SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.9280
R Square
0.8611
Adjusted R Square
0.8550
Standard Error
433.5774
Observations
96.0000
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

SS
MS
F
Significance F
4.0000 106062418.2365 26515604.5591 141.0484
0.0000
91.0000 17107032.4553
187989.3676
95.0000 123169450.6918

Coefficients
Standard Error
Intercept
5224.7280
759.9195
USD Price (in Rupees)
-172.8320
18.0041
CPI
34.2380
5.0270
IIP
16.8226
4.8284
FII (in Billion Rupees)
1.5825
0.5249

RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Observation Predicted NSE Monthly Price
1.0000
2695.9888
2.0000
2798.9945
3.0000
2910.5529
4.0000
2978.0756
5.0000
2952.0031
6.0000
2904.2833
7.0000
2723.1782
8.0000
2687.4698
9.0000
2966.7035
10.0000
3132.3843
11.0000
3084.9711
12.0000
3275.1769
13.0000
2835.2928
14.0000
2734.9720
15.0000
2840.0952
16.0000
2844.1664
17.0000
2820.4330
18.0000
2999.3478
19.0000
3180.1689

t Stat
P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%
6.8754
0.0000 3715.2413 6734.2148
-9.5996
0.0000 -208.5949 -137.0691
6.8108
0.0000
24.2525
44.2235
3.4841
0.0008
7.2317
26.4136
3.0149
0.0033
0.5398
2.6251

PROBABILITY OUTPUT
Residuals
-708.8938
-796.7173
-776.2659
-741.3731
-594.4417
-392.5786
-236.4007
-112.8098
-194.0922
-239.7018
-65.6501
-38.8087
658.7683
702.4394
74.8179
247.9431
485.1488
492.7831
469.2586

Percentile
NSE Monthly Price
0.5208 1987.0950
1.5625 2002.2773
2.6042 2134.2870
3.6458 2236.7025
4.6875 2357.5614
5.7292 2486.7775
6.7708 2511.7048
7.8125 2574.6600
8.8542 2772.6114
9.8958 2802.2725
10.9375 2819.2053
11.9792 2834.7861
13.0208 2854.3625
14.0625 2892.6825
15.1042 2895.7976
16.1458 2914.9130
17.1875 3019.3211
18.2292 3092.1095
19.2708 3210.2225

20.0000
21.0000
22.0000
23.0000
24.0000
25.0000
26.0000
27.0000
28.0000
29.0000
30.0000
31.0000
32.0000
33.0000
34.0000
35.0000
36.0000
37.0000
38.0000
39.0000
40.0000
41.0000
42.0000
43.0000
44.0000
45.0000
46.0000
47.0000
48.0000
49.0000
50.0000
51.0000
52.0000
53.0000
54.0000
55.0000
56.0000
57.0000
58.0000
59.0000
60.0000
61.0000
62.0000
63.0000
64.0000
65.0000
66.0000

3438.3949
3456.5454
3623.8832
3583.6589
3827.4901
3945.1100
4330.5393
4423.3344
4736.9710
4251.6484
4740.5341
4970.0272
4628.4492
4971.5466
4727.3380
4971.1920
5031.2642
4792.8454
4454.3077
4280.8454
4436.9873
4418.9341
4033.7475
3423.2819
3425.3853
3679.5534
3513.5899
3375.0458
3323.6798
3469.3568
4048.5783
3997.7948
4218.6692
4218.1943
4518.6880
4664.5819
4715.7384
5046.6174
5062.5797
4919.9588
5655.2270
5340.0823
4870.7595
5088.7426
5358.0282
5212.2719
5703.9435

430.2164
453.6346
413.1818
500.0779
-96.3615
2.1675
-146.1488
-201.1606
-262.7892
49.7084
-80.6141
486.5910
1120.1258
992.0271
1029.0164
230.3723
-261.7670
109.0596
574.3548
182.9427
-311.4540
-1.8166
172.9383
-213.0594
-590.5992
-783.7558
-659.2274
-555.8405
-521.4073
-109.5274
-90.6158
438.5756
124.4286
352.9152
340.6195
329.5256
237.7991
53.1255
93.6440
-80.3863
-477.0793
-45.3273
182.2119
99.0324
6.8766
244.9667
107.5399

