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Susan Williams

GEOG 588
September 2013

Lesson 4: Critical Assessment of paper by Vakalis and


colleagues
GIS provides powerful tools for mitigating emergencies. Operational models such as
the one developed by Vakalis and colleagues is an example of utilizing GIS to
estimate fire spread based on various factors (e.g., topography and slope,
vegetation type and density, meteorological conditions). This knowledge enables
emergency responders to proactively mitigate fire hazards and provides a decision
support system for evacuating affected populations and determining reasonable
distribution of resources to most effectively attack a fire in progress.
The authors recognize that many emergency management issues are spatial in
nature and wildfires stem from both static (e.g., topography) and dynamic factors
(e.g., wind direction). Therefore, this model attempts to incorporate all relevant
factors to identify potential fire behavior (Vakalis, Sarimveis, Kiranoudis,
Alexandridis, & Bafas, 2004). However, it is unclear what meteorological
conditions entailed.
One strength is the ability to model multiple factors simultaneously rather than
producing various scenarios based on singular parameters. Although information
regarding vegetation and other site-specific criteria limits usability to particular
locations, this does enhance accuracy for that specific location. Indeed, most
existing fire behavior simulators are designed for specific areas and requirements,
and are therefore insufficient for trans-continental applications. However, allowing
the flexibility of fully-customized user input regarding local wind data and landcover
classes can produce good results within an acceptable margin of error (Opperman,
2006).
The Vakalis data is derived from historical fires, thereby increasing validity for
simulations of similar conditions. It is unclear as to precisely how this data was
derived from historical observations, and also unclear regarding established validity
other than stating that the model behaved as expected and predicted (Vakalis et
al., 2004).
Theoretical models are considered unsuitable for fire simulation due to
extrapolations and assumptions that render them inaccurate and difficult to validate
(Pastor, Zarate, Planas, & Arnaldos, 2003). Semi-empirical models are slightly more
accurate and easier to validate but calculations are simplified and extrapolations of
conditions outside the tested range may not be realistic (ibid). Empirical models
endeavor to derive statistical correlations between field observations (windspeed,
temperature, etc ) and rate of fire spread and are valid only for conditions under
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which they were derived. For simulation purposes, semi-empirical and empirical
models - such as the Vakalis model - are most appropriate (Johnston, Milne, &
Klemitz, 2005). With additional data from other locales and customizable input, the
Vakalis model seems like a reliable option for identifying potential fire behavior.

References
Johnston, P., Milne, G., & Klemitz, D. (2005). Overview of bushfire spread simulation
systems. Repor t prepared for the Bushfire Cooperative Research Centre School of
Computer Science and Software Engineering, University of Western Australia.
Retrieved September 2013 at
http://www.bushfirecrc.com/managed/resource/uwa_simulators_overview.pdf
Opperman, T., Gould, J., Finney, M., & Tymstra, C. (2006). Applying fire spread
simulators in New Zealand and Australia: Results from an international seminar.
Fuels ManagementHow to Measure Success. USDA Forest Service, Rocky
Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, CO. Proceedings RMRS-P-41, 201-212.
Retrieved September 2013 at
http://www.fs.fed.us/rm/pubs/rmrs_p041/rmrs_p041_201_212.pdf
Pastor, E., Zarate, L., Planas, E., & Arnaldos, J. (2003). Mathematical models and
calculation systems for the study of wildland fire behaviour. Progress in Energy and
Combustion Science, 29(2), 139-153. Retrieved September 2013 at
http://www.floresta.ufpr.br/firelab/artigos/artigo221.pdf
Vakalis, D., Sarimveis, H., Kiranoudis, C., Alexandridis, A., & Bafas, G. (2004) A GIS
based operational system for wildland fire crisis management II. System
architecture and case studies. Applied Mathematical Modelling, Volume 28, Issue 4,
pp. 411-425. Retrieved September 2013 at
https://cms.psu.edu/section/content/Default.asp?
WCI=pgDisplay&WCU=CRSCNT&ENTRY_ID=5C8F961ED83B4AE2B48F2F7FBBC0C1A
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