‫‪  ٢٠١١‬‬ ‫اﻟﻌﺪد ‪٤‬‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺠﻠﺪ ‪٤‬‬ ‫ﻣﺠﻠﺔ اﻟﻘﺎدﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻠﻮم اﻟﻬﻨﺪﺳﻴﺔ‬

‫‪ ‬‬

‫ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺘﺎﺤﻴﺔ ﻜﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﻤﺎﺭﻜﻭﻓﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺨﻁﻴﻁ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﻟﻠﻨﻅﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺍﺯﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺃﺴﺘﺎﺫ ﻤﺴﺎﻋﺩ ﺩ‪ .‬ﺴﺎﻟﻡ ﻋﺒﺩﺍﷲ ﺍﻟﺩﻟﻴﻤﻲ‬
‫ﺠﺎﻤﻌﺔ ﺘﻜﺭﻴﺕ – ﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺩﺴﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺨﻼﺼﺔ‬
‫ﺘﻌﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻭﻟﻴﺔ )‪ (Reliability‬ﻭ ﺍﻻﺘﺎﺤﻴﺔ ‪ (Availability) ‬ﻤﻥ ﻤﻌﺎﻟﻡ ﺍﻟﺤﻴﺎﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﻔﺎﻋﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻌﺩﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻜﺎﺌﻥ‪ .‬ﺘﺘﻜﻭﻥ‬
‫ﺃﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺍﺯﻴﺔ ﻭﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺍﺯﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻟﺫﺍ ﻓﻜل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺘﺎﺤﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺘﺸﻴﺭ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﻓﻌﺎل ﺃﻡ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻓﻌﺎل‪ .‬ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﺍﻵﺨﺭ ﻓﺎﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺭﻜﻭﻓﻴﺔ )‪ ( Markov Models‬ﺘﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ‬
‫ﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻡ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﺍل ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺤﺎﻟﺘﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺁﺨﺭ ﻤﻊ ﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ‪ .‬ﻴﺤﺘﺎﺝ ﻤﺩﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻤﻌﺭﻓﺔ ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻁﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺩﺨل ﻀﻤﻥ ﺨﻁﻁﻬﻡ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻴﻘﺘﺭﺡ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻬﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﺭﺒﻁ ﻜل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻭﻟﻴﺔ )‪ ،(Reliability‬ﺍﻻﺘﺎﺤﻴﺔ‪ (Availability) ‬ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺭﻜﻭﻓﻴﺔ )‪ (Markov Models‬ﻤﻊ ﺒﻌﻀﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺒﻌﺽ ﻷﺠل ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻤﻬﺎ ﻤﺠﺘﻤﻌﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺤﻠﻴﻼﺕ ) ‪ ( RAMM‬ﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻡ‬
‫ﺃﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﻭﺍﺤﺘﺴﺎﺏ ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺘﻬﺎ‪ .‬ﻗﺩﻤﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻼﺕ ) ‪ ( RAMM‬ﺒﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﻤﻨﻔﺭﺩﺓ ﻭﻤﺩﻤﺠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺠﻲ‬
‫ﻤﺘﻭﺍﺯﻱ ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ﻷﺠل ﺘﺨﻤﻴﻥ ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺘﻪ‪ .‬ﺃﻅﻬﺭﺕ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻼﺕ ﺇﻥ ﺍﻻﺘﺎﺤﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺭﻜﻭﻓﻴﺔ ﻤﻨﺎﺴﺒﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻼﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﺩﺕ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ ‪.78%‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺍﻟﺔ‪ :‬ﺘﺨﻁﻴﻁ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺘﺎﺤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺭ ﻜﻭﻓﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺍﺯﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫‪Employing Reliability, Availability and Markov Models‬‬

‫‪in production planning of parallel systems‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬
‫‪Assis. Prof. Dr. Salim A. Saleh‬‬
‫‪University of Tikrit, College of engineering‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬
‫‪ABSTRACT:‬‬
‫‪Reliability and Availability are considered to be type of equipments life parameters. Parallel look‬‬
‫‪like other production systems are consists of many equipments, therefore, each of reliability and‬‬
‫‪availability indicates that whether the system is effective or not. In other hand markov models were‬‬
‫‪used to evaluates the functions whose state had been changed in its levels within time changing.‬‬

‫‪٨٢‬‬ ‫‪ ‬‬
  ٢٠١١ ٤ ‫اﻟﻌﺪد‬ ٤ ‫اﻟﻤﺠﻠﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﺠﻠﺔ اﻟﻘﺎدﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻠﻮم اﻟﻬﻨﺪﺳﻴﺔ‬

Hence each of Reliability, Availability and Markov Models ( RAMM ) can be joined together and
employed in evaluation of production systems.
Production managers needing to know the productivity of the system which involved in their
production plan. This paper introduces an analysis of RAMM with parallel production system in
order to estimates its productivity, where such techniques are used individually. It was concluded
that Availability and Markov Models are suitable to be used in estimation of productivity, which
was depended in production planning.
 
‫ﺍﻟﺭﻤﻭﺯ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺔ‬
،i ‫ ﺍﻻﺘﺎﺤﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ‬: Ai
:(Mean  Time  To  Failure) MTTF
  ،( ‫ ﻤﺎﻜﻨﺔ‬/ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ ﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺸل ) ﻴﻭﻡ‬
‫ ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬:(Mean Time To Repair) MTTR
،( ‫ ﻤﺎﻜﻨﺔ‬/ ‫ﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻠﻴﺢ ) ﻴﻭﻡ‬
‫ ﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻅـﺎﻡ ﺴـﻴﻜﻭﻥ‬: Psi(t+∆t)
،( t+∆t ) ‫ ﻋﻨﺩ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ‬si ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ‬
_
‫ ﻤﺸﺘﻘﺔ ﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻅـﺎﻡ‬: P si (t ) = ∂Psi (t ) / ∂t
،t ‫ﻋﻨﺩ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ‬
  ،t ‫ ﻋﻨﺩ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ‬i ‫ ﻤﻌﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ‬:Ri(t)
_
،( ‫ ﻴﻭﻡ‬/ ‫ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ ) ﻤﺘﺭ ﻁﻭل‬: X i
i ‫ ﻴﻭﻡ ( ﻟﻠﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ‬/ ‫ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺸل ) ﻤﺎﻜﻨﺔ‬:λi 
،
‫ ﻴﻭﻡ ( ﻟﻠﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ‬/ ‫ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻠﻴﺢ ) ﻤﺎﻜﻨﺔ‬:μi
.i

