PPPC Chicago 2014 05 Press and Analyst Briefing

Pulp and Paper Products Council
International Pulp Week 2014

Press & Analysts Briefing
Market Pulp Review and Outlook
Emanuele Bona
Vice President, Europe
PPPC
May 6th, 2014
World Chemical Market Pulp Review

- 3 months of 2014
(based on PPPCs Global-100 database)
Global demand was down 1% in Q1/2014

World Chemical Market Pulp Demand
000s tonnes
Q1/2014:
-0.8%
5 000
March:
4 500
2014
-2.6% y-o-y
Marchwasstrongerthan
Februaryinabsolutetermsyet,
seasonallyadjusteddemandfell
1%monthovermonth
2013
4 000
PortstrikeinChile;
TruckersstrikeintheportofVancouver
3 500
J
Source: PPPC
Bulk of decline was in hardwood

World Chemical Market Pulp Demand Growth by Grade
000s tonnes and % change, 3 months 2014 vs 2013
20
0
- 20
- 40
- 60
- 80
- 100
- 120
-0.8%
Total
Source: PPPC
Bleached
Softwood
Bleached
Hardwood
UKP
Sulphite
Softwood
Decline in NBSK offset other gains

Bl. Softwood Market Pulp Demand Growth by Subgrade vs Capacity
30
20
10
0
- 10
-0.1%
- 20
Salesaffectedbytruckers
strikeinVancouver
- 30
- 40
Total
Source: PPPC
NBSK
SBSK
Radiata
Softwood sales by origin

Growth in Bl. Softwood Market Pulp Shipments by Origin
100
50
0
-0.1%
- 50
Increaseinshipments
fromRussiatoChinaas
Ilim linerampsup
- 100
Salesaffectedbytruckers
strikeinVancouver
- 150
- 200
Total
Source: PPPC
Canada
US
WE
EE
Others
Softwood capacity nearly flat in Q1

Bl. Softwood Market Pulp Demand Growth by Subgrade vs Capacity
(+) IlimBratsk
() SdraTofte;RayonierJesup
30
20
10
0
- 10
-0.1%
-0.1%
- 20
- 30
- 40
Capacity
Source: PPPC
Total
NBSK
SBSK
Radiata
Balance for softwood unchanged

Bl. Softwood Ship.-to-Cap. Ratios by Subgrade
in percent, 3 months 2014 vs 2013
2013
2014
100%
93% 93%
90%
80%
70%
60%
Total
Source: PPPC
Northern
Softwood
Southern
Softwood
Radiata
Hardwood
Only Tropical up strongly

Bl. Hardwood Market Pulp Demand Growth by Subgrade vs Capacity
250
200
NBHK+SBHKsupplydown
SappiCloquet:papergrade DP
HWSWswitchesatNAmills
150
100
50
0
- 50
- 100
-1.3%
- 150
Total
Source: PPPC
NBHK
SBHK
Eucalyptus Tropical
Harwood capacity up 2.8% in Q1

Bl. Hardwood Market Pulp Demand Growth by Subgrade vs Capacity
(+) Eldorado;SuzanoMaranho
250
2.8%
200
150
100
50
0
- 50
- 100
-1.3%
- 150
Capacity
Source: PPPC
Total
NBHK
SBHK
Eucalyptus Tropical
Hardwood balance down 4 points

Bl. Hardwood Ship.-to-Cap. Ratios by Subgrade
in percent, 3 months 2014 vs 2013
2013
2014
100%
91%
90%
87%
80%
70%
60%
50%
Total
Source: PPPC
Northern
Hardwood
Southern Eucalyptus
Other
Hardwood
Hardwood
Overall, stocks at 36 days

World Chemical Market Pulp Producer Stocks
days of supply (seasonally adj.) vs normal range*
50
40
36 days
30
20
10
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
* Days of supply, corrected for seasonality; upper and lower limits are the average level plus or
minus one standard deviation based on the last 60 data points
Source: PPPC
Analysis by Region
Mixed results by region

World Chemical Market Pulp Demand Growth by Region
150
2.4%
100
50
4.1%
2.1% 3.3%
5.8%
0
- 50
-2.1%
-2.9%
- 100
-0.8%
- 150
-3.9%
- 200
World
Source: PPPC
NA
WE
EE
LA
Japan OA/Af
Oc
China
N. America
N.A. pulp demand vs trend

N.A. Chemical Market Pulp Demand
000s tonnes
800
March: -1.4% y-o-y
Q1/2014: -2.1% y-o-y
700
Rawdata
600
Trend
500
2008
Source: PPPC
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Only Softwood down in N.A.