20.3125
21.3542
22.3958
23.4375
24.4792
25.5208
26.5625
27.6042
28.6458
29.6875
30.7292
31.7708
32.8125
33.8542
34.8958
35.9375
36.9792
38.0208
39.0625
40.1042
41.1458
42.1875
43.2292
44.2708
45.3125
46.3542
47.3958
48.4375
49.4792
50.5208
51.5625
52.6042
53.6458
54.6875
55.7292
56.7708
57.8125
58.8542
59.8958
60.9375
61.9792
63.0208
64.0625
65.1042
66.1458
67.1875
68.2292

3236.3682
3305.5818
3359.8294
3437.4114
3492.1310
3494.0611
3649.4275
3731.1286
3868.6114
3910.1800
3947.2775
3957.9625
4037.0650
4083.7368
4125.5333
4184.3905
4206.6857
4222.1738
4301.3568
4343.0978
4417.1175
4436.3705
4463.7881
4474.1818
4571.1095
4659.9200
4769.4972
4782.3643
4839.5725
4859.3075
4901.9050
4920.0159
4953.5375
4966.5068
4994.1075
5004.2775
5015.5786
5028.6625
5052.9714
5060.0158
5074.2143
5076.7429
5099.7429
5156.2237
5178.1476
5187.7750
5201.5643

67.0000
68.0000
69.0000
70.0000
71.0000
72.0000
73.0000
74.0000
75.0000
76.0000
77.0000
78.0000
79.0000
80.0000
81.0000
82.0000
83.0000
84.0000
85.0000
86.0000
87.0000
88.0000
89.0000
90.0000
91.0000
92.0000
93.0000
94.0000
95.0000
96.0000

6075.6776
5750.2821
5858.8884
5780.5597
5587.2891
6297.1818
5885.3700
5731.6606
6014.0390
6136.8597
5690.4573
5607.2334
5253.0088
5058.0225
4961.6393
5351.7946
5938.5689
5745.4547
5055.8377
4724.1024
4560.1954
4816.3468
4855.6425
5199.6294
5506.6334
5145.5201
5621.6942
5765.5338
5814.9240
5864.8113

20.4296
305.0489
-437.1351
2.1503
-186.3716
-758.7636
-46.2755
-239.4629
-541.4027
-540.2716
-613.7144
-591.6548
-192.9930
-53.7450
-179.2750
-431.7786
-529.4789
-446.9706
198.6423
242.4044
514.0189
405.6645
474.0790
285.6356
181.9976
534.1024
269.2608
257.5836
78.6635
-82.5507

69.2708
70.3125
71.3542
72.3958
73.4375
74.4792
75.5208
76.5625
77.6042
78.6458
79.6875
80.7292
81.7708
82.8125
83.8542
84.8958
85.9375
86.9792
88.0208
89.0625
90.1042
91.1458
92.1875
93.2292
94.2708
95.3125
96.3542
97.3958
98.4375
99.4792

5222.0114
5254.4800
5294.7550
5298.4841
5329.7214
5364.9048
5400.9175
5409.0900
5421.7533
5456.6182
5457.2386
5472.6364
5485.2650
5492.1977
5538.4182
5596.5881
5679.6225
5688.6310
5748.5750
5756.3543
5782.2605
5782.7100
5811.4833
5839.0944
5890.9550
5893.5875
5963.5737
6023.1174
6055.3310
6096.1071

Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%

3715.2413 6734.2148
-208.5949 -137.0691
24.2525
44.2235
7.2317
26.4136
0.5398
2.6251

Month
Apr-2005
May-2005
Jun-2005
Jul-2005
Aug-2005
Sep-2005
Oct-2005
Nov-2005
Dec-2005
Jan-2006
Feb-2006
Mar-2006
Apr-2006
May-2006
Jun-2006
Jul-2006
Aug-2006
Sep-2006
Oct-2006
Nov-2006
Dec-2006
Jan-2007
Feb-2007
Mar-2007
Apr-2007
May-2007
Jun-2007
Jul-2007
Aug-2007
Sep-2007
Oct-2007
Nov-2007
Dec-2007
Jan-2008
Feb-2008
Mar-2008
Apr-2008
May-2008
Jun-2008
Jul-2008
Aug-2008
Sep-2008
Oct-2008
Nov-2008
Dec-2008