٨٣  
‫‪  ٢٠١١‬‬ ‫اﻟﻌﺪد ‪٤‬‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺠﻠﺪ ‪٤‬‬ ‫ﻣﺠﻠﺔ اﻟﻘﺎدﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻠﻮم اﻟﻬﻨﺪﺳﻴﺔ‬
‫‪ ‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺩﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪ ،‬ﻤﺜل ﺍﻟﺘﺭﺘﻴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺴﻠﺴل‪،‬‬
‫ﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺭﺘﻴﺒﺎ ‪‬‬
‫ﻥ ﻴﺄﺨﺫ ﺘﺭﺘﻴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﺎﺌﻥ ﻀﻤﻥ ﻨﻅﺎ ﹺﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻨﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ ‪‬ﻤ ‪‬‬
‫ﻥ َﺃ ‪‬‬
‫‪‬ﻴ ‪‬ﻤ ‪‬ﻜ ‪‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺍﺯﻱ‪ ،‬ﺃَﻭ ﺃﻟﻬﺠﻴﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﺒﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﻨﹶﺘﺎﺌِﺞ ﺍﻷﺩﺍ ‪‬ﺀ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔ‪‬ﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻅﺎ ﹺﻡ ‪ .‬ﻗﺩﻡ )‪ (Koren,  etal,  1998‬ﻤﺭ‪‬ﺍﺠ‪‬ﻌﺔ ﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ‬
‫ﻁ‬
‫ﺕ ﻤﻊ ﺘﺭﺘﻴﺏ ﺒﺜﻼﺜﺔ ﺨﻁﻭ ‪‬‬
‫ﻁ ﺒﺜﻤﺎﻥ ﻋﺸﹾﺭﺓ ﻤﺎﻜﻨ ‪‬ﺔ ﻗﹸﻭﺭﻨ ﹾ‬
‫ﺨﹼ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺭﺘﻴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺴﻠﺴل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋ ‪‬ﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻜﻭﻨﺔ ﻤﻥ ﹶ‬
‫ﻁ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺴﻠﺴلِ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻤﺎ ﺘﻌﻁﻠﺕ ﺇﺤﺩﻯ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﺎﺌﻥ‪ ،‬ﻴﺼﺒﺢ ﻜﺎﻤل ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎ ﹺﻡ ﻏﻴﺭ‬‫ﺃﻗﺼﺭﻫﺎ ﻴﺘﺄﻟﻑ ﻤﻥ ﺴﺘﹼﺔ ﻤﻜﺎﺌﻥ ‪ .‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟ ﹶ‬
‫ﺨﱢ‬
‫ﻤﻨﺘﺞ‪ .‬ﻟﺫﻟﻙ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﻟﺘﺭﺘﻴﺏ ﺍﻷﺨﻴﺭ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻷﻓﻀل ﻤﻥ ﻨﺎﺤﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻴﺔ ﺤﺎل‪ ،‬ﻋﺩﺩ ﺘﺭﺘﻴﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎ ﹺﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺘﻤﻠ ‪‬ﺔ‬
‫ﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﺩﺍﺌل ﻟﻠﺘﺭﺘﻴﺒﹺﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺘﺯﺩﺍﺩ ﺒﺴﺭﻋﺔ ﻜﻠﻤﺎ ﺯﺍﺩ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﺎﺌﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ‪ .‬ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤ‪‬ﻬﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﹶﻘﻴﻴﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻜﺭ ﻷﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ ‪‬ﻤ ‪‬‬
‫ﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻭﻟﻴﺔ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻠﻴ ‪‬ﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻤﻴﻡ‪ ،‬ﻤﺘﺒﻭﻋﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﺭﺘﻴﺏ‪ .‬ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﻷﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺝ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴ ِ‬
‫ل ﻴ‪‬ﺘﻀﻤ‪ ‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻭﻋﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻗﺎﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻭل ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻜﻠﻔﺔ‪  .‬‬
‫ﺱ ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬
‫ﺇﺤﺩﻯ ﻁﺭﺍﺌﻕ ﺘﹶﻘﻴﻴﻡ ﺍﻟﻨﻭﻋﻴﺔ ﺘﺘﻡ ﺒﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ ﺘﺩﻓﻕ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺘﺠﺔ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﺘﺭﺘﻴﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻭﻗ‪‬ﻴﺎ ‪‬‬
‫ﺞ ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴ ‪‬ﺔ )‪ .(Zhong, etal, 2000‬ﺘﺘﻌﻠﻕ ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ‬
‫ﺹ ﺍﻟﻤ‪‬ﻨ ﹶﺘ ﹺ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺭﺍﻑ ﻭ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺭﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻟﺨﺼﺎﺌ ﹺ‬
‫ﺒﻤﻌﻭﻟﻴﺘ ‪‬ﻪ ﻭﻗﺎﺒﻠﻴﺘ ‪‬ﻪ ﻟﻠﺼﻴﺎﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﺘﻘﺎﺱ ﻫﺎﺘﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺘﺎﻥ )ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﻗﺎﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﺎﻨﺔ( ﺒﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ ﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺸل ) ‪( MTTF‬‬
‫ﻭﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ ﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻠﻴﺢ ) ‪ ( MTTR‬ﻟﻠﻨﻅﺎﻡ‪ .‬ﺘﺴﺘﻨﺩ ﺍ‪‬ﺘﺎﺤﻴﺔ ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺨﺼﺎﺌﺹ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﺎﺌﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻭﻨﺔ ﻟﻪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺏ ﻤﻌﻴﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺘﹶﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻎ‬
‫ﻗﺎﻡ )‪ (Yang,  etal,  2000‬ﺒﺎﺤﺘﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻌﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺒﺘﺭﺘﻴ ﹴ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺼﺼﺔ ﻟﻠﺤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺤﺘﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﻭﺙ ﻟﻠﻨﻅﺎﻡ‪ .‬ﺘﻌﺭﻑ ﺤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﺸﺘﻐﺎل ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺘ ‪‬ﻪ ﺃﻭ‬
‫ﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﺸﺘﻐﺎﻟﻬﺎ‪  .‬‬
‫ﻉ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻟﻸﻨﻅﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﺭﻜﺯ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒ ‪‬ﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﻟﻠﺘﻐﻴ‪‬ﺭ‬
‫‪‬ﻴ ‪‬ﻤﻜ‪‬ﻥ ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﻗﺎﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻭﻴل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻨﻭﺍ ﹺ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻁﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻤ‪‬ﻨﺘﹶﺞ ﺃَﻭ ﻤﺯﺝ ﺃﺠﺯﺍﺀﻩ‪ .‬ﺒﻨﻔﺱ ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ‪ ،‬ﺘﺘﻤﺜل ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺔ ﺒﻘﺎﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﹶﻌﺩﻴل ﺒﺩ ﹼﻗ ‪‬ﺔ ﻟﺴﻌﺔ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‪،‬‬
‫ﺨ ﹶﺘﻠ‪‬ﻔﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻅﺎﻡ‪ .‬ﻓﺎﻟﺘﺭﺘﻴﺒﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺃَﻭ ﺍﻟﺤﺠﻡ‪ .‬ﻗﺎﻡ )‪ (Zhong, etal, 2000‬ﺒﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ ﻟﺘﹶﺤﻭﻴل ﺍﻟﺘﺭﺘﻴﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻟ ‪‬ﻤ ﹾ‬
‫ل ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻴﺘﻭﻗﻑ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺒﺼﻭﺭﺓ‬
‫ﻁ ﺍﻟﻨﻘ ِ‬
‫ﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻨﻅﻤ ‪‬ﺔ ﻤﺜل ﺨﻁﻭ ‪‬‬
‫ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺼﻐﺭ ﺒﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻭﻴل ﻓﻀ‪‬ﻠ ﹾ‬
‫ﺏ ﺃﻨﻅﻤ ﹸﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺃﻗل ﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻨﺘﻅﺎﺭ ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ﻴﺘﻁﻠﺏ ﺇﺠﺭﺍﺀ ﺘﻐﻴﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻜﺎﻤﻠﺔ) ‪ (100%‬ﺃﺜﻨﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻭﻴل‪ .‬ﺘﺘﻁﻠﹼ ‪‬‬
‫ﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ل ﺯﻴﺎﺩ ‪‬ﺓ ﺃَﻭ ﻨﻘﺼﺎ ﹴ‬
‫ﻥ ﻗﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺔ ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺩﻨﻴﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻜﻠﹼ ﹶﻔ ﹸﺔ ﻟﻜ ِ‬
‫ﺴﻌﺘﻬﺎ‪ .‬ﺘﺘﻀ ‪‬ﻤ ‪‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ ﺃَﻭ ﺍﻟﺠ‪‬ﻬﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﻭﺏ ﻟﻠﻘ ‪‬ﻴﺎﹾﺱ‪ .‬ﻟﺫﺍ ﺘﻌﺩ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻔﺔ‪ ،‬ﺒﺸﻜل ﺩﺍﺌﻡ ﺘﻘﺭﻴﺒﺎﹰ‪ ،‬ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻲ ﻟﺫﻟﻙ‪  .‬‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻴﺔ ﺤﺎل‪ ،‬ﻟﻴﺱ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻤﺘﻭﻓﺭ ﻟ ‪‬ﻭﺼ‪‬ﻑ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗ ‪‬ﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻘﹼﺩ ‪‬ﺓ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻨﻭﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤ‪‬ﻨ ﹶﺘﺞﹺ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻌﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻤﻜﻭ‪‬ﻨﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺹ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻘﹼﺩ ‪‬ﺓ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻴﺩ ‪‬ﺓ ﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺫﻭ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻁﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ‪ .‬ﺍﺨﺫ ) ‪  (Yong, etal, 2005‬ﺒﺎﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺨﺼﺎﺌ ﹺ‬
‫ل‬
‫ﻑ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻘﹼﺩ ‪‬ﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺘﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻔﺎﻋ ِ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﺩﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﻗﺘﺭﺤﻭﺍ ﻤﻔﻬﻭﻤ ﹰﺎ ﺠﺩﻴﺩﹰﺍ ﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻭﻋﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻭﺼ ‪‬‬
‫ل ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻁﺎﺕ‪ .‬ﺍﺴﺘﻨﺎﺩﹰﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺫﺍ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻗ ﹶﺘ ‪‬ﺭﺤ‪‬ﻭﺍ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺠﹰﺎ ﻋﺎﻤ ﹰﺎ‬
‫ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻌﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﻨﻭﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤ‪‬ﻨﺘﹶﺞ ﻋﺒﺭ ﹸﻜ ُ‬
‫ﺞ ﺒﻤﻌﻭﻟﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻟﺴﻠﺴﻠ ‪‬ﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻭﻋﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻁﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﺩﺩﺓ ﻟ ‪‬ﻤﻜﹶﺎ ‪‬ﻤﻠﹶﺔ ﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﻨﻭﻋﻴ ‪‬ﺔ ﺍﻟﻤ‪‬ﻨ ﹶﺘ ‪‬‬
‫ل ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻠﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻀﺒﻭﻁ‪ ،‬ﻭ‬
‫ﺤّ‬‫ل ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻭﻟﻴ ‪‬ﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻅﺎ ﹺﻡ‪ .‬ﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴ ﹺﻡ ﻤﻌﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡﹺ‪ ،‬ﺠﻬﺯﻭﺍ ﻜﻼ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟ ‪‬‬
‫ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺤﻠﻴ ِ‬
‫ﻁ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻤﺎ ﺒﻘﻴﺕ ﻨﻭﻋﻴ ‪‬ﺔ‬
‫ل ﺍﻟﻤﻀﺒﻭ ‪‬‬
‫ﺤﱢ‬‫ﻥ ﻨﻅﻴﺭﹰﺍ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟ ‪‬‬
‫ﺤ ‪‬ﺩ ﺍﻷﻋﻠﻰ ‪‬ﻴﻜﹸﻭ ‪‬‬
‫ﻥ ﺍﻟ ‪‬‬
‫ﺤ ‪‬ﺩ ﺍﻷﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺴﻬل‪ .‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺍﺜﺒﺘﻭﺍ ﺇ ‪‬‬
‫ل ﺍﻟ ‪‬‬
‫ﺤّ‬‫‪‬‬