N.A. Demand Growth by Grade
5
-5
- 15
- 25
- 35
- 45
-2.1%
Total
Source: PPPC
Bleached
Softwood
Bleached
Hardwood
UKP
Sulphite
W. Europe
W.E. pulp demand vs trend

W.E. Chemical Market Pulp Demand
000s tonnes
1800
1600
March: -3.2% y-o-y

Q1/2014: -3.9% y-o-y
Rawdata
1400
Trend
1200
1000
2008
Source: PPPC
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
All grades down in W.E.

W.E. Demand Growth by Grade
0
- 30
- 60
- 90
- 120
- 150
-3.9%
- 180
Total
Source: PPPC
Bleached
Softwood
Bleached
Hardwood
UKP
Sulphite
China
Chinese pulp demand vs trend

Chinese Chemical Market Pulp Demand
000s tonnes
1800
March: -4.1% y-o-y

Q1/2014: +2.4% y-o-y
1600
Rawdata
1400
1200
1000
Trend
800
600
400
200
2008
Source: PPPC
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Chinese demand up 2.4% in Q1

Chinese Market Pulp Demand Growth by Grade
100
2.4%
80
60
40
20
0
- 20
- 40
Total
Source: PPPC
Bleached
Softwood
Bleached
Hardwood
UKP
Sulphite
Softwood to China up 4.1%

Chinese Softwood Demand Growth by Grade
75
4.1%
Russia+64%
W.E. +13%
Canada10%
60
45
30
15
0
- 15
- 30
Total
Source: PPPC
NBSK
SBSK
O. Softwood
Tropical from Indonesia up strongly

Chinese Hardwood Demand Growth by Grade
120
80
40
1.8%
0
- 40
- 80
- 120
Total
Source: PPPC
NBHK
SBHK
Ecualyptus
Tropical
Global Outlook
Market Pulp Supply
+2.6%/yr on average 2014-18

World Chemical Market Pulp Capacity
% growth per year
8%
AAGR 06-13
+2.4%
6%
AAGR 14-18
+2.6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
06
Source: PPPC
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14f
15f
16f
17f
18f
SW at +0.7%/yr HW at +4.1%/yr
World Chemical Market Pulp Capacity Growth by Grade
in 000s tonnes and in % change per year
3 000
Softwood
Hardwood
2 500
2 000
1 500
1 000
500
0
- 500
-1 000
12 13 14f 15f 16f 17f 18f
Source: PPPC
12 13 14f 15f 16f 17f 18f
Hardwood rising 7x Softwood

World Chemical Market Pulp Capacity
in millions of tonnes
40
Hardwood+7.0mil
35
30
25
Softwood+1.0mil
20
15
03 04 05 06 07
Source: PPPC
09 10 11 12 13 14f 15f 16f 17f 18f
Capacity growth by region 2014-2018

World Chemical Market Pulp Capacity Growth by Region
2014-2018, in 000s of tonnes and % change per year
9 000
+2.6%
7 000
Atotalof7.9mil
over5years
5 000
3 000
1 000
-1 000
Total
Source: PPPC
North
America
Western
Europe
Eastern
Europe
Latin
America
Asia
Market Pulp Demand
Growth in demand above trend in 2013

% growth per year
Beforerecessiontrend
wasatabout3.2%
8%
6%
AAGR 06-13
+2.0%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
06
Source: PPPC
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14f
15f
16f
17f
18f
+1.7%/yr on average 2014-18

