S3 INFERENTIAL STATISTICS SOLUTIONS of EXERCISES

I. DISCRETE LAWS

T1 : Recognize and use a hypergeometric a!
8 different letters have to be dran fro! o"r al#habet$ Then% e loo& at the!$
A 's"((ess) letter is a voel$
The rando! variable X is the n"!ber of s"((ess a!on* the 8 dran letters$

a$ +"stif, that the #robabilit, distrib"tion of X is h,#er*eo!etri( and *ive its #ara!eters$
- The sa!#le s#a(e is #artitioned in an event and its (ontrar, .s"((ess / voel 0 fail"re /
(onsonant1$ N / 23% a / 3$
- The drain* is #erfor!ed itho"t re#la(e!ent and the order doesn4t !atter$
- After 8 drain*s .n / 81% X is the n"!ber of s"((ess$

5en(e% the distrib"tion of X is H.8 0 3 0 231$

b$ Cal("late #.X / 61% #.X / 31% #.X / 81$
( ) ( ) ( ) , ; , ;
6 8 3 7
3 26 3 26
8 8
23 23
C C C C
# 6 6 6863 # 3 6 8987 # 8
C C
X X X

= = = = = i!#ossible

($ Cal("late the e:#e(ted val"e and the standard deviation of X 0 (o!!ent E.X1$
( ) ( )
( )
( ) ( )
, ; ,
,
2 2
N
3 N 3 26 88
E 8 8 8;3 < 8 8 6227
N 23 N N 8 23 27
< 8 6882
a a
a n
X n X n
X X

= = = =

=

The e:#e(tation .8$8;31 allos "s to (on(l"de that *ettin* 2 voels is !ore li&el, to o(("r
than an, other n"!ber% b, drain* at the sa!e ti!e 8 letters fro! o"r al#habet$
On avera*e = 8%8;3 s"((ess ea(h 8 dran letters$

d$ >"ild a bar?(hart of this #robabilit, distrib"tion


6
6%67
6%8
6%87
6%2
6%27
6%3
6%37
6 8 2 3 ; 7 3 @ 8

T" : Recognize and !or# !ith a $inomia distri$ution
A heel .ro"lette1 is divided into 8; sa!e?siAed se(tors$ 7 se(tors are hite and the others are
red$ After havin* s#inned the heel% the s"((ess is = Bit sto#s on a hite se(torB$ The rando!
variable X *ives% after 8 s"((essive atte!#ts% the total n"!ber of s"((ess$

a$ E:#lain h, the la of X is bino!ial and *ive its #ara!eters$

- The sa!#le s#a(e is #arted into an event and its (ontrar, .s"((ess and fail"re1$
- On ea(h tr,% the (han(e of s"((ess is invariable = p / 7C8;$
- After 8 tries .n / 81% X is the rando! n"!ber of s"((ess$

Therefore% the la of X is B.8 0 7C8;1$

b$ Cal("late #.X / 21$ On ,o"r (al("lator% *et the list of #robabilities of ea(h #ossible val"e of X$

For! = #.X / k1 /
k k n k
n
p q

C 0 ith o"r e:er(ise4s #ara!eters = /
8
8
7 9
C
8; 8;
k k
k





0
th"s = #.X / 21 /
2 3
2
8
7 9
C
8; 8;




6$2728$

Usin* ,o"r (al("lator =
Enter !an"all, the #ossible val"es k % into List8 = 6% 8% 2% 3% ;% 7% 3% @% 8
Enter the *eneral for!"la into List2 = 8CList8-.7C8;1DList8-.9C8;1D.8?List81


($ Era#h .sti(&s1 these res"lts$



d$ Cal("late the e:#e(ted val"e and the standard deviation of X% then inter#rete these val"es$

E.X1 / np / 8F7C8; 2$87@ 0 .X1 / npq 8$377
On avera*e% 2$87@ s"((ess are e:#e(ted ever, 8 atte!#ts$
The event G 3 s"((ess H is then the !ost li&el, to o(("r$
Addin* and s"bstra(tin* the standard deviation to the !ean !a&es "s b"ild an interval in
hi(h e (an find o"t the events hose #robabilities are G !"(h bi**er H than the others$
5ere% this interval is I8%7 0 ;%2J .ro"nded val"es1% into hi(h the val"es 2% 3 and ; are$
So% in !ost (ases% 2% 3 or ; s"((ess ill be rea(hed% ever, 8 tries$
T% : &sing a 'oisson(s a!
The la of variable X is bino!ial ith #ara!eters n / 76 and p / 6$63$

a$ Obtain .(al("lator list1 #.X / i1 for ea(h inte*er i fro! 6 to @$

Enter !an"all, the as&ed val"es of i into List8 = 6% 8% 2% 3% ;% 7% 3% @
Enter the *eneral for!"la into List2 = 76CList8-6%63DList8-6%9;D.76?List81


b$ +"stif, the a##ro:i!ation of this la b, a KoissonLs hose #ara!eter has to be *iven$

