EVALUACION ECONOMICA A PRECIOS DE MERCADO ALTERNATIVA UNICA (EN S/.

AOS
INVERSION
0
5,738,691.51
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
VANE
TASA DE DESCUENTO

COSTOS
OPERACIN

COSTOS
MATENIMIENTO

403,142.26
403,142.26
403,142.26
403,142.26
403,142.26
403,142.26
403,142.26
403,142.26
403,142.26
403,142.26
403,142.26
403,142.26
403,142.26
403,142.26
403,142.26
403,142.26
403,142.26
403,142.26
403,142.26
403,142.26

100,201.64
100,201.64
100,201.64
100,201.64
100,201.64
100,201.64
100,201.64
100,201.64
100,201.64
100,201.64
100,201.64
100,201.64
100,201.64
100,201.64
100,201.64
100,201.64
100,201.64
100,201.64
100,201.64
100,201.64

TOTAL
5,738,691.51
503,343.90
503,343.90
503,343.90
503,343.90
503,343.90
503,343.90
503,343.90
503,343.90
503,343.90
503,343.90
503,343.90
503,343.90
503,343.90
503,343.90
503,343.90
503,343.90
503,343.90
503,343.90
503,343.90
503,343.90
S/. 9,746,984.13

11%

BENEFICIOS
TOTALES
1,437,798.15
1,465,908.43
1,494,569.68
1,523,792.68
1,553,588.46
1,583,968.24
1,614,943.45
1,646,525.78
1,678,727.13
1,711,559.62
1,745,035.63
1,779,167.77
1,813,968.90
1,849,452.13
1,885,630.83
1,922,518.63
1,960,129.44
1,998,477.42
2,037,577.01
2,077,442.96
S/. 12,992,491.64
VAN
TIR
B/C

BENEFICIOS
NETOS
-5,738,691.51
934,454.25
962,564.54
991,225.78
1,020,448.79
1,050,244.56
1,080,624.34
1,111,599.55
1,143,181.89
1,175,383.23
1,208,215.72
1,241,691.73
1,275,823.87
1,310,625.00
1,346,108.23
1,382,286.93
1,419,174.73
1,456,785.54
1,495,133.52
1,534,233.11
1,574,099.06
3,245,507.51
18.15%
1.33

EVALUACION ECONOMICA A PRECIOS SOCIALES ALTERNATIVA UNICA (EN S/.)

AOS
INVERSION
0
4,820,500.87
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
VANE
TASA DE DESCUENTO

COSTOS
OPERACIN

COSTOS
MATENIMIENTO

350,493.19
350,493.19
350,493.19
350,493.19
350,493.19
350,493.19
350,493.19
350,493.19
350,493.19
350,493.19
350,493.19
350,493.19
350,493.19
350,493.19
350,493.19
350,493.19
350,493.19
350,493.19
350,493.19
350,493.19

87,725.48
87,725.48
87,725.48
87,725.48
87,725.48
87,725.48
87,725.48
87,725.48
87,725.48
87,725.48
87,725.48
87,725.48
87,725.48
87,725.48
87,725.48
87,725.48
87,725.48
87,725.48
87,725.48
87,725.48
11%

TOTAL
4,820,500.87
438,218.67
438,218.67
438,218.67
438,218.67
438,218.67
438,218.67
438,218.67
438,218.67
438,218.67
438,218.67
438,218.67
438,218.67
438,218.67
438,218.67
438,218.67
438,218.67
438,218.67
438,218.67
438,218.67
438,218.67
S/. 8,310,179.95

BENEFICIOS
TOTALES
1,294,018.34
1,319,317.59
1,345,112.71
1,371,413.42
1,398,229.62
1,425,571.41
1,453,449.11
1,481,873.21
1,510,854.42
1,540,403.66
1,570,532.07
1,601,250.99
1,632,572.01
1,664,506.91
1,697,067.75
1,730,266.77
1,764,116.49
1,798,629.67
1,833,819.31
1,869,698.67
S/. 11,693,242.47
VAN
TIR
B/C