‫‪٨٤‬‬ ‫‪ ‬‬
‫‪  ٢٠١١‬‬ ‫اﻟﻌﺪد ‪٤‬‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺠﻠﺪ ‪٤‬‬ ‫ﻣﺠﻠﺔ اﻟﻘﺎدﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻠﻮم اﻟﻬﻨﺪﺳﻴﺔ‬
‫‪ ‬‬
‫ﺞ ﺒﻼ ﺘﺤﺴﻴﻥ ﺫﺍﺘﻲ‪ ،‬ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴ‪‬ﺎ ً ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻜﺜﻴ ﹺﺭ ﻤﻥ ﻨﻅﻡ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻁﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﺩﺩﺓ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤ‪‬ﻨ ﹶﺘ ‪‬‬
‫ﺝ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻁﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﺩﺩﺓ‪.‬‬
‫ﺕ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎ ﹺ‬
‫ﻕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻜﺜﻴ ﹺﺭ ﻤﻥ ﻨﻅ ﹺﻡ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎ ﹸ‬
‫ﻥ ﻴﻁﺒ ﹸ‬
‫ﻥ َﺃ ‪‬‬
‫ﻟﺫﺍ‪ ،‬ﻓﻨﻤﻭﺫﺠﻬﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻁﻭ ﹺﺭ ‪‬ﻴ ‪‬ﻤ ‪‬ﻜ ‪‬‬
‫ﻥ‬
‫ﻥ َﺃ ‪‬‬
‫ﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻔﺎﺠﺌ ‪‬ﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺂﻜل ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻤﺎ ﻗﺩﻤﺕ ﻜﺘﻐ ‪‬ﻴ ‪‬ﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻫﺘﺯﺍﺯ ﺍﻟﺴﻤﻌﻲﹺ‪ ،‬ﻴ‪‬ﻤﻜ ‪‬‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﺤﻭل ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺎﺩﺍ ‪‬‬
‫ﺕ‪ .‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺴﺒﻴل‬
‫ﻲ ﻟﻠﺼﻭ ‪‬‬
‫ﻥ ﺫﺍﺕ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻟﻤﺸﻐل ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻜﻨﺔ‪ .‬ﺇﻥ ﻤﺸﻜﻠ ‪‬ﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﻗﺒﺔ ﻟﹶﻬﺎ ﺫﺍﺕ ﻁﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺘﺸﺒﻪ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻴﻴﺯ ﺍﻵﻟ ﹺ‬
‫ﺘﻜﹸﻭ ‪‬‬
‫ل ﺍﻻﻫﺘﺯﺍﺯ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺭ ﻤﻥ ﻋﺩﺓ ﻷﺨﺭﻯ‪ .‬ﺃﻴﻀﺎﹰ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻴ‪‬ﻑ ﺍﻟﺴﻬل ﻷﻨﻅﻤ ‪‬ﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺎل‪ ،‬ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺨﺘﻼﻑ ﺘﻔﺎﺼﻴ ِ‬
‫ﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻨﻴﻊ ﻤﻬﻡ‪ .‬ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺎل ﺍﻗﺘﺭﺡ ‪  (  Atlas, etal, 2000 )   ‬ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺠﹰﺎ ﻟﺘﺸﻜﻴل ﺘﻁﻭ ‪‬ﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﻗﺒﺔ ﻋﺒﺭ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎ ‪‬‬
‫ﺕ ) ﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﻤﺎﺭﻜﻭﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﻔﻴﺔ ‪Hidden Markov ‬‬
‫ﺕ ﺍﻻﻫﺘﺯﺍﺯ ﺒﻨﻔﺱ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻨﻴ ‪‬ﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻨﺠﺤﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻤﻴﻴﺯ ﺍﻟﺼﻭ ‪‬‬
‫ﺇﺸﺎﺭﺍ ‪‬‬
‫‪ .( Models‬ﻗﺎﻤﻭﺍ ﺒﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺠﻬﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺘﺭﺡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺭﺍﻗﺒﺔ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺭﻴﺯ ﻓﻲ ﺜﻼﺜﺔ ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﺯﻤﻨﻴ ‪‬ﺔ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔ ‪‬ﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻅﻬﺭﻭﺍ ﺩﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﺒﺘﺂﻜل ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﻤﺎﺭﻜﻭﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﻔﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ ‪Productivity  (Prod i(t)  )          ‬‬

‫ﻥ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩﻴﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻟﺠﺔ ﻭﻤﻌﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﺎﺌ ﹺ‬
‫ﺴ ﹺ‬
‫ل ﻤﺜل ‪‬ﻨ ‪‬‬
‫ﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤ ِ‬
‫ﺒﺸﻜل ﻋﺎﻡ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﻥ ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎ ‪‬ﻡ ﻤ‪‬ﺤﺩ‪‬ﺩ ﹲﺓ ﺒﺎﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ ‪‬ﻤ ‪‬‬
‫ﺽ ﺃﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﻋﻁل ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎ ﹺﻡ ﻤ‪‬ﻥ ﺨﻼل‬
‫ﻥ ﻭﺘﹸﺨ ﹼﻔ ‪‬‬
‫ﻭﻤﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﺍﻟﺨﺯﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ‪ .‬ﻤﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﺍﻟﺨﺯﻥ ﻜﺜﻴﺭﺓ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻌﻤﺎل ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﺎﺌ ﹺ‬
‫ﺱ ﻤ‪‬ﺘﻀﻤ‪‬ﻨﺎ ﻫﻨﺎ ﻷﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ ﻴﺭﻜﺯ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ‬
‫ﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺠﺎﻭﺭ ﹶﺓ‪ .‬ﺇﻥ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺎﺯﻥ ﻟﹶﻴ ‪‬‬
‫ﻓﻙ ﺍﻻﺭﺘﺒﺎﻁ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﺎﺌ ‪‬‬
‫ﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔ ‪‬ﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺩﺍ ‪‬ﺀ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎ ﹺﻡ‪ .‬ﻟﻘﺩ ﺩﺭﺱ ) ‪ ( Gershwin,  1994,  and  Yang,  etal,  1999‬ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺭﺘﻴﺒﺎ ‪‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺎﺯﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺩﺍ ‪‬ﺀ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎ ﹺﻡ‪ .‬ﻓﻀﻼ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﻫﻡ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺩﻓﻕ ﺍﻷﺠﺯﺍ ‪‬ﺀ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻔﺼﻠ ‪‬ﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺼﻨﻴﻊ ﺍﻷﻨﻅﻤ ‪‬ﺔ ﻤﺴﺘﻤﺭﹰﺍ‪ .‬ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻥ ﻓﻭﻕ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﺴﻔل ﺒﺸﻜل ﻤﺴﺘﻤﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺜﺎﺒﺕ‪ .‬ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝﹺ‪ ،‬ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺭﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻜﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﻐﹼﺎﻟﺔ ﺘﻨﻘل ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺩ‪‬ﺓ ‪‬ﻤ ‪‬‬
‫ﻥ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩﻴ ‪‬ﺔ‬ ‫ﺏ ‪ ، Psk , k‬ﻫﻲ ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ ﻤﺨﺭﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﺯﺍ ‪‬ﺀ ﺍﻟﻤ‪‬ﻨﺘﺠﺔ ‪‬ﻤ ‪‬‬
‫ﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎ ﹺﻡ‪ .‬ﻟﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﺎﺌ ﹺ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎ ﹺﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭ ﹼﻗﻌ‪‬ﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺭﺘﻴ ﹺ‬
‫ﻥ ﻴ‪‬ﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎﻻﺕ ﻋﺩﻴﺩﺓ‪ .‬ﺘﻌﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺒﺸﺭﻁ ﻜﻭﻥ ﹸﻜلّ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﺎﺌﻥ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎ ﹺﻡ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﻌﻭل ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻴ ‪‬ﻤﻜ‪‬ﻥ َﺃ ‪‬‬
‫_‬
‫ﺙ‬
‫ﺴ ‪‬ﻴﺤ‪‬ﺩ ﹸ‬
‫‪ ، X‬ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ‪‬‬ ‫‪i‬‬ ‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎ ﹺﻡ )ﻗﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﻤل ﺍﻡ ﻻ (‪ .‬ﻓﺭﺒﻤﺎ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻟﻠﺤﺎﻟﺔ ‪ i‬ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺫﻭ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻑ‪،‬‬
‫ﻥ‬
‫ﻥ َﺃ ‪‬‬
‫‪ .Prob [ state i] ‬ﻟﺫﺍ ﻓﺈﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﹼﻌﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺫﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺭﺘﻴﺏ ‪ ، Psk , k‬ﻴ ‪‬ﻤ ‪‬ﻜ ‪‬‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻻﺤﺘﻤﺎل‬
‫ﺏ ﻭﻓﻕ)‪  :(Zhong, etal, 2000‬‬
‫ﺴ ‪‬‬
‫ﺤ‪‬‬‫‪‬ﻴ ‪‬‬

‫‪                  ‬‬
‫= ‪Psk‬‬ ‫‪∑X‬‬ ‫‪i‬‬
‫}‪all _ states {i‬‬
‫] ‪Pr ob[ state _ i‬‬
‫‪(1) ‬‬

‫ﺕ ﻓﺸل ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻜﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﺤﺩﻫﻤﺎ ﻴﺩﻋﻰ ﺒﺤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺸل ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺘﻤﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴ ‪‬ﺔ‬
‫ﻥ ﺤﺎﻻ ‪‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻭﻋﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﺎﻥ ‪‬ﻤ ‪‬‬
‫) ‪ ( Operation Dependent Failure ODF‬ﻭﺍﻵﺨﺭ ﻴﺩﻋﻰ ﺒﺤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺸل ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺘﻤﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ ) ‪Time ‬‬
‫‪ ،(  Dependent Failure TDF ‬ﻫﺫﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻭﻋﺎﻥ ﺃﺨﺫﺍ ﺒﺎﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻭﺜﺎﺌﻕ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺨﺼﺼﺔ) ‪Dallery, ‬‬
‫ﺙ ﻓﻘﻁ ﺨﻼل ﻋﻤل ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻜﻨﺔ‪ .‬ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺤﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ‪،‬‬
‫ﻥ ﺘﺤ‪‬ﺩ ﹶ‬
‫ﻥ َﺃ ‪‬‬
‫‪ .( etal, 1992‬ﺤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺸل ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺒﻌﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ‪‬ﻴ ‪‬ﻤ ‪‬ﻜ ‪‬‬
‫ﺙ ﺤﺘﻰ ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻜﻨﺔ ﻋﺎﻁﻠ ﹸﺔ‪ .‬ﻓﻲ ﺃﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻨﻴﻊ‪،‬‬
‫ﻥ ﺘﺤ‪‬ﺩ ﹶ‬
‫ﻥ َﺃ ‪‬‬
‫ﺤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺸل ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺘﻤﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ ‪‬ﻴ ‪‬ﻤ ‪‬ﻜ ‪‬‬