.OUI !eans MESN1
So% a relevant Koisson4s la do e:ist% hose res"lts ill be (lose to the bino!ial realit,$

/ np / 3$ The Koisson4s la is here P.31$

($ Eive% b, "sin* KoissonLs la table% the #robabilities as&ed above$
Co!#are the! to the ones obtained ith the bino!ial la$

Oe (an read inside the Koisson4s la table =

Sli*ht differen(es (an be seen beteen the #robabilit,
distrib"tions .here and P"estion a$1% b"t these #robabilities
are ver, si!ilar$

d$ Usin* the for!"la *iven on #a*e 86% dis#la, those #robabilities on a ne list of ,o"r
(al("lator$

Enter the *eneral for!"la into List3 = eD.?31-3DList8List8Q





E)ercise 1
A s"#er!ar&et sells 2; fr"it s#e(ies% (o"ntin* 8 'bio) label$ A blind (ontrol (onsists in (hoosin* 86
fr"its of different s#e(ies$ The variable X *ives the n"!ber of 'bio) s#e(ies a!on* these 86$
8$ Eive% ith e:#lanations% the #robabilit, la of X$
For ea(h (hosen fr"it e (onsider 2 events = 'bio) .s"((ess1 or 'not bio)$
The (hoi(e is !ade ith different s#e(ies% so = no re#etition$
X *ives the n"!ber of s"((ess a!on* 86 rando!l, ta&en fr"its$
5en(e% the la of X is H.86 0 8 0 2;1$
2$ Cal("late its e:#e(ted val"e and standard deviation$
E.X1 / 86F8C2; / 3%333 bio s#e(ies$
<.X1 / 86F8C2;F83C2;F8;C23 / 8%372@$ .X1 / 8%833 bio s#e(ies
3$ Ohat is the #robabilit, that less than to 'bio) s#e(ies o"ld be (hosen R
#.X S 21 / #.X / 61 T #.X / 81 / 6%66;8 T 6%6;3@ / 6%6768$

E)ercise "
A (ar driver !eets five si*nal li*hts on his a,$ The, share the sa!e d"ration of red and *reen
li*htenin* = ;6 se(onds *reen and 26 se(onds red$ Unfort"natel,% the, are not s,n(hroniAed% so
that the (olor of one li*ht is inde#endent of the (olor of another one$
8$ Ohen a##roa(hin* the first li*ht% hat4s the #robabilit, it ill be *reen R
The li*ht is *reen d"rin* ;6 se(onds ever, 36 se(onds% so 2C3 of the ti!e$ # / 2C3$
2$ Ohat4s the #robabilit, that the li*hts ill all be *reen R
For ea(h li*ht e (onsider 2 events = '*reen) .s"((ess1 or 'red)$
Ea(h ti!e% the #robabilit, of s"((ess is 2C3% invariable$
Let be X = n"!ber of s"((ess after 7 li*hts$ 5en(e% the la of X is >.7 0 2C31$
#.X / 71 / .
7 6
7
7
2 8
6 838@
3 3
C





3$ Ohat4s the #robabilit, that at least to li*hts ill be red R
#.X 31 / 8 #.X / 71 #.X / ;1 6$7398
;$ Ohat4s the !ean e:#e(ted n"!ber of *reen li*hts drivin* this a, R
E.X1 / 7F2C3 3$333 *reen li*hts$

E)ercise %
The *er!ination (a#a(it, of a seed is 6$8 .#robabilit, to *er!inate1$
8$ 8 seeds are son$ Cal("late the #robabilities of the folloin* events =
a$ e:a(tl, 7 seeds ill *er!inate$
For ea(h seed e (onsider 2 events = 'ill *er!inate) .s"((ess1 or 'on4t *er!inate)$
Ea(h ti!e% the #robabilit, of s"((ess is 6$8% invariable$
Let be X = n"!ber of s"((ess a!on* 8 seeds$ 5en(e% the la of X is >.8 0 6$81$
#.X / 71 / . . .
7 7 3
8
6 8 6 2 6 8;38 C
b$ At least @ seeds ill *er!inate$
#.X U 31 / #.X / @1 T #.X / 81 6$7633
2$ Ohen a seed has *er!inated% the #robabilit, that a sl"* eats the ,o"n* #lant is 6$;$
a$ Cal("late the #robabilit, that a seed ill finall, be(o!e a *ron #lant$
The seed !"st *er!inate ANV not been eaten$ The #robabilit, it o"ld o(("r is =
6$8F6$3 / 6$;8$
b$ 5o !an, seeds !"st be son to *et !ore than 99W (han(es of *ettin* at least
one *ron #lant R
For ea(h seed e (onsider 2 events = 'ill be(o!e a #lant) .s"((ess1 or on4t$
Ea(h ti!e% the #robabilit, of s"((ess is 6$;8% invariable$
Let be M = n"!ber of #lants .s"((ess1 ith n seeds$ 5en(e% the la of M is >.n 0 6$;81$
Oe ant that #.X / 61 S 6$68% so = . . . . .
6 6
6 ;8 6 72 6 68 6 72 6 68
n n
n
C < < $
Mo" (an test so!e val"es for n% or solve this eP"ation b, the lo*arith!s =
ln .
.
ln .
6 68
@ 6;2
6 72
n >
Mo" ill have to se at least 8 seeds if ,o" ant to be 99W s"re to *et at least one #lant$