BENEFICIOS
NETOS
-4,820,500.87
855,799.66
881,098.92
906,894.04
933,194.74
960,010.94
987,352.74
1,015,230.43
1,043,654.53
1,072,635.74
1,102,184.99
1,132,313.39
1,163,032.32
1,194,353.33
1,226,288.24
1,258,849.07
1,292,048.10
1,325,897.82
1,360,411.00
1,395,600.64
1,431,479.99
S/. 3,383,062.5
19.76%
1.41

RESUMEN DE INDICADORES
INDICADORES
A PRECIOS DE
A PRECIOS
MERCADO
SOCIALES
INVERSION (S/.)
5,738,692
4,820,501
VAN (S/.)
3,245,508
3,383,063
TIR
18.15%
19.76%
B/C
1.33
1.41
ANALISIS DE SENSIBILIDAD (A PRECIOS DE MERCADO) : ESCENARIOS DE SENSIBILIDAD ALTERNATIVA I
CASO A :
INCREMENTO DE COSTOS
BENEFICIOS CONSTANTES
CASO A :
VARIACION DE COSTOS
BENEFICIOS CONSTANTES

AOS
INVERSION
0
6,312,560.66
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
VANE
TASA DE DESCUENTO

CASO B :
DISMINUCION DE BENEFICIOS
COSTOS CONSTANTES
10%
0%
COSTOS
OPERACIN

COSTOS
MATENIMIENTO

443,456.49
443,456.49
443,456.49
443,456.49
443,456.49
443,456.49
443,456.49
443,456.49
443,456.49
443,456.49
443,456.49
443,456.49
443,456.49
443,456.49
443,456.49
443,456.49
443,456.49
443,456.49
443,456.49
443,456.49

110,221.80
110,221.80
110,221.80
110,221.80
110,221.80
110,221.80
110,221.80
110,221.80
110,221.80
110,221.80
110,221.80
110,221.80
110,221.80
110,221.80
110,221.80
110,221.80
110,221.80
110,221.80
110,221.80
110,221.80

INVERSION
5,738,691.51

TOTAL
6,312,560.66
553,678.29
553,678.29
553,678.29
553,678.29
553,678.29
553,678.29
553,678.29
553,678.29
553,678.29
553,678.29
553,678.29
553,678.29
553,678.29
553,678.29
553,678.29
553,678.29
553,678.29
553,678.29
553,678.29
553,678.29
S/. 10,721,682.54

11%

CASO B
VARIACION DE COSTO Y BENEFICIOS
COSTOS
BENEFICIOS

AOS
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7

CASO C :
INCREMENTO DE COSTOS
DISMINUCION DE BENEFICIOS

BENEFICIOS
COV
1,437,798.15
1,465,908.43
1,494,569.68
1,523,792.68
1,553,588.46
1,583,968.24
1,614,943.45
1,646,525.78
1,678,727.13
1,711,559.62
1,745,035.63
1,779,167.77
1,813,968.90
1,849,452.13
1,885,630.83
1,922,518.63
1,960,129.44
1,998,477.42
2,037,577.01
2,077,442.96
S/. 12,992,491.64
VAN
TIR
B/C

BENEFICIOS
NETOS
-6,312,560.66
884,119.86
912,230.15
940,891.39
970,114.40
999,910.17
1,030,289.95
1,061,265.16
1,092,847.50
1,125,048.84
1,157,881.33
1,191,357.34
1,225,489.48
1,260,290.61
1,295,773.84
1,331,952.54
1,368,840.34
1,406,451.15
1,444,799.13
1,483,898.72
1,523,764.67
S/. 2,270,809.09
15.64%
1.21

0%
-10%

COSTOS
OPERACIN

COSTOS
MATENIMIENTO

403,142.26
403,142.26
403,142.26
403,142.26
403,142.26
403,142.26
403,142.26

100,201.64
100,201.64
100,201.64
100,201.64
100,201.64
100,201.64
100,201.64

TOTAL
5,738,691.51
503,343.90
503,343.90
503,343.90
503,343.90
503,343.90
503,343.90
503,343.90

BENEFICIOS
COV
1,294,018.34
1,319,317.59
1,345,112.71
1,371,413.42
1,398,229.62
1,425,571.41
1,453,449.11

BENEFICIOS
NETOS
-5,738,691.51
790,674.44
815,973.69
841,768.81
868,069.52
894,885.72
922,227.51
950,105.21

8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
VANE
TASA DE DESCUENTO

403,142.26
403,142.26
403,142.26
403,142.26
403,142.26
403,142.26
403,142.26
403,142.26
403,142.26
403,142.26
403,142.26
403,142.26
403,142.26