% growth per year
8%
6%
AAGR 14-18
+1.7%
AAGR 06-13
+2.0%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
06
Source: PPPC
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14f
15f
16f
17f
18f
Softwood +0.7%/yr; Hardwood +2.6%/yr

Softwood and Hardwood Market Pulp Demand
in million tonnes
35
Hardwood +2.6%/yr
30
25
Softwood +0.7%/yr
20
15
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14f 15f 16f 17f 18f
Source: PPPC
China: +5.4%/yr in 2014-18

Chinese Chemical Market Pulp Demand
in 000s tonnes and % growth per year
24 000
20 000
16 000
12 000
8 000
4 000
0
06
Source: PPPC
07
08
09
10
11
12
13 14f 15f 16f 17f 18f
N.A.: -1.0%/yr in 2014-18

N. American Chemical Market Pulp Demand
change in 000s tonnes and % growth per year
1 000
750
500
250
0
- 250
- 500
- 750
-1 000
06
Source: PPPC
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14f 15f 16f 17f 18f
W. E.: -1.1%/yr in 2014-18

W. European Chemical Market Pulp Demand
change in 000s tonnes and % growth per year
1 500
1 000
500
0
- 500
-1 000
-1 500
-2 000
06
Source: PPPC
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14f 15f 16f 17f 18f
4.9 million tonnes over 5 years

World Chemical Market Pulp Demand Growth by Region
2014-2018, in 000s of tonnes and % change per year
MatureMarkets
Growth Markets
5 000
4 000
3 000
2 000
1 000
0
-1 000
-2 000
N.A.
Source: PPPC
W.E.
Japan
E.E.
L.A.
O. Asia China
Market Pulp Balance
Global Balance all grades

World Chemical Market Pulp Balance
in percent
100%
95%
90%
85%
80%
75%
07
Source: PPPC
08
09
10
11
12
13
14f
15f
16f
17f
18f
Softwood vs Hardwood
World Chemical Market Pulp Balance by Grade
in percent
100%
Softwood
Hardwood
95%
90%
85%
80%
75%
10 11 12 13 14f 15f 16f 17f 18f
Source: PPPC
10 11 12 13 14f 15f 16f 17f 18f
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PPPC Chicago 2014 05 Press and Analyst Briefing

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PPPC Chicago 2014 05 Press and Analyst Briefing

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Pulp and Paper Products Council

International Pulp Week 2014

May 6th, 2014

World Chemical Market Pulp Review

Global demand was down 1% in Q1/2014

Bulk of decline was in hardwood

Decline in NBSK offset other gains

Softwood sales by origin

Softwood capacity nearly flat in Q1

Balance for softwood unchanged

Only Tropical up strongly

Harwood capacity up 2.8% in Q1

Hardwood balance down 4 points

Overall, stocks at 36 days

Mixed results by region

N.A. pulp demand vs trend

Only Softwood down in N.A.

W.E. pulp demand vs trend

March: -3.2% y-o-y

All grades down in W.E.

Chinese pulp demand vs trend

March: -4.1% y-o-y

Chinese demand up 2.4% in Q1

Softwood to China up 4.1%

Tropical from Indonesia up strongly

Market Pulp Supply

+2.6%/yr on average 2014-18

12 13 14f 15f 16f 17f 18f

Hardwood rising 7x Softwood

09 10 11 12 13 14f 15f 16f 17f 18f

Capacity growth by region 2014-2018

Market Pulp Demand

Growth in demand above trend in 2013

+1.7%/yr on average 2014-18

Softwood +0.7%/yr; Hardwood +2.6%/yr

China: +5.4%/yr in 2014-18

13 14f 15f 16f 17f 18f

N.A.: -1.0%/yr in 2014-18

14f 15f 16f 17f 18f

W. E.: -1.1%/yr in 2014-18

14f 15f 16f 17f 18f

4.9 million tonnes over 5 years

Market Pulp Balance

Global Balance all grades

10 11 12 13 14f 15f 16f 17f 18f

Pulp and Paper Products Council

1200 McGill College Avenue

Avenue Louise, 250

Suite 2435, Level 24, Tower 3

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