Data Set

y x1 x2 x3
Date NFP Change Monthly 4-Wk Avg Claims Monthly Average IUR (sa) %Y/Y EWT predicted pred-act abs(miss)
Jan-94 270 342.438 2.58 11.47 303 33 33
Feb-94 192 363.250 2.63 6.59 199 7 7
Mar-94 468 340.000 2.60 12.33 326 (142) 142
Apr-94 357 341.625 2.55 6.75 289 (68) 68
May-94 339 354.625 2.60 11.29 246 (93) 93
Jun-94 310 345.313 2.55 5.78 267 (43) 43
Jul-94 359 342.688 2.48 4.49 251 (108) 108
Aug-94 303 337.813 2.50 10.66 299 (4) 4
Sep-94 354 334.125 2.48 8.89 306 (48) 48
Oct-94 206 332.875 2.38 6.94 273 67 67
Nov-94 425 329.250 2.33 9.98 280 (145) 145
Dec-94 270 325.563 2.35 3.16 296 26 26
Jan-95 321 330.125 2.33 8.12 272 (49) 49
Feb-95 211 333.188 2.30 10.14 250 39 39
Mar-95 220 341.063 2.33 8.23 213 (7) 7
Apr-95 163 345.500 2.30 1.47 167 4 4
May-95 (9) 364.375 2.33 12.17 95 104 104
Jun-95 227 369.063 2.40 6.55 86 (141) 141
Jul-95 71 371.563 2.38 6.05 62 (9) 9
Aug-95 278 360.500 2.38 5.88 122 (156) 156
Sep-95 239 363.625 2.40 2.14 107 (132) 132
Oct-95 149 366.188 2.40 12.52 113 (36) 36
Nov-95 144 374.938 2.40 3.31 48 (96) 96
Dec-95 140 366.625 2.38 2.24 81 (59) 59
Jan-96 (18) 366.125 2.35 13.49 97 115 115
Feb-96 435 382.000 2.43 8.99 30 (405) 405
Mar-96 255 378.625 2.40 (4.09) 13 (242) 242
Apr-96 165 377.563 2.33 21.34 42 (123) 123
May-96 329 347.688 2.30 (1.31) 149 (180) 180
Jun-96 271 343.750 2.28 (1.54) 161 (110) 110
Jul-96 228 339.688 2.20 14.10 187 (41) 41
Aug-96 203 331.188 2.20 2.03 209 6 6
Sep-96 218 337.188 2.20 6.50 185 (33) 33
Oct-96 238 340.625 2.15 5.80 147 (91) 91
Nov-96 292 337.563 2.15 8.02 168 (124) 124
Dec-96 177 347.813 2.20 5.60 126 (51) 51
Jan-97 229 344.563 2.18 5.10 134 (95) 95
Feb-97 294 328.688 2.10 5.97 194 (100) 100
Mar-97 317 318.750 2.03 11.31 231 (86) 86
Apr-97 291 323.938 2.00 3.71 179 (112) 112
Data Set

y x1 x2 x3
Date NFP Change Monthly 4-Wk Avg Claims Monthly Average IUR (sa) %Y/Y EWT predicted pred-act abs(miss)
May-97 262 325.438 2.00 9.39 182 (80) 80
Jun-97 246 324.500 2.00 17.69 203 (43) 43
Jul-97 276 325.563 1.95 4.92 154 (122) 122
Aug-97 (7) 325.250 2.00 6.97 178 185 185
Sep-97 506 321.125 1.93 14.75 189 (317) 317
Oct-97 339 312.500 1.90 9.46 216 (123) 123
Nov-97 307 313.250 1.90 7.95 209 (98) 98
Dec-97 298 316.063 1.93 30.31 247 (51) 51
Jan-98 268 320.500 1.90 (3.29) 147 (121) 121
Feb-98 185 317.375 1.90 10.91 192 7 7
Mar-98 148 316.813 1.90 12.26 198 50 50
Apr-98 278 312.625 1.85 8.54 195 (83) 83
May-98 401 310.000 1.80 7.52 189 (212) 212
Jun-98 205 322.500 1.85 9.30 143 (62) 62
Jul-98 121 345.000 1.95 7.67 55 (66) 66
Aug-98 355 316.750 1.83 10.16 167 (188) 188
Sep-98 221 306.875 1.80 5.38 202 (19) 19
Oct-98 192 308.938 1.80 2.36 184 (8) 8
Nov-98 285 315.250 1.83 9.50 174 (111) 111
Dec-98 344 313.813 1.85 9.01 189 (155) 155
Jan-99 121 330.375 1.90 7.24 115 (6) 6
Feb-99 410 305.063 1.88 6.76 241 (169) 169
Mar-99 106 303.188 1.85 13.51 256 150 150
Apr-99 376 308.000 1.83 7.06 208 (168) 168
May-99 213 301.625 1.80 4.54 228 15 15
Data Set