503,343.90
503,343.90
503,343.90
503,343.90
503,343.90
503,343.90
503,343.90
503,343.90
503,343.90
503,343.90
503,343.90
503,343.90
503,343.90
S/. 9,746,984.13
11%

CASO C
VARIACION DE COSTO Y BENEFICIOS
COSTOS
BENEFICIOS

AOS
INVERSION
0
6,312,560.66
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
VANE
TASA DE DESCUENTO

100,201.64
100,201.64
100,201.64
100,201.64
100,201.64
100,201.64
100,201.64
100,201.64
100,201.64
100,201.64
100,201.64
100,201.64
100,201.64

1,481,873.21
1,510,854.42
1,540,403.66
1,570,532.07
1,601,250.99
1,632,572.01
1,664,506.91
1,697,067.75
1,730,266.77
1,764,116.49
1,798,629.67
1,833,819.31
1,869,698.67
S/. 11,693,242.47
VAN
TIR
B/C

978,529.31
1,007,510.52
1,037,059.76
1,067,188.17
1,097,907.09
1,129,228.11
1,161,163.02
1,193,723.85
1,226,922.87
1,260,772.60
1,295,285.78
1,330,475.41
1,366,354.77
S/. 1,946,258.34
15.39%
1.20

10%
-10%

COSTOS
OPERACIN

COSTOS
MATENIMIENTO

443,456.49
443,456.49
443,456.49
443,456.49
443,456.49
443,456.49
443,456.49
443,456.49
443,456.49
443,456.49
443,456.49
443,456.49
443,456.49
443,456.49
443,456.49
443,456.49
443,456.49
443,456.49
443,456.49
443,456.49

110,221.80
110,221.80
110,221.80
110,221.80
110,221.80
110,221.80
110,221.80
110,221.80
110,221.80
110,221.80
110,221.80
110,221.80
110,221.80
110,221.80
110,221.80
110,221.80
110,221.80
110,221.80
110,221.80
110,221.80

TOTAL
6,312,560.66
553,678.29
553,678.29
553,678.29
553,678.29
553,678.29
553,678.29
553,678.29
553,678.29
553,678.29
553,678.29
553,678.29
553,678.29
553,678.29
553,678.29
553,678.29
553,678.29
553,678.29
553,678.29
553,678.29
553,678.29
S/. 10,721,682.54

11%

BENEFICIOS
COV
1,294,018.34
1,319,317.59
1,345,112.71
1,371,413.42
1,398,229.62
1,425,571.41
1,453,449.11
1,481,873.21
1,510,854.42
1,540,403.66
1,570,532.07
1,601,250.99
1,632,572.01
1,664,506.91
1,697,067.75
1,730,266.77
1,764,116.49
1,798,629.67
1,833,819.31
1,869,698.67
S/. 11,693,242.47
VAN
TIR
B/C

BENEFICIOS
NETOS
-6,312,560.66
740,340.05
765,639.30
791,434.42
817,735.13
844,551.33
871,893.12
899,770.82
928,194.92
957,176.13
986,725.37
1,016,853.78
1,047,572.70
1,078,893.72
1,110,828.63
1,143,389.46
1,176,588.48
1,210,438.21
1,244,951.39
1,280,141.02
1,316,020.38
S/. 971,559.93
13.04%
1.09

RESUMEN DE ANALISIS DE CENSIBILIDAD A PRECIOS DE MERCADO

CASOS
VARIACION
CASO A :
VARIACION DE COSTOS
10%
BENEFICIOS CONSTANTES
0%
CASO B
VARIACION DE COSTO Y BENEFICIOS
COSTOS
0%
BENEFICIOS
-10%
CASO C
VARIACION DE COSTO Y BENEFICIOS
COSTOS
10%
BENEFICIOS
-10%

