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Tng cng ty Hng Khng Vit Nam c c phn ha theo hnh thc gi nguyn phn vn nh
nc, pht hnh thm c phiu tng vn iu l. Theo , vn iu l sau khi c phn ha l
14.102 t ng, trong Nh nc nm gi 75% do B Giao thng vn ti lm i din ch s hu.
Cng ty s thc hin pht hnh thm 25% cho 4 i tng: (1) nh u t tham gia u gi c phn
c t chc vo ngy 14/11/2014; (2) nh u t chin lc nc ngoi l tp on, hng hng
khng nc ngoi hoc l nh u t ti chnh nc ngoi v c tin hnh song song vi qu
trnh trin khai IPO trong nc; (3) Bn u i cho cn b cng nhn vin; (4) bn u i cho t chc
cng on.
T l
(%)
S c phn
(c phiu)
Nh nc
75,00%
1.057.638.000
10.576.638
25,00%
352.546.000
3.525.546
3,48%
49.009.008
490.009
20,00%
282.036.800
2.820.036
C ng
Gi tr
(triu ng)
Gi bn
Trong
-
CP u gi cng khai
CP bn cho NT chin lc
0,80%
11.320.600
113.320
0,67%
9.474.500
94.745
Cng on
0,05%
705.092
7.051
100%
1.410.184.000
14.101.840
Vn iu l sau CPH
Theo quyt nh s 1611/Q-TTg ngy 10/09/2014 v ph duyt Phng n C phn ha Tng Cng
ty Hng khng Vit Nam, Cng ty s c qun l v s dng s tin thng d thu t c phn ha.
Phn tin ny s c dng gp b sung phn vn Nh nc khi Cng ty tng vn iu l v duy
tr mc s hu nh nc ti thiu 65% vn iu l.
im nhn u t.
(1) Vietnam Airlines l doanh nghip chim th phn chi phi trn th trng hng khng Vit
Nam.
V th chi phi ca Vietnam Airlines c hnh thnh da trn cc yu t:
-
Ri ro cn lu
(1) H tng k thut cng hng khng cn yu gy hn ch cho vic pht trin i bay.
(2) Hiu qu hot ng ph thuc nhiu vo gi nguyn liu.
(3) Cnh tranh ngy cng tng
22.5%
40.6%
52.0%
14.3%
63.2%
3.8%
3.6%
Vietnam Airlines
Thai Airways
Vietnam Airlines
Singapore Airlines
Khc
Vietjet Air
Jetstar Pacific
Hin nay, th trng hng khng ni a ang c khai thc bi 3 hng hng khng Vietnam Airlines,
Jetstar Pacific (cng ty con ca Vietnam Airlines nm gi 67,83%) v Vietjet Air, Vietnam Airlines ang l
n v s hu mt mng ng bay mnh nht ph khp cc vng min l nhng im du lch ni ting ca
Vit Nam v nhng vng kinh t pht trin. Cc ng bay c khai thc vi tn sut cao, cc chuyn bay
tri u trong ngy. Nm 2013, Vietnam Airlines chim 63% th phn vn chuyn hnh khch ni a, k n
l cng ty Vietjet Air vi 23%.
S lng ng bay v im n ca cc hng hng khng ni a
Vietnam Airlines
Vietjet Air
Jetstar Pacific
ng bay
39
19
18
im n
21
13
10
Ngun: BVSC tng hp
Ngoi ra, Vietnam Airlines cng ang l doanh nghip c th phn chi phi i vi mng ng bay quc t
i/n Vit Nam. Trong hn 20 hng my bay c ng bay n Vit Nam, Vietnam Airlines ang c th
mnh cc ng bay quc t Vit Nam vi khu vc ng Bc (Nht Bn, Hn Quc, Trung Quc, i
Loan), Chu u (Php, c, Anh, Nga) v ng bay tiu vng Campuchia Lo Myamma. Cc nc
ng Bc l cc quc gia c kim ngch giao thng ln nht vi Vit Nam ng gp 43% kim ngch xut
nhp khu ca c nc, ng thi cng l th trng chim 48% tng s lng khch du lch quc t n
Vit Nam, do s hu ng bay Vit Nam ti cc khu vc ny ang l th mnh ca Vietnam Airlines.
i vi ng bay tiu vng Campuchia Lo Myamma, nh v tr ca ng khu vc nn Vit Nam c li
th v pht trin du lch lin kt vng cng nh tim nng pht trin kinh t ca khu vc nht l ti Myanma
thu ht nhiu lt khch s dng cc ng bay ca Vietnam Airlines ti tiu vng Campuchia Lo
Myanma.
