Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
Forecast
Federal Aviation
Administration
Agenda
2005 Review
Assumptions
Forecast Overview
Federal Aviation
Administration
Review of 2005
Traffic growth strong
RPMs up 8.0%
Domestic +6.9%, International + 11.6%
Passengers up 7.1%
Domestic +6.6%, International + 12.1%
Workload Growth
En-Route Traffic up 2.8%
Commercial + 3.7%, Non Commercial + 0.3%
Federal Aviation
Administration
Assumptions 2006-17
External Environment
Economic growth about 3% per year
Higher Oil Prices in near term
Industry
Domestic capacity shrinks in FY 2006
DL and NW in bankruptcy shrink 10% to 20%
AA, US announced reductions
Federal Aviation
Administration
Federal Aviation
Administration
Federal Aviation
Administration
Federal Aviation
Administration
Federal Aviation
Administration
Federal Aviation
Administration
System Enplanements
Actual
2005-2006:
0.3%
2006-2007:
3.9%
2007-2017:
3.4%
Forecast
Federal Aviation
Administration
10
System Enplanements
Actual
Forecast
2.5%
Regional Domestic:
4.2%
International:
5.0%
Federal Aviation
Administration
11
2005-2006:
1.5%
2006-2007:
4.8%
2007-2017:
4.3%
Forecast
Federal Aviation
Administration
12
Forecast
3.1%
Regional Domestic:
6.7%
International:
5.5%
Federal Aviation
Administration
13
2005-2006:
0.5 Points
2006-2007:
0.2 Points
2007-2017:
0.1 Points
Forecast
Federal Aviation
Administration
14
2005-2006:
-1.4 Seats
2006-2007:
-0.6 Seats
2007-2017:
0.1 Seats
Forecast
Federal Aviation
Administration
15
2005-2006:
0.4%
2006-2007:
-1.0%
2007-2017:
-0.9%
Forecast
Federal Aviation
Administration
16
Cargo RTMs
Actual
Forecast
3.2%
International:
6.3%
Federal Aviation
Administration
17
2005-2006:
1.0%
2006-2007:
1.8%
2007-2017:
1.4%
Forecast
Federal Aviation
Administration
18
2005-2006:
2.5%
2006-2007:
3.1%
2007-2017:
3.2%
Forecast
Federal Aviation
Administration
19
Forecast
1.8%
Turbine:
6.4%
Federal Aviation
Administration
20
2005-2006:
-0.6%
2006-2007:
2.7%
2007-2017:
3.4%
Forecast
Federal Aviation
Administration
21
2005-2006:
-0.4%
2006-2007:
2.7%
2007-2017:
2.2%
Forecast
Federal Aviation
Administration
22
Forecast Risks
Terror attacks/Pandemic
Impact of high oil prices
Mainline carrier financial woes
Growth of VLJs and impact on workload
Sufficient Capacity
Federal Aviation
Administration
23
Forecast Summary
Slow growth in 2006, rebound in 2007,
return to historical rates afterwards
Demand continues to grow in line with
economy
Real yield continues to fall
Aircraft continue to get smaller
Workload gets higher
Federal Aviation
Administration
24