y x1 x2 x3
Date NFP Change Monthly 4-Wk Avg Claims Monthly Average IUR (sa) %Y/Y EWT predicted pred-act abs(miss)
Jun-99 266 297.688 1.80 10.44 261 (5) 5
Jul-99 291 295.375 1.80 5.99 265 (26) 26
Aug-99 192 296.188 1.80 9.08 267 75 75
Sep-99 202 287.813 1.80 9.72 313 111 111
Oct-99 408 293.125 1.70 6.21 241 (167) 167
Nov-99 294 282.063 1.70 10.32 309 15 15
Dec-99 294 281.438 1.70 16.44 324 30 30
Jan-00 249 287.063 1.70 7.52 276 27 27
Feb-00 121 294.125 1.70 10.78 245 124 124
Mar-00 472 279.625 1.70 7.52 316 (156) 156
Apr-00 286 268.813 1.60 5.06 334 48 48
May-00 225 282.500 1.60 19.43 288 63 63
Jun-00 (46) 285.750 1.60 5.48 243 289 289
Jul-00 163 294.250 1.70 7.57 238 75 75
Aug-00 3 307.125 1.70 9.39 172 169 169
Sep-00 122 305.125 1.70 8.38 181 59 59
Oct-00 (11) 299.188 1.70 13.23 222 233 233
Nov-00 231 318.125 1.75 5.94 124 (107) 107
Dec-00 138 342.813 1.85 (4.14) 7 (131) 131
Jan-01 (16) 343.188 1.90 18.11 67 83 83
Feb-01 61 361.938 1.98 6.00 (31) (92) 92
Mar-01 (30) 386.063 2.05 (0.56) (146) (116) 116
Apr-01 (281) 391.250 2.10 9.53 (136) 145 145
May-01 (44) 394.000 2.20 1.40 (131) (87) 87
Jun-01 (128) 400.750 2.30 (0.33) (135) (7) 7
Data Set

y x1 x2 x3
Date NFP Change Monthly 4-Wk Avg Claims Monthly Average IUR (sa) %Y/Y EWT predicted pred-act abs(miss)
Jul-01 (125) 396.313 2.38 3.25 (76) 49 49
Aug-01 (160) 396.875 2.43 3.67 (61) 99 99
Sep-01 (244) 414.875 2.55 (8.29) (136) 108 108
Oct-01 (325) 478.063 2.75 3.82 (380) (55) 55
Nov-01 (292) 455.750 2.83 (1.16) (243) 49 49
Dec-01 (178) 425.000 2.78 2.38 (88) 90 90
Jan-02 (132) 409.375 2.78 (10.97) (30) 102 102
Feb-02 (147) 404.313 2.75 (5.43) (1) 146 146
Mar-02 (24) 403.125 2.83 (3.01) 37 61 61
Apr-02 (85) 438.188 2.88 (5.41) (138) (53) 53
May-02 (7) 413.500 2.90 (1.72) 11 18 18
Jun-02 45 390.813 2.83 (7.24) 95 50 50
Jul-02 (97) 387.125 2.73 0.92 95 192 192
Aug-02 (16) 391.625 2.78 (6.84) 74 90 90
Sep-02 (55) 405.500 2.80 7.21 36 91 91
Oct-02 126 406.563 2.80 (6.31) 3 (123) 123
Nov-02 8 398.063 2.73 2.43 39 31 31
Dec-02 (156) 405.250 2.73 (5.95) (16) 140 140
Jan-03 83 397.563 2.68 1.71 22 (61) 61
Feb-03 (158) 405.375 2.73 1.18 (3) 155 155
Mar-03 (212) 425.875 2.80 2.26 (84) 128 128
Apr-03 (49) 429.625 2.85 2.01 (87) (38) 38
May-03 (6) 427.125 2.93 (2.88) (56) (50) 50
Jun-03 (2) 423.750 2.93 7.59 (17) (15) 15
Jul-03 25 418.500 2.85 (5.48) (41) (66) 66
Data Set

y x1 x2 x3
Date NFP Change Monthly 4-Wk Avg Claims Monthly Average IUR (sa) %Y/Y EWT predicted pred-act abs(miss)
Aug-03 (42) 400.063 2.83 (2.03) 56 98 98
Sep-03 103 401.000 2.80 0.76 47 (56) 56
Oct-03 203 383.625 2.73 2.11 116 (87) 87
Nov-03 18 368.313 2.63 (5.10) 148 130 130
Dec-03 124 360.188 2.60 2.86 199 75 75
Jan-04 150 356.438 2.50 (1.91) 173 23 23
Feb-04 43 366.813 2.48 1.08 114 71 71
Mar-04 338 347.563 2.40 7.74 204 (134) 134
Apr-04 250 346.375 2.40 1.53 198 (52) 52
May-04 310 337.563 2.38 (2.65) 228 (82) 82
Jun-04 81 345.500 2.33 6.77 186 105 105
Jul-04 47 342.875 2.28 3.15 175 128 128
Aug-04 121 341.125 2.30 8.34 204 83 83
Sep-04 160 338.000 2.28 3.63 202 42 42
Oct-04 351 337.188 2.20 (2.10) 168 (183) 183
Nov-04 64 330.688 2.15 8.31 206 142 142
Dec-04 132 329.313 2.15 10.40 217 85 85
Jan-05 182 340.063 2.13 7.60 145 (37) 37
Feb-05 221 319.438 2.10 8.05 248 27 27
Mar-05 121 327.188 2.10 1.97 194 73 73
Apr-05 312 327.938 2.08 4.56 186 (126) 126
May-05 212 326.000 2.08 13.04 213 1 1
Jun-05 259 330.750 2.08 1.09 164 (95) 95
Jul-05 322 322.563 2.00 4.72 188 (134) 134
Aug-05 190 317.313 2.00 12.52 232 42 42
Data Set

