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I.Q.

Lesson 2

PROBABILITY

What is probability

Quite simply, probability is the likelihood of an event


occuring.
e.g. The probability a 3 is rolled on a six sided die

There are six possible outcomes: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and


6

Each possibility is as equally possible as the


other

Therefore, the chance of getting a 3 (or any


other number) is 1/6

Or roughly16.67%

Independence

Each time we role a die, the chance of getting


any of the 6 numbers never changes: it's
always 1/6. This is called independence
Rolling a 6 is not more or less likely than
rolling a 1, and rolling a the same three times
in a row, is also not more or less likely than
rolling three different numbers in a row

Consecutive Probability

When an outcome like rolling a specific number on a die is


independent, we can determine the probability of getting the
same outcome a certain number of times in a row by
multiplying the probabilities together.
Since rolling a die is independent, we just need to multiply 1/6
by however many times we roll.
If I want a six twice in a row:

The first roll = 1/6 of getting a six

The second roll = 1/6 of getting a six

Two in a row: 1/6*1/6=1/36

Consecutive Probability cont.

Since rolling any number on a die is as equally


likely as any other number, the probability of
rolling any two numbers in a row is the same
Note that rolling any number is 100%.
consecutive probability is to determine rolling
specific numbers in a row

Or more generally, for determining specific


outcomes

Dependence

Often outcomes are not independent. If we


have a bag of 4 marbles: 2 blue and 2 red,
and I want to pick 1 of each color in a row at
random, the second marble chosen has a
different probability than the first because one
marble has been picked already.
Think about it like rolling a die, except every
time you roll a number, you can't roll that
number again

Dependence cont.

Consider the marbles again. Recall that we


have 2 blue, and 2 red, and we want one of
each colour, but cannot see inside the bag.
There are 2 blue marbles, out of a total of 4
marbles, so the probability of getting a blue is
2/4. Since there are just as many red, they
both have the same probability: 2/4 (or 1/2)
BUT! We need to pick a second, and once we
pick a marble, there are only 3 left.

Dependence cont.

If we picked a red marble first, then there are


2 blue left, and 1 red. Since we already picked
a red, we want a blue. With 2 blue, and 3 total,
our probability is 2/3

Note that if we picked a blue first, the


probability is the same, only the colours are
reversed.

For dependent probabilities, the formula is the


same:

Multiply the outcomes: 2/4 * 2/3 = 4/12 or 1/3

Tree Diagram

We can illustrate how this probability works by


using what's called a tree diagram:

Tree Diagram cont.

We can extend a tree diagram as far as we


need to, for every probability that exists in a
set of outcomes.
We can also use a tree diagram for any kind of
probability:

Probability of passing a course after several


attempts.

Probability of getting heads or tails flipping a


coin

Proportion

So far we have shown probability as a fraction,


but we can also display it as a decimal:

Decimals can also be shown as a percentage:

1/4 = 0.25
0.25*100 = 25%

These three expressions (fractions, decimals,


and percentages) are called proportions.

Proportion cont.

If we have a probability of 1/6 to roll a 6 on a die, if


we rolled it 6 times, we can expect one roll to be a 6.

If we tried this, and got one 6 in six rolls, we can say


that the proportion of rolls that are 6, is 1/6:

We call each roll or attempt a trial

One roll out of six was a six

Therefore, probability = proportion

Probability states the likelihood of a particular


outcome

Proportion states a particular outcome in a set of


trials

Credits

Alex Marion

Writer, editor, designer.

All content contained here within is the


property of the above noted writer(s), and is
not to be replicated or distributed without
written permission.

Conclusion

IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER:

Probability is the same as proportion!

This is an important concept we will apply


throughout our discussion of hypothesis test
statistics
Everything we do for hypothesis testing is
simply determining the probability of an
outcome!

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