OPTIMISM SLOWLY GIVING WAY TO SCEPTIC ISM

will Hit 60 on Worsening Pitch ET dt. 12-04-13

Fragile external economy, ea!ening A"ian c#rrencie" trigger concern"
MC GOVARDHANA RANGAN & RUCHIRA ROY MUMBAI
T$e In%ian r#&ee may %e&reciate '() *er"#" t$e +S %ollar ,y -ecem,er a" ea!ne"" in ot$er
A"ian c#rrencie" con*erge" it$ In%ia." /ragile external economy an% a "nail0&ace% reco*ery in
in%#"trial acti*ity to &#mmel t$e c#rrency1 At lea"t /i*e to& c#rrency tra%er" an% economi"t" "ay
t$e &ro,a,ility o/ t$e r#&ee /alling to 2( to t$e +S %ollar i" $ig$er t$an it mo*ing toar%" 3(
it$ recor% /oreign /#n% /lo" o/ t$e la"t eig$t mont$" ta&ering o//1 T$i" i" largely on acco#nt o/
t$e ,oo"t in "entiment /olloing a ra"$ o/ re/orm" /ailing to tran"late into real ,#"ine"" acti*ity1
For t$e /ir"t time in /i*e mont$", /oreign in*e"tor" are "$oing /atig#e, "elling e4#itie" /or "ix
%ay" on t$e trot a/ter in*e"ting a recor% 562 ,illion in "toc!" an% ,on%" "ince Se&tem,er a/ter P
C$i%am,aram ret#rne% to lea% t$e /inance mini"try1 T$e /lo" in e4#itie" $a*e alrea%y come in,
"ai% A"$i"$ Vai%ya, $ea% o/ /ixe% income an% c#rrency tra%ing at Si"" ,an! +7S1 I/ t$e"e
/lo" re*er"e, t$e r#&ee co#l% ,e /#rt$er #n%er &re""#re1 I can "ee t$e r#&ee going %on to 3802(
&er %ollar ,y t$e year en%1 Wit$ general election" %#e in a year, e are #nli!ely to "ee any
c$ange in t$e ,#"ine"" en*ironment1 T$e In%ian r#&ee may get ca#g$t in t$e t"#nami o/ A"ian
c#rrencie" %e&reciation1