Chapter 5 FRAPPY!

Scoring Guidelines

Intent of the question The primary goals of this question are to assess a students ability to: (1)
calculate a probability; (2) determine if two events are independent; (3) describe how to estimate a
probability using a table of random digits; and (4) estimate a probability using a table of random
digits.

Model Solution

(a) Here is a two-way table that organizes this information.

Male Female Total
Completed assignment 11 19 30
Did not complete assignment 6 4 10
Total 17 23 40

P(complete) = 30/40 = 0.75.
There is a 0.75 probability that the student completed the assignment.

(b) No. P(complete | female) = 19/23 = 0.826 is not equal to P(complete) = 30/40 = 0.75.
Knowing that the student is a female increases the probability that the assignment was completed.

(c) Let 0130 = completed assignment and 3140 = didnt complete assignment. Skip 00 and
4199. Going left to right on the random digit table, choose 4 different two-digit numbers from
0140. Count the number of students among the four chosen who completed the assignment (i.e.,
count how many of the numbers are 0130). Repeat this process many times. To estimate the
probability that 2 or fewer students completed the assignment, divide the number of trials where 2
or fewer completed the assignment by the total number of trials.

(d) Two-digit numbers that represent students are underlined and annotated with y (completed
assignment) or n (didnt complete assignment). Vertical bars separate the three trials. Based on
these three trials, P(2 or fewer completed assignment) 1/3.


1 2 9 7 5 1 3 2 5 8 1 3 0 4 8 4 5 1 4 4 7 2 3 2 1 8 1 9 4 0 0 0 3 6 0 0 2 4 2 8
y n y y n y y n n y y
(trial 1: 3/4 completed) (trial 2: 2/4 completed)


9 6 7 6 7 3 5 9 6 4 2 3 8 2 2 9 6 0 1 2 9 4 9 5 1 6 5 1 9 4 5 0 8 4 2 5 5 3 7 2
y
(trial 3: 3/4 completed)


3 7 6 0 9 5 9 0 5 7 6 6 9 6 7 8 3 4 0 1 6 0 7 0 5 0 2 3 8 4 9 0 5 9 7 9 3 6 0 0



Scoring
Parts (a)(d) are scored essentially correct (E), partially correct (P), or incorrect (I).

Part (a) is scored as follows

Essentially correct (E) if the response calculates the correct probability and shows work (e.g.,
includes fraction 30/40 or two-way table with totals).

Partially correct (P) if the response calculates the correct probability but doesnt show work

Incorrect (I) otherwise.

Note: It isnt necessary to include a two-way table in the response.



Part (b) is scored as follows

Essentially correct (E) if the response identifies two values whose inequality implies a lack of
independence between the events AND includes the following three components:
1. Correct computations of the two values.
2. An explicit statement of whether the two values are equal or unequal.
3. An appropriate conclusion about the independence of the events.

Partially correct (P) if the response identifies two values whose inequality implies a lack of
independence between the events but includes only two of the three components listed above.

Incorrect (I) if the response fails to meet the criteria for E or P.

Note: Other valid comparisons include
P(complete | female) P(complete | male)
P(female | complete) P(female)
P(female | complete) P(female | not complete)
P(female and complete) P(female) P(complete)



Part (c) is scored as follows

Essentially correct (E) if the response includes the following three components
1. Uses a valid assignment of numerical labels for the 40 students
2. Describes the process of selecting 4 different students using the table of random digits
3. Records the number of students in the group of 4 that completed the assignment

Partially correct (P) if the response includes two of the components listed above.

Incorrect (I) otherwise.

Notes:
A valid assignment of numerical labels means that each label is the same length and each
student who completed the assignment has a 30/40 probability of being the first student
selected, a 29/39 or 30/39 probability of being the second student selected, and so on.
If the response doesnt make it clear that the sample is being selected without replacement,
the response doesnt earn credit for the second component.
To earn credit for the third component, the response must clearly describe what should be
recorded at the end of each trial (e.g., record the data is not sufficient).
It isnt necessary to include a statement about how to calculate the probability, as this is
assessed in part (d).


Part (d) is scored as follows

Essentially correct (E) if the response includes the following two components
1. Uses the table of random digits (either by marking on or above the digits in the table or
rewriting the digits used in each trial) to complete at least 3 trials and uses clear
annotations, including the number of students that completed the assignment in each trial.
2. Calculates a probability that is consistent with the results of the simulation and clearly
indicates that this probability is an estimate (e.g., by saying estimated, using the
symbol).

Partially correct (P) if the response includes one of the components above.

Incorrect (I) otherwise.


Each essentially correct (E) part counts as 1 point. Each partially correct (P) part counts as point.
If a response is between two scores (for example, 2 points), use a holistic approach to decide
whether to score up or down, depending on the overall strength of the response and
communication, particularly in parts (b) and (c).

4 Complete Response

3 Substantial Response

2 Developing Response

1 Minimal Response