‫‪٨٥‬‬ ‫‪ ‬‬
‫‪  ٢٠١١‬‬ ‫اﻟﻌﺪد ‪٤‬‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺠﻠﺪ ‪٤‬‬ ‫ﻣﺠﻠﺔ اﻟﻘﺎدﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻠﻮم اﻟﻬﻨﺪﺳﻴﺔ‬
‫‪ ‬‬
‫ﺏ ﻤﻴﻜﺎﻨﻴﻜﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻤﺜل ﻜﺴ ﹺﺭ ﺠﺯﺀ ﺃَﻭ ﺘﻭﻗﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺭﻙ‪،‬‬
‫ﺤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺸل ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺒﻌﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺘﺤﺩﺙ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺭﺌﻴﺴﻲ ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺃﺴﺒﺎ ﹺ‬
‫ﺕ ﺍﻨﺘﻬﺎﺀ ﻋﻤﺭ ﺃﺠﺯﺍﺀ ﺍﻷﻨﻅﻤﺔ‪ .‬ﻟﻘﺩ‬
‫ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﺤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺸل ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺘﻤﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ ﺘﺤﺩﺙ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺭﺌﻴﺴﻲ ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﺤﺎﻻ ‪‬‬
‫ﻻ‬
‫ل ﺘﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴ ﹶﺔ ﺒﺩ ﹰ‬
‫ﻁ ﺍﻟﻨﻘ ِ‬
‫ﺕ ﻓﺸل ﺨﻁﻭ ‪‬‬
‫‪ ،( Buzacott, etal, 1978‬ﺇﻥ " ﺃﻏﻠﺏ ﺤﺎﻻ ‪‬‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﻨﺘﺞ ﻜل ﻤﻥ )‬
‫ﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ‬
‫ﻥ ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ‪ .‬ﻫﻜﺫﺍ ﻓﺎﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺃﻜﺜ ‪‬ﺭ ﻤﻼﺌﻤﺔ ‪‬ﻤ ‪‬‬
‫‪‬ﻤ ‪‬‬
‫ﻥ ﻤﻌﺘﻤﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴ ﹰﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺸل ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ ﻤ‪‬ﻔ ﹶﺘﺭ‪‬ﻀﺔ ﺒﺎﻥ ﹶﺘﻜﹸﻭ ‪‬‬
‫ﻥ ﺤﺎﻻ ﹶ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺘﻤﺜﻴل ﺃﻨﻅﻤ ‪‬ﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻨﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺘﻤﺘ ‪‬ﺔ"‪ .‬ﺇ ‪‬‬
‫ﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺸل‪ ،‬ﺴﻨﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﺍﺜﻨﻴﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﻟﻘ ‪‬ﻴﺎﹾﺱ ﻤﻌﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻜﻨ ‪‬ﺔ ﻭﻗﺎﺒﻠﻴﺘﻬﺎ‬
‫ﻥ ﻋﺭﻀﺔ ﻟﺤﺎﻻ ‪‬‬
‫ﻟﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﺎﺌ ﹺ‬
‫ل )‪ (MTTF‬ﻭﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ ﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﹶﺼﻠﻴﺢ )‪ .(MTTR‬ﻓﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ ﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺸل ﻫﻭ ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺼﻴﺎﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ ﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺸ ِ‬
‫ﻥ‬
‫ﺕ ‪‬ﻤ ‪‬‬
‫ﺢ ﺍﻷﺨﻴ ﹺﺭ ﻭﺒﹺﺩﺍﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺸل ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺩﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ ﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻠﻴﺢ ﻫﻭ ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ ﺍﻟﻭﻗ ﹸ‬
‫ل ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻠﻴ ﹺ‬
‫ل ﺒﻴﻥ ﺇﻜﻤﺎ ِ‬
‫ﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤ ُ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻭﻗ ﹸ‬
‫ل ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻠﺤﻅ ‪‬ﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺼﺒﺢ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻜﻨﺔ ﺼﺎﻟﺤﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻤل‪ .‬ﻫﻜﺫﺍ‪ ،‬ﻴﻤﺜل ‪ MTTF‬ﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻻﺸﺘﻐﺎل‬
‫ﻟﺤﻅ ‪‬ﺔ ﺤﺩﻭﺙ ﺍﻟﻔﺸ ُ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﻟﻠﻤﺎﻜﻨﺔ ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﻴﻤﺜل ‪ MTTR‬ﻭﻗﺕ ﺘﺼﻠﻴﺤﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ‪.‬‬
‫ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻤﻌﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻜﻨﺔ ‪ jth‬ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺘﻌﺭﻴﻔﻬﺎ " ﺒﺄﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻗﻴﺎﻡ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻜﻨﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻤل ﺨﻼل ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬
‫)‪( R j‬‬ ‫ﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﻤﺤﺩﺩﺓ ) ‪ ( t ‬ﻭﺘﺤﺕ ﻅﺭﻭﻑ ﻤﻌﺭﻭﻓﺔ" )‪ ،( Foster, etal, 1981‬ﺒﻤﻌﻨﻰ ﺁﺨﺭ ﻓﻤﻌﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻜﻨﺔ‬
‫ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺘﻌﺭﻴﻔﻬﺎ ﺒﺎﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻵﺘﻴﺔ‪:‬‬

‫‪t‬‬
‫‪−‬‬
‫‪R j (t ) = e‬‬ ‫‪MTTF‬‬
‫)‪                                                          (2‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬
‫ﺤﻴﺙ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺘﻌﺭﻴﻑ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺠﺩﻴﺩ )‪ ( λ = 1/MTTF‬ﺒﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺸل ﻟﻠﻤﺎﻜﻨﺔ ) ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻁﺔ (‪.‬‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﺘﻤﺜﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻜﻨﺔ ﺒﻌﺩ ﺤﺩﻭﺙ ﺍﻟﻔﺸل ﺒﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﻤﺎﺭﻜﻭﻑ ﻴﺴﺘﻭﺠﺏ ﺘﻤﺜﻴﻠﻬﺎ ﺒﺎﻟﺸﻜل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪.(1‬‬
‫ﺇﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩﹰﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ (1‬ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺼل ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﺸﺘﻘﺎﻕ ﻤﻌﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻜﻨﺔ ) )‪ ،( Rj(t‬ﻋﻨﺩ ﻟﺤﻅﺔ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ )‪ ،(t‬ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺎﻀﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫_‬
‫‪P S 0 + λPS 0 = 0‬‬
‫_‬
‫‪P S1 = λPS 0‬‬ ‫)‪                                                        (3‬‬
‫‪PS 0 (0) = 1‬‬
‫‪PS1 (0) = 0‬‬

‫ﻭﻟﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﺘﻤﺜل ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ) ‪ (S0‬ﻟﻠﻤﺎﻜﻨﺔ ﻋﻨﺩ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ )‪ ،( t ‬ﻟﺫﻟﻙ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ‪ ‬‬

‫‪R(t)=PS0(t)=1‐PS1(t)=e‐λt                                                 (4) ‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﻥ ﻤﻌﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺍﺯﻱ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻤﻥ ) ‪ ( n‬ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻁﺎﺕ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺤﺴﺎﺒﻬﺎ ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺃﺩﻨﺎﻩ‪:‬‬

‫‪٨٦‬‬ ‫‪ ‬‬
‫‪  ٢٠١١‬‬ ‫اﻟﻌﺪد ‪٤‬‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺠﻠﺪ ‪٤‬‬ ‫ﻣﺠﻠﺔ اﻟﻘﺎدﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻠﻮم اﻟﻬﻨﺪﺳﻴﺔ‬
‫‪ ‬‬
‫‪n‬‬
‫)‪  Rs (t ) = 1 − ∏ [1 − Ri (t )]                                                  (5‬‬
‫‪i =1‬‬

‫‪ ‬‬
‫ﺍﻹﺠﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻤل‪ ،‬ﻫﻭ ﺒﻘﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻜﻨﺔ ‪ jth‬ﻤﺘﺎﺤﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻤل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ‪ ،‬ﺒﻤﻌﻨﻰ ﺁﺨﺭ ﻓﺎﻷﺘﺎﺤﻴﺔ )‪ (Aj‬ﺘ ‪‬ﻌﺭ‪ ‬ﹸ‬
‫ﻑ ﻜﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬
‫ﻁ ﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻻﺸﺘﻐﺎل )‪ (MTTF‬ﻭﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ ﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﹶﺼﻠﻴﺢ‬
‫ﺴ ﹾ‬
‫ﻁ ﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻻﺸﺘﻐﺎل )‪ (MTTF‬ﺇﻟﻰ ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻉ ﻤﺘﻭ ‪‬‬
‫ﺴ ﹾ‬
‫ﻤﺘﻭ ‪‬‬
‫)‪ (MTTR‬ﺃﻭ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻠﻴﺢ ) ‪ ، ( μ=1/MTTR‬ﻫﺫﺍ ﻤﺎ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﺤﺘﺴﺎﺒﻪ ﺒﺎﻟﺼﻴﻐﺔ‪  :‬‬

‫‪MTTF‬‬ ‫‪µ‬‬
‫= ‪Aj‬‬ ‫=‬ ‫)‪                                             (6‬‬
‫‪MTTF + MTTR λ + µ‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬
‫ﻭﻷﺠل ﺘﻤﺜﻴل ﺍﻻﺘﺎﺤﻴﺔ ﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻜﻨﺔ ﺒﻌﺩ ﺘﺼﻠﻴﺢ ﺍﻟﻔﺸل ﺒﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻤﺎﺭﻜﻭﻑ ﻟﻴﺴﻤﺢ ﺒﻌﻭﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﻤﻥ )‪ ( ŷ1‬ﺇﻟﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ )‪ ( y1‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﻤﻭﻀﺤﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﺸﻜل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ .( 2‬ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ ( 2‬ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺼﻴﺎﻏﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺎﻀﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻵﺘﻴﺔ‪:‬‬

‫_‬
‫‪P S 0 + λPS 0 = µPS 1‬‬
‫_‬
‫)‪P S1 + µPS1 = λPS 0                                                      (7‬‬
‫‪PS 0 (0) = 1‬‬
‫‪PS 1 (0) = 0‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺴﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺤﻠﻬﺎ ﻤﻤﺜﻼ ﺒﺎﻻﺤﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻵﺘﻴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬
‫‪µ‬‬ ‫‪λ‬‬
‫= ) ‪PS 0 (t‬‬ ‫‪+‬‬ ‫‪e −(λ + µ )t‬‬
‫‪λ+µ‬‬ ‫‪λ+µ‬‬ ‫)‪(8‬‬

‫‪λ‬‬ ‫‪λ‬‬
‫= ) ‪PS 1 (t‬‬ ‫‪−‬‬ ‫‪e −(λ + µ )t‬‬
‫‪λ+µ‬‬ ‫‪λ+µ‬‬
‫)‪(9‬‬

‫ﻤﻥ ﺘﻌﺭﻴﻑ ﺍﻻﺘﺎﺤﻴﺔ ) )‪ ( Aj(t‬ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺒﺄﻨﻬﺎ ﺘﻤﺜل ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺭﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ) ‪ (8‬ﻟﻠﻤﺎﻜﻨﺔ ‪jth‬‬
‫ﻋﻨﺩ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ )‪ ( t‬ﻟﺘﺼﺒﺢ‪:‬‬
‫‪µ‬‬ ‫‪λ‬‬
‫= ) ‪A j (t ) = PS 0 (t‬‬ ‫‪+‬‬ ‫‪e −(λ + µ )t‬‬
‫‪λ+µ‬‬ ‫‪λ+µ‬‬ ‫)‪(10‬‬