INVERSION

VAN

TIR

B/C

6,312,560.66

S/. 2,270,809.09

15.64%

1.21

5,738,691.51

S/. 1,946,258.34

15.39%

1.20

6,312,560.66

S/. 971,559.93

13.04%

1.09

ANALISIS DE SENSIBILIDAD (A PRECIOS SOCIALES) : ESCENARIOS DE SENSIBILIDAD ALTERNATIVA UNICA

CASO A :
INCREMENTO DE COSTOS
BENEFICIOS CONSTANTES
CASO A :
VARIACION DE COSTOS
BENEFICIOS CONSTANTES

AOS
INVERSION
0
5,302,550.96
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
VANE
TASA DE DESCUENTO

CASO B :
DISMINUCION DE BENEFICIOS
COSTOS CONSTANTES
10%
0%
COSTOS
OPERACIN

COSTOS
MATENIMIENTO

385,542.51
385,542.51
385,542.51
385,542.51
385,542.51
385,542.51
385,542.51
385,542.51
385,542.51
385,542.51
385,542.51
385,542.51
385,542.51
385,542.51
385,542.51
385,542.51
385,542.51
385,542.51
385,542.51
385,542.51

96,498.03
96,498.03
96,498.03
96,498.03
96,498.03
96,498.03
96,498.03
96,498.03
96,498.03
96,498.03
96,498.03
96,498.03
96,498.03
96,498.03
96,498.03
96,498.03
96,498.03
96,498.03
96,498.03
96,498.03

TOTAL
5,302,550.96
482,040.54
482,040.54
482,040.54
482,040.54
482,040.54
482,040.54
482,040.54
482,040.54
482,040.54
482,040.54
482,040.54
482,040.54
482,040.54
482,040.54
482,040.54
482,040.54
482,040.54
482,040.54
482,040.54
482,040.54
S/. 9,141,197.94

11%

CASO B
VARIACION DE COSTO Y BENEFICIOS
COSTOS
BENEFICIOS

AOS
INVERSION
0
4,820,500.87
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
VANE
TASA DE DESCUENTO

CASO C :
INCREMENTO DE COSTOS
DISMINUCION DE BENEFICIOS

BENEFICIOS
COV
1,294,018.34
1,319,317.59
1,345,112.71
1,371,413.42
1,398,229.62
1,425,571.41
1,453,449.11
1,481,873.21
1,510,854.42
1,540,403.66
1,570,532.07
1,601,250.99
1,632,572.01
1,664,506.91
1,697,067.75
1,730,266.77
1,764,116.49
1,798,629.67
1,833,819.31
1,869,698.67
S/. 11,693,242.47
VAN
TIR
B/C

BENEFICIOS
NETOS
-5,302,550.96
811,977.80
837,277.05
863,072.17
889,372.88
916,189.08
943,530.87
971,408.57
999,832.67
1,028,813.88
1,058,363.12
1,088,491.53
1,119,210.45
1,150,531.47
1,182,466.37
1,215,027.21
1,248,226.23
1,282,075.95
1,316,589.13
1,351,778.77
1,387,658.13
S/. 2,552,044.53
17.12%
1.28

0%
-10%

COSTOS
OPERACIN

COSTOS
MATENIMIENTO

350,493.19
350,493.19
350,493.19
350,493.19
350,493.19
350,493.19
350,493.19
350,493.19
350,493.19
350,493.19
350,493.19
350,493.19
350,493.19
350,493.19
350,493.19
350,493.19
350,493.19
350,493.19
350,493.19
350,493.19

87,725.48
87,725.48
87,725.48
87,725.48
87,725.48
87,725.48
87,725.48
87,725.48
87,725.48
87,725.48
87,725.48
87,725.48
87,725.48
87,725.48
87,725.48
87,725.48
87,725.48
87,725.48
87,725.48
87,725.48
11%