Lng khch quc t n Vit Nam v kim ngch giao thng
ca cc th trng c ng bay ca VNA
Lng khch quc t n VN
S lng (lt)
ng Bc
T trng (%)
T trng (%)
3,659,561
48.3%
114,372
43.3%
790,408
10.4%
17,930
6.8%
Th trng khc
3,122,383
41.2%
131,763
49.9%
Tng cng
7,572,352
100%
264,065
49.9%
Chu u
c bit, Vietnam Airlines ang c li th t vic s hu cc slot (thi gian n v i t mt sn bay ginh
cho mt my bay vo mt ngy gi nht nh) ti cc sn bay Vit Nam v cc sn bay quc t. Vietnam
Airlines ang s hu khong 400 slot ti cc sn bay quc t trong c Bc Kinh, Tokyo, Php, Hong Kong
l cc sn bay nm trong top 10 cc sn bay c mt khai thc cao. i vi cc slot ti sn bay ni a, tuy
khng cn quyn iu phi slot ti sn bay Tn Sn Nht v Ni Bi nhng vi lng ln cc slot hin nay
m Vietnam Airlines ang s hu cng l li th quan trng Cng ty c th m phn trao i slot vi cc
hng hng khng khc khi c nhu cu tng tn sut bay hoc m cc tuyn bay mi.
Mng li kinh doanh v h thng phn phi c tm bao ph rng. H thng kinh doanh bn hng
ca Vietnam Airlines bao gm cc knh: (1) cc phng v, chi nhnh ca Vietnam Airlines trong v ngoi
nc; (2) Bn v trc tuyn t trang web ca Vietnam Airlines; (3) bn gin tip qua cc i l, tng i
l c Vietnam Airlines ch nh v cc cng ty du lch ti cc th trng. Trong , knh bn hng cho
cc i l vi kh nng bao ph rng v gip cho Hng c kh nng phc v cho nhiu i tng khch
hng ang l mt knh bn hng quan trng nht ng gp n 90% doanh thu bn v ca Vietnam
Airlines. Knh bn hng trc tuyn ng gp khong 6,3% tng doanh thu, tuy t trng ng gp cn nh
nhng knh bn ny c u im l kh nng tip cn khch hng tt v gim c chi ph bn hng ng
thi s c xu hng tng ln trong thi gian ti cng vi s pht trin ca cng ngh thng tin. Mc tiu
ca Vietnam Airlines s tng doanh thu bn v t knh bn hng trc tip thng qua website v in thoi
s ng gp khong 15% tng doanh thu vo nm 2018.
4
H thng h tng k thut phc v bay v c s phc v mt t hon chnh. phc v cho hot
ng vn ti hng khng, Vietnam Airlines kt np v thnh lp cc cng ty con v thnh vin to
thnh mt chui gi tr h tr cho cho hot ng bay v cc dch v hng khng. Vi 14 n vi trc
thuc, 18 cng ty con v 08 cng ty lin kt, cc thnh vin ny khng ch cung cp cc sn phm dch
v cho hot ng ca Vietnam Airlines m cn phc v cho cc hng hng khng ni a v nc ngoi
hot ng ti cc sn bay Vit Nam. Trong , c mt s cng ty con ca Vietnam Airlines cung cp cc
sn phm dch v c th cho ngnh hng khng v chim th phn chi phi, ng k n l VINAPCO
(cng ty cung cp nhin liu hng khng Jet A-1 ti Vit Nam, chim 90% th phn) v VAECO (cng ty
duy nht ti Vit Nam cung cp cc dch v k thut bo dng my bay).