‫ﻭﻟﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺀ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ )‪ (10‬ﻴﻤﺜل ﻜﻤﻴﺎﺕ ﺼﻐﻴﺭﺓ ﺠﺩﺍﹰ‪ ،‬ﻓﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺀ ﺍﻷﻭل ﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﺤﺘﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻻﺘﺎﺤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﻭﻜﻠﻤﺎ ﺯﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ ) ‪ ( t‬ﻜﻠﻤﺎ ﺍﻗﺘﺭﺒﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺭ ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ‬
‫ﺘﺴﺘﻘﺭ ﺍﻻﺘﺎﺤﻴﺔ ﻋﻨﺩ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺜﺎﺒﺘﺔ ﺃﻻ ﻭﻫﻲ )‪:( Billinton, etal,1985, and Zhong, etal, 2000‬‬

‫‪٨٧‬‬ ‫‪ ‬‬
‫‪  ٢٠١١‬‬ ‫اﻟﻌﺪد ‪٤‬‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺠﻠﺪ ‪٤‬‬ ‫ﻣﺠﻠﺔ اﻟﻘﺎدﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻠﻮم اﻟﻬﻨﺪﺳﻴﺔ‬
‫‪ ‬‬
‫‪µ‬‬
‫= ) ‪A j (t‬‬
‫‪λ+µ‬‬ ‫)‪(11‬‬

‫ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻕ ﺒﻴﻨﻬﻤﺎ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﻤﻼﺤﻅﺘﻪ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ﺭﻗﻡ ) ‪.(3‬‬

‫ﺘﺯﺩﺍﺩ ﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﻤﺎﺭﻜﻭﻑ ﺘﻌﻘﻴﺩﹰﺍ ﻜﻠﻤﺎ ﺍﺯﺩﺍﺩ ﻋﺩﺩ ﻋﻨﺎﺼﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺍﺯﻱ )‪ ،( n‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺴﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻻﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺃﻥ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺒﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﻤﺴﺎﻭﻴﺎ ﻟﻠﻌﺩﺩ )‪ 2n‬ﻜل ﻋﻨﺼﺭ ﺇﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﺸﺘﻐﺎل ﺃﻭ ﻋﻁل(‪ ،‬ﻟﺫﻟﻙ‬
‫ﻓﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺜﻼﺙ ﻋﻨﺎﺼﺭ ﻤﺘﻭﺍﺯﻴﺔ ﺴﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺒﺜﻤﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﺤﺎﻻﺕ ‪،( Billinton, etal,1985) 23=8 ،‬‬
‫ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺘﻤﺜﻴﻠﻬﺎ ﺒﺎﻟﺸﻜل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪.(4‬‬
‫ﻟﻭ ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺭﻨﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎل ﺤﺩﻭﺙ ﺃﻴﺔ ﺤﺎﻟﺔ ) ‪ ( Pj‬ﻭﺍﻥ ) ‪ ( j=1,2,….,8‬ﻤﻌﺘﻤﺩﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ) ‪ (μi,  λi‬ﻭﺍﻥ‬
‫) ‪ = i=1, 2, 3‬ﻋﺩﺩ ﻤﺤﻁﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ( ﻭﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎل ﺤﺩﻭﺙ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﻤﺼﻔﻭﻓﺔ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺤﺴﺎﺒﻬﺎ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ )‪:( Billinton, etal,1985‬‬

‫‪αP= α‬‬ ‫)‪(12‬‬

‫ﺤﻴﺙ ﺇﻥ )‪ α‬ﻫﻭ ﻤﺘﺠﻪ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺩﺩ‪ P ،‬ﻫﻲ ﻤﺼﻔﻭﻓﺔ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻘﺎﻟﻴﺔ (‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻥ ﻤﺘﺠﻪ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺩﺩ‬
‫ﻟﻠﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻭﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺜﻼﺙ ﻤﺤﻁﺎﺕ ﺴﻴﻜﻭﻥ‪:‬‬

‫‪α = [ P1‬‬ ‫‪P2‬‬ ‫‪P3‬‬ ‫‪P4‬‬ ‫‪P5‬‬ ‫‪P6‬‬ ‫‪P7‬‬ ‫] ‪P8‬‬

‫ﺃﻤﺎ ﻤﺼﻔﻭﻓﺔ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻟﻠﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺍﺯﻱ ﺒﺜﻼﺙ ﻤﺤﻁﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺘﻤﺜل ﺒﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺸل ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺼﻠﻴﺢ‬
‫) ‪ ،( μi, λi‬ﻓﻬﻲ ﺘﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﻔﻭﻓﺔ ] ‪ [ P‬ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻴﻨﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ ) ‪ .(1‬ﻭﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ) ‪ (12‬ﺃﻋﻼﻩ‬
‫ﻴﻅﻬﺭ ﻟﻨﺎ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺭﻗﻡ ) ‪ (13‬ﺃﺩﻨﺎﻩ‪:‬‬
‫‪ (1‐λ1‐λ2‐λ3) P1 + μ1 P2 + μ2 P3 + μ3 P4 = P1‬‬
‫‪λ1 P1 + (1‐μ1‐λ2‐λ3) P2 + μ2 P5 + μ3 P7 = P2‬‬
‫‪λ2 P1 + (1‐λ1‐μ2‐λ3) P3 + μ1 P5 + μ3 P6 = P3‬‬
‫‪λ3 P1 + (1‐λ1‐λ2‐μ3) P4 + μ2 P6 + μ1 P7 = P4‬‬
‫)‪(13‬‬
‫‪λ2 P2 + λ 1 P3 + (1‐μ1‐μ2‐λ3) P5 + μ3 P8  = P5‬‬
‫‪λ3 P3 + λ 2 P4 + (1‐λ1‐μ2‐μ3) P6 + μ1 P8  = P6‬‬
‫‪λ3 P2 + λ 1 P4 + (1‐μ1‐λ2‐μ3) P7 + μ2 P8  = P7‬‬
‫‪λ3 P5 + λ 1 P6 + λ 2 P7 + (1‐μ1‐μ2‐μ3) P8 = P8‬‬

‫ﻭﻷﺠل ﺤل ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻻﺕ ) ‪ (13‬ﻻ ﺒﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺇﺩﺨﺎل ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻁﻘﻴﺔ )‪ ، (14‬ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻤﺜل ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻉ ﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ‬
‫ﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻻﺕ‪ ،‬ﻷﺠل ﺃﻥ ﺘﺤل ﻤﺤل ﺃﻱ ﻤﻥ ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ) ‪ (13‬ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻟﺘﺠﺎﻭﺯ ﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺍﻻﻀﻤﺤﻼل ﺨﻼل‬
‫ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺤل‪ ،‬ﺒﺄﻴﺔ ﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﻤﺜل ﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺫﻑ ﺍﻟﻐﺎﻭﺴﻲ ﺃﻭ ﻏﻴﺭﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل ﺇﻟﻰ ﻗﻴﻡ ﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎل ﻜل ﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺜﻤﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺒﻌﺩ ﻓﺘﺭﺓ ﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ )‪.( ∆t‬‬
‫‪٨٨‬‬ ‫‪ ‬‬
‫‪  ٢٠١١‬‬ ‫اﻟﻌﺪد ‪٤‬‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺠﻠﺪ ‪٤‬‬ ‫ﻣﺠﻠﺔ اﻟﻘﺎدﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻠﻮم اﻟﻬﻨﺪﺳﻴﺔ‬
‫‪ ‬‬

‫‪P 1 + P 2 + P3 + P 4 + P5 + P 6 + P7 + P 8 = 1‬‬ ‫)‪(14‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺘﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﻤﻌﺎﻤل ﺍﻟﻨﺴﻴﺞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺩﺩ ﻤﺤﺩﺩ ﻤﻥ ﻤﻜﺎﺌﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﻴﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺒﻌﻀﻬﺎ ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﺴﻬل ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺍﺯﻱ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ‪ .‬ﻭﻟﻐﺭﺽ ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﻤﺎﺭﻜﻭﻑ ﻟﻠﻤﻌﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺘﺎﺤﻴﺔ ﻜﻭﺴﻴﻠﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﺎﺌل ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺤﺩﺩ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﺎﺌﻥ‪ ،‬ﻻ ﺴﻴﻤﺎ ﺒﻌﺩ ﻤﺭﻭﺭ ﻓﺘﺭﺓ ﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﻁﻭﻴﻠﺔ ) ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﻤﻥ ﻋﺸﺭﺓ ﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ( ﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﻀﻌﻬﺎ ﻗﻴﺩ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‪ ،‬ﻤﻤﺎ‬
‫ﻴﺴﺘﻭﺠﺏ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺘﻘﻴﻴﻡ ﺃﺩﺍﺌﻬﺎ ﻭﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩﻩ ﻜﺄﺴﺎﺱ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻁﻴﻁ ﻓﻲ ﻭﻀﻊ ﻭﺘﺼﻤﻴﻡ ﺍﻟﺨﻁﺔ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻤل ﻭﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﻁﺎﻗﺘﻪ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺎﺤﺔ ﻟﻴﺘﺴﻨﻰ ﻟﻺﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﺘﺨﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻴﻡ ﻋﻨﺩ ﺒﺭﻤﺠﺔ ﺨﻁﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻟﺫﻟﻙ‪ ،‬ﺘﻡ ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﺤﺩ ﺃﻗﺴﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﻴﺞ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻤﻌﻤل ﻨﺴﻴﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺼل ﻷﺠل ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﺎﺌل ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﻓﻴﻪ ﻭﺒﻴﺎﻥ ﻤﺩﻯ ﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻁﻴﻁ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩﻫﺎ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﻴﺨﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻴﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﺴﻡ ﻤﻥ )‪ ( 32‬ﺍﺜﻨﺎﻥ ﻭﺜﻼﺜﻭﻥ ﻤﺎﻜﻨﺔ ﻨﺴﻴﺞ ﺘﻌﻤل ﻟﺜﻼﺙ ﻭﺠﺒﺎﺕ ﻋﻤل ﻤﺘﻭﺍﺼﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻴﻭﻡ ﻭﻟﻤﺩﺓ ﺴﺘﺔ‬
‫ﺃﻴﺎﻡ ﻋﻤل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺴﺒﻭﻉ )ﺨﻼل ﺴﻨﺔ ‪ ،(1995‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﻡ ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﻴﺨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺒﻤﻜﺎﺌﻥ ﺫﻟﻙ ﺍﻟﻘﺴﻡ‪.‬‬
‫ﺘﺘﺄﻟﻑ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﻤﻥ‪:‬‬
‫ﺘﺎﺭﻴﺦ ﻭﻭﻗﺕ ﺘﻭﻗﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻜﻨﺔ‪،‬‬ ‫•‬
‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﻗﻑ ﺒﺎﻟﺴﺎﻋﺎﺕ‪،‬‬ ‫•‬
‫ﺘﺎﺭﻴﺦ ﻭﻭﻗﺕ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻜﻨﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻤل‪،‬‬ ‫•‬
‫ﺍﻟﻁﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻁﻴﻁﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺘﻤﺩﺓ ﻟﻺﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﻴﻭﻤﻲ ‪ 6000‬ﻤﺘﺭ )ﻡ ﻁ(‪.‬‬ ‫•‬
‫ﻴﺴﺘﻭﺠﺏ ﺒﻨﺎﺀ ﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﻤﺎﺭﻜﻭﻑ ﻟﻠﻤﻜﺎﺌﻥ ﺒﻭﻀﻌﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺍﺯﻱ ‪ 232= 4.294967 E9‬ﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﻤﺤﺘﻤﻠﺔ ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﺒﻴﻥ‬
‫ﻤﺩﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻘﻴﺩ ﻋﻨﺩ ﺘﻤﺜﻴﻠﻬﺎ ﺒﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﻤﺎﺭﻜﻭﻑ ) ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻥ ‪ 2‬ﺘﻤﺜل ﺤﺎﻟﺘﻲ ﺍﻻﺸﺘﻐﺎل ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻌﻁل ﻟﻠﻤﺎﻜﻨﺔ (‪ .‬ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل‬
‫ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﻴﺨﻴﺔ ﻅﻬﺭﺕ ﺍﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﺘﻘﺴﻴﻡ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﺎﺌﻥ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺜﻼﺙ ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻜل ﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﻴﺘﺼﻑ ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻌﺎﻴﻴﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﻀﺤﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ ،(2‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﺴﻬل ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﻤﺎﺭﻜﻭﻑ ﻭﺘﺤﻠﻴﻼﺘﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻭﻜﻤﺎ ﻤﻭﻀﺢ ﺒﺎﻟﺸﻜل ﺭﻗﻡ )‬
‫‪.( 4‬‬