y x1 x2 x3
Date NFP Change Monthly 4-Wk Avg Claims Monthly Average IUR (sa) %Y/Y EWT predicted pred-act abs(miss)
Sep-05 87 356.000 2.13 4.55 53 (34) 34
Oct-05 98 365.313 2.18 10.29 32 (66) 66
Nov-05 380 321.625 2.08 3.85 219 (161) 161
Dec-05 160 317.875 2.08 (3.15) 225 65 65
Jan-06 294 301.125 1.98 19.81 325 31 31
Feb-06 274 289.250 1.90 7.48 337 63 63
Mar-06 282 300.250 1.90 3.69 270 (12) 12
Apr-06 151 302.125 1.88 10.89 265 114 114
May-06 24 327.625 1.90 10.27 136 112 112
Jun-06 70 313.313 1.90 0.67 194 124 124
Jul-06 186 316.375 1.90 18.46 213 27 27
Aug-06 149 316.063 1.90 (3.00) 172 23 23
Sep-06 147 318.688 1.90 2.99 169 22 22
Oct-06 82 315.688 1.90 13.13 206 124 124
Nov-06 261 321.125 1.90 7.15 164 (97) 97
Dec-06 219 323.750 1.88 33.24 193 (26) 26
Jan-07 180 317.875 1.90 (14.28) 139 (41) 41
Feb-07 36 319.188 1.93 7.55 185 149 149
Mar-07 184 314.688 1.90 10.06 205 21 21
Apr-07 35 320.938 1.90 5.59 162 127 127
May-07 156 307.375 1.90 4.25 233 77 77
Jun-07 54 315.250 1.90 10.85 203 149 149
Jul-07 (65) 312.000 1.90 0.37 200 265 265
Aug-07 (28) 318.063 1.93 11.69 199 227 227
Sep-07 100 321.063 1.90 4.62 160 60 60
Data Set

y x1 x2 x3
Date NFP Change Monthly 4-Wk Avg Claims Monthly Average IUR (sa) %Y/Y EWT predicted pred-act abs(miss)
Oct-07 165 324.063 1.95 5.01 163 (2) 2
Nov-07 215 332.813 1.98 4.84 124 (91) 91
Dec-07 120 343.188 2.03 (7.24) 62 (58) 58
Jan-08 (72) 334.438 2.05 16.78 166 238 238
Feb-08 (144) 345.313 2.08 6.65 96 240 240
Mar-08 (122) 359.563 2.18 3.54 50 172 172
Apr-08 (160) 372.000 2.25 3.14 9 169 169
May-08 (137) 370.125 2.33 0.02 40 177 177
Jun-08 (161) 379.438 2.35 4.82 9 170 170
Jul-08 (128) 383.438 2.40 1.38 (2) 126 126
Aug-08 (175) 441.375 2.53 (2.79) (277) (102) 102
Sep-08 (321) 458.188 2.68 10.43 (287) 34 34
Oct-08 (380) 481.438 2.78 (1.61) (400) (20) 20
Nov-08 (597) 510.688 3.08 (0.45) (447) 150 150
Dec-08 (681) 549.188 3.35 (3.56) (561) 120 120
Jan-09 (741) 541.063 3.55 (7.08) (452) 289 289
Feb-09 (681) 627.875 3.80 (8.50) (832) (151) 151
Mar-09 (652) 653.063 4.23 (4.00) (803) (151) 151
Apr-09 (519) 649.000 4.65 (9.32) (640) (121) 121
May-09 (303) 629.150 5.00 (10.52) (408) (105) 105
Jun-09 (463) 621.000 5.05 (8.02) (341) 122 122
Jul-09 (304) 579.563 4.70 (8.08) (245) 59 59
Aug-09 (154) 566.350 4.68 (7.25) (179) (25) 25
Sep-09 (139) 559.563 4.63 (8.44) (163) (24) 24
Oct-09 (111) 531.250 4.48 (12.48) (73) 38 38
Nov-09 (11) 502.563 4.17 (5.86) (17) (6) 6