Arno SmeLs

!"#$%&'()%" #% +%,-$ ."/$01

+#-#'2 -"& 3$%24/(#2 %5 +%,-$ ."/$01
!""# %&'
30000
23000
20000
13000
10000
3000
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2003 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
MW
2009: 87 wafer-Lype c-Sl Lechnology
+%,-$ (/,, 4$%&'()%"
27213
12464
7910
4279
2336
1813
1237
730 360 401
40 34 68 43
40
69
83
36
118
mono c-Sl
poly c-Sl
rlbbon cSl
a-Sl 678"9
Cd1e :,;
ClCS 2%,-$
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C
a
p
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(
C
W
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2000 2002 2004 2006 2010
?ear
Chlna
Asla aclc
8esL of World
Amerlcas
Mlddle LasL and Afrlca
Luropean unlon
2012 2008
70
60
30
40
30
20
10
0
80
90
100
110
70
60
30
40
30
20
10
0
80
90
100
110
!"2#-,,/& 3<
Source: LlA
8esL of Lhe world (12,334, 12)

lndla (1,203, 1)
Creece (1,336, 1)
unlLed klngdom(1,829, 2)
Czech 8epubllc (2,072, 2)
AusLralla (2, 412, 2)
8elglum (2,630, 2)
lrance (4,003, 4)

Spaln (3,166, 4)

!apan (3,166, 3)


uSA (7,777, 7)
Cermany (32,411, 31)







lLaly (16,361, 16)

Chlna (8,300, 8)
8esL of
Lhe world
Lu
Source: LlA
30
40
30
20
10
0
60
70
80
90
100
M
a
r
k
e
L


M
a
r
k
e
L


M
a
r
k
e
L


M
a
r
k
e
L


M
a
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k
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L


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a
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L


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a
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k
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a
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e
L


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2003 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
8CW
Chlna
Amerlcas
AAC
Lurope
Source: LlA
30
40
30
20
10
0
60
70
80
90
100

r
o
d
u
c
u
o
n

r
o
d
u
c
u
o
n

r
o
d
u
c
u
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n

r
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d
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c
u
o
n

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d
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n

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d
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u
o
n

r
o
d
u
c
u
o
n

8CW
Chlna
Amerlcas
AAC
Lurope
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2003 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: LlA
30
40
30
20
10
0
60
70
80
90
100
M
a
r
k
e
L

r
o
d
u
c
u
o
n

M
a
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L

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d
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n

M
a
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a
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n

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d
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n

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a
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L

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d
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u
o
n

M
a
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L

r
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d
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c
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n

M
a
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L

r
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d
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c
u
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n

8CW
Chlna
Amerlcas
AAC
Lurope
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2003 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: LlA
100
10
1
10
-4
10
-3
10
-2
10
-1
10
0
10
1
10
2
10
3
10
4
Source: navlganL Consulung
v Module
Cumulauve lnsLallauons (CW)
A
v
e
r
a
g
e

g
l
o
b
a
l

s
a
l
e
s

p
r
l
c
e

(
u
S
u
/
W
)

Learnlng curve: v modules, sysLems
100
10
1
10
-4
10
-3
10
-2
10
-1
10
0
10
1
10
2
10
3
10
4
Source: navlganL Consulung
v Module
Cumulauve lnsLallauons (CW)
A
v
e
r
a
g
e

g
l
o
b
a
l

s
a
l
e
s

p
r
l
c
e

(
u
S
u
/
W
)

Learnlng curve: v modules, sysLems
v SysLem
100
10
1
10
-4
10
-3
10
-2
10
-1
10
0
10
1
10
2
10
3
10
4
Source: navlganL Consulung
v Module
Cumulauve lnsLallauons (CW)
A
v
e
r
a
g
e

g
l
o
b
a
l

s
a
l
e
s

p
r
l
c
e

(
u
S
u
/
W
)

Learnlng curve: v modules, sysLems
v SysLem
non-modular cosL
!"2#-,,/& 3<
Pydro
nuclear
Wlnd
Solar
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
0,1
1
10
100
1000
C
u
m

l
n
s
L
a
l
l
e
d

C
a
p
.

(
C
W
)

1lme
!"2#-,,/& 3%=/$ >"% 5%228, 2%'$(/?
Pydro C
l
= 0,40
nuclear C
l
= 0,90
Wlnd C
l
= 0,30
Solar C
l
= 0,13
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
0,1
1
10
100
1000
L

e
c
u
v
e

l
n
s
L
a
l
l
e
d

o
w
e
r

(
C
W
)

1lme
Lecuve
(C
l
= capaclLy facLor)

67-"@ 1%' 5%$ 1%'$ -A/")%"B