‫ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺤﺩﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﺜﻘﺔ ﻟﻺﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻲ ) ‪( t‬‬

‫ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺇﺠﻤﺎل ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻴﻴﺭ ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﻟﻺﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﻠﻲ ﺍﻟﻴﻭﻤﻲ ﻟﺫﻟﻙ ﺍﻟﻘﺴﻡ ﺨﻼل ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ ) ‪.(3‬‬
‫ﻭﻷﺠل ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻜﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﻴﻭﻤﻲ ﻻ ﺒﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻴﺎ ﻭﺍﻟﺩﻨﻴﺎ ﻟﻪ ﻭﺒﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺜﻘﺔ ) ‪(0.995‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻤﺜل ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺌﻭﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻐﻁﻰ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺭﻭﻑ ﺒﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ ) ‪ ( t‬ﻭﻭﻓﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬
‫ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ ( 15‬ﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺜﻘﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁﺎﺕ )‪:(Alexander, et. al., 1974‬‬

‫‪٨٩‬‬ ‫‪ ‬‬
‫‪  ٢٠١١‬‬ ‫اﻟﻌﺪد ‪٤‬‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺠﻠﺪ ‪٤‬‬ ‫ﻣﺠﻠﺔ اﻟﻘﺎدﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻠﻮم اﻟﻬﻨﺪﺳﻴﺔ‬
‫‪ ‬‬
‫_‬ ‫_‬
‫‪X - t(α ,ν) S/√n ≤ μ ≤ X + t(α/2),ν S/√n‬‬ ‫)‪(15‬‬

‫ﺤﻴﺙ ﺇﻥ ‪ α‬ﺘﻤﺜل ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺜﻭﻗﺔ ﻭﺒﺫﻟﻙ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ )‪ ( 1- α‬ﺘﻤﺜل ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺜﻭﻗﺔ‪ ν ،‬ﺘﻤﺜل ﺩﺭﺠﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﺭﻴﺔ = ‪ ) 31=1 -32‬ﺒﺎﻓﺘﺭﺍﺽ ﺃﻥ ﺍﺤﺩ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﻴﻤﺜل ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺤﺴﺎﺒﻲ )‪(( Alexander, etal, 1974‬‬
‫‪ ،‬ﻭ ‪ n‬ﻴﻤﺜل ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﺎﺌﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﺴﻡ ) ‪.(32‬‬
‫ﻭﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ) ‪ (15‬ﻭﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﻘﺔ )‪ (0.995‬ﻤﻊ ﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺭﻴﺔ )‪ (31‬ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻲ ﻟﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ‬
‫‪ ( Alexander, etal, 1974) t‬ﻨﺠﺩ ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ ) ‪ ( t(0. 995 , 31)= 2.75‬ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ ﻤﺠﺘﻤﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻗﻌ ﹰﺎ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﻴﻥ ) ‪ ،( 326 ≤ μ ≤ 365‬ﺒﺫﻟﻙ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﺨﺫ ﺃﻴﺔ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻟﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﻴﻭﻤﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﺎﻜﻨﺔ ﻭﻟﻴﻜﻥ‬
‫) ‪ 350‬ﻡ ﻁ (‪.‬‬
‫ﻷﺠل ﺘﺨﻁﻴﻁ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻤﻘﺎﻴﻴﺱ ﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﻷﺩﺍﺀ ﻟﻠﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺍﺯﻱ ﻻﺒﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﺨﺫ ﺒﻌﻴﻥ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻁﺎﻗﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺎﺤﺔ ﻟﻜل ﺍﻟﻤﻜﺎﺌﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻭﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻜل ﻤﻥ ﻤﻘﺎﻴﻴﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻭﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻻﺘﺎﺤﻴﺔ ﻭﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﻤﺎﺭﻜﻭﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻨﻔﺭﺍﺩ ﻭﻜﻤﺎ‬
‫ﺴﻴﺭﺩ ﺘﻔﺼﻴﻠﻪ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﻘﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻵﺘﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫) )‪  Reliability (Ri(t‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻭﻟﻴﺔ‬

‫ﻴﺘﺄﻟﻑ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺜﻼﺙ ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﺎﺌﻥ ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﺸﻴﺭ ﺇﻟﻴﻪ ﺴﺎﺒﻘﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ ،(2‬ﻟﺫﻟﻙ ﻓﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺘﻴﻥ ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ ( 5 ، 4‬ﻭﺒﻌﺩ ﺘﺤﻭﻴﺭﻫﻤﺎ ﻟﺘﺘﻼﺀﻤﺎﻥ ﻤﻊ ﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﺘﻤﺜل ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﻤﺼﻐﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﺎﺌﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺍﺯﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﺤﺴﺏ ﻤﻌﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻜل ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﻭﻓﻘﺎ ﻟﻠﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻵﺘﻴﺔ‪:‬‬

‫‪Ri(t)=e‐λi t‬‬ ‫)‪(16‬‬

‫ﻭﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ) ‪ ( 16‬ﺘﻡ ﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻜﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﻟﻠﺯﻤﻥ ﻟﻜل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺜﻼﺙ ﻭﺠﻤﻌﻬﺎ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ (4‬ﻭﺘﻤﺜﻴﻠﻬﺎ ﺒﺎﻟﻤﺨﻁﻁ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ .(5‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺭﻴﻑ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺹ ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻌﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﻤﺜل‬
‫ﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ) ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ( ﻤﻬﻴﺄﺓ ﻟﻠﻌﻤل ﺨﻼل ﻓﺘﺭﺓ ﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﻤﺤﺩﺩﺓ ) ‪ ،( t‬ﻟﺫﻟﻙ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻤﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﻜل ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺜﻼﺙ ﺒﺎﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﻓﻘﺎ ﻟﻠﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻵﺘﻴﺔ‪:‬‬

‫)‪Prod i(t) = ni* 350 * Ri(t‬‬ ‫)‪(17‬‬

‫ﺤﻴﺙ ﺇﻥ ‪ ni‬ﻴﻤﺜل ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﺎﺌﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺅﻟﻔﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ‪ ،i‬ﻭ‪ 350‬ﻴﻤﺜل ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﻴﻭﻤﻲ ﻟﻜل ﻤﺎﻜﻨﺔ ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺘﻡ ﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﻴﻭﻤﻲ ﻟﻜل ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﻭﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ ) ‪.(4‬‬

‫))‪Availability (Ai(t‬‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺘﺎﺤﻴﺔ‬

‫‪٩٠‬‬ ‫‪ ‬‬
‫‪  ٢٠١١‬‬ ‫اﻟﻌﺪد ‪٤‬‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺠﻠﺪ ‪٤‬‬ ‫ﻣﺠﻠﺔ اﻟﻘﺎدﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻠﻮم اﻟﻬﻨﺪﺳﻴﺔ‬
‫‪ ‬‬
‫ﺘﺘﻨﺎﻗﺹ ﺍﻻﺘﺎﺤﻴﺔ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ ﻟﺘﺴﺘﻘﺭ ﻋﻨﺩ ﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﻟﺘﺄﺨﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺒﺘﺔ ) )‪ ( μi / (λi + μi‬ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻻ‬
‫ﻴﺅﺜﺭ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﻋﺎﻤل ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ‪ ،‬ﺒل ﻴﺼﺒﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺱ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﻟﻠﻤﻌﻠﻤﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﻴﻥ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻌﻁل ‪ λ‬ﻭﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻠﻴﺢ ‪μ‬‬
‫ﻭﻜﻤﺎ ﻻﺤﻅﻨﺎ ﺫﻟﻙ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ .( 11‬ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺭﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ ) ‪،( 2‬‬
‫ﻭﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ (18‬ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺇﺠﻤﺎل ﺨﻁﺔ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺘﻤﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺘﺎﺤﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪.(5‬‬