Chi ph nguyn liu chim khong 37% - 38% trong chi ph ca hot ng kinh doanh vn ti hng khng 3
nm gn y, trong phn ln l chi ph cho nguyn liu xng Jet A-1 do bin ng gi du m trn
th gii s c tc ng ng k n chi ph nguyn liu ca Cng ty. hn ch cc tc ng ca bin
ng gi nguyn liu, Vietnam Airlines thc hin mt s bin php nh s dng cng c bo him gi
nguyn liu, p dng chnh sch ph thu gi v khi gi nguyn liu tng cao, gim chi ph nguyn liu bng
cch i mi i tu bay v phi hp vi IATA trin khai thc hin chng trnh bay tit kim. Cc bin
php ny k vng s l yu t chnh ci thin hot ng ca Vietnam Airlines thi gian ti. Ngoi ra, trong
ngn hn Cng ty cn c h tr bi xu hng gim ca gi du m, s gip cho li nhun ca 6 thng
cui nm tch cc hn na u nm 2014.
Chi ph dch v mua ngoi l nhm c t trng ln nht khong 42% - 43% tng chi ph trong 3 nm 2011
2013. Chi ph thu my bay, mua v thu chuyn/ti/ch l loi chi ph ln nht trong chi ph dch v
mua ngoi. Do nhu cu pht trin mng ng bay, Vietnam Airlines tng thu thm my bay v ng
thi cc khon ph ny c thanh ton bng ngoi t do cng tc ng lm tng chi ph dch v mua
ngoi trong thi gian qua. Sp ti, nhu cu thu thm phng tin bay pht trin mng ng bay s
tip tc lm tng chi ph dch v mua ngoi nhng chng ti cho rng iu ny s thc y tng trng
doanh thu tt hn.
Chi ph ti chnh chim mt t trng khng cao trong c cu chi ph khong t 4% - 5,5% nhng l
khon mc c mc bin ng ln trong 3 nm qua. Cui nm 2013, n vay ngn v di hn chim
khong 63% tng ti sn ca Cng ty m trong a s l vay di hn. Nh c nh nc bo lnh
nn Vietnam Airlines lun c c li sut vay kh thp khong 6,2% cho VND, bnh qun 4,6% cho
khon vay bng USD v 2,1% cho khon vay EUR. V v phn ln cc khon vay l bng ngoi t nn
Cng ty phi chu tc ng mnh t thay i t gi. Xu hng sp ti, d n vay s tip tc tng ti
tr cho cc d n u t c bn ca Vietnam Airlines v li sut c xu hng i ln vi cc khon vay
ngoi t kt hp cng t gi tng, chi ph ti chnh s tip tc bin ng tng trong thi gian ti.
C cu chi ph sn xut theo yu t
1%
0%
Chi ph nguyn vt liu
5%
43%
7%
Chi ph ti chnh
Chi ph khc
Ngun:Vietnam Airlines
6
Chnh do s bin ng ca 3 nhm chi ph ny nn li nhun t hot ng kinh doanh chnh ca cng ty m
b l nhng nh b p bng li nhun khc nn Cng ty m vn ghi nhn li nhun dng kh khim tn
trong 3 nm qua. T c th thy li nhun hp nht ca Vietnam Airlines ang c ng gp chnh t
kt qu kinh doanh ca cc Cng ty con. Trong s 18 cng ty con ca Vietnam Airlines ch c hai cng ty l
Hng hng khng Campuchia Angkor Air v Jetstar Pacific Airlines l trong nm 2013, cc cng ty cn li
u hot ng c li nhun c bit cc cng ty cung cp sut n hng khng v dch v giao nhn hng
ha c t sut li nhun rng v hiu qu li nhun trn vn rt cao.
Cc cng ty con ca Vietnam Airlines c hiu qu hot ng cao
Vn
iu
l
CT TNHH Giao nhn hng ha
%
VNA
Doanh
thu
LNST
Bin
LNST
ROE
VINAKO
t ng
65%
102
14.6
14.4%
58.6%
NCS
t ng
50
60%
379
31.6
8.3%
28.1%
VACS
triu USD
100%
26
4.3
16.8%
61.0%
NCTS
t ng
96
55%
575
247.5
43.1%
86.0%
TCS
t ng
94
55%
441
131.8
29.9%
59.0%
Ngun: VNA
Nhn chung, do hot ng chnh khng hiu qu nn kt qu hp nht ca Vietnam Airlines cng khng cao.
