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MegaStat 8.9 2001 by J. B.

Orris, Butler University

5-Dec-12 2:00 PM

Centered Moving Average and Deseasonalization

t
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16

1
2
3
4
mean:
adjusted:

Year
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4

Quarter
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4

1ao
205
123
150
190
206
115
150
210
200
138
101
175
200
125
110
200

Calculation of Seasonal Indexes


1
2
3
0.898
1.247
0.686
0.885
1.188
0.874
0.658
1.321
0.803
1.252
0.788
0.813
1.244
0.783
0.808

Centered
Moving
Average

Ratio to
CMA

167.125
166.250
165.250
167.750
169.500
171.625
168.375
157.875
153.500
151.875
151.375
155.625

0.898
1.143
1.247
0.686
0.885
1.224
1.188
0.874
0.658
1.152
1.321
0.803

Seasonal
1ao
Indexes Deseasonalized
1.244
164.8
0.783
157.2
0.808
185.6
1.165
163.0
1.244
165.6
0.783
147.0
0.808
185.6
1.165
180.2
1.244
160.8
0.783
176.3
0.808
125.0
1.165
150.2
1.244
160.8
0.783
159.7
0.808
136.1
1.165
171.6

4
1.143
1.224
1.152
1.173
1.165

4.026
4.000

Centered Moving Average and Deseasonalization

t
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16

Year
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4

Quarter
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4

total
1,050
600
575
982
1,010
652
537
990
998
650
550
932
1,070
632
525
980

Centered
Moving
Average

Ratio to
CMA

796.750
798.250
800.000
796.250
795.750
794.000
795.375
789.750
791.500
798.250
792.875
795.750

0.722
1.230
1.263
0.819
0.675
1.247
1.255
0.823
0.695
1.168
1.350
0.794

Seasonal
total
Indexes Deseasonalized
1.285
817.3
0.809
741.3
0.695
827.5
1.211
810.9
1.285
786.1
0.809
805.5
0.695
772.8
1.211
817.5
1.285
776.8
0.809
803.1
0.695
791.5
1.211
769.6
1.285
832.8
0.809
780.8
0.695
755.5
1.211
809.3

MegaStat 8.9 2001 by J. B. Orris, Butler University

1
2
3
4
mean:
adjusted:

Calculation of Seasonal Indexes


1
2
3
0.722
1.263
0.819
0.675
1.255
0.823
0.695
1.350
0.794
1.289
0.812
0.697
1.285
0.809
0.695

5-Dec-12 2:00 PM

4
1.230
1.247
1.168
1.215
1.211

4.013
4.000

Centered Moving Average and Deseasonalization

t
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16

1
2
3
4
mean:
adjusted:

Year
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4

Quarter
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4

3ao
325
180
155
218
310
190
160
300
300
205
150
275
315
191
160
288

Calculation of Seasonal Indexes


1
2
3
0.712
1.416
0.827
0.670
1.250
0.870
0.640
1.346
0.806
1.337
0.834
0.674
1.341
0.837
0.676

Centered
Moving
Average

Ratio to
CMA

217.625
217.000
218.875
229.750
238.750
239.375
240.000
235.625
234.375
234.500
234.000
236.875

0.712
1.005
1.416
0.827
0.670
1.253
1.250
0.870
0.640
1.173
1.346
0.806

Seasonal
3ao
Indexes Deseasonalized
1.341
242.4
0.837
215.2
0.676
229.3
1.147
190.1
1.341
231.2
0.837
227.1
0.676
236.7
1.147
261.7
1.341
223.7
0.837
245.0
0.676
221.9
1.147
239.9
1.341
234.9
0.837
228.3
0.676
236.7
1.147
251.2

4
1.005
1.253
1.173
1.144
1.147

3.990
4.000

Centered Moving Average and Deseasonalization

t
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

Year
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2

Quarter
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4

VIT
520
297
270
507
494
347
227
480

Centered
Moving
Average

Ratio to
CMA

395.250
398.250
399.125
390.375
387.500
383.000

0.683
1.273
1.238
0.889
0.586
1.253

Seasonal
VIT
Indexes Deseasonalized
1.291
402.7
0.813
365.3
0.668
404.4
1.228
412.8
1.291
382.6
0.813
426.8
0.668
340.0
1.228
390.8

MegaStat 8.9 2001 by J. B. Orris, Butler University


9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16

1
2
3
4
mean:
adjusted:

3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4

1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4

498
307
299
482
555
316
255
492

Calculation of Seasonal Indexes


1
2
3
0.683
1.238
0.889
0.586
1.287
0.775
0.741
1.362
0.784
1.295
0.816
0.670
1.291
0.813
0.668

387.000
396.250
403.625
411.875
407.500
403.250

5-Dec-12 2:00 PM
1.287
0.775
0.741
1.170
1.362
0.784

4
1.273
1.253
1.170
1.232
1.228

4.013
4.000

1.291
0.813
0.668
1.228
1.291
0.813
0.668
1.228

385.7
377.6
447.8
392.5
429.8
388.7
381.9
400.6

1ao

total
205
123
150
190
206
115
150
210
200
138
101
175
200
125
110
200

3ao
1050
600
575
982
1010
652
537
990
998
650
550
932
1070
632
525
980

VIT
325
180
155
218
310
190
160
300
300
205
150
275
315
191
160
288

520
297
270
507
494
347
227
480
498
307
299
482
555
316
255
492