NSE Market
Price
1987.10
2002.28
2134.29
2236.70
2357.56
2511.70
2486.78
2574.66
2772.61
2892.68
3019.32
3236.37
3494.06
3437.41
2914.91
3092.11
3305.58
3492.13
3649.43
3868.61
3910.18
4037.07
4083.74
3731.13
3947.28
4184.39
4222.17
4474.18
4301.36
4659.92
5456.62
5748.58
5963.57
5756.35
5201.56
4769.50
4901.91
5028.66
4463.79
4125.53
4417.12
4206.69
3210.22
2834.79
2895.80

USD Price (in

Rupees)
43.74
43.49
43.58
43.54
43.63
43.92
44.82
45.73
45.64
44.40
44.33
44.48
44.95
45.41
46.06
46.46
46.54
46.12
45.47
44.85
44.64
44.33
44.16
44.03
42.15
40.78
40.77
40.41
40.82
40.34
39.51
39.44
39.44
39.37
39.73
40.36
40.02
42.13
42.82
42.84
42.94
45.56
48.66
49.00
48.64

CPI
98.70
98.30
98.70
100.40
100.80
101.10
102.20
103.20
102.60
102.40
102.40
102.40
103.30
104.20
105.90
106.70
106.70
107.60
109.30
109.30
109.30
109.30
110.20
109.30
110.20
111.00
111.90
113.60
114.50
114.50
115.30
115.30
115.30
115.30
116.20
117.90
118.80
119.60
120.50
123.10
124.80
125.70
127.40
127.40
126.50

IIP
99.08
103.09
103.97
102.44
104.10
104.41
107.33
104.64
116.82
118.47
112.43
126.72
108.84
114.83
114.21
117.60
114.27
118.18
117.68
125.54
132.77
134.86
127.81
144.87
128.20
136.86
136.74
136.65
134.60
133.98
140.72
137.92
150.73
152.52
149.32
161.88
142.33
146.75
148.38
144.30
141.87
148.59
146.17
139.65
148.28

FII (in Billion

Rupees)
-9.46
-5.87
56.99
73.91
40.85
32.58
-38.08
45.59
96.15
51.77
78.59
63.48
7.22
-89.30
17.82
10.73
39.98
46.24
58.05
70.29
-18.69
31.85
42.79
20.57
47.53
32.42
72.10
195.15
-64.76
198.23
163.76
-30.52
50.55
-130.01
77.84
13.54
14.76
-33.78
-104.29
-16.54
-28.08
-75.49
-134.61
-26.07
22.08

Jan-2009
Feb-2009
Mar-2009
Apr-2009
May-2009
Jun-2009
Jul-2009
Aug-2009
Sep-2009
Oct-2009
Nov-2009
Dec-2009
Jan-2010
Feb-2010
Mar-2010
Apr-2010
May-2010
Jun-2010
Jul-2010
Aug-2010
Sep-2010
Oct-2010
Nov-2010
Dec-2010
Jan-2011
Feb-2011
Mar-2011
Apr-2011
May-2011
Jun-2011
Jul-2011
Aug-2011
Sep-2011
Oct-2011
Nov-2011
Dec-2011
Jan-2012
Feb-2012
Mar-2012
Apr-2012
May-2012
Jun-2012
Jul-2012
Aug-2012
Sep-2012
Oct-2012
Nov-2012

2854.36
2819.21
2802.27
3359.83
3957.96
4436.37
4343.10
4571.11
4859.31
4994.11
4953.54
5099.74
5156.22
4839.57
5178.15
5294.76
5052.97
5187.78
5364.90
5457.24
5811.48
6096.11
6055.33
5421.75
5782.71
5400.92
5538.42
5839.09
5492.20
5472.64
5596.59
5076.74
5015.58
5060.02
5004.28
4782.36
4920.02
5409.09
5298.48
5254.48
4966.51
5074.21
5222.01
5329.72
5485.27
5688.63
5679.62

