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Claudio Pacati
academic year 201011
For p [0, 1] the p-th percentile of W (t) is N 1 (p) t, where N 1 is the inverse function of
the std. normal distribution function
Z x
1
2
N (x) =
eu /2 du .
2
Definition. A Brownian Motion (with drift) X(t) is the solution of an SDE with constant
drift and diffusion coefficients
dX(t) = dt + dW (t) ,
with initial value X(0) = x0 .
By direct integration
X(t) = x0 + t + W (t)
and hence X(t) is normally distributed, with mean x0 + t and variance 2 t.
Its density function is
1
2
2
f (t, x) =
e(xx0 t) /2 t
2t
Brownian Motion ( = 0.15, = 0.20 and x0 = 0). Density functions for t = 0.25, 0.5,
0.75, 1, . . . , 5.
Brownian Motion ( = 0.15, = 0.20 and x0 = 0). Plot of (t, x) 7 f (t, x).
Brownian Motion ( = 0.15, = 0.20 and x0 = 0). The mean path (red),
20 sample paths for t [0, 5] (green), 1%, 5%, 10%, 90%, 95% and 99% percentile paths
(red dashed).
5
Definition. A Geometric Brownian Motion X(t) is the solution of an SDE with linear
drift and diffusion coefficients
dX(t) = X(t) dt + X(t) dW (t) ,
with initial value X(0) = x0 .
A straightforward application of Itos lemma (to F (X) = log(X)) yields the solution
X(t) = elog x0 +t+W (t) = x0 et+W (t) ,
where
= 21 2
mean
E X(t) = x0 et ,
2
variance
var X(t) = x20 e2t e t 1 ,
density
f (t, x) =
1
2
2
e(log xlog x0 t) /2 t .
x 2t
1 (p)
t.