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XY DNG DANH MC U T
GVHD: TS. L T CH
Nhm 14 TCDN m 1
Nguyn Th Kim Hong
L Th Ngc Mai
Nguyn Th Bch Thy
Trn Th Xun Thy
Vng Vn Thun
NI DUNG
1. Gii thiu v xy dng danh mc u t
2. Cc m hnh ng dng
L thuyt danh mc Markovitz
M hnh nh gi ti sn vn - CAPM
M hnh kinh doanh chnh lch gi - APT
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C s ca quyt nh u t
Trong u t ti chnh, mi quyt nh u t lun c
xem xt trn c s cn bng gia li tc v ri ro (riskreturn trade-off).
Li tc k vng:l li tc m nh u t k vng s
nhn c t vic u t.
Ri ro cp n s khng chc chn v li tc m
nh u t k vng nhn c t vic u t. Hay ni
cch khc, ri ro l kh nng theo li tc m nh
u t thc s nhn c khc vi li tc k vng.
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C s ca quyt nh u t
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Qu trnh u t
Qu trnh
u t
Phn tch
chng
khon
Qun tr
danh mc
u t
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Qu trnh u t
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Qu trnh u t
Qun tr danh mc u t
Qu trnh u t
Qun tr danh mc u t
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Cc m hnh ng dng
M hnh nh gi ti sn vn - CAPM
Qun tr danh
mc u t
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Cc gi nh
Cc gi nh
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M HNH CAPM
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Cc gi nh ca m hnh CAPM:
Tt c cc nh u t u l nh u t hiu qu Markowitz.
Cc nh u t c th i vay v cho vay bt k s tin no
li sut phi ri ro rf.
Tt c cc nh u t u c mong i thun nht.
Tt c cc nh u t c mt phm vi thi gian trong mt k
nh nhau. Chng hn nh 1 thng, 6 thng, 1 nm.
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Cc gi nh ca m hnh CAPM:
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Danh mc
kt hp
Mt ti sn
phi ri ro
Danh mc
ti sn
ri ro
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Danh mc kt hp
1./ T sut sinh li mong i
rp = wf * rf + (1- wf ) * ri
wf : t trng ca ti sn phi ri ro trong danh mc
ri : t sut sinh li mong i danh mc i ca cc ti sn ri
ro
2./ lch chun
p = (1- wf ) * i
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Kt hp ri ro t sut sinh li
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S dng n by ti chnh
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S dng n by ti chnh
.
i vay
CML
Cho vay
M
TSSL
Phi ri ro
lch chun
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S dng n by ti chnh
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S dng n by ti chnh
Danh mc m ti im m ng thng ni t rf
tip xc vi ng hiu qu l danh mc tt nht
trn tp hp hiu qu i vi tt c nhng ai nm
gi n.
Lc ny tp hp hiu qu tr thnh ng thng i
t rf qua danh mc M.
ng thng ny c xem nh l tp hp hiu qu
ca tt c TS ri ro v phi ri ro ( CML: ng th
trng vn)
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M HNH CAPM
Hnh: mi quan h gia ri ro t sut sinh li vi
bin hip phng sai h thng l thc o ri ro
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M HNH CAPM
Ta c: hip phng sai ca th trng vi chnh n l
phng sai ca t sut sinh li th trng COVM,M = 2M
Nh vy, phng sai ca ng ri ro t sut sinh li l:
R = rf + x (rM - rf)
Vi:
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M HNH CAPM
thc o tiu chun ha ca ri ro h thng
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M HNH CAPM
Xc nh ti sn b nh gi thp v nh gi cao
M HNH CAPM
Xc nh ti sn b nh gi thp v nh gi cao
M HNH APT
1. M hnh mt nhn t
2. M hnh a nhn t
3. Beta nhn t
4. M hnh nhn t v danh mc m phng
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M HNH APT
Thp nin nm 1970 S.A Ross trin khai mt m hnh
ni ting gi l kinh doanh chch lch gi (APT) bng
cch s dng cc yu t a ri ro gii thch t sut sinh li
ca chng khon.