48.83
49.26
51.23
50.06
48.53
47.77
48.48
48.34
48.44
46.72
46.57
46.63
45.96
46.33
45.50
44.50
45.81
46.57
46.84
46.57
46.06
44.41
45.02
45.16
45.40
45.44
44.99
44.37
44.91
44.85
44.42
45.28
47.64
49.26
50.84
52.67
51.35
49.16
50.32
51.80
54.47
56.03
55.50
55.56
54.61
53.02
54.78

127.40
127.40
127.40
129.10
130.00
131.70
137.70
139.40
140.30
142.00
144.60
145.50
148.00
146.30
146.30
146.30
148.00
149.80
153.20
153.20
154.10
155.80
156.70
159.20
161.80
159.20
159.20
160.10
161.00
162.70
166.10
167.00
169.60
170.40
171.30
169.60
170.40
171.30
173.00
176.50
177.30
179.00
182.50
184.20
185.10
186.80
187.60

144.37
138.51
153.53
139.59
144.27
145.74
146.72
149.42
151.01
149.65
148.50
162.38
163.62
157.52
176.47
157.85
156.54
156.55
161.30
156.10
160.30
166.60
158.00
175.60
175.90
168.00
193.10
166.20
166.20
171.40
167.20
161.40
164.30
158.30
167.50
180.30
177.60
175.20
187.60
164.10
170.30
168.00
167.10
164.70
163.10
171.60
165.80

-38.97
-17.59
5.22
81.23
211.15
43.32
119.87
38.47
203.35
85.58
57.28
106.01
-24.35
27.34
199.77
89.67
-86.47
94.47
170.18
103.97
295.07
246.34
178.74
21.70
-61.47
-38.78
94.17
32.49
-25.46
55.13
56.21
-89.44
28.53
27.98
-39.29
-0.17
113.39
251.92
87.87
-12.18
-13.32
40.72
78.00
98.66
209.38
103.46
110.96

Dec-2012
Jan-2013
Feb-2013
Mar-2013

5890.96
6023.12
5893.59
5782.26

54.65
54.32
53.77
54.41

188.50
190.20
191.90
192.80

179.30
182.00
176.20
194.20

234.90
224.16
220.95
110.56

Month
Apr-2005
May-2005
Jun-2005
Jul-2005
Aug-2005
Sep-2005
Oct-2005
Nov-2005
Dec-2005
Jan-2006
Feb-2006
Mar-2006
Apr-2006
May-2006
Jun-2006
Jul-2006
Aug-2006
Sep-2006
Oct-2006
Nov-2006
Dec-2006
Jan-2007
Feb-2007
Mar-2007
Apr-2007
May-2007
Jun-2007
Jul-2007
Aug-2007
Sep-2007
Oct-2007
Nov-2007
Dec-2007
Jan-2008
Feb-2008
Mar-2008
Apr-2008
May-2008
Jun-2008
Jul-2008
Aug-2008
Sep-2008
Oct-2008
Nov-2008
Dec-2008
Jan-2009
Feb-2009
Mar-2009

NSE Market
Price
1987.10
2002.28
2134.29
2236.70
2357.56
2511.70
2486.78
2574.66
2772.61
2892.68
3019.32
3236.37
3494.06
3437.41
2914.91
3092.11
3305.58
3492.13
3649.43
3868.61
3910.18
4037.07
4083.74
3731.13
3947.28
4184.39
4222.17
4474.18
4301.36
4659.92
5456.62
5748.58
5963.57
5756.35
5201.56
4769.50
4901.91
5028.66
4463.79
4125.53
4417.12
4206.69
3210.22
2834.79
2895.80
2854.36
2819.21
2802.27

Model Price
2695.99
2798.99
2910.55
2978.08
2952.00
2904.28
2723.18
2687.47
2966.70
3132.38
3084.97
3275.18
2835.29
2734.97
2840.10
2844.17
2820.43
2999.35
3180.17
3438.39
3456.55
3623.88
3583.66
3827.49
3945.11
4330.54
4423.33
4736.97
4251.65
4740.53
4970.03
4628.45
4971.55
4727.34
4971.19
5031.26
4792.85
4454.31
4280.85
4436.99
4418.93
4033.75
3423.28
3425.39
3679.55
3513.59
3375.05
3323.68