E)ercise *
A((ordin* to a s"rve,% 86W of the ("sto!ers of a #rod"(t 'A) are satisfied$
Choosin* rando!l, 86 ("sto!ers of this #rod"(t% hat4s the #robabilit, thatN
a$ the,4re all satisfied R
For ea(h #erson e (onsider 2 events = 'is satisfied) .s"((ess1 or not$
Ea(h ti!e% the #robabilit, of s"((ess is 6$8% invariable$
Let be X = n"!ber of satisfied ("sto!er .s"((ess1 a!on* 86 #ersons$
5en(e% the la of X is >.86 0 6$81$
#.X / 861 / . . .
86 86 6
86
6 8 6 2 6 86@; C $
b$ 86W of the! are satisfied R
#.X / 81 / . . .
8 8 2
86
6 8 6 2 6 3626 C $
($ at least 86W are satisfied R
#.X 81 / #.X / 81 T #.X / 91 T #.X / 861 6$3@@8$

E)ercise +
3W of Fren(h #eo#le are (lients of the !obile #honin* o#erator 'Mello)$
A s"rve, (onsists in as&in* to 76 rando!l, (hosen Fren(h #eo#le hi(h is their !obile #honin*
o#erator$ The variable X *ives the n"!ber of 'Mello) (lients a!on* these 76 #eo#le$

8$ a$ +"stif, and *ive the #robabilit, la of X$
For ea(h #erson e (onsider 2 events = 'is a Mello (lient) .s"((ess1 or not$
Ea(h ti!e% the #robabilit, of s"((ess is 6$63% invariable$
X is the n"!ber of s"((ess a!on* 76 #ersons$ 5en(e% the la of X is >.76 0 6$631$
b$ Ohat are the (han(es that the #o#"lation #ro#ortion of (lients o"ld be the sa!e
into the sa!#le R
3W of 76 #eo#le are 3 #eo#le$ #.X / 31 / . . .
3 3 ;@
76
6 63 6 9; 6 2388 C

($ Ohat is s#e(ial ith this for!er #robabilit, R
As 3 is the e:#e(ted val"e% it is the !ost li&el, n"!ber of s"((ess$
d$ Ohat4s the #robabilit, that none of the 76 #eo#le o"ld be a 'Mello) (lient R
#.X / 61 / . . .
6 6 76
76
6 63 6 9; 6 6;733 C
e$ Ohat4s the #robabilit, that there o"ld be at least ; 'Mello) (lients R
#.X ;1 / 8 ? #.X / 61 ? #.X / 81 ? #.X / 21 #.X / 31 6$372@$

2$ In this #art% the n"!ber of #ersons to (all is still "n&non$ 5o !an, #eo#le o"ld have
to be (alled% to *et !ore than 99W (han(es findin* at least one 'Mello) (lient R
The la of X is no >.n 0 6$631$
Oe ant that #.X / 61 S 6$68% so = . . . . .
6 6
6 63 6 9; 6 68 6 9; 6 68
n n
n
C < < $
Mo" (an test so!e val"es for n% or solve this eP"ation b, the lo*arith!s =
ln .
.
ln .
6 68
@; ;3
6 9;
n >
Mo" ill have to intervie at least @7 #ersons if ,o" ant to be 99W s"re to find at least
one Mello (lient$

E)ercise ,
The sho# '5i*hTe(h) sells (o!#"ters$ The variable n"!ber of dail, sales is distrib"ted li&e a
Koisson4s la hose #ara!eter is ;$ Cal("late the #robabilit, that the ne:t da,N
a$ No (o!#"ter o"ld be sold
X = n"!ber of sales in a da,$ #.X / 61 6$68832
b$ At least one (o!#"ter o"ld be sold
#.X 81 / 8 ? #.X / 61 6$98838$
($ E:a(tl, 2 (o!#"ters o"ld be sold$
#.X / 21 6$8;373$