So snh vi cc hng hng khng khc trong khu vc Chu , quy m doanh thu ca Vietnam Airlines cn
kh nh v hiu qu cng mc thp. Tuy nhin, chng ti nh gi sau khi c phn ha, cc bin php
tng doanh thu bng cch pht trin mng ng bay, tng cng hp tc vi lin minh Skyteam v cc
bin php gim chi ph trong quan trng nht l gim chi ph nhin liu bay, th hiu qu hot ng ca
Vietnam Airlines s ci thin tt hn.
EBIT/
Doanh thu
EBITDA/
Doanh thu
Singapore Airlines
4.60
15.57
2.71
1.58
1.08
37.47
Air China
7.20
18.14
10.77
2.87
6.19
97.25
4.60
11.38
5.31
2.04
6.96
167.01
Korean Airlines
2.03
14.33
(2.41)
(0.31)
0.83
(11.10)
(0.47)
10.21
(2.47)
(0.56)
34.62
(1,347.84)
Eva Airways
2.32
11.39
1.47
0.35
47.45
2,258.88
Thai Airways
3.99
14.00
(8.13)
(1.79)
18.22
(80.62)
Asiana Airlines
3.08
7.86
(2.96)
(0.41)
0.85
(6.88)
4.08
12.95
17.05
2.86
7.56
81.46
4.09
12.95
10.43
2.49
4.45
79.00
2.69
6.77
7.21
2.92
0.88
88.33
(7.83)
(3.18)
(78.90)
(9.70)
22.55
(37.74)
Trung bnh
3.76
13.17
3.41
1.22
8.75
68.61
Vietnam Airlines
1.81
6.20
2.24
0.34
1.97
78.52
China Airlines
Malaysia Airlines
ROE
ROA
PB
PE
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
t ng
59,009
67,496
81,246
95,017
109,532
Li nhun gp
t ng
6,449
8,194
11,549
14,090
15,479
t ng
341
1,132
2,561
3,716
3,894
N ngn hn
t ng
21,240
24,688
25,527
27,142
30,812
N di hn
t ng
30,154
42,672
47,660
50,443
50,399
Vn ch s hu
t ng
14,394
15,366
21,932
24,437
26,576
Tng ngun vn
t ng
65,788
82,726
95,119
102,022
107,787
10.93%
12.14%
14.21%
14.83%
14.13%
0.58%
1.68%
3.15%
3.91%
3.56%
2.37%
7.37%
11.68%
15.21%
14.65%
PE
92.22
27.78
12.28
8.46
8.08
PB
2.18
2.05
1.43
1.29
1.18
K hoch ngun vn
Hiu qu hot ng
T sut li nhun gp
Ch tiu nh gi
Ngun: VNA
2016
H Ni - c (Melbourne, Sydney)
Min trung (VN) - ng Bc
im n mi
Berlin (c)
2015
Denpasar (Indonesia)
2015
Manila (Phillipines)
2015
Brisbane (c)
2017
Adelaide (c)
2018
2017
Doha (Qatar)
2018
Bombay (n )
2015
Dehli (n )
2015
2 chuyn/ngy/ng bay
ng bay ng Nam
2 chuyn/ngy/ng bay
Ngun: VNA
Nhm phc v cho mc tiu pht trin mng bay, Vietnam Airlines s tip tc u t tng cng s lng
v tr ha i tu bay. So vi cc hng hng khng ni a, Vietnam Airlines l hng c i tu bay mnh
nht hin nay vi tng s lng 83 chic c tui trung bnh 5.34 nm, trong s hu v thu ti chnh l 46
chic v 37 chic l thu khai thc. Tuy nhin, so vi cc hng hng khng truyn thng trong khu vc, i
tu bay ca Vietnam Airlines mc trung bnh v s lng tu bay nhng c tui trung bnh kh tr.
479
6.30
357
6.30
Air China
317
6.10
Korean Airlines
152
9.30
142
8.10
Garuda Indonesia
136
5.40
Singapo Airlines
105
7.00
Malaysia Airlines
98
4.50
Thai Airways
97
11.00
Vietnam Airlines
83
5.34
China Airlines
81
10.20
Eva Airways
65
9.50
Phillippin Airlines
50
4.30
Lao Airlines
10
3.20
Ngun: BVSC tng hp
Trong thi gian ti Vietnam Airlines s y mnh u t hin i ha i bay. Giai on 2014 2018, Cng
ty s u t 63.297 t ng pht trin i bay (chim 90% tng u t trong giai on trn). u t i
bay tp trung vo 4 d n:
Ngoi ra, cng ty tip tc thu khai thc pht trin i bay mc tiu n 2018, Vietnam Airlines s c i
bay 116 chic vi nhiu chng loi my bay mi c kh nng bay tm xa, tm trung v tm ngn ph hp
vi vic pht trin mng ng bay ca Vietnam Airlines. V vi i hnh my bay mi c kh nng tit kim
nhin liu c ngha rt quan trng ci thin hiu qu hot ng ca Vietnam Airlines.