Theo APT th beta v t sut sinh li ca chng khon c
lin h cht ch vi cc bin i trong cc nhn t kinh t
v m
Cc m hnh nhn t khng ch din t mc nh hng
n s thay i cc nhn t kinh t v m i vi TSSL
ca chng khon m cn a ra d bo v TSSL mong
i ca nh u t
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M HNH APT
M hnh mt nhn t
M hnh mt nhn t din t t sut sinh li ca chng khon i
(ri) chu s tc ng ca mt nhn t (F). Nhn t (F) c
xem l nhn t th trng v nh u t khng th a dng ho
M hnh c biu din di dng:
ri = i + iF + i
Trong :
M HNH APT
M hnh a nhn t :
M hnh din t t sut sinh li ca chng khon i (r i) c hp
thnh bi nhiu nhn t Fj, gi l nhn t ph bin (commom
factor), cc chng khon khc nhau c cc nhy cm khc nhau
c th hin qua cc beta
M hnh c biu din di dng:
ri = i + i1F1 + i2F2 + + ikFk + i
Trong : i : TSSL mong i ca chng khon i.
Fj (j = 1, k ) : nhn t v m.
ij: h s nhy cm ca chng khon i i vi nhn t v
m th j.
i : nhn t c trng ca chng khon
i
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M HNH APT
c lng cc nhn t: c ba phng php:
1. S dng phng php thng k nh phn tch nhn t xc
nh danh mc nhn t (factor portfolio), l cc danh mc
chng khon c xy dng sao cho c th m phng cc
nhn t.
2. S dng cc bin kinh t v m, v d nh s thay i li sut
v nhng thay i trong din bin kinh t v m nh l nhng
ch bo cho cc nhn t
3. S dng nhng c th ring ca cng ty c nh hng n
cc mc t sut sinh li cao hn hoc thp hn to ra cc
danh mc nh l cc ch bo cho cc nhn t.
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M HNH APT
Cc beta () nhn t
Cc h s ca mt danh mc i vi mt nhn t no
chnh l bnh qun gia quyn ca cc chng khon ring l i
vi nhn t .
Cho m hnh K nhn t cho mi c phiu i v mt danh mc u
t c N chng khon vi t trng u t c gi tr l xi cho c
phiu i th TSSL mong i ca danh mc u t:
r p = x 1 r 1 + x 2 r2 + + x N r N
th phng trnh nhn t nh sau:
rp = p + p1F1 + p2F2 + + pkFk + p
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M HNH APT
Trong :
p = x1 1 + x 2 2 + + x N N
p1 = x111 + x221 + + xNN1
p2 = x112 + x222 + + xNN2
.
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M HNH APT
Dng m hnh nhn t tnh Cov v Var
Tnh Cov t beta nhn t trong mt m hnh a nhn t:
Gi s c K nhn t tc ng ln TSSL ca chng khon i v j
ri = i + i1F1+ i2F2 + iKFK + i
rj = j + j1F1+ j2F2 + jKFK + j
th hip phng sai s c tnh:
Cov(ri;rj) = i1j1var(F1) + + iKjKvar(FK)
Cov(ri;rj) =
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M HNH APT
Dng m hnh nhn t tnh Var:
1. i vi m hnh mt nhn t:
Ging nh m hnh th trng, cc m hnh nhn t cung cp
mt phng php phn tch Var ca chng khon thnh hai
thnh phn: khng th a dng ha v c th a dng ha.
