ESTIMACIN

DE

LA

DEMANDA

POTENCIAL.

MTODO

MODELOS

ECONOMETRICOS POR PRECIO.

AO

Produccin
(Ton)

Importacin
(Ton)

Exportacin
(Ton)

C A (Ton)

Precio ($/Kg)

2000

1,048,529.49

2286.101732

1,050,815.59

2.48

2001

969,517.84

2,269.61

0.00

971,787.45

2.56

2002

857,805.06

8924.680158

113748.4517

752,981.29

2.96

2003

952,212.02

2101.581404

228,965.62

725,347.98

2.65

2004

1,003,488.06

2140.315003

262,008.12

743,620.25

2.87

2005

864,765.54

1,869.89

269,810.61

596,824.82

3.22

2006

976,772.86

3,770.03

326,021.78

654,521.11

3.59

2007

1,058,847.80

1435.259408

295,263.75

765,019.31

3.59

2008

1,188,389.28

2101.666165

474,941.81

715,549.14

3.83

2009

1,007,154.73

2156.916894

546,692.41

462,619.24

4.05

2010

1,036,794.71

1,434.08

583,311.73

454,917.06

4.41

2011

1,002,018.60

960.68994

535,367.37

467,611.92

4.26

2012

1,033,524.43

461.91672

563090.7998

470,895.55

3.95

Consumo Aparente vs Precio

1,200,000.00
y = -244436x + 2E+06
R = 0.7342

1,000,000.00

C A (Ton)

800,000.00

Lineal
2

CA vs Precio
600,000.00
Linear (CA vs
Precio)

400,000.00
200,000.00
0.00
0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

Precio ($/Kg)

4.00

5.00

0.734154671

-244436.2088

1514549.61

Consumo Aparente vs Precio

1,200,000.00
1,000,000.00

y = 3E+06x-1.21
R = 0.7519
Potencial

C A (Ton)

800,000.00
2

600,000.00
CA vs Precio
400,000.00

0.751866902

-1.210188464

2835174.374

Power (CA vs Precio)

200,000.00
0.00
0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

Precio ($/Kg)

Consumo Aparente vs Precio

1,200,000.00
1,000,000.00

y = 2,273,934.83e-0.36x
R = 0.76

C A (Ton)

800,000.00

Exponencial
2

600,000.00
CA vs Precio
400,000.00
Expon. (CA vs Precio)

0.755819105

-0.364156626

2273934.835

200,000.00
0.00
0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

Precio ($/Kg)

Lineal

Precio ($/Kg)

Precio vs Tiempo
5.00
4.50
4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00

R2

0.8989186

0.16282967

-323.2197802

Precio ($/Kg)

y = 0.1628x - 323.22
R = 0.8989

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

Tiempo (Ao)

Precio vs Tiempo
5.00
Precio ($/Kg)

Precio ($/Kg)

4.00

Logartmica

3.00

Log. (Precio
($/Kg))
y = 326.66ln(x)
- 2480.5

0.89904049

2.00

R = 0.899

326.6576751

-2480.454526

1.00

0.00
2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

Tiempo (Ao)

Polinmica
2

0.9051

-16654

b1

-0.0041

b2

16.445

Precio ($/Kg)

Precio vs Tiempo
5.00
4.50
4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00

Precio
($/Kg)

y = -0.0041x2 + 16.445x - 16654

R = 0.9051

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

Tiempo (Ao)
PRECIO DE VENTA
AO

p Lin ($/Kg)

p Log ($/Kg)

p Pol ($/Kg)

p Prom ($/Kg)

2013

4.56

4.56

-164.11

5.53

2014

4.72

4.72

-164.17

5.61

2015

4.88

4.88

-164.25

5.69

2016

5.04

5.04

-164.33

5.77

2017

5.21

5.20

-164.42

5.85

2018

5.37

5.37

-164.52

5.94

2019

5.53

5.53

-164.63

6.02

2020

5.70

5.69

-164.74

6.10

2021

5.86

5.85

-164.86

6.18

2022

6.02

6.01

-164.99

6.26

2023

6.18

6.17

-165.13

6.34

2024

6.35

6.34

-165.28

6.42

2025

6.51

6.50

-165.44

6.50

Tendencia del precio.

Tendencia del Precio

50.00

-150.00
-200.00

Tiempo (Ao)
p Lin ($/Kg)

p Log ($/Kg)

p Pol ($/Kg)

p Prom ($/Kg)

2025

-100.00

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

-50.00

2013

Precio($/Kg)

0.00

Estimacin de la Demanda Potencial.

AO

Precio ($/Kg)

Dp Lineal
(Ton/ao)

Dp Potencial
(Ton/ao)

Dp Exponencial
(Ton/ao)

Dp Promedio
(Ton/ao)

2013

5.53

162821.76

357885.49

307685.10

276130.78

2014

5.61

142975.44

351628.09

298780.65

264461.39

2015

5.69

123132.40

345568.63

290135.30

252945.44

2016

5.77

103292.62

339698.15

281741.47

241577.42

2017

5.85

83456.12

334008.21

273591.81

230352.04

2018

5.94

63622.87

328490.84

265679.17

219264.29

2019

6.02

43792.89

323138.55

257996.61

208309.35

2020

6.10

23966.18

317944.26

250537.42

197482.62

2021

6.18

4142.72

312901.27

243295.06

186779.68

2022

6.26

-15677.49

308003.27

236263.20

176196.33

2023

6.34

-35494.44

303244.27

229435.68

165728.50

2024

6.42

-55308.14

298618.63

222806.53

155372.34

2025

6.50

-75118.59

294120.96

216369.97

145124.11

Dp vs Precio
400000.00

Dp (Ton/ao)

300000.00
200000.00
100000.00
0.00

Dp Potencial (Ton/ao)

Dp Exponencial (Ton/ao)

Dp Promedio (Ton/ao)

2026

Dp Lineal (Ton/ao)

2025

Tiempo (Ao)

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

-100000.00