Market
Return
0.00764
0.06593
0.04799
0.05403
0.06538
-0.00992
0.03534
0.07688
0.04331
0.04378
0.07189
0.07962
-0.01621
-0.15200
0.06079
0.06904
0.05643
0.04504
0.06006
0.01075
0.03245
0.01156
-0.08634
0.05793
0.06007
0.00903
0.05969
-0.03863
0.08336
0.17097
0.05351
0.03740
-0.03475
-0.09638
-0.08306
0.02776
0.02586
-0.11233
-0.07578
0.07068
-0.04764
-0.23688
-0.11695
0.02152
-0.01431
-0.01232
-0.00601
0.19897

Residue
-708.89
-796.72
-776.27
-741.37
-594.44
-392.58
-236.40
-112.81
-194.09
-239.70
-65.65
-38.81
658.77
702.44
74.82
247.94
485.15
492.78
469.26
430.22
453.63
413.18
500.08
-96.36
2.17
-146.15
-201.16
-262.79
49.71
-80.61
486.59
1120.13
992.03
1029.02
230.37
-261.77
109.06
574.35
182.94
-311.45
-1.82
172.94
-213.06
-590.60
-783.76
-659.23
-555.84
-521.41

Apr-2009
May-2009
Jun-2009
Jul-2009
Aug-2009
Sep-2009
Oct-2009
Nov-2009
Dec-2009
Jan-2010
Feb-2010
Mar-2010
Apr-2010
May-2010
Jun-2010
Jul-2010
Aug-2010
Sep-2010
Oct-2010
Nov-2010
Dec-2010
Jan-2011
Feb-2011
Mar-2011
Apr-2011
May-2011
Jun-2011
Jul-2011
Aug-2011
Sep-2011
Oct-2011
Nov-2011
Dec-2011
Jan-2012
Feb-2012
Mar-2012
Apr-2012
May-2012
Jun-2012
Jul-2012
Aug-2012
Sep-2012
Oct-2012
Nov-2012
Dec-2012
Jan-2013
Feb-2013
Mar-2013

3359.83
3957.96
4436.37
4343.10
4571.11
4859.31
4994.11
4953.54
5099.74
5156.22
4839.57
5178.15
5294.76
5052.97
5187.78
5364.90
5457.24
5811.48
6096.11
6055.33
5421.75
5782.71
5400.92
5538.42
5839.09
5492.20
5472.64
5596.59
5076.74
5015.58
5060.02
5004.28
4782.36
4920.02
5409.09
5298.48
5254.48
4966.51
5074.21
5222.01
5329.72
5485.27
5688.63
5679.62
5890.96
6023.12
5893.59
5782.26

3469.36
4048.58
3997.79
4218.67
4218.19
4518.69
4664.58
4715.74
5046.62
5062.58
4919.96
5655.23
5340.08
4870.76
5088.74
5358.03
5212.27
5703.94
6075.68
5750.28
5858.89
5780.56
5587.29
6297.18
5885.37
5731.66
6014.04
6136.86
5690.46
5607.23
5253.01
5058.02
4961.64
5351.79
5938.57
5745.45
5055.84
4724.10
4560.20
4816.35
4855.64
5199.63
5506.63
5145.52
5621.69
5765.53
5814.92
5864.81

0.17802
0.12087
-0.02102
0.05250
0.06305
0.02774
-0.00812
0.02952
0.01108
-0.06141
0.06996
0.02252
-0.04566
0.02668
0.03414
0.01721
0.06491
0.04898
-0.00669
-0.10463
0.06658
-0.06602
0.02546
0.05429
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0.02265
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0.02878
0.09940
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-0.05481
0.02169
0.02913
0.02063
0.02918
0.03707
-0.00158
0.03721
0.02243
-0.02151
-0.01889
-1.00000

-109.53
-90.62
438.58
124.43
352.92
340.62
329.53
237.80
53.13
93.64
-80.39
-477.08
-45.33
182.21
99.03
6.88
244.97
107.54
20.43
305.05
-437.14
2.15
-186.37
-758.76
-46.28
-239.46
-541.40
-540.27
-613.71
-591.65
-192.99
-53.75
-179.28
-431.78
-529.48
-446.97
198.64
242.40
514.02
405.66
474.08
285.64
182.00
534.10
269.26
257.58
78.66
-82.55