TOTAL
4,820,500.87
438,218.67
438,218.67
438,218.67
438,218.67
438,218.67
438,218.67
438,218.67
438,218.67
438,218.67
438,218.67
438,218.67
438,218.67
438,218.67
438,218.67
438,218.67
438,218.67
438,218.67
438,218.67
438,218.67
438,218.67
S/. 8,310,179.95

BENEFICIOS
COV
1,164,616.50
1,187,385.83
1,210,601.44
1,234,272.07
1,258,406.65
1,283,014.27
1,308,104.20
1,333,685.89
1,359,768.98
1,386,363.29
1,413,478.86
1,441,125.89
1,469,314.81
1,498,056.22
1,527,360.97
1,557,240.09
1,587,704.84
1,618,766.71
1,650,437.38
1,682,728.80
S/. 10,523,918.23
VAN
TIR
B/C

BENEFICIOS
NETOS
-4,820,500.87
726,397.83
749,167.16
772,382.77
796,053.40
820,187.98
844,795.60
869,885.52
895,467.21
921,550.30
948,144.62
975,260.19
1,002,907.22
1,031,096.13
1,059,837.55
1,089,142.30
1,119,021.42
1,149,486.17
1,180,548.03
1,212,218.71
1,244,510.13
S/. 2,213,738.28
16.86%
1.27

CASO C
VARIACION DE COSTO Y BENEFICIOS
COSTOS
BENEFICIOS

AOS
INVERSION
0
5,302,550.96
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
VANE
TASA DE DESCUENTO

10%
-10%

COSTOS
OPERACIN

COSTOS
MATENIMIENTO

385,542.51
385,542.51
385,542.51
385,542.51
385,542.51
385,542.51
385,542.51
385,542.51
385,542.51
385,542.51
385,542.51
385,542.51
385,542.51
385,542.51
385,542.51
385,542.51
385,542.51
385,542.51
385,542.51
385,542.51

96,498.03
96,498.03
96,498.03
96,498.03
96,498.03
96,498.03
96,498.03
96,498.03
96,498.03
96,498.03
96,498.03
96,498.03
96,498.03
96,498.03
96,498.03
96,498.03
96,498.03
96,498.03
96,498.03
96,498.03

TOTAL
5,302,550.96
482,040.54
482,040.54
482,040.54
482,040.54
482,040.54
482,040.54
482,040.54
482,040.54
482,040.54
482,040.54
482,040.54
482,040.54
482,040.54
482,040.54
482,040.54
482,040.54
482,040.54
482,040.54
482,040.54
482,040.54
S/. 9,141,197.94

11%

BENEFICIOS
COV
1,164,616.50
1,187,385.83
1,210,601.44
1,234,272.07
1,258,406.65
1,283,014.27
1,308,104.20
1,333,685.89
1,359,768.98
1,386,363.29
1,413,478.86
1,441,125.89
1,469,314.81
1,498,056.22
1,527,360.97
1,557,240.09
1,587,704.84
1,618,766.71
1,650,437.38
1,682,728.80
S/. 10,523,918.23
VAN
TIR
B/C

BENEFICIOS
NETOS
-5,302,550.96
682,575.96
705,345.29
728,560.90
752,231.53
776,366.11
800,973.73
826,063.66
851,645.35
877,728.44
904,322.75
931,438.32
959,085.35
987,274.27
1,016,015.68
1,045,320.43
1,075,199.55
1,105,664.31
1,136,726.17
1,168,396.84
1,200,688.26
S/. 1,382,720.29
14.40%
1.15

RESUMEN DE ANALISIS DE SENSIBILIDAD A PRECIOS SOCIALES

CASOS
VARIACION
CASO A :
VARIACION DE COSTOS
10%
BENEFICIOS CONSTANTES
0%
CASO B
VARIACION DE COSTO Y BENEFICIOS
COSTOS
0%
BENEFICIOS
-10%
CASO C
VARIACION DE COSTO Y BENEFICIOS
COSTOS
10%
BENEFICIOS
-10%

INVERSION

VAN

TIR

B/C

5,302,550.96

S/. 2,552,044.53

17.12%

1.28

4,820,500.87

S/. 2,213,738.28

16.86%

1.27

5,302,550.96

S/. 1,382,720.29

14.40%

1.15