ri = i + iF + i
var (ri) = i2 var (F) + var (i)
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M HNH APT
2. i vi m hnh a nhn t:
Khi k nhn t khng tng quan, chng khon i c m
phng bi m hnh nhn t:
ri = i + i1F1 + i2F2 + + iKFK + i
th var (ri) c th phn tch thnh tng ca (K+1) thnh phn:
var (ri) = 2i1 var (F1) + + 2ik var (FK) + var (i)
2i1 var (F1) + + 2ik var (FK): phn nh ri ro nhn t
var (i): phn nh RR c th ca cng ty
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M HNH APT
M hnh nhn t v danh mc m phng:
thit lp danh mc u t m phng, tin hnh cc bc sau:
1. Xc nh s lng nhn t lin quan.
2. Xc nh cc nhn t v tnh cc nhn t.
3. K n, thit lp mt phng trnh cho mi nhn t. V tri
phng trnh l nhn t ca danh mc m phng, bn phi phng
trnh l nhn t mc tiu
4. Sau gii phng trnh tm t trng danh mc m phng, tng
cc t trng phi bng 1
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M HNH APT
V d xy dng danh mc u t m phng:
Cho m hnh k nhn t. Ta s lp mt DMT m phng c cc mc tiu ln
lt l: 1, 2,. k.
Gi s DMT m phng c n chng khon, mi chng khon c phng
trnh:
ri = i + i1F1 + i2F2 + + ikFk + i
Gi xi l t trng ca chng khon i trong DMT (i =1,n).
Ta c:
1 = x111 + x221 + + xnn1
2 = x112 + x222 + + xnn2
.
k = x11k + x22k + + xnnk
x1
+ x2
+ + xn = 1
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M HNH APT
Gii h phng trnh trn tm cc gi tr x1, x2, , xn ,
chng ta c th thit lp DMT m phng
Lu : Trong m hnh k nhn t, lp c cc DMT vi
cu trc xc nh, ngi ta cn c (k + 1) chng khon
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M HNH APT
Danh mc nhn t thun nht:
Danh mc nhn t thun nht l nhng danh mc c h s nhy
cm i vi mt trong cc nhn t l 1, i vi cc nhn t khc
cn li, danh mc c h s u bng 0, danh mc nh vy
khng c cc RR c th ca cng ty.
V d: C 3 loi chng khon C, G, S vi cc phng trnh:
rC = 0,08 + 2F1 + 3F2
rG = 0,1 + 3F1 + 2F2
rS = 0,1 + 3F1 + 5F2
Yu cu: Thit lp 2 danh mc nhn t thun nht i vi cc
nhn t F1, F2
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M HNH APT
thit lp danh mc nhn t ch chu nh hng bi F 1, ta cn tm cc t trng xC,
xG, xS tha:
2xC + 3xG + 3xS = 1
h s nhy cm ca danh mc ny i vi F2 l 0, cc t trng phi tha:
3xC + 2xG + 5xS = 0
ng thi:
xC + x G + x S = 1
Ta c h phng trnh:
2xC + 3xG + 3xS =
3xC +
2xG +
5xS =
xC +
xG +
xS =
Kt qu l:
xC = 2;
xG = 1/3;
xS = -4/3.
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M HNH APT
thit lp danh mc nhn t th hai, tng t, gii h
phng trnh:
2xC + 3xG + 3xS = 0
3xC + 2xG + 5xS = 1
xC +
Kt qu l:
xG +
xS = 1
xC = 3;
xG = -2/3;
xS = -4/3
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M HNH APT
Nhn xt:
M hnh nhn t chia TSSL ca chng khon thnh hai thnh
phn:
1. Mt tp hp cc thnh phn c tng quan ln nhau trong
s cc chng khon gi l nhn t ph bin, chnh l:
nhng bin s th hin cc iu kin kinh t v m c bn
2. Thnh phn to ra cc c th cho cng ty v khng c mi
tng quan ln nhau trong s cc chng khon th hin
nhng thng tin ca cng ty
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M HNH APT
Ri ro c th ca cng ty, nhng khng phi l ri ro nhn t, s
c trit tiu hon ton bng cch nm gi mt danh mc a
dng ho tt.
Bng cch la chn t trng ca danh mc mt cch hp l, c
th thit lp mt chui danh mc vi bt k beta nhn t theo mu
hnh d kin.
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LOGO
Thank You !
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