thing that increases &/E will increase the sustaina(le growth rate as well, Therefore
the sustaina(le growth rate depends on the following four factors+
/perating efficienc- profit margin
Asset use efficienc- total asset turno"er
Financial le"erage e'uit- multiplier
;i"idend polic- retention ratio