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To: Senate Majority PAC and Put Alaska First

From: Andrew Maxfield and Paul Harstad
Date: October 23, 2014
Re: New Alaska Survey Shows a 44% to 44% Tie between Begich and Sullivan

Our latest survey in Alaska completed just yesterday confirms a tie between Mark Begich
and Dan Sullivan in the U.S. Senate race. Overall, 44% of voters prefer Begich while
44% favor Sullivan, with 4% for Libertarian Mark Fish and 7% undecided.
The survey was conducted by telephone (using live interviewers reaching voters on both
landlines and cell phones) among 700 likely voters from October 18 to 22, 2014.
The survey shows that Begich continues to do much better among Democrats (by 94% to
2%) than Sullivan does among the more numerous Republicans (by 82% to 9%), and it
confirms that Begich is expanding his lead among Independents (ahead by 47% to 29%).
As far as the gender gap is concerned, it shows Begich leading among women by 9%
while trailing Sullivan among men by an 11% margin. Begich also leads among the
pivotal Alaska Natives by 52% to 35%.
This race in the Frontier state could not be closer, and the outcome will probably depend
upon which side has the better field operation. Those observers on the East Coast will
not know the outcome until Wednesday, November 5
, at the very earliest.

The survey was conducted by Harstad Strategic Research, Inc. by telephone using live
interviewers reaching likely voters on both landlines and cell phones. The sample was
drawn from a list of active voters in Alaska, which is far more reliable especially in a
midterm election than a random-digit-sample ostensibly starting with all adults and
attempting to screen down to likely voters. This survey was conducted among 700 likely
voters from October 18 to 22, 2014.