‫)‪Prod i(t) = ni* 350 * Ai(t‬‬ ‫)‪(18‬‬

‫ﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﻤﺎﺭﻜﻭﻑ ﻟﻼﺘﺎﺤﻴﺔ‬

‫ﻷﺠل ﺃﻥ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺨﻁﺔ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺘﻤﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺘﺎﺤﻴﺔ ﻜل ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺜﻼﺙ ﻻﺒﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﺨﺫ‬
‫ﻻ ﺒﻨﺠﺎﺡ ﻭﻓﻕ ﻤﺨﻁﻁ ﺤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﺠﺎﺡ ﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﻤﺎﺭﻜﻭﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﻀﺤﺔ‬
‫ﺒﻨﻅﺭ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺒﻘﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺸﻐﺎ ﹰ‬
‫ﺒﺎﻟﺸﻜل ﺭﻗﻡ ) ‪ ،( 4‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺇﻥ ﻜل ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﺘﻌﻤل ﺒﻨﺠﺎﺡ ﻭﻓﻘﹰﺎ ﻟﻠﺤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺒﻬﺎ ﻭﻜﻤﺎ ﻴﺄﺘﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ ﺘﻌﻤل ﺒﻨﺠﺎﺡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻻﺕ }) ‪{Psi = (1, 3, 4, 6‬؛‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﺘﻌﻤل ﺒﻨﺠﺎﺡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻻﺕ }) ‪{ Psi = (1, 2, 4, 7‬؛‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺜﺔ ﺘﻌﻤل ﺒﻨﺠﺎﺡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻻﺕ }) ‪{ Psi = (1, 2, 3, 5‬؛‬
‫ﺃﻤﺎ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﻓﺈﺫﺍ ﻤﺎ ﺍﺨﺫ ﺒﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﻤﺘﻜﺎﻤﻠﺔ ﻭﺘﻡ ﺘﺤﻠﻴﻠﻪ ﻭﻓﻘﹰﺎ ﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﻤﺎﺭﻜﻭﻑ ﻓﺄﻨﻪ ﻴﻌﻤل ﺒﻨﺠﺎﺡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻻﺕ‬
‫} )‪ ، {Psi = (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7‬ﻟﺫﻟﻙ ﻭﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺤل ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻻﺕ ) ‪ (14 ،13‬ﻓﺎﻥ ﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ﺤﺎﻻﺕ‬
‫ﻨﺠﺎﺡ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺒﺎﻟﻌﻤل ﺃﻭ ﺘﻭﻗﻔﻪ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻬﺎ ﺒﺎﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ .( 6‬ﻟﺫﻟﻙ ﺴﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺜﻼﺜﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻭﻨﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻠﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﻭﻓﻘﺎ ﻟﻼﺘﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺅﻟﻔﺔ ﻤﻥ ) ‪ (17‬ﻤﺎﻜﻨﺔ ﻓﺎﻥ ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺠﻬﺎ؛‬
‫‪Prod 1 = ( P1 + P3 + P4 + P6 ) * A1* 350 * n1‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺅﻟﻔﺔ ﻤﻥ ) ‪ (8‬ﻤﺎﻜﻨﺎﺕ ﻓﺎﻥ ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺠﻬﺎ؛‬
‫‪Prod 2 = ( P1 + P2 + P4 + P7 ) * A2* 350 * n2‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺅﻟﻔﺔ ﻤﻥ ) ‪ (7‬ﻤﺎﻜﻨﺎﺕ ﻓﺎﻥ ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺠﻬﺎ؛‬
‫‪Prod 3 = ( P1 + P2 + P3 + P5) * A3* 350 * n3‬‬
‫ﺘﻡ ﺍﺤﺘﺴﺎﺏ ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺜﻼﺜﺔ ﻭﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ ) ‪ ( 7‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺇﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﻬﺎ ﻫﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪( Prod1= 5860 , Prod2= 2649, & Prod3= 2171‬‬ ‫)ﻡﻁ‬
‫‪i =3‬‬
‫(؛‬ ‫‪∑ Pr od‬‬ ‫‪i‬‬ ‫ﺒﺫﻟﻙ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﻴﻭﻤﻲ ﻟﻠﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﻤﺴﺎﻭﻴﺎ ﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺜﻼﺙ )‬
‫‪i =1‬‬

‫ﻡ ﻁ ‪Prod s = Prod1 + Prod2 + Prod3 = 5860 + 2649 + 2171= 10680‬‬

‫ﺃﻤﺎ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺭﻱ ﻟﻠﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ) ‪ 320400= 30 x 10680‬ﻡ ﻁ (‪.‬‬
‫ﺒﺫﻟﻙ ﺴﺘﺯﺩﺍﺩ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ ) ‪.(78%=((320400-30x6000)/180000)x100%‬‬

‫‪٩١‬‬ ‫‪ ‬‬
‫‪  ٢٠١١‬‬ ‫اﻟﻌﺪد ‪٤‬‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺠﻠﺪ ‪٤‬‬ ‫ﻣﺠﻠﺔ اﻟﻘﺎدﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻠﻮم اﻟﻬﻨﺪﺳﻴﺔ‬
‫‪ ‬‬

‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻨﺘﺎﺠﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺃﺠﺭﻴﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ ﺘﺒﻴﻥ ﺇﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺘﺤﻠﻴﻼﺕ ﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﻤﺎﺭﻜﻭﻑ ﻤﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺘﺎﺤﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺨﻁﻴﻁ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﻟﻠﻨﻅﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺍﺯﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‪:‬‬
‫ﺘﺘﺄﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﺯﻤﻥ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻨﻬﺎ ﺘﺘﻨﺎﻗﺹ ﻤﻌﻪ ﻜﻤﺎ ﻤﻭﻀﺢ ﺒﺎﻟﺸﻜﻠﻴﻥ ) ‪ ،(5 ،3‬ﻓﻲ ﺤﻴﻥ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﻩ‬ ‫أ(‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺘﺎﺤﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺒﺩﺍﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﻺﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﻭﻴﻨﺘﻬﻲ ﺫﻟﻙ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻋﻨﺩ ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل ﺇﻟﻰ ﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ‬
‫ﻤﻬﻤﺎ ﻁﺎﻟﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﻜﻤﺎ ﻤﻭﻀﺢ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪.(3‬‬
‫ب( ﻻ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﻤﺎﺭﻜﻭﻑ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻭﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻲ ﺘﺨﻁﻴﻁ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﻟﻸﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺍﺯﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻤﺎ ﻟﻡ ﺘﺩﺨل ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻤﺠﺎل ﺍﻻﺘﺎﺤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻜﻭﻨﻬﺎ ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺩﺍﺌﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺼﺎﻥ ﻭﻻ ﻴﺩﺨل ﻀﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﺘﺼﻠﻴﺢ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻜﻨﺔ ﻹﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺤﺎﻟﺘﻬﺎ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺴﺒﻕ ﺍﻟﻌﻁل ) ﻻﺤﻅ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻠﻴﻥ ﺭﻗﻤﻲ ‪ 1‬ﻭ ‪ ،( 5‬ﺫﻟﻙ ﻷﻨﻪ ﻤﻥ ﺼﻔﺎﺕ ﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﻤﺎﺭﻜﻭﻑ ﺃﻨﻬﺎ ﺘﺘﻼﺀﻡ‬
‫ﻤﻊ ﺍﻷﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﻠﻘﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺘﻬﺎ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺤﺎﻻﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ) ﻻﺤﻅ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻠﻴﻥ ﺭﻗﻤﻲ ‪ 2‬ﻭ ‪.(4‬‬
‫ج( ﺇﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﻤﺎﺭﻜﻭﻑ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻻﺘﺎﺤﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺨﻁﻴﻁ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﻟﻸﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺍﺯﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻬﺠﻴﻨﺔ ﻜﻭﻨﻬﺎ‬
‫ﺘﺄﺨﺫ ﺍﻟﻌﻁﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﺼﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﺎﺌﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻭﻨﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﻭﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺘﺼﻠﻴﺤﻬﺎ ﺒﺎﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ)ﻻﺤﻅ ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ﺭﻗﻡ‪.(4‬‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﺘﺨﻁﻴﻁ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﻠﻲ ﻴﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﺩﻨﻴﺎ ﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﺎﺌﻥ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺃﻥ ﻴﺄﺨﺫ ﺒﺎﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺤﺎﻻﺕ‬ ‫د(‬
‫ﺘﺼﻠﻴﺢ ﺍﻟﻌﻁﻼﺕ ﻭﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﺎﺌﻥ ﻟﻠﻌﻤل‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻴﻅﻬﺭ ﻭﺍﻀﺤﹰﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻗﺭﺍﺀﺓ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻔﻌﻠﻲ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻭﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ ) ‪.( 4‬‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺼل ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺨﻁﻴﻁ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻜل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﺘﺎﺤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺭﺩﺓ ﻭﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ‬ ‫هـ(‬
‫ﻤﺎﺭﻜﻭﻑ ﻟﻼﺘﺎﺤﻴﺔ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﻤﺘﻘﺎﺭﺒﺔ ﻜﻭﻨﻬﻤﺎ ﻗﺭﻴﺒﺎﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﺨﺫﺍ ﻋﻁل ﺍﻟﻤﻜﺎﺌﻥ ﻭﺘﺼﻠﻴﺤﻬﺎ‬
‫ﻭﺇﻋﺎﺩﺘﻬﺎ ﻟﻠﻌﻤل ﺒﻨﻅﺭ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ) ﻻﺤﻅ ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ﺭﻗﻡ ‪ 4‬ﻭ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭﻟﻴﻥ ﺭﻗﻤﻲ ‪ 6‬ﻭ ‪ ،( 7‬ﻓﻀﻼ ﻋﻥ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺘﻬﻤﺎ‬
‫ﻟﻺﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ ‪ 78%‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﻌﻜﺱ ﻀﻴﺎﻉ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻁﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻁﻴﻁﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻜﺎﺌﻥ ﺒﺎﻟﺨﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺘﻤﺩﺓ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﻨﻊ ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ‬
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‫‪٩٢‬‬ ‫‪ ‬‬
  ٢٠١١ ٤ ‫اﻟﻌﺪد‬ ٤ ‫اﻟﻤﺠﻠﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﺠﻠﺔ اﻟﻘﺎدﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻠﻮم اﻟﻬﻨﺪﺳﻴﺔ‬
 

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M/A Press, 1981.