E)ercise - .deter!ine X% n% p and X"stif, the "se of a Koisson4s la1
On a s"rve, i!#l,in* a lar*e n"!ber of #ersons% onl, 2W of the! a((e#t to *ive their na!e$
Eiven that one of the investi*ators has to intervie 276 #eo#le% (al("late the #robabilit, thatN
a$ All these #eo#le on4t *ive their na!e$
For ea(h #erson e (onsider 2 events = '*ives his na!e) .s"((ess1 or not$
Oith ea(h #erson% the #robabilit, of s"((ess is 6$62% invariable$
X is the n"!ber of s"((ess a!on* 276 #ersons$ 5en(e% the la of X is >.276 0 6$621$
Oo"ld be a Koisson4s la reliable R
n U 36 R Mes .n / 2761 0 # S 6$8 R Mes .# / 6$621 0 n#P S 86 R Mes .n#P / ;$91
>.276 0 6$621 ill be a##ro:i!ated b, K.71 ith a(("ra(,$ . / n# / 71
#.X / 61 6$663@;
b$ At least 7 #eo#le ill *ive their na!e$
#.X 71 / 8 ?
( )
;
6
# X
k
k
=
=

6$7797


E)ercise .
A bo: (ontains 276 !at(hes$ It has been e:#osed to !oist"re% so that 26W of !at(hes on4t li*hten$
Ta&in* at rando! 86 !at(hes% the variable X *ives the n"!ber of !at(hes that ill li*hten$
8$ Ve!onstrate that the la of X is bino!ial and *ive its #ara!eters and e:#e(ted val"e$
For ea(h !at(h e (onsider 2 events = 'it li*htens) .s"((ess1 or not$
Oith ea(h !at(h% the #robabilit, of s"((ess is 6$86% (onsidered invariable be(a"se the
sa!#le .86 !at(hes1 is little (o!#ared to the #o#"lation .276 !at(hes1$
X is the n"!ber of s"((ess a!on* 86 !at(hes$ 5en(e% the la of X is >.86 0 6$81$

2$ Cal("late the folloin* #robabilities =
a$ No !at(h ill li*hten
#.X / 61 / , , ,
6 6 86 86 @
86
6 8 6 2 6 2 86 C

=
b$ The, ill all li*hten
#.X / 861 / , , , .
86 86 6 86
86
6 8 6 2 6 8 6 86@; C =
($ At least 3 on4t li*hten
#.X S 81 / 8 #.X / 861 #.X / 91 #.X / 81 . . . . 8 6 86@; 6 238; 6 3626 6 3222 =
3$ a$ Loo& a*ain for the above #robabilities% this ti!e "sin* a Koisson4s la$
n U 36 R No .n / 861 0 # S 6$8 R No .# / 6$81 0 n#P S 86 R Mes .n#P / 8$31
Let4s "se K.81 . / n# / 81 and read the Koisson4s table =
#.X / 61 / 6$6663; 0 #.X / 861 / 6$69923 0 #.X S 81 / 6$;7293
b$ E:#lain the differen(es of ,o"r ansers beteen P"estions 2 and 3$
To of the three needed (onditions aren4t (he(&ed = n U 36 and # S 6$8% so that e (an4t
rel, on the asso(iated Koisson4s la$

E)ercise /
In a lar*e #o#"lation are !et on avera*e 6$;W of blind #eo#le$
8$ Into a sa!#le of 866 #eo#le% hat4s the #robabilit, there4s no blind #eo#le R at least 2 R
For ea(h #erson e (onsider 2 events = 'heCshe is blind) .s"((ess1 or not$
Oith ea(h one% the #robabilit, of s"((ess is 6$66;% (onsidered invariable be(a"se the
sa!#le .866 #eo#le1 is little (o!#ared to the #o#"lation .ass"!ed to be bi*1$
X is the n"!ber of s"((ess a!on* 866 #eo#le$ 5en(e% the la of X is >.866 0 6$66;1$

#.X / 61 / . . . .
6 6 866 866
866
6 66; 6 993 6 993 6 3398 C =
#.X 21 / 8 #.X / 61 #.X / 81 6$63823

2$ Anser these P"estions "sin* the (orre(t Koisson4s la .X"stif, its "se1$
Oo"ld be a Koisson4s la reliable R
n U 36 R Mes .n / 8661 0 # S 6$8 R Mes .# / 6$66;1 0 n#P S 86 R Mes .n#P / 6$398;1
>.866 0 6$66;1 ill be a##ro:i!ated b, K.6$;1 ith a(("ra(,$ . / n# / 6$;1
#.X / 61 6$3@63
#.X 21 / 8 #.X / 61 #.X / 81 6$63877