K hoch pht trin i tu bay ca Vietnam Airlines
Tng
s
2013
2015
2016
2017
2018
Tng
s
2018
280 - 300 gh
19
-1
38
150 - 180 gh
48
64
A321, A320
70 gh
16
-2
14
ATR 72
Tng s
83
-1
11
116
Ngun: VNA
10
Cc ri ro cn lu
i vi hot ng kinh doanh ca Vit Nam Airlines bn cnh nhng ri ro khch quan nh h tng cng
hng khng cn yu gy hn ch cho vic pht trin i bay v mng ng bay; hay cc ri ro c th
ngnh nh bin ng gi nguyn liu v bin ng t gi, Vietnam Airlines cn phi i mt vi nhng ri ro
ng ch nh:
Cnh tranh ngy cng tng
Xu hng hi nhp v chnh sch m ca nn kinh t ang to iu kin cho nhiu hng hng khng t
nhn v lin doanh hnh thnh v pht trin th trng Vit Nam. Bn cnh , s pht trin nhanh ca m
hnh hng khng gi r cng ang e da th phn ca cc hng hng khng truyn thng.
11
Nhn nh ca BVSC
Nm 2014, Vietnam Airlines (cng ty m) t k hoch doanh thu l 55.835 t ng v li nhun sau
thu khong 335 t ng, ln lt tng 6,4% v 127% so vi 2013. Tuy nhin, nhn vo kt qu kinh
doanh 6 thng/2014, li nhun sau thu cng ty m ch t khong 108 t ng, mc tiu li nhun 335
t ng s kh t c cho d 6 thng cui nm Vietnam Airlines c thun li khi gi nhin liu gim.
Ti mc gi khi im 22.300 ng/CP, Vietnam Airlines ang c P/B v P/E ln lt l 1,97x v 78,52x.
So vi bnh qun khu vc PE ca Vietnam Airlines kh cao tuy nhin P/B thp so vi bnh qun PB ca
khu vc l 8,75x. Vi nhng li th hin c ca Vietnam Airlines nh chng ti nh gi trn, mc PE
v PB hin ti s c ci thin nhiu trong tng lai, do chng ti nh gi c phiu ca Vietnam
Airlines s mt khon u t ph hp cho mc tiu u t di hn khong 3 5 nm. Mt im cn lu
i vi c phiu ca Cng ty l t l s hu ca Nh nc sau c phn ha vn cn kh cao (n nm
2018 nh nc vn nm gi 65%) v s lng c phiu t do chuyn nhng cng mc thp s nh
hng ti tnh thanh khon ca c phiu.
12
KHUYN CO S DNG
Tt c nhng thng tin nu trong bo co ny c xem xt cn trng v c cho l ng tin cy nht, tuy nhin
Cng ty C phn Chng khon Bo Vit (BVSC) khng m bo tuyt i tnh chnh xc v y ca nhng thng tin
nu trn. Cc quan im, nhn nh, nh gi trong bo co ny l quan im c nhn ca cc chuyn vin phn tch ti
thi im vit bo co v c th thay i bt c lc no. Do , chng ti khng c trch nhim phi thng bo cho nh
u t.
Bo co ch nhm mc tiu cung cp thng tin m khng hm cho bn, li ko, khuyn ngui c mua, bn hay nm
gi chng khon. Nh u t ch nn s dng bo co phn tch ny nh mt ngun thng tin tham kho.
BVSC c th c nhng hot ng hp tc kinh doanh, tham gia u t hoc thc hin cc nghip v ngn hng u t
vi i tng c cp n trong bo co ny. Ngi c cn lu rng BVSC c th c nhng xung t li ch i
vi cc nh u t khi thc hin bo co phn tch ny.