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Group 5

Sumit kumar
Joshi Girija Prashant
Raja shekhar Reddy V
Shashank Kumar
Shivam Mehta
Gaurav Kumar

M063/14
M030/14
M048/14
M054/14
M056/14
M026/14

The University Book Store student computer purchase program


Trend Projection and forecasting of sales for year 15 using Linear regression with
double exponential smoothing
Compute
Year rs Sold
Level
Trend
Forecast Residual
0
616.49
26.91
1
518
624.11
26.61
643.40
-125.40 15725.16 125.40
2
651
650.76
26.61
650.72
0.28
0.08
0.28
3
708
682.08
26.68
677.37
30.63
938.24
30.63
4
921
741.42
27.18
708.76
212.24 45044.27 212.24
5
775
769.58
27.20
768.60
6.40
40.97
6.40
6
810
798.82
27.23
796.78
13.22
174.67
13.22
7
856
830.66
27.30
826.05
29.95
897.15
29.95
8
792
847.81
27.15
857.96
-65.96
4350.34
65.96
9
877
875.27
27.15
874.96
2.04
4.18
2.04
10
693
870.20
26.65
902.42
-209.42 43856.77 209.42
11
841
888.26
26.52
896.86
-55.86
3119.91
55.86
12
1009
929.28
26.75
914.79
94.21
8876.41
94.21
13
902
947.71
26.62
956.03
-54.03
2918.73
54.03
14
1103
994.13
26.92
974.33
128.67 16555.67 128.67
1021.05
142502.55 1028.31
MSE
10178.75
73.45
RMSE
100.89
Upper Limit
Lower Limit

Plot of computer sold y-o-y

f(x) = 26.9054945055x + 616.4945054945

1218.79
823.30

Alpha
Gamma

0.153846
0.015385

Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.754853
R Square
0.569804
Adjusted R Square
0.533954
Standard Error
101.7916
Observations
14
ANOVA
df

MAD

Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
X Variable 1

SS
MS
1 164688.5318681 164688.5
12 124338.3252747 10361.53
13 289026.8571429

Coefficients Standard Error


t Stat
616.4945 57.4632501845 10.7285
26.90549
6.7487164775 3.986757

F
Significance F
15.89423 0.001804

P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%


1.67E-007 491.2928 741.6962
0.001804 12.2013 41.60968

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