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٩٣  
‫‪  ٢٠١١‬‬ ‫اﻟﻌﺪد ‪٤‬‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺠﻠﺪ ‪٤‬‬ ‫ﻣﺠﻠﺔ اﻟﻘﺎدﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻠﻮم اﻟﻬﻨﺪﺳﻴﺔ‬
‫‪ ‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ‪ 1‬ﻤﺼﻔﻭﻓﺔ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬
‫‪From ‬‬ ‫‪1 ‬‬ ‫‪2 ‬‬ ‫‪3 ‬‬ ‫‪4 ‬‬ ‫‪5 ‬‬ ‫‪6 ‬‬ ‫‪7 ‬‬ ‫‪8 ‬‬
‫‪State To ‬‬

‫‐‪(1‐λ1‬‬
‫‪1 ‬‬ ‫‪λ 1‬‬ ‫‪λ 2‬‬ ‫‪λ 3‬‬ ‫‪_ ‬‬ ‫_‪ ‬‬ ‫_‪ ‬‬ ‫_‪ ‬‬
‫‪λ2‐λ3) ‬‬

‫‐‪(1‐μ1‬‬
‫‪2 ‬‬ ‫‪μ1‬‬ ‫_‪ ‬‬ ‫_‪ ‬‬ ‫‪λ 2‬‬ ‫‪_ ‬‬ ‫‪λ 3‬‬ ‫‪_ ‬‬
‫‪λ2‐λ3) ‬‬

‫‐‪(1‐λ1‬‬
‫‪3 ‬‬ ‫‪μ 2‬‬ ‫‪_ ‬‬ ‫‪_ ‬‬ ‫‪λ 1‬‬ ‫‪λ 3‬‬ ‫‪_ ‬‬ ‫‪_ ‬‬
‫‪μ2‐λ3) ‬‬

‫‐‪(1‐λ1‬‬
‫‪[ P ]= ‬‬ ‫‪4 ‬‬ ‫‪μ 3‬‬ ‫‪_ ‬‬ ‫‪_ ‬‬ ‫‪_ ‬‬ ‫‪λ 2‬‬ ‫‪λ 1‬‬ ‫‪_ ‬‬
‫‪λ2‐μ3) ‬‬

‫‐‪(1‐μ1‬‬
‫‪5 ‬‬ ‫‪_ ‬‬ ‫‪μ 2‬‬ ‫‪μ1‬‬ ‫‪_ ‬‬ ‫‪_ ‬‬ ‫‪_ ‬‬ ‫‪λ 3‬‬
‫‪μ2‐λ3) ‬‬

‫‐‪(1‐λ1‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ‪ 2‬ﻋﺩﺩ ﻤﻜﺎﺌﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻭﻤﻌﺎﻟﻤﻬﺎ‬

‫ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻠﻴﺢ ‪μ‬‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻌﻁل ‪λ‬‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ‬
‫ﻤﺎﻜﻨﺔ ‪ /‬ﻴﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﺎﻜﻨﺔ‪ /‬ﻴﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻜﺎﺌﻥ‬ ‫‪i‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0.02‬‬ ‫‪17‬‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻭﻟﻰ ‪1‬‬
‫‪2.5‬‬ ‫‪0.07‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ‪2‬‬
‫‪1.8‬‬ ‫‪0.113‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺜﺔ ‪3‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ‪ 3‬ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻴﻴﺭ ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﻟﻺﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﻴﻭﻤﻲ ﻟﻠﻘﺴﻡ‬

‫ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺭﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ ﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﻴﻭﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬
‫ﻡ ﻁ‪/‬ﻴﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻜﻨﺔ ‪S‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻌﻠﻲ ﻟﻠﻘﺴﻡ ﻡ‬
‫_‬
‫ﻟﻠﻤﺎﻜﻨﺔ ‪ X‬ﻡ ﻁ‪/‬ﻴﻭﻡ‬
‫ﻁ‪/‬ﻴﻭﻡ‬
‫‪40‬‬ ‫‪345.5‬‬ ‫‪6000‬‬

‫‪٩٤‬‬ ‫‪ ‬‬
‫‪  ٢٠١١‬‬ ‫اﻟﻌﺪد ‪٤‬‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺠﻠﺪ ‪٤‬‬ ‫ﻣﺠﻠﺔ اﻟﻘﺎدﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻠﻮم اﻟﻬﻨﺪﺳﻴﺔ‬
‫‪ ‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ‪ 4‬ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﻴﻭﻤﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺜﻼﺙ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ‪ 5‬ﺍﻻﺘﺎﺤﻴﺔ ﻭﺇﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺎﺕ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ‪ 6‬ﺤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﻭﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎﻻﺘﻪ‬

‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ‪i‬‬
‫ﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎﻟﻬﺎ ‪0.0005 0.0014 0.0014 0.0007 0.0550 0.0250 0.0060 0.9100‬‬
‫‪Pi‬‬

‫‪٩٥‬‬ ‫‪ ‬‬
‫‪  ٢٠١١‬‬ ‫اﻟﻌﺪد ‪٤‬‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺠﻠﺪ ‪٤‬‬ ‫ﻣﺠﻠﺔ اﻟﻘﺎدﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻠﻮم اﻟﻬﻨﺪﺳﻴﺔ‬
‫‪ ‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ‪ 7‬ﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﻤﺎﺭﻜﻭﻑ ﻻﺘﺎﺤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﻭﺍﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺎﺕ‬

‫‪1‬‬
‫‪1‐λ∆t ‬‬

‫‪0 ‬‬ ‫‪λ∆t‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬

‫‪S0=y1 ‬‬ ‫_‪S1=ŷ1‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ‪ 1‬ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻤﺎﺭﻜﻭﻑ ﻴﻤﺜل ﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻜﻨﺔ ﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﻟﻔﺸل‬

‫‪1‐λ∆t ‬‬ ‫‪1‐μ∆t‬‬

‫‪0 ‬‬ ‫‪λ∆t‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬

‫‪S0=y1 ‬‬ ‫_‪S1=ŷ1‬‬
‫‪μ∆t‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ‪ 2‬ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻤﺎﺭﻜﻭﻑ ﻴﻤﺜل ﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻜﻨﺔ ﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﻟﻔﺸل ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺼﻠﻴﺢ‬

‫‪٩٦‬‬ ‫‪ ‬‬
‫‪  ٢٠١١‬‬ ‫اﻟﻌﺪد ‪٤‬‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺠﻠﺪ ‪٤‬‬ ‫ﻣﺠﻠﺔ اﻟﻘﺎدﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻠﻮم اﻟﻬﻨﺪﺳﻴﺔ‬
‫‪ ‬‬

‫‪f(t) ‬‬

‫‪A(t) ‬‬

‫‪μ/(λ+μ) ‬‬

‫‪R(t) ‬‬

‫‪time ‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ‪ 3‬ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺘﺎﺤﻴﺔ ﻋﻨﺩ ﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ‬

‫‪M1 ‬‬
‫‪   State    1 ‬‬
‫‪μ1‬‬ ‫‪μ3‬‬
‫‪M2 ‬‬
‫‪1 up, 2 up, ‬‬

‫‪M3 ‬‬ ‫‪μ2‬‬
‫‪λ1‬‬
‫‪λ2‬‬
‫‪   State    2 ‬‬ ‫‪   State    3 ‬‬ ‫‪λ3‬‬ ‫‪   State    4 ‬‬

‫‪1 dn, 2 up, ‬‬ ‫‪1 up, 2 dn, ‬‬ ‫‪1 up, 2 up, ‬‬

‫‪μ3  ‬‬ ‫‪μ1‬‬ ‫‪μ2‬‬
‫‪μ2  ‬‬ ‫‪μ3‬‬ ‫‪μ1  ‬‬

‫‪λ2  ‬‬ ‫‪λ1  ‬‬
‫‪λ3‬‬
‫‪   State    5 ‬‬ ‫‪λ1  ‬‬ ‫‪   State    6 ‬‬ ‫‪λ2‬‬ ‫‪λ3‬‬ ‫‪   State    7 ‬‬

‫‪1 dn, 2 dn, ‬‬ ‫‪1 up, 2 dn, ‬‬ ‫‪1 dn, 2 up, ‬‬

‫‪μ3  ‬‬ ‫‪μ1‬‬ ‫‪μ2  ‬‬

‫‪λ1‬‬
‫‪   State    8 ‬‬
‫‪λ2‬‬
‫‪λ3‬‬ ‫‪1 dn, 2 dn, ‬‬

‫‪ ‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ‪ 4‬ﺤﺎﻻﺕ ﻤﺎﺭﻜﻭﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻜﻨﺔ ﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﻤﺘﻭﺍﺯﻱ ﺒﺜﻼﺙ ﻤﺤﻁﺎﺕ‬

‫‪٩٧‬‬ ‫‪ ‬‬
‫‪  ٢٠١١‬‬ ‫اﻟﻌﺪد ‪٤‬‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺠﻠﺪ ‪٤‬‬ ‫ﻣﺠﻠﺔ اﻟﻘﺎدﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻠﻮم اﻟﻬﻨﺪﺳﻴﺔ‬
‫‪ ‬‬

‫اﻟﻤﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ‪١‬‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻮﻟﻴﺔ اﻟﻤﺠﻤﻮﻋﺎت اﻟﺜ ﻼث‬

‫اﻟﻤﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ‪٢‬‬

‫اﻟﻤﻌﻮﻟﻴﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ‪٣‬‬
‫‪1.200‬‬

‫‪1.000‬‬

‫‪0.800‬‬

‫‪0.600‬‬

‫‪0.400‬‬

‫‪0.200‬‬

‫‪0.000‬‬
‫‪ 29 27 25 23 21 19 17 15 13 11 9‬اﻟﺰﻣﻦ ﻳﻮم ‪t‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ‪ 5‬ﻤﻌﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺜﻼﺙ ﻜﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﻟﻠﺯﻤﻥ‬

‫‪٩٨‬‬ ‫‪ ‬‬